Looking Towards 2016 – Hour 2

January 9, 2016

Hour 2: 

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    Jan 09, 2016 09:11 AM

    Thanks as always for the weekend show fella’s.
    Its always appreciated.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:20 AM

    As Skeeta wrote, I love to start the Saturdays listening to the weekend show and making coffee before the rest of the family is up. Thanks for all your work Al. /European listener

    Jan 09, 2016 09:12 AM

    Good to hear Bill Howald’s reassurances that Rye Patch is in such good shape. Sounds like it’s one of John Keiser’s popcorn stocks, but where good management and cash security remain paramount.
    Best to all, A

    Jan 09, 2016 09:01 AM

    Hi Doc,
    Thanks always for you comments. Any advice for a 401K holder. Should I get out for a while and stay in cash or ride it through?

      Jan 09, 2016 09:18 AM

      Alan, that’s got to be a decision on your own. It’s interesting since I’ve had that decision with my son who was in a third cash on his 401k—I told him that the risk/reward for stocks are now skewed considerable toward risk for the foreseeable future and that paper assets are now entering the risk category—he called me yesterday and told me he moved another 30% of his 401k to the cash side—-I believe that was a wise decision.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:19 AM

        decision= discussion in second sentence.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:06 AM

    That was terrific Doc. Your segment was one of the best I have heard from you in a long while. I agree with most of what you said, especially the part where you mention that there will not be a fast price recovery in commodities once they do hit bottom. After being sold off this hard for this long I also suspect it will take some time for investors to take any resource investing seriously for quite awhile. So the idea once bandied about by many of a V shaped bottom is pretty unlikely. That goes for gold too. The enthusiasts who have remained loyal have waited so long already but will probably remain frustrated once metals markets and miners turn around. The assumption that just because miners lost 90 some percent or more in less than five years means they will return to old highs just as quickly is probably a mirage.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:15 AM

      There was just one word missing from your interview that I was sure I would hear you say. It relates to the reason most assets are now set to begin falling. And that word is demographics. House price for example could decline for the next decade. Stock markets may not recover to old highs for several years as you predicted. And as the wealth effect fades so will the mood sour as both pensions and property assets wither together. Should be interesting times in the developed economies. But even as that takes place I see continued signs of bubbling enthusiasm in the parts of Africa I know. That again is demographics. With median ages of 14 to 18 years in many of these countries the boom times are only just beginning. If you ever feel kind of depressed over there just hop on a plane and go where to mood is upbeat and increasingly optimistic. It is really a world away from the troubles you guys are having back home.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:29 AM

        According to Channel 4 news yesterday Bird, savvy Nigerians are leaving the UK and going back home in droves

          Jan 09, 2016 09:38 AM

          I hear that constantly, Reverend. They call them the expats and the diaspora and governments in many African countries are encouraging the return of their own nationals to support capital infusion and new investment. It is just that the returns on investments are so good and competition is very weak. It remains easy for modest upstarts to dominate in their sectors if they can expand quickly. The big Western companies are still thin on the ground and most won’t open in areas too far from the major capitals. That leaves a lot of territory open to locals and Expats who seek their fortunes.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:34 AM

      Thanks, Bird, for your comments. Even though things are foreboding moving forward, there are tremendous opportunities. In fact this first week in the markets have been rewarding for me personally. The commodities have further to fall and won’t see their lows until well into the year. Even though gold has further to fall, there are beginning divergences between some of the stable producers with cash on the books and minimal to no debt. In fact from a technical standpoint there are about 7 companies that technically are fascinating that have reached technical milestones that the vast number of other PM companies have not. They’ll be the ones I’ll initially concentrate on going forward. I really love these markets since the opportunities are amazing even though the appearances seem cloudy.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:18 AM

        Richard (DOC) as you well know markets discount the future. All markets will turn long before conditions start to improve. If you look at any length chart of the crb or any other measure of commodities, they are cheaper than they have ever been in history. I recognize that markets tend to overshoot both on the upside and the downside, but soon people will recognize we still need oil and we still need steel, we still need copper, we still need wheat and maybe markets have gone way too far.

        At all tops and at all bottoms, the majority of investors and gurus will be 100% dead wrong. If the consensus is that commodities will continue down, as always, the consensus will be wrong.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:38 AM

          You’re absolutely correct about markets, Bob. However, these markets have further to fall yet on a technical basis. However, this year will see the lows for most of the commodities and in all likelihood for the PMs–it’ll be later in the year for the commodities and probably by summer for the PMs.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:00 AM


            That’s saying that markets will get even more irrational than they are today and you would be betting against 5000 years of history. At turns the technicals and the fundamentals are meaningless and only sentiment matters.

            If you go back to the top in silver in April of 2011 I only know about 5 guys who got it right and for gold in Sept of 2011, there were only a couple. the same thing will happen with commodities. The many will fail at the predictions of lower CRB.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:58 AM

            Great points BOB M……’re on a roll………thanks for the input…………

            Jan 10, 2016 10:47 AM

            Bob & Doc – Interesting discussion on the CRB bottoming, what bottoms are like sentiment-wise, and what the technical set up is on the charts versus the accuracy of technical indicators at times of a top or bottom. Good thoughts from both of you.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:12 AM


      Correct but they could go up 400% and still be only half of what they used to be. It’s impossible for a stock to drop 101% but easy and possible to go up 101%.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:49 AM

    Gentlemen, thanks again for your comments, Doc in particular. Personally I’ve been waiting for a crash since May 2015 and obviously been wrong in date-setting for 7 months, but that may change this month. I have one big question on the value of the Dollar. I know Rick is a perma-bull as he is a deflationist and Doc summarised once more the fundamental reasons why we may enter a period of deflation.

    I’m not so sure though about Rick’s adamant conviction that this will lead to a rise in the USD. We’ve seen 7 years of QE combined with a rise in Stock prices, lowering of interest rates and a rising dollar whereas many people might have thought that massive QE cannot result in a rising USD. Well, if all that QE moves into stocks, it apparently can. also as other currencies have issues of their own which make the USD the prettiest pig in town.

    My simple reasoning now is that if the combi of QE/lower interest rates/rising Stock prices/rising USD is reversed, USD would have to fall.

    Could for instance a sudden massive dump of TSY’s by China create such kind of a nuclear event that could lead to a fall of the USD? Any opinions?


      Jan 09, 2016 09:41 AM

      JP, I find your comments about the dollar particularly prescient. I share your concern about Rick’s adamant conviction about a massively higher dollar. Right now the technicals are not screaming a rising dollar in the near future. In fact, the longer we stay in the range we the more I’m convinced that the odds are we don’t move significantly higher. Also, if we’re moving into a conventional bear market and the commodities finally bottom late this year, it seems counter-intuitive to me that the dollar would strengthen much more. I’m watching the dollar technicals closely to give me a clue on which way we break out of the range. I do know that odds are we move lower in the range in the near future—then we’ll see what path the dollar wants to take after that move.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:01 AM

    With 75 million boomers going into retirement……a crash will not give the boomer an opportunity to reenter the market. The remaining 135million on the poverty level, will not be buying stocks……jmho

      Jan 09, 2016 09:22 AM

      That’s just it Frank. We should not forget that it is primarily Boomers who own the majority of all stocks and financial assets and because that is a fact and so many will now need to withdraw rather than add to positions as they retire that markets could trend lower for many years in real terms.

