Silver breaking down and the US Dollar breaking higher – What’s it going to take to turn the PMs?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to share his insights on the breakdown in silver and continued breakdown in the metals stocks. This is also timing with a breakout in the US Dollar. Overall almost everything is going against the precious metals; technically, inflation wise, sentiment. This could be a great contrary indicator.
Jail
Yeah, a break below $22 opens up that high $18’s – $19 zone as next support. Jordan mentioned a level of $18.70 in this editorial.
This all synchs up well with where Christopher Aaron mentioned he saw first support at $21.50 and then longer-term support and a potential areas for a bottom in Silver at $18.50 in our last discussion with him.
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Christopher Aaron – Gold And Silver Technical Update Sept 14, 2021
(Silver comment at longer term support at the 16:20 min mark in the discussion)
It is uncanny how many times the PM sector takes a dump right around a big metals conference. First gold started correcting before the Denver Gold Show and Beavercreek, and now silver.
There has been a Silver Symposium going on this week in Idaho that wrapped up yesterday. I’m sure these Silver prices floated over the event like a lead balloon…
HEY Ex, I bought bigly into Provenance, CES-PAU, I just can’t resist owning big whacks of penny shares these days, lately it has worked out for me, we’ll see.
Luc Ten’s list of junior mining companies with cash balances and low market caps’
Hi DT – Yeah Provenance is an interesting one, hitting economic grades in Nevada and they believe they are sniffing out a similar oxide gold deposit that is quite similar to the nearby Black Pine deposit being developed by Liberty Gold. It is still earlier days in their exploration, but it will be interesting to see how their ongoing drilling at the White Rock project unfolds. Their secondary project at Mineral Hill looks quite prospective for Silver & Gold as well. May it be a prosperous position for you sir.
DT – Thanks so much for posting that table from Luc Ten Have on the smaller micro cap stocks that are cashed up to keep doing more work. He’s such a sharp guy, and good reminder as we need to invite him back on the show.
I notice at first glance that Volcanic Gold is sitting pretty on that list, and while I believe Simon and the team at VG have in fact made a new discovery at Holly, so far the market has not woken up to that yet. Much appreciated.
Here’s another great thread from LucTenHave on all the newly listed IPOs in the Junior miners that have tanked in 2021, pushing off from the gate with a rough start. Check out the accompanying charts on these newly minted mining Jrs.
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Luc ten Have @luctenhave 6:35 AM · Sep 28, 2021·Twitter Web App
“In ’20, jr mining investors had a great year. The TSX & TSX-V miners raised $4.8B in PP’s (’19: $3.4B). ’21 started promising with $0.97B PP’s in Jan & Feb. Investors were eager for opportunities w/ many new listings. So far, ’21 has been difficult for the new listings.”
“Examples:”
Leviathan Gold
Zacatecas Silver
Stringer Resources
Kingfisher
Mayfair Gold
American Eagle
Tier One Silver
Millennial PMs
Simon Ridgeway is a oner, he put a halt on Rackla Metals May 5th, and the halt hasn’t come off yet . He does this all the time, the stock barely gets a chance to trade and then a halt happens. If you buy in and don’t get your money out it sits there waiting for the next trading interval to be allowed. Eventually, it will be much higher and that will happen when he gets all his ducks in place and stops the halts. Rackla is involved in acquiring a 3.1 million ounce deposit in Africa. LOL!
Moriarty had Provenance on his recent list of “low hanging fruit”. His comments were limited but indicated the President of Provenance (Rauno Pettu) believes his project is an “analog” to the Black Pine Project of Liberty Gold which is across the border in Idaho. Liberty has a market cap 26times larger than Provenance (but also has a 2million ounce gold resoure so far). FWIW
Here we go, time for silver to break down.
Looking for it to go below 20 sometime in the next month.
Nothing to crow about for PMs, they pain they experience will only be overshadowed by the pain felt by any freedom loving American in the next few years.
