Ed Moya - Senior Market Analyst at OANDA – Mon 13 Sep, 2021

The short tech trade, rising oil prices, and fake news out of the cryptocurrency space

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analysts at OANDA joins us to discuss some of the more noteworthy headlines and market data he is seeing. We start with the tech sector and Ed’s noting of a general unwind of the large short trade recently. We then look at the oil price that has rebounded and how another tropical storm could impact price. Finally it’s back to cryptocurrenies and what turned out to a a fake news story out of Walmart regarding Litecoin.

Click here to read over Ed’s daily note.

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Comments:
  1. On September 13, 2021 at 3:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Well, this has been another wild day higher in Uranium stocks and I did even more trimming back of positions.

    Last week I had sold 2 of my 7 U stocks (the Azarga sale was due to the takeover news from enCore), and trimmed back the remaining 5 positions (UUUU, URG, DNN, UEC, NXE) by 25% on Friday.

    Today I sold down DNN and NXE to just a 15% weighting and those are just for tracking positions, and reduced UUUU, URG, and UEC to just 40% positions for the near term. My strategy here is to add back to all 5 positions into any weakness, and I may buy back into STND again before they release too many more drill results.

    In the short-term things are looking pretty overbought and even frothy in the in the U stocks, but after a bit of a correction I’ll plow some funds right back in for the long game. The risk is that these things just keep running higher without a pause, but I’d prefer not to see too extreme of parabolic move higher, and would rather see things keep progressing with the 2 steps forward, and 1 step back approach.

    The only thing that has me concerned about harvesting so many Uranium gains last Friday and today on Monday is those wild momo meme-stock herd traders from Wallstreet Bets and Reddit and Robinhood that may just keep pushing things to absurd levels (like they did in a dozen other stocks this year already).

    • On September 13, 2021 at 3:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I also am concerned that there may be a ton of money on the sidelines that has been waiting all year for good pullback and missed the summer weakness, and now that there has been a “second wind” to this upleg that started last year in mid 2020, that when we do see the next pullback, there will be a lot of buying that pours in from the “Johnny come lately” trend followers.

      As a result, I’d anticipate (barring some crazy market dislocation) that the pullbacks from here on out will be shallow and more brief than many expect, so for me a nice 15% correction from current prices will be a good reason to start adding back to the positioned trimmed. If we got anything over a 20% corrective move (which is less likely for the reasons aforementioned) then I’ll be loading the boat again.

      • On September 13, 2021 at 3:38 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It appears some of these Uranium stocks are still running higher even in afterhours trading, so I may have been too early of a trimmer once again. Darn…

        Regardless, I’ve got a pretty big pool of funds to accumulate these positions back with, but am a little nervous these U stocks are now in that unhinged mania phase and may just stay on that rocket ride higher to absurd levels.

        Oh well, I’ve had an excellent run of repeated swing-trades in these stocks for the last few years, and in particular this big run off the pandemic crash to present has been fantastic. At least I still have three 40% positions and two 15% positions still on the field for any more upside lunges. 😉

        Congrats to all the Uranium bulls that have been handsomely rewarded in this recent surge higher. Ever Upward!

        • On September 13, 2021 at 8:35 pm,
          Wolfster says:
          • On September 13, 2021 at 11:23 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hey there Wolfster. Yes, the uranium stocks rallying the last few weeks has definitely been a bright spot in the resource space. It’s a nice reminder of just how fast these miners can move when money flows into this tiny sector.

            Nice to see you posting here again buddy. Thanks for the post on the WallStreet Bets mobs finding the U stocks. Now, if they’d just find the precious metals stocks…. haha!

          • On September 14, 2021 at 12:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Cameco Trades At 10-year High As Wall Street Bets Turns Focus On Uranium

            Michael McCrae – September 13, 2021

            “Cameco (CCJ:NYSE) was the second most mentioned stock ticker on Wall Street Bets today, according to Quiver Quantitative.”

            “The major Canadian uranium miner was only second to SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, in mentions on the popular finance bulletin board.”

            “Today Cameco hit a high of $26.41 today, a level it hasn’t seen since 2011.”

            “Cameco wasn’t the only winner. A number of uranium stocks were up sharply today: Uranium Royalty rising 23% to $5.43; ISOEnergy gaining 16% to $5.49; Fission Uranium adding 5% to $1.05; Denison Energy jumping 3.52% to $2.06; and Ur-Energy lifting 7.14% to $2.25.”

