Just when will a significant bounce come for Precious Metals? – A technical and fundamental outlook
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins me to share his outlook on the gold chart as well as to discuss the fundamental factors that actually matter. The charts are still pointing to lower prices for gold as the string of lower highs has continued. When it comes to fundamentals there are a never ending list that can be noted but only a few truly matter for prices.
Gold has been making as series of “higher lows” on a gradual bullish trend higher for the last 5 1/2 years now, regardless of the recent corrective leg down.
Gold has not been putting in significant “lower lows” that have broken that rising trend of “higher lows,” so unless that changes then this recent correction is all happening in the context of a larger bull market trend.
The recent corrective leg down over the last year, with the “lower highs” you mentioned is coming after Gold made a massive move higher taking out the prior 2011 peak of $1921 (bullish) and then making a new all-time high last August (bullish). It is normal after such a huge move higher from summer of 2019 into the summer of 2020 and is digesting that move.
Here is a chart of Gold since it bottomed in December of 2015 at $1045.40, and the gradual bullish uptrend in higher lows is pretty easy to see.
If the low for 2021 at $1673.30, which was now about 6 months ago in March, was taken out, and if that move also also took out the trough from 2020 at $1671.70, then one could make the case that the move down from $2089 last August is actually in a new cyclical bear market.
That bear market thesis would be further confirmed if Gold dove back down and took out the Pandemic crash low at $1450.90 and the prior trough to that at $1446.20 from November of 2019.
That $1446-$1451 zone of support is the real line in the sand to be wary of to confirm the bull market ended last Summer; however, that big of a price correction is quite unlikely in this kind of a macro economic backdrop.
Now, if you take that handle in consideration at the lowest point around 1440. Splitting the difference between that and what Uncle Harry is forecasting leaving us with a low of around 1000.
Ya we’ll, when this year finally has comes to a conclusion I believe my setup is going to kick in almost guaranteeing a spectacular rally next year in the gold space.
Of course though, I love all this bearishness. The more, the merrier and the holidays are coming up soon.
If you mean the large cup & handle pattern using the $1921 peak from 2011 and the $2089 peak from 2089, then as Jordan & Doc have mentioned a few times, it may still take a while longer for that leg down (which forms the handle) to complete.
However, as mentioned above, any break in Gold below that “pandemic crash” at $1450.90 and the prior $1446.20 trough from November of 2019 would confirm the bull market ended in Aug of 2020. Anything lower than that, and especially a move down to $1000 (which would be lower than the 2015 Major low of $1045.70) would be bear market action for sure.
It would cause more technical chart damage if Gold broke through the low for 2021 at $1673.30, (which was now about 6 months ago in March), and if that move also also took out the trough from 2020 at $1671.70, as previously mentioned.
Gold very well could get down in the low $1600s or high $1500s, and then build a base and rally from there, without making a low below the pandemic crash at $1450. Most analysts would concede that this would have been a cyclical bear market then, instead of just a corrective leg in an ongoing bull market.
I guess some could maintain that if the new low level came in above the major pandemic crash level, and November 2019 trough right below that, that it could still be considered the next “higher low” in a larger bull market, but that is more of a stretch after making such a big move higher and having put in a clear and obvious support level to all between $1672-$1673.
I was just joking around the first part of my message. That’s Harry Dent Uncle Harry he has a very low price point in gold.
I don’t follow those price targets or anything because they’re all meant to be broken and my main concern right now is sediment, timing for the low end of this year and very very depressed mining shares. That’s the launching pad for the big rally next year that’s going to blow everyone’s socks off.
Understood Holy Grail. Yeah, sentiment lows often mark bottoms, and while the gold
and silver prices have essentially just channeled sideways in a trading range, the mining stocks have outperformed to the downside. That pulldown in most miners has pulled down the sentiment to pretty low levels, with many throwing in the towel over the last few months, and reminds me a lot of what it was like in late 2015 in the sector.
If pricing did break through support levels making new lower lows, then I guess sentiment can always get worse, but it’s already been pretty bad for a while now. Even companies with good news are being sold off when they release it, so that’s pretty fugly.
This hasn’t been a “scare you out” corrective move, but it has definitely been a ‘wear you out” correction. Many investors are fatigued and just plain worn out, but this is on the heels of 2 great years back to back in 2019 and 2020, so not that unusual to see it digest those gains in that sense.
We’ll see how it goes, but I agree with you that buying any future weakness into later in the year and early next year, will likely be rewarded handsomely in the fullness of time as the rest of the bull market cycle unfolds.
Thanks Ex, no scare me out here because it doesn’t matter how low the price goes I got a war chest big bankroll ready to go to buy the bargains that’s my strategy.
I appreciate your input and I’m just looking for a setup because my whole objective here is to make fortunes I’m not in this to scalp trades or some small profits and trading strategies in and out that’s not going to make much money not compared to the fortunes that are on the table. Just sayin !!! Everyone’s completely different I see on here but that’s their choice I guess. I’m not going to miss out on the fortunes. I mean, why. I’m not in this to make a little bit of money here and there on some trades no way no shape or form. Again, just sayin.
I hear ya Holy Grail, and wish you great prosperity in getting a well placed longer-term trade in place for the big move you see on the horizon. Cheers!
Thanks Ex for the kind thoughts and everything much appreciated. Great prosperity to you too. Everyone has different goals and everything. Which is absolutely fine and I’m just sharing my analysis and what I’m focused on right now. Fairly positive and convinced the moon shots next year. Most likely straight out of the gate too. Everyone must do what they believe in and there was a lot of Bitcoin gurus many years ago and they were right on. That’s how fortunes are made you have to do what you believe in. Conventional wisdom never made anyone any money it’s having that vision and then you capture it if it’s realistic and you capitalize on it.
It doesn’t feel like a bull market. In case of the miners, it is even worse. Take a look at how gdx has performed in the last 5 years vs qqq đ The miners are supposed to provide leverage and all is leverage to the downside.
