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Craig Hemke – Assuming the Fed starts tapering next week, what that means for PMs

Cory댊
October 29, 2021

Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report joins us to look ahead to the Fed meeting next week and the assumed start of a tapper. We discuss if the tapper is truly priced in and what market moves will be the most important to watch, including the effect of any rate hikes next year, or potential headwinds for the general markets.

 

 

 

Click here to visit Craig’s site- TF Metals Report.

Discussion
50 Comments
    BDC
    Oct 29, 2021 29:46 AM

    SPQ: https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    PMs bottoming into FOMC Week.
    (NY Time 20211029.1345)

    Oct 29, 2021 29:01 AM

    Canadian Mining Firm Iamgold Convoy Attacked In West Africa……..
    Will be a problem this decade me thinks in various jurisdictions…….
    Spread our risks?

      Joe
      Oct 29, 2021 29:12 AM

      Try eliminating your risk and dump all your PM related stocks.
      As it was clearly illustrated by Newmont’s HORRIBLE earnings report, costs are going up, margins are shrinking and the price of PMs is clearly in a downtrend.
      PM shares are toxic waste, garbage dumps.
      The only people making money in the PM space are the executives running the companies and newsletter writers pumping stocks in order to sell subscriptions. You pay for their lifestyle while you lose money on the stocks.

      Oct 29, 2021 29:45 AM

      Thomas & I had mentioned this issue before (when IAMGOLD’s convey was attacked last time about 2 months ago), that there was serious jurisdiction risk where IAMGold was mining in northern Burkina Faso along that border of Niger.
      .
      It was dismissed on here as “blah…blah…blah…” by some, but clearly it isn’t nonconsequential and IS a definite area of concern moving forward.
      .
      With PLENTY of other gold producers to choose from, then I don’t see the point in taking the risk of that primary mine having more issues from IAG/IMG, as there are many other options to capture the move higher in the PMs that aren’t having their convoys attacked by extremists.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:49 AM

        Canadian Mining Firm IAMGOLD Convoy Attacked In Burkina Faso, Several Missing
        .
        Reuters – Oct. 29, 2021
        .
        “The vehicles carrying Iamgold employees came under attack on the road between Dori and Essakane, where the company has its biggest operating mine. Another Iamgold convoy was attacked on its way to Essakane in September, wounding one police officer and causing the company to temporarily suspend convoys.”
        .
        https://www.reuters.com/world/canadian-mining-firm-iamgold-convoy-attacked-burkina-faso-several-missing-2021-10-29/

          Oct 29, 2021 29:04 PM

          To be clear, most of central and southern Burkina Faso is still fine for Gold operations, and that is where most of the action is anyway, but personally I’m not going anywhere near companies operating in the northern part of Burkina Faso, and I’m not a risk adverse person. I’ve invested in B.F. a number of times over the year years with Gryphon, True Gold, Terranga, Savary, Sarama, and Roxgold (all of those taken over for nice wins since then except Sarama). Currently my only exposure to Burkina Faso is through Thor Explorations, who has a 3rd project there, but their 2 main projects are in Nigeria and Senegal, which are pretty good jurisdictions for West Africa.

            Oct 29, 2021 29:55 PM

            Politics M.I.A. ? Clicking on the navigation bars and the politics tab is inoperable. It’s a “”no-go””.

            As a side note, West Africa is exceptionally high risk jurisdiction due to all the immeasurable changes that are transpiring right now in this world for the worst. That doesn’t bode well for this area of the world for mining companies. It’s not to be easily dismissed as things deteriorate because it’s not hard to envision those assets being seized even by those who officially govern those areas of the world.

            However, according to some it’s not a problem and unfortunately it could represent significant financial losses for those that are holding those shares in mining companies. Australia is not looking too pretty either.

            In addition to everything else gold is looking insanely bullish for next year. We’re not getting any further correction however we’re not entering significant gains either and that’s extremely bullish for next year. 🤞 We need another four or five weeks of this lackluster market behavior and we are ready for liftoff. Quite possibly starting in December and then we’ll get the explosion into next year 🚀🚀🚀⬆️

            Ha Ha Joe, take note buddy !!!

            Oct 29, 2021 29:06 PM

            Hi Holy Grail. The politics tab at the top is working on my end on both a computer and smart phone.
            .
            Here’s a link directly to that politics page though if this helps:
            .
            http://www.kereport.com/politics/

            Oct 29, 2021 29:23 PM

            Thanks for the link it works. I never attempted to use another device or computer. I just tried it on my other smartphone and it works although strangely enough all the other tabs worked on my other smartphone besides the politics tab.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:41 PM

        Ex, I held IAG and added at the lows (when Glen was urging everyone to) and sold yesterday after its’ nice move. That’ll be one less stock as we move lower again. I’ll probably purchase the same number of shares I sold when it bottoms out again. NEM and CDE didn’t respond well to their quarterly reports and probably are headed lower—that doesn’t bode well for the whole sector.

