Politics, Markets and Investor Sentiment

October 25, 2014

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*Disclosure: This is Dan Kurz, investment advisor for Naples Asset Management.  My remarks today are general in nature.  They are personal observations based on global financial, economic, and political developments and trends.  My observations are topical on the date made and reference asset valuations, interest rates, and inflation rates as of the same day only.  I am not soliciting business.  I would welcome follow-up discussions with listeners/potential clients as regards strategic portfolios should they be interested and assuming my firm is duly licensed in the listener’s state.

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    Oct 25, 2014 25:15 AM

    I may not be a smart Politician like the President, but…..

    There are now over a hundred deaths a day reported from Ebola in West Africa.
    With a reported kill-rate of 70% that means there are over 40 survivors a day, or approx 15,000 a year.
    So, given that most of the survivors are NOT aged and infirm, why are the the survivors being recruited by the US and trained to clean hospital rooms, provide food for the sick and even some getting nursing training?
    Even at half the wage of an army grunt, this wage should appeal to many Africans and it sure as h*ll beats sending 4,000 US armed forces over there.

    Just thinking…..

      Oct 25, 2014 25:35 AM
        Oct 25, 2014 25:12 AM

        Very good point Professor.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:38 AM

      I, of course, meant why aren’t the survivors being recruited.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:11 AM

      Very good point Professor.

      Oct 27, 2014 27:56 PM

      Excellent point!
      When all else fails, logic prevails. If only it were applied to public policy, but that would require a crew change in the wheel house of government..

      Oct 25, 2014 25:57 AM

      Seems to me there is a big conflict in ideas in the gold/silver camps. On the one hand there is this insistence that metals markets are being manipulated to suppress prices and on the other we hear that the Fed wants and needs the dollar to fall thus showing as inflation and a weaker dollar. Well if gold is really being suppressed then the dollar would rise. Does not not conflict with the widely held belief that the Fed needs dollar weakness? And why would the Fed support the dollar by driving down gold when it really wants some devaluation to occur? The gold camp cannot have it both ways.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:38 AM

        Since there is no real or official link between currency and gold or silver coin or bullion there is only one reason to suppress the metals apart from profits derived from short selling and that is to manage perception regarding the value of the currencies in an environment where the people think the currencies are backed by gold or silver when in fact they are not. If the mass of the public ever found out and truly believed the truth the official currencies would be worth less than toilet paper and gold and silver would rise so high that even real estate would look dirt cheap next to an ounce of metal. That is with out hyper inflation and just by virtue of recognizing the truth that the public are being cheated.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:06 AM

        I maintain that it’s not the Fed manipulating the gold market. It’s the bullion banks who are fleecing the smaller trend following funds by whipsawing the markets back and forth.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:36 AM

          Now, that makes perfect sense. You and I can now agree on this point. The banks and the Fed are in fact working at cross purposes in the deployment of liquidity. While there was a fairly widespread belief the Fed was pulling the strings in the background that idea never sat well with me. I think it is that the agendas of the banks and Fed are not entirely in line with each other.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:20 AM

          As I commented on this forum Gary, I completely agree with you.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:18 AM

        I believe that the current opinion about gold/silver price suppression is more of a case of major financial powers suppressing the price concurrent with shorting the commodities. The end result being significant profit taking.

        The concept of a major suppression of the price of gold/silver because “the government can’t afford the societal concepts that result from a high gold/silver price” is loosing steam.

        It is all about profits don’t you think, Bird?

          Oct 25, 2014 25:44 PM

          AL I think that argument is still part of the equation when inflation is winning the tug of war and the USD is closing on support. Of course right now the USD is beginning to cause major problems to the deflationary side of the line so as the cot shows, jpm et al are ready to cash in on their long positions (particularly silver) which in turn will help the fed keep the USD in line).

          Oct 25, 2014 25:14 PM

          Yes Al. It all comes down to money in the end.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:25 PM

            Money and definitely power, Bird!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:47 PM

            Absolutely no question about it.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:46 PM

          Al, I am not sure why you think government don’t manipulate gold price. I don’t have to remind you that they openly manipulated bond and mortgage. They also buy future to boost stock market as Gary said that government gets your back. Why they leave precious metal alone? There are plenty of evidences that they manipulated gold even several FED and government admited it, e.g. the other big Al. They cannot do it openly like in 1960s since their gold is running out. They find it much more successful to do it secretly since this convince people to their side. Jeff Christian described this very well. If you are a friend of Ron Paul (I believe you are), please ask him. He told me that government manipulates gold price in person last year while he was doing a talk on free capitalism in Calgary. You trust him or your government? If you cannot talk to him, you can talk to Jeff Deist since he described on your show in detail why government wants to suppress the gold price and you agreed with him. Are you back tracking it? I know you might try to cover your rear or avoid conflict in the forum. But If you really think so, you should try all you can to defend the government since you get the perfect one. No government don’t manipulate markets especially under the constant stress to get re-elected, maybe except US.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:50 PM

            If there is a nasty person on your forum and you don’t want conflict, you can choose to avoid him but you should not alone with him. When next time when you come back and admit government suppress the gold price, you get a serious credibility problem.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:04 PM

            Notice my earlier response. Trust me, I will seriously re-visit this issue shortly, Lawrence.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:52 PM

            Sorry for the grammer since I have to run.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:26 AM

            Surely paper gold is how the physical gold price is suppressed. By increasing the number of claims on an individual ounce the actual physical price does not have to rise to meet the demand, and indeed depending on the amount of claims on each ounce the price could actually fall by altering the amount of paper receipts.

            By being indiscriminate about the difference between paper gold and physical gold the price can be manipulated both up and down, and suppressed.

            Say, for example only, there are now 100 claims on each ounce of gold in a given ETF, surely if that were ended, there would be 100 people looking for their ounce of gold. One could challenge that by saying not that many people genuinely want the physical so it might be a lower number of claimants, but would it be the other 99 that could not get their ounce of physical gold?

            If there were no such thing as multiple claimants on an ounce of gold what would the real price of physical actually be?

            Oct 26, 2014 26:03 PM

            I will definitely re-visit this with Jeff; Glen; and, a couple of politicians.

            I said what I said because I think that the really important factor here is that the major financial institutions are controlling the price of gold because they can. They are doing it to profit from shorting in my opinion.

            I have to wonder why the govt. would care about such a small market when it has much larger fish to fry.

            Thank you for your comment and I will re-visit this macro question. Look for an editorial on it this week.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:16 PM

            Al PM is not a small market. If you add all the gold around the world together, it worths nearly $6.5 trillion dollars, 50% more than US money supply.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:27 PM

            Thanks Lawrence,

            As I said earlier, I will seriously revisit this issue within just a few days. All the best.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:55 AM

      The folks that think the silver price is not rigged should read… The MOAMOPE by James C. McShirley. This article was posted in August and is still hasn’t changed to this day.The worlds silver supply can be paper traded in one day? Something doesn’t pass the smell test. Here’s the proof.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:30 AM

        The folks that don’t think the silver market is rigged simply don’t think.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:22 AM

          Matthew, you are a pretty smart individual.

