Short term gold technicals and big picture gold catalysts
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins us to first breakdown the short term charts for gold and GDX/GDXJ after the washout and rebound over the last 5 trading days. We then move to some big picture comments on what will be the key turning point for the precious metals to finally end this now year long downtrend.
Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and follow along with Jordan’s technical outlook.
This is a pretty interesting video from James Flanagan over at Gann Global Financial, where he discusses the much larger cycles and trends in the Gold market, and why he feels this recent bearish leg of the journey the last year has been necessary for the larger bull trend.
It is basically a teaser video invitation to register for his webinar tomorrow afternoon, but even what he shared relating to the larger gold bull analogs of the past was good food for thought.
“panic out of long positions”….. good take on historic replay….
It makes me think of that scene from Couples Retreat with Vince Vaughn where he’s being circled by sharks and yelling “You said not to Panic! You said not to Panic!”
Michael Boutros on Gold/Silver (34:25) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBCIoJYBBt8
Interesting opening comments, considering that he is ‘strict’ TA guy.
Hi BDC – I just wrote you back on yesterdays blog about how your process noted all the saturation yesterday (the 10th) before the rebound today. Thanks for your contributions.
Also, I picked up a little more Jaguar today as well, as you noted doing yesterday in a different discussion on there.
Cheers!
Thanks much! ‘Power moves’ became more important because summer trading, until yesterday, did not reveal downside saturation points. Yesterday’s action “made my day”: https://tinyurl.com/apjx59rc
Saturation only: https://tinyurl.com/2ewt53t4
Match with stock and ETF turning points, etc.
(Also, note well June!!)
Correction: It was Tuesday’s action, but as acted upon yesterday (Wednesday).
Waiting is the hardest part. As Livermore said, it’s the waiting that makes him the most money.
ditto terry………..
Gold bull is over, August high was it, it made its run over last five years.
If it was in bull mkt it wouldn’t be making lower highs and lower lows for a full year now. Big boys got out and as usual the diehard gold bugs got left holding bag on all hype on miner’s. Even Bitcoin is making a run and gold is fading away.
Yep, you’re right. Time to fold em’ up and pack it in.
Gold is going to be worthless and all the miners are going out of business here at $1750 Gold and $23.50 Silver. Put a fork in this sector for the rest of our lives. đ
The only thing left to do at this point is go all in on Dodgecoin or Tether, and diversify into a couple of meme stocks for good measure.
All joking aside, I did take out an unusual position in the Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares: NYSE Arca: (CWEB)
It’s down over 80% since it February highs due to China cracking down on their own tech companies, which has left many generalist investors holding the bag. I decided to buy some of those bags off them today, (which used to be the latest fashion trend, and now they’re in the trash bin). The thesis is that at this point, most of the downside has been priced in, and one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure.
That’s brave. Those leveraged funds scare me so I bought some LEAPS on individual Chinese tech companies.l
I’m not good with options as they scare me, so I figured a leveraged fund to Chinese tech that was the flavor of the day the end of last year into Q1 of this year, but that has been pulverized over the last few months, looks like an interesting risk/reward set up at present. It may prove to be more fool-hearty than brave, but taking contrarian bets like this has paid off for me in a number of sectors in the past. Fingers crossed that the Chinese government doesn’t do anything too much more drastic.
thanks for the earlier response on ngd Ex.
You probably realize more than most that overbought can last longer than anyone expects, and oversold can last longer than anyone expects. That’s the case now with overbought equities and oversold metals. Times like now, best to watch the paint dry.
Yes, agreed Jonsyl; these conditions can stay overbought for longer than people expect, and the general markets have run longer and higher than most would have expected back after the 2008/2009 Great Financial crisis to present.
As you eluded to, there is nothing wrong with waiting for more direction or a change in the trend (watching the paint dry) before taking more action. Everyone has different investment goals, time horizons, capital & time to deploy, risk tolerance levels, and strategies, and their own unique path and process.
Good comments and may your trading be prosperous.
Ex,
Donât take things personal when another blogger or visitor has his point of view. Some of the things we can ask is why do you think that way? What are your findings etc! Just my two cents. I donât mean to come at you or anyone else but sometimes itâs ok to acknowledge others and there thought process. No one is saying you need to except it..
Many of us have learned that since august high of last year, there ainât not one guru including the ones you interview which is good for thought.
As always all the best!
Glen
Thanks Glenfidish, but I didn’t take anything personal, and am always open to others point of view and their reasoning behind it. We often learn much more in getting someone’s opinion that is different than ours.
