Big Picture Precious Metals Markets – What truly are the fundamentals that will drive the market years ahead

September 22, 2021

Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joins us for a discussion on the precious metals markets and the key factors to watch for future price moves. We discuss the fundamentals that actually matter and those that are just noise. This includes interest rates, broad financial markets, inflation data, and a range of other markets to consider.

Click here to visit the CPM Group website.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:57 AM

    Knee jerk reactions in the gold space because of some out of the left field event those rallies are short lived. My point is, anyone that’s going to take advantage of a huge move in the gold space is going to have to forecast the lack of confidence ahead of time.

    Investors are waiting for someone to ring the bell when this lack of confidence comes to fruition because it’s in the news, you would need to go back to the drawing board because you’re going to miss everything. When it creeps into the news then you’re going to be whipsawed and most likely lose a lot of money because that’s when the crowd starts moving in and especially in gold. When it becomes fact in the news that’s when the Insiders are going to be selling. The above analysis and commentary is referring to a long-term investing approach not trading these markets in and out for scalps and swing trades etc.

    The above is applicable to the catching major moves in the gold space ahead of time. There are also other many variables and dynamics to consider. The commentary above is all very very briefly.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:09 AM

      One very significant sign is the depressed levels in the gold mining shares and sentiment is very pathetic everyone’s confused. Confidence is starting to erode and being lost.

      Bodes well for the future in a big move in the gold space. That’s all I’m looking for. The fortunes being made.

      Also it equates to nothing but buyers left in the market and sellers have been completely eliminated they’ve already sold. The crypto crowd and those that are confused regarding gold.

      IS ANYONE HERE TODAY ! If you’re not here that’s a really good sign for the gold space. Or just confused.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:31 AM

        A good example right now is the cannabis stocks the Insiders were in long before any legalization in the news and when the news came out regarding legalization that’s when all the suckers jumped in. The Insiders left with their money in hand. And everybody in between just got whipsawed to death and many that lost fortunes. The drop was just breathtaking a waterfall cascade of losses in a short period of time.

        So no, if it’s a loss of confidence that’s going to drive the gold space (definitely is) you need to recognize that long before you can’t be listening to analysts saying when this happens that happens because it’s too late. I mean get out of here !!!!

    Sep 22, 2021 22:03 AM
      Sep 22, 2021 22:51 AM

      Thanks for the chart………hope so, as I have some cash up there.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:09 AM

    This is probably the third time I’ve posted the following SILJ chart in the last few days but it deserves it. All that support that it retested mattered and we probably have an intermediate degree double bottom as a result.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:10 AM

      The big pullback of late has been part two of the August low. Big deal.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:12 AM

    That double pitchfork support zone for SLV:GLD also mattered…

    Sep 22, 2021 22:18 AM

    We do have strength coming in the gold space some of these stocks are doing quite nicely if that holds into the close or not, difficult to tell.

    My only interest is not a short-term rally however the big gold move and being in with maximum exposure.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:30 AM

      It is common for the action immediately following the Fed to be wrong but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:38 AM

        F the Fed. lol they’re all criminals. They should be prosecuted and sentenced. However, they get away with it because the whole systems flawed and it’s all lawlessness everywhere you go.

        I get your point though, I just had to throw that in there. lol

        Regardless, the rant is reasonable and they need to be exposed.

        Problem is, the sheeple will never say anything. They refuse to stand for righteousness.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:34 AM

    SLV:GLD reversed very near its 200 week MA and did so with a significant RSI bullish divergence (a great sign for the whole sector)…

    Sep 22, 2021 22:36 AM
      Sep 22, 2021 22:39 AM

      It has some support about .8% below the current price of 25.01…

      Sep 22, 2021 22:56 PM

      Matthew I do think dollar is topped out here on the weak retracement…It just finished an AB=CD up right at the TD9 resistance(green line)which is a TAS resistance top…..and why should it be strong?..lmao/sad

        Sep 22, 2021 22:06 PM

        Could this be a head and shoulder pattern that signals a top in dollar…Nice symmetry and all other measures are over-extended relative to the fundamental backdrop…glta

        Sep 22, 2021 22:08 PM

        Larry, thanks for sharing that.