      Unless we quickly find a whole new crop of young investors to buy these markets the future is not that bright for anyone selling financial instruments other than annuities. The demographic bulge has only just begun to show its menacing side where stock markets are concerned.

      Where it gets really interesting is that as markets fall the net value that must be extracted each year by pensioners increases. That is to say that if one needed to liquidate 10% of their portfolio annually to support a lifestyle that the percentage of assets that need to be liquidated each year will have to rise as stock markets fall.

      And that action just puts further pressure on the downside for the market overall. Kind of a vicious cycle. And its not like people in their 70’s and 80’s can afford to say “I will just wait out the declines and sell later”. They are already living on borrowed time in some cases.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:32 AM

        In short, the Boomer deflation will be the most significant feature of the next decade as it impacts everything from retail to travel, services to supply, stocks to bonds and autos to real estate.

        If anyone is not familiar with this one single major economic aspect that is coinciding with current excess valuations in virtually everything we own they had best learn about it now.

        Because it has arrived.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:48 AM

          I would agree …….”they had best learn about it now”……great summary….from an idea that is real.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:49 AM

            Maybe an answer is to find a market in a country with young people.
            How about Kazakhstan? That place is moving to a capitalist economy like a “speeding train”, which reminds me, going to be huge opportunity along that rail line.
            The trick for westerners might just be simply to find newer fresher markets.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:52 AM

            bb……..The young people will have to have money available for investment, outside of needs.
            With the youth unemployment rate at 50% or more, let me know where you discover the markets. Although, Peter Schiff has mentioned he is investing 40% of his fund’s money in emerging mature markets. So, maybe getting ahold of Peter’s play book may be a suggestion…………….ootb

            Jan 09, 2016 09:54 AM

            China, still has a lot of immature investors…..maybe there is your answer………lol

            Jan 09, 2016 09:04 AM

            Exactly bb. Unfortunately the list of countries with some of the highest growth rates are unfamiliar or even more often burdened with a negative recent history so they face big perception problems with investors. Just look at the list of who’s countries are on the move and you know what I mean immediately. Places like Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Columbia, Nigeria, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Ethiopia to name a few. All great places I am sure but investors worry legitimately about rule of law, security, political stability, land ownership, corruption and that sort of thing. It takes the most intrepid individual to try to tap in to the action and set aside their bias and preconceived notions. For sure, it is not for everyone to venture into the frontier markets but the rewards can be spectacular for those who succeed.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:44 AM

            Thanks Bird, my horizon just got bigger!

            I am guilty of not seeing the forest through the trees.

            Too much going on at this end!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:11 AM

            The rule of law would be the biggest, unless you are a drug or arms dealer.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:42 AM

            Just for argument sake, first question, you guys think there is rule of law in the U.S.? lol
            I think we are in agreement for young people there are options other than North America and Europe. For those willing to move there.

            The markets are another thing, most of us can call our brokers and ask the cost of making any particular market available.
            I think I mentioned a couple returns on the Jamaican market the other day.
            Due Diligence my friends, there are markets never mentioned on sites like these.

            I was just presenting an option for ..say a retired person that needs return.

            Al, next time hes on, could you ask Faber if he has any suggestions?
            Bet he and Rogers sure as heck know 1 or 2.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:44 AM

            Ultimately, most investors have a narrow range of focus, heck, on this site if you own lumber you could call yourself diversified. lol

            Jan 09, 2016 09:36 AM

            In a sense depending on how you define diversification!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:50 AM

            Well Al, Maloney says he is 50% gold and 50% silver….100% diversified. lol
            A true gold bug.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:58 AM

          bb…..answer to rule of law………NO., and that is why you would be very cautious at this juncture.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:30 AM

            Im a cautious guy Frank, I own 10% gold, and I never kiss on a first date.
            Very cautious indeed.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:38 AM

            Nothing wrong with being cautious…when not sure don’t………KISS IS A GOOD MOTTO.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:29 PM


          Keep in mind that IFFFFFF the law/regulation is amended to allow pensions funds to own more equities, you’ll get massive capital inflows in stocks/equities.

          Best to you,


            Jan 09, 2016 09:41 PM

            Those inflows will have to exceed outflows in aggregate to offset the impacts, LPG. There are a whole lot of mitigating factors here that, if they continue, will result in higher redemption’s than normal.

            The main factors are current low interest rates, real estate prices that will soften, default risk on debt issues and corporate profitability. Of these, real estate is probably the most significant since it often represents the largest proportion of a retirees assets.

            A lot has been written on this subject as we know that retirements and mortality will put downward pressure on house pricing for many years to come. In other words, we may have seen the peak in Real estate already and the combination of poorer employment prospects of the next generation, overvaluations in most land, rising interest rates and other compounding effects tell us the Wealth Effect will be impaired in that regard.

            Secondly, bond portfolios may be at heightened risk. In general rates paid are in the gutter in many cases and yield is hard to find thus pushing most people far out onto the risk curve. Less attention is yet being paid to issuer solvency.

            If this is indeed the end of a credit cycle there is going to be a reconciliation and the pain will be spread around. Puerto Rico is probably our best current example. Its debt is widely held and looks certain to never be paid back. It won’t be the last.

            Here is the main point though. Baby Boomer retirements are getting underway in earnest exactly as we have reached peak valuations in a great many asset classes. You have surely heard from the likes of Warren Buffet and others that there is not much worth investing in at this time.

            Assets in general are richly valued at a time when a larger than usual number of people will be attempting to cash in on their nest egg and savings. I don’t think anybody really knows how much of an effect there will be with any certainty but we should expect the pressure to be a little more than just nominal.

            I only bring this up because a confluence of conditions exist at the same time that are potentially quite negative. Are we, for example really in a debt and bond bubble? Well that may be a subject that is open to debate. If we are though and the end is near there is going to be a little blood spilled on one of the largest of asset classes.

            Secondly, would we agree that equities in general are excessively valued at this time? And can we fairly assume that a market correction is needed / impending to restore balance and that such corrections can in worst case scenarios run for years? I would point you to the prices of stocks that fell during 1929 and note how many years passed before they returned back to their 1929 peak.

            Well maybe I have too many assumptions baked into this pie of mine but it is fairly widely accepted that bubbles exist in a broad range of assets from Art markets to farm land and that pricing is distorted in those other classes that are not actually in bubbles.

            This happens at a time when most would agree we have arrived at peak debt meaning it is becoming increasingly difficult for the economy to absorb more credit. How many more students exist to fund educations for example. How many more auto loans cane be granted when the new vehicle market is already saturated.

            And on and on. We all know the basic problems already so a recap isn’t needed.

            So into this mix we now have the largest cohort of the population and the one that is most heavily invested in the stock market, intending to retire and fund a life style that is beset with rapidly rising health care costs and potentially falling asset values across the spectrum.

            Do you still think regulatory reform can offset all those other conditions? I have my doubts but I will try to keep an open mind. Maybe this problem is nothing that a whole lot more corporate share-buybacks can’t fix or that a burst of buying activity from Europe and Japan won’t cure.

            Anything is possible and I have no crystal ball. But the way things stand today, all else being equal, sales of assets will exceed purchases of everything from homes to autos to stocks and bonds irrespective of all the other influences that are already worries for the markets.

            The second hand market itself will be flooded with goods as well dampening most retail at a time when far fewer new purchases are considered by those entering retirement. Recall all those basements, garages and attics filled to the rafters with stuff that nobody really seems to need or want.

            so again, too much supply, falling demand and we have the circumstances for very slow growth for years to come until the next generation takes up the mantle and the excess of the past is finally burned off.

