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The Real Gold Bull Market Hasn’t Even Started Yet

Cory댊
August 18, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins us with a quick comment on the short term action in gold and gold stocks, as the stocks continue to under perform. We then focus a lot on the big picture for gold, in terms of bull vs bear market and what catalyst is needed to move the PMs higher. There is a lot of semantics when it comes to bull and bear markets but it’s the big picture that matters for most investors.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

Discussion
57 Comments
    Aug 18, 2021 18:10 PM

    Anybody’s here that is so insane to dare buy Triumph Gold (Tig.to) and America Silver (USAS)? 🙂

      Aug 18, 2021 18:09 PM

      Marco, I want to buy Triumph Gold and USA, but I am all out of “AMMO”! There are just so many great buys that you can’t love them all. Thanks for reminding me about two great stocks. LOL! DT

        Aug 18, 2021 18:12 PM

        I sold a few more companies for tax loss purposes this week, to continue to wash out capital gains from earlier in the year, and raise more funds. However, my strategy is to hold those funds for Friday, Monday, and Tuesday when many of the tax loss “wash periods” are up and I can buy back some of the positions I sold a month ago, and at a much better price point in many of them.

      Aug 18, 2021 18:10 PM

      I added just a little bit to USAS Americas Gold & Silver today on their big sell down, but yes, it may very well be insane.

        Aug 18, 2021 18:16 PM

        If a company has great drill results, first you here YAWN, then you think nobody cares, the stock price comes out slightly above their last day selling price than it closes lower for the day on tiny volume. This is a contrarians dream. DT

          Aug 18, 2021 18:32 PM

          Yes, agreed DT. We are seeing many companies put out good news and it turns into a liquidity event, which is typically bear market action. We’ve talked to a number of companies that are seeing the same patterns play out when they release news, that would have sent their stock up multiple-fold a year ago, and now it is a muted bump or a selling event. I’d imagine that there are likely a number of companies that don’t even want to cast their pearls amongst the swine right now, and hold off on putting out good news until the market actually cares.

          Dave Erfle mentioned that same thing in his interview yesterday where he saw 3 different companies put out good drill news that was then used as a liquidity event for bag holders to exit their positions. However, it should be noted that there are 2 sides to every trade (a seller and a buyer), so to your point, the contrarians are the ones accumulating. In that same interview yesterday Dave E. also mentioned that “one investors tax-loss trash is another investors excellent entry-point treasure.”

          It may still get worse before it gets better, but overall this is tough luck for the mining sector, where more juniors than ever got cashed up a year ago, have their biggest drill campaigns going in many years, and now they are releasing the results into an ambivalent to bearish marketplace. The irony runs thick….

            Aug 18, 2021 18:44 PM

            Yes, Ex, it will probably get worse before it gets better—there are still monthly charts of good companies that show they will decline farther. I can’t believe that gold hasn’t gotten hit harder considering the smashing the miners have received—-that tells me that is yet to happen. Many of these stocks will double bottom with the lows of March 2020 while others are already in the process of taking those lows out. As mentioned, the last 5 months of the year will reveal some solid low prices for the miners. When we will lows in those double bottoms, don’t expect gold to zoom higher along with the miners the way it happened in March of 2020. We will have to build a solid base before the next major move higher. Great buying opportunities coming up in the future.

            Aug 18, 2021 18:57 PM

            Hi Doc. Yeah, good comments there, and it seems as if the miners are ignoring the recent snapback in Gold from the $1677 low getting retested 2 weeks back up to the $1780’s. (yesterday the yellow metal even shot up to $1797 and yet most of the gold miners continue to plumb lower levels, shrugging it off).

            If the miners are to be seen as a leading indicator, then the recent bearish action (especially in the junior miners) would imply further pricing pressure in the metals is on the menu.

            To your point, there has been a lot of chart damage inflicted over the last year to gold, but especially to the mining stocks that many of us trade and invest in, so it will take some time to build that base you spoke of.

