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US Dollar outlook considering a wide range of drivers

Cory댊
October 7, 2021

Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report joins us to focus on the US Dollar uptrend in place since June. Just how high can the Dollar go and what’s driving this move? It’s not as simple as you think.

Click here to visit Craig’s site TF Metals Report.

Discussion
77 Comments
      Oct 07, 2021 07:59 PM

      It is definitely going to be interesting to see if the US Dollar does breakout here, or if it recoils back down and stays in it’s trading range.

      Reply
        BDC
        Oct 08, 2021 08:28 AM

        Being determined. Slammed this morning (Friday) … but recovering.
        Gold is actually doing well against this stronger than expected Dollar.

        Reply
    BDC
    Oct 07, 2021 07:55 PM

    Price Quality: https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    PMs: Dollar, NFP, and those devilish details.
    Oil-za-Poppin’! Widow-maker makin’?
    Uranium: Stop! Railroad tracks!

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:13 AM

      Yes, Oil has definitely been popping, along with the “widow maker” Nat Gas as you point out.

      Thanks BDC.

      Reply
        BDC
        Oct 08, 2021 08:08 AM

        A second Dynamic Power move by the sector! Monday/Tuesday earliest for Saturation.
        Another rearrangement is necessary. FNV and NEM to go below SIL and SILJ for clarity.

        Reply
          BDC
          Oct 08, 2021 08:16 AM

          Errata: “GOLD and NEM”

          Reply
            BDC
            Oct 08, 2021 08:15 PM

            Final: Eliminated GOLD, NEM, FNV, WPM.
            Per John Murphy & John Bollinger: KISS !!!

    Oct 07, 2021 07:29 PM

    Craig’s great work at TMF & SprottMoney is appreciated, and I hear his frustration over the last few years. Heck, I share it. But where I think the gold & silver community is missing it, is that most of the civilized investment world wants things to keep working as they used to, until they don’t. If you’re making money buying the DXY or shorting silver, you put up with (or outright ignore) the impending boom in commodities. You ignore $29 trillion of debt. You ignore printing dollars, because it isn’t affecting your strategy right now. These folks will keep investing until they are forced to change or adapt.

    So yes it’s frustrating, but it’s also providing another (possibly final) opportunity to acquire miners & metal assets at much cheaper prices than even just a few months ago. What an opportunity. I’m impatient too, but I’m not really complaining that much.

    I am personally taking the inflation view. Deflation has historically hit as debt grew, as people didn’t want to keep spending. That might eventually happen, but right now, the debt is not slowing money velocity. We are caught in a whirl-wind of print -> spend -> print more -> spend more.

    Reply
      Oct 07, 2021 07:32 PM

      Great points John R. and well-stated.

      Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:32 PM

    Here’s another few lines you can draw. Anyone can do this. Open a monthly chart of the Dow, S&P, NAS, doesn’t really matter. Look back 20 years to 2000 or so. Look at the slope in index price from 2000-2009, then 2009-2020, then 2020-2021.

    What caused these ever-increasing slopes? What do you think is coming next? Especially if the Fed really stops buying (gulp) $120 billion of public and private debt? Every MONTH? Who is going to step-in and buy that volume of debt, and at what price, if any?

    Reply
      Oct 07, 2021 07:17 PM

      Good evening ker family,

      We are going to have many new bloggers and posters claiming to know what’s going on in the miners. Really nothing has changed they will keep playing the guessing game. Go back to glens call free by the way two weeks ago when I added great bear and USA and added more USA at its ultimate low. I was questioned on regards to jurisdiction and closures etc etc! I still put my money we’re my mouth was and I was first on this site. Is there anyone out there reading glens calls? Because I find it really disrespectful that others come after my call and get praise while I mentioned things way before. If that’s the case again I can gladly go silent.

      For the ones who follow glens calls let me know you care I bust my ass with the calls and I have once again nailed bottoms and now suddenly e Rhine harping about USA and near lol.

      I have respect for others. It I have mentioned that the best of the best callers has always been here. Many times Cory asked me to get I terbjews and I gladly say no thank you. But at the very least many of you who don’t like that I called lower and now call higher at least give a thumbs up.

      I’ve said this once and I will say it again, the difference between glen and all the shit callers is I tell you in real terms and I’m always first to move before any! My best friend Jerry Is my witness and knows I’m a good guy..

      Glen

      Reply
        Oct 07, 2021 07:21 PM

        Also Docs calls have been bang on but I’m right up his butt :). Friendly

        I think I’m going to come out of it better then him in regards to the bottom. I’m more aggressive just so you know. I have a lot of respect for Doc and his strategy..

        Glen

        Reply
        Oct 07, 2021 07:22 PM

        Doc

        If manybmistens to and myself would have saved you so much dollars while many listened to dreams and charts and not the mo they chart. You deserve to be bleeding if you disrespected glen or doc

        Life teaches you hard lessons as some pundits in here have said..

