A lot of market weakness moving into next month

September 28, 2015

Doc is here to discuss his outlook on gold, commodities, and the conventional markets. He is not seeing a fair bit of weakness in most everything. The ending takeaway being – if the conventional markets do not recover soon this is looking like a bear market and not a bull market short term correction.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Sep 28, 2015 28:25 AM

    doc & gary certainly differ-

      Sep 28, 2015 28:50 PM

      It’s nice to see the guys like doc and Gary sharing there views and putting there money where there mouth is. They have nothing to prove as I believe both are good at what they do and live from it.

      Want to say hi to my good pals Matthew, Peter, al, Cory, shad, Lawrence etc. Not sure what has happened to bird? Noticed jj is back and some things have not change :).. Regardless value everyone’s opinion right or wrong!

      So I mentioned I would be back with some of my thoughts not that anyone cares lol.

      You all know I invest first and trade second. Moved away from trading months back as I did not like that particular cup of tea and the reward/stress that came with it was not favourable to me. My sanity is worth millions! My forte as expressed with many is my long term portfolio that I continue to hold.

      My views as of today remain that we are in a spiral deflation within asset prices and we will continue to see downward pressure in the equities market via Dow/s&p going into election year 2016. We may get the occasional bump higher but with trend down.

      As for gold, not buying anything as of yet and will wait for what I believe will be lower prices. Gold seems set to test sub 1000. When is the big question. Im in the deflation camp going into next year. Tuff times ahead. They will need to print once again and it should happen between now and Obama departure.

      All the best to all and make sure your companies have minimal debt and cash on hand.


        Sep 28, 2015 28:54 PM

        Hello Glenfidish, hope all is well my friend.

        Sep 29, 2015 29:17 AM

        Hey Glenfidish – this is Shad. Had to pick up a surname because some coworker noticed I was blogging at work.

        It’s really good to see you post again man, as I always appreciate your insights on the markets…..and you’re a character 🙂

        I agree with your thoughts on equities and commodities will likely trend lower over the next few months and there will be better buying opportunities in PMs. I also very much agree that it is crucial to seek out companies that have a good balance sheet, minimal debt, cash on hand, and a growing revenue (and more importantly) free cash flow expected at current metal or oil or commodity prices or even if they dropped another 10-15%.

        Great to hear from you Glenfidish.

        BTW – great interview with Doc today. I concur with most of his thoughts on equities and PM, as echoed in the comments above.


    Sep 28, 2015 28:30 AM

    Doc, I was going to ask you if you have any thoughts specifically about Glencore and how it’s current position might affect the other big mining stocks?

    But listening to your commentary today then, re your thoughts on commodities, things are about to go from bad to worse for Glencore. Makes me start wondering about Glencore going bust and, if so, what affect that will have on other miners.

    Interesting times ahead.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:37 AM

      Its always interesting Bob, ya never notice?
      Gotta be the most used word I hear around here. lol
      hmmm interesting

        Sep 28, 2015 28:01 AM

        I found your comment interesting.

          Sep 28, 2015 28:21 PM

          VERY interesting……

            Sep 29, 2015 29:23 AM

            Very curious comments….I find you all interesting……bordering on fascinating….. 🙂

      Sep 28, 2015 28:22 PM

      xing the bell, when it happens………………

        Sep 28, 2015 28:47 PM

        NYSE…….having problems with exchange to Chicago EXCHANGE………zerohedge

        Sep 29, 2015 29:29 PM

        LOOKS LIKE xing…….got the boot………….

    Sep 28, 2015 28:35 AM

    HANG ONTO YOUR HAT……………market is going down the elevator shaft……

    Sep 28, 2015 28:55 AM

    Looks like the dollar and gold are dropping together today.

    Looking at charts from about 1800? gold bears on average take about 50-60% of the price from the high. This is normal, people feeling “burned” getting leery is about time.
    Gold stocks should have a hard time moving up, normal at about this stage.
    605 I think takes us to about 750, Ricks 800 could come into play yet, and it would be entirely normal, historically compared to previous gold bears that is.