          Don’t you think it is all about profit taking? Sure makes sense to me!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:11 PM

            As with gold, too much uneconomic selling, Al. There’s plenty of evidence if one has the desire to look and energy to understand. The powers that be have been manipulating interest rates for a very long time and manipulation of the monetary metals is part of the program.
            Does it matter? Yes. For the investor, it spells opportunity that wouldn’t otherwise exist.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:42 PM

            Interesting thought, Matthew

          Oct 25, 2014 25:20 PM

          This doesn’t even count the waterfalls.
          Virtually every evening for the last 3 years at precisely 6:00 PM EST something very odd has happened: Comex silver offers swamped the bids to the tune of a 3-10 cent decline. For this to happen for three consecutive weeks would be strange. If it were to happen for three straight months it would be bizarre. MOAMOPE can only describe when it occurs for three straight years. It’s a veritable Algopalooza! Silver has had a near-iron clamp imposed on it commencing with the access trade reopen. How severe is this iron clamp? From September 1, 2011 to the present, 621 out of the 744 6:00 PM access trade opens have been lower. All manipulation denialists take note: that’s an astounding 83.5%.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:40 AM

      It is common practice in every country to form interest group to coordinate actions and protect company’s interest. There are Silver User Association which devoted decades to lobby government to keep silver price low, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Professional Petroleum Data Management, URISA, GITA, etc. There are tens of thousand around the world, Some of them are world organizations. Since Keith is well recognized around the world, some companies may follow him. But I don’t think most can afford to do it since they are trying to make ends meet and sell every ounce to survive. Since most silver producers are outside of US so Keith is free to make his calls and slowly getting them converted. As for whether he will get prosecuted, I feel we don’t need to worry. Lawyers will take care of it. Keith still has freedom of speech. Every country will protect its industry and citizen. US always try to force its will on others but most of the effort fail. One example is that they require foreign financial institutions to report American accunts to IRS. It is ignored by most countries and others just give finger to Americans by banning Americans from doing bisiness with them. In a command economy, government imposes its will on industry but I hope US has not reached this level otherwise its own economy ceases to function. A more common practice in growing economies is pro-business.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:35 AM

        The sad fact is that that gold and silver is bought most in the newly industrialized counties but the price is fixed in US and UK. Apparently China has realized this and made concrete steps to achieve pricing power. They even allow future and option in gold and silver which is banned in any other market. They need the fire power. It is foreseeable that price will be jointly made by balance of power. I hope India is coming to play as well but it seems to be under the mercy of the west. China needs a lot of silver so the death of silver industry is not in its best interest. They also need to rely on gold instead of the fiat currency of its rival to anchor it’s currency

          Oct 25, 2014 25:24 AM

          And Lawrence, China remains the elephant in the room!

            Oct 26, 2014 26:48 AM

            Big Al… CME is another. An example would be 5 margin hikes in 2011 to quell the trend. Why does the gold price get smashed soon after the CME lowers the margin on gold? There is profit taking and there is changing the rules to suite the outcome. The logical outcome is no one will want to enter the paper market. 100:1 ratio of physical to paper is quite a stretch. Derivatives will break the banks up, when it is time.

            Gold and silver producers should set the prices for their own products.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:14 AM

            The idea that the state can set the price and business has to obey is the essence of central planning. This takes away the incentive for business to operate so they either scale down or close their doors and therefore causes shortage. Eventually consumers suffer.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:19 AM

            When I was child, everything was rationed in China. One person gets around half pound of oil and half dozen eggs a month. This is all the state run business cared to produce. Private business did not exist. There was no incentive for people to do anything. I was in the capital so we got more than other places.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:05 AM

    Saudi Arabia???? Come on. Israel and AIPAC distorts American interests and politics to such an obscene extent that making a comment like this on Saudi Arabia is ridiculous.

    Come on Al. AIPAC and the ISrael lobby are a huge problem. We just had 10 years of war in the Middle east from it. The war alone cost probably 3 trillion dollars.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:26 AM

      I will go back and revisit my comment as, unfortunately, I don’t know which one you are referring to. We recorded that segment on Thursday.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:27 AM

    Re Seg 5 Bob’s use of the word ‘pimping’ is correct. But what’s new? For the truth is that all our politicians constantly pimp vast swathes of the electorate, who in turn readily collude in the process. For by being pimped people feel pampered. With elections due here in the UK next summer we have the same old issues getting fought over: NHS budgets, housing finance on offer for those who get only deeper in debt as a result, education for all that include useless degrees for non-existent jobs while carrying the millstone of uni-debts, employment figures that include millions working zero hours contracts, even as the severely disabled are being made eligible for the minimum wage.
    Deep in his soul Obama may or may not have a philanthropic streak, although as all cynics know his greater goal is to pimp the Democrats cause.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:03 AM

      Andrew, when I think of Britain these days I see it as a phony economy, correct me if I’m wrong but what is there about England that allows them to maintain the economic lifestyle that it now enjoys. I know about London being a premiere financial center but for the life of me where does Britain get it’s wealth.They export nothing that I can see other then a few luxury cars that nobody wants anymore, they have some oil in The North Sea but they maintain a military presence around the globe that must be paid for with fiat pounds. London is under increasing pressure in their banking services especially from the Asian nations. I think your country is in deep doo-doo.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:59 AM

        DT, this only partially answers yours and my question. Max Keiser is forever banging on about our whole economic system being based on a giant Ponzi scheme with the bankers ripping us off while the people sleep. At least a few of you guys across the Pond seem to be alert as to what is pending. One good reason for my wife and I buying a house right now (having lived in freehoild vicarages most of our life) is to empty our bank account, which (1) pays no interest and (2) might easily start a bail in on depositors’ funds, since depositors offer the first port of call in the event of banks going belly up. Cyprus after all was but a trial run for what stands to follow on a grander scale.

        Although dated Herman Kahn’s foretelling of a utopian peace is, to my mind, precisely where we’re at in the UK. See below. Most of the great British public are now sedated on a diet of pulp soaps, game shows and sports at every level PM Cameron wants to introduce a ‘Snoopers’ charter’ where any opinion voiced in opposition to the main one might be deemed an arrestable offence! Meanwhile the Church carries on blissfully agonising over women bishops, gay marriage, while diligently praying for all those poor folks suffering in the trouble spots of the world!

          Oct 25, 2014 25:32 AM

          Really Andrew, “opinions voiced in opposition to the main one might be deemed an arrestable offence”?

          Can you provide some sources?

            Oct 25, 2014 25:30 PM

            Al, our Home Secretary Teresa May’s wish is to see a counter-terrorism bill passed supposedly to take on ISIS (Incidentally Mossad has been known to refer to itself as Israel’s Secret Information Service!) But this counter-terrorism bill – widely referred to as a Snoopers’ charter will extend to ban non-violent ‘extremists’ of whatever hue. Presumably if one expressed an opinion that certain politicians as war criminals this would be enough to get oneself arrested.


            Oct 25, 2014 25:34 PM

            That Andrew is absolutely terrifying to me!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:49 PM

            And speaking of ISIS was the recent airdrop of munitions to them in Syria all a dreadful mistake? View first 3 mins of Alex Jones show.


            Oct 25, 2014 25:53 PM


            I think that the jury is still out on this one. Not totally sure, but I think that it might be.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:57 PM

            Not on the fact that the US has been funding terrorists since way back as Hilary C herself admits in the last minutes of the u-tube clip!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:21 PM

            Well of course. It all depends on how you define a terrorist.

            Do I personally condone this. Nope!

          Oct 25, 2014 25:41 PM

          Andrew de Berry (Rev),

          So-called “bail-ins” involve uninsured deposits and bondholders not insured deposits. In some of these bail-in plans it is even stressed that covered or insured deposits are to be protected. And it is very important for any country to protect insured depositors for obvious reasons. Iceland protected the insured deposits with the exception being foreign depositors. Cyprus also protected the insured deposits. Insured deposits in the U.S. are also protected.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:06 AM

            Thanks JMiller. Despite the so-called protection provision of depositors’ sums (upto £85k is allegedly safe), in the final analysis of a bank going bust our deposits are unsecured. With the recent exposure of HSBC racketeering (and whose share price has tanked) High street lenders could go to the wall overnight.

