If you’re investing in gold stocks right now it’s important to consider 2 things
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to discuss the gold market and gold stocks. In this boring market it’s all about stock picking and investment time frame.
Dollar Update (lime/pink = hidden gaps):
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/09/dollar-this-week.html
No, you’re not going to be in an uptrend the lack of confidence has not set in yet. We need a stock market getting hammered with no recovery insight. So ya, I agree with Jordan because this could go on for a few years until confidence breaks and the stock market rolls over and buying the dips turns into a complete disaster for those that are doing this.
Then, you have tax loss selling right here. Doesn’t look good for the bulls. We need to get past November and maybe mid December.
Comprendo ?
LAST ONE OUT, PLEASE TURN OUT THE LIGHTS !!!!!
This was a very interesting discussion today with Jordan about navigating the turbulent waters of these markets when much of the PM sector has corrected, and which kinds of stocks he has his eyes on at this point.
As for the topic of buying into weakness, even if there may be further downside, versus waiting for a more confirmed uptrend that misses a great deal of the turn and initial jolt higher, is really up to each individual investor’s unique risk tolerance, time horizon, position sizing and allocation, what method they use to get into positions (all at once or in tranches), and whether they are active traders or buy & hold investors.
I agree with Jordan’s point that if there is 200-300% potential upside, but only 10-20% downside, then that would be a very attractive risk/reward set up. He also made the point that if someone does plan on buying and holding for years, and believe there will be a strong bull market, then they can ignore the short-term volatility and any transitory weakness, for the longer term thesis to play out. Bingo.
The alternative is watching a sector turn around and blast higher, and missing out on those 200% or 300%+ moves in the early part of the move, and then being forced to chase things higher or to watch it all play out on the sidelines.
We see this very thing happen over and over again in the markets, like the 8 month surge higher in the miners from Jan – Aug of 2016, or the Q1 run in 2017 and Q1 run of 2018, or the move out of the fall lows in 2018 into mid 2019, or the move from summer of 2019 into 2020, or the move from the March 2020 pandemic crash through early this year, or the move up off the double bottom in March of 2021 for a few month after that for an easy tradable rally.
There is plenty of opportunity out there but buying low isn’t easy, and waiting for an obvious breakout to the upside like a move in Silver above $30 or in Gold above $1921 or $1962-$1966, or for many generalists… waiting for a new higher high above $2089 will have left multi-bagger gains on the table. Yes, it sucks to get positioned early and have a 30% or 40% drawdown in a position, but it doesn’t suck nearly as bad as missing a 300% or 400% surge in a position. It would take most investors a decade or two to make returns like that, but they can happen in this sector in mere months or in a year or two. “You gotta be in it to win it.” It is tragically comic that at bottoms all the bears are out saying a breakout move will never happen, when no downtrend is forever, and then when the breakouts come, and they are not positioned, then they finally (A) get bullish way late to the party chasing things higher or (B) never get positioned and watch from the sidelines thinking things are overdone.
Being careful to limit risk is important, and even straight-up caution is wise in volatile sectors like commodity miners, but using technical analysis is also key, as is understanding the macro fundamentals of the sector and individual companies in one’s portfolio and one’s watchlist.
There is no great reason to buy all in one plop either unless someone is 99% sure a turn is underway. It is far less risky to scale into a position in 2/3/4/5 tranches to obtain a good cost basis during weak periods, and that is the biggest key there is… buying low.
Can shares go lower, sure they can, but if someone is convinced of a longer term fundamental thesis playing ou,t then adding another tranche even lower to bring the cost basis down, or just holding through weakness will lead to large returns if someone is truly in the investment for 2-3 year period of time with the right macro backdrop.
Shorter-term trading is slightly different, but even then if one uses TA and fundamentals to assist with entry points, and has a cogent expectation on the risk/reward set up, then gains can be harvested even in larger correction period or sideways markets. Of course, downside risks can be limited with stop loss or limit orders, or sticking to the TA system one is using, but investors need to take personal accountability if they don’t sell or trim on a sell signal or bad news, or don’t buy and add on a technical buy signal or good news.
This is not investment advice and everyone should find their own system that works for them, but these are just some reflections after this interview with Jordan today that were on my mind.
>> A perfect example just played out for all to see in the Uranium stocks, since the March 2020 pandemic crash, and then again coming out of the resource stock weakness in March of 2021 through present.
This was one of the most obvious moves to position in the resource sector and was a generational buying opportunity, and there has been PLENTY of time to get positioned in Uranium stocks on pullbacks over the last few years, and whipsaw markets with tradable rallies to sell into and corrections down to buy into. In reading the comments on many sites, there were longer term value investors also scaling into positions on pullbacks since the Uranium sector bottomed in late 2016 – late 2017.
Heck even in 2019 and 2020 there were great setups to add to U stocks for investors that understood the macro fundamentals of the sector that it was not a matter of “IF” but rather a matter of “WHEN” the sector would move higher. Personally I’d been trading around core positions for years and still scalping gains with swing trades, but preparing for better times, so when the Pandemic crash happened in 2020 I was buying UUUU, URG, UEC, DNN, NXE, AZZ, etc… with both hands, because they did “go on sale” with huge corrective moves. When I mentioned that publicly or privately, many people thought it was silly and preferred to wait until Uranium was back to $50+ and the new contracting cycle had started, so that it was a “confirmed breakout.” That’s what makes a market.
Then as the Uranium miners climbed off their lows like most sectors, they continued and got even more peppy the end of 2020 and leading into 2021, when the PMs were still under pressure. Many came out and said that move had gotten ahead of itself, and it had a bit, and I agreed and trimmed back U stocks in January of this year. However, when they dipped back down in March with most of the resource sector, I bought back some of those partial tranches I had sold for a better cost basis, while most wanted to wait for a bigger washout that never came. For those that wanted to see a confirmed uptrend, then did they get in during April/May/June when the stocks started climbing again? (Probably not)
It was clear from the prior year’s action that we were in the next leg of the uptrend in both Uranium price and the Uranium miners anticipation, and the volumes had been much larger than anything we’d seen in a decade, confirming big money was getting positioned. Tons of news came out about the few remaining producers and even a half dozen non-producers buying in the spot market to clear up supply overhang, which clearly led to even higher prices and tipping point coming where price would need to respond by moving even higher… which it did.