Stocks have to be in a bear market for gold to perform well in my opinion.
Like any comparison between sectors, it depends on where one measures from and over what period of time, as nothing trends in a straight line. In general the PMs and the related miners have not been a “buy and hold” market, and this has been mentioned repeatedly for years on here. Resource investors were much better served trading the cycles, in buying the dips and selling the rips.
With the mining stocks, there were periods of time like the first 8 months of 2016, the first quarter of 2017, the first quarter of 2018, from Oct of 2018 – Feb of 2019, from late May 2019 – Nov 2019, and from March 2020 – Aug 2020 the miners in GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and especially SILJ outperformed the general stock indexes.
There were a number of periods of time in this bull market to blow away the returns of the stock markets but they needed to be traded to capture the gains. Buy and hold investors were not treated to the same kinds of returns. For example, if one bought in January of 2016, at the major bottom of the mining stocks and held to present day, their returns would be sub-par in comparison to the gains of investors that actively traded the markets.
People that have applied the Jessie Livermore “buy right and sit tight” old turkey strategy to resource stocks in commodities, did so in error, and have not been well served. This is because commodities are cyclical, and not the blue chip general markets that Livermore was invested in. His methods worked fine the last 5 years or 10 years in the general stock markets, and in people’s retirement accounts locked up in mutual funds in the general markets, the old turkey approach was the correct one, but it was not the right approach in mining stocks.
Whether one looks at Oil, Copper, Palladium, Nickel, Lithium, Uranium, or Gold and Silver…. they all had periods of time where they crushed the returns of the general markets, but they needed to be traded and those runs lasted only several months to maybe a little more than year in most instances.
In that regard they all would likely fail on a 5 year or 10 year return comparison to the general markets, but again that is the wrong way to approach these comparisons. It would be more ideal to compare lows to highs in given years and show the ranges available to investors to capitalize on out-sized gains. There were some years that were a red year in most commodities, but other years where where in a 3-10 month period the returns were 5x-10x. So there’s a different way of looking at things for consideration.
Ex, it is cyclical behavior which Price Quality is meant to reveal. Every significant trend has a beginning, whether shorter term or secular.
Great point BDC, and much appreciated. In the commodities and resource stocks, those trends are often shorter term cycles, yet they happen within the context of larger secular trends that play out over many years or even decades.
It just seemed relevant to point out it isn’t as simple as just doing a 5 year or 10 year look back at the miners versus the general markets and painting with a broad brush as the prior comment eluded to.
Instead, there were many mini-cycles and fierce uptrends over that period to be exploited that provided vast out-performance of the resource stocks over the general markets. In contrast, buying and holding like a bump on the log was not as lucrative of an approach to have taken.
Ex,
I understand your point that these are cyclical stocks but this bull from 2016 is watching paint dry. Look at the performance of HUI from 2000-2011. There were periods of long consolidation but they performed like any good bull market. This bull run is watching paint dry. As I write this, GDX is trading around 29.97. Are the miners implying gold has much further room to fall?
I hear ya Pyrite. It is a boring PM market for sure, and not the same kind of bull market as the steady gains from 2001 – 2011.
As for the recent break below $30 on GDX, and below $40 on GDXJ, that is concerning for the mining stocks. Most people that hold junior miners, that are not featured in those ETFs of mid-tiers and majors, have seen corrections of 30%-60% in many names, and they’ve fared even worse. All of this weakness in the miners may very well foretell lower prices to come in the metals. While not always the case, miners will lead the metals, and if that is the case right now then they are leading the way down.
Because newsletter writers can NEVER say it’s in a bear market. To do so would essentially be saying “don’t subscribe to my newsletter, I don’t wan to make money off of you”.
Jordan always has exceptional analysis. Very professional fine-tuned analysis and very realistic. In my opinion, Jordan really knows his business. I only listen to a couple of minutes however he’s shooting bull’s eyes basically across the board. It’s shaping up to be end of year in decline in gold mining shares. I couldn’t be more pleased. It’s going to be a nice setup for next year.
Breakout confirmed if it holds through the week.
Wednesday Price Quality : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
Possible PM head-fake pop in “Detailed”.
Dollar strength a problem.
A Gartley make or break at 93.73 may test out soon.
NASDAQ is going to get to 20K before we see the bubble burst, so if gold and miners won’t be ready for next run to new highs why chase them, ride stocks higher and don’t fight fed.
Gold made its run to new highs but ended back in August and didn’t hear too many analyst saying take profits, just $3k gold and look what happened, most miners gave back most gains and stock market continue to make money, đ°
Maybe, however I’ll take my chances any day on depressed unwanted assets. All depends on the setup. Definitely not there yet almost
I’m not a momo trader/investor so anything goes wrong it’s a long ways down from here.
What’s really funny, when Trump was President he stated we’re not socialist.
Is that true. lol
IS ANYONE HERE TODAY !
Gold failed to this âŠgold failed to do thatâŠminers are weakâŠstocks moving averagesâŠ
Chicken or eggâŠif you follow the 15 minute charts in the paper markets, there is constant intervention by commercials dumping paper gold exceeding position limits. Intervention is on a roll is driving priceâŠfundamentals are strong gold but does not matter. The Fed and political leadership have driven debt to unmanageable levels and all else is to hide the weakness in the fiat currency. They will continue to transfer wealth and continue to attempt to cover it up.
Krell Monetary Method
K.M.M. is synonymous with M.M.T. Haha! Good one BDC.
Thanks! We may avoid an Altair IV fate this time though.
Goldupdate!