            That’s my argument in a nutshell.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:29 AM

            Interesting views.
            Most of what you refer to was mentioned in Raoul Pal’s latest (c. 1hr long) interview on RealVisionTV.
            Best to you,

            Jan 10, 2016 10:14 AM

            Never heard of him. But it is always good to know I am in the company of others with a similar viewpoint. You might know I don’t follow any of the media or spend time in front of the tube. So my opinions like the one above are generally my own without much outside influence percolating in. My point is I have not copied this other guys work if that’s what your comment implies.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:10 PM

            Raoul Pal is sharp. Thanks for reminding me of the RealVisionTV again LPG. Good stuff.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:36 AM

            Yeah, you need that guy since you can’t accept similar creative thought on this blog. In any case, most of you guys are brain dead sheep in my opinion. That is the nice way of putting it.

            The obvious insult to me by overlooking what I wrote while endorsing a media personality unknown to me is hard to overlook. And LPG’s comment that somebody else already said all of that is equally minimizing. But then again I don’t expect much from most of you. Except baaaa baaaa baaa. You guys get your news from Pop-TV and that is what you think is legitimate.

            Few of you actually think for yourselves.

            Don’t like my opinion?

            Well it is honest and I mean every single word of it. Take up your complaint with AK.

            LPG meanwhile will NEVER be an adequate replacement for Gary.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:12 AM

            First time you notice Bird? lol
            They do like to do that here, one upping seems to be in style as well.
            Funny actually.

        Jan 10, 2016 10:48 AM


    Jan 09, 2016 09:29 AM

    I’ve owned and traded Premier Gold for the last 10 months and have noticed recently that the price swings are lessening and you can’t just buy and sell it with the expectation of clipping %10+ per trade. Those days are over and it tells me it will launch the next time we get a $50+ dollar move in the gold price. After adding a truck load of this last fall, I am NOT going to sell my core position in this until 2020 at the earliest.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:41 AM

      What you are talking about is also visible on the gold and silver charts. Volatility has been declining as the price has fallen and the range narrowed. I was just making notes on that yesterday actually as I had noticed the same thing as you. Declines are less severe and bounces are getting weaker.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:46 AM

      Confused and Bird; it’s very interesting that you bring up Premier Gold. It’s one of the 7 gold stocks that I mentioned above that have technicals that many of the other PM stocks don’t have at this time. It’ll be one of 7 that I have and will take positions in going forward. It’s very interesting indeed that you mentioned it today.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:58 AM

        I was recently comparing Premier Gold and Integra Gold for a long-term investment (not trading). I decided on Integra Gold – it might be worth a look for you.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:00 AM

          Premier Gold and Integra Gold are both in the SPOCK portfolio (posted below by myself)

          Jan 09, 2016 09:08 AM

          Brian, technically, integra meets my criteria currently—I haven’t followed it recently but I can see technically at this time why you should be a little excited about it.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:45 AM

    Al, are the consumers they poll.. intelligent…?

      Jan 09, 2016 09:16 PM

      Which consumers, Sally?

    Jan 09, 2016 09:59 AM

    I dont recollect Gary stating any number of how much the S&P can rise….
    did you just say 80x…. Im sure he didn’t say any such thing…
    you sound adversarial….

      Jan 09, 2016 09:14 PM

      Definitely not adversarial and I will check past interviews.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:36 AM

    I just want to advise ppl. on developments in GBN.V. This company may be going for a Going Private Transaction. All the elements are in place for this to occur. This bears some watching, because I believe other companies will do the same, notably RMX.TO. In order for your position to remain alive, you have to obtain enough shares to be in the top 50 shareholders. Going private means you cannot trade your position, as your remaining stock after consolidation will be privately held. Gold companies may resort to this type of strategy, given the crisis in mining share valuations. The two majority shareholders are Netolitzky and Sprott. Presumed if you have 1m.+ shares that you are in the top 50. It’s a story that bears watching as this is probably going to happen to any company engaged in a scorched earth policy:

    Jan 09, 2016 09:40 AM

    What a terrible start to the year. Worse start in history. A picture says a thousand words. a chart of The Dry Baltic Index tells you the state of the economy. In the conventional markets path of least resistance is down. What if next week is the same as this week. Panic could set in. At some point this year were going to see a crash. This is US election year. In 2000 the dotcom bubble busted and the markets crashed. George Bush was elected. He gets two terms and encourages everyone to invest in housing. Then in election year 2008 the housing markets crash. Barack Obama gets elected. He gets two terms and encourages everyone to take on massive amounts of debt. Now were in election year. I cant see us getting though the year without a debt crash. The writing is on the wall. If gold is a fear trade. I would back up the truck.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:25 AM


      Everyone is thinking about the Baltic Index from the point of view that the only thing that affects it is lack of demand but for certain there has been a giant increase in the level of supply coming on line.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:52 AM

        Not sure the reliability of the information. I heard from a Chinese blogger that China has added huge amount of ships in both number and size since early 2000 to ensure the shipping cost stays minimum and therefore Chinese goods are not priced out of market. I never verified the correctness of the information.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:05 AM

          I THINK … is the ships that are HUGE………..just read yesterday, there is a story concerning the widening of the Panama canal……..and the various EAST COAST ports which are in the process of deepening their ports to accommodate the HUGE SHIPS
          ……..Charleston,SC, New Orleans, Savanna,…. This is going to be HUGE.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:38 AM

            True story, FFM. It’s part of the US infrastructure projects that are about to begin. That’s why copper just double bottomed. That’s why WOOD just did it’s final washout. That’s why uranium and steel have just bottomed.
            It’s also why EDC,YINN and RUSL have or are at bottom.

            PMs, miners and Oil still are in crush mode.

            The DOW is probably going to hit the 5,500 area. It’s completely toast!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:40 AM

            $5500? Start digging your foxhole!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:17 AM

            Chartster……….thanks for the reply. Copper and steel. I think I am going to save my wheat pennies, and double my money………..Noticed two days ago a penny at the FLORIDA coin action a steel penny, went for $2.4 million…….one of nine……lol

            Jan 09, 2016 09:19 AM

            Interestingly enough, Doc and his daughter were there

            Jan 09, 2016 09:29 AM

            THE Florida auction is one of the big one’s for the year…..

            Jan 09, 2016 09:30 AM

            I get all the catalogs for the auctions…….being associated with Heritage , I will share them with you sometime………………..ootb

            Jan 09, 2016 09:35 AM

            Did DOC buy anything………..I was bidding on some large cents and colonial copper for my collection, but,” who cares”………………lol

            Jan 09, 2016 09:56 AM

            Think where the DOW was before QE. It was 6,500. The unwinding of QE and portfolio managers moving into commodities and emerging markets makes 5,500 seem like a high estimate!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:23 PM

            I sold my colonial collection about 5 years ago; almost held onto a MS-63 Fugio.
            I used to buy almost exclusively from Coin Rarities Online (CRO).

            Jan 09, 2016 09:37 PM

            Brian………check out the heritage auction , they just sold some fugio s…..might make you rather ill ……..Btw, one of my email address is has fugio…..In the name, I use it when buying. Love the colonials. , was trying to buy a pine tree sixpence .

            Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM

            Brian…….How are the folks at CRO…. to work with…..thanks ……..