Then the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust announced taking over Uranium Participation Corp, and they telegraphed they were going to do “At The Market” financings to fund purchases of even more Uranium out of the spot markets and it was clear this would move the U308 prices even higher…. and boy did it!
The markets, being forward looking, caused Uranium miners to start moving after digesting this news, and then getting supercharged once the spot price responded very sharply.
Now fast forward to the last few weeks where Uranium stocks broke out even more and rocketed up even higher than they already had over the last year, and it has become a mania in the U stocks with the WallStreet Bets / Reddit / Robinhood / WeBull / Stash mobs flocking into the sector.
The key question is this: Did all those people that were waiting for a confirmation of the uptrend get positioned when the stocks started breaking out in 2020, in mid 2021, or at least on this recent move higher?
Maybe some did, but they missed the easiest 300%-1000% gains since the March 2020 pandemic crash, and then the recent 150%-300% gains just in the last month or so.
THAT WAS THE EASY MONEY to be made, and those that missed those gains over the last year and half, had all the time in the world to get positioned for a buy and hold strategy long before these moves played out.
It makes the case beautifully that even if they timed it wrong and their stocks corrected for 6 months or a year by 20% or 40%, who cares? Even if they had not been active traders and just bought and held and were wrong for short time period, when those stocks finally got their grove on and moved up it was much better to be positioned than to try to chase up stocks that kept climbing by double-digits many days, just because it was finally a “confirmed uptrend.”
The exact same thing played out in Lithium and Copper, where buying into the weakness was rewarded in a major way with multi-fold returns over the last year, even if the sectors may have sold down for a period of a few months or even a year. Getting those outsized gains from 2020 into 2021 when the macro fundamentals suddenly became more obvious, were the easy money in those sectors as well.
The very same thing will eventually play out with Silver or Gold stocks, when the sector finally does take off – just like Uranium, Lithium, Palladium, and Copper just did.
So even if people are bummed that their stocks may have sold off by more than they anticipated in this corrective move; they are at least positioned for when the tide comes in. The reality is most investors struggle with buying low, and then love to dog-pile in once the easy money is made and things have already gone up multiple fold. That kind of typical investor behavior lacks logic, and runs on emotions, but it is not the recipe for good returns. As a result, trend chasers get in near intermediate peaks, and then get stuck holding the bag, instead of buying before those moves and selling into those peaks. Conversely, since they added way too late in the move higher, they don’t sell at the peaks, and ride things right down into corrective moves, and then blame the sector, or cabals, instead of blaming themselves for poor entries and exits.
Most investors claim they want to buy low, but then don’t do it wanting a confirmation of the uptrend on the larger monthly charts, and by that time most of the turn and surge higher has already played out and they are stuck chasing higher, or worse, paralyzed by the move higher and stuck watching from the sideline as the rally plays out.
Steve Penny made an excellent point at the end of his interview yesterday, that he believes the move we just saw play out in Uranium miners, is a good analog for what could happen to the Silver stocks when that tiny sector catches a bid. Just something to think about.
Got #Uranium stocks?
Here’s a dirty dozen U miners on the #CandleGlance #Chart of just the last 2 months:
$URNM $CCJ $UUUU $URG $UEC $DNN $NXE $AZZ $EU $UEX $ISO $GLO
Add 1164:HK to that list, gone from .93-1.50HKD just this week alone.
Thanks Terry. I’ll add 1164:HK to my Uranium watchlist.
There are absolutely more Uranium mining stocks that also surged besides the one’s included on that chart. Stockcharts only permits me to fit 12 on one of those candle glance charts, so I tried to keep it to the dozen most widely followed and traded stocks for investors here.
Most of the 60 U stocks have had a really good year and a half, and also participated in the recent next leg higher the last few weeks. Exciting times in the Uranium space.
We’ll, all depends on how much money you want to risk. The odds of making much more money it’ll be a much better after December. Michael Oliver has been a trader for 40 years. He’s expecting a parabolic move to the upside. Kind of what I’m thinking and my thesis. Everyone will be left out. Gold bull doesn’t accommodate too many people. Still, we need a loss of confidence and we don’t have that yet. Tax loss selling is here and doesn’t look good for the bulls. The odds are really bad right now.
Good thoughts Holy Grail. Yes, the point of the above rants, and to your point, is that investors that do well are positioned before or at least relatively early in parabolic move. It doesn’t even need to be a bubble-like parabolic move, and is as simple as getting positioned before or early on in technical breakout impulse leg to the upside.
The other alternative is that hesitating investors do get “left out” and watch from the sidelines and become bashers, or they get stuck chasing a rising trend that has left off long ago. In fencing, in dating, and in investing “He who hesitates is lost.”
By the time an uptrend or reversal shows up on the monthly charts, after several monthly candles, and those 200 month or even 50 month moving averages catch up, then most of the easy money has already been made. They are great for reviewing the larger trend, but not the best for capturing trading gains in such a volatile sector.
As for tax loss selling, much of it has already happened this year based on the rough patch the last few months in the miners, and wise investors used those tax loss sales to wash out other capital gains, waited 30 days for the wash period to be through, and the will get reinvested for the next leg higher once they determine most of the downside is priced in, and that the potential risk/reward of the upside is more appealing.
So ya Ex, I’m far from being pessimistic I’m with Michael Oliver. With my experience tax loss selling it lasts into mid December possibly.
I’m expecting lower prices for the miners. There’s no lack of confidence either setting in until that stock market breaks hard and refuses to recover.
Understood Holy Grail, and I took your comment more as short-term concerned, but longer term bullish if I understood it correctly. Yes, I agree with you and Michael Oliver that when the breakout move does come many will be left behind.
As outlined in the long rants above, we saw people get left behind in most of the PM prior bullish impulse legs, (and got left behind with Lithium, Palladium, Copper, Nickel, and Uranium).
In each instance, people doubted a commodity or sector vehemently during the good window of time to be buying during the weakness, doubted it when the move higher lifted off (still wanting more confirmation), and only conceded after a run much higher that it was a good buy in hindsight but that nobody could have seen it coming. Haha! 🙂 The real issue was that they failed to buy low.
