Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Thu 9 Sep, 2021

What to understand about technical analysis and inter-market analysis

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us for a discussion focuses on technical analysis and what he thinks is valuable and what should be ignored. We use the gold market as our focus but also consider how other markets play into his outlook.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

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Comments:
  1. On September 9, 2021 at 10:56 am,
    Joe says:

    blah blah blah
    Same tired nonsense, different day.
    PMs are toast, done, finished. Mining companies are terrible investments, unless you are an insider or a newsletter writer.
    If you’re still holding shares in these companies now, you’ll hate yourself if you keep holding into tax loss selling season. During the next 3 months as the stock market roles over, gold will be sold off, as it always is during a such an event, and these stocks get decimated.

  2. On September 9, 2021 at 11:05 am,
    Chartster says:

    Great topic today, Guys. I wish I had a think tank of technicians to bounce different strategies around. Picking what works best with your style of trading is a life long quest, it seems. Everyone has their own DNA when it comes to charting.
    Four or five bad trades in a row will get ya searching for “that next great key” to unlocking more profits.
    I hope you guys have more technical oriented segments.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 12:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, it is very nice to be able to run different technical ideas by the analysts that come on the show to see what they think is relevant (price levels for support resistance, chart patterns, momentum & strength indicators, trendlines, fib levels, moving averages, bollinger bands, volume spikes, etc…).

      Different technicians hone in on certain aspects, and may dismiss other technical tools, where the next technician may be focused on the data points dismissed by the prior one and minimize the importance of their main thesis. We can learn a lot by each kind of analysis, so always interesting to get insights into the lens that others are viewing the setups.

  3. On September 9, 2021 at 11:10 am,
    David says:

    I think all those electric cars and materials to replace all the houses destroyed by climate change that doesn’t exist except several places around the planet not on the same day or place, is going to drive the price up for metals that corporations don’t want the price to increase because it affects the pay of upper management. That’s why mining companies rock…so to speak.

  4. On September 9, 2021 at 11:18 am,
    aghead says:

    I like Jordan. I’ve never heard him say what I WANTED to hear. He sticks to tech’s and also applies the other markets performances compared with PM’s…both now and from historical info.
    He never ‘pumps’. He never sounds like he is ‘recruiting’ traders to pay him.
    Also, He takes blame where it is due if he misjudges a call…he doesn’t blame banks, etc.
    Sadly, he’s not been the bearer of good news for awhile,…mean ol’ Jordan. 🙂 😉

    • On September 9, 2021 at 11:31 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +1 Jordan is a sharp guy, and his own man. He calls it like he sees it, whether it’s popular or not, which we appreciate.

  5. On September 9, 2021 at 11:31 am,
    David says:

    This was a great interview with broad coverage of “what is meaningful” when trying to determine the future. No one thing except “be as objective” as you can.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 11:36 am,
      David says:

      As opposed to “subjective. I try to only invest in mines that have “r” as the fourth letter in their name.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 12:12 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks David. Yes, it was interesting to learn more about what Jordan focuses on technically, and many of the factors he puts less weight on like (trendlines, forks, arcs, wave counts, etc…).

      I also thought his comments on combining technical analysis with the larger focus on “intermarket analysis” and how sectors relate to one another in ratios was insightful. Good thoughts from Jordan for sure.

      • On September 9, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
        David says:

        I also felt he didn’t place much credibility in market intervention…I just have a hard time ignoring the possibility after looking at the futures charts day after day for years. I consider those as pretty objective proof of some external actions, but not necessarily reality. Of course the effects are real.

        • On September 9, 2021 at 2:44 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, I don’t think he puts much focus on market intervention for analyzing market action. Neither do I really.

          It’s not that the markets don’t get pushed around by the big boys banks and financial institutions at times, but more the reality of — what can we really do about it as retail traders?

          Then only thing we can do is trade the prices and technical set-ups that we see in the markets, as pricing on the charts accounts for all buying and selling from all market participants big and small.

