Final Word from Big Al
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Sorry about the audio quality. We are on Lopez Island and it is quite remote!
KS,
Neither am I. But, today sure did smart…..I would be lying saying if it did not….THANKS, Big Al.
Yep Marc, it is what it is!
Big Al
I mean, what’s th point Keep?
Big Al
I agree with everything you say except I sold most of my Gold stocks 4 months ago in anticipation of this. The stocks are becoming ridiculously oversold and I am just waiting to pull the trigger. There are some great values out there now.
What is happening now happened 5 years ago. When the economy tanked, many people, including myself, thought that it was safer to be in Gold and foreign currencies. And where did everyone head to? The dollar! It is still perceived to be safe even though it has been printed into worthless oblivion. Mark my words friends. Gold WILL catch up and ultimately, will be a reflection of the amount of money that is in circulation. Monopoly® can be played with $10,000 in the pot or $100,000 in the pot. Same game. The only people who get hurt are those who stayed in cash and never bought real assets. Quite frankly, I am not the least bit fazed by this downturn. The only chart that really counts is the 10-year Gold chart. JD
JD,
Amen, my friend….
My sentiments exactly, JD!
Big Al
Al. we are dealing from a postion of little imput in a market that is the playground of the rich. Their success is based on manipulation and control. Until they are faced with a real serious set back like we have been time and again their will be little chansce that physical can over take paper gold as the key pricing factor.
Interesting comments, LGC. But, I think in the end we will be just fine!
Big Al
The markets can remain irrational longer than some people can remain solvent, but was not Keynes wrong most all the time?
The only thing I agree with him is “in the end we’re all dead.” I’m optimistic enough to hope someone’s working on that.
Sure some made a lot of money shorting the market today, I was not one, having lost over $50K today on paper, but I’m not selling, because there will come a time, I believe, when no precious metals will be available to preserve wealth. Period.
This game will end the day when someone backs up the truck to the Comex and is told “Sorry, you will have to accept fiat, because we are out of physical.”
I believe that will happen soon.
I don’t know when, but I track as best I can sales and movement of precious metals.
Some of the biggest dealers in the US have stopped taking orders for certain physical coins already. Some are taking orders, but warning of long waits for delivery. Other dealers have really increased their premiums. These are all signs of actrual or impending shortage.
That is a very curious situation regarding the dealers cfs.
Big Al
cfs is correct on the shortages……it has been in a shortage for at least 6 months….platlinum coins have been in a shortage for over a year……
Al:
Visited my friendly dealer this PM. His premium has gone up 25% and he is getting delayed shipping from the mint 30 miles away. The mint has increased the premium and he is merely passing the increase on. He is a large volume dealer selling into the future because he is out of physical AG which suggests to me that supply is getting somewhat short at the mint level.
See my comment to cfs, Dai Uy!
Big Al
Big Al, I have a question for you to ask Trader Rog.
I don’t trade futures, so I am ignorant of the mechanics.
Question for Trader Rog. “What do you think would happen if a large number of traders asked for delivery of gold the exceed the amount available?
I know there is an out for settlement in fiat.
But do you think there could be a manipulated drive down in price so that people would not go for delivery? i.e. is the loss greater with delivery having to come up with full cost, or taking a loss on margin, at being stopped out or liquidated?
I know you asked Rog, but I think that is what just happened….remember 2 yrs ago the 4-5 margin increases on silver in the comex over the course of 1 week!? and last yr at this time we had a $100 selloff in gold and $4-5 in silver in 1 hr? I am even long and short in anticipation of further volatility in he options mkt.
Good point, Proud
Big Al
I will pass this on, cfs.
Big Al
why fret over a day like today? I am happy to join the herd down in a very small short on the slv with a few puts….when we reach the bottom and silver has risen .50-$1 I will take my profits and go but both stocks and equities like slw! This decade I can see silver going to $1000 without hyperinflation as there is only 8-10 yrs left of economical mining and it’s a depleting resource.
Do you seriously think the banksters didn’t have a hand in this crash? profit from it, don’t bleed to death….as was the strategy of Mr. Gold’s father’s business partner (sorry to forget the name) if you want to bring up (a stock) and someone is shorting it, join them in it….then at the bottom buy aggrsssively so that they have to cover….it’s only a matter of time in pm’s
that is, “buy both stocks and equities”
You are more likely than not right, Proud!
Big Al
I meant “that” exceed the amount available.
Of course, driving the price down tends to shake out physical from the ETFs.
You called it CFS. Best comment I have seen anywhere today. Connect the dots now.
Hint: How do you confiscate gold without changing any laws?
Second Hint: Whose inventory was droppping like a rock early this week?
Marc Faber on today’s drop in gold:
great post….thanks….
Things that make me go hmmm!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/eight-wtf-divergences
Look at those divergences…..
Worried ?- you should be!