To all my followers, chances are a man named holy will respond within 7.6 seconds I reckon and Iâm ok with that but remember he was not around during the calls me and doc made way back in regards to heading lower! Thatâs fact unless he was a different alias đ
Moving forward⊠Myself and doc since the August highs mentioned multiple times we would head lower, we were not the most popular vite I would say at the time as many kept insisting we would go higher and that needs to come to the forefront. Many Posters of which I wonât name not to embarrass kept going hard at me since I kept staying the âThe double Topâ or if some of you may not remember âMâ pattern and Jerry is my witness he is a man of god and knows exactly I stated that. I got big heat for it.
Folks what you now hear from Doc is exactly what I said, m pattern it was repeated many times to ex that we have an m pattern and Cory invited me in and i said no thank you. Leave it to holy! Sorry some call m pattern double top! This move down folks is clone to 2008 what I told doc Iâm private email and it doesnât change.. holy can come on and tell you many things now, but was he here between august high and few months after? No!
Listen to the shot callers the ones who have said it how it is..
Glen is 4% left cash not buying anythingâŠ
Iâm already loaded.. my 4% remaining will be used for the end of the world.
I think we put in a bottom in October and my main indicator $bpgam bit 20 today đ„łfolks there is one more move down buy buy buy! October is the bottom.. Not December and I will bet anyone friendly on here thatâs how confident iam.
Is there anyone else out there that comes on as a guest or post or blogs that is willing to challenge glen that the bottom Iâm the miners comes in either this month or October 100%? The bet is only for yes or no! I donât want if this happens that happens. Blah blah blah yes or no? Anyone
Holy? Lol
Glenn, give the trade time and we’ll all see who’s going to be right or wrong. You apparently don’t understand my trading techniques at all but that’s okay because I’m not suffering any losses I’m still in a good size profit on the core gold positions I have now.
I’m only interested in adding to positions once again and I’m not doing it right now because I don’t believe this is a fire sale bargain time.
By the way, I’m not making any market calls for a bottom here or anything else because it’s still the jury’s out until that happens. This is not year end yet.
Has no effect on me whatsoever anyway if this is the bottom or not. This is not the Pepsi challenge and some kind of competition that you want this made out to be not at least in retrospect to myself. Once again, I’m only adding to positions on fire sale bargains. This is not a competition to call the market because quite frankly there’s a possibility of more selling into the end of the year and if someone doesn’t recognize that then you’ll have to deal with that. Maybe not however I don’t have to deal with it at all. Otherwise, it’s very unreasonable to think anything else.
Hi Glenfidish. Thanks for sharing your perspectives on the markets.
As for the BPGDM indicator, as mentioned the other day, it can be instructive for severely oversold or overbought conditions. For example, I posted a half dozen times in July of 2020 about the BPGDM index having an extremely overbought buried reading of 100 for a few weeks. I had mentioned then that’s as overbought as that indicator got, and that miners were getting very close to a top. I had also mentioned this is why I’d be pulling some profits in miners over the next few weeks in late July to early August.
As we know, the miners did top out in mid August, and while I was just a little early trimming back some in late July to early August, monitoring the BPGDM indicator helped me sell partial positions fairly close to the top in many mining stocks. In retrospect it would have been better to sell the complete positions at that time, but I at least limited some losses and was able to buy back at lower prices in many stocks utilizing that BPGDM index as a tool. Having said that, it isn’t always precise for timing, as things can stay overbought or oversold longer than people think, but it synchs up very nicely with most major and intermediate tops and bottoms in the miners, and is another good tool to have in one’s quiver. I had used it in prior corrective periods to scout out potential turns, and like you mentioned a reading below 20 is getting into that oversold area for consideration.
As for the M-shaped double tops, they are the converse of W-shaped double bottoms and are a good pattern to watch out for. There are lots of M and W shapes in the whipsawing markets, so it is when two price levels align at key overbought or oversold areas that make them useful.
For exampl, that W-shaped double bottom on the daily chart in March at $1673 and $1677 seemed like a good area of support, and it definitely held so far for the six months proceeding that pattern, just like many double-bottom patterns do. People should remember that there was actually a double-bottom in late 2015 that marked that Dec major low on the daily chart, and it’s held for almost 6 years now.
Recently, after that flash crash in early August, other analysts have made the case for a larger W-shaped double bottom, if one uses the March $1673.30 and the August $1675.90 recently for the two points. That could also be valid and time will tell…
So far, the low for the year in gold was now 6 months ago at $1673 frm that W-shaped double-bottom, and there wasn’t a move to a new lower low since then. We’ll see how it goes from here, but so far so good.
Cheers!
Hello Glen………… and …yes you did call, …that metals would head lower…
and Doc, was cautious also…
Hey Glen……… what are your thoughts on Gary S…. jumping off the mining stocks…
And Happy Birthday….
Hey Glen……….. I am going to respond, to your post below. … I am posting here, because I do not want to take away from your beautiful critique of all the fellows bloggers….
No disrespect meant to anyone…. of course…..
But, Glen….. that was ONE HELL OF A POST….. thanks for mentioning me , and I am sure Irish will enjoy it . And thanks for being REAL….
Always hoping for the best for you….. again thanks….
Your Pal, with much respect….
Anytime whanker.
By the way, the bears have invaded this blog and google. Seems like precious miners are absolutely shites! Lol
There are a lot of PM bashers and bears out on the KER blogs lately, and also on most of the other chat forums as you noted, but that always happens during corrective moves as they feel emboldened.
There sure were not as many bears around bashing the sector when the PMs were blasting to new highs and continuing to take out overhead resistance levels in 2019 and 2020. The bear poster ratio is actually a pretty good contrarian indicator. Haha!
The length of the essays having little useful content would be another contrarian indicator.
Possibly, although most bashers don’t write essays, preferring instead to just throw out unsubstantiated jabs, but offering little data, evidence in their thesis, or contribution.
It’s easy to bash a sector, stock, or individual, in an emotional way and throw stones just to be ugly; but much more difficult to provide actual value to the community. Being bearish is just as fine as being bullish, as markets move in both directions, but it is far more common for bullish comments to have more substance and rationale, where many bearish comments are just meant to insult or troll a sector/company/individual with little to no meat on the bones.