            Jan 09, 2016 09:15 PM

            The people at CRO were the best coin dealers in the business, in my experience. No nonsense, ethical, honest (with markups and buy backs), and really good sense of humor.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:37 PM


            Jan 09, 2016 09:58 PM

            Frank, yes I did make some purchases at the Tampa Heritage auction. I go to 2-3 auctions a year and purchase the set of coins I’m filling out.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:19 PM

            DOC…….thanks for the reply………hope you get your collection filled. You’re lucky your daughter shares the same hobby. Btw, Did Owl, give you that Ultra High Relief I mailed to ya……………

            Jan 09, 2016 09:55 PM

            Owl certainly did!

          Jan 09, 2016 09:44 AM


          For certain China added hugh ships and a lot of them. While the BDI is important, it is not only a measure of demand, it is also a measure of supply and right now there is way too much supply.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:50 PM

            I think you are right. China was not big in both shipping and ship making industry before 2000 and now they are huge in both areas. I think China and Korea add together is more than 70% of the world ship building industry. China has built many super tankers in recent years.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:52 PM

            Thanks Dragonite I did not know that.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:12 AM

        Bob, it is always great having you here.
        I believe almost everyone however realizes there is much supply…. please
        be on the thread lots more.
        Thank you Doc for the miners names… very helpful coming from you-

        Jan 09, 2016 09:52 AM

        I agree a lot of supply has come online but this index has been a great indicator in the past of how the economy is doing. If the economy is strong this index would not be that low.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:27 PM

        +1 Bob re: your Baltic Index comment.
        Best as always,

          Jan 09, 2016 09:40 PM

          The dry baltic index has always been a good indicator of how the economy is doing. It’s funny listening to the guys that say that indicator isn’t relevant this time around. It does matter. It tells you this economy is dead. Obviously the demand for raw goods is not what the market predicted or you wouldn’t have so many empty ships.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:07 PM

            Ronny, you can end up with empty ships due to falling demand or due to too many ships being built. We have both. In fact, even the 2008 plunge in the BDI was exacerbated by all the new ships being built.

            In 2000, global capacity was 4.3 million TEUs.
            By 2009 it had nearly tripled to 12.1 million TEUs.
            By 2014 it had grown by another 50%+ to 19.9 million TEUs.

            Today, capacity stands at over 20 million TEUs.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:15 PM

            Btw, capacity in 1993 was just 1.5 million TEUs. So capacity has grown by 13.33 times in just 22 years. Heck, you’d think the Fed was printing ships with that kind of growth.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:17 PM

            Thanks for the numbers. This is exactly what I think. Just to add, this is also true with a lot of base metals. It is also true with oil even the supply is added by political reasons. For these market, paper contract is not dominant so supply and demand does matter.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:20 PM

            Ha ha. FED did not print ships but Chinese did. China also “printed” a lot of consumer goods so a lot of those prices came down. I remember how much I paid for a simple computer in early 90s and how much I have to save to buy TV and cameras.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:14 PM


            Excellent point on the growth in tonnage. I didn’t realize it was that much. I do believe the world is in recession but with those numbers, I’d say oversupply is bigger issue than under demand.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:04 PM

            Pretty good point Ronny

            Jan 09, 2016 09:57 PM

            Wow, 3D printing and new ships. Never considered that one. I saw a video from China on how they were building single story housing using 3D printing techniques with cement. It was AMAZING. The house went up in no time at all and hardly any people were involved in its creation. If they start that with ship building the BDI will never go back up to old levels.

            3D House Construction

            Jan 09, 2016 09:18 PM

            This was a very interesting thread on the Baltic Dry Index, it’s relevance, and how the sheer volume of new ships and capacity over 20 million TEUs has spiked the supply side. The Fed printing ships comments made me laugh.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:46 AM

    TOPIC: 4 stages theory (Weinstein Model) -This is the newest SPOCK chart:

    o Lakeshore Gold (owned by myself) added (Stage 1)
    The following stocks (owned by myself) are being tracked, but not added yet:
    o Pretium (Stage 1)
    o Klondex (Stage 1)

    Interesting that a Stage 4 silver miner (TAHO) and Gold Streaming (RGLD) were added


      Jan 09, 2016 09:20 PM

      Thanks Brian. I am liking these SPOCK charts. I’m a fan of Lakeshore Gold, Pretium, Klondex, Tahoe, and Royal Gold. I have a nice little position in Klondex at present that did well last week.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:13 AM

    Brian, I just purchased a little PRETIUM about one week ago. Klondex is not going anywhere fast anytime soon so I’ll look for a good entry point sometime between now and the spring when it should seek its’ next low.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:22 PM

      Klondex is one of a handful of stocks I have for the short-term PM rally and then am selling it into the strength. I believe if Gold continues up for another week or two that it has some upside left, but then agree it will likely head down lower as the year progresses. At that point I’ll buy it back.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:34 AM

    It’s a pity Gary is not here anymore. Al, Cory, I hope you’ll be able to get him back on the show at least on an invitation basis as I really liked his analysis, views and personal flavour.

    His latest comments on the 7yr-cycle low potential of the conventional markets are definitely worth watching. See his blog “Crash Potential” of Jan.7

      Jan 09, 2016 09:54 AM

      Agree. Without him we are missing an important part.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:09 AM

        I doubt Gary wants to return…. go to his site
        plus Al misquoted him on this thread…

          Jan 09, 2016 09:55 AM

          I do not see some of the trolls…….since he left………..

            Jan 09, 2016 09:52 AM

            Yes, and Ian’ t that interesting. The. Forum is also much more efficient, Frank

          Jan 09, 2016 09:02 PM

          Where did I misquote Gary?

            Jan 09, 2016 09:45 PM

            You didn’t……this is what she dose on here!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:46 PM


            Jan 10, 2016 10:33 AM

            I heard you say the market according to Gary … would increases by 80x…
            Gary has a response to yr stating that in your interview w Doc..
            I don’t have any agenda here mark… at least I don’t repeat the same sentence over & over like a broken record…

            Jan 10, 2016 10:56 AM

            Are you actually Gary? Remember we did not ask Gary to leave. He left because many on our site disagreed with him including Doc.

            Now please Sally just what is your problem?

            Jan 10, 2016 10:33 AM

            Go girl! You tell him.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:01 AM

    This Is The $3.5 Trillion “Neutron Bomb” That Keeps Kyle Bass Up At Night
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 – 22:57
    “… what we are going to see next is a credit cycle, and in a credit cycle you see some losses, but if China’s banking system loses 10%, you are going to see them lose $3.5 trillion.”

    Jan 09, 2016 09:23 AM

    If you’re in possession of physical PMs find a safe haven for most of them in the event of…..

    Scroll down to Alasdair Macleod on Reluctant Preppers

    Jan 09, 2016 09:33 AM

    The NYSE Composite Index has now closed at its lowest level since October, 2013 but is still slightly above its August 2015 intraday low (dashed red line on chart):

    Jan 09, 2016 09:55 AM

    Bob Moriarty…..the markets are not irrational. Rick Ackerman yesterday said it best
    yesterday when he said, “we are in a full blown bear market”.

    Rick is educating everyone but the 99 percenters don’t want to heed what he is saying.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:35 AM

      Thanks Salami.

      How could anyone claim that we are not in a bear market. All in your definition I guess!