My response above was clearly joking around and I don’t believe Gold is going to be worthless, nor are gold and silver miners going to go out of business with Gold in the $1700’s and Silver in the $23-$24 range. In addition, if one can’t see the joke in the comment to go all in on Dodgecoin, Tether, and Meme Stocks then they need to lighten up a little.
Joking around a bit in good fun with a poster that has repeatedly come on a trolled Chris Vermeulen and Jordan Roy Byrne to the point where one doesn’t come on that much anymore and the other is sick of his comments, combined with we’ve had to remove his insulting and character defaming remarks, and is now just trolling the PM sector, seems like fair play at this point. Nobody said anyone was a guru, but people shouldn’t attack the very guests we bring on the show. Period.
That’s some good food for thought as well. đ
Hey Glen……… Hope all is well with you and yours, glad to hear from you…..
Interesting things happening in the Bazaar World …… of Lock Downs…
Keep safe….. and keep some gold bars in the safe….
Ex;
Good response to the poster that is consistently negative. Hate speech in any form is never productive and demonstrates a certain deficiency when attempting to exchange thoughts and ideas. Hate speech should not be tolerated and the Guests on this site should not be attacked just because they do not conform with ones personal beliefs, which often could be misguided. Communication must contain mutual respect or it becomes unproductive and destructive to the learning process. Excelsior is an excellent communicator and as a result he is an outstanding teacher. He keeps the doors open for learning and development and has an excellent knowledge base superior to most. Not only can we learn from his technical knowledge of the mining area, but we can also learn from his tolerance and empathy when making that knowledge available to us. My 2 cents.
Thanks for that response David, and I appreciate your thoughts and insights as well as everyone else’s contributions here at the KE Report, both in the show and on the blog forum.
There are occasionally rogue individuals that show up that are not really here to contribute to the community, and instead feed off insulting, attacking, or lashing out at others, and rarely if ever share ideas that benefit the community. To be clear, disagreeing or having a different point of view are fine and respectful debates or laying out a different opinions are of course encouraged, but it always amazes us that they feel the need to attack, lie, or slander the guests we bring on that are here for free investing their time, experience, and knowledge with all of us.
We are all here to share insights (and sometimes a few laughs) with one another, as it makes us all better informed. Ever upward!
Gold among the worst 2021 investments: Allstarcharts.com founder J.C. Parets
Thomas Hum – Wed, August 11, 2021
“In light of goldâs (GC=F) flash crash on Monday, with the commodity dropping to its lowest price since March at $1,730.13 an ounce in New York by late afternoon, some investors may be growing wary about its efficacy as an inflation hedge in the near term. According to J.C. Parets, Allstarcharts.com founder and chief strategist, gold has become one of the worst investments over the past year.”
âNobody wants your rocks, right? I mean, that’s the theme ⌠the gold bugs have come up with every story under the sun as to why gold should go up, and it doesn’t,â Parets told Yahoo Finance Live. âIn fact, over the last year, youâd be hard pressed to find a worse investment over the last year [than] gold.â
“As inflation reaches the highest levels seen since 2008, gold prices have fallen over 16% in a year â down over $300 from an August 2020 peak of $2,069 per ounce. Just a year ago, institutions like Bank of America (BAC) projected that goldâs value could skyrocket to as much as $3,000.”
So much for that SILJ:GDX bear flag. No, it hasn’t technically failed yet but I am confident that it will.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p01800145842&a=1005949937
I am not sold yet on the bear flag not being still valid, but agree one more day like today and it will be invalidated. Gold just hit resistance at 1760 and turned back down so it looks doubtful we will get confirmation today.
Yes, the bear flag is definitely still valid since the pattern hasn’t failed yet, as I pointed out. In addition to that MA resistance, there’s also Bollinger Band and pivot resistance to “help” the bearish pattern.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=11&id=p57705657870
The whole picture (going beyond price action) made me confident about the pattern ultimately failing so I decided to share that as a “for what it’s worth” rather than wait until the picture matched my confidence.
I am still confident that the pattern will fail. So, if it doesn’t, it will be very clear how wrong I was.
