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Recapping the Fed Meeting and what it means for precious metals investors

Cory댊
September 24, 2021

Brien Lundin, our Host at the New Orleans Investment Conference joins us to recap the Fed meeting this week and the related moves in precious metals. We look big picture at the set up for metals as the correction continues.

Click here to learn more about the upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference.

Discussion
83 Comments
    Joe
    Sep 24, 2021 24:22 AM

    There is NOTHING positive for gold right now.
    The markets in general are terribly weak, that will become glaringly obvious in the next couple of weeks.
    PMs will get pummeled when the market starts to roll over.
    Hopefully you’ve taken profits earlier this year, because if you haven’t you will watch any gains you have evaporate.
    Tax loss selling will be brutal and unrelenting going into November.
    Sell now, that way you won’t be one of the miserable, dour people at your Thanksgiving dinner.

      Sep 24, 2021 24:40 AM

      The last thing you want to do right now is sell a falling knife but to add when blood thirst is here. With your analogy you want investors to buy at tops and sell at near term bottoms lol?

      A wise man told me once if it smells rotten that cause it is 🙂

        Sep 24, 2021 24:43 AM

        that is ….stinken thinken… Lou Zigler… lol…

        BDC
        Sep 24, 2021 24:00 PM

        How do you catch a falling knife? … By the handle.

          Sep 24, 2021 24:17 PM

          +1 The Cup & Handle… LOL!

    BDC
    Sep 24, 2021 24:22 AM

    Best PM guess: Tuesday playable bottom.

    Sep 24, 2021 24:35 AM

    If it wasn’t for the gold fundamentals screaming on steroids because it’s never been better this type of action could go on for another 10 years easy up and down up and down just to complete traders market no long-term type investing strategies catching falling knives.

    Least I forget to mention the fundamentals and signs have never been better for.

    You guessed it: THE END GAME everyone will be caught in that snare. Approx. 99%

    You don’t have to look too far that we have a populous that is completely deceived and ignorant to everything. When the truth is staring at them right in the face.

      Sep 24, 2021 24:40 AM

      Ditto…… on the last line…..

        Sep 24, 2021 24:42 AM

        I think this will go along with your last line… 🙂
        https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/wealth-without-work

          Sep 24, 2021 24:51 AM

          All the signs of a failed state it’s etched in stone.

          The worst part about all this, bar none, first and foremost is they’re denying everything including the creation. Real punishment is ready to be unleashed. Permanently.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:59 AM

            HG……. ditto…. on the creation…

            Sep 24, 2021 24:04 PM

            👍 everyone should use some real critical thinking skills right now and do the math before it’s too late. You can’t relive the decision later and change your mind the fate is set.

            b
            Sep 24, 2021 24:49 PM

            “Punishment” might happen in the U.S. and their vassals but Russia has no debt and China is going to let those companies that go bankrupt….go bankrupt.
            Pretty capitalist actually.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:54 PM

            Putin is my rich uncle. lol

        Sep 24, 2021 24:57 AM

        You guys are way to young…. knowing anything about the 70’s and inflation….
        I think most of the statements are not even close to the same, nor , can you compare
        70’s and 2021….. JMO…

          Sep 24, 2021 24:00 PM

          The FAKE FED.,,,, has screwed with your minds…. JMO….

          Sep 24, 2021 24:04 PM

          The comparison between now and the 1970s was more along the lines of the rise we see with inflation at the same time that growth may be slowing to a plateau, with GDP estimates being revised lower. If we have rising inflation, rising wages, and slowing growth, then we may be entering a time of Stagflation. That was the analogy to the 1970’s we were eluding to.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:07 PM

            Very significant difference between now and the seventies the debt burden is astronomical now and they can’t raise rates. Whether we have a delationary event or not we are going to hyperinflate out of this in a catastrophic apocalyptic type scenario.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:13 PM

            Yes, the debt just keeps growing larger and larger for sure, and will prevent them from hiking rates much above 2%, but they still keep telegraphing they plan on raising rates in late 2022 or early 2023. A number of other central banks have started hiking rates that also have record levels of debt, so they are starting to tighten some, but no there wont be the endless hikes like the 1970s in that sense.

            Typically rate hikes as the central banks are perpetually behind the curve, in a rising inflation environment have been good for gold prices.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:15 PM

            I know we can get into a lengthy discussion …. comparing then and now….
            … Stagflation, …. and Depression….. should be more comparison….
            Stagflation, has been around for sometime , without many noticing it….
            Wages… go back and look the Year 2000….average earnings…
            Use the US DEBT CLOCK…
            Inflation…. on every goods and service…. House, Auto(joke) , School debt..that one is really a joke.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:21 PM

            They’re always behind the curve that’s been from day one. These bubble assets when they implode is going to take everything down with it and everyone included. No one’s prepared for that because they never see it coming and they never will. The gates are wide open for the slaughterhouse. Very very few survivors. It’s going to be a great depopulation event.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:30 PM

            Good thoughts and comments OOTB and Holy Grail. Thanks guys!

