Turmoil all around the world

February 22, 2014
Hour 1: 

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Hour 2: 

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Lots of turmoil all around the world right now, and we believe that the root cause is economic conditions. Venezuela, Argentina, Italy, the Ukraine, Thailand, and very possibly coming to a town near you. We discuss some of our concerns during the first hour of our Show.

We also discuss Libertarianism with Jeff Deis at the end of the first hour and into the first part of the second hour.

It looks to us like the resource sector stocks are starting to come back and during the second hour our “panel of experts” weigh in on this issue.


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    Feb 22, 2014 22:29 AM

    You can take comfort in the fact that right now the G 20 leaders are hard at work fixing everything.

    After they have their caviar, truffles, champagne and oysters they will sit down in cushy armchairs, light up their expensive cigars and decide what the price of gold will be.

    I did say they would be fixing everything didn’t I

      Feb 22, 2014 22:39 AM

      RICK RULE….who I consider to be one of the most genuine and sincere expert in the gold
      business ………GO HAVE A LISTEN… ..this weekends audio.

      Its everything I have been advocating here on this site since I’ve been posting.

      Briefly summing this up..the bear in gold is dead most likely. We have seen the worst.

      You need strong conviction to win.

      The biggest gains ever in PM’s are ahead….within 2 years most likely.

      People that become billionaires are not into spending Rick says he has met lots of them.
      This is important because it allows you to stay in the game. Instead of going broke.

      The biggest mistakes investors make paying for things that they don’t really need and
      then get spooked out of all their positions to finance their pleasures losing maybe once
      in a lifetime opportunity. MOST LIKELY TOO.

      RICK RULE SPELLS IT OUT WELL. Exactly how I have been trying to help others here for
      3 months since I’ve been here.


      Rick Rule……I’ve been drinking his Kool Aid for years. He said a year or so ago not to
      buy mining shares. He said again this year do not buy until tax loss selling is over.

      You want to be in heavenly profits you never thought possible….


      Most are locked out as the price moves up and still scratching their heads
      hoping for lower prices and lending a helping hand shaking those out of

      ITS THE WAYS OF THE WORLD….learn them or get mislead…..TO

      ……..NO MONEY LAND and a shrinking bank account.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:43 AM

        Typo..Rick said last year to buy after tax loss selling was over.


        Feb 22, 2014 22:54 AM

        Rick is a good friend who I have a lot of respect for!

          Feb 22, 2014 22:17 PM

          Ricks down in Carlsbad CA. Where I had my house right on the beach I sold
          in 05 at the exact peak in the SD market. San Diego peaked way before other
          parts of California. Prices are still below from where I sold.

            Feb 22, 2014 22:30 PM

            We both really like Carlsbad and Oceanside. Couple of great restaurants in Oceanside under the “lighthouse”!

            Feb 22, 2014 22:17 PM

            The best fish I ever had…ever 333 Fish house in that new hotel right at Oceanside
            Pier. WOW….is all I can tell you..Al. Had the Halibut and it melted in your mouth.
            Prepared connoisseur gourmet ….however….best I ever had. I’ve eaten at the finest
            joints in S. Cal. ….maybe I got a lucky meal at 333. Was with my family and the service
            was out of this world. Had a great. .great time.

            After Carsbad I love seaport village downtown San Diego so got a very good buy on
            a penthouse on the 34 floor of The Grand. New high rise the water views was out of
            this world. Anyway, sold it a year later for a very small loss. I almost…got to live
            there for free. But knew the market was going to tank further and 08 hit.
            Just got out in time. Now I’m sitting on a big spread. Solid investment just
            keeps appreciating. I believe good parcels of land will be a excellent benefactor
            of this coming inflation wave. Im strictly a hard assets guy. Never liked stocks.
            Like some just can’t get themselves to ever buy gold. Its hard assets or nothing
            for me.

        Feb 23, 2014 23:13 AM

        The bell was ringing at the bottom. The guy in the clip said to stay away from the miners in 2014. I thank him for his service (lol).

        On January 1, 2014 at 8:08 pm,
        Matthew says:

        CNBC will be just as wrong now as Bloomberg was in your 2012 clip.

          Feb 23, 2014 23:33 AM

          My next big trade is to average in over the next few months or weeks with taking up
          short positions in stocks. THE DOW COW….is on its way down in the next 18 months
          At least a 40 percent decline….cha ching $$$$$$

          Looking at REIT’s next for a short.

          HA….everyone is a bull complacent in these 2 markets.

          Averaging in on a short on stocks. …then maybe REIT’s.

          Also my short stocks will hedge my gold if it gets bad.

            Feb 23, 2014 23:42 AM

            BTW…..every decent rally I short.

            Feb 23, 2014 23:35 PM

            PLEASE NOTE….my short is not definite….will post if and when I do.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:51 AM

      Of course you did.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:58 AM

      LOL James

      Feb 22, 2014 22:53 PM

      Talk about an EYE OPENING interview—Alasdair MacLeod cuts through the headlines and shines the light on brightly on GOLD.
      Check it out:

    Feb 22, 2014 22:43 AM

    Great round table discussion in segment 6-8 Al
    Also liked the mix of discussion (macro view, stock picks, things to look at)
    Please do more of this

      Feb 22, 2014 22:55 AM

      Count on it Thomas!

    Feb 22, 2014 22:26 AM

    I consider myself a Libertarian, that said, it has always been a hard sell….similar to the pm story, people are stubborn and unwilling to change or think for themselves but rather believe what the education system teaches them. I also believe that the only solution to the economic problem is JOBS, productive jobs that can provide adequate income for comfortable living.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:22 AM

      ….. provide adequate income for comfortable living. – Private prisons provide adequate income, 3 meals a day, a bed, a cage to live in, close personal showers with a group rapists, murders, thugs of every sort. – Rand Paul, Ted Cruz philosophy if you can`t fight them join them < our hero`s in Congress. Debt is sooo good.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:46 AM

        Greg Hunter`s Friday wrap-up discusses Rand Paul, Ted Cruz debt talk is BAD, you negative guys out there should just stop talking about `our` debt situation, because its bad to say that, because, because ….. its about 4:16 minutes into program, in how its `now` bad to say anything about our national debt.