In contrast, most of the longer essays from contributors here, or those that get reposted from other articles and editorials, contain useful content for investors (hence why they are longer); but that of course is dependent on the readers to discern. There are some exceptions with regards to the longer posts, when people get into quarrels with one another, and that may be what you were eluding to.
Glen. As Bonzo has the KER charter for third person self reference might i suggest you insert the definite article and become the powerful brand your bold and accurate market calls (in the face of unwarranted scorn–we know from whom only too well) so strongly merit.
I christen you sir ‘The Glen’.
I’ve appreciated Glennie’s calls on the market direction and I continue to say that he’s been quite good at them for the past while. I think his points have genuinely been intended to inform and share insight with the Ker family.
While many had continued to be enthusiastic, Glen maintained another perspective. Not being a frequent trader, I find his viewpoint beneficial given he’s angling at a longer term timeline.
I’ve got time for him when he’s sharing his insight… as I do for others on this site.
Further to what blazesb is proposing, I might suggest: “The Glen-meister”!
GLD was hit hard by the bears at an obvious resistance and then fell enough to fill yesterday’s gap and nearly reach Monday’s close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77834519907&a=1030722880
GDXJ is sitting on a lot of support. If it gets hit tomorrow morning, I doubt the bears will make the damage stick.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p48306612440&a=1011939498
Ok Iâm going to answer each one of you one by one! First Jerry đ Jerry you are the rock that holds all of us accountable and Iâm sorry that jack ass holy which I can read through like glass is a major pain in the ass! May I say thank you to you, Matthew and ex for it engaging into his blah blah blah which by the way you guys handle him much. Enter then me :).. sorry holy me no like you đł
Glen, comprendo mucho Bueno !!! That’s because you can’t bully me into believing that your smear campaigns are justified and there’s no apology whatsoever.
I’m going to take the higher road Glen. I don’t have any bad feelings for you whatsoever and what a man sows, he reaps. You want to sow hate. That’s going to be on you amigo.
Glen, I really find it hilarious that you can call me names and tell me I’m a pain in the ars this is the latest Ha Ha completely erroneous BS. Never mind your false accusations and I proved without a shadow of a doubt your very deceptive and malicious trying to smear Michael Oliver and myself. Now the lastest, without any explanation whatsoever. I have nothing against you although you’re very malicious. There’s absolutely no explanation or reasons for your hostile behavior towards me calling me names etc. Very vile and malicious and proves your very poor character and behavior. How do you sleep at night. That’s what I like to know.
How do you account for calling people, me in particular names in your latest message with no explanation in your hostile actions and malicious behavior against me. Not only that there’s no explanation. Now, you say you don’t like me adding further embarrassment to yourself and your propaganda to smear me without any reasoning whatsoever Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha how do you account for acting like an imbecile with no explanation and calling people’ names, me in particular.
THERE’S NO REASON FOR THIS WHATSOEVER GLEN.
The only reason, is to bully me into believing that you’re smear campaigns and fault accusations against me are justified that’s the only reason..
STATE YOUR CASE GLEN.
Please provide all the reasons for your hostile actions against me there’s nothing in your messages and explanation for your actions and your vile behavior against me.
PLEASE PROVIDE A VALID EXPLANATION. !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I DON’T WANT TO HEAR YOUR ERRONEOUS BS AND FALSE ACCUSATIONS ALONG WITH YOUR MALICIOUS TACTICS JUSTIFYING YOUR HOSTILE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS ME.
GLEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
STATE YOUR CASE OR CEASE AND DESIST WITH YOUR FRAUD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Without an explanation Glen you’re complete imbecile. Only a vile malicious low caliber individual would do something like this.
Ex thanks once again for remembering the convo me and doc had regarding $ bpgdm etc
We are at 20 and I remain keel in buy buy buy!
Also thanks a million for all you do and putting up with different crazy personalities including myself Jajaj
I recognize what you said your 46? So I give you the respect of an elder lol and also Jerry thx for the kind words the other day!
Also please nobody mes with Irish he is the ceo of the veterans club or Jerryâs uncle you fuk with him you fuk with us lol..
Lastly guys listen to matthews charts and docs voice and glens reasons, we are going to blast off and donât let any puck or bear scare you the fact they are like a virus lately tells you what is coming!
Glen
Thanks for your contributions as well Glenfidish. I agree that a reading near 20 on the BPGDM is an oversold area, and good spot to look at accumulating into weakness, and for a bottoming process in the mining stocks to become more probable.
Haha! I was only kidding the other day about me being your elder. I’m 44 turning 45 in a few weeks, so we are basically around the same age. OOTB called us puppies, so I joked that you and I were part of the puppy patrol here. LOL!
Also agreed about nobody messing with IrishT or OOTB (the original site veterans and initial welcome wagon crew on the site), the value of Matthew’s charts, the value of Docs technical analysis, and your technical outlook and reasoning that we are getting closer to a blast off.
Looking forward to the next move higher in the PMs and better sentiment in the sector, but also prepared to weather the storm if it lasts a bit longer.
Ever Upward!
Here’s a flash back to my comments on the BPGDM index from last July, right before the mining stocks topped a month later, and corrected down for the last year:
_________________________________________________________________________________
> On July 11, 2020 at 8:32 am,
Excelsior says:
“The biggest warning sign is that BPGDM Bullish Miners Percentage index going up to 100 recently. That last happened July 2nd, 2016 and serves a warning bell near an intermediate top.”
___________________________________________________________________________________
> On July 11, 2020 at 11:12 am,
Excelsior says:
“While the set up in PMs or the macro economic backdrop today is not anything like what it was in 2016, that Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index (BPGDM) hitting 100 is cause for concern that an intermediate top in the miners could be forming.”
“Something to keep an eye on and be aware of.”