            Sep 24, 2021 24:00 PM

            Ex, thanks, although the thoughts are worth what you paid for them. lol

            I have an account with Go Fund Me. LOL we’ll, it’s better than working a job.

            Ha Ha I want to make that clear with the big lol. Should be no second thoughts there.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:08 PM

            Understood. Yes, good price at $Free.99 Haha!

            Sep 24, 2021 24:10 PM

            Good one !!!

            Is that my tip. I’ve been sold short. Ha Ha

          Sep 24, 2021 24:23 PM

          70’s were some of the best years of my life…Oh yah

            Sep 24, 2021 24:43 PM

            As a kid, I was likely very happy in the 70’s, at least in pictures. 🙂

            I remember the 80’s more and loved that decade.

            Honestly one of the best years of my life has been the last year, despite all the overarching drama in the news.

            Things started off with a perk by getting to work from home, then I parted ways from a stressful job with a nice severance package, we took a big trip to North Carolina, and epic vacation to Colorado to visit Boulder, Denver, Co. Springs, another epic trip to Nevada & Utah, we sold our house for a nice profit in a hot real estate market, drove the country twice from TN to the west coast, (seeing 11 states one trip, 9 states the voyage), have been out hiking over 20 national and state parks in mountains, in deserts, near lakes, near oceans, by waterfalls & rivers, in majestic forests (with hardly any humans out to ruin the natural beauty), and relocated to the area we dreamed of moving to.

            To top it all off I got a job here at the KE Report with a very cool boss and get to serve the community here, which I’ve grown to love and have been active here with for over a decade. This was one of the best years of my life, and looking forward to many more… Ever Upward!

            BDC
            Sep 24, 2021 24:26 PM

            “Life is good!” ~ Hickok45

            Sep 24, 2021 24:13 PM

            Hi Ex, If you haven’t seen “The Best Years of Our Lives”, a movie that won best picture in 1946 it is a classic. It was directed by William Wyler, it’s about three GI’s that return home after World War II, to find that a life that they had dreamt to return to is a total disaster. Tells you a lot about how War brings out the best and worst in humans, and how we desire human interaction, excitement, and human caring that goes along with living in a dangerous lifestyle. Something that is missing in our lives today. DT

            Sep 24, 2021 24:25 PM

            DT – Thanks for the film recommendation and for making a solid point about the ingrained desire we have for human interaction and caring, along with living an active life.

            Sep 25, 2021 25:46 AM

            Ex – it sounds like we have a lot in common especially the past few years. I am really living my best life right now!

            Sep 25, 2021 25:48 PM

            That is really great to hear Charles. While these are turbulent times, they can also be times of opportunity and adventure. To the great life!!

      Sep 24, 2021 24:43 AM

      Great Host and all the questions wisely and educated many on the real rates today in comparison with the 70s..

      Also great question by both Cory and ex! Keep up the great work..

        Sep 24, 2021 24:01 PM

        Thanks Glenfidish.

          Sep 24, 2021 24:18 PM

          The interview was good,
          I did enjoy Brien…. just saying… 🙂

            Sep 24, 2021 24:19 PM

            And thanks for the hard work…..

            Sep 24, 2021 24:25 PM

            And please do not be offended by MY above RANT…. 🙂

            Sep 24, 2021 24:35 PM

            No offense taken my friend. OOTB I was a toddler in the 1970s, so I wasn’t following finances at that point. Haha!

            However, one can still review historical data and market trends to make comparisons between different market periods, and we’ve had a number of analysts make the same comparison between now in the 1970s (Trader Vic, John Rubino, Brien Lundin, Peter Boockvar, etc..) In that sense it wasn’t just us youngsters making that observation. 😉

            Sep 24, 2021 24:07 PM

            There’s no comparison between now on the ’70s the dynamics are dramatically different.
            Many reasons. There’s quite a few and keeping this brief.

            Sep 24, 2021 24:21 PM

            Conditions Are Ripe For Repeat Of 1970s Stagflation and 2008 Debt Crisis

            Nouriel Roubini – Fri 2 Jul 2021 – The Guardian

            “In April, I warned that today’s extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies, when combined with a number of negative supply shocks, could result in 1970s-style stagflation (high inflation alongside a recession). In fact, the risk today is even bigger than it was then.”

