Brien Lundin – If The Catalyst For This 5 Month Correction Is The Fed Does That Mean It’ll Continue Into 2023?
Brien Lundin, Editor of The Gold Newsletter joins us today to discuss the ongoing correction in big picture terms. We discuss what the main catalyst has been for this correction compared to past major sell downs in the markets. So far this correction is lacking a major event that could lead to a full on crash. Right now it’s all about the Fed and where high interest rates will impact first.
you will own nothing and be happy…the bankers will buy all those shares on the cheap…then run it back up?..an idea…let the inflation go until some reason breaks it…?
Trend Turn Table : https://tinyurl.com/mt2berap
All PMs MaxSat(6). Most possible for today.
Sans big turnaround, deeper tomorrow.
Perfect setup for a weekend wash!
AG’s (FR.TO) 14 day RSI has never been this oversold. Not even during the 2008 crash or the 2012-2016 bearmarket.
Despite the broad market carnage, GCC just refuses to budge. It is barely down today.
GCC vs silver is now above its 2018 peak. And the low we saw in that ratio in 2020 looks like a major low that won’t get taken out for a long long time (years and years).
Basically, if you had bought silver in 2009, a year after QE1 was announced, you would be no better off today in terms of its purchasing power vs a broad basket of commodities.
WTAF?
Even if you believe in silver as a monetary metal, you have to wonder what is the market discounting? My goodness. I’ll tell you what it suggests, it suggests the market doesn’t perceive currency risk in the slightest, or that the last decade has brought us any closer to an end to the current fiat system.
Green, GCC has topped and will start its’ descent soon. I almost took an initial position in ARNGF—there is no hurry since there will in all likelihood be no V recovery this time around.
I really doubt that GCC is going to crash. It has behaved far too well.
Maybe it hits $22-23. Maybe. I honestly see it staying in a pretty tight range between now and spring 2023 when the 100 WMA catches up to current price.
Every hedge fund and pension fund is going to want to get a piece of this macro story, and it will be bought on any little dip. My 2 cents.
ARNGF looks like it will close its April 2020 gap tomorrow or next week.
Re: “Even if you believe in silver as a monetary metal…”
What one believes isn’t a factor. The evidence shows that silver is a monetary metal.
It is “discounting” a risk-off market and the systemic stresses that come with it.
Gold is the one to focus on in the final analysis. As I said a week ago, the close for this week is what matters most, not the intraweek daily action.
hello, mathhew, what do you think where $silver goes? thank you. alex
Hi Alex, I think silver could bottom between 19.75 and 20.00 but it could go as low as 18.65. The breaking of the lows of last September and December opened the door to a retracing of the vertical move that began in July, 2020. Hitting 19.85 or lower tomorrow could easily end this move down but we won’t know until we see the action.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p14315180855&a=1111101569
exactly…those are the /si numbers
It’s interesting that silver is currently just 4.7% below its September 2020 low. The whole 20 month correction has really been more of a volatile, high level base-building.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43620416651&a=1163733918
thank you, matthew. i like your charts. good help. best to you.
Thank you Alex, best to you.
Well, the broad *unweighted* commodity basket (GCC) certainly isn’t discounting a “risk-off market and the systemic stresses that come with it.” Just the opposite. It is discounting massive FUTURE inflation in its superb behavior over the last 2 months.
yes, I am looking at one snapshot in time. Maybe silver doubles in the next couple of weeks to bring things back in line. all I can say is that as of today, silver hasn’t discounted any money printing since 2009 whatsoever. And even if it does begin to perk up at some future date, the charts (mainly the ratio charts) are at least suggesting that any large run is likely years and years away. Hell, you could make the case that gold and silver topped out in real terms in 2020 (i.e., vs GCC) based on the size of their spike and the subsequent selloff and are set for a secular bear market in real terms.
I mean, we were getting giddy with silver breaking above $19 back in friggin’ 2010 for gods sake. And yet here we are. yes yes I know, silver is about to start its moonshot ascent and this post is a contrary indicator.
