The show about nothing had everything and Cosmo was the finishing touch. Correct me if im wrong but isnt he a Freemason?

Ex, yes Bill Hader is great. Him and Seth Rogan as cops schooling ‘McLovin’ in Superbad is a classic.

The Deuce is about porn stars from 42nd street in 70s NYC climbing the ladder from the streets to success. Funny and poignant.

For the reverse perspective, here’s LIT:SILJ…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LIT%3ASILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75828863728&a=997311027

From a chart perspective I agree. In general you are right, but there is so much push into batteries that it doesn’t work here. The battery market will be larger than the Gold market with fewer lithium companies than silver companies

If you sell lithium now, you will miss a lifetime opportunity 🙃

Risk-reward should not be ignored. Let’s revisit LIT and SILJ around Christmas. 🥱

Good idea – what year ?

I think the battery bull market will last for many years. There will be setbacks for sure.

For me lithium is like uranium in the 90s, when Rick Rule made his hundred bagger, only without Rick

Write down the dollar price of LIT and SILJ and check them this December, 2021.
It is immaterial whether or not LIT has years left to rise since multi-month deep declines are normal in a bull market, especially in natural resources.

Good point….

Personally, I follow Matt the most in the Lithium and EV space because he actually knows it better than most pundits and knows who the key players are. This recent piece he put out on Seeking Alpha is very well done for those following the Lithium sector and the key miners within it.

______________________________________________________________________________

Top Ten Lithium Producers As IEA Forecasts A 13 To 42x Increase In Lithium Demand From 2020 To 2040

Jul. 22, 2021 – Matt Bohlsen – Seeking Alpha

A summary table by market cap of the top ten lithium producers:

Albemarle US$22.2b
Sociedad Quimica y Minera [SQM] US$13.41b
Ganfeng Lithium US$41.57b
Tianqi Lithium US$18.4b
Livent Corp. US$3.16b
Mineral Resources US$8.4b
Pilbara Minerals US$3.28b
Orocobre US$1.79b
Galaxy Resources US$1.47b
Advanced Metallurgical Group [AMG] US$1.04b

Lithium ETFs (not pure plays as hold some battery companies and EV stocks):

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT)
Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT)

Orocobre (ORE.AX) (ORL) (OROCF)/Galaxy Resources (GXY.AX) (GALXF) – Orocobre and Galaxy intend to do a friendly merger (if approved by shareholders).

If successful the combined entity would likely soon become a future top 5 lithium producer. Orocobre is building the Naraha lithium hydroxide plant (ORE share is 75%) and expanding production at their 66.5% owned Olaroz Mine (Argentina). Galaxy Resources 100% owns the Mt Cattlin lithium mine (Australia), and the advanced stage Sal de Vida Project (Argentina), as well as the James Bay Project (Canada).”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440600-top-ten-lithium-producers-as-iea-forecasts-a-13-to-42x-increase-in-lithium-demand-from-2020-to-2040?mail_subject=matt-bohlsen-top-ten-lithium-producers-as-iea-forecasts-a-13-to-42x-increase-in-lithium-demand-from-2020-to-2040&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

Joe Lowry, a former Livent director, is very knowledgeable and a good independent source. He does a regular podcast

https://www.globallithium.net/podcast

I was also listening to Justin Huhn interview recently either on Steve Penny’s (SilverChartist) channel or on Jake Ducey’s channel, and he was making a similar point that he feels after the run we’ve had in the Uranium stocks since late 2016, but especially over the last year, that the easiest money has now been made in the Uranium stocks. There is still upside of course for when spot, and more importantly term pricing, goes up to the $50’s and $60’s, but many miners are so forward looking that they got priced like that is where things already are. Also, based on the massive volume inflows over the last 6-9 months, it is clear that large institutions have not gotten positioned in the Uranium stocks for the remainder of the journey.

Some of the biggest news over the last year has been all the non-producing Uranium mining stocks (like Denison, UEC, Boss, Encore, Uranium Royalty Corp, etc…) buying strategic stockpiles of Uranium forward deliver contracts out of the spot markets. The other big news is that Sprott has taken over the Uranium Participation Fund, and will also be a buyer in the spot markets, just like Cameco and Ur-Energy have been as producing companies over the last 2 years. This has the effect of mopping up the rest of the supply on the spot markets, and now the utility companies are going to have to clean the birdcrap off their glasses and start seeing clearly that they are going to have to start the longer term off-take contracting cycle in the next 12-18 months. That is ultimately what will move the term pricing higher (which is far more important than the spot pricing anyway).