___________________________________________________________________________________
> On July 11, 2020 at 2:03 pm,
Excelsior says:
“As mentioned above âBPGDM may be be able to stay elevated at 100 for bit longerâ however it rarely gets to a reading like that and the last time it did was 4 years ago in July of 2016 right before the miners topped.”
“Itâs a tool weâve discussed on here a number of times as confirming breath (and also sentiment) indicator at both tops and bottoms.”
___________________________________________________________________________________
>On July 12, 2020 at 12:51 pm,
Excelsior says:
” My only point was a simple one. With the BPGDM flashing 100 last week, it is a warning bell when 100% of gold stocks are a buy, to start paying attention to the overly bullish and frothy sentiment. Iâm not saying sell everything tomorrow, or that the miners canât go even higher for a few weeks. Iâm saying Iâm trimming back some of the bigger winners as paying attention to this indicator has served me well a number of times at critical turns in the past. Iâll be looking for more bullish strength to sell into over the next few weeks and believe there were be a better buying opportunity again in many names after things cool off a little bit.”
__________________________________________________________________________________
> On July 12, 2020 at 10:03 pm,
Excelsior says:
“All over the stock forums there are people celebrating and giving themselves high fives on the massive runs most mining stock have been on over at ceo, at stockhouse, on hotcopper, in the comments at Seeking Alpha, and it is definitely starting to get more euphoric in the sentiment. When that is confirmed by chart indicators like the BPGDM hitting 100 (which is extremely rare in itâs 20 year existence), or RSI and Slow Stochastics buried in the 80-100 range, then it seems quite unwise to dismiss those and go along just to get along with the herd, because it is a bull market.”
“Iâm sure there is some action left in this particular leg higher in the metals and the miners, and Iâll do my best to wring as much out of the next few weeks as possible, and I donât expect a terrible correction, because I expect the dip to be bought and for Gold to make a move at the all time high of $1923 this year. After that, then sure, a more meaningful correction may play through for a while.”
____________________________________________________________________________________
> On July 23, 2020 at 7:31 pm,
Excelsior says:
“If there is a correction that is starting, signaled by this under-performance in the miners, then it would not be a surprise. I had mentioned about 2 weeks back that the indicators, like BPGDM, RSI, Slow Stochastics, CCI, etc⊠were getting overbought, and we are way above most moving averages at this point. As has been repeatedly noted, Iâm quite aware that these indicators can stay overbought for longer than folks expect, but eventually the overbought conditions will correct in either price or time.”
On one of the other blogs, someone mentioned nobody was warning about a potential top or advocating to take some chips off the table last summer into the top.
Hopefully the post above, with multiple embedded posts about the caution warranted due to the overbought conditions, will correct the silly notion that people here are only perma-bulls, and never advocate selling into overbought conditions. đ
Dt,
Can you please elaborate because for the pass 2 years you keep repeating this! Are you saying conventional down and also miners or only conventional?
Thanks
I don’t know what a lot of the other traders/investors are doing here but I have been moving into cash. I don’t like what I am seeing with the economy and the conventional markets. Volume is low on a lot of stocks not good for a trader like me. A see a world of worry but if there is an opportunity to buy something where there is volume I will enter a trade and get out, I guess you might say this is the time for me to day trade.
This is for you GLEN
Glen, I really find it hilarious that you can call me names and tell me I’m a pain in the ars this is the latest Ha Ha completely erroneous BS. Never mind your false accusations and I proved without a shadow of a doubt your very deceptive and malicious trying to smear Michael Oliver and myself. Now the lastest, without any explanation whatsoever. I have nothing against you although you’re very malicious. There’s absolutely no explanation or reasons for your hostile behavior towards me calling me names etc. Very vile and malicious and proves your very poor character and behavior. How do you sleep at night. That’s what I like to know.
How do you account for calling people, me in particular names in your latest message with no explanation in your hostile actions and malicious behavior against me. Not only that there’s no explanation. Now, you say you don’t like me adding further embarrassment to yourself and your propaganda to smear me without any reasoning whatsoever Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha how do you account for acting like an imbecile with no explanation and calling people’ names, me in particular.
THERE’S NO REASON FOR THIS WHATSOEVER GLEN.
The only reason, is to bully me into believing that you’re smear campaigns and fault accusations against me are justified that’s the only reason..
STATE YOUR CASE GLEN.
Please provide all the reasons for your hostile actions against me there’s nothing in your messages and explanation for your actions and your vile behavior against me.
PLEASE PROVIDE A VALID EXPLANATION. !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I DON’T WANT TO HEAR YOUR ERRONEOUS BS AND FALSE ACCUSATIONS ALONG WITH YOUR MALICIOUS TACTICS JUSTIFYING YOUR HOSTILE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS ME.
GLEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
STATE YOUR CASE OR CEASE AND DESIST WITH YOUR FRAUD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Without an explanation Glen you’re complete imbecile. Only a vile malicious low caliber individual would do something like this.
Anybody got a favorite mining stock right now. My favorite is Emerita Resources.
Hi David. Personally I don’t have a favorite stock, as I hold a large basket of stocks, and like them all for different reasons, and believe they achieve different diversification and growth potentials in the portfolio.
At present my primary focus is on the precious metals stocks (having pulled in the focus some from many of the other commodity stocks like lithium, platinum/palladium, nickel, copper, uranium, etc…).
What I want to see in the stocks I pick are good projects, that have the potential to grow into even better projects through exploration upside, development upside, production expansion, or some kind of value creation that is accretive for the company and investors.
In addition to the value creation potential, I’m really looking for management teams that deliver on their guidance and strategy, and show that they can be trusted to continue to make wise decisions and execute on future initiatives. I’m not always looking for the A-team, but just people that go out and get results and make measured progress in a reasonable timeframe. I think there are about 200 or so names in the PM sector like that I own about 60 precious metals stocks out of that pool of companies.