          Sep 23, 2021 23:54 AM

          Dollar reversal occurring as the chart read foretold…But gold is not rallying yet…What gives….Cycles down into Octoberish are simply dominating?…Matthew what is your take?….πŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ”ŠπŸ“‘πŸ“ž

            Sep 23, 2021 23:21 AM

            oh, jobless claims increased about 20k which in theory shows deflating economics….pizzπŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ€‘πŸ’©

            Sep 23, 2021 23:40 AM

            /GC gold daily shows…..Tas support at 1749.2……Getting dicey…trust me that must hold…2 bars close below id curtains…but hopefully price tests and rejects that…volume is quite large so far today……flush out of weak gold participants is quite possible…and the good old friday pop…IMHO…any thoughts welcomed…glta…Matthew what do you think?

            Sep 23, 2021 23:57 AM

            why am i even attempting a miners play on gold?…because gold completed a gartley buy pattern at a .618 retracement of the previous set of swing points…gold had a technical key reversal day on 9/20 monday…Because price was extended down defined by the gartley buy and .618 fibs extension….that 9/20 bar went below and then above the previous bar and closed in the opposite direction to the previous down trend eg key reversal day…I understand cycle work says that the low is due oct/nov….but cycles work fail also, frequently actually….glta

            Sep 23, 2021 23:30 AM

            /GC 4 hour chart…This is IT…This decides the battle of bulls and bears….bar e down has the volume characteristic that matters that the market just tested…did buyer conviction hold?….proof will be if this price level is tested(done) and lower price rejected (occurring) .we will know soon enough…glta


            Sep 23, 2021 23:59 AM

            11ish AM EST…The daily chart /GC has chit for technicals…I mean chit…But nice RSI(14) developing on the 10 minute and less time frames…..TAS support by their algo’s where the buys are lurking, implying support, is holding so far…stay w positive expectancy a while more…

    Sep 22, 2021 22:50 AM
    Sep 22, 2021 22:50 AM

    not much time left for a positve seasonal sept.
    listening to powell garble, no gold insurance needed, everything under control. And if control lost we’ll just buy whatever market needs support. Can’t lose scenario.
    oh my, where’s the pitchfork on gold when you need it.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:38 PM

      I see KER is going the way of the slimy censors at Yahoo.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:03 PM

        How so? What was censored?

        I’ve been away most of the last 2 days but don’t see any post in moderation that hasn’t been released.

          Sep 22, 2021 22:49 PM

          The comment appeared for awhile and was never in moderation. I asked “jonsyl” if he enjoyed being a weakling since he doesn’t miss a chance to complain and malign that which he doesn’t understand; in this case, pitchforks.
          My comparing KER to Yahoo stems from the fact that his repeated instigating sarcasm is fine while my rather benign question apparently is not. Yahoo pulls the same thing, allowing some extreme lenience while silencing others.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:55 PM

            Oh. I didn’t see any of that so don’t know what happened there.

            Bottom line, if posts are just people attacking one another and not adding value, then some of those may get pulled. Personally, I get a great deal of value from your posts Matthew, especially the charts you share. Cheers!

            Sep 22, 2021 22:38 PM

            The glaring bottom line from my perspective is the fact that my comment was deleted by someone with no common sense. Oh well…

            Sep 22, 2021 22:54 PM

            Well, we’ll have to disagree there as I feel Cory has a great deal of common sense, and doesn’t want the blog littered with name calling and insults. Makes sense to me.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:07 PM

            Finding out that it was Cory is disappointing. You also have no common sense if you think my simple question was more offensive than jonsyl’s sarcasm that came first.
            Is it really lost on you two that jonsyl’s INTENTION was to offend? He’s done the same thing over and over again with zero deletions. I would have no problem if his completely valueless comment had been deleted along with mine.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:23 PM

            Matthew, there is no need to now start insulting me, as I didn’t do anything to you, and just got done paying you a compliment and said I appreciated your posts.