          Oct 29, 2021 29:01 PM

          Hey Doc – Yeah, it had a nice bounce recently, but then again, so did most of the gold producers over the last month. Operationally IAG has done well, so it isn’t that, but personally I don’t want to take a jurisdiction risk in that part of Burkina Faso, and this is now the second time their convoy of employees has been attacked there just in the last 2 months. Not interested, when there are so many other gold producers to choose from.
          .
          Yeah and Newmont and Coeur didn’t wow the markets with their Q3 operational results as you mentioned, and there were a few others that only had muted results this week on their earnings, but overall the gold and silver producers have much healthier balance sheets, less debt, lower costs, and are better run than in the last cycle.
          .
          Even if we do have that slide lower in the PMs that you are anticipating, I’m still expecting a much better year in 2022, and when more generalists and more analysts start covering the PM sector again, it should look pretty attractive to compared to many other sectors that are far more bloated and frothy in their valuations in the more traditional markets.

    Oct 29, 2021 29:21 AM

    fund buying begins next week…maybe end of the day buy GDX today but probably wait till Monday morning to decide because GDX has major support, even if just a bounce at the TAS top(blue dash)….near 31.50….also typically gdx will bounce, after wash out, when the general equity follows through monday also for fund buying markup……but think ultimately in next several weeks the gdx does test the TAS lower support where buyers are at….that price is 30.16 and would produce a head and shoulder pattern unfortunately w a lower Right shoulder, not ideal…glta

    https://tos.mx/sOqvUAJ

      Oct 29, 2021 29:08 PM

      thanks Larry, let’s see what happens

    Oct 29, 2021 29:52 AM

    Okay, an environmentalist was asked the question by Amanda Lang on BNN, “Is the fact that oil companies are making good profits disheartening to environmentalists as the companies will have robust finances?” (Paraphrased) The lady answered by saying that this will give the companies more money to invest in renewables. Does she not understand capitalism? You make and deliver what sells, not what Faeries and Unicorns want you to sell, friggin DUH!

      Oct 29, 2021 29:59 AM

      Haha! Agreed Dan. We live in an upside down world at times, where the markets are showing where the money is going, and it is often different than where politicians and lobbyist groups want things to go in their narrative. Just look at the insane price move higher in Coal for example, as the most hated, and yes, dirtiest of the energy inputs. Global populations have a huge appetite for more energy, and despite their virtue signaling with electric vehicles, they are still mostly powering them up on Coal, Nat Gas, and Nuclear plants to create the electricity for them… with only a small (but growing) percentage coming from renewables.
      .
      However, there is a big move, mostly by US Oil & Gas companies to expand into the growing renewables sector, so many are investing their revenues into that as the cheese begins to move, and we are hearing there is a big underinvestment in new Oil & Gas projects in the U.S. What that means is that other countries will take advantage of the higher Oil and Nat Gas prices and the US has squandered it’s potential to be an energy exporter and be 100% energy independent. The Biden administration blocking the Keystone Pipeline right out of the gates was one of the biggest bone-headed moves in the energy sector all year long and is disgraceful.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:00 PM

        I’m working on editing a conversation we just had on the Energy Sector with Sean Brodrick where we cover the whole space from Oil & Nat Gas to Solar, Wind, Hydro and then Nuclear. Stay tuned shortly…

      Oct 29, 2021 29:59 PM

      All that’s left to do for Canada’s O&G sector is to flush out the pipes and board the windows.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp1fZS_HnSk

    Oct 29, 2021 29:11 PM

    IPT is up 13.5% after hitting it 38.2 Fib retracement today and 60% since bottoming in August.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=22&id=p50041138639&a=993199613

      Oct 29, 2021 29:18 PM

      Loving it. Go IPT!

      Oct 29, 2021 29:27 PM

      IPT, a producer with nice exploration upside. Happy to have it.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:46 PM

        It’s also the purest silver play out there with 93% of revenue coming from silver.

    Oct 29, 2021 29:20 PM

    I was a seller this morning (not my TSX-V shares) but have already reversed some of that selling. I now have more Hecla than I did yesterday. If the pivot at 5.76 doesn’t hold, there’s the 20 day MA and 50% retracement at 5.66.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=18&id=p61837780260

    Oct 29, 2021 29:44 PM

    Here’s an argument for a low right here, right now. The lower blue line support is a duplicate/parallel line of that (potential) H&S neckline and placed at the left shoulder low. (The H&S pattern is an extra bullish one with that high right shoulder and symmetry so far.)
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62112628458&a=982826709

    Oct 29, 2021 29:48 PM

    The Australian dollar has made a higher high for each of the last 5 weeks and is set for many more.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAD&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p03890408640&a=1013957658

      Oct 29, 2021 29:09 PM

      Also, happy to have lots of AUD.