Ever Upward!

Dang. I will SO GLAD when we have the edit feature on this blog soon.

That was supposed to say “it is clear that the large institutions HAVE gotten positioned in the Uranium stocks for the remainder of the journey.”

The massive volume inflows from last year into this year that were many multiples higher than historic inflows for the last decade were a tipoff that many noted from John Quakes to Justin Huhn to company executives, and to anyone paying attention that has been in the Uranium sector for any length of time.

Ditto SPOT ON MATT……………

And SPOT ON…… on the other comment as well……….

True time-wise it does not change anything – but higher debt to gdp ratios mean gold will also top at higher levels. But US does not really have a choice – they inflate away to have room for additional financing (needed to move strategic production from china and for military spending). They know China needs to be dealt with in this decade – in 20 years its probably going to be too late.

That’s true, the dishonest default (inflation) is the only choice politically. If they knock the dollar down 90%, debt to gdp would become manageable even though nominal gdp would not simultaneously go up anywhere near the implied 10 times. It would be a big win for the balance sheet of USA, Inc. but would be very destructive to the vast majority of Americans’ standard of living. Retired people with assets will be hit the hardest on a percentage basis since virtually none will understand what’s happening and hedge for it in any way. Those who went to bonds to avoid the stock market bear of the 1970s were decimated in real terms and it will be the same this time.

Well everyone has to pay for poor political choices/corruption from the last decades. At least now dollar destruction is controlled and dollar is still the reserve currency. The real fun may come in 10 – 15 years when europe closes economic ties with china with india as a new cheap labour force supply. US would be done just like post colonial UK and without a single shot fired.

Not “everyone” should have to pay. Savers who’ve shunned debt and instant gratification have been forced to bear the majority of burden caused by the most irresponsible dirtballs’ actions for decades and their destruction is accelerating. When collectivists rule, everything is turned on its head. In a nutshell, evil becomes good, vice becomes virtue.
Dollar destruction is less controlled now than at any other time in the last four decades. Purchasing power is what counts, not performance relative to other currencies which are also being inflated away.

Relax Matthew this is still not the real socialism in US/EU 😉 We are not done yet as comrade Lenin used to say. We still need:
SM sharp correction > YCC >bounce >SM sharp correction >FED/ECB buying stocks>bounce >SM sharp correction >1k usd/eur /month guaranteed income >bounce
The rest of wealth will be mismanaged in 20 years by people who are students now – the same who are debating whether we have 101 or 103 genders and arguing whose lives matter most. What I am trying to say is we are not going to change this cycle- dollar will loose its reserve status just like italian republics>portugal>spain>holland>france>uk and its going to be painful. We are in the business of forecasting and investing not in deciding whats fair or not. If I lived 300 years ago in spain I would cursed at my king 3 times and moved to Amsterdam to be in the center of economic life instead of wasting time in falling Madrid. Good trading next week 😉

I am perfectly relaxed and your assertion that “this is not the real socialism in US/EU” is misguided.
“😉”

Daniella: I think her interviews have gotten better over time.

I’d agree David. I’ve actually always enjoyed Daniella’s interviews, but feel they have gotten even better over at Stansberry.

Do you own it Ex?

Yes I have a position in Skeena Charles.

As QH thinks that ESKYF may have several Skeena deposits on its property I think ESK has more upside than Skeena. We should find out this fall. But Skeena has less downside risk.

Hi Mike. I believe Skeena fairly valued at current levels based on $1800 gold, it’s ounces in the ground, and it’s current development stage at the PFS level. Having said that, I do believe their valuation has more upside with higher gold prices, and more importantly, if they can take their resource and grow it from 5.6 million ounces to 7 million ounces. Also, as they move closer to a construction decision next year, then that could be another catalyst. There is also that potential for a takeover from a Senior at a 30%-50% premium that would be another catalyst if/when that is ever announced.

It really comes down to someone’s reason for buying, holding, or selling an individual stock as to the decisions they should individually make about adding, holding, or trimming a stock. The vast majority of the Gold or Silver stocks will have more room to run higher if the metals prices run higher, or when sentiment shifts back to a more bullish posture, but the moves higher will be vastly different based on where the stocks are on the risk curve, how much unforeseen value can be created, and to a degree how much traction a story is getting with the investor community and institutional communities.

