Al’s on CBS Radio. Hear the exerpt
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I don’t think free trade exists any more. Why should the USA continually rack up the highest trade deficit numbers and the politicians cite Free Trade is the goal? I am for FAIR trade. If countires dump their products at below market they should be accessed a fair tariff so manufacturing jobs can still exist here.
Hi James C,
Of course,
Big tired Al
Al,,I agree with your gut feeling,,I think this is not going to go as planned,the asians do not play by the same rules…it is all about themselves.
If we only get 70,000 new jobs,,,,big deal,,,we need 100,000 per month for several months to just get close to where we were.
thanks
Jerry
Hi Jerry,
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that we need a lot more than 100K new jobs per month to get where we were.
Best,
Big Al
Al, sources vary, but the accepted range anywhere I’ve read is 125,000 to 150,000 jobs/month to keep up with population growth. That does not include normal attrition due to retirement, deaths, quitting, leave, firings, etc. A great number would be 300,000+ per month.
Good interview…you told them what you believe and didn’t rely on soundbites. Say, Al, you ever consider running for office?? ;>}
HI John W,
No, but I would be happy to be your campaign manager.
Thanks for the kind words,
Big Al
Hi CFA
I AM WITH YOU 100%,
Big Al
Morning cfs,
For some reason whenever I respond on my blackberry cfs automatically changes over to CFA. Maybe you are a CFA. You certainly bright enough, as I can tell by your comments, to be one.
Thanks man,
Big Al
Morning cfs,
I think everyone knows that we are BROKE! Even the president.
I think that the reality of the situation is that people are grasping at straws because they realize the true gravity of the situation.
I mean, sure, this agreement on the surface looks good, but my point was that, in reality, it really will not make a big difference in the total scheme of things.
Sorry for the tardiness of my response. The Silver Summit was a very busy time and I have a “bug” that is knocking me on my ass.
Best,
Big Al
Morning cfs,
I am pretty sure that everyone realizes that we are broke.
I am also pretty convinced that everyone is grasping at straws at this point. I don’t see how any of the straws that they pull out will accomplish much of anything. The country is going to have to go through some real difficult times before it gets through this. We all agree on that.
The only caveat to my statement about difficult times is that, who knows, maybe everything that I learned as an undergraduate economics major and graduate finance and international trade major was total balderdash. I guess there is always a chance of that, but I highly doubt it.
Sorry for the late response to your comment. Just got in early this morning from The Silver Summit; had to get up for an interview on Butler on Business; and, then collapsed back in bed until about 1/2 an hour ago.
I do appreciate all of your comments.
Big Al
Big Al;
I have a question for you for the weekend:
We have had about 20 examples in modern economics, from Hong Kong through emerging post-soviet economies that low flat-rate taxation increases economic growth and increasing taxation decreases or terminates economic growth (by sucking out capital needed for the free market).
Realizing that the actual answer may depend slightly on a country’s position in its economic cycle, at what level of taxation would you estimate is the point of transition, below which there is growth and above which there is no growth or a collapsing economy?
And as a follow-up question:
Why do most democracies choose to have taxation levels above the transition point?
Hi cfs,
Great question!
I will address this issue with Dan Pisenti in a Weekend Special.
To me, by the way, a flat tax really seems to be the logical “partial” solution to our problem. I want to stress that, in my mind, it is only a partial solution.
Thanks for the idea,
Big Al
When the credit bubble in China hits they will be forced to sell the gold the consumers bought taking gold down to $1000, causing the companies that advertise on this site to be crushed. Then the gold stocks will be a good buy.
I don’t think so Dave. In this case, the credit owed is virtually all internal debt. If people who borrowed money need to raise money and own gold, they’ll sell (that and their real estate) to raise cash, and that could have an effect. But since they owe it to the Chinese government, who own the vast majority of gold in the nation, I don’t think it would have enough of an effect to bring it down to $1,000. But, yes, it could go down some more if there aren’t enough buyers elsewhere.