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-04-12/great-global-tax-grab-already-underway
Cfs – I too lost $60,000 today. It was a real drubbing. But I still have the same amount of ounces, and I think that is the key. I am not selling! We all need to remember why we bought gold in the first place, nothing has changed. If anything the case for gold is even stronger. Even after today I cant think of a better place to have your money. I am fully persuaded of this as you are. I think we are getting near the tipping point when this global economy starts to unravel and no amount of trickery, jawboning, propaganda can camaflauge it. They are losing to control. I am prepared to go down with the ship if need be. At the end of the day I would rather be holding gold then paper. Yes today hurt bad, and there could be more pain, but I have to think at some point truth will out. Now is the time to quit like men! Perhaps today was the final capitulation that was needed to flush out the ones who don’t have the courage of their convictions. Remember in the 70s before the final parabolic rise in gold it first corrected fifty percent. Only those who held on saw the really big gains. Today was brutal, especially for me since I am all in, but tomorrow is another day. Like Grant said after the first day at the battle of Shiloh – “had the devils day today, lick em tomorrow though” All I can say to everyone who is licking their words tonight is be right and sit tight, don’t let the bull throw you, the big money is made in the big move!
I really have to commend your courage here James. Not many guys would take a drubbing like you have with so much stoicism and then admit to such large losses. Most would not have your level of conviction and determination in the face of such outstanding one day losses never mind month after month declines culminating in a one day silver blowoff of 7%.
Fact is many are now throwing in the towel and it seems very unlikely to me that there will be a big buying frenzy come Monday morning. Oh, there will be fresh positioning from the vultures, uber contrarians and commercials alright but I expect more selling than buying after these kinds of losses and two nights for retail investors to digest the loss and sleep on it.
Rick Ackerman sure called this one right…..almost to the damn penny so far and if he says the shakeout is not over I am all ears. I cannot name one other person who made the same call. Certainly not with accuracy or confidence anyway. Most of the analysts we all read have just been pied pipers leading the unwary over the cliff with all thier idiotic ideas of what would make gold go up. Mostly feathers and fur.
Should this be a good lesson to everyone to just stop listening to the bleatings and prognostications of some so-called experts who have gotten it so badly wrong? It may time to think for ourselves and apply logic to the situation in the metals markets or hang on to those guys who called it right.
On that point I want to again question the whole theory of manipulation in the markets. Maybe someone can tell me how technicals can possibly see right through all the smoke and debris and come out being correct. The conspiracy theory makes no sense to me from that perspective even though the arguments are compelling.
In other words if virtually every analyst got it wrong on silver and gold price trends but Ackerman nailed it with technical chart analysis please tell me how his charts can sniff out collaberation and conspiracy in advance of it happening.
Makes no sense at all.
By the way, just a quick analysis of what happened here may be in line. As you all know there have been a lot of worries over the price of metals lately and fear has been fairly high. Even amongst those dipping their toes back into the market there were very legitimate concerns prices could reverse for the worse.
The bears knew it too.
With such tight stops being employed it would have been a cakewalk to start triggering a selloff that literally snowballed within hours into an avalanche of sales. When negative sentiments are this high the advantage goes to the bears who can take control of the market and I think that is exactly what we just saw.
Plus Paulsons forced redemptions. I hear his spokesman claimed he was not selling. EG..Paulson himself was not a seller…..and that may be true on the face of it but it does not answer the question of what his many subscribers are doing nor how much the fund itself was reduced as investors just became disgusted with the 26% losses year to date and finally threw in the towel.
No way we can have the kind of selloff we got without a major fund making a big move.
And if the previous post really did not worry you, how about this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/guest-post-11-economic-crashes-are-happening-right-now
Don’t want to say I told you so, but…..
http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/12/maguire-there-is-absolutely-no-physical-gold-for-sale/
I told you so…
Q.) Who is going to be the big PM buyers and when?
David, go to kingworldnews and read Maguire’s blog article.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39855.html
For those of you in England, scan down to find a discussion about a UK bail-in.
Al I think we need to say this the way it is this price move has nothing to do with people like me and you selling. Most silver stackers hardly ever sell let alone on dipps. These price moves are big bank A trading with big bank B. Fundumentals are temporarily irrelevant.
Suggesting the evolution of problems:
It can happen in the United States or Europe, and it can happen rapidly. I’m NOT suggesting it will happen this month or this year, but I do think we have reached a tipping point whereby the risk of a crisis in confidence and the risk of a banking and derivative collapse have substantially increased. If a financial collapse occurs, then some or all of the following should be expected:
Stock market crash
Bond market crash
Bank runs and bank holidays
Credit crunch
Massive money printing by the Fed and other central banks
Many more individual and corporate bankruptcies
Many more cities, states, and pension funds in financial trouble
Possible wage and price controls
Increasing unemployment
Much higher prices for gold, silver, and other commodities
Government will “do something,” and it will not help anyone but the financial and political elite and large banks.
Social unrest.
Read more at:
http://www.deviantinvestor.com/3658/3658/
Pretty hard to disagree as that is simply common sense from folks at least on this site.
We will discuss this topic on today’s DAily Editorial.