          • On September 9, 2021 at 4:00 pm,
            BDC says:

            “…pricing on the charts accounts for all buying and selling from all market participants big and small.” ~ For practical purposes, this is true. However, off market transactions do take place that only the DTCC has records of, and which are not made public.

  6. On September 9, 2021 at 11:57 am,
    larry says:

    i really think the algo traders are based off of fibonacci expansion/contraction theory along w Wykoff price volume analysis…That is my intra-day method on this 5 minute chart…Will i hold overnight…maybe not…
    https://tos.mx/j0mwJPO

    • On September 9, 2021 at 12:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good points there Larry on the algos being keyed of Fib levels (retracements or extensions) and price volume analysis. Some technicians completely ignore things like volume in relation to other factors, while others look for correlations and also divergences with volume. It’s interesting to think of all the different ways to analyze charts.

      There is also the different preferences on different time frames for charts as well, that we really didn’t dive to far into in this chat. It seems like the largest group of retail investors and analysts are focused on the daily charts, and then many institutions are more focused on the weekly charts. Then there are longer term value investors (like Doc) focused more on the monthly or quarterly charts to minimize the “noise” on the shorter time frame charts. All very interesting points for consideration, and often with folks coming to much different conclusions.

      • On September 9, 2021 at 12:22 pm,
        larry says:

        Ex-you are like a really smart dude….We are lucky to have both Cory and you on this gig…The show should eventually be multilingual worldwide, as the madness unfolds further globally…imho…good luck to two smart young men…with chops

        • On September 9, 2021 at 1:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks for the kind words Larry. Yes, Cory is a sharp dude for sure and I just try to keep up. Honestly there are some days where we both get tongue-tied and can barely speak English, so a multi-lingual KE Report would get pretty dicey. Luckily we record it and edit it later, but there are times it requires a 2nd take as we stumble and fumble through certain segments. Haha!!

          The thought has crossed my mind that maybe we should start a blooper reel though, although most of the most wild exchanges happen before we hit record or after.

          • On September 9, 2021 at 1:34 pm,
            David says:

            KISS…although the bloopers sound fascinating.

          • On September 9, 2021 at 5:06 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            KISS………. a crowd favorite… well, maybe to some… lol 🙂

          • On September 9, 2021 at 6:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes indeed OOTB. It is a crowd favorite (K.I.S.S.) 😉

        • On September 9, 2021 at 3:01 pm,
          Terry Huebert says:

          Cory is exceptional at what he does.

        • On September 9, 2021 at 6:15 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Yes Larry, I think Ex should learn how to speak Mandarin and then we could understand The Asian markets, more like Chen Lin does. Chen Lin say’s there could be a civil war in China. I don’t understand his thinking, this isn’t going to happen in the age of Technology. They can read your thoughts these days before you can get any words out of your mouth.

          • On September 9, 2021 at 11:22 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi DT – I do wish I could speak more languages and noodled around with learning a little Spanish 20+ years ago, but have forgotten most of it at this point. It’s unlikely I’ll pick up Mandarin at this phase of life, but you never know…

  7. On September 9, 2021 at 12:18 pm,
    larry says:

    weekly gdx showing .618 retracement right here on extrema light volume( even w 4 day week)…it cannot get too much better for another leg up….want a nice wick on this weeks bar very soon……glta

    https://tos.mx/rbykW9d

  8. On September 9, 2021 at 12:21 pm,
    Holy Grail says:

    I TOLD YOU SO !!!!

    This is the second interview I’ve listened to in several months from all analysts here on this blog or website or whatever you want to call this place. ( Korelin Old Folks Resort).

    When Jordan did an interview several weeks ago I stated that he proved to be absolutely right regarding precious metals several months ago. I was cautiously bullish several months ago and the decline prevailed in precious metals. I have a core position that I’m not selling and to add more positions several months ago was not the correct action. I was cautiously bullish. I’m still waiting for that big fire sale if it ever comes.