    Oct 29, 2021 29:01 PM

    HEY GLEN…………….. Just beat on the bar a little harder, on the political section tab……. we are all here… lol

      Oct 29, 2021 29:18 PM

      sorry……… addressed to the wrong person…. Just forget the note Glen… 🙂

    Oct 29, 2021 29:33 PM
    Oct 29, 2021 29:34 PM
    Oct 29, 2021 29:37 PM

    IPT’s first weekly close above all of its weekly EMAs since the first week of January and first close above 600 week (roughly 12 year) EMA since June…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p56633507458

      Oct 29, 2021 29:38 PM

      Looking at profile of IPT, they’ve been in business for 35 years. Took them that long to get to where they are.
      PGE is a much younger company with some outstanding results…but They may make more discoveries, they may get bought out, they may build a company, who knows. At this stage I’m more confident owning IPT than a company like PGE.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:15 PM

        I’m comfortable owning both IPT and PGE, but they are at different stages & commodities focus(with Impact being a smaller growth-oriented silver producer and Group Ten being an advanced Palladium/Nickel/Copper/Platinum/Cobalt/Rhodium explorer), different jurisdictions, etc…
        .
        Both companies have very attractive exploration potential for bonanza grade discoveries though, so they both could surprise to the upside.

    Oct 29, 2021 29:59 PM

    GDX:GLD made it to the falling 50 week MA before pulling back. All good…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p05436214455&a=1029021344

    Oct 29, 2021 29:05 PM

    SILJ:GDX has pulled back as much as 6% after rising more than 18% in less than a month. This risk-on indicator remains bullish and managed a gain of 1.35% this week despite today’s action. Its first weekly MACD buy signal in 17 months is probably coming next week.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p72177005410&a=1001430508

      Oct 29, 2021 29:09 PM

      I’ve learned the hard way that there is no such thing as over communicating around here so I want to make it clear that I don’t buy weekly MACD buy signals. If I did, I would use different parameters than the default 12,26,9.

        Oct 29, 2021 29:26 PM

        Thanks for sharing all those charts Matthew, and personally I see the MACD (especially with the default parameters) as more of a lagging and confirming indicator, a bit more after the turn has already happened. Personally I often look to see a daily Slow Stochastics buy first (in concert with other pricing data), and have more conviction after it is confirmed by the MACD, TRIX, and True Strength Index after the fact.
        .
        On that chart the golden cross you noted was interesting as the next few candles dove deeper, but eventually pulled back up higher to catch up with the developing more bullish set up in the SILJ:GDX ratio.

          Oct 29, 2021 29:40 PM

          Yes, the MACD lags price but can have plenty of value in many cases. Many securities/instruments throw off very few “fake outs” with their weekly MACDs and SILJ:GDX is one of them. So is IPT and it has been on its best looking weekly MACD buy signal in years for 3 weeks.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p39473909744

            Oct 29, 2021 29:47 PM

            Good point Matthew. Most of the MACD buy/sell signals usually have filtered out much of the noise by then and have less fakeouts and are a good barometer for confirming sea changes.
            .
            IPT is a heavier weighting for me in the Silver stocks and had added more tranches on Aug. 23, Aug. 31, and Sept 16th, which has worked out pretty well thus far.

            Oct 29, 2021 29:03 PM

            The 8,17,9 MACD is an example of one that I would be much more likely to use at major lows. While we’re still waiting for the 12,26,9 to buy, the 8,17,9 bought last week just as the 200 week MA was taken back. It worked at the covid crash low as well. The default didn’t deliver until price was 18% higher.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p91311355978&a=1001430508

          Oct 29, 2021 29:48 PM

          I forgot to point out that both golden crosses and death crosses often result in/coincide with counterintuitive short term moves. It doesn’t matter if they are on the daily chart or the weekly.
          For example:
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&st=2016-11-22&en=2019-11-16&id=p37876215249&a=1052633866

            Oct 29, 2021 29:21 PM

            That’s pretty interesting on the golden/death crosses having short-term counterintuitive moves before the trend takes hold. I’ve not noticed that before but will keep that under consideration moving forward when I see that kind of action on the crosses on the daily ir weekly charts. Thanks.

      Oct 29, 2021 29:07 PM

      The daily chart shows that SILG:GDX topped where it did because it ran into parallel channel resistance. That RSI breakout joins many other factors in suggesting that the channel will fall to the bulls in the not-too-distant future.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p36729333128&a=961488305

    Oct 29, 2021 29:30 PM

    Silver gained about 16% since bottoming and is now 4% off its high of one week ago. There’s nothing negative about this pullback so far and it did manage to finish 2 cents above the KAMA. The bears will have nothing left after it takes out that fork resistance decisively on a closing basis. That resistance looks like 25.33 on Monday so exceeding that level by 5 to 10 cents should do it. Conservative types could wait for a close above the speed line (green) which will be about 25.70 next Friday.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p54830777451&a=937970450

    Oct 29, 2021 29:47 PM

    The XAU bottomed at 2 forks and a speed line as i pointed out when it mattered but today’s action delayed its weekly MACD buy signal…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p42473261664&a=1012440604

    Ann
    Oct 29, 2021 29:10 PM

    Hi Matthew.. I haven’t heard much talk about Bayshore silver lately… Is BHS…one you like…or own.TIA.

    Ann
    Oct 29, 2021 29:35 PM

    Also. Huge volume in SVE. Today .. not sure why