            “After all, debt ratios in advanced economies and most emerging markets were much lower in the 1970s, which is why stagflation has not been associated with debt crises historically. If anything, unexpected inflation in the 1970s wiped out the real value of nominal debts at fixed rates, thus reducing many advanced economies’ public-debt burdens.”

            “Conversely, during the 2007-08 financial crisis, high debt ratios (private and public) caused a severe debt crisis – as housing bubbles burst – but the ensuing recession led to low inflation, if not outright deflation. Owing to the credit crunch, there was a macro shock to aggregate demand, whereas the risks today are on the supply side.”

            “We are thus left with the worst of both the stagflationary 1970s and the 2007-10 period. Debt ratios are much higher than in the 1970s, and a mix of loose economic policies and negative supply shocks threatens to fuel inflation rather than deflation, setting the stage for the mother of stagflationary debt crises over the next few years.”

            https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/02/1970s-stagflation-2008-debt-crisis-global-economy

            Sep 24, 2021 24:24 PM

            Stagflation Worries Ignite Comparisons To Carter’s 1970s

            3 weeks ago

            “Former Reagan economic adviser Art Laffer provides insight into inflation, energy prices and the U.S. economy. ”

            “Surging consumer prices and gasoline shortages have sparked concerns the U.S. economy could relive the nightmarish stagflation of President Jimmy Carter’s administration in the late 1970s.”

            “Stagflation is defined as a period of inflation with declining economic output. ”

            “The economy under Carter experienced inflation and unemployment that were both in the double digits as the result of an oil price shock that began when Iranian oil workers went on strike. ”

            “Six months ago, America was energy-independent. Now we have gas lines,” tweeted House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. “President Biden is well on his way to creating another Jimmy Carter economy.”

            https://swppr.org/stagflation-worries-ignite-comparisons-to-carters-1970s/

            Sep 24, 2021 24:31 PM

            That ’70’s Show – The Stagflation Rerun: Jack Mintz In The Financial Post

            By Jack Mintz, June 18, 2021

            “Welcome to stagflation — for now. Compared to pre-pandemic January 2020, both unemployment and year-over-year inflation are up two percentage points. When prices and unemployment are rising at the same time, that’s stagflation.”

            “Stagflation is typically the result of supply shock. On October 19, 1973, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stopped exporting oil to the United States and its allies in reaction to U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur war. The embargo led to a quadrupling of oil prices and an economic slowdown in 1974 and 1975. Despite rising unemployment, U.S. inflation rose from six per cent in 1973 to an average of 9.5 per cent the next two years. Stagnant growth plus inflation equalled “stagflation.’

            “The recession of 2020 was also the result of a supply shock. People were told to stay home and many businesses were closed. The unemployment rate shot up to over 14 per cent in both Canada and the U.S. That would normally depress household incomes and therefore consumer demand, but governments came to the rescue, providing deficit-financed income relief to households and businesses. Aggregate household income actually rose by roughly a tenth in 2020 in both Canada and the U.S. despite a steep drop in employment income. Saving rates rose sharply as locked-down households had few spending options.”

            “At first, the consumer price index fell but as health restrictions were lifted economies began to bounce back. By this spring, unemployment had fallen rapidly though it remains close to six per cent in the U.S. and eight per cent in Canada, well above the pre-pandemic levels of 3.5 and 5.6 per cent, respectively. With stored-up savings now available for consumers to spend, U.S. prices have risen by 5.8 per cent (annualized) over the last six months and by 4.1 per cent since Jan. 1, 2020. As reported Wednesday, Canada’s inflation rate picked up to 3.6 per cent (year-over year) in May and has been running at an annualized 4.0 per cent since January. That compares to inflation of 1.7 per cent in 2019. By all counts we have stagflation.”

            https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/70s-show-stagflation-rerun-jack-mintz-financial-post/

            Sep 24, 2021 24:32 PM

            The difference is, the United States wasn’t running a trade deficit, a trade surplus. The debt of course is astronomical compared to then. The FED had a clean balance sheet.

            There’s no wiggle room here. The event leading to all these failed toxic policies is going to look like the word that starts with a capital A. wink wink

            Sep 24, 2021 24:34 PM

            See, it isn’t just us youngsters making the comparison between now and the 1970s, and isn’t even some of our key KER contributors like Trader Vic, John Rubino, Jesse Felder, Brien Lundin, and Peter Boockvar. I could go on…. but clearly there are financial pundits that are seeing the comparisons, with a few tweaks due to massive debt loads and unprecedented levels of central bank intervention.