          Feb 22, 2014 22:58 AM

          Dennis, give me a couple of hours and I will be back to you with a comment. This sounds crazy and obviously interesting.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:56 AM

      I agree with you on all counts Bobby.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:14 AM

      Bobby said, “I consider myself a Libertarian…”

      Libertarian you say? Are you sure you didn’t mean librarian?

      I’ll let you boys in on a little secret. The first thing they teach you in lbrary school is that the first r in library is silent. When you go to the library go to the reference desk and pronounce the word library with the first r silent and at the same time wink at the librarian.

      The librarian will recognize this code word and allow you access to special collections not available to the general public.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:18 AM

        Please elaborate on this Bill.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:15 AM

      Bobby, companies are screaming for people,offering high paying jobs, many business opportunities in North Dakota right now.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:18 AM

        Office or labor?

          Feb 22, 2014 22:22 AM

          Everything you can think of Al, the place is booming big time. Alot of oil there.
          Canada has some booming spots too, the jobs cant be filled with Canadians so they import people, alot from the Philipines, but also Chinese for mining.
          I get newsletters that list employment opportunities with mining and energy companies, the list of companies looking for people is pretty long.

          I think what happens is alot of people dont want to move from where they are so it takes companies awhile to fill positions.

          Actualy, North Dakota and South Dakota, might be good spots to ride out these ruff spots coming. Except in the north, rents have skyrocketed.
          Shortage of houseing I guess.

            Feb 22, 2014 22:27 AM

            Not sure I would want to live in the Dakota’s.

            If I needed a job, that would be a different story if the gov’t would not support me!

            Feb 22, 2014 22:31 AM

            Reminds me, a poll was takin as to which state is the happiest state in the unioun, Hawii has been dethroned, its now North Dakots, South Dakota coming in #2.

            Feb 22, 2014 22:33 AM

            I have never been, but you would think unemployed people would be interested, maybe there is somthing to be said for living on food stamps, not sure I get the apeal, but a life without working is tempting to some people I guess.

            Well,,,,,what do we have ………143 MILLION ON FOOD STAMPS….,,,I am starting to see these guys in WHOLE FOODS…….what’s UP………..

    Feb 22, 2014 22:31 AM

    Bobby – define “adequate”and define “comfortable”

    There you go again falling into that trap

    I don’t necessarily mean you personally…but if the socialists fits wear it I suppose…

      Feb 22, 2014 22:04 AM

      I am talking the normal lifestyle, $200,000- 300,000 per year jobs. Lets face it we all can’t be fireman!

        Feb 22, 2014 22:22 AM

        Really, what`s normal. For most its abnormal. < 146 million Americans who can no longer support themselves. We are indeed screwed times.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:59 AM

        Those salary levels put a person WAY up the food chain.

          Bobby has been loosing site of reality in the last 3 years….He has been on the beach to long……………….he, he…..

            Feb 22, 2014 22:36 PM

            Yes Jerry relaxation is a bad thing! It’s all I am doing this weekend and it is scary how good I am feeling. Must be illegal!

            just remember….you have turned the corner on time….and an little reflection and RR are required…….

            Feb 22, 2014 22:46 PM

            Well I hope it illegal, because when i run out of money i want to go to jail.

            do not worry Bobby….YOU will not run out of money……but, the money may not be worth anything…………besides,,,,don’t you have sanddollar on the beach

    Feb 22, 2014 22:15 AM

    Of course it is about economic poverty, no jobs, and under-employemnt in the Ukraine……..However, since 2004, the corrupt Prez and Parliament have also ravaged the Constitution and have taken back what the people previously had a revolution about………I have had a native Ukrainien (who is informed) tell me that since 2004 all the big businesses were handed over to a small number of corrupt families that run everything………corrupt as hell……….

      Feb 22, 2014 22:01 AM

      Thanks Fred,

      This certainly merits more study on my part.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:30 AM

    While I love much about Liberterian philosophy, I decided on the Constitution party for the last election. While adherence to the constitution is very Libertarian, the Constitution party is much more aligned with my view on the issue of free trade which I believe is destroying the middle class. Libertarians, from what I have been able to find, believe in unfettered capitalism. But we see that that led to abuses such as child labor at the dawn of the industrial revolution. Working people were able to band together to negotiate a greater portion of what they produced and thus attain a greater living standard in this country. Allowing multi-national companies to set up shop in low wage coutries and flood our market with tariff free goods circumvents the delicate balance that took years to develop. This is how the great American middle class came into being. I have heard nothing from the Libertarian party on just how they would protect it.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:02 AM

      We will get a comment on this from Jeff, Joe L

        Feb 22, 2014 22:34 AM

        That would be great. Thanks.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:11 AM

    When you are the world reserve currency then monetary mayhem’s #1 export is political unrest.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:32 AM

    I am sorry, but when this stampede into the resource/PM’s market really, really heats-up….like Bob M….you will be able to throw a dart and hit a winner. That is why if you do just a little DD, you will REALLY do well….hey here you go…Timmons Gold…. Brazil Resources…..companies like this are ‘NO BRAINERS”….not investment advice…..dont follow me…just do a little work!

    Feb 22, 2014 22:39 AM

    I am sorry, BTW, I am WEARY of newsletter writers, get off your butt, and listened to A LOT of people…you will eventually see a multiple of juniors being mentioned consistently, those are the one to pursue..IMHO. The newletter writers want you to think that this is ROCKet science…it is to a degree…but common….if you really stick your head to the grind stone….your intelligence will lead you to some good companines….heck JAY TAYLOR is always giving you some good direction…how about, EURASIAN and RUBICON minerals…Sandstorm Gold (Nolan Watson)….sprinkle your portfolio with some these type of easy pikins and you will do just fine1 IMVHO>

      Feb 22, 2014 22:04 AM

      Agree Marc

        Feb 22, 2014 22:13 PM

        Beware you can make “Colossus”.
        You think your DD and confirmation from Mr. Watson is enough, but then you are proven wrong.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:44 AM

    Here is one more example. I bought one company BRIGUS gold on the fact that they have a “streaming agreement” with SANDSTORM. Why would NOLAN WATSON get involved with a DOG company…..sure enough Brigus was bought out just a few weeks ago….didnt make a lot money for sure, but it is a start……

    Feb 22, 2014 22:56 AM


    For years I have attempted to figure out exactly where I fit in the political spectrum.