In all of those commodity runs higher, and all the prior PM rallies we’ve seen for years, investors that hesitated and didn’t buy into weakness either watched it happen from the sidelines and missed it, or chased the rallies higher long after it was overly obvious and the big money had been made. Then they remarked about how surprised they were and how fast things changed when it ran higher. (WTF? That’s why it’s called a breakout) Some things never change…. especially herd behavior. Very few investors are true contrarians when all is said and done.
This is why we hear people moan on and on about the long corrections (because they didn’t buy low allowing them to weather the storm, and likely bought way too high and had bigger drawdowns). These same whining investors missed most of the tradable rallies, or areas for longer term accumulation, so they are quick to dismiss them, and assume everyone else bought the top like they did and just focus on the total move down. Then when things turn, base, and suddenly rip higher, they moan that it’s in a bubble and doesn’t make sense. That’s what makes a market. Rinse and Repeat…
Ex, regarding being a contrarian there is a lot to that. Sometimes, it takes a long time for that contrarian trade to come to fruition. That’s a lot longer than a lot of people had planned. With gold, that’s a real long wait being a contrarian it can be a decade or even more.
Then we have the trend as your friend. Some of us strong contrarians can miss out because we’re too focused on taking the opposite side of the trade.
Gold is contrarian the public radar screen is completely off gold. However, it could be a few more years and that’s problem and everybody’s been waiting and waiting and waiting so that’s just the way it goes in the contrarian world of investing.
Good points Holy Grail. Yes, being a 10 year contrarian is no fun at all. LOL!
This is the advantage of using technical analysis to help with shorter term entries and exits for swing trading the dull sideways periods or even downward stretches. However, not everyone is as interested in being a trader, and it takes a lot of time, education, and experience to get good at it, which isn’t always practical for many investors life schedules or interest. Still, understanding the macro fundamental setup in the larger economy, the specific sector, and specific companies helps narrow down the timing window some, but then using TA for acquiring during weak oversold periods is helpful even for longer term value investors like you or Doc.
The key is having a systematic approach that works for the investor, some basic parameters for when to buy/sell, buying low, and having some patience for the thesis to play out. Cheers!
Ex, depends on what your trading style is. I’ll just give you what mine is if that’s okay I’m into the trend. I want to catch a huge move in gold for example. I just haven’t seen it except for the ups and downs. That’s going to change possibly fairly soon a move that will just blow your socks right off that’s what I’m looking for. I have a fairly sizeable core position so I’m just not fully all in with every single dollar that’s available in the creel. I’m not exactly 100%, but I would have to say that we might see a really sizable bottom in this tax selling season. With that being said gold could make its big move shortly after. The loss of confidence is coming and even with the new world reserve currency through China it’s just going to be an explosive situation. That’s when I go in for the jugular after the tax selling season is over. Looks very likely right now. Gold futures and gold mining shares will just literally explode. It’s as close to a Bitcoin scenario as possible. Uraniums looking extremely excellent it’s already made a move and it goes against my trading rules so that’s out of the question. Although, that could be the ticket. In my view, the train’s already left the station on that one.
Good thoughts Holy Grail and thanks for sharing your take on things and what your personal strategy is. It’s always interesting to hear how others approach the markets and we can all learn a lot from one another.
I agree with you that Gold does best when there is a loss of confidence in government and central bank policy, and we are edging closer and closer to that day of reckoning. As for the change that will blow our socks off soon, with a big run higher, that sounds pretty good, but also means things have become even more turbulent out there. These are definitely interesting times.
Things are lining up quite nicely Ex. That’s as long as there’s no external events that can shift things in a dramatic catastrophic direction.
We’re creating all this debt into existence that they call money printing however someones going to have to pay for it all. We have plenty of evidence that an explosive move in gold is coming and there’s a lot of very highly influential wealthy individuals that are gearing up.
Regardless of the lackluster performance. Quite frankly, doesn’t bother me at all. Main reason because I’m not anxious to make a lot of money. The challenge is fascinating moving all the chess pieces around.
This is going to be the biggest bull market in gold in most likely world history. It’s going to be vital to know when to stop trading it and staying fully invested riding the bull. That’s my investment strategy I don’t want to trade myself out of the biggest bull market in world history. The quality of the gold mining companies won’t matter. When it takes off the cheaper the shares the better. They will be the best performing reaping much greater multiples.
Agreed.
There isn’t 2 things to consider, as the title of this interview suggests, but only one thing to consider: selling and staying out of PM stocks for at least 2 months.
Looking very clear to me that gold will be getting a big selloff coming soon, probably right after the debt ceiling situation is resolved.
Only pain and disappointment on the menu for PMs in the near future.
There you go Joe. Everything’s being taking out to the woodshed today. Next few months is going to be awfully rough. That’s where I have the odds right now and it’s shaping up that way.
Some one said… 40 yrs. experience…. should say ,one year experience 40 times… lol…
+40 Good one OOTB!
In all seriousness though Michael Oliver is brilliant, and his trend and momentum analysis, developed after 40 years trading is incredibly well informed and I place a great deal of value in Michael’s technical outlook, like H.G. mentioned.
Michael Oliver is extremely brilliant. 40 years of trading including futures and big blocks. When I listen to Michael Oliver there’s no BS at all because I have the hands on experience myself trading futures and big blocks. Michael Oliver just isn’t an analyst he has fourty years of experience under his belt.
100% Michael is brilliant and a pro.
I think we can count on a parabolic move too at some point I agree with Michael Oliver on that. Should be very very dramatic too. 🤞 The new world reserve currency with China is no joke it’s getting closer every day. We can see gold easily over $5000 in New York second.
Michael Oliver sees $8000 fairly quickly.
He blew the cup and handle….. over a year ago…. and project a lot higher gold price that particular year… we have traded sideways since that point… one heck of a long handle… , I will have to go back and pull up the article, … I based some info. on his call… just saying… Taking nothing away from the guy… just info… 🙂
project… projected….
The action in precious metals has everyone confused although we were losing confidence and then the stock market comes back. So I believe technically we’re still working on the cup and handle. Regardless, we still need a loss of confidence. We’re not there yet. Like Jordan was saying it probably will come within a couple years. That’s being wise and not expecting anything here in the near future because you don’t know. They keep kicking the can down the road.