            “While history doesn’t always repeat, it often rhymes.”

            Sep 24, 2021 24:51 PM

            Very true, but this one’s not going to rhyme it’s going to be a completely different outcome.

            No comparison to the different dynamics and all these guys you’re listening to are going to tell us what we want to hear. All is well !!! Just do this, and you’ll be fine. 👎👎x infinity. Selling subscriptions and promoting their book. Everyone has a method to their madness. Very few few few few are going to lead you to the promised land and that is guaranteed 100%.

            Hey, I got a piece of land to sell you Morgue City.

    Sep 24, 2021 24:08 PM

    China’s Top Regulators Ban Crypto Trading And Mining, Sending Bitcoin Tumbling

    Reuters – Sep 24, 2021

    “China’s most powerful regulators on Friday intensified a crackdown on cryptocurrencies with a blanket ban on all crypto transactions and mining, hitting bitcoin and other major coins and pressuring crypto and blockchain-related stocks.”

    “Ten agencies, including the central bank, financial, securities and foreign exchange regulators, vowed to work together to root out “illegal” cryptocurrency activity, the first time the Beijing-based regulators have joined forces to explicitly ban all cryptocurrency-related activity.”

    https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/china-turns-the-screws-in-crypto-crackdown-2625616

      Sep 24, 2021 24:22 PM

      Should be interesting …. going forward…for BITCON…..
      $500,000 is projection by one person… lol….

        b
        Sep 24, 2021 24:54 PM

        Nothings says it wont.
        And gold could hit 10k or 100k, who knows how far the dollar could fall?

        Sep 24, 2021 24:06 PM

        Yep, OOTB, the regulation aspect to the Cryptos could be a real headwind, and with China cracking down and banning the cryptocurrencies today, that is not helping their cause.

        Bitcoin down near 6% today, Ethereum down over 7%, Pretty fugly out there in the cryptoverse on this news, but will be interesting to watch how things develop in regulation from other countries. Also the Fed is preparing to release their big white paper on digital currencies, so soon we may have Fedcoin, competing with Bitcoin.

        Bitcoin is still at very high historic levels at $42K. Can it get up to $500K? We’ll see…

          Sep 24, 2021 24:26 PM

          The good news is this keeps up every day for a week they’ll be hitting there intrinsic values.

          Hint Hint

          That’s the good news because all that capital could be put to use for better causes and what else, you guessed it the precious metals markets.

          J POW will just increases naked shorts in the precious metals markets and it won’t make any difference at all. lol you can always count on the Fed.

      Sep 24, 2021 24:32 PM

      Finally done something right considering all the other damage they’ve done.

        Sep 24, 2021 24:14 PM

        It’s a pretty controversial stance that China has taken banning cryptos, and it has many Crypto bulls in a fuss, but we’ll see how it all plays out over time.

          Sep 24, 2021 24:24 PM

          Xi realised all that cryptodata is beyond his reach. He’s made a deal with alipay and wechat money, gaining full access to all their data.

      BDC
      Sep 24, 2021 24:37 PM

      Two ways to Crypto destruction:
      1. Brute Force (China).
      2. Destroy confidence (psyop).

      Sep 24, 2021 24:37 PM

      Key Detail In China’s Crypto Crackdown Is Callout Of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether

      Sept. 24, 2021 By Mark DeCambre – Marketwatch

      “China on Friday reiterated its crackdown on cryptocurrencies in the world’s second largest economy and the latest statement from the People’s Bank of China has put pressure on the broader digital-asset complex.”

      “The Chinese government said that it will “resolutely clamp down on virtual currency speculation, and related financial activities and misbehavior in order to safeguard people’s properties and maintain economic, financial and social order,” intensifying China’s ongoing clampdown, including on mining bitcoin, which has weighed on crypto sentiment.”

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-crackdown-on-crypto-notable-for-pboc-call-out-of-bitcoin-ethereum-and-tether-11632490610

    Sep 24, 2021 24:12 PM

    I am fascinated regarding docs short the equity market…If it goes down more he is still short…If it fails to and moves up he will have already taken profits per the monthly B.B.

    Medical non-care teaches slippery communications?..lmao

      Sep 24, 2021 24:16 PM

      I’ve put on a small market short using the inverse EFT (SPXS), watching to see if we roll back over from the recent relief rally and head lower, but will exit the position if we see the markets surge higher next week. I’m not expecting a crash, but 5-10% more downside corrective action in the general markets may be on the menu.