        Jan 09, 2016 09:43 AM

        Al, the name is Samaki. Do I call you by another name?
        For a guy that calls others out for vitriol, you sure know how to throw it out.
        I am going by Rick’s definition of a bear market and referencing what he said.
        BTW, many are saying this is just a market correction and not a bear market.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:52 AM

          Samaki, I bet Al’s device has “auto correct” turned on. I doubt very much that he did that on purpose.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:21 PM


            Jan 09, 2016 09:30 PM

            Disregard my post above with lmao..its not where it was intended to be.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:33 PM


            I humbly suggest you relax.
            Big Al would never do that on purpose. Not his style.

            Chill out. As Cesar Millan would say “Jazz Music”.


            Jan 09, 2016 09:12 PM

            Thanks . LPG

            Jan 09, 2016 09:28 PM

            Matthew – agreed it was likely unintentional.

            Glenfidish – no laughing on the wrong thread. 🙂

            LPG – Stay Jazzy….

          Jan 09, 2016 09:54 PM

          Samaki, I doubt Al offended you deliberately. He has been having trouble typing since his stroke last year. He has made an incredible recovery so far and we are all grateful he is still here.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:29 PM

            +1 Big Al – hope your recovery is going well sir.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:28 AM


          Jan 09, 2016 09:42 PM

          Oh me gosh, what a good chuckle..
          I’m sure it was all a mistake.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:02 PM

            It’s amazing what a slip of the finger can do. Indeed, Chartster, it was a funny mistake.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:37 PM

            Home made salami though……oh yeah, yummo.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:30 PM

            I just laughed, and then got up and made some salami, cheese, and crackers. Delicious.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:43 PM

          Mr. Samaki,

          I am sure Big Al meant no harm. At least that is what I believe.

          It must have been a spell checker error or typo.

          Speaking of spell checkers I got a funny story for you boys.

          In college I had a professor named Sutton. I wrote a paper for his class and sited several of his writings. My word processing software’s spell checker changed his name to Satan! 🙁 Truly the spell checker from HELL! 🙂 I guess I had the not so perfect version of Word Perfect.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:45 PM


            Hah! Cited. See, another typo.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:39 PM

            I guess not, Eddie!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:32 PM

            Funny Ebolan…..”spell checker from Hell!”

      Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM


      You just made a claim I have never heard before. Of course markets are irrational. If they were 100% rational, prices would be perfect all the time and we know that is not true.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:34 PM

        +1 Bob.

        I think I’m on auto- repeat mode: “+1 Bob” here… “+1 Bob” there

        Best to you,


    Jan 09, 2016 09:56 AM

    Dang, you boys see this? 🙂

    Standoff in Texas Park!

    Jan 09, 2016 09:00 AM

    We won’t see a 70X increase in markets. That is way beyond the realm of possibility, but we will see the Dow well above 20,000 and maybe as high as 30,000 before the final top.

    While we are likely to drop enough to technically signal a bear market (-20%) it’s not going to be a long term bear. The 7 year cycle is way too right translated for a multi-year bear market to be starting now. My best guess is a test of the 1550-1600 level in the S&P. It will be the move to stretch the market far enough to the downside to get everyone bearish, cleanse 6 years of bullish sentiment, and generate the fuel (along with QE4) for the market to give us the final bubble phase.

    Basically we need the market to do the same thing as it did in 1998. As most will recall it seemed like the world was going to come to an end in 98. The collapse of LTCM threatened to bring down the global financial system. Instead it set the stage for one of the largest bubbles in history. The same thing will happen this time. At the final 7 YCL it’s going to look like the world is coming to an end. That’s exactly what we need to set the stage for the last leg up in this bull market.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:45 PM

      As I told Al on Thursday, this is not 1998:

      I talked about the potential for 19,000 Dow here about 3 years ago before it had even taken out its 2007 high. The fact that it did not reach that level before reversing is just typical bearish bear market action. The same can be said about the fact that it did not reach the upper median line of the blue pitchfork in the above linked chart.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:57 PM

        I agree that this is not 1998. This is much more serious.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:10 PM

          I’ll be willing to bet another steak dinner on it. I need to recover my loss to Doc. 🙂

          Although so far I did get the bottom in minres correct. Just didn’t expect the lower low in gold.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:10 PM

            Gary, would you go “double or nothing” with me?—- but we would have to lay out the parameters of the bet. You could be specific in what you feel will happen and then I could look at it and decide whether or not I disagree—if I disagree, the bet would be on; if I agree then there’s no sense to bet. Of course we could always bet ”
            french fries to go with my steak. I should have bet that with AVI on market direction for January.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:22 PM

            Technically probably a bear market as I think the S&P will likely go to 1550. But it will be over sometime this year, maybe even as quick as the end of January if the crash continues. Then it’s off to the races and big new highs after that. At least 20,000 on the Dow and maybe over 30,000.

            Almost no chance of an extended bear market like we had in 2001 and in 2008. Just a very scary correction to get everyone on the wrong side of the boat and create the condtions neccessary for the bubble phase to begin.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:54 PM

            Thanks Gary, time will tell. “Sometime this year” is an interesting time frame!

            Jan 09, 2016 09:23 PM

            Here’s the video explaining why this isn’t a long term bear market.


            Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM

            Okay, to summarize, the bottom of this move down will be in before the end of the year and we start a move to the blowoff top. To put more “meat on this bone” we would have to have some parameter of how high the market would be by the end of 2017 since I might not have enough years left to see the blow off top of 20,000 to 30,000.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:37 PM

            Gary – Good video.

            Doc, take care of yourself, we want you with us for years to come. I’ve heard a steady diet of Steaks and Fries is the key to longevity…. 🙂

      Jan 09, 2016 09:50 PM

      This 7 year cycle low will surprise many. QE is about to be unwound and that won’t bode well for the ” buy the dip folks “. The conventional markets are going to hit lows unimaginable for many. Even you.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:30 AM

    CLGRF weekly looks fantastic but I am more excited about plays that offer that optionality discussed in segment 5.

    However, I’m not interested in the very low grade high capex huge deposits. Those will do best near the end of a raging bull when there’s lots of dumb money chasing starry-eyed stories.

    I much prefer deposits that were recently economically feasible but became “worthless” due to the price of gold and especially silver declining below the cost of production. The re-rating of these deposits as they pop “into the money” can provide very quick, big gains. In fact, the big gains will start as soon as the metals have bottomed as the market will anticipate the inevitable.

    As an aside, this might be, at least in part, the thinking behind Alexco keeping the drills turning and essentially doubling their high grade silver resource since 2011. I am one shareholder that is in no hurry to get production going again. Growing the “bank” in the ground and producing when silver is much higher seems like a far better strategy to me. For those who prefer production despite the associated added risks, miners like Americas Silver will offer plenty of leverage to the metal price.

    Many miners offer this “optionality” but it’s more common on the silver side (as a percentage of the field).

      Jan 09, 2016 09:49 AM
      Jan 09, 2016 09:16 PM

      Alexco and Americas Silver are quite similar when trying to decide which to invest in
      1. Both about 3000% away from previous highs.
      2. Both have a Market Cap around $US 22M
      3. Both can produce between 4-5 million ounces per year at full capacity (The big difference is the grade, of course, with Alexco’s being about 750 g/t (25 opt)

      I admit to being an Alexco fan-boy, but have started buying back into my Americas Silver position

        Jan 09, 2016 09:30 PM

        I own plenty of both. AXU carries a bit of a premium (based on book value) compared to SPM probably partly because of the following:
        -the environmental cleanup business it has;
        -it’s in Canada;
        -it’s very high grade;
        -it has almost one-fifth as many shares out

        Jan 10, 2016 10:07 AM

        I like both companies Brian. I have a growing position in Americas Silver and plan on adding a position in Alexco when we get the final leg down in PMs. I’m don’t anticipate much time left in the counter-trend rally in PMs at present (maybe 1-2 weeks?) They both have a nice popcorn pop-ability potential.