The stock market needs to go down and stay down !!!! That’s a loss in confidence. Or most likely too, China’s new world reserve currency that’s a very real possibility.
Jerry,
I’m glad you brought this up! Holy is talking out of his arse. For starters ex great summary in your first post and well balanced approach on the overall percentages of investing here and now obviously in tranches and cost averaging. So well said.
Now going back to home and his approach as well as his guru, you are blowing smoke. For years and years Mr Oliver blew calls like no tomorrow and like many other shot callers is in the game for news letters and making money. I’m not discrediting his knowledge, outlook for the future etc but please don’t come on here and try and sell me on Oliver and his chaotic predictions of which he has made for years like many others to the moon via king world news etc. He has been saying $5000 $8000 gold $200 silver for years and never has happened. His timing has been abysmal just as much as my guru Peter Schiff but the difference is I don’t pump it or use literally what they say to invest in my approach. Believe me I lost money in my early years listening to these over the top projections because they don’t provide accurate timelines and because corrections kill you in between. Not you, your neighbor, Oliver, Peter, King Kong or anyone knows exactly with accuracy when the bottom will come. If it was that simple we would all be billionaires.
Folks what ex mentioned is well said. What holy said regarding more downside is possible, but what I don’t see playing out is having to wait for a stock market crash and loss of confidence for the miners to go higher. We all know very well of the market crashed it would initially take down the miners probably for another 3-6 months and that would put evaluations so far down and it would be a very nasty place to be. I don’t see it as we have corrected over a year now and the bleeding has already been catastrophic in some cases. Whatever it maybe the miners are very close to a turn even if it means a bit more downside. When it turns everyone will be telling you that caught the bottom but many wont tell you they bought much higher prices.
I’ve been a buyer as of late. The other day I purchased iamgold and I’m glad I did getting some good prices in the 2.75/2.85 area. I also added to another two stocks. Can they go mower again maybe but I like my core prices and positions.
4% left and watching brixton to add more if we break .14…
Best of luck to all
Glen, you’re exaggerating completely because Michael Oliver link below did not call for gold of $8,000 for years and $200 silver that’s a recent call in the last eight weeks.
https://investtalk-lisa.blogspot.com/2020/07/michael-oliver-no-correction-for-gold.html?m=1
Michael Oliver was right about his 2100 call pretty much on gold and then a correction. He did miss on the upside of 2600. That was in July 2020 and I believe that’s probably the cup and handle Jerry was talking about.
Glen, pull up the facts and act with better integrity because this is completely a smear campaign against me and Michael Oliver. Where is the $8000 and $200 silver call has not been going on for years.
TAKE YOUR BS OUT OF HERE GLEN !!!!
Hi Glenfidish. Thanks for the kind words and for sharing your take on the set up in the markets, how a selloff in the general markets would affect the PM sector, what signals you are watching for a turn, and the levels you are looking for in Iamgold and Brixton to add another tranche.
Thanks GLEN………. for the mention…. 🙂
HOLLY……. yes, to the comment on MO, concerning the cup and Handle… that is what I was referring …
Seems to me, the crooks at the COMEX, and London… have it all handled… lol…
Silver is in a funk……… and still not out of it’s LONG TERM …. cup and handle.. check the charts., long term…. $50 marks the spot, until that is broken, not a good sign… for $200. ..
but, if, you can buy it for $20… I think everyone will do fine. in 10 yrs….
And the pm stock even more so…. for those who are trading… that know their stuff, will do even better…. JMO
And remember….. NO BODY KNOWS ANYTHING.. FOR SURE……. 🙂
Except ….. everyone dies… no one gets out of here alive… 🙂
I guess , I should correct the above…
Holly…. to Holy…. 🙂
Hey, an old time favourite of mine…
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=holly+holy+neil+diamond
music always a good thing…. 🙂
subject to the brand. of course… lol … 🙂
Glen, you’re also incorrect regarding loss of confidence. In addition to that, if the valuations on the miners stay where they are at these depressed levels they will go in the opposite direction to the upside. There’s very little downside left as long as they don’t start to rally and then starts a stock market crash. Without a loss of confidence that includes the stock market precious metals are going to stay range bound they’re never going to break out of this range. I suppose if the stock market really started to hyperinflate there’s an outside chance of that, it’s already doing it and then gold could catch on fire possibly. We live in a world turned completely upside down, toxic policies on steroids of the FED and everything is completely distorted.
I only mentioned Michael Oliver because the scenario he’s put forward is about in line with what I’m thinking over the next few years.
Also, taking consideration that 1900 is a big threshold and a line in the sand. It’s going to need a pretty big catalyst to break through it with much higher prices in the future= LOSS OF CONFIDENCE.
THERE’S SOME GREAT PERILS OUT THERE AND SOME TREMENDOUS HEADWINDS THAT COULD DERAIL EVERYTHING. In addition to everything above, everyone should prepare for that too. External life threatening situations and very dangerous times.
Thats the thing with PMs, concerning Jerrys in ten years, its always in the future.
I remember the silver guru 10-15 years ago? saying 2020 was the year for silver to go thru the roof.
Nope, its always in the future.
I own more than I can carry, thats enuff for me.
I havnt bought silver now for years, except for canadian silver dollars I find under spot.
What can I say? I like them.
Glen, like many here, you don’t realize that Oliver’s price predictions are just his guesses and have nothing to do with the calls that people pay for. Oliver turned bearish gold when it mattered 10 years ago and then turned bullish in early 2016 when certain yahoos here just blew it and thought gold was going lower. I’ve seen the old issues of his newsletter in which he made those calls.
b……..In ten years…….. silver will not be $20….. depend on it…. 🙂
Holy,
You seem to have anger issues! I’m not sure if your in the rabbit hole or what is tickling you but the moment your guru mentioned $8000 gold and $200 silver in less then 12 months well that call goes to the garbage in my opinion. No way Jose lol.. This by all means does not discredit Oliver and his knowledge it’s all the timing and crazy calls to the moon. I’m not perfect by any means but I don’t through ridiculous numbers with 12 months or 2 years since his statement.