            Andrew………..I think you have reason to be concerned, just like everyone who thinks they are going to be covered by FDIC in the event of a derivative collapse of one of the major TBTF banks…………………………….jmho………Remember , the govt. is here to help……………………

            Oct 26, 2014 26:12 PM

            Very little reason to be concerned.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:37 PM

            I think Al and Cory should have a segment completely dedicated to Bail ins and to how we the public/investors can protect oneself.

            Maybe touching briefly on topics such as

            1. Differences between secure and non secure deposits
            2. Examples of secure deposits
            3. Limit of deposits insured from fdic and cdic and others.
            4. My personal favorite “The three forms of holding a stock”. 1. Street name 2. DRS
            3. Physical certificate “By far the safest way in an event of depression or confiscation of banks deposits.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:00 PM

            Fair enough, Glen.

            What is so stupid……………everyone has already BAILED IN,, with the contribution of their money at 1% or less interest rate return………….

            very little reason to be concerned , equals very little return on capital…..

            Oct 26, 2014 26:02 PM

            Right now my only concern is return of capital, not return on capital.

            if you are concerned with” return of capital”……you should be concerned with money in the bank …with a guarantee from a bankrupt nation…..with a TBTF lending institution which is over their heels in derivatives exposure……………………….just saying…..

          Oct 27, 2014 27:33 AM

          Ever read the boy who cried wolf?

      Oct 25, 2014 25:28 AM

      And, of course, he believes in “his cause”. My only point here is that I do not.

      Oct 27, 2014 27:42 AM

      From the US Declaration of Independance:- “The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world”.

      PERFIDIOUS ALBION to the end

    Oct 25, 2014 25:35 AM

    Agree cecilhenry. Pro-Right Israel is NOT Israel. It’s pro-delusion.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:45 AM

      What does Israel have to do with the fraud, corrupt, worthless, good for nothing UK economy???? May that island sink to the bottom of the ocean and carry all with it.

      Two of your friends, Muslim converts, killed two Canadians this week. Being Muslim, you ignore it. If they were Jews you will say that Nutunyahu told them to do it. You are an evil creature.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:06 AM

        Seems both of us spent too much time in England, James!

        Oct 26, 2014 26:16 AM

        Thank you James. I don’t know where you’re connecting Israel with ‘out worthless good for nothing UK economy’. As for calling me ‘an evil creature’, it’s a good job that Almighty God does the judging, and not yourself.
        Read Miko Peled’s book ‘A General’s Son’ if you want some perspective on Israel..

        Incidentally Al please be diligent in monitoring some of the personal insults that can hatch like serpent eggs on your site.

          Oct 26, 2014 26:55 AM

          Yes Andrew, it is wrong to call people evil as five of you did to me back on October 5th.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:24 AM

            And you know the reasons for that don’t you BM……..? When Bob Moriarty called you not just a fool but ‘an evil lying foo’ he did so with just cause, given that you’d gone all out to slander him and others.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:20 PM

            And Bird does not do that anymore, Andrew. Live and let live my friend. I will take care of James.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:36 AM

            “Incidentally Al please be diligent in monitoring some of the personal insults that can hatch like serpent eggs on your site”. Andrew de Berry (Rev)
            And again…..your words come back to bite you on the arse. Ain’t irony fun?

            Oct 26, 2014 26:27 AM

            BM You’ve lost and deep down you know it.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:24 PM

            Common Andrew,

            You are a man of the cloth, no one loses when they change for the better.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:41 AM

            Could you PLEASE write something interesting. How are your book sales? 😉

            Oct 26, 2014 26:16 PM

            I don’t see that happening anymore Bird. (Fortunately!)

          Oct 26, 2014 26:08 PM

          Thanks Andrew,

          Note that I did respond to your earlier e-mail. As soon as I come across this comment I will eliminate it. He knows better than that.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:22 AM

            I see James’ comment is still in place Al. Besides better that he apologises.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:44 AM

            Thank you for asking after my books BM. The next one has a special relevance for any suffering from NPD.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:53 AM

            Who said I was trying to make a profit?

            Oct 27, 2014 27:36 PM

            For what it is worth, Andrew, the comment was totally irrelevant to the subject of this site and was removed.

            Oct 28, 2014 28:51 AM

            Al James’ obnoxious comment has not been removed., A

    Oct 25, 2014 25:49 AM

    Jim Rickards article “In the Year 2024”

      Oct 25, 2014 25:09 AM

      Will he be writing a fiction series soon? Much faster to write.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:16 AM

        He specifically said it is fiction. Since he never wrote fiction before , most people think he is predicting even with delimiter just before the text

          Oct 25, 2014 25:43 AM

          My point was he makes his money by writing, and he would do better with fiction.

            ditto…….BOBBY……….it is about books and tapes………..what a joke………this is like an AMWAY and everything else the sheeple fall for………….

            Oct 25, 2014 25:32 PM

            Actually, in principle, Amway is not a bad deal!

            No, I am not a dealer. I just think that it is an interesting example of capitalism!

            You better study the example a little closer…………

            Oct 25, 2014 25:12 PM

            I don’t think he makes much money on book selling compared to his other income. He is very famous wall street guy.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:12 PM

            I think he is doing it for the future of US

      Oct 25, 2014 25:55 PM

      I deal in facts not fiction. Jim Rickards fiction really has no chance of happening the way he fantasizes.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:08 AM

        I think he was just flexing his creative muscles. And we know he loves to write. I kind of enjoyed his take on the future. There are nuggets of truth in there that are already being manifest such as how personal freedoms are being eroded.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:19 AM

    Will the perma-bulls buy or sell at silver $15.00? This will tell the tail of the future.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:42 AM

      The majority of those who are dumb enough to sell at $15 have already sold.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:46 AM

        We shall see if history repeats.


          my ditto was to going under Matthews comment, but, I guess I could ditto Bobby’s comment also……..But, I would say, that I think silver is way undervalued, at this point…JMHO……………………………………J…………………………

            Oct 25, 2014 25:07 PM

            I agree Jerry, $17 today is a much better deal than $17 4 or 5 years ago. The dollar is a terrible measure of value.


        Oct 27, 2014 27:37 AM

        I’m sure the dumb enough to sell at $15 who have already sold (your words Matthew)

        ….will also be smart enough to buy in at even lower prices.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:45 AM

    “The Fed has your back when QE is on. The Fed does not have your back when QE is off” — Peter Boockvar.
    Best one liner in the show. It is food for thought. There may not be new money being conjured in existence but the past efforts are all still floating around out there. The setup we are seeing currently is that the Treasury market is being supported by significant capital flows from abroad against a backdrop of deflation that has been telegraphed by falling commodity prices.

    So it is not necessary for the Fed to engage in buying treasuries and that portion of QE can be dropped without any ill effects. In the case of MBS we should know by now that a large portion of what were available have been mopped up by the Fed already and the risks taken off the ledgers of the banks and placed on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.

    More QE would entail coming up with something new to buy.

    Could it be student debt for example? How about infrastructure bonds and State debt? I do not think it will be so easy to just create another round of QE without having a source of debt to consume thus propping up credit markets further.

    And that is the point of QE is it not? That the Fed will absorb risk and thus create room for fresh borrowing and lending in a more stable environment. As far as whether they have our back or not it remains to be seen how the past liquidity is injected into the system.

    Certainly the major banks could keep engaging in buying up equities as a means to create a floor under price and thus provide a support. But how far does that go before even they are not willing buyers?

    It seems to me there is an expiry date on what these novel mechanisms can do to keep this game going. So Peter is probably right and we had best keep that in mind. US equity markets will need to be self supporting from here on out.

    As Japan continues to suffer and Europe keeps slipping into recession (depression) there are expected to be fairly significant capital inflows into the US that will both prop the dollar and continue to support asset markets for the foreseeable future.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:26 AM

      Regarding the question of where the demand for stocks will come from when QE ends this month, Goldman Sachs believes that corporate buybacks will be strong in Nov. & Dec. Another broker-dealer believes under-performing hedge funds will be buying with both hands. Both are likely.