            As mentioned a few times recently, I sold a few dozen partial or full positions in gold and silver stocks over the last month (the majority of them in mid July) to wash out capital gains in my trading account (mostly from the Uranium, Lithium, PGMs, Copper, and Cryptos trading from earlier in the year, but also some solid swing trades on PM stocks throughout the year). My wash period is just about up in the first waves of those so I’m still going to add some of those positions back starting on on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday to get some more dogs back in the fight at these depressed levels. I’m fully aware and prepared, that we may still have lower for longer in some of them, so I may scale in to them over time. Still I’m looking forward to adding back or adding to a number of positions I’ve had reduced or no exposure to for the last month, and will take it from there. Cheers!

            Aug 18, 2021 18:49 PM

            Ex. as the old adage goes, one has to pay attention when good news as with gold producers fundamentals and earnings, results with them declining, same with bad news being ignored and resulting in them rising. For quite a while, no amount of pumping gold and its producers has had the desired outcome. It may be an aberation or simple disinterest, or a signal for something far worse to come. best to watch the paint dry for now. Little opportunity cost lost by that.

            Aug 18, 2021 18:31 PM

            Yes, good points Jonsyl, on the good news and good earnings being selling events for the last few months. There are times when it is better to just hold and watch the paint dry.

            In my case, I’ll just be getting repositioned on Friday/Monday/Tuesday in the stocks I want to keep as core positions in my portfolio; that I sold or trimmed for tax loss purposes a month ago. In almost every case I’ll be getting back in at much lower prices than I sold them in mid July, because the miners have continued to correct down hard over the last month. After getting repositioned and getting my ducks in a row, then I’ll join you in watching the paint dry before doing any more buying 🙂

            If the selling really gets much more extreme and if the PMs really fall out of bed even harder over the next month or two, then I’ll likely bite the bullet and pull money out of deep savings to deploy into that kind of weakness, but will need to see the severity of it. Personally, I’m of the opinion that as long as gold puts in a low above the Nov 19th $1446 and March 2020 pandemic crash of $1450, then that will be higher low and the larger bull market is still intact.

            Having said that, if that $1673-$1677 support level (from both March the double bottom and fishing line selloff 2 weeks back – tested 3 times ) does finally break to the downside…. then at that point I’d sum up of the recent move from the August high of $2089 as cyclical bear market, within the larger secular bull market and look for the lower $1600’s to the $1550 level Dave E. mentioned to take any more serious purchasing action.

            Ever Upward!

    Aug 18, 2021 18:29 PM

    “For every child that dies from covid, a hundred will die from the vaccine.”
    https://rumble.com/vl4u7t-dr.-zev-zelenko-slays-globalists-exposes-global-genocidal-event.html

      Aug 18, 2021 18:06 PM

      For those with jab remorse, the doctor in the video above provides hope.

    Aug 18, 2021 18:54 PM

    It’s been a long time since SILJ made a new 52 week low but it did so today as it finally took out its September low. Notice the significant RSI bullish divergence since the oversold low one month ago…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p00104445852&a=726315882

    Aug 18, 2021 18:01 PM

    Every new price low for GDX vs QQQ since June has come with a higher RSI low and the declining fork support continues to hold…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p12435970420&a=978546851

      Aug 18, 2021 18:19 PM

      Richard/Doc, every time it is the same old same old, be cautious out there, the bottom isn’t in, there is base building happening, we look to be going lower. I have been reading these posts for years and to me investors need to decide for them self, the experts are often wrong. For me, Matthew is the exception to the rule when it comes to chart analysis. Sorry, I just have to express what I am seeing. Sometimes you must just cut to the quick about what you see. DT

    Aug 18, 2021 18:29 PM

    Worst trader in the world just dumped a bunch of paper contracts in gold. Guess he couldn’t wait til London. Starting early tonight.

    Aug 18, 2021 18:34 PM

    Worst trader in the world just dumped a bunch of paper gold contracts to get the worst price possible. Couldn’t wait until London opened, so maybe wants to compound his stupid trading losses all night ling. Let us see how much of his unlimited funds he loses tonight to suppress price.

    Aug 18, 2021 18:46 PM

    Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees “Bigger Inflation Surge”

    August 18, 2021

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger

    Aug 18, 2021 18:58 PM

    Meanwhile… the US Dollar index is strengthening again, back up to 93.47

    This Dollar strength is a headwind to most of the metals:

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

      Aug 18, 2021 18:01 PM

      While inflation will likely be the longer term trend, this recent action with a strong dollar and falling commodities is more deflationary in nature.