    Jordan nails it once again. Gold and silver lead commodities. Every single time very very few exceptions. People are slowly losing confidence in the system. Not only that Jordan states that gold does well when the stock market is basically puking. Again, “”loss of confidence””.

    Bottom line, gold could stay in a trading range within a couple hundred dollars and now we have tax loss selling Joe pointed out first post on this blog. Welcome to the real world !!!! Dreamers keep scratching their heads.

    WHAT NOW ???? stop dreaming. 🚫 scratching your head.

    Jordan should have probably mentioned that cryptocurrencies have stolen over 2 trillion dollars in market capitalization and most of that would have found its way into precious metals.

    THIS IS THE REAL WORLD THROW AWAY YOUR CHARTS AND PITCHFORKS AND ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT’S NOT DOING YOU ANY GOOD. Disclaimer, unless of course your short-term trading day trading swing trading.

    EVERYTHING ELSE IS BS.

    I MIGHT NOT ALWAYS BE RIGHT !!!!!

    HOWEVER, I’VE NEVER WRONG lol

    • On September 9, 2021 at 2:00 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Chart analysis provides the best “real world” analysis. It’s funny that you and so many others think otherwise.

      • On September 9, 2021 at 2:14 pm,
        Holy Grail says:

        All depends on who’s doing the charting and other analysis that’s taking in consideration including fundamentals. How about tax loss selling is that going to be in the charts too.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 6:18 pm,
      Glenfidish says:

      Everything is cyclical regardless of what is being traded.. I personally don’t touch crypto for one to volatile and secondly my strengths are within the miners ans the companies.

      We can sit here all day and talk about the ups and down of miners through the years but from every asset class I have seen. The miners “ when timed correctly” offer one of the best returns in percentages you can get. You seem to be very bearish as of late when almost all indicators, sentiment and cycles are screaming a long term bottom is near or has evolved..

      Glen

      • On September 9, 2021 at 7:11 pm,
        Holy Grail says:

        You might consider re-reading my comments. I mentioned tax loss selling that is a consideration at this particular time. To drive precious metals higher we need a complete collapse in confidence that’s our next catalyst. Without that, there’s not going to be a sustained rally. Period !!!!

        By the way, institutional investors do not use charts. Oh, I could see it now Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett are going to be staring at charts while they decide if they’re going to invest in companies including five star mutual funds. Individual investors do not become extremely wealthy by staring at charts. They invest in companies that have a bright future and superior management including exploding earnings at some point in the future.

        Ya, I’m going to say it again. THE REST IS BS INCLUDING THE CHARTS.

        • On September 10, 2021 at 4:24 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          I’m not sure but it seems you have not listened to myself or many other investors here at the ker for years. When have I said charts is the all Be it? Not once. I’ve made a list of many things which include what you speak of when considering investing in a company. I won’t go through that list again but to declassify charts and make it a point in reference that it is basically worthless, I would imply that your method is similar to a fisherman who discredits a fish finder or gps. A chart allows anyone to see pass, present and possible further price action. Must I say more?

          • On September 10, 2021 at 4:50 am,
            Holy Grail says:

            Apparently, you didn’t read the entire thread. What you’re implying and claiming is the best money managers in the world use charts which is complete BS. If charts are so reliable why do investors lose a significant amount of money listening to chart technical analysts.

            Everyone I know of and have witnessed “”never”” used charts to make an extreme amount of wealth and money. Completely absurd and preposterous the charts lead someone to great prosperity.

  9. On September 9, 2021 at 1:04 pm,
    BDC says:

    STATS Price Quality Wrap-Up : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    Another PM down day. Critical levels are holding. See below.
    Palladium broke and will likely saturate lower. Ditto Platinum.
    Uranium holds, somewhat lower. Saturation has paused or ended.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 1:10 pm,
      BDC says:

      Can Glen and Doc both be right?