      The biggest unanswered question in my mind is how long this cyclical bull market can continue.

      Since Custer’s Last Stand secular bear markets have had three legs down—without exception. In every case but one (the Great Depression) the last leg down marked the lowest point in the secular bear. I believe, as John Mauldin and others do, that we are still in a secular bear (with two powerful cyclical bull markets inside of the secular bear). So, when does this cylical bull end and a new and final cyclical bear market take us to the ultimate bottom from which a new secular bull market can begin?

      Robert Prechter (Elliot Wave) believes that a new cyclical bear market began after at the recent market peak on September 19. It seems like Doc and Rick may be in this camp. Harry Dent certainly expects a monster bear market, but I don’t think he’s said it’s here yet. In this last week, the Casey Research has gone “all in” on an imminent crash call.

      Charles Nenner expects the turn to happen in the second half of 2015. This is Peter Eliades’ base case as well altough, on Septembe 17, he saw the possiblility of the final market top within days. (He was allowing that the impending downturn would be a nasty correction rather thatn a final market top.)

      I find Gary’s work most compelling. We’ve reached an intermediate cycle low with another bull run at least into April next year toward a blow-off top.

      No one knows for sure, but I believe that 2015 will be the year of reckoning when a new cyclical bear market will begin and this cyclical bear will take us to the bottom of the secular bear market that began in 2000. As Gary has suggested, it will be a nasty time for the global economy.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:50 AM

        I don’t think we are in a bear market in stock market in nominal term. It might be in real value. With massive money creation, deflation is an illusion. The effect of trillions of QE money and zero interest rate is still fermenting. We have a long way to go, including QE4ever.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:18 AM

      Anyone who thinks this market is headed back down quickly isn’t paying attention to what’s happening.

      This is the strongest rally out of an intermediate bottom I’ve seen since the 09 bottom. The NASDAQ 100 is within spitting distance of new closing highs as is retail and the transports. Biotech is already at new all time highs.

      Intermediate cycles just don’t top after one week. It takes multiple weeks for sentiment to rise far enough for the cycle to roll over. Even if this was going to morph into a left translated cycle it would still rally for 4-6 weeks before topping. The market will easily make new highs in 4-6 more weeks.

      This is setting up very similar to 1998 when the market bounced back very quickly from a severe correction. It confirmed to the market that there really was no risk as the Greenspan put was in place. It created the conditions for the market to enter the bubble phase of the bull market.

      That bubble was predicated on the assumption that tech stocks really didn’t need earnings. This one will be built on the belief that the Fed really is omnipotent and that they can prevent the market from ever entering a bear market again.

      Both assumptions were, and will be proven wrong. If stocks enter a parabolic phase it will eventually collapse like all parabolas eventually do and nothing the Fed does can stop that. All they can do is try to prevent the parabola from forming, but it’s probably already too late for that.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:24 AM

        I should also note that the combined commercial index short positions in the COT reports are now at the lowest level since mid 2014. They are actually threatening to turn positive.

        That is a big indication that the smart money is turning extremely bullish at the same time everyone else is trying to call a market top. Usually it’s not a good idea to stand on the tracks in front of these guys. More often than not you get run over…just like the bears have gotten literally crushed the last two weeks.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:35 AM

          Correction: Mid 2012

      The FED, has everyone’s BACK………………….BACKED INTO A CORNER…………

    Oct 25, 2014 25:56 AM

    Segment 8: Wow Al, I am really surprised by your comments. I thought you knew more about politics than that. Glen has hardly glossed over how deep it goes but I assure you that as he is inside he knows far more than he is saying.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:38 AM

      So which comments are you surprised at, Bird?

        Do not forget ,,,,BIG AL, wanted to vote for HERMAN CAIN……(joke)………………

        Oct 26, 2014 26:25 AM

        This one: “Glen I hate to say it but that adds a bit of credence to, you know, the idea that maybe there’s a relatively small group of people who are actually running the show. I don’t know. I wouldn’t find that necessarily to be that out of line. You think I’m nuts?”
        Of course you are right Al, and no, you are not nuts. Why do you even doubt yourself or say you don’t know? We all know. Some of us know better than others.

          Oct 26, 2014 26:15 PM

          Thanks Bird.

          And a very sincere thank you to you for not putting others down.This site is very important and we all have to keep negative personal emotion out of it.

          I believe that you are a good person who, like me, occasionally simply gets pissed at others. I have found that getting that way accomplishes absolutely nothing. It has been very difficult for me to avoid it, but I am getting better.

          We have to get together some time. If you ever are back in B.C. let me know and I will definitely make it happen.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:57 PM

            Sounds great Al. I will definitely look you up.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:51 PM

      On a similar note, if you have the time Al and you haven’t been convinced yet, PLEASE do watch as it would be interesting to see if Glenn and Co will EVER acknowledge the truth

        Oct 25, 2014 25:55 PM

        I will take the time to watch this, Jay, as it does raise an interesting question that Glen and I have talked about. Thanks my friend for the link.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:25 AM

    Where’s Bo?

    Round up the usual suspects

      Oct 25, 2014 25:51 AM

      Bo s busy calling for $3000 gold by the end of next week

        Oct 25, 2014 25:40 AM

        Bo done a Boo-Boo!

        Al says he was correct for 3 days. But that is not good enough because that is not what the guy was talking about. Bo called for a trend change, not a 72 hour rally. If I see 2000 gold by year end I will eat my hat raw with a little salt and pepper. Even 1550 gold is an unrivaled sunny and optimistic view.

        Obviously I am not worried. Both those calls are preposterous given the outlook and sentiments and Bo’s religious seven day count system is so deeply flawed it is not even worth listening too.

        But the gold-bugs are desperate.

        So desperate that they now support Cartels and manipulation by the miners as an antidote to their failed theory that the Fed is suppressing metals! Ha Ha Ha. Those guys don’t see the hilarious irony that they now support the very thing they claim to hate! I suppose they have come over to the dark side.

        They have really been reduced to grasping at thin straws though. That’s how it looks anyway. Gold bugs urgently need salvation. Even breaking the law will do since nothing else has worked so far. All the wild wasted theories and ideas of the last four years about silver have done absolutely nothing to enrich. The bulls who hung on are bleeding money and look very foolish to their friends and families. Their accounts have hemorrhaged.

        But one fine day they will be right! One day they will be hero’s in their own minds again.
        Meanwhile, every thin reed drifting down the river is now their support lifeline and flotation vest since they proved they just cannot accept the world does not care about precious metals these days and the sun does not revolve around their doom theories.

        The gold bull is dead. Maybe Bo will give them some hope. They really need it now. Urgently.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:43 AM


          All I said was that for the first three days of the week he was correct. Give credit where credit is due. I did not say that I believed him to be correct permanently. In fact I do not. That is simply my belief. I thought and still think that his call for $2000 gold was silly.

          But that is my personal opinion.

          Remember, I listen to everyone and take my own personal actions.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:24 PM

            Of course Al, I was not criticizing you. I was put off by the weakness of Bo and his lack of thought when he made his case in that interview last week. He really did not seem to have any insights. Just a count system that makes no sense.

          Honey BOO BOO, ….just got cancelled…….sign of the times……….

      Oct 25, 2014 25:39 AM

      He was speaking at the Silver Summit in Spokane.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:35 AM

    How long can the fedster funny money keep the market afloat?

    Oct 25, 2014 25:14 AM

    There’s a huge problem looming on the horizon regarding gummit pensions.

