Gold back above $1,800 – Making sense of the volatility in the metals
Robert Sinn, better known as Goldfinger joins us to share his thoughts on the rebound in gold and the round trip from around $1,835 down to $1,675 and now back to $1,800. Even the stocks are bouncing back today. We discuss the price action in both gold and the gold stocks and how the upcoming Fed action will drive price.
Hi Silverdollar. I’m not sure what Gann Global thinks of this bounce, but James Flanagan was getting bullish on the setup and felt the flash crash down that tested the $1677 level for a third time was the low, and expected a move up from there.
I had posted this video from James at Gann on Friday’s blog that outlines the technical picture:
________________________________________________________________________
Gann Global Financial Video Update In The Metals:
James Flanagan – 8-19-2021 #TechnicalAnalysis
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2021/08/21-08-19-Webinar-or-Video-Offer-Is-Open-MF-2.php
Silverdollar brought that to our attention last Thursday. I think he’s looking for “subscriber only” info today. I can’t help with that but I sure like what I see very much.
On August 19, 2021 at 11:56 am,
Silverdollar says:
Gann Global is expecting a most probable turn any day. When it turns, and it will, don’t expect then to purchase the low……….it will be well above where you can likely get it today. JMO
Oh. Yeah, I don’t know then, as I just post the free public content James sends out.
I would imagine he like what he is seeing very much, as it validates the technical set up he laid out last week. It would be nice to see some follow through buying for the balance of this week and nice weekly candle by Friday, so we’ll see how it goes.
Dead cat bounce in PMs.
Something to be sold, not bought.
$1,600 gold and $19 silver by mid October.
Not sure about PGMs, but $850 Platinum looks like it’s in the cards.
Palladium is a tough one… not sure how that thing will go. If anything it could be the only PM that might not get hurt due to it’s almost bullet-proof price action for the past couple years.
Of course, the PM stocks will bet bombed, brutally.
Lot’s of tax loss selling in November and early December will present some extreme bottom fishing opportunities for anyone bold enough, and solvent enough, to take advantage of the situation.
It’s possible this is just a dead cat bounce that should be sold into, but also quite probable that this is a continuation of the rebound in the PMs we saw all of last week.
The PM stocks have already been bombed out bad for months, and wise investors used those low prices in late June & throughout July & earlier this month in August to already do their tax loss sales, and then get repositioned at a lower cost basis. There may still be more tax loss sales to come at end of year, especially if the metals remain under pressure in the medium term, but we just saw 2-3 months of liquidation in the miners, and the people on the buying side of those trades are likely positioning for the longer term, so that is in strong hands.
As for today’s action it is significant that with the metals only up 1-2% that most of the junior miners rallied 4%-10% today, and even the majors and mid-tiers rallied well today outperforming the moves in the metals with GDX up 4.2%, GDXJ up 5.5%, SIL up 4.67% and SILJ up 6.87%.
I was buying today in a few more of my tax loss sales from a month ago, now that the wash period is over: Impact Silver, Pure Gold, Excellon, GR Silver, Kootenay, and in the battery space Electrovaya. In addition, after a really great run, I’ve temporarily sold out of my Orocobre position to book the gain.
Was able to get +5.5% today and sold Silver Sands as a tax loss as it was a small position. Looking to add it to either Granite Creek, Banyan, Bitterroot, Orefinders or Big Ridge depending what happens next. Today’s gains were good but but last weeks losses were criminal interference.
Nicely done David. Yes, my portfolio was up about the same today 5.7%, and it was up over 6% most of the day. Hey, after the last few weeks, I’ll take a solid up day in the resource sector.
It was nice to see some Green On The Screen across the board in the Silver Producers:
Symbol – Silver #Producers – Daily Change %
AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +13.04%
GPL Great Panther Mining Limited +10.64%
FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +7.83%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +7.02%
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +6.77%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +6.71%
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +6.63%
AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +6.33%
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +6.18%
HL Hecla Mining Company +5.62%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +5.49%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +5.38%
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +5.15%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +4.88%
GATO Gatos Silver, Inc. +4.85%
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +4.77%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +4.76%
SMTS Sierra Metals Inc. +4.67%
EXN Excellon Resources Inc. +3.95%
APM.V Andean Precious Metals Corp. +3.85%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +2.82%
IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +2.30%
FRES.L Fresnillo plc +1.29%
There were also a vast majority of Silver explorers and developers in the green today.