    My own model may not work for all but works for me. It is based on a view of Thomas Jefferson’s political philosophy that “If men were angels, there would be no need for Government. On counterbalance however I subscribe to the theory that the government that governs least, governs best. My model is not precise nor totally objective as I insert my own values and views and ascribe the weight of each of them to fill in the blanks..

    Imagine a clock face with the extreme liberal view at 9 o’clock, a more moderate view at 12 o’clock, a very conservative view at 3 o’clock and a libertarian view at 6.

    I find myself floating around the clock often in between depending on the issue at hand but generally find myself between 1 and 2 o’clock on most issues but on fairly rare occasion, between 9 and 12.

    Depending on whose ox is being gored be it economic, political or social issues, the extreme positions at 9, 3 or 6 o’clock are a recipe for anarchy and the 12 o’clock position can also be a recipe for disaster for it can create an atmosphere of inaction when and where where action is often needed.

    Since I’m no stranger to hostile fire, fire away as you deem appropriate.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:43 PM

      It is precisely because men are not angels that they should not be given political power over other men.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:54 AM

    What are your thoughts?

    Are all the bought deals a sign of institutional confidence or just a way to cover some shorts without slitting their own throats in the market?

    Perhaps a bit of both?

    Feb 22, 2014 22:01 AM

    Cathty has her head on right?

    But she voted for obammie TWICE so how can that be?

      Feb 22, 2014 22:10 AM

      Hi Bill,

      First of all, with a K.

      Secondly, she would not do that again. She did not like either McCain or Romney as neither did I.

      I did vote for McCain and then wrote in Dr Paul.

      Kathy’s vote for Obama was not for the man. More on that later.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:02 AM

    What is Golden Dawn about?:

    Africa for Africans, Asia for Asians, White Countries for Everyone??

    Its White Genocide by policy and people are fed up. ITs destroying nations-by design.

    Racism is only racism when it is the people of the country trying to defend their ethnic interests, not when their anti-white ‘leaders’ defend theirs.

    At what point would anti-whites allow whites such as this the right to protect their ethnic interests, to not be displaced in their country and have their society destroyed– all just so they can look good for the camera. Moral grandstanding and PC prudery aside, one would not dare argue for the converse–that would be called Genocide.

    Anti-whites expect an entire race to disappear from the face of the earth without even mentioning, not even whispering about it.

    Nobody’s flooding Africa with Non-Africans and giving them free health care, affirmative action and special privileges.

    Only White Countries are doing it, only White children are affected, and only White politicians are allowing it.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:15 AM

    In principle, you make an interesting point as I personally cannot stand political correctness for the sake of political correctness.

    I believe in fair play for all.

    This is obviously a very touchy subject.

    I don’t believe you are saying that the actions of the Nazis were correct are you?

      Feb 22, 2014 22:39 AM

      The Nazis were only wrong because they lost. There was also whole heaps of religion involved with their prejudice. Gotta remember tho, they were not so prejudice they couldnt ally themselves with asians. They also wanted to ally themselves with the Turks. (1 million solders hung in the balance with that deal)
      I think most Nazis would have agreed with “whites in white countries, segragation I guess.
      Sounds bad I say they were only wrong because they lost, but had they won they would have written the history.

      Germany and the U.S. remind me of the Greeks being conquered by Rome, then procceded to have huge influence on Rome.
      Today, we obviously are dominated by a facist government, one of the Nazi goals Im sure.

      I like to think tho, that one day all the religious stuff and prejudice ends.
      I have had friends of many religions and races, I have found people to be pretty much the same.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:32 AM

        I can’t agree at all that it was because they lost.

        Some actions are simply wrong.

        I see your point, but I simply cannot agree.

          Feb 22, 2014 22:42 AM

          Al, thats the way it is, when we win we are right.
          Look at Jefferson, had slaves and spoke about liberty.
          I call him a pedophile rapest.
          Others have told me that it doesnt count because that was accepted then.
          I will never justify pedophilia in any way shape or form.
          I dont care if its accepted, Jefferson was a pedophile. Plain wrong.

          So, I see your point and agree, but the examples of what Im sayin exist today, Take Moses for example, his genocide is just fine, justified with the story a god said it was ok. I disagree, see what Im sayin?
          Had the nazis won, they would have been considered to be right.
          That was my only point there.

            Feb 22, 2014 22:24 PM

            Yep b I certainly do see your point. That is actually what I thought you meant.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:17 AM

    Bob Moriarty, with all due respect,
    you are so hell bent on your anti-American disinformation. To suggest 10,000 dead if it had been in the United States is complete rubbish spewing from your pie hole.
    Tell me ONE recent historical reason to substantiate your anti-American propaganda.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:20 AM

      I will contact Bob on this.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:41 AM

      Homeland security spying, buying a billion hollow points. Arming the post office.
      Police killing and assulting with impunity? Those might be clues.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:45 AM


      For starters, may I suggest Obama’s chilling effect on our First Amendment where he now wants to monitor newsrooms, violate our 2nd Amendment rights as determined by the Supreme Court and worst of all, his total violation of our 4th Amendment rights by warrantless searches and phony investigations into those he considers his enemies. So far, he’s not required us to open up our homes to quarter soldiers/ law enforcement by revoking Posse Commitatus (in concert with Congress) in violation of the Third amendment rights but get ready to have clean sheets in your guest bedroom should he decide to do so.

      Obama is not dumb; he has an agenda which does not set well with most freedom loving people.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:55 AM

    In the last 100 years some of the worst in the United States were
    LA riots Rodney King 53 were killed.
    Detroit riots 1967 43 were killed.
    Tulsa Riots early 1920’s 39 were killed.
    For Bob to suggest 10,000 is beyond the pale. It is one reason I detest when unsubstantiated comments are made. Why would he make them? No where in American history is this true. To me they are pure rhetoric.