SILJ:GDX fell to “P” pivot support after hitting “R1” pivot resistance on the 60 minute chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=t3119345337c&r=1628778414794&cmd=print
Thanks for the charts. Man this is a slow grind down. Brutal. Looks to me like the sideways action could go on form months or it could end tomorrow. As Spanky use to say, who knows! : )
The Hacker Behind A Giant Cryptocurrency Heist Is Returning Stolen Funds
Jon Fingas¡ Wed, August 11, 2021
“Someone just perpetrated one of the largest cryptocurrency heists known to date… and appears to be having second thoughts. The Block and CNBC report that a hacker stole about $611 million in Ethereum, Shiba Inu and other digital currencies from the decentralized Poly Network finance platform on August 10th by exploiting a vulnerability. Less than a day later, however, the intruder sent a token indicating they were “ready to surrender” and started returning millions in funds.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/poly-network-cryptocurrency-heist-returned-funds-133025946.html
While we often hear about the security of the crypto currencies as one the attributes which attracts investment capital, it is important to note that there have been plenty of crypto exchanges and finance platforms that have been hacked over the years, stealing investors cryptos stored on these platforms.
With all the crypto thefts, you can see why the government and bullion banks want to do away with paper and coins and go to digital.
120-year Chart Shows Commodities Have Never Been This Undervalued
Frik Els | August 11, 2021 – mining.com
“In its Q2 wrap-up, commodities investment house Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates poses the question: Natural resources â Uninvestable assets or unprecedented opportunity?”
“To help answer the question, the Wall Street firm put together a 120-year chart comparing commodity prices to the Dow Jones Industrials going back to 1901.”
Despite the uptick in metals and mineral prices over the past year, there is still a yawning gap and âreal assets have never been as undervalued relative to financial assets,â according to the authors.
“The chart shows other major bottoms occurred in 1929, 1969, and 1999 and like those cycle nadirs present an âexcellent time to establish real asset positions,â according to G&R:”
âPrior catalysts have all been monetary related. This time likely as well.â
https://www.mining.com/120-year-chart-shows-commodities-have-never-been-this-undervalued/
Never been 7 billion people running around with face masks….. stupid running with stupid..
so, we should not be surprised that the.. “Commodities Have Never Been This Undervalued”
đ
Have a great day………….
Codelco Miners Vote To Strike As Copper Disruption Threats Mount
Bloomberg News | August 11, 2021
“Workers at the Andina mine in central Chile rejected owner Codelcoâs wage offer, opting instead to begin a strike that may further tighten global copper supplies.”
“A stoppage at Andina, a mid-sized mine that produced 184,500 metric tons last year, adds to labor tensions in top exporter Chile, where workers at a mine owned by JX Nippon Mining & Metals started a strike this week and union members at the giant Escondida mine are voting on a final wage offer from owner BHP Group.”
“Until now Codelco, the worldâs biggest copper producer, had avoided strikes in the current hectic wage negotiation cycle in Chile, where sky-high metal prices have emboldened workers amid an uptick in resource nationalism spurred by pandemic-related economic woes.”
https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-miners-vote-to-strike-as-copper-disruption-threats-mount/
Labor Woes Spread From Copper To Lithium In Chile
Bloomberg News | August 11, 2021
“Chileâs labor woes are spreading from copper to lithium, as members of a union at one of Albemarle Corp.âs sprawling brine-processing operations walked off the job.”
“The lithium labor stoppage comes at a time of tightening global supplies of the metal used in rechargeable batteries, and adds to strike risks in Chileâs giant copper industry where three mines are facing disruptions.”
https://www.mining.com/web/labor-woes-spread-from-copper-to-lithium-in-one-of-top-suppliers/
(LAC) Lithium Americas: Infrastructure Bill And Court Decision Ignites The Stock
Aug. 11, 2021 – Austin Craig – Seeking Alpha
– Denying Thacker Pass would have a negative impact on lithium investment in America.
– A potential lithium investment freeze would be detrimental to the national interests of America and against the lithium aspirations of the Biden administration.
– Having won the preliminary injunction, the Thacker Pass lithium mine can move forward and this serves as a go-forth initial sign.
I guess I don’t understand the believe you guys in your belief that gold and silver are safe harbors in times of generally collapsing share prices.
Here’s REAL history:
https://i1.wp.com/www.newlowobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/image-21.png
Argonaut Gold Inc. (AR) (ARNGF) CEO Peter Dougherty on Q2 2021 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
Aug. 11, 2021
“What makes Argonaut unique is that we really check all the boxes, whether you’re looking for operations that provide cash flow, or you are seeking a growth story through development, or you are focused on the exploration sizzle, Argonaut provides all of the above in one package.”
Zijin Mining up 4% in SS and HK on volume over .75B shares Thursday.
PM slam (washout?) this morning as Dollar Index threatens to cover its upside hidden gap, or even breakout. I’m pulling for the downside gap: https://postimg.cc/RJLr8dVf
Sold JAGGF
I guess Doc wasn’t buying.
