Jordan Roy-Byrne – When Will The Correction In PMs Bottom? Look At A Couple Other Markets

May 4, 2022

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to discuss the continued correction in precious metal, and commodities generally, and when he thinks the correction will reverse. It’s important to look to other, larger markets to get a heads up on when sentiment is shifting which could lead to a bounce in the PMs. We discuss the US markets and bonds as key sectors to watch.




Click here to visit Jordan’s site and keep up to date on what he’s watching on the charts.


    May 04, 2022 04:07 PM

    I’ve been saying it here for the last decade, most people don’t realize that interest rates and gold rise together and that the real interest rate is so negative that multiple .5% hikes are nothing to fear.

    In January 1973, gold traded between 63.90 and 66.08 and the Fed funds rate was raised to 6% (from 5.75%). By August of that year, there were 7 more increases taking the Fed funds rate to 11% and gold traded between 94 and 117.50 after hitting 127 in July. So, gold soared nearly 100% in 6 months while the Fed funds rate did the same. When gold hit 190.50 in November 1974, the Fed funds rate was at 13% and had been for 4 months.
    Gold peaked at 195.25 in December 1974 and then fell 47% over the next 20 months as the Fed funds rate fell to 4.75%. From there, gold launched a 743% move up in 41 months while rates were hiked relentlessly every step of the way (something like 20 hikes I believe and 9 in 1978 alone).

    There were 17 rate hikes between mid-2004 and mid-2006 yet gold went from under 400 to over 700 at the same time.

    Rising interest rates amount to evidence of inflation and not an attempt to “fight” it as the con artists and their media want you to believe. Trusting the central bankers and their Keynesian economists is akin to trusting their censoring servant media and the lies pushed about Russia/Ukraine, C-19, the “vaccines”, and even the “food pyramid” for that matter. The list of outright lies that the masses believe is almost endless.

      May 04, 2022 04:50 PM

      Good narrative Matthew & specific. I know, I was living in Houston at the time, and with Disco & all, I bought gold jewelry that very Aug ‘76 @ $110/oz ( of course the markup in jewelry was exorbitant regardless).

        May 04, 2022 04:05 PM

        I think it was 1977-78 that Bette Midler demanded to be paid in South African Krugerrands for her European tour and I doubt very much that she came up with the idea by herself!

      May 04, 2022 04:53 PM

      Great Comment………….Matthew

        May 04, 2022 04:36 PM

        Agreed. Matthew good historical info on interest rates and gold, and the ability to trend higher together. We’ve mentioned a few times on the show that gold has traveled higher in past rate hiking cycles and a number of guests like Jordan, Dave Erfle, Brien Lundin, and Craig Hemke have also made that point…. not just about rate hiking cycles generally being a boon for gold, but also that even the Fed hiked using 100 basis point hikes for 4 or 5 meetings then we’d still have very negative inflation-adjusted real rates. I agree that hiking the Fed funds rate to 2.75% (which is their stated goal) won’t do much to change the negative real rates. They are likely hoping for a downtrend in CPI numbers due to the year over year base effect, so they can claim this was due to their policies working, which won’t be the case either, but that is likely the way the Fed governors will spin things.

    May 04, 2022 04:08 PM
    May 04, 2022 04:33 PM

    ELRRF — re-entered 1st of 3 – $1300 tranches @ $3.20, next @ $3.00 & $2.80

      May 04, 2022 04:41 PM

      Good trading to you Marty. Yeah, I considered jumping in Eloro twice today but held off, concerned it could still possibly correct a bit more, but it is starting to look more compelling here.

    May 04, 2022 04:39 PM

    Powell raises rates with a promise of more of the same yet yields drop in response. Armaggedon avoided for conventional market at the 4200 or so lows on spx again. We are saved.
    Gold an the beneficiaries stocks having their moment after sliding for past 2 months. Let’s see if we can at least close positve for the week above 1900.