      In August GDX put in a Color Bottom (saturated) with the rest of the Big Four (GDXJ, HUI, XAU). It is possible that another one, at a marginally higher level than the 20th, can take place tomorrow, Monday, or Tuesday. The significance is that the others all broke their March lows in August while GDX held above by a nickel! GDX is currently the key bellwhether.

      This is a process which could repeat, and even prove both Glen and Doc essentially correct, sans exact timing.

      P.S. Saturation level rules for “Qualified Saturation” have been absolutely established. It is completely ‘objective’. Both “Static Power” and “Dynamic Power” are still in the ‘subjective’ stage of development – the former much more so. Most people should begin with the “Abbreviated” page, and understand that ‘price’ is a complementary duality of both Quantity (cost) and especially Quality, my specialty.

      • On September 9, 2021 at 1:17 pm,
        BDC says:
        • On September 9, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
          CaliJoe says:

          Not before I cover my NEM shorts 😉

          • On September 9, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
            BDC says:

            Are those the polka dot ones?…lol

          • On September 9, 2021 at 6:27 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            BDC,

            I just read your piece and so I guess thank you 🙂 not sure.. the only thing I remember stating was that I was watching hui carefully and gdx bottoms I’m august. Ex mentioned two other bloggers or contributors maybe Jordan also spoke about what I had said. What i said was I wanted to see hui hold 246-252 monthly and it did. I changed patterns as I was solely focused on gold and gdx and looked for another source to show me the way.. I believe currently hui is showing us the way and I like what I see.

            I think the damage has been done and we are going higher.

            Cheers my friend

          • On September 9, 2021 at 6:30 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Jajaj on the polka dots! Keep up the saturation method I enjoy listening

            Glen

          • On September 9, 2021 at 6:35 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            I think someones constant Persistence of divergence since many months ago is finally coming to fruition. I would agree that the prices we currently have have been a blessing in disguise and he who has not been a buyer as of late will regret having to buy at a price much higher.

            Also for the many people who don’t have any idea regarding crypto and gold/miners, let me make this 100% clear, glen is on the train from the beginning that crypto is not gold nor a commodity, crypto is teck space and will always be that! It is 100% Evil and places there by the swamp

  10. On September 9, 2021 at 2:42 pm,
    b says:

    September 9th, 2021
    MINING NEWS DIGEST

    Biden administration moves to block Alaska Pebble mine
    The Department of Justice asked the court on Thursday to vacate a 2019 decision by the Trump-era EPA to remove protection of the Bristol Bay watershed.

    • On September 9, 2021 at 2:44 pm,
      b says:

      Does it really matter if we save the salmon and jobs.
      Were all dead from the vaccine anyway, well 70% of us.. 😉

    • On September 9, 2021 at 3:42 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      While the Pebble Mine in Alaska held by Northern Dynasty is well endowed, it has been stalled for over a decade now, and every 2-3 years it gets trotted out as a generational asset, but it’s development has been blocked repeated by activist groups about the salmon, and environment, and it has a massive capital outlay that would be needed. It isn’t really a surprise that it got blocked once again.

  11. On September 9, 2021 at 3:28 pm,
    Poko says:

    Matt,thanks for your comments on Galleon!
    Lisa Buchan text me today regarding the resource estimate and said that the historic resource was a global number based on wide spaced drilling – it required additional definition drilling to be able to model it into pit and underground shapes.(we lost some ounces from the 2013 estimate but ultimately gain 200k ounces overall)
    Still plenty of gold to be found on the property!!
    Poko

  12. On September 9, 2021 at 3:44 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Bob Hoye: Subtle Stock Market Warning Signs

    September 3, 2021 – Howe Street

    https://www.howestreet.com/2021/09/subtle-stock-market-warning-signs-bob-hoye/

    • On September 9, 2021 at 6:00 pm,
      Terry Huebert says:

      Howestreet has a few good regulars on.