            Look it’s common sense that someone responding to another poster here with a personal attack and escalating it to using name calling (like degrading someone as a “weakling” if that was the word you used), is quite a bit different than someone insinuating sarcasm and not even referencing you directly in a post that mostly dwelt with gold’s seasonality, the Powell’s comments , and being facetious about the control the Fed thinks they have on the markets.

            There isn’t any reason to remove Jonsyl’s comment. I can’t speak to your comment as it is no longer up, but there are other posts that have been removed in the past if they are just insults and name calling and some folks have even crossed over into libel and slander against guests we’ve brought on the show. Jonsyl didn’t insult any user here or call anyone a name. That is common sense, and why his comment didn’t get removed, where your comment apparently did, likely based on insults and name calling. It’s a simple concept.

            I had already previously stated I didn’t remove your comment before you responded back that your comment “was deleted by someone with no common sense.” If it wasn’t me then that only leaves one other person, Cory. When you moved on to insulting him, then I disagreed with your statement and stuck up for Cory’s common sense. Now you’ve shifted your ire to me, after I thought enough of you to at least respond back and explain the situation to you and had just got done paying you a compliment. I cared enough to respond back and wanted to better understand your initial comment of calling the KER “slimy”, which is again, another insult, but now I’m sorry I even tried to engage with you at all. Good grief!

            Sep 22, 2021 22:40 PM

            I stand by my so-called insult. That’s some nutty logic you’re employing to defend jonsyl’s crystal clear and repeated attempt to insult me. It is what it is and anyone with common sense knows that.
            For the record, I am not and would not ask for his comments to be removed. The response to my comment while ignoring his is just ridiculous.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:44 PM

            Btw, jonsyl, here’s the pitchfork on gold when you need it:

            The fork provided perfect support on Monday so move below Monday’s low would not be bullish. Does that make sense to you?

            Sep 22, 2021 22:47 PM

            OK. Well sorry you feel that way, and can’t see the distinction between personal attacks and direct name calling and someone musing about technical analysis with “oh my, where’s the pitchfork on gold when you need it.”

            There is no personal attack there, no name calling, and no reason to remove it. A post with personal attacks and name calling can and do get removed from the blog as they only make things worse, and they are like tromping onto someone’s floor with dirty shoes on and tracking mud everywhere. Those kinds of posts serve nobody.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:41 PM

            You’re either purposely missing the context, the multiple sarcastic comments that preceded the last one OR you don’t know sarcasm when you see it. I happen to know someone like that and it is not rare from what I’ve been told. This person has borderline personality disorder and can’t spot sarcasm to save her life. Perhaps that’s you, too, but I doubt it. If you were in my shoes, you’d know exactly what jonsyl was doing and would haul off as you’ve done so many times in the past (always righteously, of course – in your mind).

            By the way, you might want to rethink how you use compliments. It doesn’t look good at all when you pay someone one and then hold it over their head as if a favor is owed. I realize it is human (sheeple) nature to glad-hand and place “getting along” above all else but that tendency is corruptive and destructive and doesn’t work on me. Friends and family can’t buy my silence or cooperation that way either.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:57 PM

            Faget about jonsyl keep doing your thing, Matthew.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:06 PM

            I will now, Terry. I sure did not expect my legitimate simple question to cause a problem.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:53 PM

            Matthew, in you’re veiled attempt to diss on me, it is you that missed the point. Being somewhat sarcastic like Jonsyl was about the chart forks, is just that, just like the sarcastic comments about the Fed and Powell’s comments were likewise sarcastic. This site is full if sacarstic posts and those are not the same thing as flat out personal attacks or name calling, which is a step too far. If Cory felt it was too far, then he pulled the post and it is his site, and he has common sense just like I do.