The whole nuclear complex in mainland China/HK has gone ballistic today with double digit gains in some related companies from nuclear energy producers to manufacturers to builders of reactors.
Thanks for heads up on how the Chinese nuclear sector has fared so far today. It will be interesting to see if that translates over to a bump in the North American Uranium stocks today after a period of cooling off since last Wednesday’s big push higher.
As mentioned last week, I harvested gains in most of my Uranium stocks in the first half of last week finishing the scaling out by last Wednesday. Then I started adding back to my U stocks again starting last Friday, and then added to most on on the big sell down days on Monday and Tuesday this week. This took my basket of U stocks up to about 1/3 positions.
If there was a nice move in Uranium miners into this Friday, that would be fine, but let’s see if there is any carryover from Asian markets and nuclear energy companies into the North American markets to close up the week.
I got high hopes for CGN Mining. They got a lock on 49% of production from Ortalyk mine, purchased recently from Kazatomprom.
Credibility is important.
Agreed.
An individual trader investor who calls a bottom and is adamant in this case the gold market has made a final bottom right here and now with absolutely no reservations with outside chance they could be wrong with little reserves of capital left to deploy……
HAS ROCKS FOR BRAINS !!!!!
I understand they may have sell stop losses. They have a habit of not working, more than they work. Being stopped out especially on large positions can be very costly. If that’s the way they’re operating they could be whipsawed in and out in trying to establish a new position.
Precious metal mining shares are very volatile. Sell stop losses are not your best friend.
In conclusion, I don’t see how a individual investor trader is going to be successful in purchasing shares with sell stop losses. Including trailing sell stop losses as well.
ONE MAIN REASON WHY GARY SAVAGE STOPPED INVESTING IN MINING SHARES
BACK TO ROCKS FOR BRAINS !!!!!!
The very first paragraph of this message how in the hell are you going to be protected unless of course you’re 100% right and only an imbecile would think that with very little capital reserves left to deploy. Less than 5% which is absolutely nothing, so you don’t have any. -0-
TALKING ABOUT HANGING OFF THE EDGE OF A CLIFF
It’s a market drops out of your favor you’re going to be sweating it and that could be for a very long time. A few weeks is too long never mind several months. If purchased the mining shares you may never see a profit for many many months. That’s if you don’t sell and have the conviction to stay in it. THAT’S A WHACKATRADE !!!! = ROCKS FOR BRAINS
TELL ME I’M WRONG ROOKIE …..I DOUBLE DARE YOU
Anyone up for the debate how these style of trading investing above are not a fools game.
GIVE IT YOUR BEST SHOT !!!!! I’m tired of toxic BS
Hi Holy Grail. I believe you are raising some interesting points and questions for investors to consider, but you may have more engagement on these topics if you dialed back the “ALL CAPS”. It appears it is for emphasis, but some people may take it as yelling.
There are different trading and investing styles and strategies that work for different people based on their goals, time horizons for the trade, risk tolerance levels, and what criteria they weight more heavily than others (marcro economics, company or sector fundamentals, technical analysis, etc…). Some people may be accumulating into what they see as weakness and thus attractive valuations, where others may be concerned about more downside risk to come, and want to see proof of a recovery and new uptrend under way before buying.
Different strokes for different folks as the saying goes.
Wishing everyone well in their own unique trading styles and utilizing whatever systems work for them.
We’ll Ex, apparently you didn’t understand my entire message. These are two types of failed investing trading techniques. Most likely, and it’s not to be overlooked.
Unfortunately right now your comments are irrelevant because you didn’t digest or understand the entire message.
Also, I used caps because it’s justified.
My message has been delivered. I’m proving that there’s no reason for someone to keep they’re trading techniques a foolproof strategy. Yelling from rooftops. That can be further from the truth and it’s complete fraud. That’s the reason for my message. No, it’s not different strokes for different folks. It’s toxic information leading to losses.
Hi Holy Grail. I didn’t feel the comment I made was irrelevant, as there are different trading strategies that work for different types of investors, especially as it relates to the cyclical nature of commodities and resource stocks.
I realize some of your comments are directed at Glenfidish’s approach to the market and you guys are in a tussle over it, but I’m not interested in getting in the middle of that debate.
Apparently I didn’t understand your entire message, but that’s OK. I was just responding back to your message with a few personal thoughts and reflections. We are all here to share ideas and learn form one another. Cheers!
Thanks EX. That’s okay it’s all settled. It’s all toxic, I mean, what can I say, this is what somebody wants and directing comments at me that are that are completely irrelevant to any sense of the word talk about irrelevancy. Hostility with consistent derogatory words against me and no explanation whatsoever for the cause of the action just out of completely vile type imbecile behavior. Ha Ha that’s what they sign up for. They will just received back in return would they originally signed up proving they’re an imbecile with that kind of foolish behavior it’s a hands down final conclusion they’ve lost all better judgment including what I stated here.
Bottom line, every time there’s an action there’s going to be a reaction in return with that kind of behavior. If it stops, there’s no reaction by me or actions. There’s no aggression by me towards any contributors on here and I’m just going to react if anybody wants to sign up for this kind of behavior against me. They will have to deal what they signed up for.
Ha Ha they’re more than welcome to take their best shot at me. Nothing but a fool’s game and it can get very hilarious and extremely entertaining.