            “Wall Street Bets carried forward last week’s momentum. In news reports last week when uranium stocks were trading higher, Sprott director Rick Rule and Uranium Energy CEO Amir Adnani both credited the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund (SRUUF) with adding liquidity to the market, which has helped raise stock prices in the sector.”

            https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-13/Wall-Street-Bets-turns-focus-on-uranium-Cameco-trades-at-10-year-high.html

    • On September 13, 2021 at 3:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      James Connor @JamesConnor1999 4:04 AM · Sep 13, 2021· Twitter

      “#Uranium is up 25% and the #SprottUraniumTrust is up 60% since our interview with CEO Peter Grosskopf.”

      https://twitter.com/jamesconnor1999/status/1437371695334150148?s=10

      • On September 13, 2021 at 3:46 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s that interview James mentioned up above in that tweet:

        ________________________________________________________________________________

        Sprott Inc – CEO Peter Grosskopf – Uranium & Gold Products

        Bloor Street Capital – July 29, 2021

        https://youtu.be/D99Vt7ak40c

        • On September 13, 2021 at 3:52 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Stokdog @stokdog · 22h – Sep 13, 2021 – Twitter

          “To our United States, Canadian, and United Kingdom friends, here is an ASX open to remember #Fire #Fire #Fire”

          #uranium

          https://twitter.com/stokdog/status/1437207394044420098

          • On September 13, 2021 at 3:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            This one made me chuckle from John Quakes (who is one of the best follows in the Uranium sector BTW)

            _____________________________________________________________________________

            John Quakes @quakes99 – 5:07 AM · Sep 13, 2021·Twitter

            GOOD MORNING #URANIUM! 🌄🐔☕️🚀

            https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1437387520379998211

  2. On September 14, 2021 at 12:43 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Ed Moya discussed this recent crypto hoodwinking of investors with fake news on a supposed partnership between Litecoin and Walmart.

    This article provides a bit more detail on this story.

    _____________________________________________________________________________

    Crypto Pump-And-Dump Uses Litecoin And Walmart To Dupe Investors

    Gerelyn Terzo – September 13, 2021

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-13/Crypto-pump-and-dump-uses-Litecoin-and-Walmart-to-dupe-investors.html

  3. On September 14, 2021 at 1:21 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Reading about The Fed’s missives, first you get transitory inflation, it causes a big stir in the crowd. Let’s dissect that, they must know what they are talking about. Then along comes tapering talk. Next up on the agenda, TT or Transitory Tapering. Such utter nonsense, but when you are The Federal Reserve you can say anything and most people think you are very wise. It never fails to amaze me how anyone could take these guys seriously.

    • On September 14, 2021 at 1:29 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed DT. That’s why I’ve called it “Fedbabble” since the Great Financial Crisis. It also amazes me how the markets hang on every word they utter, and worse – that they believe what they say. In reality, history shows they repeatedly flip-flop from what they say to what they actually do.

      While the actual fed policy is a market driver, sadly 95% of the Fed chair and Fed governors talks are just trying to jawbone the markets into submission, and they normally cave in to what the markets want in the end.

      • On September 14, 2021 at 5:34 am,
        BDC says:

        It’s a question of sovereignty, which Americans lost in 1913, Catholics lost in 1823, and the English lost in 1694.

  4. On September 14, 2021 at 1:33 am,
    Matthew says:
  5. On September 14, 2021 at 1:42 am,
    Matthew says:
  6. On September 14, 2021 at 1:46 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I think and probably many others believe that the psychological pendulum in the conventional markets is on it’s down swing. It will be as difficult to stop it on it’s down-swing as it was on it’s up-swing. The business cycle is a psychological phenomenon.

  7. On September 14, 2021 at 2:41 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Ronald-Peter Stoeferle – Is Gold Dead? Bitcoin price to hit levels we ‘cannot imagine’

    Kitco News – Sep 12, 2021

    “Global financial markets have reached a “monetary tipping point”, according to Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner of Incrementum AG.”

    “After this tipping point, inflation will continue to climb up, real interest rates will remain in negative or near-zero percent territory, and monetary policy will become less impactful for the markets than fiscal policy; this will be an era of fiscal dominance.”

    0:00 – Is gold dead?
    5:21 – Bitcoin vs. gold
    11:50 – Monetary tipping point; “Opranomics”
    13:50 – Central banks becoming “social activists”
    17:04 – Inflation vs deflation
    22:26 – Monetary vs fiscal policy
    24:30 – Market risks
    27:35 – Gold vs inflation expectations
    29:50 – Gold price outlook

    https://youtu.be/QIHJgncRbbM

  8. On September 14, 2021 at 6:23 am,
    BDC says:

    Monday Price Quality : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    PMs: Friday lows, Monday head fake lows, may hold.
    Uranium: A pull back is possible. CCJ at MaxSat(7).

  9. On September 14, 2021 at 7:28 am,
    jonsyl says:

    more of the same. great drilling results, muted response, gold bulls forever hopeful, spx overalued but so what, blah blah
    Anything that’s going to happen with gold, likely by mid morning and then a flounder. Best to watch the paint dry.

  10. On September 14, 2021 at 7:56 am,
    jonsyl says:

    add to KL calls of last week, bought nem calls. just in case, another trip below 1800 before 1830 will depart on a tight stop.
    maybe time to give some benefit of doubt in here. after all it is september

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