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The reason Nadler is just getting it wrong over and over is his basis for statistics. Jon has said in the past the predominant demand for gold is speculative buying, and (dropping) jewelry demand. He also has stats showing that gold’s high price has result in an equalizing and, apparently, never-ending bonanza for the scrap market. Silver, he goes on to say, being so high in price, will lead to alternatives or greater supply, as you say Jerry. Jon also dismisses the Euro and US debts as workable problems that “are behind us now and we survived”. In short, they are not pro-longed threats.
It’s hard to accept any of his arguments. More silver and gold are in production, but that ‘speculative’ or investment demand is rising every day. Chinese citizens are going to dump their gold…once bought, it’s kept for generations in a family. Scrap gold supplies won’t stay the same forever. Much scrap requires smelting or simply isn’t .9999. i.e. try selling a necklace to an investor. To suppose Europe and US debts are ‘behind us’ is just weird.
Supply will one day rise to meet demand. Undoubtedly, silver and gold will drop from whatever price they achieve when that happens. I don’t know if Ag can hit 1,000/oz in real dollars, but who knows. In inflated-dollars, that’s definitely a possibility…maybe even a probability. When the technicals show it peaking, or other commodities crash, time to consider selling.
“Chinese citizens are going to dump their gold”
should read
Chinese citizens areN’T going to dump their gold
HELLO JOHN….GREAT TO HEAR FOR YOU…..
MR. nadler is wishy washy…..I think…..I have stopped listening or reading
anything he writes…., what do you think?
I do appreciate your comments, I do not want to be short sided, if I am missing
something..
Your not missing anything, he is……the debt problems are behind us…thats ludicrous!!
Marc
I always like a counterpoint. Heck, we ARE pretty enthusiastic on metals here! The problem is, who’s argument is backed-up more plausibly? Nadler, it should be said, has always advocated 5-10% of a portfolio in metals. I’m still trying to decide if he’s playing the role of bad guy, since any publicity is good publicity. I don’t think he’s reading from the right statistics, or fully appreciates how the Far East adores gold.
John W.,
You are right on, I am on record as a anit-nader guy…just dont understand his positions at all…does he know something we dont? – No…he just wierd
Marc
Fortunately for Jon, he doesn’t have to make calls on prices like some of the analysts we hear from on Al’s show. He was calling for gold to drop at $800/oz. After inflation adjustment for the drop in the US dollar, it’s possibly gold may never go that low again.
Good Afternoon Mr. Out-Of-The-Box,
Sure glad I bought silver on 12/30!
Best,
Big Al
You are a very smart man…….but, you know I like silver also..
ootb jerry
By the way ..J.TURK…IS CALLING FOR $400.PER….(see KWN,today)
It’s been horrible since Sept 6 but MrTurk is steadfast in his prediction of silver at 70 in 3 months:
James…thanks for posting the link….more support…
Hi Rog,
You know I think the same that Obama will win reelection. Here’s another plot to win the votes of the mindless: http://patriotupdate.com/16799/does-obama-appointee-ensure-epic-mortgage-bailout
Who’s gonna pay for it?
Preparing,
Lynn
LYNN It made me laugh . Was i supposed to ?
HI Lynn,
That has been talked about for quite some time now. Nothing new. We talked about that on the show months ago.
That doesn’t make it right or wrong.
Big Al
Hi Al,
True. And now they are talking about it again due to another appointment. I guess we will be hearing more and more about these so-called “freebies” or handouts now that we’re getting closer to November.
Best regards,
Lynn
Hello Roger,
With the dollar possibly surging to 87.+- over the next 3-4 months and the inverse correlation with the precious metals how likely will the prices you are calling for ,
reachable?
Every investor needs to be aware that the dollar index is only a measure of relative value. If both the euro and the dollar are falling in value, the dollar can still appear to be rising as long as the euro is falling faster. So, when the dollar goes “up” it may or may not be rising in real terms. This is why it is possible to have the dollar at the same level today as it was in December of 2004, while gold has more than tripled. If the euro were to fall back to its 2001 level of .85, the dollar could return to the 150 area yet still decline in real terms. Europe’s misfortune would do nothing to improve conditions in the U.S. The dollar WILL continue to fall versus gold and hard assets.
Since 2000, gold has been the dominant monetary instrument overall; but as long as the dollar remains the reserve currency of the world, it seems likely to outperform all other paper currencies — all of which I consider dollar derivatives.
Guten Tag Trader Rog,
Morning all Big Al´s blog fellows,
Many thanks, dear Rog, for your perspective views.
You are correct: $Silver is still under pressure. HARPEX is still at its lows with approx. -56% since end March. The $BDI is unfolding its perfect Head & Shoulder pattern (please, all readers, have a look too). The “beast” must touch the 1250-60 level first and climb back to the north for speaking about a finalized correction in the base metals.
The euro will, short term, touch the 1.25 and complete the Right Shoulder of a perfect Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. At 1.25, the traders´sentiment will carry the euro back to 1.40, it will rebounde like a ball against a wall. The euro will regain strength and that will bury the USDX rally. $Gold will strongly follow the uptrend.
Until then, I still expect one more turn back to the south again for both PMs (time frame perhaps two more trading weeks). All good things are 3 ($1,335.00 for Gold and $26.00 for Silver) as we say in German!
Trader Rog, one question please, when expires the Feb Futures Option Expiration contract for both metals this month?
Have a good trading day.
Anna
Excuse, I wrote 1,335.00 instead of 1,535.00. To much emphasis to the down side for today!
Anna,
Wie ghets,
What chart software do you use? I have some pretty good stuff available to me, but none of them shows your favorite indicators. Only Bloomberg quotes BDI, and I have to go to harperpetersen’s website to get HARPEX. I don’t really mind too much, but was just curious if you shop for your info in one place.
A la prochaine,
John
Dear John,
Mir geht´s gut!
Every morning I have first a look at the $BDI from the SharpCharts.com tools.
For the HARPEX (http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do) you must wait mid-weekly for the new numbers.
For the big picture I regulary look at for instance http://www.osnanet.de/nmzf/index.html and other places. I check every day approx. 250 stocks grouped in different investment fields.
Anna,
Excellent. I’ll have a look at sharpcharts. You really are a go-getter…250 stocks takes a bit of patience.
goo d morgan? Anna….(need to practice my German) just in case I need to move,
how are the alps today?
If silver goes back down, Al will be buying again..and it will be another good time
…before it is to late…to accummulate
Hi Mr. Out of the Box!
Between clearing snow and observing the markets!
Don´t move to Germany, it´s getting not so funny there…
High-persistence economizing and always reloading on the dips so long you can get the “precious stuff”!
SILVER IS GOING UP….SOME ARE CALLING FOR $1000 oz…sounds crazy…..but , if the
ETF’s..ever have to stand for delivery…..there is not enough, game over….
market will go crazy…believe it or not…
So, some, say that there is plenty…but, they have to find it, and mine it, and mining
takes time to develop and bring to the surface…
Oh, the ones callling for $1000, are using the 10 to l ratio,,so, if gold goes to $12,000
you have your number….