      May 04, 2022 04:52 PM

      Gold stocks fell for two weeks, not two months. GDX is still up 24% since the end of January.

    May 04, 2022 04:24 PM

    Gold stocks are lower now than two months ago, gold high Mar 7. No matter what the spin, you lost money if you continue to hold thru the pop ups with any timeframe. This is with gdx, look at the dregs like the touted ipt posted last

      May 04, 2022 04:16 PM

      Lol, those “dregs” of mine should’ve been purchased at/near the lows that I identified while you thought it was better to “hibernate” or wait for the “candy store” to open.
      At the January low, you and Doc were looking for MUCH lower prices across the board. There was no discussion, nuanced or otherwise, about the possibility of a low. Then GDX, GDXJ, SILJ went up over 40% while HL went up 68% and IPT went up 61% instead of falling by 50%+ to .20 as Doc thought it might.
      So your victory laps now are a bit rich. Nothing unfolded as you guys expected, not even Doc’s more recent expectation that NEM was making a head and shoulders top (it went up another $20 or more instead). Conversely, at least many of my charts CLEARLY showed the risks that came with the April highs. Multiple resistance levels were reached on big obvious negative divergences along with extended cycles and overbought readings. And it didn’t matter if we priced things in dollars or gold, there were many similar pictures that made the risks clear.
      For example:

        May 04, 2022 04:21 PM

        Hi Matthew, I’m interested in how you see other commodities trading in the near future, I’m excluding precious metals. Thanks, DT

          May 04, 2022 04:38 PM

          Hi DT, I believe most are ready for a long break, at least on a relative basis and most likely even a nominal basis. They’ve had a spectacular run and have earned a break, even a potentially brutal correction. Long term, I remain very bullish but the risk of a correction now is high. To be clear, I don’t have a strong opinion about how much they will fall. It looks like it could be a lot but they could very well levitate more than I expect for a long time while they reset their technical picture. They might even go higher for awhile first but I like the risk-reward of the gold space much more, specifically the smaller caps and the silver stocks (finally).

            May 04, 2022 04:41 PM

            Copper has held up well for the last year (since the power top of May 10, 2021) but I wouldn’t say the coast is clear. It could quickly fall to the 3.60s.

            May 04, 2022 04:14 PM

            Thank you for your reply Matthew, what really has me concerned is The US dollar, if it keeps moving higher as it has been it won’t be because it is the prettiest baby in the nursery, it will be because of a short squeeze (aka Rick Ackerman) that is happening because of all the debt out there. This debt will never be paid back and it is so huge that The Federal Reserve can no longer control the financial system. A debt implosion is sure to happen and if you own precious metal and you are in debt you are going down. The only way to survive the next decade will be to have no debt and some gold or silver or their related stocks. DT

            May 04, 2022 04:59 PM

            Good discussion on the commodities guys, and yeah it wouldn’t be surprising, after the move in most of the energy commodities, base metals, and agricultural soft commodities to see many of them take a break for a period, and correct and then base for a while, before starting their next leg higher.

            If we get a big market rout and selloff, and increased growth concerns, it’s unlikely most commodities will be spared, but there are still some pretty big supply/demand imbalances keeping some of them well supported thus far.

        May 04, 2022 04:15 PM

        Oh matthew, I bought February and dumped a month later and repurchased a measly third days ago. Don’t want to speak for Doc, but he’s keep nibbling for months saying no rush for anything especially with the dregs. Folks here are underwater with the buy low and then buy lower and admitting as such.
        All the while your having endless nirvanna moments comparing two losers and praising the one which has gone down the least. Come on

          May 04, 2022 04:00 PM

          Yeah sure, Doc’s always nibbling while talking about much more downside in the future. He’s done it at every single low for years and you’d hold it against him if he came close to bothering you as much as I do. Your psychology is a funny study.
          What was it? Another month or two before the candy store fully opens? You guys are probably going to regret waiting. And 1650 gold, right?