        Aug 19, 2021 19:55 AM

        EX, Prior to The Great Depression in the 1930’s commodity prices were kept high by pools, there was a wheat pool in Canada, a coffee pool in Brazil, a sugar pool in Cuba, a wool pool in Australia. In the last twenty years and in particular the last ten years commodity prices have been buoyed by a very large amount of demand and buying from China. Maybe what we are seeing is China slowing down to the point that commodity prices can no longer still be supported. If that is the case what we are seeing is deflationary. DT

          BDC
          Aug 19, 2021 19:24 AM

          China allowing for a decline in US consumer spending?

          Aug 19, 2021 19:35 PM

          DT good points on the commodities pools of yesteryear.

          While China was operating as it’s own giant commodities pool for the last 2 decades, there is still a large global stage. The rest of Asia like Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, Russia, and Japan are still expanding their manufacturing and need quite a bit of raw materials, and there is still the European, US, Canadian, and Australian demand for modern tech and industry, not to mention a developing world in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and the ex-soviet bloc countries that are still electrifying many areas and will need Copper, Silver, Nickel, Lithium, Uranium, etc….

          As for food, the growing (and hungry) world population will only force demand and prices higher and higher.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:27 AM

    Rally Time………. 🙂

    What about gold’s COTs – are they conducive to a rally? On gold’s latest COT chart we can see that Commercial short positions and Large Spec long positions are at their lowest levels for at least a year (jointly with a date in April) which shows lack of interest that typically precedes a rally.

    https://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2021-08-14

    BDC
    Aug 19, 2021 19:44 AM

    Power & Saturation : https://tinyurl.com/apjx59rc
    In process (per shaded date). Levels could increase.

      BDC
      Aug 19, 2021 19:50 AM

      Related (in process) : https://tinyurl.com/46mterc6

      BDC
      Aug 19, 2021 19:35 AM

      Hopefully we’re digging a slit trench, and not a tunnel to China!

    Aug 19, 2021 19:45 AM

    That little H&S top in the Canadian dollar that I warned about on Monday did activate and has slightly overshot my guesstimated target.

    On August 16, 2021 at 6:05 pm,
    Matthew says:
    It seems we might have a funny looking little H&S top in the Canadian dollar. If so, it projects to about 78.33…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880690701&a=579387550

    Aug 19, 2021 19:00 AM

    Jaguar is simply been beat. There is a dime gap down at 2.54…or .80 cent lower
    Thoughts?

      Aug 19, 2021 19:02 AM

      * 2.54 US

        BDC
        Aug 19, 2021 19:15 AM

        At support. Note well: US Dollar.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:03 AM

    Added 60% to Big Ridge. Mike Gentile has bought in as well as Doc Jones. Both are great research analysts. Also added Labrador as intent by powers that be is to take down miners whether good news or not. Should have added to Emerita as they had a great “confirming” drill report supporting Doc Jones #s concerning historic data. Todays drill report ignored as it doesn’t fit with the agenda in the alternative universe.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:05 AM

    Added “to” Labrador as already owned. Again, good drill results yesterdaythat not appreciated by the bad guys.

      Aug 19, 2021 19:14 AM

      Update!

      The BPGDM is perfectly in line with what I discussed probably over two months ago if not less. To rephrase I mentioned back then that in order for this bull to really take off we would need to see a reading in the 15-25 region more so around 20. Folks for the ones who enjoy my post, if this reading gets anywhere close to those targets and gold/miners take another beating that is a good area to go in heavy. We are getting close imo just some more work to do.

      Glen

        Aug 19, 2021 19:17 AM

        Thanks Glen. Hope for the future.

          Aug 19, 2021 19:24 AM

          Thanks David! I really believe so.. I’m not worried

    Aug 19, 2021 19:14 AM

    Another dump of 3 large candles shortly after open against gold. They don’t seem to be able to stop the illegal interference. My expectation is that the the bar will be under-stocked at Jackson Hole.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:14 AM

    The guy that penned this article thinks gold will go up as a result of the fundamentals he writes about. However, this is why gold is going to drop like a rock.