            Honestly, we don’t really have interest in moderating most of the comments or squabbles between posters (which are endless and always have been, and likely always will be). Once it gets to the level of personal attacks and name calling, it no longer serves the community. The people that post on the blog are not the only ones reading the blog. Most of these segments have hundreds or sometimes thousands of views, including from the contributors and companies we interview.

            If it gets to just insulting, personal attacks, and name calling that isn’t helping out everyone, and is sometimes better if those posts get removed from the site. Again, we don’t want to really need to moderate the comments, or delete anything, and rarely do.

            We are busy on 8-10 calls/zooms per day, recording segments for the site, setting up new ones, responding to emails, etc. and most of the time just let the comments slide. If he removed the post, then he felt it was counter-productive to the site.

            Jonsyl being sarcastic on forks, even if directed at you, is just a technical indicator, like Bollinger bands or moving averages, so does it really matter enough to insult him over it?

            As for the compliments, they were genuine, as is every comment or compliment I give anyone. I’ve complimented your charts many other times. Most would see the congruence to those statements, and not immediately try and assign an ulterior motive to them.

            My point was there was no need to ugly with me over something I didn’t do, and I took the time to respond because I think enough of you to do so. If I didn’t care at all I wouldn’t have responded, nor complimented your contributions here.

            I just find it odd how hard you work to find motives that aren’t there, how you need to constantly try and belittle others, like you just did to both Cory and I in this thread, and thought it was an odd way to respond back when I was trying to be real with you and explain what likely happened and that I valued your thoughts. That’s it man. Good night.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:11 PM

            I asked him if he enjoyed being a weakling, that’s it. The fact that adults now need to protect other adults from such a well-grounded question is sad. My assessment was accurate and no more offensive than he intended to be with his repeated remarks. It’s simple stuff. Or so I thought.

            Sep 23, 2021 23:03 AM

            EX….no one should mess with a neurosurgeon…They are the tiny sub-group that actually work miracles win the Rockefeller Disease cartel….Not much of anything gets by a neurosurgeon IMHO….a great neuro guy saved me from dying of a spinal cord compression injury years back….tough case 4 hr. Sx…….58% C-5/6 compression…incompatible w life….full recovery for me…..πŸ”ŠπŸ’₯πŸ”ŠπŸŽ‰πŸ”ŠπŸ”†πŸ”ŠπŸ˜Ž

            Sep 23, 2021 23:50 AM

            Good point Larry. I respect people in any field or discipline, where they have spent time learning their craft and helping others.

            Congratulations on the full recovery, and yes it sounds like that neurosurgeon really was a life saver.


    Sep 22, 2021 22:51 AM

    Here’s what’s funny, Gary Savage wants an easy job. Pay your money and subscribe and just buy physical bullion silver and keep stacking. That’s it !!!!!!!!!!

    When it crosses $50 that’s the catapult to $250.

    I guess that’s a tough job to remember all that and I probably would need to subscribe.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:12 PM

      amazing how many fools actually use savage as their rubber crutch. There are many others out there with the magic sauce as well, and speak with great know how and authority.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:26 PM

        I’m not so sure about your rubber crutch theory however why would anybody pay for a subscription as I stated in my comments above. Ding Ding Ding it’s really something to take notice on. Critical isn’t being unreasonable or malicious.

        There are those too, they can’t get out of their own way. They’re ingrates. lol

          Sep 22, 2021 22:06 PM

          By the way, just for the record I think Gary Savage is a great guy. I just can’t see how anyone that’s been a season trader in the gold space for such a long time would now consider declaring that the gold mining equities are no longer lucrative at a time when as far as my analysis goes is ready for a monster rally next year though, not now.

          Gary should definitely consider the end of this year if everything lines up for a setup with gold shares remaining so depressed because that pressure is going to be let off to the upside and a spectacular rally. Disclaimer, this is all very briefly and there’s other variables and dynamics at play here.

