The Doctor is In
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Don’t forget Doc,
Markets are forward thinking and they “price in” what is to be expected, so it may not be the earnings themselves, but what you stated in your comments – “guidance” – but even then, don’t be surprised if the markets actually do rally on “better than expected” earnings, since many companies already lowered their guidance to a level that might just give poor earnings an appearance of “good performance.”
Too many bears out there. Just too many. We may get our correction but I don’t see a market collapse. Not this year. Sorry.
As for the PMs – Doc’s spot on with that 50 SMA. And often when a stock or sector is in a down trend, the 50 SMA often acts as resistance where shorting is often done (now using algos).
Great analysis Doc! Nice to hear sound unbiased analysis.
Mark, you know what I’ve noticed intuitively about the 50 day MA when it performs it’s death cross—it’s very rare that when pricing intersects it the first time that it moves over it and stays—it usually moves the pricing lower the first time and then the second time it intersects it is when you have a chance to move over it and move toward resistance at the 200 day MA. Just something that I’ve noticed by looking at a large number of charts over time. I hope it doesn’t happen this time with the PMs.
By the way, Mark, you’re right about the analysts taking down expectations—they’re looking for about a 1%+ gain. Then they can say how stocks beat expectations.
Yes, and that is one of the reasons why I am not BIG on the Death Cross because most of the move down has already occurred. If ANYTHING, I’ve seen the death cross become more of a bottom indicator than a continuation of the downtrend. Not always, but more often than many “pros” like to mention.
thanks Doc
One correction I don’t expect a market crash until later this summer because I think the dollar has begun an intermediate decline. This should keep the runaway move in stocks intact although the momentum is already beginning to fade, and should continue to do so as we breach the all time highs. The further stocks stretch above the 200 day moving average the more nervous institutional traders are going to become, and the more big money is going to hand off stocks to emotional retail traders.
These are the conditions that typically generate a crash or semi crash type event similar to the flash crash on 2010.
I expect the Fed will double down on QE after the crash this summer and stocks will rebound to test the highs again, probably later this fall.
The damage will already be done though and stocks will have already begun a multi-month topping process. During this time excess liquidity will begin to leak faster and faster out of stocks and flow into commodities.
This will spike the price of oil, food and gold. And when commodity prices spike, economies collapse, just like they did in 2008.
I would agree with you, Doc, except the market always sees a bounce up just before close. This getting too repetative.
WHERE DOES DOC GET HIS 200 WMA?
Jim, please clarify for me. Thanks.
WHERE DO YOU GO TO GET THE 200 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE?
Once you get there, if you have trouble pulling it up,let me know and I’ll walk you through it.
I am familiar with stockcharts and have tried to pull up the 200wma but could only get the shorter time lines if you could walk me through I would be gratefull
Jim, first pull up the home screen and on the right upper portion you should see “enter a symbol”. Let’s look at the “slv”—-place slv in the space and then click on “go”. You should then get the daily chart—underneath it are all kinds of parameters by which you can adjust the charts—–I have my own preferences and employ them whenever I follow stocks. At the top of the chart on the left hand corner, you’ll see your symbol “slv” in a box and in the box to it’s right the word “daily”—–the box to the right of the word daily will have a box with a down arrow. Click on the down arrow and the words daily and weekly will appear. Click on the word “weekly” and then click on the box to the right which says “update”. Your weekly MAs should then appear on the slv chart. Let me know if this works—-if it doesn’t, we’ll eventually get there.
Jim, by the way, I’ve set my parameters for my charts. If you go to the parameters under the charts to “overlays” and click on the down buttons you’ll be given choices. On the top box click the down button and click “moving average” (simple) and then place 50 in the parameter box next to it. Then go to next box below overlays and click the down button on the second box and once again click “moving average” (simple) and then place 200 in the parameter box next to it. Then when you click update on the top as in my prior paragraph to you, you should have the 50 and 200 week moving averages. After you get accustomed to these we can look at adding some other features for you.
I see on Canadian insider that Eric Sprott has sold over 2 million shares or $20 million + dollars of silver in his Sprott PHY silver fund in the past few weeks.
Why? What does THAT mean?
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=Sprott+Physical+Silver+Trust+%7C+PHS Actually cecil it’s 27 million shares and almost 30 million dollars DT
Are you talking about his personal holdings (meaning he is expecting prices to fall further) or are you talking about Fund sales to buyers trying to pick up shares at a price low point? Sorry, I don’t rad Canadian Insider so maybe just clarify for me because we all know Sprott is an uber bull on metals.
All we know is that he has sold that many units that he personally holds within his fund in that period of time. There are many reasons for selling and only one for buying but when an insider sells that many units in a short period for that much money is say’s to me that like Soros he can be saying one thing but doing another.