        Sep 24, 2021 24:12 PM

        EX-I appreciate that straightforward explanation regarding your trade plan…Very good sense and shows knowledge of market tops and .618 retracements…..Which we have in spades in all 4 major equity indexes…I chose to see how Monday looks…..you handle a lot of info. extremely well…that is a talent that few have….GLTA

          Sep 25, 2021 25:42 AM

          Thanks Larry.

    Sep 24, 2021 24:05 PM

    Another nothing burger. Doen – .045%

      Sep 24, 2021 24:06 PM

      Down – .045% for day.

        Sep 24, 2021 24:39 PM

        My portfolio was down 1.3% today, and I would have preferred for it to be up 1.3%.

    Sep 24, 2021 24:03 PM

    Today’s technical action could have been worse but much of the early bullish action was undone later in the day, albeit on weak volume. So, uncertainty remains and significant further downside could happen fast. The “good” thing is that at least a short term low is probable very soon if today wasn’t it.
    Gold held onto the 2 year MA today yet again. The only close below it happened on August 9th, the day of the late night raid that took gold and silver down 5% and 8.5% respectively.
    Gold:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=22&id=p43659394191&a=1006074458

    Sep 24, 2021 24:33 PM

    The XAU has speed line and fork support 2.5% and 3% below today’s close…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p25048772207&a=1012440604

    Sep 24, 2021 24:36 PM
    Sep 24, 2021 24:18 PM

    Redeem the time because the days are evil

    THE END GAME unleashed

    Wise men prepare and they don’t waiver

    Sep 24, 2021 24:40 PM

    Ray Dalio on Evergrande, China, Bitcoin and the Fed

    September 21st, 2021 – Bloomberg

    “Ray Dalio, founder and co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, talks about the China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis, doing business in China, the value of Bitcoin and when the Federal Reserve might start to taper its monthly bond purchases. He spoke to Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance” from the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-09-21/ray-dalio-on-evergrande-china-bitcoin-and-the-fed-video

    Sep 24, 2021 24:43 PM

    In terms of the physical price for both gold and silver, it has been a disappointing year… Yet again! I really thought we would get positive in the back half of this year. Alas it seems we are on a slow grind down in the interim.

    Silver at $22 is a real let down. After last year I was hoping for run into the $30 range in the second half of this year. That seems pretty far fetched at the moment.

      Sep 25, 2021 25:04 AM

      I am on record as saying….. last year…. when gold cup was filling,..at the time.
      I was not interested in silver, until it broke $30-32…..
      Silver has stalled, but, …I think it is worth looking at again…. LONG TERM…
      JMO

    Sep 24, 2021 24:08 PM

    Better luck next time !!! 🤞 Precious metals are high risk, extremely volatile and the average Joe should stay out if he knows what’s good for him.

    It’s all about timing and techniques employing strategies that “”always””make money. Where second guesses are not allowed. Go Gold !!! Most likely not until after November December time frame. I certainly hope so. Perfect setup for the launching pad for next year. 🚀🚀🚀⬆️

      Sep 24, 2021 24:20 PM

      The setup is complete when we have much more pessimism into year end and more selling driving prices down further 🤞 at least another 20% or 30%. Back up all the semi trucks.

      Launching pad for the moonshot !!!

    BDC
    Sep 24, 2021 24:52 PM

    The GDX chart is so bad that it may bounce out of pity…lol.

      Sep 24, 2021 24:07 PM

      It’s all up to J POW when you stops naked shorting stinkin gold shares.

      Don’t fight the Fed. lol

    Sep 24, 2021 24:44 PM

    This is not going to resemble the 1970s because we have a totally different set of circumstances. This is why I like to think independently and fade the analyst’s.

    Are these analysts that people are listening to factoring into the equation that covid-19 is a bio weapon to deploy genocide against humanity ? Oh I bet that’s glossed over and ignored.
    We also have a massive invasion across our southern borders almost like a trojan horse these are terrorists who will help destroy this nation adding further mayhem when the financial collapse takes place. We have treasonous politicians everywhere.

    There’s nothing here that’s going to resemble the 1970s that’s being very optimistic on steroids. Highly unlikely anything that is going to be close to normal. Society is not going to continue like before it’s almost going to be impossible with all the dynamics taking place and protocols. No, this collapse it’s on the table right now waiting in the queue ready to be released will bring annihilation to a society that’s lost all of their better judgment with everything.

    It’s all downhill from here in a death spiral that’s going to cause a massive depopulation event. We’re all dancing on the Titanic. What’s really fascinating and inconceivable that people don’t see this coming they’ve lost their ability to think critically. Blinded by their own ignorance and pie in the sky dreams that will never come true with the circumstances we have today. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE !!! The consequences are dire. The analysts are totally deceived themselves. With very few exceptions everyone’s getting everything wrong.