Although I was never a fan of “Social Awareness” investing today I felt not selling was making a statement. The question becomes when investing what is the bottom line measured in? Today I was happy to measure my bottom line in ounces instead of dollars. I will keep the measure and let whoever wants to keep the paper. When you consciously realize what you are doing may hurt you are not in denial…you simply made a choice.
Have you noticed…..
Many Places No Longer Accept the Dollar
For example, the Seattle Times reports that in Mexico, Americans are no longer allowed to exchange more than $1,500 dollars per month.
In India, the country’s tourism minister said U.S. dollars will no longer be accepted at the country’s heritage tourist sites, like the Taj Mahal. And the U.S. dollar is no longer good anywhere in Cuba.
China is moving in the same direction. The New York Times reports…
“Now, many shops in China no longer accept dollar-based credit cards issued by foreign banks… and foreigners cannot convert American dollars into renminbi beyond a given quota.”
Iran, of course, has already moved all of its reserves out of U.S. dollars, and Kuwait de-pegged it’s currency from the dollar a few years ago.
And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (the world’s largest futures and commodities exchange board), now accepts gold to settle futures contracts. Until recently, the exchange typically accepted only U.S. treasuries and bonds as payment.
The guys at the Mercantile Exchange obviously see the writing on the wall.
Again, this would have all been completely unthinkable 10 years ago, but today it’s a reality. And this trend is going to keep moving incredibly fast.
Just look at the actions taken by smart investors…
Bill Gross, who probably knows as much about currencies and debt as anyone in the world, runs the world’s biggest bond fund. He was quoted by Bloomberg not too long ago, saying:
“We’ve told all of our clients that if you only had one idea, one investment, it would be to buy an investment in a non-dollar currency. That should be on top of the list.”
Jim Rogers, one of the world’s most successful multi-millionaire investors writes:
“The dollar is not just in decline; it’s a mess. If something isn’t done soon, I believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s reserve currency and medium of exchange, something that would lead to a huge decline in the standard of living for U.S. citizens like nothing we’ve seen in nearly a century.
Are we as Americans really immune to the laws of economics and finance?
I don’t think so. And I’m not the only one saying this…
The dollar’s days as reserve currency are numbered,” reports the Financial Times.
And the Wall Street Journal recently ran a headline saying: “Dollar’s Reign as World’s Main Reserve Currency is Near an End.”
It’s obvious to anyone who has studied any economic history.
In every instance, throughout history, where a government has tried to inflate its debts away, it has ended in disaster.
As Jim Rogers says:
“History teaches us that such imprudent monetary and fiscal behavior has always led to economic disaster.”
This is why World Bank president, Robert B. Zoellick, in a speech at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, recently said:
“The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency. Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options to the dollar.”
And this is why the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published a paper calling for a new global world currency.
This is why big U.S. companies like McDonald’s and Caterpillar have begun introducing what are called “dim-sum bonds.” These are securities denominated in the Chinese currency (the renminbi) by non-Chinese borrowers.
In other words, two of the biggest and most successful corporations in America realize they would have an easier time raising money by offering their bonds in a currency other than the U.S. dollar!
Do you see where this is all heading?
The only issue I have with the hypothesis that the US dollar will be ruined is that everyone else in the majors is also devaluing at the same time. Europe plus England are in on the project along with China (massive credit bubble plus QE type interventions) and now Japan has finally joined the party too.
This theory begs the question that if everyone does it then can anyone fail?
Do you see what I am getting at CFS? I can understand the risk when only one single country is in the process of buying its own bonds and printing money but it defies logic that ALL of the worlds major currencies and countries might fail together.
I conclude that this will all come out quite differently than most believe and the way it will manifest is probably in a lowered standard of living for hundreds of millions in the West and a very deep depression in Asia.
It is why I believe that pensions will eventually be socialized in most of the major Western nations. We all know trouble is coming. Now just stop for a second and work through the math on how it might be resolved.
Seems obvious to me.
Of course I see where this is going.
Care to comment on reasons for the huge rise in the allotment of late in SDR’s?
I tried to use my debit card at my bank (Wells Fargo) and the message I got from the machine was “unavailable) This was on Saturday, go figure.
Yes, I see where all this is going and I realized that direction in the late 90’s.
Embry and Celente on goldseek radio
http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2013/04.12.2013/GSR-04.12.13-c.mp3
I just wish Gerald didn’t sound so crazy all the time. He just seems to be on the edge of “losing It” with some of his comments…getting all shrill and angry. Too much emotion for my liking.
I will add some info about what we did today in the competitor/CF pfoerrmance improvement class later today. I am too beat right now from my own workout to post it via my iPhone with my giant fingers. I just wanted to thank Jimmy, Joey, Maddie, Wendipedia and Kandi for showing up and making it a fun class to coach. You all did really well on your second workout if day! Way to push yourselves to keep moving!
Thanks for couigtbntinr. It’s helped me understand the issues.
If you take current government spending and divide by the number of workers in the US you get a number which exceeds the median income!
This not a viable way to run the country.
Thanks Big Al,
I too am not selling.
Have a great weekend.