You want credibility give us some 😉
Matthew
I’m not discrediting oliver it’s just I’m personally tired of all the gurus and to the moon exaggerated prices with 12 months or 24 months like $8000. I find that way far fetched. Let’s focus on what is in front of us and way more significant levels we need to break through before we can entertain these calls.
For the record I’m a buyer here and have not and will not sell shites!
Glen, I seem to have anger issues ? I’m just being firm because if your faults accusations and your derogatory wording. That’s very malicious of you. Let’s stay on the real issue regarding Michael Oliver.
Eventually, he expects to see $8,000 to $10,000 in gold by the end of 2022 and $200 or so in silver. Oliver also anticipates a severe decline in the stock market by then and a sharp-up move in commodities in general.
Apparently, I didn’t realize it but this prediction is about 6 months to 9 months old at the very most.
Glen, we are not at the end of 2022 stop exaggerating everything. Your judgment and integrity is completely misplaced. WE ARE NOT AT THE END OF 2022.
I DON’T CARE WHAT YOU’RE TIRED OF GLEN. YOUR MISCONSTRUING, FABRICATING AND BEING VERY MALICIOUS.
The last surge in metal prices silver,copper etc came from china.
China is going to mine Afghanistan, they are close to mining planets and asteroids, jp morgan may begin selling the biggest hoard of silver ever assembled at any time.
China isnt in the same position they were years ago.
The next surge might require a drop in american dollar purchasing power, who knows?
On the other hand, maybe the american federal reserve and central banks have a plan and the purchasing power of the dollar increases, its a global thing no? Maybe China and Russia are completly compliant with everything.
I just think the future is tuff to predict.
Glen, you said you’re not trying to discredit Oliver. WHAT !!!
All you did was criticize him. You don’t even know him. You can’t get any story straight, can you. Talk about being hypocritical whoa nelly. Running your smear campaign against me and Oliver based on BS and falsified information.
For those following (PGE) Group Ten Metals, they put out a new company fact sheet today, and had a nice pop of 15%. Nice!!
https://www.grouptenmetals.com/site/assets/files/3682/2021_09-15_pge_fact_sheet_-_final.pdf
I’ve been in Group Ten for as long as ………….? So much for that rant, but it really has been dead money. I do much better when I keep money moving rather than leave it in a stock that I know has promise, but doesn’t do anything. For me it’s better to hold a small position move my money around but keep myself interested enough to watch the action and then jump when I spot interest.
That’s a fine strategy to keep you money moving DT. As for Group Ten, I’m holding and have been patient with it as my largest Palladium/Platinum/Rhodium/Nickel position because I believe as they put out their drill results from their on-going 10,000 meter exploration program, that they have the potential of putting out a few barn burners. Also, they should have a resource coming out soon (which will summarize the prior year’s drill programs, but won’t include this year’s drill program results, so they’ll be more upside). We’ll see how it goes but the resource estimate and drill assays are 2 good catalysts on the horizon.
Hi Ex, If I had your money, I would also Buy Right and Sit Tight! Once Group Ten gets going look out! DT
I would like more Group Ten also. My problem is I would like to buy more of a lot of stuff or just buy them But, I look at my holdings and I don’t want to sell any. Today I am working on picking up more Labrador, but again it is like pulling teeth to make the swap. I am almost doing the trade just because they smash the stock without any consideration of value. It is just not an issue with them. I would run them over with my car but there are drawbacks to that also.
(KDK) Kodiak Copper; Diving into Copper Market Conditions & Some Exciting Company updates
Yup. Sold some urc warrants today and bought more kdk. If Claudia is willing to keep buying more at these levels before the late September/early October drill results who am I to disagree….travel the world and the seven seas everybody’s looking for something……sorry a song came in my head during these happy days.😎
Hey Wolfster. Haha! Yes, sweet dreams are made of these….
It was nice to see Claudia buying more shares, and always a good indicator when management is buying along side investors at current prices. She is a very sharp lady and wouldn’t be investing more of her hard earned money personally if she didn’t like the set up and what they are seeing as they keep exploring.
Cheers!
General question: Is the level of exploration/drilling etc. greater now or about the same as other comparable periods? … Basis for question: Supply/Demand
It depends on the commodity, but overall the exploration companies, developers, and producers are more cashed up than they’ve been in over a decade, with some of the largest drill campaigns I remember seeing. Most of the companies we talk to have commented they are undergoing their largest drill programs to date, or upsizing financings to extend drill programs, etc…
We’ve already seen the exploration news start ramping up, but we are going to see droves of drill news for many many months as the assay labs are so backed up that it may take 2 or even 3 months to get some results back in and reported.
As for how much supply this creates, it depends on who finds it, and if they make an economic discovery. If a growth-oriented producer hits with the drill bit then they can monetize it most quickly, and that’s why I like producers with good exploration upside best. Developers can use good drilling to update their resource estimates or economic studies for a better valuation, and explorers can wave their arms and the biggest pops on drill news, but explorers also have the biggest drops when reality sets in that it may or may not be as big or as economic as initially hoped for.
I’m really hoping we see some bonafide discoveries made from all of this massive wave of exploration going on in many commodity miners, as the sector needs it to spark a little life in that side of the equation.
I was thinking more of Gold, and what the demand picture will be with increased supply.
Also, note how the prospective final run up in URNM nears 50% of the total move: https://postimg.cc/Hr0FhyX4. It’s very interesting that this ETF was initiated just a few months before the March 2020 take down (Reset?).
Based on how quickly the gold producers are depleting their ounces, there needs to be a lot more gold discovered, and these are some of the largest drill programs in 2021 that I can remember. Looking forward to a few new discoveries being made in this metals cycle.
I’d say cashed up and greater drilling than any recent years but chances of finding a huge mother lode deposit are less likely as most of them have already been discovered
Agreed. Cashed up, drilling like crazy, but exploration is tough. One part science, and one part luck. Even if a discovery is made there are many other considerations, (depth, social license, permitting, cost of extraction, infrastructure, power, water, etc…) We’ll see how it goes.
Good points !!
Silver looks great versus gold (and dollars) and is probably heading higher tomorrow.
Here’s a 60 minute SLV:GLD chart if the link works this time as it has occasionally in the past (stockcharts is weird about sharing intraday charts)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=t6434268044c&a=1027039647&r=1631763851126&cmd=print
An interesting comparison is GLD : UDN (YTD).