Symbol – Silver Explorers and #Developers – Daily Change %
SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +33.33%
CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. +25.00%
KUYA.CN Kuya Silver Corporation +24.03%
MMN.V Monarca Minerals Inc. +18.18%
BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +17.24%
CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +16.67%
SAE.V Sable Resources Ltd. +14.71%
MSLV.V Mantaro Silver Corp. +12.00%
KS.V Klondike Silver Corp. +11.11%
DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +10.71%
DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +10.20%
ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. +9.76%
SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +9.26%
NUAG.TO New Pacific Metals Corp. +8.68%
AUU.V Gold79 Mines Ltd. +8.33%
MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +8.32%
AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +7.89%
ABRA.V AbraSilver Resource Corp. +7.59%
ZFR.V Zephyr Minerals Ltd. +7.41%
VZLA.V Vizsla Silver Corp. +7.00%
BNKR.CN Bunker Hill Mining Corp. +6.98%
EMO.V Emerita Resources Corp. +6.75%
GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +6.38%
CCW.V Canada Silver Cobalt Works Inc. +6.35%
BNCH.V Benchmark Metals Inc. +6.25%
AUMN Golden Minerals Company +5.69%
SIL.TO SilverCrest Metals Inc. +5.59%
APGO.V Apollo Gold & Silver Corp. +5.41%
AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +5.26%
GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +5.13%
REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. +5.00%
RSLV.V Reyna Silver Corp. +4.35%
DSV.V Discovery Silver Corp. +4.17%
SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +4.17%
VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. +4.17%
EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation +4.17%
SLVR.V Silver Tiger Metals Inc. +4.00%
FAT.CN Far Resources Ltd. +4.00%
SSVR.V Summa Silver Corp. +4.00%
ELO.V Eloro Resources Ltd. +3.66%
MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +2.60%
BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +2.31%
ZAC.V Zacatecas Silver Corp. +2.08%
IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +1.64%
CKG.V Chesapeake Gold Corp. +1.49%
SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +0.83%
Look at that Dolly go. She’s beautiful.
Yes agreed Terry. Dolly Varden is still an unloved beauty, but the bounce today with the rest of the sector bounce was quite encouraging. DV still has a ways to go to the upside to get rerated back up to reflect the current silver price, but one day at a time.
The big boy Gold Seniors had a positive day as well.
Symbol – Gold Major #Producers – Daily Change %
SBSW Sibanye Stillwater Limited +7.76%
EDV.TO Endeavour Mining plc +6.03%
ZIJMF Zijin Mining Group Company Limited +5.48%
HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited +5.03%
GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation +4.78%
KL Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. +4.71%
AUY Yamana Gold Inc. +4.52%
KGC Kinross Gold Corporation +3.85%
AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited +3.74%
AU AngloGold Ashanti Limited +3.27%
NEM Newmont Corporation +2.54%
GFI Gold Fields Limited +2.23%
NCM.AX Newcrest Mining Limited +1.50%
POLY.L Polymetal International plc +0.23%
Symbol – Gold Mid-Tier Producers – Daily Change %
MUX McEwen Mining Inc. +15.15%
NGD New Gold Inc. +11.21%
GSS Golden Star Resources Ltd. +9.09%
IAG IAMGOLD Corporation +7.76%
KNT.TO K92 Mining Inc. +7.26%
CXB.TO Calibre Mining Corp. +7.25%
IGO.V Independence Gold Corp. +7.14%
EQX Equinox Gold Corp. +6.80%
CG.TO Centerra Gold Inc. +6.42%
GCM.TO Gran Colombia Gold Corp. +6.29%
PVG Pretium Resources Inc. +5.68%
BTG B2Gold Corp. +5.45%
EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation +5.32%
PRU.TO Perseus Mining Limited +5.30%
DNG.TO Dynacor Gold Mines Inc. +4.96%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +4.88%
TXG.TO Torex Gold Resources Inc. +4.80%
DRD DRDGOLD Limited +4.63%
AGI Alamos Gold Inc. +4.53%
GAU Galiano Gold Inc. +4.33%
RRL.AX Regis Resources Limited +4.25%
NST.AX Northern Star Resources Limited +3.87%
DPM.TO Dundee Precious Metals Inc. +3.69%
SLR.AX Silver Lake Resources Limited +3.49%
RSG.AX Resolute Mining Limited +3.30%
OGC.TO OceanaGold Corporation +3.17%
SBM.AX St Barbara Limited +2.90%
EVN.AX Evolution Mining Limited +2.89%
WGX.AX Westgold Resources Limited +2.64%
RMS.AX Ramelius Resources Limited +2.62%
MML.AX Medusa Mining Limited +2.58%
MND.TO Mandalay Resources Corporation +2.27%
AR.TO Argonaut Gold Inc. +2.01%
WAF.AX West African Resources Limited +1.94%
1818.HK Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited +1.93%
POG.L Petropavlovsk PLC +0.95%
CEE.TO Centamin plc +0.58%
KOZAL.IS Koza Altin Isletmeleri A.S. +0.38%
CGG.TO China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. +0.29%
Ex: Good stuff. I was wondering how the menagerie of favorite stocks did today. Prescience at work.