    Also Cory says “it finally just boils over to the people when they don’t have jobs they don’t feel like
    they can trust their government and then they start to riot, sounds a lot like the U.S. doesn’t it?”

    Cory, seriously even during the Great Depression of the 1930’s and at the height of the turmoil in the U.S. during Jimmy Carter years
    people were disapointed but didn’t resort to wide scale rioting.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:36 AM

      The question Dave is, has it evaluated beyond that?

      I’ll tell you my friend, for the record, I hope you are right! And, that is the truth!

        Feb 22, 2014 22:25 PM

        I obviously meant ESCALATED

      Feb 22, 2014 22:39 AM

      Dave, you may have forgotten the Civil War. About 700,000 died over the issue of secession. Oh sure, history tells us it was about slavery but that was just part of the story. At its heart was economics and the desire of Southerners to maintain a lifestyle based upon agricultural policies that were reliant on cheap labour. This they would lose with the abolishment of slavery and thus the means to maintain a certain standard of living and rights they had become accustomed too. The fear was their production of cotton, tobacco etcetera would be priced too high for the market afterwards. It was a big enough threat to their economy and sense of security that secession became the obvious answer and thus war ensued. You have listed small localized riots in the above post. Do you not think that economics are at the heart of most major domestic conflicts though?

        Feb 22, 2014 22:27 PM

        Thanks for the sanity Bird!

        Feb 22, 2014 22:41 PM

        Bird, great post. I couldn’t agree more. The dictum, “always follow the money” on any issue almost always points you toward truth. Also, the industrialists in the north were a lot of what the civil war was fought about. They held the political power and were pulling the noose tighter and tighter around the south’s neck as far as duties, etc. The slave issue was a byproduct of economics and used to whip up fervor in the north for the war when it was waning.

          Feb 22, 2014 22:56 PM

          Agree Doc

            Feb 22, 2014 22:29 PM

            Excellent comments on the “civil war”, I thought it was a war between states tho.
            Not sure but I thought there was a legitimate way a state could succed.
            I thought Texes still had that option, obviously Im no expert on it, just what I thought.

            Thought it was excellent you guys see it wasnt all about slavery.

            Also, Bird. Im still pondering your thoughts about qe/tapering not being enough to cause all thats going on. If thats not all there is to it,all I can see is a ridle within an inigma. As they say. Might be beyond my pay grade.

          Feb 23, 2014 23:59 AM

          Thanks all. I think it stands to reason that looking off into the future we may see some diffficult times in most Western countries, including the US of course. Given that it is falling living standards and a loss of entitlements that are bigger triggers for upheaval than poverty itself, we can imagine problems arising as the contingent and unfunded liabilities begin to show cracks.

          I draw my conclusions in part from what I see around me today.

          I currently live in a very poor country. It is in fact in the bottom five percent of global wealth and GDP. Despite that it is peaceful here and the mood is upbeat and optimistic. They are seeing some of the fastest growth numbers on the planet here and despite very deep and persistant poverty there is not even a hint of social discord.

          How can that be?

          If poverty, poor employment opportunities and high inflation are drivers of negative social mood in the West then you might well expect a country like this to already be in flames. Nothing could be further from the truth. So I conclude it is the losses in income growth, declines in employment and opportunity that had always been taken for granted combined with reductions in social spending that are the real triggers for social mood to turn negative. This is an economic issue related to expectations not being met and the growing sense of deprivation over promises that can no longer be kept.

          In other words, it is what you are losing that brings on the anger, not that which you aspire to but have never had before. Why else would it be that in Italy, Greece, Turkey and so many other countries that are quite wealthy by most standards (certainly compared to Africa) that people take to the streets and violently oppose their governments when in countries that are near the bottom of the economic spectrum are optimistic of a better future and stoic about their circumstances?

          There are no social programmes in my part of East Africa.

          There are no pensions, no welfare, no food stamps, no veterans allowances, no unemployment benefits nor even free medical care for most. There is, in short, no social safety net except for some charitable handouts and World Food Programme benefits aimed at crisis areas as two examples.

          Official unemployment numbers in such a region are quite misleading for in fact all people must earn some income through the year as the state provides no Western style supports. This is utterly inconcievable for most Japanese, Europeans and Americans. But it is a daily fact of life here.

          The family in such a case is the final backstop and resources are shared at the community level with those unable to bring an income. So how the hell can these people feel so positive when average incomes hardly break the two dollar per day mark?

          There is no question in my mind that promises made in the past that cannot be kept will be the source of conflict in the future. What cannot be paid will not be paid. Simple as that. The troubles most Western developed nations now face is that they will be confronting serious shortfalls in tax revenues in coming years that mean social spending will be compressed and some programmes will face outright elimination.

          We have already seen reductions in SNAP and large cutbacks agricultural subsidies in the US in this past year. It is only a beginning though and so we should anticipate some backlash as the trend continues and cuts get deeper or if growth does not ensue to make up for current revenue shortfalls and deficit spending.

          Indeed, it is the annual deficit itself that needs the most urgent attention as that is where the cracks are showing in current time that warn us of a crisis coming in the future.

          I believe a serious social crisis looms where entitlement programmes are concerned. I am far less certain it will erupt in the kind of violence we have seen in some countries abroad though. We simply have more confidence and the resource pool is much deeper and better developed.

          It is nonetheless inevitable that some spending will face the axe though and that in other cases terms are going to be modified to restrict access. As an example it must seem a certainty that the retirement age will have to rise before that component of spending entirely bankrupts the country.

          Is the age of 70 too high? It is being done elsewhere already.

          The problem with reducing social programme spending though is that it is far too intimately tied to economic growth projections, credit, corporate revenues, domestic consumption and GDP such that it is almost taboo to make changes there.

          Nobody in his right mind wants to tamper with the key levers that are keeping the system afloat for it is well understood any dramatic changes there would inevitably lead to depressionary conditions and a probable deflation as the economy was robbed of millions of jobs and incomes thus declined. Incomes of course will virtually always fall as labour comes into sharp surplus.