    The optimists view should be, we didnt have a pop in a bubble, completely differant than a bear.

    Everything Doc is saying is consistant with history concerning gold bears.
    There is no shortage, never was, its all normal.

    The question is whats the premiums going to be, for physical buyers anyway.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:56 AM

    oops, 60% takes us to about 750

    Sep 28, 2015 28:06 AM


    Do you think PAAS & HL will see their bottoms by this December? I read a previous post from you on 09/14/2015, that said they might hit $2-3.00 & $1.00 respectively. Waiting for my buying opportunity. Thanks for your input.


    PS: Sorry everybody for reposting this from Saturday. First time posting and I was waiting to be approved until today.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:18 AM

      PAAS@2or 3 and HL@1 are true bargains. I wonder how low Doc thinks SLW, AG, AXU, and EXK can go? I own all of them and may be in a lot of pain in tax loss season, but after all, tomorrow is another day.

        Sep 28, 2015 28:45 AM

        I hate a losing trade like poison. Kicking them and moving on is usually better medicine.

        Sep 28, 2015 28:24 PM

        BB; I would have to look at the charts of some of the examples to give my opinion but I commented weeks ago that you would in all likelihood see SLW hit 10–one of the posters felt I was off my rocker but we’re now within 1 dollar of that price. The odds are very good that EXK hits a sub 1 dollar price. I’m then a buyer.

          Sep 29, 2015 29:29 AM

          Good thoughts on the silver miners Doc. I agree that EXK will be a great value at under a buck.

          Bonzo Barzini – I like all the companies you mentioned for the longer term in a recovering Silver price environment, and we are getting closer to when that will happen, but likely have a lower low first. That low will be the point to load up, average down, and bottom fish. However, some investors like to dollar-cost average down or up into a position over time, and seeing as how miners are still 90-95% down from the highs in many cases, it doesn’t hurt to continue to add to quality companies on the bigger pullbacks. You mentioned Pan American Silver & Hecla and First Majestic. Those kinds of names or I have started building a position in Coeur and Silver Standard and am looking at Fresnillo. Those kinds of larger companies will still be around when things improve in 2016, 2017, and beyond.

          Good luck to all in their investing.

            Sep 29, 2015 29:36 AM

            I should add though, that I expect much higher percentage gains from the smaller silver/base-metal producers like Mandalay, Silvercorp, Alexco, Americas Silver Corp, Mag Silver, Sierra Metals, Avino Silver & Gold, Great Panther, Aurcana, Impact Silver, Silvercrest (merging with First Majestic), AZ Mining, and Minco Silver.

            These will be the kinds of companies I’ll be taking large positions in over the next few months, and I do have a small position in Americas Silver Co, Mandalay, Silvercrest, and Sierra Metals currently that I will add to if prices dip 10-15% lower.

            Sep 29, 2015 29:06 AM

            I forgot I also own Silvercrest and Silver Standard. Primero and MUX are also silver stocks to a large degree and I own them too. I’m not selling any of my silver stocks now, but hope to buy more if Doc is right about another down leg.

            Sep 30, 2015 30:08 AM

            Yep. I have Primero and MUX in my Gold lists, but you are correct about their large silver assets and they’ll benefit greatly from higher Silver and base metal prices, in addition to gold price increases.

          Sep 29, 2015 29:26 AM

          Doc, you been warning me about SLW since it was 27 last year. Good call, but remember to ring the bell for us at the bottom. Thanks.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:01 PM

      Jim; as we speak, hl and paas have been consolidating and are sitting on a cliff. I believe we’ll see lower prices by December and they’ll have to start to break down here pretty soon to see my price objectives by then. I’ll try and remember to say something when I believe they’ve bottomed.

