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Gold and Silver – Stock are washed out but the metals prices are providing hope

Cory댊
October 6, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to focus on the precious metals sector and the continued divergence between the stocks and the gold and silver prices. The metals price holding above support and in the very near term starting to diverge from the US equity markets is providing metals bulls with hope that a bounce in the stocks is coming. We discuss how this factors into the consensus that US market need to fall to bring more attention to the PMs.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

Discussion
48 Comments
    Joe
    Oct 06, 2021 06:37 AM

    PMs are toast, they have NOTHING going for them.
    PM miners are worse, their costs are skyrocketing and the prices of the metals are going down. They are getting squeezed on both sides.
    Shareholders caught in the middle will get crushed.
    This sector will experience nothing but pain for at least another year.
    But your investments shouldn’t be your concern now. You should be concerned about your eroding freedoms.

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:50 AM

      Freedom just another word for nothing left to do.

      Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:11 PM

      Hmmm…Very Interesting… Note to self

      Reply
      BDC
      Oct 07, 2021 07:56 AM

      I like my toast charred!

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:57 AM

    HMY broke out of a bullish falling wedge yesterday and is providing good follow-through today.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMY&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p40195792504&a=1038069350

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:12 PM

      Yellow looking good

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:01 PM

    The Canadian dollar fell just enough to almost fill Monday’s gap (it needed to fall another .01 to completely fill it).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=13&id=p44327075146&a=524751879

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:13 PM

      Sometimes the Freeway has a crowd

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:05 PM
    Oct 06, 2021 06:12 PM

    Based on several factors, the odds that we’ve seen an important low are good and getting better.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p53162474585&a=1012440604

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:15 PM

      This one needs a little more work…but

      Reply
        Oct 06, 2021 06:22 PM

        More work is always needed at/near a low which is why most traders buy strength and have no interest in bargain hunting near potential lows.

        Reply
          Oct 06, 2021 06:26 PM

          That’s a useable thought. Thanks

          Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:18 PM

    So if I understand this one, it is Juniors against the bigger ones and it is turning toward Juniors. If that is sorta right, then I feel good.

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:20 PM

      GDXJ vs GLD is the juniors versus gold/real money.

      Reply
        Oct 06, 2021 06:22 PM

        Could that mean that it is inflation sensitive or dollar value sensitive (or is that the same thing).

        Reply
          Oct 06, 2021 06:27 PM

          I look at assets priced in gold because I trust that more than assets priced in dollars when the two show opposing messages.

          Reply
            Oct 06, 2021 06:36 PM

            That makes sense as Gold is money and fiat isn’t. Why run the comparison except as a curiosity.

          Oct 06, 2021 06:30 PM

          A print above 120.00 will secure a small double bottom for the XAU…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p32891819881&a=986055675

          Reply
          Oct 06, 2021 06:33 PM

          GDX bottomed at an important 61.8% Fibonacci fan support and is now near light fork resistance.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=22&id=p84491375286&a=938437763

          Reply
          Oct 06, 2021 06:39 PM

          SILJ is 10% below its 2 year MA at the moment. That’s more than a bargain if silver has bottomed.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p66080277750&a=993593368

          Reply
            Oct 06, 2021 06:09 PM

            The Silver miners are definitely at bargain prices lately, but that caveat of “if silver has bottomed” has been what has me concerned lately.

            It’s possible the recent move down to $21.41 in Silver could have tagged support and rebounded, but we’ll need to see that hold and that will just take more time. It appears that the bears were trying to run the stops below that $21.50 level. Fortunately selling got exhausted and Silver rebounded back up above to close above $22 in September for the week, month, and quarter; but it hung on by a thread.

            There are a number of technicians that feel if that $21.50 level gives way on weekly closing basis that a measured moved down to $18.50-$19.00 is still on the table. If that happens (which to be clear, I don’t want to see personally), then the SILJ would just get down to even more of a bargain sale. At that point it would be a “back up the truck” moment, and likely the last great buying opportunity for Silver or the silver miners for many years (possibly even a generational buying opportunity as Christopher Aaron mentioned).

            Until we put in some time and distance from that $21.41 level in Silver, and confirm that was the low, and that a revisit of $18.50-$19.00 is not in the cards, then I’m staying on guard. I’ve still added to silver stocks for the last few weeks, but wake up every day waiting for the other shoe to drop.

            Longer term I still believe the Silver equities are one of the best places to be, to capture out-sized returns as the secular PM bull unfolds, but am keeping a few bullets in the chamber, just in case we see one last capitulation move lower.

    Oct 06, 2021 06:18 PM
    Oct 06, 2021 06:20 PM

    Some hammer thingees reversals and a big yeller one. That is good I think.

    Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:53 PM

    JAGGF had a date with its S1 pivot support and is now an impressive 8 percent above it…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAGGF&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p86063143533&a=991141150

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:44 PM

      +8

      Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:10 PM

      Thanks for the chart. It’s 3 year looks to have a possible move to $3 but a stock like this shouldn’t have corrected this much unless the industry it is in has been forgotten and left for dead.

      https://schrts.co/RevwNPFR

      Reply
        Oct 06, 2021 06:10 PM

        We have to keep in mind that lower prices almost always look possible or even probable at an important low no matter how or when such a low appears. The opposite is true at important highs. So, we tend to hold too little exposure following a major low and too much exposure following a major high.

        Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:16 PM

    It makes sense that the gold miners would turn up after finally reaching the important 200 week MA.
    The HUI’s “respect” for the speed lines has been obvious and the greater than 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is a bonus since many probably turned extra bearish because of it.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08741663623&a=949257852

    Reply
      BDC
      Oct 07, 2021 07:15 AM

      Updated!

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:25 PM

    (MUX) McEwen Mining’s Q3 Production Increases 41% Year Over Year

    Oct. 06, 2021

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3750378-mcewen-minings-q3-production-increases-41-yy

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:16 PM

      It appears to me that MUX may finally be digging out of the massive hole it dug itself into over the last 2 years, and that the worst of their operational hiccups are behind them now.

      Looking forward to McEwen Mining keeping this new trend of increasing year over year quarterly operational performance going as they move forward. I got back into MUX (again, for the 4th time now in the last few years) for their turnaround potential, and this recent report is the kind of data I’ve been looking to see. They aren’t out of the woods yet, but wishing Rob and company well as they start to get their ship turned around.

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:03 PM

    Couldn’t stand it this week—-had to “Nibble” a tad—the candy store is open only on a limited basis yet—they’re having a hard time hiring workers—-it’ll be awhile before they are open a full 8 hours a day but there are encouraging signs that they’re more then half way before the time they can be filled with good product and prices.

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:19 PM

      I think the candy store has one more shot at it and I think it could happen in two weeks or November but not much longer.

      Doc how much percentage are you currently in? Are you fine sharing. It’s always good for someone like yourself or others in here who post often to let the viewers know like I do on a constant basis with clarity and transparency how much you are in? It really backs up your case and views on the market and not just you everyone in here posting constantly let us know how much your in..

      I like to put my money we’re my mouth is like bob says lol..

      Nibbled usas at .85 I think it will be a steak in two years time.
      Glen

      Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:56 PM

      Doc, thanks for the PM candy store update. I’ll be thrilled when the sweet store is back to full employment and open during extended business hours. 😆🍭🍰

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:33 PM

    Glen, certainly. My losses in the PM sector since August of last year are in only the single digits. I am currently at 33%—I also nibbled on some USAS yesterday. There is no hurry to jump in with both feet and I never am 100 percent invested in the space since that is when you get hammered and you have no dry powder to buy the great deals when they become available ( which is going to happen at the end of this year into next year.) Even if it should break out here one could add in a meaningful way and still benefit strongly.

    Reply
      Oct 06, 2021 06:11 PM

      Well played Doc. I still ended up with capital gains for the year despite now having shed about 26 tax loss positions since mid-July, but my account is down over 1/4 from the all time high in early June.

      I’ve peeled off profits and some losses in most other commodity stocks and other sectors like Copper, Lithium, Palladium/Platinum, battery manufacturers, clean energy companies, cryptos, cannabis, psychedelic research, directional market trades, and misc positions over the course of the year and become more and more concentrated in PM miners. At this point I’m about 97% fully deployed in my trading account, including a few new funds moved over from deep savings to start accumulating back the Uranium positions I had sold mostly out of during the last big surge in Sept. I had initially used those Uranium profits to scale further into PM stocks when we saw them fall out of bed a few weeks back.

      Of the remaining 3% cash I’m looking to have it deployed on any more extreme weakness in either the PMs or U stocks, but want to keep it as dry powder in case we see any gut wrenching panic sells as the final bullets in the chamber.

      Reply
    Oct 06, 2021 06:39 PM

    All traders are special needs individuals. I mean seriously, you get up (me) early in the morning to log-on and trade. Only to lose the first few trades ‘right off the bat’!
    Most people get up in the morning “guaranteed” to make money when they work.
    Yup, special needs..

    Reply
    BDC
    Oct 06, 2021 06:32 PM

    Price Quality: https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    PMs: Rearranged. Royals now bottom two.
    Useful, but timing can be different.
    Their turn was four days later!

    Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:01 AM

    Shades of December 2015 Cometh

    David Brady – Sprott Money – Sept 30, 2021

    “Everything is lining up for a sustainable low in precious metal and miners: technicals, sentiment, positioning, Fibonacci levels, and inter-market analysis. A fundamental catalyst for the start of the coming rally would be ideal but not required. Gold tends to anticipate such a catalyst anyway, as it did in 2008 and on several other occasions. This week, courtesy of my FIPEST xM process, I am going to focus on the various signals I am watching to tell us the bottom is in and a massive new rally to highs exceeding those in 2020 has begun.”

    https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Shades-of-December-2015-Cometh-David-Brady-September-30-2021

    Reply
    BDC
    Oct 07, 2021 07:05 AM

    PMs Saturating North. Lagging .XAU may mean topping no sooner than Monday/Tuesday for this run.

    Reply

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