  13. On September 9, 2021 at 8:52 pm,
    b says:

    Following El Salvador making bitcoin legal tender, privacy activist and whistleblower Edward Snowden says, “there is now pressure on competing nations to acquire bitcoin — even if only as a reserve asset.” He warned, “Latecomers may regret hesitating.”

    More coin not going to PMs.

    https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/09/edward-snowden-says-competing-nations-now-under-pressure-to-acquire-bitcoin-following-el-salvador/

  14. On September 9, 2021 at 8:53 pm,
    b says:

    Majority of Salvadorans do not want bitcoin, poll shows | Reutershttps://www.reuters.com › technology › majority-
    8 days ago

    — At least 67.9% of 1,281 people surveyed said they disagree or strongly disagree with the use of bitcoin as a legal tender, said the poll by UCA,

    • On September 10, 2021 at 4:29 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      It seems clear to me b that crypto is full throttle and the priority number 1 of these scum bags behind the scenes. Eliminate paper, surveillance, tax and keep them controlled is the method. Barter will always exists but paper is going away!

  15. On September 10, 2021 at 5:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    This run higher in the Uranium stocks has been relentless lately. Even though I’m bullish on the medium term fundamental set up for the sector and the U stocks in general, this is starting to get a bit overbought and frothy. Then again the outsized moves in the uranium stocks since mid 2020 into mid 2021 were something anticipated, as once this sector starts to move higher, it can really jolt up suddenly, when capital flows hit such a tiny sector.

    Even though I’ve been thrilled with the move higher in the whole basket of Uranium stocks over the last year, and have previously done both some trimming and adding a few times, it really is starting to feel short-term toppy again.

    I’m typically an early trimmer, and may regret this decision, but I’m considering trimming back my uranium mining positions today by about 20%-25% across the board to harvest some more gains. That leaves me with 80%-75% core positions in the names I like, and frees up more funds to work with. These positions have done quite well and while I believe they can go much higher longer term, they’re getting a bit rich in valuations based on the reality of the lack of production and prices still being below what are needed to encourage new production to come on line.

    My strategy will be to roll some of the U stock gains over into the more beat up PM miners. The risk/reward scenario in many gold or silver stocks continues to look more compelling than other mining stocks at present. I’ve also reduced down a great deal of my Lithium, and PGM mining exposure to focus more on PMs after they’ve had really great runs from 2020 into 2021.

    For the first time in a while, my portfolio’s scope is being more concentrated on the PMs, and I’ve reduced down some of the more niche sectors that already had really nice runs. If we see the PMs in the doghouse for a lot longer, then this will have been a bad strategy, and maybe Uranium and Lithium stocks will not stop running higher and higher, without slowing down. However, very rarely does anything move in a straight line in either direction, so a reversion to the mean in all these sectors, for the short to medium term, seems quite reasonable.

    • On September 10, 2021 at 7:59 am,
      BDC says:

      Ex: I follow CCJ DNN NXE UUUU and ISENF (both URA and URNM are covered in STATS Price Quality). Are there some others that should be included in a short list?

      • On September 10, 2021 at 9:36 am,
        Excelsior says:

        That’s a good list (CCJ, DNN, NXE, UUUU, ISENF, URNM) that you mentioned.

        I also hold URG Ur-Energy and UEC Uranium Energy Corp and trimmed those back today, in addition to DNN, NXE, and UUUU. I also sold AZZ Azarga Uranium on takeover news with EU. EU enCore Energy would be good to have on there as the new combined company. Some also like GLO Global Atomic, GXU GoviEx, LAM Laramide, BQSSF Boss Energy, and URC Uranium Royalty Corp.

        There are also a lot of other explorers that could also be list but those are a number of the main developers and a royalty corp with potential.

        • On September 10, 2021 at 9:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I also sold completely out of STND Standard Uranium today, but would buy back in if it corrected down a for a while with the rest of the sector.