        I’ve also recently starting building a profitable position in Silvercorp. Matthew or Brian, do you have any thoughts on Silvercorp?

          Jan 10, 2016 10:37 AM

          I am really struggling with my final silver company picks (currently producing or near-producers). I prefer pure Canadian or US companies. Most of the silver opportunities are in Mexico. If I had to pick one Mexican producer it would probably be first Majestic.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:38 AM

            Yep. First Majestic is one of the more pure silver mining plays there is, and they just picked up one of the best….Silvercrest. The combined company will rock.

            Mag Silver continues to shine, and I am excited to see how things develop with Silvercorp. Silvercorp is mostly in China for some diversification.

            I continue to be a fan of companies with a nice Gold/Silver ratio & some base metals like Avino Silver & Gold, Mandalay Resources, Sierra Metals, Sabina Gold & Silver, Klondex, McEwen, Paramount Gold & Silver, and Hochschild Mining. Some of them are in Mexico but also have assests spread around a little more geographically in South America, US, Canada, Australia, and Europe.

            Matthew is correct that Impact Silver will likely pop much more on a percentage basis once things recover as well. Other silver companies that may recover and then surge are Minco, Mines Managment, Excellon, Starcore International, the reorganized Aurcana, AZ mining, and maybe even Santacruz. These all need a bit higher silver prices above $18 to make a sustained comeback.

            I also think for the Mid tier companies that Endeavour, Fortuna, and even Great Panther will do well once Silver recovers. I’ve been in Hecla for year and will continue to hold it longer term.

            On the bigger Silver companies there have been very constructive improvements at Pan American Silver, Silver Standard Resources, Tahoe Resources, and even Coeur is getting their act together. Silver Wheaton is unique as a streamer, but once it bottoms, it will be a long term hold for me.

            For the speculative explorers & near term producers I like Bear Creek Mining, Trevali Mining, Comstock Mining, Dolly Varden, Bayhorse, Mirasol, Northhair Silver, and Kootenay. Then there are other speculative explorers I am waiting to see how they develop like Orex minerals, Nicola Mining (previously Huldra Silver), El Tigre, Avrupa, Aura Silver, Apogee Silver, Levon Resources, Silver Range, Silver Bull, and whatever happens to Defiance Silver.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:01 AM

            Correction: Trevali should have been in the small producers section, but I was cutting and pasting a lot when I wrote that and didn’t move them. I think they are an interesting developing story, with 2 mines going in Peru & Canada, a bigger Zinc exposure, a 3rd mine developing, and a 4th exploration target. I don’t have a position in them, but have been watching them hit milestones and feel like they may come out of this survival mode and start to thrive.


          Jan 10, 2016 10:26 AM

          I do not follow Silvercorp but the chart alone tells me it is a worthy bet right now.

          If you’re not placing huge money, I’d buy Impact Silver before First Majestic. I know it’s an apples and oranges comparison in terms of size but I like Impact’s potential. They haven’t spent much money on getting their 43-101 resources but the resources are there, no doubt about it. They even managed to turn a profit last quarter. It was a tiny profit, but to turn any profit at around $14 silver is a good thing. It means that IPT is now “at the money” and that any rise in the silver price going forward will go straight to their bottom line.
          Americas Silver, on the other hand, lost $4.8 million last quarter despite getting their AISC down 23% to $16.45/oz.

          The subtle turnaround in IPT is apparent when it is priced in Americas Silver:

          IPT is 100% more SPM since August even though both are down since then in dollars.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:27 AM

          Oops, I triggered “moderation” so here’s my comment in two parts:

          I do not follow Silvercorp but the chart alone tells me it is a worthy bet right now.

          If you’re not placing huge money, I’d buy Impact Silver before First Majestic. I know it’s an apples and oranges comparison in terms of size but I like Impact’s potential. They haven’t spent much money on getting their 43-101 resources but the resources are there, no doubt about it. They even managed to turn a profit last quarter. It was a tiny profit, but to turn any profit at around $14 silver is a good thing. It means that IPT is now “at the money” and that any rise in the silver price going forward will go straight to their bottom line.
          Americas Silver, on the other hand, lost $4.8 million last quarter despite getting their AISC down 23% to $16.45/oz.

          The subtle turnaround in IPT is apparent when it is priced in Americas Silver:

            Jan 10, 2016 10:28 AM

            IPT is 100% more SPM since August even though both are down since then in dollars.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:29 AM

            Should read: IPT is *worth* 100% more…

            Jan 10, 2016 10:54 AM

            Thanks for the thoughts on both Silvercorp and Impact Silver. Yes, Dragonite’s comments had me looking at Silvercorp again, and I like that their mines are blowing and going in China, and think they have some room to run.

            I didn’t see your comments yet when I was writing to Brian above, but also believe Impact Silver will do well, and appreciated you bringing them to our attention. What I didn’t realize is that they did turn a small profit at current prices. That is very promising indeed. Maybe if there is a continuation of the PM rally for the next week or so, I’ll sell some of my Americas Silver position and put some into Impact so I have a little bet on both horses.

            Here’s 3 more that would be fun to discuss, if you get the time. I’d enjoy hearing any feedback on:

            1) Sierra Metals – We’ve discussed it briefly in the past. It is a poly-metallic miner with 3 producing mines for silver, copper, lead, zinc, and gold. They get very little fanfare, and must not have a great marketing department, but they seem to have a great business growing.

            2) Trevali Mining – Zinc, Lead, Silver and just put their Caribou Mine in production the end of last year, and have the Santander Mine already producing. They took a big hit the last few years, but I’m bullish on Zinc, and think this may help them out.

            3) Starcore International – They are more of a Gold company, with their San Martin Gold Mine, but also have substantial silver credits at that mine. They also have the Altiplano Gold-Silver Toll Processing agreement, and huge exploration project in NV.

            These have peaked my interest lately.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:04 AM

            I posted a link to Trevali Minings corporate presentation up above in a response to Brian.

            As for Sierra Metals here is their corporate presentation:


            Jan 10, 2016 10:04 AM

            Here is the Starcore International fact sheet:


            Jan 10, 2016 10:11 AM

            Here is the corporate presentation on Silvercorp:


            Jan 10, 2016 10:45 AM

            I’ll take a look in about 30 minutes but first I have to see what happened last night at the Supercross season opener main event:

            Jan 10, 2016 10:08 PM

            Yeah you’re right. The Supercross is more interesting. OK, I’m done being a mining nerd today, and am going to get away from this computer and do something constructive…… Have a great rest of the weekend.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:40 PM

            Ok, this probably won’t be a surprise but based on my minimal DD, I like tiny Starcore the best of the three. It trades at 4.25x FCF (free cash flow); .42x sales; .21x book value and has 5.35x more cash than debt. At this time, I also like that its focus is on gold and silver.
            I also feel more comfortable with its exposure to Mexico, the U.S. and Canada.