          It should be obvious too that this thinking is substantially behind the moves to stimulate rather than tighten on spending and on this subject we now have ample evidence of how the different approaches to surviving a downturn have played out in Europe and America.

          The Europeans have set firm deficit targets for EU participants as one example. This has amplified the negative effects of their current slowdown and driven an era of falling inflation as unemployment spiked whereas in the US we saw initiatives that expanded spending on both the fiscal and monetary sides of the ledger.

          For example, federal unemployment benefits were extended rather than reduced in time or scope to ensure those without work did not fall as burdens to the state level. Food supplements and similar programmes were increased substantially. Relief was offered to some cases on mortgages and rates and meanwhile training programmes were ramped up. In the latest initiative we are seeing that the minimum wage will be increased for all Federal contract employees. Over on the monetary side we hardly need to describe the lengths to which the Federal Reserve went in adding liquidity to the system while attempting to stimulate asset growth and stem the decline in home prices.

          The European experience and that in the US could not be more stark and we still await a time when the ECB will finally be permitted to address the sharp contraction in economic activity through its own bond buying programme and similar liquidity interventions. The intransigence of the Germans is stupifying. I have often said their extreme reluctance to permit more freedoms for the ECB almost amount to an act of war on their neighbors. But this is economic warfare… shots wil be fired.

          In the meantime, social unrest is building across the whole region. The extreme levels of unemployed youth are a brimming tinderbox of fuel that just awaits a match to ignite an inferno. We are already seeing unrest and dissaisfaction build that should be setting off alarm bells. Their is a growing momentum of younger people to embrace political parties that did not even exist just a few short years ago and also a rising resentment against immigrants and foreigners combined with an emerging extremism in the political arena.

          If none of this sounds familiar to readers then you probably do not follow history very closely. The conditions under which social upheaval are brewed are cooking before our eyes and it is these undercurrents of discord we should be most fearful of. In that regard I certainly prefer the approach that has been taken in the US over what we see in the EU. Most here will likley disagree but my view is that we have bought time that with luck, will have maintained social stability (despite all the headwinds) until growth can resume once again.

          Would any of you really prefer 50 to 70% youth unemployment and a mood of boiling resentment that now exists across the Atlantic? It portends to be explosive if those in charge cannot make a better accomodation. It also portends a change in who governs across many countries in the region and those changes could well lead to an end to the Euro experiment and the common currency.

          But I have digressed from my original theme.

          Although our future history is not yet written I do not currently see the same risks facing the US as I do for our friends across the ocean. Not yet anyway. Despite deep indebtedness and a future that is sure to be stressful when the bulk of unfunded liabilities come into play, there is still political stability and a belief amongst the general public that we will successfully work through the troubles that still lie ahead of us.

          In other words, there is still confidence. And that is perhaps the biggest strength despite the serious headwinds.

            Feb 23, 2014 23:33 AM

            Sorry by the way if the above does not by implication suit the popular narrative that the dollar must crash and burn, the bond bubble implode violetnly, society in America will be torn assunder and an exonomic apocolpse lies ahead. In fact there are far more reasons why the dollar will appreciate, that bond prices will actually rise in the next year or two and that the economy will gradually improve (despite vociferous oposition to all those ideas). The most compelling reasons are going to be the many stresses that will be imposed on everyone else’s country that will lead to outcomes quite unseen by the dollar doomer camp. That means that the Yen, Euro and Yuan all face more troubles than the dollar and by definition will be dollar positive. It also suggests capital in the form of bond buying and treasuries could shift substantially in favour of the US as troubles erupt elswhere. As I have said many times before, I am very positive on the fortunes of America even if that thinking runs contrary to most who come to this site.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:05 PM

      But never in the history of our country has there ever been such a wholesale, full scale attack on our Constitutional rights…………………..

        Feb 22, 2014 22:28 PM

        I do think it started before him although maybe not on such a grand scale.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:00 AM

    Dai, there are alot of people that still love Obama, and when he is replaced the next president will have a few years grace from the people.
    He might even run on “change”
    The changes Obama implimented will most likely remain and people will learn to view it all as normal.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:37 AM

      I certainly hope not, b

    Feb 22, 2014 22:01 AM

    Bob anti-American?

    Bob was the youngest person ever to be a pilot in the Marines. Heck, he joined the Marines when he was 15 or something like that so he could fight with Pappy Boyington for cryin’ out loud. Even flew his plane under the Eiffel tower shootin nazis.

    Bob is 100% right. It is the people running this country into the ground who are Anti-American.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:39 AM

      Under the Eiffel Tower shooting Nazis?

      Feb 22, 2014 22:41 AM

      I would definitely not call Bob Anti-American

    Feb 22, 2014 22:13 AM

    I am quite aware of who he is.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:15 AM

    Bill, You might wanna ask Bob about the shootin nazi part.

    Al, forgot to mention, excellent round table again and always enjoy Bob.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:05 PM

    The commodity shorts have been obliterated……….

    From Trader Dan of February 24 2010……he write:

    “For some reason, commodities in general have been soaring recently. Shorts are getting obliterated across the entire sector with a vengeance. You name it – coffee, sugar, hogs, soybeans, wheat, corn, silver and of course gold. Frankly I am unclear as to what the main driver is for this sudden interest in the commodity sector. I have heard the usual chatter that equities are overvalued and commodities are undervalued, and there is some truth in that, but it seems to me that the weakness in the Dollar of late ( due to the weakness in the recent economic US data) has apparently caused a mass move back into the sector as part of another carry trade”.

    Like I keep saying boys….this is the trade. Believe it or not. Just like a light switch got flicked on at the start of the year. It is why I am now bullish metals and leaning to a trend towards higher inflation and possibly gradually rising rates in early 2015. The gold/commodity relationship is closely related in my opinion although I remain unable to identify exactly why it is happening now except that many commods had clearly hit major bottoms. Perhaps it is just a technical reversal that should be obvious to all……maybe it is a collateral based spec trade……..or perhaps there is a deeper meaning.