The Democrats have seized power and they WILL NOT give it up without a literal fight.
Gavin Newsom has made mail in voting permanent in CA, and that will likely come to many other states in the US.
When they talk about “fortifying” the elections, they are basically stating that they are making sure their rigging will be forever in place. This is to insure a PERMANENT state of rule by the Democratic party. Joe Biden himself said he doesn’t expect the Republican party will even exist come 2024. This is not some flip remark, they will push out all dissent and rule over you like the dictators they really are.
They will enforce this via the IRS and PERMANENT enforcement of mandates via Covid. If you want a job, an apartment or if you want to go to any retail location you be injected with anything they want to inject you with. This will happen at least once a year, no dissent will be tolerated.
If you resist, you will go to jail.
Welcome to the brave new world, compliments of the DNC.
Powdered Toast Man would disagree with your negative view.
The dollar appears to want to strengthen into the end of the year while the PMs will show no significant strength through the rest of the year.
Wednesday Quality: https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
PMs: Spike low bounce after Dollar drop?
Oil topping as Uranium bottoms.
Debt Limit conundrum.
Gold : https://postimg.cc/wRv36kt9
Hash Red = 78.6% retracement.
Natural Bounce. More?
Professor Who Called Dow 20,000 Says He’s Nervous About Trends In Inflation That Could Spark A Stock Market Correction
Mark DeCambre – Market Watch – September 29, 2021
“Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.”
The Wharton professor credited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”
“The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.”
Inflation Rate Hits 30-year high, PCE shows, As U.S. Confronts Major Shortages
Jeffry Bartash – Market Watch – Aug. 27, 2021
“The rate of inflation in the U.S. rose again in July and drove the increase over the past year to a 30-year high, pointing to fresh strains on businesses and consumers as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Americans are paying more for a variety of goods and services as inflation eats into their incomes.”
Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Says US Stocks Are In A Crazier Bubble Than In 1929 – But This ‘Vampire’ Market Is Shrugging It Off
Harry Robertson- Wed, September 29, 2021 – Business Insider
“Jeremy Grantham has said US stocks are in a magnificent bubble which is crazier than 1929.”
But he said the market is like “a vampire” that is hard to kill and will just shrug off bad news.
“Grantham said meme stocks, SPACs and cryptocurrencies are signs of market craziness.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham-says-104259678.html
Here’s another great post from @LucTenHave, showing just how many times Robert Kyosaki has called for a crash in the general stocks markets all the way up for the last 12 years. Very instructive post!
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Luc ten Have @luctenhave – 3:25 AM · Sep 26, 2021· Twitter Web App
“Always be careful with other people’s predictions”
Futures in metals up tonight…but will we feel the same in the morning?
3-4 hour walk down in gold. I am sure it is not intervention because it is just hedging by alfalfa farmers…
So far Doc has been right in spades
Yes, thus far Doc Postma and Jordan Roy-Bryne have been fairly correct in how this year has played out sideways to down, with many of the miners retracing back down to near or below their March lows. Christopher Aaron has been pretty cogent about the larger trend for the last 2 years as well, as noted above when discussing the support levels he was watching in Silver in that repost from earlier this month. We are blessed to have technicians like this to bring on the KE Report show as guests.
I’m not a wizard but you go back way back then and I’m certain 80% I called “M” pattern also know as “ Double top “ in the “Miners specifically. Jordan or doc never mentioned that before I did. I wish I was as savvy as Matthew and ex getting older post specifically that one of importance at a critical time. Give credit to others as well we busy are behind.
Cheers
From a quarterly perspective I like silver here and today could possibly put in a final bottom. Yes folks you here it a “ Possible” bottom. My downside target mathematically speaking and for the ones who enjoy my posts is $19.50 most downside to $20.20. My sense is could just undercut $20 and rise and close out the quarter above $20 which would be really bullish in my eyes.