    City, county, state, federal…it’s huge. At the local level the way they are dealing with it is to get local tax and fee increases and it’s working. They scare the Shiite outta the sheeple by telling them the choice is raise yer taxes or will let your house burn down and thieves shoot you ’cause there’s no money for cops and fireman. So the sheeple pass the tax increases or bond measures.

    They never say if these people didn’t have pensions representing 90% or more of their highest year’s salaries for life there’d be plenty of money for funding.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:03 AM

      Pension funds and insurance companie are in a pickle. They either starve to death or jump in to the frying pan. Government employees all count on the pension for survival after they retire. They cannot save money after the pension premium deduction and other deduction, which take more than 50% from their pay cheque. They don’t need to do it either since they are promised with a good pension. It IS their saving. I used to work with government so I know. Eventually, FED has to print the money to top it up, otherwise nobody will work for government.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:19 AM

        Take a look at this

        Plunder: How Public Employee Unions are Raiding Treasuries, Controlling Our Lives and Bankrupting the Nation

        Public employees have become the new American elite. In the past, Government workers earned less money but had slightly better job security and benefits than Americans working in the private sector. These days, government workers not only earn more than other Americans, but they have vastly superior benefits, including pension plans that often allow them to retire as early as age 50 with 100 percent or more of their final year’s salary. These pensions often to $100,000 a year and come with cost of living adjustments and free lifetime medical care. Getting a government job and sticking with it is like winning the lottery. This plundering of treasuries, made possible by aggressive union tactics and spineless politicians, results in higher taxes and massive debts that ultimately will be borne by our grandchildren. The current situation is “unsustainable.” The problem goes beyond finances. Government unions protect even the worst public employees from accountability. Schools don’t attempt to fire incompetent teachers-and union protections make it nearly impossible to even fire ones accused of abuse and other misdeeds. As government gets bigger and more powerful, government officials have more uncontrolled power over the rest of us-to enrich and protect themselves at the expense of the public good. The public’s servants have truly become the public’s masters.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:55 AM

          Yet, the beneficiaries of the loot will say with a straight face that theft is wrong!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:16 AM

            Some how the beneficiaries of the loot can con the sheeple into passing local tax increasee and bond measures.

            They scare the public and brow beat them into tax increases and bond measures. They want to make the public feel guilty and selfish for not raising taxes and increasing borrowing. (Hell, they make bonds sound like free money.) They say, “Raise yer taxes or we’ll let your house burn down and let the thieves shoot you ’cause there’s no money for cops and firemen! And no money for schoolz…do it fer da childern or you’re just a selfish pig meany!”

            Oct 25, 2014 25:11 PM


            Oct 25, 2014 25:09 PM

            Good comments. I used to work with Canadian provincial government so I am not sure about US. However, since I work in oil gas sector so I do know similar type of work is paid a lot less in government. This problem becomes acute in recent years. That is why the highly qualified ones like me got disgusted and moved to private industry even I feel the work is more interesting and it is vital to provide an environment for safe natural resource production. Compared to other industry, Canadian government workers are paid slightly less but security is a lot better. The problem is not over payment here but it is the lack of accountability and qualified people. A LOT of people are hired and busy doing nothing. They rather waste money than paying people well. How can government regulate companies with poorly qualified staff and how can they protect the public interest if they can not understand what their industrial counterparties are doing. It becomes more of a road block to the industry. I hope they cut staff and do better job.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:37 AM

            Great comment Lawrence, many thanks!

          Oct 25, 2014 25:47 AM

          I personally cannot disagree with any of you thoughts on government, unions, etc.

            BIG Al.,,,,YOU are just trying to cause trouble……………(he,he)…….j…..

            Oct 25, 2014 25:29 PM

            I guess.

            I just don’t believe in emotional thinking.

            What do you think about my response to Mr. Dillon?

            I will get back to you on that one………j…………..

            Al,,, I think you have some very good thoughts concerning your response….I agree, we should not rely on GOVT. for all the hand outs at others expense… …..Most of the people on the dole, should not be receiving the federal hand out. Orphans and widows, over the age of 60, per the scriptures……….this is about as simple as it should be..

            Oct 26, 2014 26:10 PM

            And about as true as it should be Jerry!

            Al,,,,,,thanks for a great show…..and thanks for letting us heckle you….best j…..

            Oct 27, 2014 27:47 PM

            You’re welcome on both accounts, Jerry!

      Oct 25, 2014 25:45 AM

      Great point Ebolan!

    Oct 25, 2014 25:15 AM

    Re segment 4 – That’s right. No “rosey colored classess” unless yer a bankster, or a fedster or a gummit employee! If yer just a tax serf get back to work, now!

    Oct 25, 2014 25:16 AM

    They cannot save money after the pension premium deduction and other deduction, which take more than 50% from their pay cheque.

    You’re joking? Try looking at what the state employees in Colliefornia (as Ahnode callsit) contribute to their pensions. Nothing like 50%, nothing even close to 20%!

      Oct 25, 2014 25:24 PM

      Maybe Alberta, Canada is different with California. We had (when I was there) pension premium around 17%. but there are also employment insurance, income tax, CPP, benefit deductions, etc. Since some pension deduction is after tax, it hits pretty hard. After all of these, 100K becomes 50K. I heard there are a lot of tricks in US to maximize the last five years’ income but I don’t hear it here. You also have to compare the skills required for the job. Government usually are more professional jobs. But anyway, I quit my secure government job and move to less secured industry job. I am happier.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:26 PM

        I remember my salary was way above average and the gross number sounded big but I did not feel rich and my wife was angry at me.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:38 AM

        Maximizing the last five years, Lawrence, I believe is possible in the public sector!

          Oct 26, 2014 26:04 PM

          Since pension is calculated based on the last five years’ income, maximizing the last five year also maximize your pension income for the next 30 years. Nice to have for government workers. But this may only apply to the guys with power. I never heard it for senior employees. In contrary, the more senior technical people are usually feeling depressed since they run into a ceiling and their expertize are not translating to income. The funny thing is if you are good, everyone come to you and blame you if something goes wrong. The ones with less skill just shuffle the work to the others. Since they don’t know much and don’t want to be held responsible, they delay everything and leave industry waiting for long time and have to submit a lot of useless paper work.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:31 PM

            I believe that in the educational system in the U.S. teachers’, administrators’ and etc. pensions are based on the highest five years of pay.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:37 AM

    “You cannot blame a man for what he feels is absolutely the right thing to do.” This is the rough quote by Al Korelin about Barack Obama. I couldn’t disagree more. I believe that Obama get up in the morning and says to himself how can I screw America today. None of his actions are honorable. None of his actions are constitutional. None of his actions are in our best interest. He is truly a traitor of the highest degree. He should stand trial for treason!

      Oct 25, 2014 25:46 AM

      I’m sure that every despot in history thought that they were right.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:11 AM

        Matthew, the French thinker Alexis de Tocqueville of the C19th saw democracy’s drive for equality invariably ending in despotism. We have no democracy in British politics anymore than you do in the US. All we can do is abstain!

          Oct 25, 2014 25:17 AM

          Yes, ’round and ’round it goes; what has been will be again!

        Oct 25, 2014 25:03 PM

        Sure Matthew, but they thought that they were right simply because of personal gain. Don’t you think?

      Oct 25, 2014 25:02 PM

      Here is where I disagree Mr. Dillon,

      I think that he is a socialist of the highest degree. I believe that his background taught him to be that. I believe that his associates taught him to be that. I think that there is a good possibility that he is very angry about past societal actions toward certain minorities.

      Okay to me that is a given.

      Now comes the interesting part.

      The logical conclusion is that he believes that government can solve all “ills” that he believes have taken place in the past and continue to take place.

      I do not believe and never will believe that is the case.

      Here are two recent and simple events that occurred in Seattle.