Thanks David. Here are the smaller gold producers that also had a positive day (which was the majority of them)
Symbol – Gold Small #Producers – Daily Change %
SAM.TO Starcore International Mines Ltd. +14.58%
ALTN.L AltynGold plc +9.40%
GORO Gold Resource Corporation +8.75%
JAG.TO Jaguar Mining Inc. +8.05%
HRT.TO Harte Gold Corp. +7.69%
PGDC.V Patagonia Gold Corp. +7.69%
GG.V Galane Gold Ltd. +6.90%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +6.71%
GXS.V Goldsource Mines Inc. +6.59%
CERT.V Cerrado Gold Inc. +6.50%
AUMN Golden Minerals Company +5.69%
GMTN.V Gold Mountain Mining Corp. +5.63%
SGN.V Scorpio Gold Corporation +5.00%
IMII Inception Mining, Inc. +4.17%
TRX Tanzanian Gold Corporation +3.95%
WDO.TO Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. +3.52%
ARIS.TO Aris Gold Corporation +3.51%
MGR.V Magna Gold Corp. +3.45%
CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc +3.32%
KRR.TO Karora Resources Inc. +3.19%
F.V Fiore Gold Ltd. +2.91%
SGI.V Superior Gold Inc. +2.56%
ALK.AX Alkane Resources Limited +2.06%
MTL.L Metals Exploration plc +1.89%
STGO.TO Steppe Gold Ltd. +1.76%
FTCO Fortitude Gold Corporation +1.64%
AMI.AX Aurelia Metals Limited +1.52%
IGO.AX IGO Limited +1.19%
RED.AX Red 5 Limited +1.11%
SFR.AX Sandfire Resources Limited +0.97%
ORA.TO Aura Minerals Inc. +0.97%
SHG.L Shanta Gold Limited +0.77%
The Aussies are not keeping up for some reason. Maybe they’ll go for a gallop later.
Let’s see how the Aussie stocks fare in the next trading session for Tuesday.
Subhumans do a 5 candle attack for their clients….The Fed.
Most of these stocks were up on less than stellar volume, some like AXU, barely traded above their daily 3 month average.
Like I said, a rally to be sold, not bought.
GDX and GDXJ traded about twice their average daily volume which was the most since the big plunge in mid June about 9 weeks ago. I sold nothing today but want to see good follow through tomorrow.
Matthew:
You posted while I was writing. I tend to agree with your comments.
Never know…
Less than stellar volume?? The volume of the gold mining ETFs were up substantially today, albeit the Silver miners didn’t have as much volume, but that is par for the course with the turns, where the larger gold miners get the bid first, and then the Silvers and Gold Juniors play catch up and start to outperform.
This very well could end up being a rally to be sold, and we’ll only know in hindsight, but the lack of increase in volume in Alexco has nothing to do with it, and the price action was far more important.
In AXU the Avg. Volume is 984,853 and Today’s Volume was 1,082,620 which is slightly higher than the average volume, and enough to validate the move higher by over 13% today.
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GDX (Major & Royalties) Avg. Volume 19,669,388 // Today’s Volume 34,967,673
GDXJ (Mid-Tiers) Avg. Volume 5,979,138 // Today’s Volume 10,029,463
GOEX (Juniors) Avg. Volume 7,336 // Today’s Volume 22,261
Actually in looking at how well GOEX did today, at triple the normal volume, then it looks like the Juniors did finally get a bid, and GDXJ had a bigger percentage increase than GDX so it was a healthy increase in volume in the Gold miners.
I’d like to see the Silver miners play more catch up and get more of a bid as the week continues, but it was at least a notable move higher today in the PM miners any way one slices it.
It should be noted that even GOEX isn’t really that good of a barometer in the true Junior miners or “explorers” as the ETF is labeled as the Top 10 holdings are still in the Mid-Tier producers. It would be great if there was an ETF for just the Gold explorers & developers, but sadly their is not.