    Commitment of Traders Info — Trader Dan

      Feb 22, 2014 22:23 PM

      Prices get so over sold and cheap….throw out the charts.


      Rinse, wash and repeat…..nothing unusual ……been going on forever.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:37 PM

        Next week is options expiration, so we can expect volatility driven by the market makers/manipulators.

        But the charts daily, weekly, monthly are trending up and we’re riding on the high side of their channels–maybe forming a new channel. Also, the speculators are coming back into the market even as the commercials sell (probably to make payroll), ergo, interest is returning to the PMs, and that is good.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:30 PM

    Viktor Yanukovych is gone. Wow. I am late to the news and just caught it on the web. Fantastic news. He was driving the country into deep divisions and perhaps even civil war. Thank God saner heads have prevailed and they will work to smooth the incredible discord of the last months. Nobody needed the sh*t that was taking place there. Not the West and not the East either.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:42 PM

      Not sure who was/is underwriting this latest ‘deep divisions’ that is on its way to ‘civil war’/revolution.

      Also, Re: Seg 1: Hard to believe the ‘democratic west is a free and open society’ as your guest suggests given the Patriot Act.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:52 PM

        Of course I agree BJ that Yanukovych is merely the face of an agenda taking place behind the scenes and that we do not know most of the details. It is perhaps just symbolic that his parliament has thrown him out though and tells us others have seen through a dark motive that is unseen to outsiders. The odds that peace will be restored have just increased though and we should be grateful for that. I find it hard to imagine that the downward spiral will worsen as a result of todays decisions.

          Feb 22, 2014 22:12 PM

          I hope you’re right, but I think that’s the best case scenario.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:44 PM

        Figure of speech from Glen.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:43 PM

      Hit the wires yesterday.

      Read Peggy Noonan’ s editorial in today’s Wall Street Journal and see what you think.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:59 PM

    Full Suport for the new lady leader Tymoshanko , of the fatherland party . She is 100% for Ukranian people, free from Russian domination. The majority are Ukranian speaking [difference is small from Russian] and Russia maintains a right of return for any russian speaking person from Ukraine who wants to return. Tymoshanko was just freed from hospital where she has been serving a seven year sentance , she served 3 years already. She has a serious back problem and was under guard in hospital. She will probably be running for office in May . Best to all peoples of Ukrainia , Poland and Slovakia , who have suffered under Great Russian Domination . S

      Feb 22, 2014 22:48 PM

      Thanks Scott.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:16 PM

      Plus she looks just like princess lea. How can ya go wrong with princess lea?

        Feb 22, 2014 22:53 PM

        She ended up gaining a ton of weight. But in her prime, oh yea

          Feb 22, 2014 22:16 PM

          I guess they didn’t call her the gass princess for nothing.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:03 PM

    Great interview with Glenn Downs.
    Learned more in that 20 minutes than the last 20 days in main steam media blah, blah, blah.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:49 PM

      Todays show was fascinating. A lot of really interesting material. I had no time to write much though….finally got out of the house after three weeks of feeling pretty poorly. Walked a couple kilometers to get the rust out. It aas nice and sunny so it picked up my spirits.

        Feb 22, 2014 22:51 PM

        I am feeling pretty bunk also.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:19 PM

    Al, recent history and current events prove that governments can’t legislate morality; and in fact the unintended consequences of such legislation is an increasingly more amoral society.

      Feb 22, 2014 22:50 PM

      Than llkm s BJ. I do agree with you.

    Question BIG AL…………..John Kaiser….in DEC 2011 ,,,was in RARE EARTHS,,,and not in gold and silver stock…only physical…..has he changed his mind…., HE MENTIONED ZINK, anything else…………..thanks…………..ootb

      Feb 22, 2014 22:02 PM

      He did not Jerry.

      Hi should be on the Show this week. We will ask him.

    Feb 22, 2014 22:21 PM

    PIMCO makes a convincing case that above any other consideration including the growth of gold-backed ETFs, central bank purchases or government actions like India’s import curbs, the number one factor influencing the price of gold is the real yield on 10-year US Treasurys:

    “Based on our study, the regression shows that, all else equal, a 100-basis-point increase in 10-year real yields has historically led to a decline of 26.8% in the inflation-adjusted price of gold.”

    Johnson goes on to say that the correlation is so strong that the gold price can be used as a predictor of interest rates:

    “Using this framework, consider the 15% price drop in gold in mid-April following talk of Fed tapering. This move predated the sharp move higher in yields in the fixed income market by two weeks. Over the month of May, 10-year real yields rose 57 bps. Even though the markets moved at different times, the size of their moves over this period was remarkably consistent with the historically observed 27-year real duration. In hindsight, we believe the move in gold gave an excellent early warning of both the direction and magnitude of the move in rates.”

      Feb 22, 2014 22:18 PM

      “Based on our study, the regression shows that, all else equal, a 100-basis-point increase in 10-year real yields has historically led to a decline of 26.8% in the inflation-adjusted price of gold.”

      Dang, interest rates could easily go up a point or two.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:11 AM

      Thanks B. That is an interesting study so i will be sure to follow up on it if I can locate the article. So if I understand this correctly, a price rise in gold will result in falling rates on the 10 year. But how far could that trend concievably run with rates already being so low?…..And more to the point, what crisis in the economy would send Treasuries soaring and thus provide an impetus for gold to move higher?

        Feb 23, 2014 23:28 AM

        Secondly, if bonds are truly in a bubble and rates will eventually begin rising for the next decades until the interest rate cycle again completes then does this not suggest gold will be a very long term decline and thus a short across many years? So then I also need to ask….how low could gold fall if their theory is correct?

      Feb 23, 2014 23:08 AM

      OK…..I found the article. Here is the link for anyone else interested in Pimco’s analysis.

      How Gold is Currently Being Priced. —

        Feb 23, 2014 23:30 AM

        I thought the article was a little long for posting the whole thing.
        Im terrible with links too.
        I got it from Ed Steer.
        Casey Research, he has alot of interesting stuff every day.
        Free to subscribe.

        I was hopeing to get some opinions on their study.
        The way I read it was rates go up gold goes down.