Hi John W and Dave,
I have to agree with John W here.
The Chinese are not buying gold, in my opinion, because they want to run the price up only to have it collapse.
Their actions are very well thought out and, for the most part, always have been.
I just don’t see a collapse in the price of gold to $1K happening.
Best,
Big Al
I do not think the chinese have as much debt as the americans,,and will not be forced
to liquidate there gold holdings,,,,plus the chinese have just been given the right to hold gold…and are incouraged to hold gold, which is entirely different situation than in europe and america…rememeber the chinese have a history of fiat currency which goes back 1000 years…(china was the first country to have paper currency and have had
several colapes concerning their currency of fiat…) so, I do not think you will have gold a $1000 USD. again. If you are waiting for this to happen you will miss the last train out for the season….
You did not make it to WBBM.
Typical of Columbia Broadcasting Socialism
That is really interesting cfs,
The segment was taken right from their website.
I have our publicist looking into this issue right now.
Thanks for the tip,
Big Al
The morning slot was about Panama’s Copa airlines and the early afternoon slot (12:51 pm) was taken by fluff about IPO market non-news.
Big Al, it would be greate to hear from Roger on the markets today. Missed him yesterday. The HUI is down and a lot of that is due to AEM.
Hi James C,
He is still over at The Silver Summit. I came home early due to this killer cold I have had since last weekend.
I have a call into him and when he calls me back, I will ask him to do that today.
Thanks,
Big All
TODAY IS ,…. WHY YOU WANT TO ……..”KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY”
pick up some metal a little cheaper.. this is your discount,.(all metals down in afternoon.) This is not timing the market, but, knowing the market..
NOW tomarrow it may go down again…who knows for sure,,,nobody..
HI Jerry,
Interesting turn around in the metals’ markets today.
People are confused!
Big Al
http://www.kereport.com/2011/07/08/big-als-equity-position/
If you bought an equal dollar amount of each stock listed here on January 1, 2011 you would be down 24%. More than the S&P500 and the DJIA.
Dave,,
So what is your point ,,that Al, has not picked wisely,,, that he is not diversifed enough
….to loaded up on pm stocks,, or Al,,believes in what he preaches…
Hi Jerry,
Yep, I say what I say not because anyone pays me to say it but because I believe in my investment philosophy 100%.
Thanks for your support, my friend,
Big Al
Considering that well chosen juniors can very realistically return 1,000%, and even much more; a 24% drawdown is hardly a big deal. You cannot expect big returns without extra risk. Of course these facts are meaningless to those who try to deny personal responsibility. Responsibility for our own actions is unavoidable though, since losses are suffered alone. If you do not know what you are getting into, you are taking a gamble the moment you choose to proceed! Like the rest of us, Al does not have a crystal ball. The shorter the time frame, the more difficult it is to predict the next move. Over the long term, Al, like many of us, has been right for years. I have no doubt that he will be right for years to come.
HI Matthew,
Thank you for your kind words.
Yes, over the long term, this market has been very good to myself and my family. It has been my life since I was 38 years of age and I would not change one second of it! Even the hard times as they build character.
Best,
Big Al
I know, Dave.
But know what, I still believe in the sector. Remember also that I am diversified and the 30% down tic for me represent the 60% of our portfolio that is in the pm equity sector.
I am convinced and comfortable with my belief that it will come back in spades.
Best,
Big Al
extend benefits,,,,for those displaced….is Obama kidding…he is really stupid
No, ob knows exactly what he is doing. Redistribution of wealth from those that have worked and saved to those that sit on their behind and suck from the gov’t. Thats the only way he will stay in office. Get the blood sucker and illegal alien vote and give him four more to complete the destruction of the U.S.
always glad to hear from another jerry,… , big O , has to be carefull with this
redistribution of wealth,,, the only ones left to redistribute from
will be the obama family,,,
Mr Mabie,
Your initial comments are why I am on record as saying that I simply DO NOT AGREE WITH THE PRESIDENT’S VISION FOR OUR COUNTRY.