Note topping on June 1st : https://postimg.cc/t7VJ2w3j
Widest spread early March, decreasing for the second low.
NEWS REQUEST BACKFIRES: OVER 40,000 PEOPLE POSTED ABOUT COVID ‘VACCINES’ KILLING & MAIMING FAMILY AND FRIENDS ON FACEBOOK
https://www.bitchute.com/video/TfknxTVl4YMX/
You’ll need to pause this video a lot to read the comments.
I did have to pause that a lot to read all those comments. Looks like the deluge of responses back to that news station didn’t fit with their narrative nor that of the MSM.
Did some WXYZ-Detroit employee simply slip up or is higher level resistance forming?
BitChute is a video hosting service launched by Ray Vahey in January 2017. It is known for accommodating far-right individuals and conspiracy theorists, and for hosting hate speech. Wikipedia
Wikipedia is know for its leftist propaganda. More importantly, Bitchute has nothing to do with the content above while Wikipedia lies all the time.
The clip I posted also happens to be on youtube but probably won’t be for long since youtube is an obvious enemy of truth just like Facebook and the rest of social media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQy_-WyZeVc&t=31s
Frankly, anyone who isn’t livid at Facebook and the rest is an idiot.
I dont use facebook so could care less about what they/it does.
I dont use tweeter,intagram or any other site like them either.
Nice to send pics back and forth tho I suppose.
It’s typical of you to miss the point. I also do not use FB or any other social media and never have but millions and millions do and YOUR SIDE BANS anyone who attempts to share there tragic experiences with the faux vaccines that are really a crime against humanity.
Crime against humanity, ya ok.
Ive heard it, the vaccines will kill us all.
Funny how many times people post on here with articles they find on the net when its all banned so people cant find info on the net.
Funny how that works no?
Will it be “typical” you miss that point?
I have no idea other than my own experience, which says all this the world coming to an end stuff is…………….nutter.
What’s really funny is how poorly your logic and reasoning skills work.
Re: “Funny how many times people post on here with articles they find on the net when its all banned so people cant find info on the net. Funny how that works no?”
What a ridiculous comment, B. You apparently do not understand that the internet is not made of or controlled by one entity. There are millions of sites that are privately owned and the biggest ones absolutely do censor the hell out of anyone telling the truth. On top of that, they brazenly and criminally allow any and all misinformation (LIES) from others as long as it furthers their agendas. They have been very successful in their efforts to scare people like you into urgently accepting completely unnecessary and dangerous chemical concoctions that are far worse than the disease. On top of that, they’ve caused millions to believe that Ivermectin not only doesn’t work but that it is dangerous. Neither could be further from the truth. It works extremely well AND is extremely effective.
We don’t need 18 months to know that the shots are horribly dangerous as you flippantly and ignorantly suggest, ALL of the MSM and big tech/social media have already hidden far more than enough evidence and countless people who were previously on your side are waking up every day as a result.
18 months does not come from me, it came from the ant vaxers here.
Deaths will be rampant in 18 months, I actually started timing from my vaccine, my mistake, vaccination started long before I got the shots.
its now 8 months and its still unvaxed people taking hospital beds.
Thx to unvaxed people kids needing surgery for cancer has been delayed, news out today.
Im sure the parents of those kids are thanking the heck outta you people.
That flippant enough?, get a friggin shot.
Your brainwashing is on full display yet you don’t have a side, lol.
I read a post on the bitchute post, “does anyone know anyone alive for 2 years after their covid shot”?
Has the shot been out for 2 years?
I see no worries about the vaccine, if its true everyone dies from it within 18 months, o well, if we dont see bodies piled up, we know it was all bs.
Time will tell.
I know of hundreds of people in my community, old and wrinkled, all have both shots, their families and friends received shots from what Im told, nobody died.
I can only speak from my personal experience, the shots work.
If I die in the next months I will let the site no. 😉
B, you see no worries about the shot because your “side” is so good at filtering out the facts. It is criminal and DESPICABLE and you should be ashamed.
Thats just it with you people Mathew, you have a “side”, I dont.
Im simply saying what my experience is, sorry its not the medical community wants to kill us all, the pharmisutical companies are only after cash, and the vaccine companies want to kill billions.
I think that thinking is DESPICABLE and you should be ashamed to be honust, I just havnt said it.
Its the people not getting vaccinated that causes this pandemic to continue.
On the other hand, if your “side” is right there are no worries, all the idiots will be dead and the intelligence of our species will increase, thats gotta be a good thing. 😉
Wrong, B. You absolutely have a side and it is cult-like.
Re: “Its the people not getting vaccinated that causes this pandemic to continue.”
Absolute, 100% COMPLETE HORSESHIT. You’ve been brainwashed like so many millions of others because you can’t think and are unable or unwilling to dig for the truth in any serious way.
b…. your statement on UNVAXXED……. is BS…. PERIOD….
YOUR QUOTE….” to be honust, I just havnt said it.
Its the people not getting vaccinated that causes this pandemic to continue.”
Of course Mathew, I disagree with you and the other antivax people here.
I see you people as cult like. being gentle I use the word “nutter”, I like that word 😉
But, Im not sure of anything, Ive heard and read both “sides” opinions for months, the only way to find out who is correct is to see if people start dying in droves in a few months.
As I said, from my experience the vaccines work well.
B, you prove which one of us is “cult like” with comments like that. If you had done your homework rather than sucking up propaganda, you’d know that this has nothing to do with ANY of the vaccines of the past and that these covid jabs aren’t vaccines at all. You’d also know that your side is absolutely NOT following science and that the jabs are indeed EXTREMELY dangerous.
Insults far from convince Mathew.
Jerry, I no your position, same as Mathews it seems, we all gonna die so the global cabal can get rich.
I got it. So will have anyone else that happened along.
You been saying the same thing for months.
Yes b……. I have been saying it for months….. and a lot more info. uncovers the SCAM DAILY…. see ya… 🙂
B, you can be insulted by facts if you wish, that’s ok.
I’m 73, super healthy and strong and I don’t want any vaccine screwing that up.
So my point would be, I don’t want any government asshole telling me I must be vaccinated.
Ditto……Terry………. EXACTLY….