Some stocks like early-stage explorers are really geared towards the disproportionate rewards they can have in share price appreciation if they make a discovery, or for advanced explorers if they can expand on a discovery. If someone wants the most explosive moves higher in a resource stock, then the explorers can definitely offer those, but it comes with a very high risk, as most companies will fail to deliver an economic deposit, and most of the pops in explorers are based on hope and narrative of how large it could get, but then they drop when reality sets in that the company doesn’t have enough to make an economic deposit, or their may be logistic challenges/socio-environmental pushback/metallurgical issues/or dilution concerns as they perpetually raise money. Many explorers will be nothing more than short term parabolas that go up on initial enthusiasm, and then go back down just as quick when gravity returns.

For development stage companies like Skeena or Silvercrest, they’ve already had a lot of valuation creation from the drill bit, and have rewarded those in at lower levels as they’ve been some of the winners at the exploration game. These companies have larger valuations, but they are still expanding their resources and preparing for the path to production, and after their orphan phases most development stage companies tend to have a doubling in value as they hit their “golden runway” window on the final stretch from a construction decision to first pour.

We saw that with companies the moved successfully from exploration to development and then into production like Atlantic Gold, K92, Pure Gold, Northern Vertex, Steppe Gold, etc…. When the market locks on to a explorer making a move towards production, it can still be an exciting ride in the company during that phase. I believe Skeena is still in that phase.

Then there is a point at the commissioning of production where where most companies have some initial startup issues and growing pains (like what we’ve seen more recently with Pure Gold, Harte Gold, Northern Vertex, Steppe Gold, or almost every mine McEwen Mining has brought online, or like the continued challenges that Americas Gold & Silver have had with Relief Canyon. We also saw it in Pretium when it came online as a larger mine). For this reason, I generally lighten up some on a company near first pour (like I did with Pure Gold last December), then wait for the typical pullback, and then buy the company back 6 months later as it corrects(like I also did in Pure Gold last month and am considering on Steppe Gold).

There are the very rare exceptions like Atlantic Gold or K92 that just keep plowing higher even after commissioning of commercial production, but those are incredibly rare birds. In the case of Atlantic Gold their success led to a takeover, for a final premium and final move higher. In the case of K92 they’ve had several years of upward trajectory since going into production and have been one of the standout success stories.

So, Skeena is still in the golden runway in the move towards production, which is generally a good period for a company, and then as it moves toward production maybe it has the typical issues and challenges that many companies face at production or maybe they keep on sailing higher like Atlantic Gold and K92. Those kind of outcomes could be the path that Skeena takes in a best-case scenario, and that would imply much more upside, but nobody knows how it will go until we see the next 2-3 years play out.

We also don’t know what will happen to metals prices over that same time period, or whether we crater into a full on bear market, or break out to new highs in PMs as the monetary madness continues. There are too many variables to know how any stock will be valued in the next few years, and all we can do it make educated guesses today based on the risk/reward setup and act accordingly. I see 5.6 million ounces of value underpinning Skeena today, in the prolific Golden Triangle, and the company initiative to grow that 7 million. Since they’ve been successful up until this point, I’m happy to hold SKE and add on any future weakness, as I believe they’ll keep delivering on their initiatives. I also personally believe metals prices will be higher in 2 years than they are today, and believe Eskay Creek will be the 3rd largest mine in Canada in 3-4 years.

In my portfolio I’ve also got many smaller exploration stocks for the potential for outsized gains, and plenty of smaller and medium-sized producers that are cashflowing and growing at current metals prices. I believe both the explorers and producers offer more immediate upside than the developers. With the developers, like Skeena, I hold them for optionality on rising metals prices that make their economics far more attractive, for the gradual gains that can happen on their moves towards production, and for the greater potential of being taken over by one of the big boys as an exit strategy. If people want big immediate gains then the developers or royalty companies are not the best options, as they are more slow and steady gainers. The explorers offer the most immediate upside (providing that they hit extraordinary drill hits that surprise the market), and producers that can expand production and reduce costs can offer a similar surprise on any of their quarterly operational reports, and can also immediately monetize any rises in the metals prices. I’m a fan of having a mix of all of those types of companies in my portfolio.

Yes, I believe you are correct about that David, but will ask the next time we chat.