Visualizing Global Gold Production By Country In 2020
Visual Capitalist Elements – August 17, 2021
“Although gold mining is a global business, just three countriesâChina, Australia, and Russiaâaccounted for 31% of global gold production in 2020.”
https://www.mining.com/web/visualizing-global-gold-production-by-country-in-2020/
The History of the Abitibi Gold Belt
Niccolo Conte – September 13, 2021
“At the heart of Canada lies a greenstone belt that has provided the nation with more than 90% of its gold production. With more than 100 years of gold discovery in the Abitibi region located between QuĂ©bec and Ontario, this area was the kiln that helped forge the Canadian mining industry.”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-history-of-the-abitibi-gold-belt/
FedEx just painted a disturbing picture of the job market
Brian Sozzi· Editor-at-Large Wed, September 22, 2021
“The problem (one that may be getting worse, per FedEx)? Finding humans to accept jobs in a very tight labor market even at higher rates than what the specific job would have paid months ago. ”
“The impact of constrained labor markets remains the biggest issue facing our business as with many other companies around the world and was the key driver of our lower than expected results in the first quarter,” FedEx COO Raj Subramaniam told analysts on an earnings call.
Regarding bashing I don’t see that as a issue at all on this blog. Everything I’ve read from everyone in the last few weeks anyway has not been bashing it’s just realistic trading action with a good possibility of a decline into the end of the year.
The bashing comment I know who it came from and they’re trying to cause conflict because that’s what they’re doing with me.
Sure, there might be a little bit but it’s not out of control and I know Joe’s been negative but for very good reasons he’s been right. I’ve been cautiously bullish actually since about April I believe when we started to rally again and I still refused to add to any more positions because I wasn’t fully convinced it was a permanent bottom. At this time I’m still not convinced.
You know what the problem is its the perma bulls that’s the problem. If you’re not bullish every day they get upset. Adolescent type behavior. Get realistic. We’re now in a decline and you know to be critical because there’s a lot of bashing on here people are bearish is just completely unjustified and judgments misplaced completely those that complain.
It’s the same person causing conflict with me in particular.
If I can’t be on this blog discussing my analysis or opinion for the near future and whatever I consider everything is being censored. Being called names and there’s no justification for it only to be a victim of out of control abusive and malicious tactics. Where is the discipline because it’s out of control on that end. That’s probably for the reason I’m having some issues I don’t know because I’m very short-term possibly bearish and very cautiously bullish.
WHAT’S THE PROBLEM ? We’re not happy in here because the blind aren’t leading the blind.
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW and how about total out of the control abuse. Or is that just going to be glossed over and we’re just going to go on and say nothing’s wrong that’s okay huh. Many posts are deleted for a lot less abuse. WTH is going on there.
IT’S REALLY HYSTERICAL AND FUNNY. Haaaa Haaaaa comedy Central — he refuses to stop sticking his own foot in his own mouth. That’s what he’s does best.
Please ignore my post above. It’s too entertaining. Please keep the comments coming.
đđx10 IT’S A GOOD LAUGH !!!! If nothing else. If he keeps it up. That’s on him.
I’m not the aggressor. Definitely not. Please don’t go there that would be completely false.
IGNORE MY PREVIOUS POST AND COMMENTS. Apparently no one mines and I certainly don’t.
He wants to be a nuisance, I don’t give a rip. No one cares, neither do I. F.T.M.F.
The next cause célÚbre crisis:
“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the nation will run up against the debt ceiling sometime in October, which according to the calendar begins in a matter of days. She implored Congress to raise the debt limit so the nation doesnât default on its debts and thus send the world economy into uncharted waters.”
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fomc-meeting-federal-reserve/
Fed does nothing but continue the daily bailout of Wall Street. Gold gets immediately dumped on as Fed held meeting to do nothing. Full Moon makes everyone crazy. Politicians argue about who is worse while doing nothing to increase debt ceiling. Politicians threaten halt to government to threaten pay of all Civil Employees Now and RetiredâŠpoliticians not effected and congressional Inside Trading continues. People and media still tied up in social problems as rich get richer and future earnings of the Treasury are still funneled to Wall Street under the unaudited Fed Table. Regulators continue to be silent and no addresses corruption except forming committees that subpoena witnesses and documents that donât appear. Everyone de-regulates, does nothing and blames it on someone else.
Under the above scenario, precious metals have no value or so they say. Dictators around the world flourish, storms continue to destroy and people starving and homeless. No one cares as pandemic ravages people that are told it is their fault they are dead. Weeping is prevalent. But, it is only Thursday. More to come .
David,….. that is a good summary…. unpleasant , but TRUE….
The Joke is on WE THE PEOPLE….
Egon von Greyerz – Fed Has Lost Control; Weight of Debt Will Cause Bonds to Crash, Gold to Soar
Stansberry Resarch – Sep 21, 2021
“The Federal Reserve is always behind the curve and they cannot afford to tighten in this environment, claims Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management.”
“Stock markets are not reflecting the world economy, he told our Daniela Cambone, with liquidity being pumped in. Von Greyerz believes there’s a short-term high risk that investors are not confronting, and is staying firm with his position on gold.”
“He says silver can outperform gold in the coming months, but must deal with a more volatile nature.”
Same story continued…..
Yes indeed OOTB. And the band played on… đ
There is more to bonds crashing at this point……. SOCIETY is about to CRASH…
sorry, …. I should not have raised my voice so loud… đ
I am in RANTING MOOD…. đ
Haha! That’s just fine OOTB, as you are a superstar, and there are plenty of others ranting on this blog, so please rant away… đ
HA,…. thanks… đ
OOTB: Proceed…I have my volume down and capital letters on block.
Ha,Ha… good one David….
I am going to withhold some of my thoughts…. after all this is the mining section and
in the ORPHAN SECTION, .. I Rant all the time… lol.. đ
Haha! “capital letters on block” – Good one David.
Osisko drill results today: 632g/t au over 5.3 meters among others. I donât own any.
Erdene drill results included over 200 meters of 1.1 g/t and I donât own it either.
The Dollar’s crucial topping test will be monitored:
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/09/dollar-day-after.html
Strategic Resource Investor David Lotan Shares Mining Stock Tips
Mining Stock Education – Sept 23, 2021
0:00 Introduction
1:00 Davidâs background and path to investing in mining stocks
9:56 What is David Lotanâs ideal junior mining investment?
17:19 Best place to find ten-baggers?