          • On September 10, 2021 at 9:59 am,
            Excelsior says:

            It’s sometimes hard to book gains when a sector is just running and running to the upside, and again, maybe I’m clipping things a bit early in many of these names, but I left 5 out of the 7 stocks in place with reduced core positions (UUUU, URG, DNN, UEC, NXE) and would consider adding to those or adding back 2-3 others if we saw a nice 15-25% corrective move from here. If they just keep running then I’ve got 5 fishing poles in the pond.

          • On September 10, 2021 at 10:01 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I used some of the funds to buy back into 3 companies I had sold out of in July (Silvercorp, Lion One, and Bonterra), and 2 new positions in Karora Resources and Amex Exploration. The rest of the funds I’m setting to the side to repurchase the Uranium miners on any potential corrective moves next week.

          • On September 10, 2021 at 10:52 am,
            BDC says:

            Keep an eye on the Dollar. For now, most everything is priced in it.

          • On September 10, 2021 at 11:10 am,
            BDC says:
          • On September 11, 2021 at 1:06 am,
            Excelsior says:

            BDC – Good point to keep an eye on the US Dollar.

            Thanks for sharing that Dollar chart with us.

    • On September 10, 2021 at 9:00 am,
      Terry Huebert says:

      Huge subsidies are being approved by Illinois government to keep nuclear power stations from closing.

  16. On September 10, 2021 at 6:14 am,
    b says:

    I havnt looked at uranium for years so have no idea other than reactors need to be fed.

    I read recently that 10 million americans are about to have fed benefits end, there are millions of jobs available to fill as people preferred to stay at home.

    That could change big time, which means reports of a booming economy could be just around the corner.

    Which of course means, no reason to buy gold.

    If that works out, we could be in for a price drop.

    Generally I get things backwards, so, prepare for a to the moon move. 😉

    • On September 10, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
      Terry Huebert says:

      Look at DNN. Even a mutt can fly when it’s got backing of US military and Feds.

      • On September 10, 2021 at 2:09 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The reason the Uranium stocks are flying has absolutely nothing to do with either the US military or the Fed.

        For anyone actually following along with the Uranium sector is it all about the fundamental supply/demand set up, with most mines having completely closed or gone on care and maintenance in the last 2 years, with the secondary supply from Russian & Kazak underfeeding having dried up, with over a half dozen companies buying U308 right out of the spot market, and now the Sprott physical fund mopping up the rest…. leaving hardly anything for the utility companies to purchase.

        As we’ve covered repeatedly on here for some time, the utility companies have not only been out to lunch on the true availability of short-term supply, but completely asleep at the wheel. They’re about to have a real awakening on what the dynamics really are, and finally start coming down to deal with the miners and negotiating off-take contracts (at even higher prices than where things are to incentivize new production). The miners are and have been anticipating this, hence the big run up over the last year.

        This has been a very easy thing to see coming over the last few years and it has been gaining momentum since the Uranium price double bottomed at that $17-$18 low in late 2016 and again in late 2017. Since that bottom, the sector has been gradually trending higher, but over the last year it has really picked up the pace, and there has been massive volume inflows into the miners, showing the smart money institutional funds finally got the memo. The more uranium that gets sucked out of the spot markets the more obvious it will become to the utility companies.

        Positioning in the Uranium stocks when they were so beat up and riding this trend higher has been an easy trade in the resource sector that was inevitable to play out… and it has been in spades.

  17. On September 10, 2021 at 7:14 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    GOTS…………. TIme to hunker down boyz…. real simple….

  18. On September 10, 2021 at 8:55 am,
    jonsyl says:

    So quiet, it’s deafening.
    Meanwhile more of the same for metals. No hurry for anything, watch the paint dry.
    Spx teasing on the downside for another short lived profit taking event fooling most as the beginning of the end many times.

  19. On September 10, 2021 at 1:03 pm,
    b says:

    Silver Forecast: No Massive Rally in the Cards
    P. Radomski
    September 9, 2021

    https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-forecast-no-massive-rally-cards

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