Well said, Terry. Those government assholes are as stupid as they are criminal. Tens of millions of slimy little collectivists have become exactly what they pretend to hate but are too stupid and barbaric to realize it.
Red candles began at 2:00 AM EST. Probably JPM London or somebody’s cat.
That is exactly when the Dollar Index turned northward.
General markets must be in trouble…constant 45 degree walk down in metals all night. Hit us when volume is weakest. The only ones selling are the ones in the phony paper market. The reasons to buy metals are overwhelming. The dollar is worthless and inflation growing. The lipstick on the pig is running.
Todays economic stats (jobs, initial jobless, retail sales ….) are weal and artificial. Garbage is all we get…
Weal = weak, data is weal also
All the actors on CNBC have their dogs and ponies on steroids…
Latest Dollar Update: https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/09/dollar-this-week.html
Current high: 92.9653
And the verdict is in on gold. Hate to say it, but so much for all the pitchforks, positive technicals blah blah. Nothing like watching paint dry until there is a catylst. Now you can double down again, and rationalize benefits of a hold forever.
the silvers hit badly with 10% plus drops, cde, hl, etc, so much for silver outperformance touted over and over again. Classic suck in of those in the know.
kitco gold down roughly 2.5%, silver down near a double 4.58% with this post
With this blood bath “investors” will sell this segment on any price increase to get rid of the trash bringing their portfolios down. Who is willing to hang in now for a big increase with this chart and sentiment damage?
Does anyone have a spare operational time machine? I only have to go back a couple months.
BBB, DEF, KTN and JAG all making new 52 week lows in my portfolio, who has the nerve to hang in when we all know the Fed talking heads will come out and say they will taper soonish again?
Hi Dan,
No doubt the sector is under pressure with Gold down to $1753 and Silver finally outperforming (but to the downside) at $22.68.
I’m willing to hang in now in most of my positions and will not be selling into weakness, but rather, will be taking a little bit of my recent profits from the Uranium stocks and plowing them into the sell down that is unfolding. DEF and JAG are actually 2 of the ones I’m considering, amongst others.
As mentioned in my rants towards the top of this blog, what is hardest for investors to do is “buy low”. There may still be lower to go, but I consider selloff like this big opportunities for accumulation points for quality names in the space.
Ever Upward!
I’m fully committed to the pm market now as I sold my uranium holdings too soon to get the full price movement in that sector. I have been ‘bored’ out of too many positions before they took off and completed their run so this time it is about riding the bollinger bands up, if there is ‘up’ left… haha!;-)
Haha! Yeah, I hear ya Dan, and it has been a tough market lately, especially in the PMs.
Yeah, what has saved my hind end over the last year has been sector rotation in my portfolio, and harvesting gains in one sector to move them to another. Earlier in the year I pulled some profits in Uranium, Lithium, Palladium, and Copper stocks, (as well as some crypto profits) to move into other tradable rallies in the PMs, clean energy, and battery stocks. Then I sold the battery stocks and clean energy stocks to rotate into PMs.
Thank goodness for harvesting the vast majority of my gains in Uranium stocks from Friday through yesterday on Wednesday, as I’m now going to need to plow even more into this PM sell down, and will likely pull some funds from deep savings to reinforce the U stocks when they correct down a bit more at a later date.
So far today I’ve sold and parted with weak laggard positions like GR Silver, Highgold, Galane, and Triumph, sold a profitable green position in Electrovaya, and blew out my IJT small cap growth ETF to free up funds.
So far today I have bought to reinforce my higher conviction stocks like Hecla, Coeur, Endeavour Silver, Santacruz Silver, Impact Silver, Alexco, Vizsla Silver, Silver Tiger, Defiance Silver for Silver, and then Alamos, Calibre, Galiano, Jaguar, Wallbridge, Integra, and Maverix Metals for Gold.
By the looks of it, just like in all the proceeding market crashes, most investors don’t really have the stones to be contrarians, and when the fishing line selloffs appear they run for the hills instead of running for the bid.
I haven’t sold a single share of my tiny cap juniors. It’s “interesting” that the silver stocks are hardly providing any leverage to silver today (SIL is down 5.3% while SLV is down 4.7%).
reaction into mid morning and then the flounder for rest of day as has most often been the case.
This needs to recover fast for any hope. A lingering slippery slope of hope with technical babble gab ain’t the answer
Walk down continues but in small increments. No “fat finger”, whoops or other unintended actions. On its face it is a purposeful act ignoring fundamentals and technicals for an agenda of protecting “special interests”. I guess they are avoiding being accused of running stops and exposing themselves to being accused of corrupt and illegal manipulation. Regulators are submitting job applications to Wall Street.
I am holding and watching. Maybe rotating some holdings…like Labrador had some good drill results today and got smashed.
LOL, ya, the guesses as to “here we go” really havnt worked out.
What happened to sept was a good month for PMs?
this is worse than …waterboarding….. 🙂
Worse than?
Worse would be tptb have decided its time to change from gold to cryptos.
Just to mess with China, India and Russia.
Notice bitcoin holding firm?
Young people seem tired of PMs, its only a matter of time now anyway.
Young people are the victims of misinformation about a lot of things.
Ditto David….
the youth are going to be wiped out…. one stroke of a key board… and ZERO…
I obviously like PMs, but I know people choose their currency.
If El Salvidor and Ukraine show benifits from using bitcoin, how long till other nations follow?
Especially the nations the americans sanction, so, in a way its the american gov that promotes crypto use.
Who in their right mind are going to follow The Ukraine or El Salvidor other than as a cautionary tale?
How do I know?
Institutional investors have begun buying, change happens in this world.
I have no idea what will happen, but Im not going to rule it out, simply follow the evidence.
Dan – that made me chuckle. Agreed! 🙂
“Who in their right mind are going to follow The Ukraine or El Salvador other than as a cautionary tale?”
where are those with technicals on filling gaps, pitchforks etc when we need them most for guidance.
take a look at 1 year price chart, says it all, the gold producer seniors, aem, abx, nem etc all hitting annual lows today after a continuous slide.