        Glen

        Reply
        Oct 07, 2021 07:23 PM

        The bears have left recently and I think there is good reason!

        Reply
          Oct 07, 2021 07:38 PM

          Good thoughts Glenfidish and thanks for sharing your insights here.

          Yes, the bears are always emboldened during corrective moves, and then go quiet when the miners rally. Markets move in both directions, so it is fine to play things from either the long or short side, and have a thesis for a corrective move or impulse leg higher.

          Most of the occasionally vocal “bears,” that show up here only sporadically on deep red days to insult investors, are either emotionally or psychically scarred bagholders of yesteryear, (that personally screwed up and now hate the sector instead of taking personal accountability for their own bad trading), or they are just here to troll the site. I pay them little attention.

          These bear-trolls were totally MIA in 2019 and 2020 when the PM sector was surging higher which is just like them. As has been noted a few times 2-3 months back the increasing bear troll ratio on the site this summer was a solid contrarian indicator that we were getting closer to a bottoming and basing period. It happens every time (late 2015, Fall 2018, the 2020 pandemic crash, and the summer doldrums we just made it through).

          Reply
        Ann
        Oct 08, 2021 08:53 PM

        👍👍

        Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:35 PM

    Americans love fads and this pandemic has kept them away from the enjoyment of things they like. Remember the hoola hoop craze, or miniature golf courses, our society needs to get back to the ridiculous so we can enjoy life again. I am fed up with the way science has managed our society for the last year and a half, enough is enough. DT

    Reply
      Oct 07, 2021 07:47 PM

      Not real science, just spin and interpretation of same by politicians, which someone on this board has called: “SCIENTIFICALLY ILLITERATE MORONS.”

      Reply
      Oct 07, 2021 07:29 PM

      I’ve always wanted to become a Professional “PLINKO” Player, Oh Yeah!

      Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:04 PM

    Like so many other charts, this weekly XAU chart perfectly shows the significance of the current low for the sector. For those who can’t view the entire 12+ years, that speed line support is based on the December 2010 all-time high and the January 2016 bear market low.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=12&mn=11&dy=0&id=p71130713790&a=1039474988

    Reply
    cfs
    Oct 07, 2021 07:28 PM
    Oct 07, 2021 07:27 PM

    (ITRG) Integra Resources: A Positive Surprise

    Oct. 06, 2021 – Peter Arendas – Seeking Alpha

    – Integra Resources announced that the scope of the DeLamar project PFS will increase.
    The average annual production should increase by 50%, to approximately 180,000-190,000 toz of gold equivalent.
    – The initial CAPEX will increase too, but it is possible to expect that the positive impact of increased production rates will prevail.
    – The PFS, as well as updated resource estimate, are expected in late Q4.
    – The drilling at Florida Mountain progresses well, expanding the potential of developing a high-grade underground mining operation.

    https://tinyurl.com/28hbm24n

    Reply
      BDC
      Oct 08, 2021 08:01 AM

      Thank you for the synopsis. Seeking Alpha restricts after a few usages.

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:23 AM

        Sure thing BDC. I wasn’t aware Seeking Alpha restricted their articles after a few page views, but I signed up as a free member years ago. I knew that they have a premium subscription with a paywall on those articles, but most of what I post are just the free articles I get alerts to in my email inbox.

        Yeah, I like to put a brief synopsis of the key takeaway on some articles, because many people are lazy and won’t go click the link, but will read the quick blurb, and other times the articles are many pages long, and I’ll just post a passage that caught my attention and seems relevant to share with the KER crew. Cheers!

        Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:59 PM

    (EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Produces 1,305,399 oz Silver and 10,541 oz Gold for 2.1 Million oz Silver Equivalents in Q3, 2021; 2021 Consolidated Production Guidance Raised to 7.7 – 8.0 Million oz Silver Equivalents

    Oct 7, 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/endeavour-silver-produces-1305399-oz-silver-and-10541

    Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:05 PM

    (SMTS) (SMT) Sierra Metals Completes Strategic Review Process, Initiates Annual Base Dividend of US$0.03 Per Share and Appoints Two New Directors to Its Board

    Oct 7, 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/sierra-metals-completes-strategic-review-process-initiates

    Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:08 PM

    (AGI) Alamos Gold: A Dirt-Cheap Valuation For This Organic Growth Story

    Oct. 05, 2021 – T.D. – Seeking Alpha

    https://tinyurl.com/2fyh6sud

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:40 AM

      I had been watching AGI and saw Taylor Dart’s article on SA.