        Sep 29, 2015 29:55 AM

        The next big pullback to lower lows will be the time to go in a bit heavier in the miners.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:15 AM

    I agree with Doc that a real tradable bottom will occur in gold. as we get closer to December. By then, the global commodity bust will be going full throttle and gold will be near $600-$800. But, right now, gold has the potential to go above 1200 and take out some bullish buyers.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:26 AM

      better sell at 1200……..and buy back $600

      Sep 28, 2015 28:45 AM

      Velma, the bust you talk of probably would come on the back of terrible news out of China…. causing the copper, iron, coal, etc, miner share prices to be destroyed… and taking down the conventionals hard as well.

      It would be a 1929 depression-like crash.

        Sep 28, 2015 28:55 AM

        CHINA….100,000 coal miners………get pink slips, cold days ahead…….

          Sep 28, 2015 28:18 PM

          Yep, those 100,000 job losses is a big warning sign of the lack of demand for coal in China… which kinda indicates that their economy is in a bad way.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:26 PM

            Is it a bad sign? or is it a good sign they move towards non polluting options?
            They mentioned quite some time ago thats what they intended.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:33 PM

            Just out of interest, Ive read China intends to drop uranium reactors and move to thorium. Wont affect many here, its gonna take about 50 years.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:38 PM


            Sep 28, 2015 28:13 PM

            BB. China has been reducing the coal use due environment concerns. It used to add one coal power plant a week. Not anymore. In Inner Mongolia province, there are a lot of sink hole from small coal mine operation. China cracked down hard on those miners starting a few years ago.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:36 PM

            interesting Lawrence, lol.
            Just my point, China has been planning these job cuts and mine closers for awhile.
            It just may not be as big a deal as some make it out to be.

            And we wonder why we get China wrong regularly.
            or should I say why we get so much wrong…..about anything actually.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:41 PM

            It is really hard to say. It should impact the local government. North east China has been having hard time to transform from a soviet style heavy industry to more modern industrial structure. Mass layoff does create instability.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:58 PM

            Always good to get your thoughts on China Lawrence.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:48 AM

    By your definition and concern about the conventional markets not having a v shaped recover or Nike check mark as Cory puts it then you have to apply the same
    Logic to gold and silver.

    They have been down hard, for long, thye are in big bad bear.

    These markets are all dead for a long long time

    Unless of course you listen to Matthew and close your eyes and keeping chanting it is just a cyclical bear

      Sep 28, 2015 28:32 PM

      To someone as emotional as you, James, anyone who corrects such an error would be accused of “chanting.” Your sad purpose here is to bitch about everything but your abilities.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:50 AM

    Raise it, raise it to the ground !!

    Sep 28, 2015 28:56 AM


    Sep 28, 2015 28:00 PM

    Helicopter money coming soon………..FREE MONEY coming for XMAS.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:02 PM

    DID we get SHEMITHA YET…………?

    Sep 28, 2015 28:05 PM

    TRUMP has new tax plan, to lower taxes for millions………He will not have to worry about that , because there will be no INCOME., 50MILLION IN POVERTY………..

    Sep 28, 2015 28:08 PM

    If Doc wrote a book on technical analysis, I would buy it.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:36 PM

      Silverbug; if I did that all my secrets would be out. Then Al could kick me to the curb,

    Sep 28, 2015 28:56 PM

    Doc I don’t fault you for flip flopping. Gary does it all the time;)

    Besides, things are different this week than two weeks ago. I think we are going to test the 200 MA…big move down coming in equities.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:46 PM

      I believe you’re correct—If we close a couple of weeks below the 200 week MA then we could be in deep trouble.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:04 PM

    Platinum……ratio to gold..1.24 …..BOB M. has a nice read at 321gold on Platinum.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:40 PM

    Never mind. I enjoyed the lunar eclipse last night!

    Sep 28, 2015 28:47 PM

    GE to close engine plant and move to Canada, even though I am Canadian and this plant will be good for us, I still believe that the US needs a businessman to be President. The sooner The US can reverse it’s decline to all countries the better it will be for Canada and our southern neighbors.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:14 PM

      It is good for Canada.