I don’t know why you would sell it today. It looks good to go.
Could well be; however, the Dollar will more likely cover the upside gap now: https://postimg.cc/3yn1M9SH.
The 30 minute chart is better: https://postimg.cc/v4WV57c9
Hash red = 78.6% retracement, which this charting app doesn’t show.
I think it’s much better to trade the gold or GLD chart since they reflect the situation versus the real dollar and not the dollar index/dollar vs euro.
It does seem that you probably have a very short term win on your hands since I’m guessing you could already buy your shares back a little cheaper. Yesterday’s move has already been retraced 50%.
Gold bottomed in December 2015 while miners did a month later (lows can be enigmatic). Its spike must hold here, but the miners may dip some more. We’ll see soon enough.
SLV still hasn’t completely filled its big December gap but has filled enough that it could turn up anyway.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p46160873987&a=870048854
The counter intuitive orchestrated attack on the miners continues. Not sure what prices they are looking for, but it seems it is time to cover their short action and buy. The price levels should be at “gift” positions already.
waiting for the ultimate time to add metals like most here. However find it troubling that the gold / miners only find relief when spx has a laboured uptick and then spill with any temporary spx retracement. If and when spx has it’s long-awaited sell-off, this pattern calls for another significant gold/miners sell off.
Best to continue and watch paint dry.
The most vaccine-hesitant group of all are the most educated…
https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-vaccine-hesitant-education-group-of-all-phds/
“We made a big mistake. We didn’t realize it until now,” said Byram Bridle, a viral immunologist and associate professor at University of Guelph, Ontario. “We thought the spike protein was a great target antigen, we never knew the spike protein itself was a toxin and was a pathogenic protein. So by vaccinating people we are inadvertently inoculating them with a toxin.”
https://nationaldailyng.com/we-made-a-big-mistake-covid-vaccine-spike-protein-travels-from-injection-site-can-cause-organ-damage/
Peer-reviewed U.S. Study: mRNA Vaccine May Cause âTragic And Even Catastrophicâ Side Effects
https://humansarefree.com/2021/08/mrna-vaccine-may-cause-tragic-catastrophic-side-effects.html
I don’t know how long this shitshow will continue. Maybe time for me to join spanky/paul and start posting my frustration out.
I won’t be tempted to join you unless gold takes out the March low. For now, I see this cleanout as being inversely proportional to the next intermediate move higher.
Whether we get moving tomorrow or after Labor Day, the odds look good for surprising upside.
Silver’s outperformance of gold since gold topped last August remains a huge deal with very bullish implications, in my opinion.
SLV:GLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=13&id=p88663148266&a=1008354500
This is the first low for GDX in about 18 months that made it to the daily S2 pivot support (it came within one cent today).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p47433694528
I have to say, the deepness of this correction is something for the books, I didn’t anticipate being down 30 percent on some my positions.
Matthew-
What do you have to say about P Karim’s chart on Silver?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/I8rbpMGQ-Silver-s-Monthly-Inflation-Adjusted-Chart/
I would ask Karim why he uses the CPI instead of gold to measure silver’s real performance. Even if the CPI hadn’t become as corrupted as it is today, it would still be inferior to gold as a measure of monetary debasement, especially on a monthly scale. Karim chose the blue pill.
The silver:gold monthly MACD and TSI both look better than silver:cpi but it is clear that we don’t want silver to plunge significantly from here versus gold and remain at a dramatic new low for a monthly close.
Let’s see if the “Print” feature at stockcharts will make this monthly chart accessible to everyone:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99614075167&a=1008398973&r=1628797804840&cmd=print
On the following quarterly chart, notice that silver:gold didn’t deliver a new MACD buy signal until the fourth quarter of last year. That’s exactly ten years after the last one. Even the great move of 2016 didn’t produce one but it was close. That “close but no cigar” action turned out to be prophetic since silver didn’t hit its post 2011 bear market low until four years after gold had already done so.
Not surprisingly, silver beat gold by about three times as much as it did in 2016 and is just getting warmed up.
We are now at the end of the beginning of a massive new bull market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=35&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4504832419c&a=1008412064&r=1628799437385&cmd=print
Fantastic news MatthewâŚyour positive streak is on a roll. I like it.
Can anybody tell me why I can buy Irving at $1.02 US a share? Have I missed something?
All bears here. Sentiment is washed out. The TA here is too easy. I think we are at the bottom now. Everybody is looking at the same charts and drawing the same conclusions. That says they may be wrong.