      The first is a free medical clinic that lasted for four days and was held at the Key Arena. To me that is an example of society (not the government) that is taking actions into its own hands to help others.

      The second is exemplified by Paul Allen donating $100 million to fund ebola research; Bill Gates donating an additional $50 million for that cause; and, others in society doing the same thing.

      My point is not that these people and those like them are taking matters into their own hands and not relying on the government to do it.

      This should be the future of our country and not big government.

      Aside from extreme inefficiency big government is terrifying because people get into power who are simply interested in that power. I would put most of our politicians (not all) into that category.

      As Ron Paul told me ten or more years ago, “Al, don’t you think that people will take care of eachother?”

      My answer was and still is, “Yes, Dr. Paul, I believe that when push comes to shove people will look out for eachother!”

        Oct 25, 2014 25:50 PM

        I would have to disagree with that opening statement Al (he is a socialist). It is commonly held by conservative types that socialism MEANS and INCLUDES big government. This is no more true than it is of Capitalism . What Obama and Harper are are CORPORATE socialists. Real socialism involves legislation that actually benefits the greatest number of people. No Country in the world where the wealthiest 1% own the majority of the wealth can be considered socialist. Ironically Denmark which is FAR more socialist than America actually has a level of opportunity much greater than America. As an American you have less than a 20% chance of moving out of the income tax bracket you were born in, the u.k. 25%, Denmark 40%.
        Socialist : no, corporate socialism absolutely

          Oct 25, 2014 25:53 PM

          That being said any chance we get to downsize and most importantly decentralize government I’m for 😉

            Oct 25, 2014 25:03 PM

            I think that we all are, Jay!

    Oct 25, 2014 25:16 AM

    They , meaning the banksters, central planners and elites have papered over everything they can and put a dam across the stream of natural economic flow. If and when that bridge is breached the folly of their actions will be revealed.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:19 AM

      Until then, the ignorant majority will despise the few who understand and tell it like it is.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:26 AM

    I didn’t listen to any of today’s segments, frankly I’m tired of it..did Al actually say “you cannot blame a man for what he feels is the absolutely the right thing to do?” About Obama? WOW! I heard and read a lot of stuff on this site for a few years now, some of it good, some of it, some of it not so good, some of it crazy – but that takes the cake.
    This man had has one mission take down America

      Oct 25, 2014 25:06 PM

      Read my reply to Mr. Dillon and you will know exactly where I am coming from.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:36 AM

    BIrdman I read your post above “Bo done a boo boo”
    I’m trying to find the right words and I am having some difficulty.
    All I can say it rings hollow.

    ” the world does not care about precious metals”
    Come on bird, do you really believe that?
    Tell that to the Swiss, Russians , Chinese and. Indians.

    “The gold bull is dead”

    It’s true the price has changed but did anything else really change?
    Has anything really been resolved?
    You know the answer bird, I don’t have to tell you.

    Not sure what your motivation was with this piece but it comes off contrived.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:44 AM

      Bull bait James. Ha!

      Oct 25, 2014 25:08 PM

      I am not sure that Bird said anything other than Bo make a mistake.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:08 PM

        Pretty much correct, Al. Bo is another in a long line of those who primarily focus on a return to a bull market. There are dozens and dozens of popular guys in the same genre. Mostly newsletter writers and popular figures. All of them have been wrong thus far. Maybe I just find it aggravating that they get all the air time while common sense gets shuffled to the back of the bus.

        Then again, he is fulfilling a role by telling gold-bugs what they want to hear. If a guy wants to pay for that one-sided advice then God bless him but personally I appreciate those who take an analytical approach to metals markets and temper their enthusiasm.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:25 PM

          We really try to not give special time to anyone! I think that if people really stop and think about what a lot of the writers say, they will come to the opposite conclusions as many of the writers. Don’t you Bird?

            Oct 25, 2014 25:44 PM

            There is no question many of your guests are top notch.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:58 PM

      PS: We ARE in a bear market for both gold and silver, James. Even you should know that so it is hardly contrived to just say the obvious. As far as interest goes….well, until more than just 2% of Americans start taking an interest it is pretty much a dead asset class. Makes no difference what the Indians or Chinese do since they never sell after acquiring. There is not therefore a market in terms we can understand because “buy and hold forever” is missing that important element known as “sell” that makes it all work. That is why the East is not relevant right now.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:41 AM

    Janes……I agree with Al’s statement ” you cannot blame a man for what he feels is the absolutely the right thing to do?” You have to instead, blame the simpletons who put him in office with full knowledge of what he felt was the right thing to do. It was well known prior to the first election that Obama planned on taking down America……and he was still elected….The problem is the electorate, not the politicians…we all know what a politician is….problem is the simpletons who are allowed to vote…. Regards…..PS enjoy your posts….

      Oct 25, 2014 25:05 AM

      Nailed it Gator!

      Oct 25, 2014 25:10 PM

      Thanks Gator,

      In my case, I read his book “The Audacity of Hope” and knew exactly where he was coming from.

      Consequently, I did not vote for him in either 08 or 12. That is all I could do!

      GOOD ONE GATOR……………………………….J

    Oct 25, 2014 25:40 AM

    Big Al Korelin,

    Are you and Kory bullish oil and the oil stocks in the short to mid-terms?

      Oct 25, 2014 25:12 PM

      Can’t speak for Cory.

      My only thought is that in a balanced long term portfolio I think energy stocks play a role.

      Would I personally buy these stocks right now? Nope, I personally would wait. This is not investment advice!

    Oct 25, 2014 25:41 AM

    I sold off almost everything on this rally and sell the balance next week as the rally went parabolic from 1820 to 1964 in 7 days and hitting resistance at the 50 day average. The market will need a break and a correction.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:58 AM

      Paul this may turn out to be a good choice.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:58 AM

    Oil is showing weakness and may head toward $70. It has failed to rally strongly several times and looks like it is in a bear market. That will drag the whole market down so it is too risky to hold anything right now. The market went right through the 200 day and then closed close to the 50 day without correcting.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:14 PM

    Segments 1-2, Peter Bookvar gets it. Great analysis.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:15 PM


        Oct 25, 2014 25:29 PM

        Sorry, sorry and more sorry!

          Oct 25, 2014 25:37 PM

          Al, I was correcting myself, not you!

    Oct 25, 2014 25:29 PM

    Your vote does matter. Its important on the local level just as much as on the federal level. Please vote , you can always vote for an independant candidate or third party if you dont like the 2 big partys. best to all S

    Oct 25, 2014 25:36 PM

    Seg. 3, Cory, just look at the massive increase in volume in GDXJ this year and it is easy to see that there’s plenty of new buying coming into the space. Price has been kept in check because there has been a simultaneous increase in new selling. After the worst 3+ year bear market in a very long time, it is safe to say that the massive surge in volume is bullish not bearish (smart money is on the buy side).
    Adam Hamilton’s recent assessment of silver accumulation affirms what I mentioned here weeks ago.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:14 PM

      I’ll believe it if and when we see gold make a higher intermediate high. Until then I’m going to assume that gold has a date with a final bear market low sometime next summer and it will look exactly like every other bear market low in history with multiple bankruptcies and a final bloodbath washout phase.

      Hoping that somehow gold’s bear market is going to be different than other bears markets probably ins’t a great strategy.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:41 PM

        Sounds good to me Gary. If there is even such a thing as “smart money” I am quite sure it is biding its time and waiting for the easy pickings as this cycle plays out to its natural conclusion. Miners have stunk to all high heaven for years now. Anybody who has been buying most of that time has been repeatedly run over and squashed. Last week was just one more example of how the early birds who are so desperate to catch the final bottom went high leverage and got the snot kicked out of them one more time. Serves them right for their presumptuousness. Those guys are little more than buckshot and ammo for the market though because they provide the grease to make playing the short side fun. So much for smart money on the buy side!!!! How many times have we heard that pathetic refrain already.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:59 PM

        Re: “Hoping that somehow gold’s bear market is going to be different than other bears markets probably ins’t a great strategy.”