            Sep 22, 2021 22:30 PM

            Not only that, I enjoy contrary indicators I don’t care if they’re in my own family. In the past, not recently many years but families worked out great as contrary indicators. Same with friends and acquaintances. Taking a tally of all these helps me make really important investment decisions. Of course, the last few years with a bubble assets and all the toxic policies of the government these contrary indicators aren’t so reliable anymore but that’s because everything is turned upside down. We don’t have free markets and there’s no price discovery everything supported by government intervention they started out with a stock market with ESF with Reagan the plunge protection team after the 1987 stock market crash.
            Now they’re supporting everything all toxic assets everything in the economy is completely out of control and it’s going to turn out to be a apocalyptic event when this thing ends.



      Sep 22, 2021 22:13 PM

      That’s an interesting point Holy Grail. It wouldn’t make much sense to subscribe to a service if the view is wait until Silver goes to $50 and then it will go to $250. That isn’t much to go off.

      However, I believe G.S. covers a number of other general market sectors (like semiconductors as an example) besides just the PMs, so he may be putting his focus more on those other areas.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:54 PM

      Ditto………100% HG…….. on $50 silver…… until the cup is filled….. same old story…
      Silver’s long term cup and handle, people should pay attention… JMO…

        Sep 22, 2021 22:06 PM

        Thanks and 🀞

    Sep 22, 2021 22:51 AM
    Sep 22, 2021 22:05 PM

    They faded the rally in the gold equities they were doing fairly well up nicely that’s all gone now. This is definitely walking a tightrope until the end of the year most likely. Failed rallies.

    Suits me just fine I’m not in for the short term rallies. I don’t give a rip in fact a nice decline from here into year end would be great. At least you get this BS over with. Could not hurt, could help.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:11 PM

    At this precise time they reversed any gains in gold and now the stock market up strongly, decent size move.

    That’s not a loss of confidence that’s why it all boils down to that and the stock market needs to keep moving down if it’s a stair step no problem and it needs to stay down for a long time.

    They’re going to do everything they can to keep the confidence and hammer gold and keep the stock market up here where it is even if it’s trading sideways. And keep gold lackluster and under control. They don’t have to hammer it.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:20 PM

    Rug pulled out from under gold, was up 13 bucks, now it’s in the red.
    Jeff saying, if I heard right, that it’s going to trade sideways for another year.
    That means gold = dead money.
    That means mining stocks are worse than dead money, they will decline as the cost of everything continues to go up while the price of the thing they are mining is staying flat.
    No money to be made in the PM sector unless you can pick up the bargains on a few gems in this space that will be available for a very short time in the next month or two.
    You’re better off buying dividend stocks at this point.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:32 PM

      I agree Joe although I think next year is going to be very spectacular for the gold space. This next few months is not going to be easy because the Ponzi scheme isn’t going to just fade away into the dark of the night they’re going to use every tool they can to keep this thing going and we’re in tax loss selling season so it’s not going well and it’s probably not going to go well into the end of the year but next year it’s going to turn around big. All depends on how things set up. I’m very pleased and exuberant Ha Ha for a monster rally in the gold space next year because I love all this negativity this is a perfect setup if it all goes the way I’m thinking.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:39 PM

        China con lie and cheat for only so long, eventually they’ll have to let some companies, BIG COMPANIES, have their shenanigans exposed and fail.
        Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg.

        The contagion will spread. It’s a big s**t sandwich, and everyone everywhere is gonna have to take a bite.
        How big of a bite… that’s up to you.

          Sep 22, 2021 22:47 PM

          Again, I agree with you Joe however I love all this negativity in the gold space. There’s nothing not to like. This isn’t a immediate short-term analysis because things don’t look good for the gold space for the next several several weeks into year end and next year there’s going to be a monster rally it’s almost guaranteed 100%. As long as all this negativity keeps up and these values stay depressed I’m all in at the end of the year with everything maximum leverage 300% long anything that can be marginal. But everyone else does I don’t give a rip. The more critical everyone is, the better. I would like to have no company at all. If everyone stop posting because they lost interest that would be even better and I was the only one left on this blog.