    A very interesting read.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/extinction-gold-derivatives?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    Aug 19, 2021 19:22 AM

    Chartser I think the overall beating starting obviously last August of which many investors including in here have been in denial fighting the trend. But I would tend to disagree that it will be over or Armageddon with the minors and gold. This is the takedown that is required before the blast off which gold and the minors will lead the way as they know The money being printed will be unprecedented. For the first time since I can remember the conservative party here in Canada is willing to blow it up and spend like they never have before. We are very close to a bottom.

    With the speed of the takedown many resistance lines are being broken and projections lower as anticipated are becoming reality fairly quickly. Impact silver is headed to my .29/.31 Target. Looks to me like brixton going to .9-.11.

    As mentioned these are my lowest targets and we are getting there very fast! I would not be One bit surprised if this month or next month marks the final law for these minors and different to docs opinion I Believe we will go up as quickly as we came down mind you stairclimbing at times.

    Glen

    Aug 19, 2021 19:39 AM

    SILJ finally made it to the fork support that it couldn’t reach a month ago…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p24740987416&a=968712905

      Aug 19, 2021 19:46 AM

      Hook up the dogs and let us get this sled down the road.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:40 AM

    Hi Glen,

    That article I posted (for the second time) explains the new regulations (I’ve personally have been waiting on for years) that will cause a complete economic rebalance is all asset classes. But in this case, gold will drop hard as a result.

    The monthly chart indicators reflect much more downside to come. At least 3 more months.
    The weekly chart indicators are screaming of a huge move. That move will be to the downside. For the last two or three years I’ve been following a long term Fibonacci reading.
    It says gold will hit near 1050 or 860. I have no doubt we will see those one of those numbers.

    After the bottom is in, we should see a long term bull. I hope that we see a long term bull, anyway.
    Read that article thoroughly. It tells you the deal.

      Aug 19, 2021 19:15 AM

      Glen you seem to be in a progressive state of panic. Earlier post today that we are close to a bottom to 1050 or 860 gold price. for me at least, that analysis gives me some hope, in the meantime best to watch

        Aug 19, 2021 19:53 AM

        I think you have the wrong glen buddy lol. I’ve been consistent with my lower targets and there is not one percent of panic but just sharing my thoughts of the aggressiveness of the take down and how the miners are heading to long term lows quickly which can mean a low or final low is very possible. Go back and read. I never mentioned a thing of 1050 or850 that was charts.

        Glen

      Aug 19, 2021 19:50 AM

      Charts,

      With all due respect you have been on a fib Retracement for over 10 years wanting 680. Although I will never say never I find your targets 99% not forth coming. I just don’t see that scenario. This would imply deflation of assets and I don’t see home prices coming down my friend in fact there hotter then ever here I’m Ontario. 4 th wave boom lol they can’t keep up with lumbar.

      Glen

    Aug 19, 2021 19:44 AM

    It took about 7 months but SLV:GLD has finally reached its 38.2% Fib retracement…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p29636563909&a=1008354500

      Aug 19, 2021 19:48 AM

      I publicly declare that 38.2% is enough…think that will work?

        Aug 19, 2021 19:06 AM

        Yes! THANK YOU 🙏🏻

        Aug 19, 2021 19:28 AM

        Good the needlepoint club broke up early today.

          Aug 19, 2021 19:48 AM

          I hate when that happens 😒

      Aug 19, 2021 19:16 AM

      it’s called death by a thousand cuts

        Aug 19, 2021 19:22 AM

        That’s right. When the market can’t scare you out, it attempts to wear you out.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:25 AM

    SLV has filled its August 13th gap which is visible on the intraday charts…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=11&id=t3306282886c&r=1629390233373&cmd=print

      Aug 19, 2021 19:27 AM

      Well that didn’t work. It was supposed to be a 60 minute chart.

        Aug 19, 2021 19:29 AM

        I thought it was me. That sucker was big.

    Aug 19, 2021 19:47 AM

    SILJ just reversed precisely at its S2 pivot support (same as S3 if using Fibonacci pivots) on the 15 minute and “smaller” charts.