20:30 Juniors can take risks that senior mining companies canât
22:27 What percentage of your portfolio is explorers?
25:31 Davidâs work with Aurion Resources
27:45 âGood exploration stories are a race between the shares outstanding and the drill bitâ
29:20 Your exit strategy for an exploration company?
30:20 One of your failed mining investments and what did you learn?
33:21 âI bought 80% of the stock I own in the secondary marketâ
37:49 First thing to get right is the macro-story for a commodities
40:47 Commodities you are most bullish on?
Just as a reminder, we were fortunate enough to have Dave Lotan as a guest of the KE Report a month ago on August 21st. Here is a replay of that interview for anyone interested in getting more of Dave’s take on how he approaches the mining sector.
____________________________________________________________________________
> Segment 1 and 2 â Dave Lotan, President of LHI (a family investment office) joins us to share what he looks for in individual resource stocks. This includes his outlook for commodities and the stocks he likes currently.
We also had Dave Lotan on prior to that to discuss his participation on the team with Aurion Resources, but he revealed a lot of interesting insights from his decades of investing that are woven through out the interview. He also outlines the renewed investor and company interest in exploring for Gold in Finland.
________________________________________________________________________________
#KorelinEconomicsReport (August 4, 2021)
“David Lotan, Non-Executive Chairman and Director of Aurion Resources Ltd (TSX.V:AU â OTC:AIRRF) joins us to introduce the Companyâs Aamurusko target at the Risti Project along the Sirkka Shear Zone in northern Finland. We start with an overview of the Companyâs history and the eventual transition from the prospect generator model into a true exploration focused company. David outlined his role, over the last few years, in building the shareholder registry of strategic investors such as Goldcorp, Kinross, Eric Sprott, and Ross Beaty. ”
I need to listen to this again, particularly while the markets pretend that the Fed said something.
Dave Lotan is a very sharp guy, and he has holdings in a larger basket of miners like we both do David, and it was nice to hear how he approached managing that portfolio, and what kinds of companies he is interested in. Getting Dave’s take on commodities and miners, as a hugely successful investor of 3-4 decades, and with 2 decades of investing in the resource sector, was a real blessing for investors here at the KER.
His recent interview on Mining Stock Education touches on some of the same areas but is also very well done.
long LXRX
New Found Gold ….. out with a nice report this morning……
New Found Reports 1,131 g/t Au and 568 g/t Au Rock Samples at New ‘Big Dave’ Showing 2km North of Lotto
Vancouver, BC, Sept 23, 2021: New Found Gold Corp. (âNew Foundâ or the âCompanyâ) (TSXV: NFG, OTC: NFGFF) is pleased to announce recent assay results from field sampling along the Appleton Fault Zone. High-grade gold surface grab samples have been found in a new area 2km north of the Lotto Zone at the Companyâs 100% owned Queensway Project (âQueenswayâ), located on the Trans-Canada Highway 15km west of Gander, Newfoundland.
Saliva falling on my shirt and rumlblings in my stocmach. Missed this one from the start Schwab wouldn’t trade it on the OTC initiallly. Learned my lesson to pick up the phone. NFG
Speaking of NFG, interview yesterday with CEO of Labrador Gold, they are on the same Aplleton Fault that NFG is and are doing some interesting drilling and sampling. Ido own this one.
Thanks for the update…… hope I did not spoil your morning… đ
Chart waatchers: Big Ridge Gold has some interest today but no news I can find. However, for those that like charts, it appears to be at the lower Doc’s Bollinger Band area. It is an early stage explorer but a history of prior mining in the area. It is also in the “‘Labrador” area. I think a known resource already of One Mil ounces. Anyway, it was just stirring. I do own it and would not have notieced the stirring if I didn’t.
SAND touched a penny below the low since the covid run up. US 5.94
Mr. Doc saw it as a buy at 5.60 to 5.20, FYI
I looked at my ânot as good as Matthewâs chartâ, and see Mr Docâs âit is at the lower Bollinger Band thingâ.
Good point on Sandstorm aghead. I’ve been trading SAND since the March 2021 dip earlier this year and it is back in a good accumulation area for sure. I added a bit to my position earlier today at $5.97. I have full confidence in Nolan Watson at the helm and their portfolio of 200 royalties and 29 producing royalties is looking more and more attractive the further SAND drops.
Paper metals getting trashed while my miners are overall up. Finally a pattern I enjoy.
Hmmm. Most of my miners are in the red today, not bad, but the bias is to the downside, with my overall account down just over 1%.
We’ll see how the day unfolds, but all 4 of the main mining ETFs (GDX) (GDXJ) (SIL) and (SILJ) are all down about 1.5%-2% today thus far, so overall it’s not a green day for many of the mining stocks… at least in the morning session.
Aspirations, Philosophy & Strategy of Emerging Gold Producers
6ix – w/ Matthew Gordon (CruxInvestor) as the panel moderator
“From here to cash-flow and everything in between. The lifecycle of a gold developer and the wisdom and lessons that have been learned by teams that have done it successfully before.”
George Salamis – President and CEO of Integra Resources (ITRG)
Doug Ramshaw – President and Director of Minera Alamos (MAI)
Alex Black – CEO of Rio2 Limited (RIO)
Patrick Downey – President and CEO of Orezone Gold Corp (ORE)
https://6ix.com/event/aspirations-philosophy-strategy-of-emerging-gold-producers/
Trillium Gold reported 9 meters at 19.73 g/t au âŠ.I donât own it but did once.
those averaging down missing another opportunity?? LOL
most large producers NEM AEM etc underperforming and at or below march lows, gold meanwhile holding above that 1670 or so march/august plunge level.
Yet many gold bugs in denial
Going grocery shopping as the Te Fed has stocked me up on bananas. Can’t live on those alone.
How can gold be in a bull market if it’s making lower lows and lower highs going back almost a year now.