            I don’t like Trevali’s debt (14x more debt than cash) and negative FCF, but the weekly chart suggests that it might’ve already bottomed even if a retest of the low is necessary. It is very liquid for a $138M stock and trades at just .43x book and 1.26x sales (Sierra Metals trades at .97x book and 1.28x sales while IPT trades at .18x book and .64x sales -source: Yahoo Finance).
            Sierra Metals is in good financial shape with $15.6M in FCF; $32M in cash and $77M in debt —which is probably why it trades at .97x book value (speaking of good financial shape, CRJ is at 1.17x while RIC is a steep 1.93x).

            I actually like zinc a little further out so accumulating TV and SMT would make sense. Any worries about Peru?

            Jan 10, 2016 10:34 PM

            Thanks for your thoughts Matthew. Yes Starcore is a nice little company, and I figured you’d like the smallest miner best 🙂 There is the most room for exponential appreciation with it.

            Trevali just seems like it’s worst days are behind it and the second mine just started production, which should help with the debt load, but I didn’t realize it was as bad as it is. Yes, the zinc grades make it unique and somewhat attractive for late 2016/early 2017 valuations.

            Maybe I’m a dope, but Sierra Metals has looked attractive to me for quite a while. I traded it twice this year with the idea of holding it longer term, but ended up selling it into rallies both times. I like their financials far better than many companies, that they have proven they can operate multiple projects at once successfully, and I believe they are hidden gem that few follow (for now). They remind me of Mandalay Resources.

            Yes Peru and all of S. America scares me when it comes to taxation, mine nationalization, and governments that still don’t seem to get how to attract foreign investment, but they’ve been operating there long enough to have good relations. Argentina scares me more than Peru, but even they may have turned the corner. Chile is a great country, and Brazil is so-so. Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay have potential.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:53 PM

            Once again, thanks for the comparison to Impact Silver when looking at the book values compared to some of the peers. Impact is attractive on several different metrics and I’m definitely going to average in. I’ll likely reduce down some of my exposure to Americas Silver if it rallies in the next week or two, and reallocate some of that into Impact. Americas Silver does concern me if metal prices stay low for too long, but it is has really been beat up here, and they have multiple mines going, made a good acquisition at the end of 2014 by acquiring US Silver & Gold, and will be doing great if Silver & the base metals just get a little bump. As you mentioned they did reduce their overall cost per ounce down to $16.45, and it may get close to $16 by the end of the first quarter, but alas, Silver has been hovering right around $14 for a while.

            What I like about Silvercorp is that they have an Silver AISC of $12.40 and big reserves, and a few recent exploration successes. They are also about to start a share buy-back process for 2016.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:03 PM

            Sierrra Metals has attractive cash costs:

            •Copper EqPound Produced: $1.57
            •Silver Eq. Ounce Produced: $10.47 (with the overall Silver cash cost at $10.82)

            ….but their AISC is $12.15 per Silver equivalent ounce…. So at least they can survive this commodity rout.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:55 PM

            Rounding out the discussion on All-In Sustaining Costs on Silver miners:

            Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) = $11.99 AISC
            (and is dropping each quarter due to efficiencies)

            Mandalay Resources (MND.TO) or (MNDJF) = $15.85 AISC @ Cerro Bayo, $777 Gold AISC @ Costerfield, and $1022 AISC @ Björkdal

            Alexco (AXU) = $19 AISC from 2nd quarter 2013 when in production, but with the cost improvements they have targeted around $14 AISC for when they resume production, which is a big improvement.

            First Majestic (AG) = $14.25 Overall AISC (range of $17.33 to $8.17 at their mines)

            Fresnillo PLC (FRES.L) or (FNLPF) = $11.10 overall AISC

            Jan 10, 2016 10:00 PM

            Well that explains Sierra Metals nice free cash flow. You’re not a dope 🙂
            I agree about Americas Silver but the big risk is likely dilution, not bankruptcy (unless of course, silver really surprises us by staying very low for a very long time).

            Jan 10, 2016 10:11 PM

            Wow, Avino is impressive at 11.99 if true. I think the best measure is to look at profitability.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:28 PM

            I remember in an interview from Avino Silver & Gold, that when they get the new tailings facility and can mine the old tailings material, and tweak out a few more things on their primary and secondary assets that they believe by 2017/2018 that they can get AISC down to $8-$10. That got my attention.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:36 PM

            From the most recent Nov 9th, 2015 press release from Avino Silver & Gold:

            “Consolidated all-in sustaining cash cost per AgEq ounce1 was $11.99 in the third quarter of 2015 compared to $13.01 in the third quarter of 2014”


      Jan 09, 2016 09:30 PM

      Thanks Matthew: ‘Growing the bank’ – I’d not thought of it in that light before.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:22 PM

        Hi Andrew,

        The huge declines in the shares in recent years were due in very large part to huge write-downs as those “banks” went below their cost of production. Billions in of dollars of in-situ value disappeared.

        When those billions start to reappear due to a rising gold/silver price, owning large, “near the money” deposits will do more for your gains than owning a similarly sized producer that’s sitting on a deposit that’s already economic (or “in the money”). Yes, it too would enjoy an increase in the value of its deposit along with increased profitability, but it would not be going from no value to substantial value — and that’s where the leverage comes from.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:13 AM

          I completely agree with this overall point Matthew, and as mentioned above believe Alexco and Americas Silver to both have nice popcorn pop-ability potentials. The reason is they are forgotten and left for dead at present, but with marginally higher prices in Silver around $18-$19, then they’ll go from zero to hero in no time.

          For now, I like playing the counter-trend rallies with more established producers that get at least nice boost on rebounding metals, but mostly due to liquidity and tighter bid/ask spreads. Once the final bottoms seem to be in for 2016, then I’ll be going heavier into the smaller producers or near producers that will spring to life with slightly higher metal prices.


            Jan 10, 2016 10:16 AM

            After a strong foundation in those, then I’ll also get into some of the Optionality plays like Novagold, Pretium, International Tower Hill, or Exeter.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:14 AM

          V. interesting insights Matthew, thanks.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:12 PM

    Here, I’m going to let my man Peter Schiff explain the whole situation to you!

    Oh and Birdman………you ain’t seen nothing yet, WAIT TIL NEXT WEEK!

      Jan 09, 2016 09:28 PM

      Thanks Mark – I’ve always liked Schiff. According to Kitco 50% of those on Wall st now like gold along with a further 66% of those polled on main st.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:30 PM

        Thanks……..he broke it all down, didn’t he?

        Jan 09, 2016 09:50 PM

        Rev… that simply does NOT tally w all other sentiment readings..

          Jan 09, 2016 09:11 PM


      Jan 09, 2016 09:29 PM

      Remember, I don’t have to be in the year 2018 to learn that we are already in a recession/ depression right now in 2016!

    Jan 09, 2016 09:19 PM

    Comments all around are more interesting than the show…I mean that positively-

      Jan 09, 2016 09:01 PM

      We belong to a very intelligent family Sally.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:05 PM

        Kind of funny Al. Who is Sally?

          Jan 09, 2016 09:39 PM

          Agatha I believe Bird and my spell check will not allow me to print t that unless I jump through a bunch of hoops

            Jan 10, 2016 10:41 AM

            Al is trying to be annoying… he knows my name is Agatha…

            Jan 10, 2016 10:53 AM

            Your Emil address clearly is Sally Lambert.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:03 PM

            I thought Agatha used to post as Sally didn’t she?