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:26 AM

        I’m a fan of the work that AGI has been doing to expand their Island Gold property, that they picked off by taking over Richmont a few years back. It’s right next to Argonaut’s massive Magino deposit as well. That Island Gold project is a monster in the making, and they’ve had a lot of success in exploration on it lately. The whole PM space is oversold at present, but I don’t think many realize what a nice growth profile Alamos Gold has as a solid mid-tier producer.

        Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:11 PM

    Precious Metals Royalty And Streaming Companies: The September Report

    Oct. 05, 2021 – Peter Arendas – Seeking Alpha

    https://tinyurl.com/4ucwbjbz

    Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:14 PM

    Today’s Chart: This Gold Bull Market Has Years To Run

    Oct. 05, 2021 – John Rubino – Seeking Alpha

    “The recent back-and-forth precious metals action has left a lot of people frustrated with both the metal and the “permabulls” in this space. Fair enough. Gold has almost doubled from its 2015 low, but it’s done so in a really boring way, which is the ultimate crime in the blow-off stage of a financial bubble when so many other things are going parabolic.”

    “But history says that the real action is still to come. The following chart shows the past century’s gold bull markets, most of which* make the current bull market look like a virtual newborn…”

    https://tinyurl.com/wf3f9b94

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:55 AM

      Key…. Gold has almost doubled from its 2015 low,…. slow as ye go ,,, about a 9% return yoy… better than bonds… 🙂

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:27 AM

        Agreed OOTB. Not too shabby, despite all the negative sentiment.

        Reply
    Oct 07, 2021 07:53 PM

    Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?

    Jesse Felder – October 6, 2021

    “Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street.”

    “With inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices and the dollar now point to. Considering valuations are more extreme than ever before and investors are also more highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.”

    https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/06/is-the-stock-market-starting-to-discount-an-earnings-recession/

    Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:34 AM

    Jobs # 194,000 lower than expected.

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:38 AM

      Metals futures green

      Reply
    BDC
    Oct 08, 2021 08:40 AM

    Noted on other thread: https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar
    NFP Bust!

    Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:57 AM

    Freaky Friday again…….. this week… a little change to the good side… we deserve it.. 🙂

    Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:11 AM

    Platinum and Palladium …… up nicely……. humm….

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:45 AM

      As we’ve discussed a few times, Platinum likely still has a lot of movement to the upside to start regaining it’s historical premium to Gold and Palladium. If we could get a little more life in the Gold and Silver sector, then I’d trim off a few profits and rotate them into more PGM stocks.

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:13 PM

        Not a bad suggestion…. a little rotation for profits …

        Reply
          Oct 08, 2021 08:22 PM

          Good grief……… palladium up…. $119….

          Reply
            Oct 08, 2021 08:23 PM

            Gold needs to take a q……

            Oct 08, 2021 08:11 PM

            Yeah, Palladium has been wild this year.

    Oct 08, 2021 08:53 AM

    Enjoyed the discussion with Mr Hemke. Over and over I hear how the financial world is upside down and makes no sense.
    May I suggest reading $uperhubs, How the Financial Elite $ Their Networks Rule Our World by Sandra Navadi.
    The best analogy I can come up with is Boiling Frogs.
    I have given this much thought and I have reduced it down to financial consciousness. As was mentioned the financial consciousness of the public must change for things to be different.
    I always go back to the book,”The Man Who Solved The Markets” by Gregory Zuckerman.
    Some people have had these markets figured out for a very long time. Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies has returned average returns of 66% since 1988. I think he has it figured out.

    Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:19 AM

        Is this the same guy JOHN.?
        Jim Simons Makes Billions While Renaissance Investors Fume at Losses
        By Hema Parmar and Katherine Burton
        February 10, 2021, 11:00 AM EST

        Reply
          Oct 08, 2021 08:26 AM

          If so., looks like the guy is retiring with a good track record….

          Reply
            Oct 08, 2021 08:36 AM

            Hi Jerry:
            Mr Simons isn’t the CEO anymore. He walked with the cash long ago.
            Renaissance was interesting that the largest contributors from both Hilary and D Trump’s election came from this fund.Simons for Hillary and his CEO for Trump.

            Oct 08, 2021 08:47 AM

            Hello John… thanks for the reply….
            Looks like the guy did a fantastic job… with total returns over a number of years…

      Oct 08, 2021 08:47 AM

      Thanks for that feedback and those book suggestions John K.

      Yes, the financial world is upside down, and as you suggest, it is like boiling frogs gradually and most don’t notice as it becomes the “new normal.”

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:17 PM

        I scanned the books, and they do look interesting….
        “Jim , says. in one of the books… “find something you like and do it”…. which is what I have said to my kids from day one… Life is short… plenty of opportunities out there, .. a job is too much work… lol

        Reply
          Oct 08, 2021 08:10 PM

          That is sage advice OOTB “find something you like and do it”.