He might be a uber bull on metals but he is also a (billionaire) manipulator, and trader. DT
Sorry 2.7 million shares DT
Al, I agree with your good point about so many people losing sight of the really important things that are going on right now and are instead getting caught up in stupid, irrelevant things and just plain media “noise.”
However, I must strongly disagree with your dismissal as “insignificant” and “unimportant” the heartless killing of helpless unborn children – millions of them. Please do not insult your pro-life audience members by casually using that horrible example to illustrate your otherwise good and valid intended point.
I love your show and listen often, but couldn’t let this moral issue (to me) pass without remarking. This comment was prompted when I just read an article that reminded me of the heart of the abortion question, the babies.
Bruce, I couldn’t let your remark pass without remarking.
By the way…….wrong thread.
The comments regarding abortion were presented in the context of issues pertaining to government. I detest you or anyone else, using your vote to try to use the government and their guns to force your opinions on me or anyone else…..regardless of the subject.
As I have commented before, one of the big reasons that I left the Western World is that it was the only option I could pursue to avoid having my neighbour try to force their beliefs on me at gunpoint. It is the only way I could avoid Bruce’s efforts to have men with guns sent to arrest or kill me for disagreeing with him on a matter of opinion only, if I should so choose.
Incidentally Bruce, if you would, please share your thoughts on having scrambled eggs (unborn chicks) for breakfast. Maybe others on this forum would like to learn more about how a simple socialist mind works.
Making quite a few unfounded assumptions there, aren’t we? Al simply said abortions are unimportant in his view, I disagreed, and suddenly that fact makes me – in your mind – a socialist who wants to use government to force you to do things at the end of a gun!??? That’s a leap of logic bigger than the Grand Canyon. A real non sequitur. I follow this site for economic purposes, and have no interest here in unrelated social debate.
No assumptions were necessary.
In the context of government, which was how it was presented, abortion should be of NO importance.
Now if you want to make presentations to your church group, or consul pregnant teenagers (with no external financial support via governmnet or other resources extorted from others at gunpoint)……..then power to you.
But when you promote ANY social issue, either for or against, in the context of as it pertains to government….. you step directly into my personal line of fire.
The root of the present economic problems are due to big government. My personal belief is that people who promote government involvement in peoples lives should be promplty beaten down at every opportunity, but I do not lobby to have government make laws requiring others to follow my personal beliefs.
I will add an observation as it pertains to abortion from an ECONOMIC perspective, which you seem to be on this economic blog for:
In my opinion, the social trends that began in the 1960’s (unemployement insurance, welfare, etc) unintendidly sowed the seeds of what I call the genetic genocide of the West.
Since these policy trends were launched, the failures of society, the weak, the stupid, the lazy, the sludge at the bottom of the gene pool, were not only encouraged, but financed to have more offspring than they otherwise would. Whereas the winners, or strong…….the smart, the ambitious, the enduring, were stressed and taxed to levels that discouraged them from having many offspring.
Embedded in this observation is a hint as to the applicabilty of abortion. If I had my way, anyone on any type of government assistance would have to agree to be on some form of birth control during the period that they (always voluntarily) draw such assistance. It is a free country, and they are free to decline government assistance if they desire to have more kids, and feel that they can provide the means to support them. I would also suggest that anyone who has been (again, always a choice) on government assistance for a period of say more than 3 years, should be required to be spayed or neutered to be eligible to continue to receive such benefits. There are too many dogs these days.
And I won’t start on the similar arguments with respect to Western immigration policies, as I suspect that I largely agree with Cecil Henry who has been spelling out the position lately.
For those of us who observe the moral breakdown of Western Society……..I have to ask in retrospect…….what did we expect?
Darwin has been shunned for quite some time. But real tough times are coming, and Darwin will be back, so we all better look busy. He’s got a lot of catching up to do.
good morning…..AH Cuba in the news…….Open it up to everyone…Fidel is gone.
Bobby, If Cuba is opened up to everyone it won’t be long before the Americans are telling them how to run their country because they think they are so smart even though they have made a complete mess of governing themselves. DT
There here……………
http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/silverleaserate.html
The manipulators that don’t exist are at it again. Oh, I forgot, they don’t exist even though HSBC and JPM have already been found out AND fined for LIBOR manipulation but they wouldn’t touch the PMs.
Dan
Richard thank you I have used stock charts in the past I just didn’t know you could change from daily to weekly. Now that I am there how do you use the wma what do you look for and then what does that tell you. Once again thank you for taking the extra time to help me and others who are trying to get better with our trades.
QE has to go somewhere so without a major decrease in demand via consumer demand or geopolitical event, stocks will have to go up. IN either case, Gold will go up up 1. via inflation, 2. fear.