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(GOEX) Global X Gold Explorers ETF – Top 10 Holdings (40.03% of Total Assets)
Name Symbol % Assets (Note these are mid-tier producers not really Jr explorers)
Hecla Mining Co HL 6.82%
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd KL.TO 4.31%
SSR Mining Inc SSRM.TO 4.06%
Endeavour Mining PLC EDV.L 3.94%
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk MDKA 3.84%
Alamos Gold Inc Class A AGI.TO 3.67%
B2Gold Corp BTO.TO 3.50%
Coeur Mining Inc CDE 3.38%
Novagold Resources Inc NG 3.35%
Equinox Gold Corp EQX.TO 3.16%
Gold and Market Update – Breakouts
Smart Money Tracker – Gary Savage – August 23, 2021 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
Savage is a very interesting man. I used to enjoy chatting with and learning from him.
Agreed Big Al. Gary has a unique take on the markets, and I used to enjoy the segments where you and Cory would bring him on in the past.
McEwen Copper closes $40M private placement with Rob McEwen
Aug. 23, 2021 By: Carl Surran
“McEwen Mining (MUX +14.1%) says its McEwen Copper subsidiary closed the first tranche of the series B private placement offering announced in early July, issuing 4M common shares at C$10 each for gross proceeds of C$40M.”
“McEwen Copper owns 100% interests in the Los Azules copper project in Argentina and the Elder Creek copper-gold exploration property in Nevada, both subject to a 1.26% net smelter return royalty payable to McEwen Mining.”
A(Maple leaf)G @agstockpicks 10:14 AM · Aug 23, 2021 on Twitter:
$MUX $MUX.TO Downtrend break + Bullish MACD cross (technical buy signal)… #gold #copper
(NSR) (OTCQX: NSRXF) Nomad Royalty Company to List on the NYSE
Aug. 23, 2021
Nomad’s Chief Executive Officer, Vincent Metcalfe, commented: “Listing on the NYSE represents a significant milestone in the growth of the Company. The listing will materially increase Nomad’s exposure to a larger and more diverse group of institutional and retail investors as we continue to grow our portfolio of precious metals royalties and streams. We strongly believe the listing will improve trading liquidity and expand our globally diverse shareholder base.”
(PGE) (PGEZF) Group Ten Metals Signs Binding Letter of Intent on the Black Lake-Drayton Gold Project in Ontario, Canada
23 Aug 2021
“Group Ten Metals Inc. is pleased to announce that it has entered into a binding Letter of Intent with Heritage Mining Ltd. whereby, subject to the earn-in requirements specified therein, Heritage can acquire up to a 90% interest in Group Ten’s Black Lake-Drayton gold project in Ontario, Canada.”
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/group-ten-metals-signs-binding-letter-of-intent-on
I’m happy to see Group Ten creating value out of their non-core Black Lake-Drayton gold project in Ontario (which is adjacent to the Treasury Metals land package of Goliath and now First Mining’s Goldlund project). Group Ten had the other 1/3 of this trend, and now Heritage Mining will be working on advancing it, while (PGE) continues to stay focused on their Stillwater West PGE-Ni-Cu-Co + Au project adjacent to Sibanye-Stillwater’s high-grade PGE mines in Montana, USA.
The World’s Latest Gold Producer – Thor Explorations
Soar Financial – 08/23/2021
“On #SFLive Ep 209, we are being joined by Segun Lawson, CEO of Thor Explorations Ltd. (TSX.v: THX) to discuss the gold production ramp-up, exploration efforts & more.”
Gann Global, James Flanagan, has gone all in on Gold and precious metals stocks based on the third test of the lows that he was looking for. With a DSI of 8 on Gold last week and 12 on Silver we almost certainly have a traceable low.
Thanks a lot, Bob. I’m all in too. Hope you are doing well.
Thanks to both of you. I remain all in.
Mr. Moriarty. Thanks for the comment about Gann Global. Much appreciated. Hope France is treating you well.
Thanks Bob M. for the heads up on James at Gann. Much appreciated.
Yes, with the Daily Sentiment Index in the single digits and that flash crash low of $1677 being tagged again for the 3rd time and then Gold rebounding, it does look like a solid tradeable low was put in. Cheers!
Shad/Cory: You should interview Spencer Huh shuh@neobatterymaterials.com I think they are on to something big. Recharging a battery in 5 minutes is the starting block for NEO Battery Materials interest https://investorintel.com/markets/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/recharging-a-battery-in-5-minutes-is-the-starting-block-for-neo-battery-materials-interest/
Good listen Cory. Hopefully these prices hold and go higher tomorrow. Anybody know how Gann Global is reading this jump in gold? He was looking for the potential to issue an all out buy on miners.