          A dream come true everyone gone not a gold bull left. Only buyers left I’d become a trillionaire . lol

            Sep 22, 2021 22:47 PM

            I agree with you. I am not a trader like many that post here but like to read your comments. I just trade some in my IRA for my retirement. Right now I like stocks like Kinross KGC. They are beat down and pay a div. and buying back shares. I do not mind if it takes time for them to come back.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:10 PM

    I’m expecting a spectacular year in the gold space next year. Things are fairly cheap right now they might get cheaper by the end of the year however you need to be careful in this market if you get a lot of profits especially near when spring ends that’s when I believe is going to be a good profit taking opportunity next year. That’s after a monster rally though. There’s going to be a lot of 10 baggers. Prerequisite, is the setup and hopefully the shares will be much more depressed by the end of the year setting the platform or launchPad until next month for the first half of the year for a monster rally. Need a lot more poor sediment towards the end of the year everyone should pretty much hate gold. That will set the stage and will also have seasonals kicking in. πŸ€žπŸš€

    Sep 22, 2021 22:12 PM

    Typo: LaunchPad for next year. Not next month. 🀑

      Sep 22, 2021 22:44 PM

      Thanks Mike. I don’t follow them very much or listen to them it’s just all jawboning. J POW it’s the same old same old. We might taper we might do this and they’re going to leave interest rates alone if they know what’s good for em. Has really no effect on my analysis at all. We need a loss of confidence and depressed mining shares going into year end and sentiment extremely poor. The launching pad will be in place for the latter part of this year the first few weeks of next year. There’s other variables and dynamics however it’s pretty much setting up.

        Sep 22, 2021 22:32 PM

        It just stuns me – minutes after Power spoke the “pundits” ware rating it as hawkish to mildly hawkish. WTF???? This is a giant exercise of kicking a meaningless can down the hall – all the while we continue to pour $’s into the economy by purchasing assets. I’m betting that they will do 2 tapers and have to stop because the market takes a dump. The can’t raise rates, they can’t taper too much – the Fed is trapped but the pundits think everything is wonderful. What will it take for the market to see that Fed has no creds at all?

          Sep 22, 2021 22:38 PM

          ONE BIG CON GAME>……. nothing has changed since 9/11

            Sep 22, 2021 22:39 PM

            and even before that….

          Sep 22, 2021 22:45 PM

          I don’t think anyone cares Mike because everyone’s lining their pockets with bubble assets. Excellent observations Mike. I might have to start calling this place.


          Anyway, I certainly can’t change anything. I’ve done my share of speaking out with a lot of important issues. It all falls on deaf ears though. They’re creating a apocalyptic nightmarish situation for all of us. All the members of the Federal reserve are a real piece of work they should all be prosecuted and sentenced. SEC and many branches of the government are completely useless. America is now a lawless regime. Toxicity everywhere.

    Sep 22, 2021 22:14 PM

    I think the site is great and don’t know anywhere else I can go to get this much individual coverage of companies, plus get the opinions of a variety of letter writers and analysts. Sometime I think we chase too many personal agendas (like my favorite: market intervention) and not enough time sharing investment ideas. Cory and Ex are talking to these people daily and digging into their companies or theories, both pre-record and on air and then we BS about β€œmuch of nothing” like I am now. These are bad times right now and I don’t want to deplete my portfolio again, nor do I want go be caught out of the market when things go up because most of the time the run is short lived. Just something to think about.

      Sep 22, 2021 22:54 PM

      Thanks for the kind words David. We do try to bring on engaging guests, companies, and ask questions that help draw out some interesting topics. As for the comments on the blog, we appreciate all the participation and insights people share to help the community of investors here be better informed.

      Ever Upward!