        Maybe they can both go up at the same time?
        First time in history we have this much debt.
        Gold owners might start to see interest of their loans as just more paper,gold is still money,seems logical gold gets even more valuable.
        So, maybe both can go up together.
        No idea, just ramblin.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:08 AM

    warren bevan on miners,”I’ve been getting a lot of question about trading the miners and my
    thoughts remain the same.
    Miners are coming off major lows and I am pointing out ones who look
    best to members but I am not trading them yet.
    For now, these miners coming off historic lows should be bought with a
    long-term timeframe in mind.
    We will come to a time when these are the momentum stocks who lead
    the market but that is not for a couple years or more from now.
    By that time these miners will be hundreds of percent above where they
    reside now and those will be great gains for those who can hold from these
    levels but at that time we will see these stocks really accelerate higher and
    make fast money for us.
    For now, the fast money is not in the miners rather, the leading stocks
    and some healthcare and biotech stocks are where the action is.”

    Feb 23, 2014 23:53 AM

    @ Birdman
    Good posts up above (early Feb 23).

    Got me thinking about what Armstrong has said many times; – corruption causes riots, but there will be no rioting when bellies are full (paraphrased).

    As you say, it’s losing what we have that makes us angry. When people start with nothing, and gradually make headway towards achieving some acceptable standard of living, most learn to be content with that. However, take that away through corruption and greed, then look out.

    When politicians, lawyers, hookers, and hockey players make more than those who pay them, the full bellies will waddle in the streets.

    Speaking of hockey players: as I type .. top of the 3rd; Canada 2; Sweden 0 .. playing for GOLD!

    Here’s a handy chart from ’73 to ’09 comparing bond yield to gold.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:55 AM

      Above chart taken from this article:

      -correction: chart only goes to ’07

      Feb 23, 2014 23:07 AM

      Hey thanks Irwin. It was on the long side so I am surprised anyone read through it. I guess we will have to keep our expectations in line in the future as the money slowly runs out. You know they are going to have to reduce pension entitlements. No way around it….there just is not enough money to pay the promises. This is our last chance to save and invest for ourselves so we don’t need to depend on the declining handouts in old age.

      Go Canada! Sweet gold medal win for men’s hockey. You Canadian by the way?

    Feb 23, 2014 23:07 AM
    Feb 23, 2014 23:42 AM

    A long discussion on the gold price, hedging and production and the available float.

    Well worth listening.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:56 AM

    “According to the Russian business daily Kommersant, they cited a source in a NATO country’s delegation back in 2008 that reported Putin had told President George W. Bush:
    “You understand, George, that Ukraine isn’t even a state.”


    “Strategically, Crimea, the southern part of Ukraine on the Black Sea, was part of Russia until 1954. At that time, Crimea was given to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, supposedly to strengthen brotherly ties. However, the majority of the population were Russian – not Ukrainian! Therein lies part of the problem. This “gift” of Crimea to Ukraine would be like the USA giving Texas to Mexico and Texans would suddenly all be Mexican. Would they “feel” Mexican or American?”
    ~Martin Armstrong

    Feb 23, 2014 23:27 AM

    Ukraine certainly was not soviet dominated until after Stalin. There are still enough Ukrainians around to remember What it was like before and after.

    Here’s a little bit of history. Note Stalin killed about 7,000,000 Ukrainians in Western Ukraine. You seriously think they want Russian domination again!
    You think they don’t know Putin was ruthless KGB!
    From internet:

    ……A propaganda campaign was started utilizing eager young Communist activists who spread out among the country folk attempting to shore up the people’s support for the Soviet regime. However, their attempts failed. Despite the propaganda, ongoing coercion and threats, the people continued to resist through acts of rebellion and outright sabotage. They burned their own homes rather than surrender them. They took back their property, tools and farm animals from the collectives, harassed and even assassinated local Soviet authorities. This ultimately put them in direct conflict with the power and authority of Joseph Stalin.

    Soviet troops and secret police were rushed in to put down the rebellion. They confronted rowdy farmers by firing warning shots above their heads. In some cases, however, they fired directly at the people. Stalin’s secret police (GPU, predecessor of the KGB) also went to work waging a campaign of terror designed to break the people’s will. GPU squads systematically attacked and killed uncooperative farmers.

    A World War II era photo of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin (on right) with top aide Viachislav Molotov who helped implement the 1932-33 famine policy in the Ukraine.
    But the resistance continued. The people simply refused to become cogs in the Soviet farm machine and remained stubbornly determined to return to their pre-Soviet farming lifestyle. Some refused to work at all, leaving the wheat and oats to rot in unharvested fields. Once again, they were placing themselves in conflict with Stalin.

    In Moscow, Stalin responded to their unyielding defiance by dictating a policy that would deliberately cause mass starvation and result in the deaths of millions.

    By mid 1932, nearly 75 percent of the farms in the Ukraine had been forcibly collectivized. On Stalin’s orders, mandatory quotas of foodstuffs to be shipped out to the Soviet Union were drastically increased in August, October and again in January 1933, until there was simply no food remaining to feed the people of the Ukraine.

    Much of the hugely abundant wheat crop harvested by the Ukrainians that year was dumped on the foreign market to generate cash to aid Stalin’s Five Year Plan for the modernization of the Soviet Union and also to help finance his massive military buildup. If the wheat had remained in the Ukraine, it was estimated to have been enough to feed all of the people there for up to two years.

    Ukrainian Communists urgently appealed to Moscow for a reduction in the grain quotas and also asked for emergency food aid. Stalin responded by denouncing them and rushed in over 100,000 fiercely loyal Russian soldiers to purge the Ukrainian Communist Party. The Soviets then sealed off the borders of the Ukraine, preventing any food from entering, in effect turning the country into a gigantic concentration camp. Soviet police troops inside the Ukraine also went house to house seizing any stored up food, leaving farm families without a morsel. All food was considered to be the “sacred” property of the State. Anyone caught stealing State property, even an ear of corn or stubble of wheat, could be shot or imprisoned for not less than ten years.