        Sep 28, 2015 28:54 PM

        Lawrence, you have a history of not understanding my posts because frankly I don’t think you give them anything other then a cursory glance although you reply. Please think about this as what you have written I have already replied to in my previous post. DT

          Sep 28, 2015 28:20 PM

          I am not going to follow your post, period. Don’t be too tough on others. This is just a forum. Relax.

          Sep 28, 2015 28:27 PM

          Please don’t follow mine either, respect.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:24 PM

            I am not tough on others only truthful. DT

      Sep 28, 2015 28:43 PM

      The U.S. needs a president that will tell the truth and not blame China and Russia for its problems. Trumps needs to have a long talk with Jim Rogers about protectionism and an even longer talk with Ron Paul about the benefits of sound money and following the constitution.

        Sep 30, 2015 30:08 AM

        good thoughts sir.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:24 PM

    Have to agree with Doc the technicals on the U.S. denominated gold price haven’t improved, and may be subject to seasonal factors as in any other year. For the most part, the gold bull market has seen its day, except for in other currencies. Plus interest rate declines will not speak well for the $US. Then we also have markets stealing the welcome mat.

    One indicator that I had been waiting several months to turn down from the top is the ratio of $TNX:!PRII. We’ve seen the top in the daily, weekly and are now waiting for the turn in the monthly chart, which should logically happen before the close at the end of October. The scenario would be declining rates and dollar with the markets and higher gold prices.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:29 PM

    Fransix—is that the correct symbols for the ratio you mentioned. It’s one I haven’t followed—Doc.

      Sep 28, 2015 28:53 PM

      There’s also !PRDI Here’s !PRII:!PRDI…

        Sep 28, 2015 28:10 PM

        It’s just a matter of convenience to use this indicator in this way. I had no way of updating or observing interest rates vs. Inflation, so I assume that Pring’s index would serve well.

        Would have to see commodities stabilize here, though the markets sell off. If commodities DO stabilize here as markets go into the rout, then there’s much higher inflation than most anticipate, while interest rates decline. This is the formula for higher gold prices.

        A much more formal appraisal of inflation vs. interest rates us here:

          Sep 28, 2015 28:27 PM

          FranSix, thanks a ton—–that’s some interesting stuff.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:43 PM


            These are the most fascinating charts I have seen in very long time.

            I ALWAYS read ever post you have, but, I must admit, I almost NEVER really, and truly, understand everything the charts actually mean (There, I said it, I’m kind on dim)

            I know it sounds weird, but maybe … having you on a KER Saturday segment to give your unique perspective?

            Regardless, when you post I get interested


            Sep 30, 2015 30:09 AM

            I like the idea of FranSix as a special guest speaker. Also bring back my buddy LPG for a special segment. There is a lot of talent on this blog.

          Sep 28, 2015 28:36 PM

          I like what did with $TNX:!PRII against gold. Very interesting as Doc says.

          I’m in the puny camp that does believe we are in for much higher inflation than most anticipate.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:19 PM

            Yes, but lower interest rates at the same time.

            Sep 29, 2015 29:02 AM

            “Higher inflation than most anticipate”

            “But lower interest rates at the same time.”

            So a new paradigm?

            Sep 29, 2015 29:24 AM

            Nothing new with interest rates lagging inflation. The paradigm was useful in determining exactly why gold prices advanced so much during the 1970’s.

            If this indicator tells us in advance that gold prices are to rally, then I’ll be quite satisfied. The theory can always fall apart.(for example: I am half believing that Pring’s inflation index has not shown inflation in years, but prices are up substantially since the 1990’s)

            The actionable advice would obviously be to buy gold miners, but the whole problem with gold mining ventures is raising capital, where they’re heavily exposed to risk from borrowing the capital they need.

    Sep 28, 2015 28:10 PM

    and the U.S. hasn’t reduced employment in coal….. ?!! of coal….

    Sep 28, 2015 28:36 PM

    Looking at a number of other sector stocks tell you the conventional markets are at high risk. Look at the charts of XON and FEYE—they both had serious breakdowns today. There are others and they all are signalling further moves down.