            May 04, 2022 04:08 PM

            Matt, never spoke of 1650, never doubted gold holding water with progressive higher consolidation levels, always felt opposite with the dregs with each successive pop up including most recent.
            Just playing the pop ups for what they are, until proven otherwise. Nothing yet says it won’t be the same again, no matter the perpetual hype from those talking their book.
            As to Doc’s mortal sin of a bad call from years ago that you keep bringing up. No I wasn’t there to witness it, but I would forgive him by now. He certainly hasn’t missed anything this past year in my time here by nibbling his way along with gold equities and doing opposite on the downside with conventional market.

            May 04, 2022 04:12 PM

            Quit the strawmanning. You know damn well I’m not talking about “a bad call from years ago.” I said he always talks about much more downside in the future and has done so at “every single low for years” and of course you know that despite your limitations. You were here for many such calls, this year, last year, the year before that and the year before that, etc. The “sin” is not being wrong, it’s being wrong while pretending you’ve been right all along and even downplaying every big missed move.
            Regarding the likes of IPT, I identified lows that all proved to be lows at the time and several were very close to the lows for the year. I never claimed that they would be such and such price by such and such date nor did I suggest that I was buying for short term gains. Most here already knew how I play the juniors and those who don’t could have asked. I’ve always said that I only actively trade the liquid larger caps and ETFs, not the juniors which I hold for much more speculative upside.
            You’re quite biased to put it nicely if you believe “he certainly hasn’t missed anything this past year in my time here…” He’s missed tremendous moves in easily traded issues like HL, the ETFs and countless others. Big ol’ safe Newmont went up 65% from his “hibernation” low. That’s a huge move for such a company and there were many others. And how many times has he reported, after the fact, selling something at or near a high? I’ve lost count and of course I don’t believe it. No high gets by him yet every single low does?

    May 04, 2022 04:01 PM

    Dollar Index : May : Retracement : Fed Raises Rates

      May 04, 2022 04:36 PM

      Turn Tables:
      NatGas Topping. PMs Bottomed Monday.

        May 05, 2022 05:56 AM

        Dollar and Gold rising together again. Nuptials?

          May 05, 2022 05:14 AM

          Fling flown. Bad day for Black Rock?

    May 04, 2022 04:53 PM

    Hi Matthew, I would like you to listen to what Rick Ackerman says about the rise in The US dollar, the short squeeze is causing a melt up, and if you are in debt you are in trouble. DT

      May 04, 2022 04:52 PM

      DT, the dollar could very well melt up but I am still not in the least concerned that it’s purchasing power in things other than the euro will also melt up. In other words, the majority of any forthcoming strength will really be due to euro weakness and not real strength.
      A deflation is simply not gonna happen but I am talking about the real definition of deflation: a contraction of the “money” (currency) supply. Many deflationists use definitions that are hard to pin down and not accurate. For example, some conflate deflation with “depression” which is not correct at all. We could easily be heading for an inflationary depression which is worse than the deflationary kind since it destroys the savings that are necessary for exiting a depression.
      The Fed always has the power to avoid deflation since it can easily destroy (more of) the value of the currency that it emits any time it wants but avoiding a depression or even a relatively modest downturn is not so easy which is why definitions and statistics are constantly manipulated. Just look at all the unemployed U.S. workers that were defined out of existence a few years ago. Along with half the population, the central planners are amoral, immoral and probably nuts.
      I do agree completely with the idea that most people should avoid debt.

      For the record, I am not trying to sway anyone with my “complete lack of concern” about deflation. I put it that way as a disclosure. I really am not concerned so it would be wrong to pretend otherwise for the sake of decorum (or for the sake of certain little sh*ts who seem to enjoy misinterpreting my intentions).

    May 04, 2022 04:55 PM

    Iamgold(IAG) stumbled and fell onto the sale rack for $2.00 earlier.