    Starvation quickly ensued throughout the Ukraine, with the most vulnerable, children and the elderly, first feeling the effects of malnutrition. The once-smiling young faces of children vanished forever amid the constant pain of hunger. It gnawed away at their bellies, which became grossly swollen, while their arms and legs became like sticks as they slowly starved to death.

    Mothers in the countryside sometimes tossed their emaciated children onto passing railroad cars traveling toward cities such as Kiev in the hope someone there would take pity. But in the cities, children and adults who had already flocked there from the countryside were dropping dead in the streets, with their bodies carted away in horse-drawn wagons to be dumped in mass graves. Occasionally, people lying on the sidewalk who were thought to be dead, but were actually still alive, were also carted away and buried…….

    They remember what communist rule was like!

      Feb 23, 2014 23:43 AM

      Yes CFS. I posted a link to that article a couple days back. Here is the full text again:

      Stalin’s Forced Famine 1932 to 1933

      Feb 23, 2014 23:54 AM

      who are you arguing with?
      yourself as usual?
      I don’t see anything that disagrees with your caustic opinions.

        Feb 23, 2014 23:03 PM

        Irwin, in section 3, Bob Moriarty specifically states everyone in the Ukraine wants to be tied with Russia.

        I was specifically giving historical information to refute his statement. A lot of folks posted on the blob after my comment, otherwise it would have appeared further up.

        Perhaps if you bothered to listen more carefully to what is said on Kereport, you would have understood.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:50 AM

    Sorry, Bird Man, but I thought it was worth stressing the historical treatment by Stalin, because I think that affects how older Ukrainians think.
    Unfortunately the youth do not remember. All they know is that the economy is in trouble and they blame those in Government.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:03 AM

    The real common cause of world conflagrations:

    demonstrating the real incompetence of governments.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:06 AM

    There are increasing reports that the office of HUD is being run as “a criminal enterprise” under Obama with hundreds of billions of dollars disappearing or “unaccounted for.” No audited accounting in 8 years”
    Similar lack of accounting in Defense budget.
    For those that forget The day before 9/11, The Pentagon admitted to $4 trillion in “accounting adjustments” i.e. $4 trillion missing in financial statements.
    Since 9/11 this has not been accounted for. The excuse being that records were lost in 9/11 pentagon attack.
    Believe or not. Coincidence or Crap?
    BS, if you ask me.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:20 AM

    While everyone wonders and doing their best to use their own wisdom searching
    for answers what lies ahead. No, you don’t have to look to far. God has told you
    whats coming if you would only listen. The signs are clear as purified water and
    examples of societies who were completely destroyed written in Gods Holy Word.

    We have a world in which we live now that most have decided they don’t need God
    and do whatever they want. Call it rebellion or just failure to have anything to do with
    God because they have a better way.

    Not only that acting as they have a form of holiness and goodness but possessing few of these quality characteristics. The deceitful ways of man. However, we are all living in sin
    and are very thoughts are most of the time sinful.


    God is furious with the fact most refusing to repent and ask for forgiveness of
    thier sins. Since society has turned their backs on God there is NO REPENTANCE
    OR ASKING FOR FORGIVENESS everything is going to get very chaotic until it burns
    to the ground.

    God has said it wont change because people will choose the path that leads to
    destruction. Also, our world is so very fragile with everything now connected
    if one goes down takes everything else down with it.

    The lies of the world will continue because not one person alive or that has ever
    lived besides Jesus was perfect holy and good. There will not be peace and the
    world has now turned their backs on God with very few repenting.

    YEARS. Could be even months but its sure to come.

    Scoff in disbelief……AT YOUR OWN PERIL

      Feb 23, 2014 23:41 PM

      I totally agree with your assessment. This is a simple fact to me.
      The arrogance of mankind has never been greater. Humility is sure to follow.
      Mankind proud in their scientific knowledge and financial “engineering” has totally rejected their maker. Thanks for the post HH.

        Feb 23, 2014 23:09 PM

        Ya Dave…its sad. But we who are believers will inherit everything
        God owns if we want to be sons and daughters to the highest.

        We have a Father in heaven who created us and as sons and daughters
        we are royalty in his Kingdom and served by the angels for eternity.

        tragic part of all.

        Thank you Dave. ….if only a few people realize they have a inheritance waiting
        for them and inherit The Kingdom Of God ….all my time and efforts are worth
        it. Don’t get me wrong I’m just a dirty rag that needs the blood of Jesus to wash
        me clean so I don’t face judgment. I am the chief of all sinners.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:44 AM

    Plato was kinda smart too, I think he wrote about wherever men go they destroy everything.
    Julius Ceaser was doing what he could to contain “moneychangers”,
    a few years after he died the idea got popular somehow.
    Few people ever followed good ol Julius’s example that Im aware of tho.
    I guess some people have the gift of seeing the obvious.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:50 AM

      The problem of being so very wise in the world can’t avoid judgment in..

      GUYANA ! bad way to go for eternity.

    Feb 23, 2014 23:33 PM

    If a person doesnt judge he wont get judged.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:46 PM

      Knowing right from wrong is not being a judge. We need to judge ourselves
      first. If you are wise in the world and you ignore God and do not repent you
      will face judgment. Blasphemy of the Holy Spirit is a unforgivable sin.

      God says the wise will be made foolish. Also God had no respect for man.

      God made life possible and created the world. NOT MAN… is about to
      destroy it.

      BUT YET MAN WANTS TO TAKE ALL THE CREDIT…..not only that he insists
      on doing it his way.

      ITS NOT GOING TO WORK…..PERIOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! !

    Feb 23, 2014 23:12 PM

    HH, somebody asked you in an earlier thred’ “who are you argueing with?”
    Eons old “pagan” saying, “We are all teachers, and we teach what we know until we’ve learned it”.

      Feb 23, 2014 23:22 PM

      Wrong guy ….B.

      That was Irwin to CFS. OK……posts above us…..LOOK !!!!!!!

      more disinformation.

      Anyway….sometimes you have to be firm.


      a good teacher need not be too soft. Never going to sink in

      Just wastiing your time

    Feb 23, 2014 23:47 PM

    oops, sorry.
    “oops”, something you dont want to hear under local anesthesetic.