        I agree. Gold fell 34% in 2008 and has given back 38% in this bear market. Silver fell 60% in ’08 and 66.6% this time. The HUI plunged 71% in 2008 and 71% this time. Priced in gold, the miners have done much worse this time and silver has never been so oversold.
        There has been no new low for gold in 15 months, volume shows massive accumulation of the miners, and long term charts for the sector shows positive divergences. In addition, sentiment is way too biased to Goldman Sachs’ and your target of $1050 to make it likely.

          Oct 25, 2014 25:04 PM

          It’ll be interesting to look at both sentiment & volumes when gold makes a new low.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:22 PM

            A marginal new low is possible (maybe 1155), but $1050? I don’t think so. Where’s the basis for it other than emotion?

            Oct 25, 2014 25:56 PM

            Where is the basis for $1550 before year’s end also ?
            ….other than emotion ?

            Emotion & sentiment are powerful things,
            Like I said above Matthew, it’ll be interesting to watch them & mining stock volumes when gold makes a new low (as I believe it will)
            BTW Goldman Sachs’ target is $1050 IIRC….not mine.

            I’m far more bearish as I’ve previously stated.
            My target is lowish $900’s at best.


            Oct 25, 2014 25:04 PM

            We will certainly see. I have to say Skeeta that I hope you are wrong. But, one never knows!

            Oct 25, 2014 25:53 PM

            $1550 was hardly based on emotion, but getting there by year end was admittedly just an estimate made almost eleven months ago. Gold did go up $250 in two months after I made that comment. Most technicians were calling for imminent big moves down at the time.

            Oct 25, 2014 25:22 PM

            Where do you see gold’s price in 11 months from now then Matthew ?

            Oct 25, 2014 25:17 PM

            You repeatedly made that call for 1550 throughout the year. It was not a New Years prediction as you are now suggesting so you are not slipping off the hook that easily. You were defending that target in your posts to me very recently as well. Even claiming that gold was priced closer to your target than mine.

            Just admit you are far too optimistic and we can call it a day.

            Oct 26, 2014 26:11 AM

            The 2013 plunge from 1560 to 1179 happened in 54 trading days. If we get some reverse symmetry off of the third test of the low on 10/6, it is possible to get back to the 1550 area by the end of the year. 54 trading days from Oct.6 is Dec. 22.
            Investor sentiment can change dramatically very quickly; when it does, the short covering/new buying that will ensue could easily surprise even me.

          Oct 26, 2014 26:37 AM

          Or we could be in a massive distribution phase again.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:47 PM

    I quoted what bird said. He said more than Bo made a mistake.

    Bo has guts. He makes an unabashed call. Other people hedge their bets and waffle.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:58 PM

      Well okay.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:18 PM

      Oh I get it……James is one of his subscribers!

        Oct 25, 2014 25:45 PM

        For James’ sake I certainly hope not.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:00 PM

    Bo is correct with cycle theory. He just missed where we are in the cycle. There will be a 7 year bull run after this washout.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:38 PM

      What about all Bo’s previous lows in gold calls ?
      Yet the gold price fell faller.
      Are you forgetting them as conveniently as he has ?
      Why does no one who interviews him ever bring this up ?

      Its important imo.

      Yet everyone who interviews him skips around this question ?
      WHY ???

        Oct 26, 2014 26:56 AM

        Because they don’t take him seriously from the outset. This is entertainment!

        Oct 26, 2014 26:40 AM

        Interesting question Skeeta.

        I personally am not very interested in having him on the Show. I am not saying that he is a bad person, I am just saying that I don’t find his commentary to be particularly useful. He gets an awful lot of money for his newsletter and I am pretty convinced that it is not worth it to myself, Cory or our listeners.

        I could be wrong Skeeta and would be perfectly happy to hear the other side of this argument.

      Oct 26, 2014 26:18 AM

      Easy to say how about you give the audience a date or timeline if you haven’t already.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:30 PM

    On October 24, 2014 at 12:33 pm,
    james (the lesserrr) says:
    Seems Bo is being held to a different standard.
    I think it’s high time the three musketeers get more specific, less ambiguous and declare both price and time.
    For example on Friday September 19th on Gary’s interview I declared very plainly without hedging…
    1. On September 19, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:
    On Friday September 19th,2014 shortly after 12:30pm eastern standard time the GOLD MARKET BOTTOMED AT $1212.80
    I laid it on the line and I will live or die by that statement.
    No “if then” or “maybe so” or “possible perhaps”…
    So far I have been right on.
    I have plenty of skin in the game.
    Let’s not play semantics.
    There is a difference between changing ones mind and simply playing Monday morning quarterbacking.
    Yes it is ok to change your mind, it is quite another to change your playbook.
    Am I being a grouse – no I don’t think so.
    Too much money is on the line.
    I stated I completely agree with Bo regarding a bottom.
    I never stated what and when and if the top will be.
    I do not have the pulpit here, I am an anonymous contributor. You can take my opinions for what they are worth.
    Those who have the microphone should be held to a higher standard. They are influencing people.
    Also everyone here is “dirty” None of us have been right 100% of the time.
    People are questioning Bo’s background. People are saying he has been wrong in the past.
    I have never once heard Al or Cory say Doc, Rick or Gary have ever been wrong, when in fact they have.
    The fact that they have been wrong is not the issue; again we have all been wrong.
    But to never say “you were wrong on that call” is the issue.
    I say start making more exact calls and keep a scorecard.
    If you have no play that’s ok, your call will simply be “no play”
    You don’t have to be in every hand.
    I come from a different background.
    I walked to the window. I plunked my 2k or 20k down and I lived and died by my decision.
    No hedging, no beating around the bush. No playing both ends against the middle.
    Never took or gave recommendations. Didn’t have to.
    Reply to this comment

      Oct 25, 2014 25:04 PM

      James walked to the window & put his money down.
      As I previously have said, good luck James, it takes balls to both call it and smack the cash down.
      I personally disagree with James’ call,
      But I will send him a congratulatory bottle of local wine (as previously stated) if his bottom call in gold is ultimately proven correct.
      I’m very sure my wallet will be safe in my pocket from having to ever make that purchase.

      Gold is headed under one thousand.

      ….you can thank me later. 😉

        Oct 25, 2014 25:04 PM

        I don’t know about under $1,000, but as I said earlier one never knows!

      Oct 26, 2014 26:43 AM

      Am I the only one who can see that gold did not bottom at 1212 on Sept. 19.

      It went to 1183 on Oct. 6th and it may still have further to go before this intermediate decline is finished.

      Who are you trying to kid with this nonsense. You missed the bottom (so far) by $30 and 2 weeks. And if this intermediate cycle isn’t finished yet you are going to miss it by a lot more than that.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:16 PM

    Skeeta, do you have an idea of timing? I thought the drop was going to start Thursday and nil. I do expect a Major drop in gold starting Monday, but really can’t tell timing right now. I’m real confident gold will bottom around 500 to 700 and five sixty seven being , it. I know what, but sure would like to know ” when “. Thanks

    Oct 25, 2014 25:20 PM

    OK…James wants calls…..heres mine.
    Worldwide economies are slowing & will continue to do so.
    Gold may make a new low soon but that will not be the bottom.
    Those who are nimble in the gold shares may do well in the meantime (I’m not one).
    I call for gold’s final low in the 2nd half of 2015.
    I’ll be here screaming for new gold highs after that…but not until then.