If my scenario is going to happen, it will happen today. Let’s see what gives. And yes buying opportunity for the miners.
Hey Glenfidish, yes you’ve had good technical insights as well as many other chartists on the blog like Matthew, Larry, BDC, Dan Calgary, etc… My comment above was just geared around guests we had on the show. There are even other technicians I didn’t mention there like Steve Penny and Goldfinger, etc… It wasn’t an exhaustive list, but just a few guests that called it well using the monthly charts.
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (09/29/2021)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Thanks for the mid-week Ira. I think he said the metals can remain “oversold” longer than I can I can stay alive…waiting for better news. 😶
Maybe better Friday for the metals. I will eat some oatmeal.
Jamie Dimon’s cat got to the gold computer. Up… that cat better run.
Jaja David
When your feeling like that, I bet the low is very close.
Looks like I spoke earlier and out a bottom in silver. Would be nice to finish higher here for the quarter.
Low for silver is in the bag… lol….
try finding the stuff on the street at $20…. lol……
OctoberFest……starts tomorrow…… 🙂
It’s crazy we are already getting ready for Octoberfest…. This year has really flown by.
Ditto Ex…….. so true….. and before you know it,…. Oct 2022 will be here before we know what is happening…. 🙂
Maybe , we should enroll in a youth camp, ….maybe for 12 year olds,,, remember how slow time passed… lol…..
(please no perverted thinking from the zoo..).. 🙂
If I am a a leading indicator when feeling like that, then I have been predicting a botton 90% of the time. We only get an up market for a couple of months here and there over time. Happ to be here…glad to serve. Old military thing…
Happ = happy
We are happy to have you serving here for sure David, as well as your prior service.
Sometimes I think being in the Military was safer than being in the markets…they were only trying to kill you in the military.
/GC weekly…Price requires 2 closes above the Bullish structured TAS profile…Its blue dash bottom is at 1758…..This week looks to be forming hammer candle which will be bullish……Future volumes quite large for this time in the day….Daily is so far a massive bullish slashing candle and is already back in the upper price range and with-in TAS profile at 1749…Weekly may test the top of its consolidation as defined by TAS top in order to pull in buyers…fine w me…Setting up a very tradable rally…IMHO
Sounds very good…thanks.
/GC day….Price recaptured the slight lower price range below 1740 and is within the equally spaced, hence neutral, TAS profile the blue dashed lines….Has the look of bottom even if not the bottom for this yearly cycle…Adds credence to concept that gold is consolidating and not tanking…It will tank if equity does…TAS top at 1776.3 if broken through and above is total confirmation of rally mode…no promises, even in your rose garden…Wave counts of F and G typically signal bottoms when fibonacci targets are reached…This is exactly what we have…
https://tos.mx/ChBtZgw
Doc,
What are your thoughts regarding Agnico stock? I hold it but before I add to my position I want to know your thoughts.
Doc said there would be no significant strength through the end of the year and I would assume that applies to AEM since its chart is so similar to those of GDX and GDXJ.
I think it’s a buy right here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p47156345741&a=977703006
I also think a good sell stop would be another weekly close below the 233 week MA since it is superimposed with a fork support that I believe has merit. It is currently at 51.42, less than one dollar/1.5% below…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p53725550600&a=1034994305
Thanks Matthew!
Since/GC day only retraced less than 70%, which is less than .786 max. retracement, of the A to B leg, it may still qualify for an AB=CD up…We will see how price comes into the B point of 9/3 swing high, volume wise…This assumes it clears all the other resistance first,of course…glta…I believe this move is contingent on the general equities hang together in the consolidation range….other wise i will eject….my nugt stop is now 39.18, calculated as 1.618 X average true range, then subtracted from entry price…
SILVER BREAKING DOWN AND THE US DOLLAR BREAKING HIGHER – WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO TURN THE PMS?
Divine intervention.