GCC is hardly the canary in the coal mine that silver is when it comes to systemic stress. For example, before the crash of 2008, silver peaked in March while GCC peaked in July, about 4 months later. GCC isn’t money. GCC is unlikely to top its March high before it has a serious correction.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84603926003&a=1163789505&r=1652396459762&cmd=print
Yes, you could make the case that gold-silver topped out in 2020 in real terms and that’s because they did. Hello? The great deflation that few understood because few know real from nominal ENDED in 2020. Why do you think the GSR hit its highest level in history (at around 130)? Nevertheless, financial assets have a long way to fall in real terms and gold has a long way to fall versus silver. I am way more bullish the miners of the metals than the metals themselves and this violent shakeout is evidence that I should be since it will leave virtually everyone on the sidelines. And no, no, you don’t know; I have never been one to claim that a moonshot was imminent.
Silver vs GCC is approaching a huge low and a 5% drop in silver tomorrow could do it. We’ll see…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3AGCC&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82347259303&a=1163781558&r=1652395666356&cmd=print
exactly Green. You only have to look back a few weeks to see all the porn doom on US currency, how cdn dollar to operform etc etc.
Dollar will continue to lose buying power as it always has, but it’s got reserve currency status and unless that is lost, the printing will continue along with debt and in times of crisis will be held. When that dam bursts is a hail mary pass for the newsletter writers.
Week GDX..coming down to, for certain, test the triple bottom…I looks to being able to hold due to current 113 million shares and up to 154 million in that support zone…glta
Soloway is collecting Congrats on his $20,000 BC call. Still expects gold to be the best performing asset come December. He’s been right so far!
https://marketsanity.com/gareth-soloways-20k-bitcoin-target-is-finally-within-reach-is-this-the-end-for-cryptos/
i was hoping this was a none stooge zone
I should alert everyone that Bonzo, Lord of the Idiots, gave in to temptation and bought more NFGC and ESKYF today. Now the blithering idiot in the White House will get us in a nuclear war and everything will crash and I will wish I had waited to buy. Maybe I. should’ve bought more ammo and dried pinto beans instead of Canadian exploration plays. What do Matthew’s forks and Doc’s charts say?
Bonzo, both of those look like they need more time to digest their huge moves of the last 1-2 years but you might have nailed a short term low, especially regarding ESKYF. I have to wonder about that huge gap from December 2020….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ESKYF&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p66259674337
Thanks Matthew. At least I paid $2C less per share for my NFG than Eric Sprott paid last month for another 10% of the company. And ESK’s summer drill program starts very soon and might be amazing,
even stupendous.
Gold will move higher and faster at this stage than Silver due mostly to the effect of many governments putting themselves back on a gold standard. China is next to back it’s currency with Gold. Gold will be shifting to the east as Western governments don’t see the obvious and Gold will move to The Orient because they have the stronger economies. Gold went to The US in the 1920’s because America had a dynamic economy, it has now shifted to where the money is flowing. DT
I believe we will probably continue to see pressure on the PMs and stocks for the next 3 weeks before the next FED meeting before we get a meaningful bounce—many of these stocks have just taken out their support levels and in a market like this you can’t expect to see them bounce right back after that happens. The key charts right now are the gold and silver weekly charts with the odds of at least 2 more weeks of this carnage. I’m now in continual purchasing mode.
Doc, it sounds like you expect this carnage to go on for at least another two or three more weeks but you say you are in continual purchasing mode. Does that mean you are buying but you think this market has further to fall.
I think there is more forced liquidation still to come as broker’s accounts gradually get straightened out. DT
DT, I believe that for some of the juniors and mid tiers that the next 2-3 weeks could drive them close to their lows; however, for some of the large caps I believe it’ll take a number of weeks yet. There are some stocks I’m concentrating on purchasing now as they go lower since I believe they’re very close to their lows whereas I can wait to purchase some of the larger cap ones since they have further to fall over time.
Now that bitcoin has intraday hit my target price of $25,000 I have to decide if this is just an interim low.
I believe bitcoin has further to fall.
The recovery hasn’t started, The Dow is gyrating to the downside. The margin accounts are being called in, the big question is ” Who could arrive at a reasonable idea of what a given stock is worth, all the old standards of value have been upset. The worst of the storm has not blown over yet.
The liquidation of brokers accounts on margin could surpass one trillion dollars. The panic is not over unless the Bankers decide to re-liquify, and who knows if we haven’t passed the point of no return. Once the panic is over this could take 3 months to 3 years to see the worst of the prices. DT