      Oct 25, 2014 25:06 PM

      Well there you go! Thanks Skeeta

        Oct 25, 2014 25:26 PM

        Hope the Wife had a wonderful birthday the other day Big Al,
        Did you spoil her with a nice dinner / night out somewhere ?
        I hope so, best to you both.

          Oct 26, 2014 26:59 AM

          Many thanks for asking Skeeta.

          I actually put together a surprise party for her at a great local Italian Restaurant in Bellingham called Giuseppe’s. Giuseppe did a great job. We had about a dozen people there including Sarah who drove up with Kyle from Seattle and Kathy’s brother Jeff and his wife Polly who stopped by on their way home from Canada. Great time!

            Oct 27, 2014 27:16 AM

            Glad you all had a wonderful time Al,
            Family birthdays are a great time to not only celebrate but reflect on how much that person means to you.
            Hope you both get to spend many, many more together.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:10 PM

            Thank you Skeeta!

    Oct 26, 2014 26:37 AM

    Here is a post about gold that makes sense. I can get behind this one (because it is not crazy)

    The GIAMATT Crowd and Perpetual Motion — Dan Norcini Blog, Trader Dan October 26

      Bird…………DO you think DAN really has enough experience to be writing about gold. I see that his experience is a trader of only 20 years, and he would not have enough time to experience a complete GOLD CYCLE…which I believe is 28 years…..So, I would question the comments concerning GLD, since, GLD is a new invention…………just saying………………….respectfully just questioning………………j……….

        Oct 26, 2014 26:33 AM


          Oct 26, 2014 26:05 PM

          I think he does too.
          All else aside, I just cant help but think that the gold price should increase with currency creation.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:18 PM

        Dan used to be on our Show and then declined the last time I communicated with him. He said that being on KWN prevented him from going on any other similar venues. Oh well!

          I have not seen his name at KWN for some time…………I guess his experience was not ever lasting……………………j………….

            Oct 27, 2014 27:48 PM

            So to speak.

    Oct 26, 2014 26:35 AM


    I believe anyone can be qualified regarding any profession. I truly never base anything on years as that can be very deceiving. Yes years most often then none is associated with experience but one can’t neglect that some get clouded after many years and content with where they are.

    With that being said Dan was much more bullish in his previous years but then changed his outlook. I take his work with a grain of salt. Much of what he says is after the fact like most analyst/traders etc. He has been right most recently but things can change on a dime and when it does it will catch him and others on the wrong side of the trade and we will then here from a bullish dan after the fact. That’s how i see it. To each there own.

    Oct 26, 2014 26:41 AM


    I spoke about Canada and east coast toronto on another heading in here. Just curious if you have any insights on where you see rates in toronto canada in the next 5-10 years? Will there be a spike at some point?

    If hillary runs and wins next elections, do you see much of the same low rates in us?
    I believe rates here won’t go up until us does from past correlation.

    Opinions please?

      Oct 26, 2014 26:58 AM

      The Bank of Canada is running a rate policy that is almost in lockstep with the Fed albeit at a slightly higher level. That’s all I know. But probably if you spend a few minutes gazing at a long term chart of interest rates you will get a goo sense of when this low rate environment will end. Of all metrics we follow, interest rates follow the most predictable of paths when seen across centuries.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:49 PM

        Bird I have and it’s inconclusive. Basically what i see is a rate that can remain flat like the current rate as far as the eye can see. Am i missing something?

          Oct 27, 2014 27:18 AM

          No, you didn’t miss anything. That is pretty much what Ben Bernanke said to a private audience after he retired. He said something along the lines that it was possible for rates to stay low for the balance of his lifetime. We do know there have been periods in history where rates were stable for many years. Certainly it is possible to hold rates down if there is widespread cooperation amongst the major Central Banks and there are not major crisis such as large wars. The problem I foresee though is that the certainty of Sovereign defaults will put an end to illusions rate setting will be entirely under the control of CB’s in the future. It is going to become a lot more important where your money is tied up and whose debt you own. I would stick with the largest and most liquid markets and you probably cannot go wrong with Canadian issues. A lot of smaller countries will fold long before you ever see the Canadian Government default on its debt. I am not worried about the US either. It is popular in the gold community to keep repeating that the Us will crash and burn economically and yet here we are at a time when the dollar is actually appreciating despite trillions in liquidity being added to the global capital stocks. So this is about confidence and where investors are going to be willing to accept risk if the global economic system seems unstable. Who is going to prefer European debt for example if they really believed the Euro was going to break up? If that happens we will see defaults across the entire union. That’s why Brussels is so terrified of these upstart political parties that keep talking about referendums designed to break away from the Euro and bring back the old currencies. It is because of the bond markets. If confidence is lost Europe will be drrained, rates would skyrocket and capital would flee to any place that looked stable. It is a disaster in the making and we better hope it does not come to pass. Under such a scenario the dollar would soar in value, treasuries would be heavily bid and a lot of people tied up in those countries that had become unstable would lose their shirts. Check your mutual funds to see where they have allocated cash and be ready to get the hell out if any European election threatens to take the Euro down. There are VERY compelling reasons to believe that as bond markets get into choppy waters that stock markets could see a dramatic rise due to capital flight. Keep in mind how big the debt markets are to begin with. Only a fraction of that needs to move to have monster size impacts elsewhere. Gold, silver and commodities could well benefit and this is a time when gold and the dollar would rise together.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:41 AM

            Great Points Bird! Thanks for the insights.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:25 AM

            Anytime Glen.

            Oct 27, 2014 27:09 PM

            Good comment, Bird

            Oct 27, 2014 27:22 PM

            Cheers Al. Good to hear from you this morning. I was beginning to worry.

    Oct 26, 2014 26:07 AM

    I spent the last ten years working in the government before that I worked in the real world and I can tell you that if you fired 5 out of 7 government employees the others would start to work and those fired wouldn’t be missed. It really is that bad and even worse then people here think.

      Oct 26, 2014 26:42 AM


      Government can be cut by 25% and taxes cut correspondingly quite easily. Its a matter of will.

      Cut 7%per year for 4 years and it is accomplished. There is so much waste created because the money is there that;s its obscene.

      People do not spend other peoples money wisely. Because its not their sacrifice.

      REDUCE government.

      Oct 26, 2014 26:21 AM

      Yes, you are right. I worked for government too. However, for my particular area, they should fire 6 and hire a better one. A little harsh but not too far from the truth.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:11 AM

        I think it might be an option to learn something from Singapore. Civil servants have high salary, good security as long as you keep your skills up to date and work effectively. If you fail qualifications, you are gone.

        Oct 26, 2014 26:06 PM

        Where’s the thumbs-up button?!
        What’s really harsh is the prosperity that government steals from society.

          Oct 26, 2014 26:02 PM

          When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. Absolutely true.

      Oct 26, 2014 26:19 PM

      I have heard that before, Machine Gun.

    Oct 26, 2014 26:29 PM

    I am not a subscriber to Bo or anyone else.

    I respect the fact that he is willing to make a hard call…more on this another time…

    Oct 26, 2014 26:42 PM

    Cycle nonsense ?? That’s amusing. Bo is just on the wrong place of the cycle. He’s spot on with the theory.

      Oct 27, 2014 27:06 PM

      I would have to agree that “cycles” are not nonsense.

      Not sure why Bo is is adamant. I would be curious to see how he can rationalize his last call. My guess is would have something to do with timing. Oh well!

    Oct 26, 2014 26:45 PM

    Martin Armstrong mentions that the next turning point for gold is January 1st, 2015. This suggests a repeat of last year’s gold’s run where it changed direction at the end of each quarter almost to the day. If correct then gold should be heading lower until years end.

    News……………..GOLD SHOULD BE $7000 ….J. Rickards…..per CHINA REPORT…….Oct. 25,2014.

    Oct 27, 2014 27:59 PM

    No more negative commentary James the lesser.