          I think I’ve finally done that working here at the KER. 😉

          Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:23 AM

    Emerita: Doc and David Gower say Anznalcollar Administrative Court award to Emerita is coming sooner than expected. Should bump price again. Interview at ceo.ca Doc Jones this AM

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:53 AM

      EMOTF doing another run like yesterday…

      Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:48 AM

      Nice David. Yes, if Anznalcollar goes to Emerita as they believe will happen, then that is a huge boon for EMO and shareholders, as it is one of the best undeveloped Zinc projects on the planet, and that would give Emerita 2 world class projects under one roof.

      Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:35 PM

      I vote for ATH but those pesky day traders may run away at close for the 3 day Canadian weekend. No complaints from me.

      Reply
        Oct 08, 2021 08:29 PM

        I’ll confess to being one of those pesky short-term traders. I sold out near the close of the day in my Emerita as I was up 50% in 4 days, and wanted to book the win.

        My plan is to buy back in if we see a corrective move earlier next week of say 10-15%.

        I risk getting left behind again if it just keeps blasting higher, but that was a solid swing-trade any way one slices it, and in these kind of markets I want to book the wins when they appear.

        Reply
          Oct 08, 2021 08:34 PM

          I trimmed a bit of my gains in VOX today (which was up 16% on the day) and combined those profits with the ones from Emerita, and used it buy back a tax loss position I’d sold in Aris Gold earlier in the summer.

          Overall my number of positions has grown again this week doing some horse trading, and I added back even more to my Uranium positions taking them up to 60% positions now.

          Reply
          Oct 08, 2021 08:46 PM

          Today was the best $ performance of a single stock ever but with fewer shares I had a better day once with GBR. This was the best single week ever even with Monday a loss. Based on all that I expect to get kicked in the teeth in the near future as miners should not ever be treated well. Read that in some article about free and fair markets. I feel very lucky to have had this week.

          Reply
            Oct 08, 2021 08:07 PM

            Congratulations David, and yes this was a much better week in the PM miners for a change. My only regret today was not having gone in more aggressively on Emerita, but I was planning on scaling in over 2-4 tranches. Still, good on you man for having a healthy position in place to capture the move.

          Oct 08, 2021 08:52 PM

          Ex:
          Great trade as 50% is big for a week. You can’t be left behind as this stock, I think, has a lot of room to go. Think Great Bear and how it performed/still performs. Both are going to have large 43-101s. … or whatever that # for resource estimate is. You ran the table at the exact right week.

          Reply
            Oct 08, 2021 08:09 PM

            Thanks David. Yeah, I like Doc Jones premise that Emerita is the Great Bear of polymetallic deposits. Both still have a lot of upside in front of them. I was actually enjoying seeing the move higher Great Bear made this week as well. Those guys are hitting it out of the park with all their hundreds of solid drill results. It’s going to be exciting to see where their maiden resource estimate comes in next year.

    BDC
    Oct 08, 2021 08:23 PM

    Reasonable EMOTF buy (back): 1.36.

    Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:36 PM

    Here’s the kicker in Emotf. The Anznalcollar resource is not officially part of the Emerita resource until the Administrative Court issues the order. When that happens, the resource doubles and the known/previously known/ confirmationally known resources increase in a few seconds. That the risk at the moment. It can change much faster than a greenfields exploration project.

    Reply
      BDC
      Oct 08, 2021 08:38 PM

      When is the order issued?

      Reply
    Oct 08, 2021 08:42 PM

    As in all Courts, when they want to issue the order. It has been a 7 year Court case in Sourhern Spain.It started
    With tender offers over the Anznalcollar property that gad been shut down due to a tailings holding area collapse. The mine was shut down, the tailings problem was addressed and bids for reopening solicited. Emerita bid against a local/Grupo Mexico group and the Bad guys got the mine. Both a criminal and Administrative Case was initiated and under the criminal cases 16 people including politicians and regulators have been determined under their system, through their appeals system to have committed criminal acts. But, under their system they now either go to trial or plea, but since they have been through these 3 levels of Courts on Appeal, they are at the begging point.
    On the Administrative side, it is civil, but the criminals having done bad acts…their tender offer us disqualified by law, which leaves Emerita the only valid tender order…but they need the order. So Answer: could be anytime the Court dies it including any minute to whenever the Court does it. So it is like anywhere else…hey look the Court issued the Order. So, when overnight the order will appear, there is always the chance that Emerita will double known resource. Doubling known resource should be met with a rerate…but since algos can’t read they could always sell the news like the criminals the algos are. Hipe that helps.

    Reply
      Oct 08, 2021 08:46 PM

      Sorry…cooking steaks on the grill and using the phone. The window closes down and can’t look back without risking it disappear. Typos …mostly can figured out.

      Reply
        BDC
        Oct 08, 2021 08:19 PM

        Thanks for the in-depth. My buy (.83) was too low. Good luck to holders.

        Reply

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