Best,
Big Al
Yeah Jerry,
That does seem to me to be a totally non-nonsensical comment.
I’d like to know how someone’s job is determined to be displaced. Why would a civil servant sitting in an office building in Virginia know anything about a person who grows (or grew) radishes in Idaho?? And as Al said, add another entitlement program?? Sublimely stupid.
Oh year John,
Not sublimely stupid, REALLY STUPID!
Big Al
Hi Al,
You are so right. Whatever Obama does from now until the election is for the good of his campaign. Notice, however how he promised special favors to his union buddies.
Free trade is an important part of our economic growth and freedom which was drafted into the constitution by our Founding Fathers.
HI Karen,
I agree with you.
I would ask you a question however. Tell me a recent president who did not take this similar action in the year leading up to his potential re-election.
I think that the only one who did not fall into this category was Regan.
Am I wrong?
Big Al
HI JERRY……… Stupit!..no, dumb yes, he is just trying to buy votes…….cunning? yes
irishtony,,,how are you doing? glad to hear from you..
.Did you see my note to Al , about asking you,if you had heard
the news , … Portugal was considering leaving the euro union.
I heard it on BBC this morning,I was half asleep…and I thought you would be
the man to ask , since they are in your neighborhood, (so to speak)
Irish,,I went back and saw your followup…after I posted the above, thanks
Hello Mr Irish sir,
I echo the others’ comments. Great to have you back.
How is everything going!
God bless,
Big Al
No news about Portugal, but new info has appeared.
The October 23 is now an interim meeting, with final meeting scheduled for October 26. Note Greece currently does not have enough money to pay interest due Nov 1.
Sarkozy’s wife had a baby yesterday, so he is losing sleep due to more than Angela’s intransigence.
The EU problem, as far as I can tell, is insoluble. It was thought that leveraging up the EFSF to € 2trillion would be sufficient to bail Greece and other weak EU nations, but it clearly is not sufficient to also isolate key banks, and without that the whole house of cards collapses.
The EU financia lsystem is leveraged 25 to 1, so a drop of 4% in asset values wipes out all equity in the system. Total debts in the EU banking system (including credit unions and building societies) is 148% of 2010 total EU GDP and probably over 150% of current GDP.
Angela Merkel appears to be limiting further leveraging up of the EFSF, because it would probably hurt Germany’s AAA credit rating.
(Fitch warned the biggest 5 Italian banks that their credit ratings were under review.
In case you think the US is free and clear of EU’s problems, even ignoring the derivative problem, the US financial system is leveraged 12 to 1, and so an 8% drop in asset values would wipe out all equity. Since the leverage is not uniform throughout all banks, watch for increasing insolvencies. I have already commented on FDIC being hopelessly under capitalised to cover losses, so we can expect the intelligent to shift funds out of weak banks and precipitate some of the collapses.
cfs 2000 , are you overseas now….did you start your winter vacation in sunny southern europe…? Hope you are enjoying your stay if you are…Maybe
you and irishtony…can keep us informed on european news. thanks for the above info.
With all due respect
Jerry
HI cfs,
I was interviewed on this issue earlier this morning on Wall Street Radio.
Sarah will post the interview shortly.
Your sentiment mirrors mine exactly.
Best,
Big Al
Jerry,
I’m about to leave (on Wednesday) for England for a week (to time-zone adjust) and then down to Spain. Still in US at the moment.
stay in touch…have a safe trip…
Yes, cfs,
Please do stay in touch and have a safe trip.
Big Al
What part of BROKE, busted and DYING OF DEBT does our commie -in-chief not understand? (Suppose to be the most inelligent president ever?!)
I am, however, pro-free-trade, providing intellectual rights are enforced.