Sept. still a possibility. This needs to recover 1800 quick, catch its breath and move past 1830 for any hope pronto
SLV found itself at two pitchfork resistances yesterday so it does make sense that the drop originated from the level that it did.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=11&id=p68342358893&a=1027422980
Yes, I thought it would break out instead based on the 60 minute SLV:GLD chart but my wrong guess isn’t the fault of any pitchfork or support/resistance line.
on continuous contract/si it looks much better using pitchfork….
https://tos.mx/SYIyJGU
Thanks Larry. The metals often have very different charts than the ETFs that represent them so it’s always a good idea to look at both. Here’s a weekly look at silver which won’t update to include today’s action until later so I added a small line at today’s low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=p58744466512&a=500464214
if nugt looks to close below 8/20 low on this 4 hour chart i will eject….right now on this 4 hr. chart, price has tested that swing low and rejected it w volume…showing buyers on average bought the dip…this is what the chart says…..if price gets above VWAP grey line at 47.07 it says institutions are purchasing, the way i use it…other things also,like 1 min rsi divergence, fib targets, but that is a part of my decision path…..it is a weak markets day so no surge is expected…options expiration FRI and that tends positive and seasonals for gold positive but dollar is elevating on creeping up interest rates..Matthew if out there any chart would be helpful…This is a tough buy in my world….If that swing holds miners will either gap below or gap up tomorrow…price characteristics say gap up, at the moment…that can change rapidly….unpleasant…like flying IFR…
The $PBGDM discussed here by glen months ago is getting to that target of which I said would be extremely bullish for a significant low.. I believe I used 20 on the Indicator and we are now at 23… ladies and gentlemen forget the bears and there noise as of late, we are very close to a low and it can come anytime.
Glen
interesting…TDA does not have that Glen…..i saw it on stockcharts…thanx..it goes in favs
Larry thank you as well for all your hard work.
It to me is a very important long term low indicator that tells
Me everyone including my Neighbour is pessimistic About gold..
Bob m, doc have mentioned it in the pass! I believe bob m really like it. Yes Matthew as well as me and a few others I believe use stock charts.
believe me it is no problem Glen…just the reverse…I enjoy this site…alot of great inputs and not too large to become pointless chaos…The individual guest shows are in my opinion world class coverage…I could not do that sort of work….
UUP needs to close below high volume 9/8/21 at 24.94 bar in order to demonstrate failure of follow-through on light volume…It is almost there….glta…it does take some of that..lmao
https://tos.mx/3MrIO2n
A close below 1729 on gold futures would not be good. Nothing but air below there. I expect that to happen soon.
Or, it could be a double bottom area. We will see shortly.
On this gartley buy pattern support range is 1756 to 1703…glta
Weird…I am almost back to even today after being over $30,000 down. It will be an interesting remainder of the day.
I do not want to sell at the bottom…we may not be at the bottom but it sure looks close.
yes david, there’s probably a pony in there somewhere. Tomorrow should be up because today was down. LOL
Ordinarily I would agree as that has been my pattern up until recently when they have been about 95% down…today no exception. The change that is significant is that there has been a change to a concentrated attack. What that may signal is to watch the General Markets…
..(.agree about the alternating day)s… hasn’t been for a couple of weeks. Just down..
That is good that you are back to even today David, and I do notice that some of the miners are clawing their way back higher again, but my portfolio is still down about 4.8% on the day which stings a bit, but I traded 22 companies today so it’s fluctuated a lot as I did some portfolio rebalancing.
My strategy today was to shed some non-core positions and fortify some of my favorites with more concentrated position sizing. I’ve actually reduced down my number of companies in the portfolio by about 1/3 in the course of 2021, compared to where things ended 2020, so I’ve become less diversified and more focused as their year has developed as an observation and strategy.
As I mentioned somewhere in all this, that I did sell some of a couple because Labrador had decent drill results today with some good grades. Widths were nothing special. The other issue is their VP of exploration (I think) left the company which raised the question as to why. Since they have been looking for similar results to New Found Gold, maybe there has been a dispute as to where it is. I think Sprott, NFG and Novo own some Labrador, so there might be a lot of intervention in its activities. In any event, if the price on Labrador is still down by Monday when funds transfer, I may pick it up. If not I will look to Emerita or one of my silver stocks to add it back…unless this downturn continues of the General Markets weaken significantly. I will not be selling, but am looking 6 months out to watch and hold.
…OR the General Markets weaken…(not of)
Instead of Novo owning some of Labrador make that Crescat Capital. Novo into NFG and of course Crescat Capital has Quinten Hennigh. Only about 40% float for retail at this time.
Yes, Novo’s position and stake in New Found Gold was doubted by many bashers, but actually ended up being a wise investment that has gone up multi-fold.
My portfolio is down to 30 from the 70s at one time. A lot of that is due to Emerita. Holding a bigger percent of Emerita has involved more volatility, but the strange thing up until recently is that my account would be up or down depending on Emerita alone and the other 30 to 40 would be almost even, day after day. What I did was just look at Emerita on its own and leave it out of the calculation for daily performance. Almost a year of a small range…until recently. Been declining at a rate of 3 – 5% a day, steady. that makes me think we are close to something different.
David – Thanks for sharing how you are managing your portfolio and it’s composition and breadth. It’s interesting that we both culled the herd un our portfolios this year and got more concentrated in our position sizing. Along that same line of thought, if one gets a really concentrated anchor position, like what you’ve done in Emerita, then one’s fate is much more tethered to that position.
Doc,
Is this the low are you looking to buy PM positions?
Thank goodness for the uranium rally or my account would look ugly…… and it still looks like the 2nd inning only for uranium
Agreed Wolfster, although, I have sold 85% of my Uranium portfolio from last Friday to yesterday on Wednesday, to harvest the gains as the miners have run really hard for a year and half now. Even though I wanted to set those gains aside to repurchase them on a corrective move, they ended up getting plowed into Silver and Gold stocks today on the sector weakness. I’ve decided to pull some funds out of deep savings to move into my trading account to repurchase the U stocks when they correct at bit more. We saw some of them correct 3%-6% today, but I’d like to see another 10%+ correction from here before repurchasing them.
Wednesday Price Quality Wrap-Up : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
PMs remain flat. Now at crucial levels which must not falter.
PGM bleeding stopped (much negative saturation). Turn?
Uranium multistage rocket resumes. CCJ stays level.