            The question is: Are you the Sally the soccer mom that Chris Temple references or are you really 92 years old in a nursing home and eating happy pills?

            Jan 11, 2016 11:42 AM

            OK Al, that is highly inappropriate. You just breached confidentiality and standards set by most sites by revealing Agatha’s real name. If you ever do the same to me we will see each other in court.

            And you can GOD DAMNED be sure of that.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:15 AM

            This Weekend Show is copy pasted for the record. You are welcome to contact me Agatha. I am on your side on this one and I do not give a flying f*uck what Al Korelin thinks about it.

            i will look you up on Facebook if you have a page. We can talk off-line further.

            In the meantime I would advise every single person who posts here anonymously and has revealed their name to the people who run this site to seriously reconsider doing any further posting.

            I would advise a permanent boycott since they have decided to breach personal confidentiality. You can do as you please but you have no personal protection any longer as Al Korelin is now revealing names.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:36 AM

            Just between you and I Al, I think what you did in your comment above to Agatha was despicable and reprehensible. Probably nobody here will see this objection of mine or any of the others I left today but that is no matter.

            I just want you to know exactly how I feel. Naming her publicly was just rotten.

            Pathetic actually. What a small man you appear to be suddenly

    Jan 09, 2016 09:47 PM

    ******** BIG AL, you asked me during the week if I had seen the Richard Fisher interview on CNBC……..yes I did and I was outraged by his comments and admission of all the rigging by the Fed. I wanted to comment on here but I was not sure how you would have received my outrage and anger so I did not! This just proves that Gary was right, I was right and those like myself are right about all of this manipulation! The whole game is rigged and it is all about to collapse because of it’s self and from all of the evil it lives on!

      Jan 09, 2016 09:55 PM

      A lot of folks ate outraged.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:25 PM

        Yeah but Al……….what would you have done if I came on here and in my usual fashion expressed that outrage?

          Jan 09, 2016 09:33 PM

          Absolutely nothing, Mark

    Jan 09, 2016 09:52 PM

    I think Mr Fisher w paid to say that.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:02 PM

      I don’t know about paid but I also thought the interview was a plant to steer the market a certain way and deflate equities. Why exactly is unknown. Follow the money I suppose because this is always about money. Notice how he smirked through the entire interview. Like a cat with a bird in his teeth. He was cavalier and arrogant rather than contrite and apologetic.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:18 PM

        Oh my God Birdman……….still looking for excuses when the truth is staring you right in the face!

          Jan 09, 2016 09:19 PM


            Jan 09, 2016 09:42 PM

            In my book, there was nothing new in this interview.
            Nor was there any value-added.

            * Fed “front loaded” markets ? —-> we all know that. Just need to see what they did. Duhh.
            * Fed cared about wealth effect ? –> of course, check ZIRP. Duhhhh.
            * Markets could be in a digestive/transition period after a massive run. Really ? Duuuhhhh.

            * China transition of its economy —> everyone knows that. Duhhhh.

            * Many fund managers raising cash ? —> it’s obvious. Duhhhhh.

            There was ZERO value added in this interview. Coz there was nothing new we didn’t know already. Nothing.

            Much ado about nothing.

            My 2cts.


            Jan 11, 2016 11:43 AM

            That is your opinion LPG. Aside from the obvious insult to everyone here including me you might consider that most people thought those comments were highly provocative coming from a Fed member.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:35 PM

          Mark, we do stress civility. I know that with your intelligence that is no problem for you.


            Jan 11, 2016 11:45 AM

            BS Al. You have been insulting your bloggers quite a bit lately and have beeb uncivil to Gary. Agatha was correct in her assessment of your remarks.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:17 PM


    Jan 09, 2016 09:19 PM


      Jan 09, 2016 09:04 PM

      Come back into to fold. I know we have disagreed, but always enjoy your comments and take on things.
      Not kidding, I would like to hear your input.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:20 PM

    If you dance next week like you did last week…………sorry man…………you are a FOOL!

    Jan 09, 2016 09:29 PM

    Uh Gentlemen, right now……next week is not looking good!

      Jan 09, 2016 09:47 PM

      Not like good as in good,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but next week will be bad as in bad!

    Jan 09, 2016 09:31 PM

    OKAY…………the NFL payoffs are on……………..

      Jan 09, 2016 09:42 PM

      Drawn back with the sheep……………….lol

        Jan 09, 2016 09:45 PM

        just joking……..

          Jan 09, 2016 09:49 PM


            Jan 09, 2016 09:22 PM

            When you posted NFL……..the first thing that popped in my mind, ….was that the NFL, which is the entertainment of this generation(sheeple), is no different than the circus and gladiators of ancient ROME. Being drawn to the payoffs, is like the draw of the free circus……Just struck me funny at the time, sorry if I offended you.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:39 PM

            If I recall Frank, Plato said the intention of the games was to keep peoples minds off of whats important.

            Jan 09, 2016 09:47 PM

            This has nothing to do with what you’re talking about but Plato was a dirtball. He said:

            “When there is an income tax, the just man will pay more and the unjust less on the same amount of income.”

            Confucius, on the other hand, must have understood economics and more:

            “In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.”

            Jan 10, 2016 10:50 PM

            I totally agree. I tell my friends ,football is my only true form of sheepling. But I at least recognize it ,for what it is…

            Jan 10, 2016 10:59 PM


        Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM


        Jan 09, 2016 09:17 PM

        This sheep will be watching the Seahawks tomorrow at 10am wearing my hat and Jersey. Unfortunately it will not be free!

    Jan 09, 2016 09:36 PM

    Thank you LPG…you inspire honesty & confidence…have been wondering….
    ole Aggy who desires Marseille & bouillabaisse

      Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM

      If you come around, lemme know: we’ll go spear fishing and make our own bouillabaisse !

        Jan 09, 2016 09:02 PM

        Best and healthiest dish know b to man, LPG

    Jan 09, 2016 09:42 PM

    I wonder if China has started to fill their ghost cities yet. Some have apparently been sitting empty for years.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:01 PM

      Nope. Apparently they are knocking them down to give the ‘workers’ something to do rebuilding them again.

        Jan 09, 2016 09:43 PM

        Amazing. Wonders never cease. This is like the broken window theory to stimulate growth. So if you don’t get a big war that destroys assets from the past then instead you just set about breaking your own stuff to get people busy again.

        So I have a great idea to stimulate new consumption in the developed markets. what we need is for government to buy up all the second hand stuff that keeps flooding the market…then take it all to the landfill and either bury it or recycle it.

        Better yet, just make a huge fire and burn it all up.

        So the cash flows back to sellers to stimulate new buying and all the old stuff clogging up the arteries of the retail system gets purged in order to create shortages. Sounds pretty dumb I suppose.

        But it was done a few years back with old autos and just look at the boom we got in sales of new cars and trucks as a result. So there you go. We need a string of used goods shops from one end of the country to the other to buy up all the crap everyone so badly wants to sell.

        Voila, instant fresh demand.

          Jan 09, 2016 09:55 PM

          We can get the ball rolling by destroying all those horrid vinyl recliners, sofa-beds and chip wood coffee tables and dressers. After that we move on to water beds, shag carpets, defective cribs, crappy coffee makers and plastic lawn furniture. Lawn darts should all be melted down, baseball card collections turned back into pulp, old rusty tools turned back into pig iron. And then we can move on to disposing of millions of rubber tires, plastic knick-knacks, the billions of surplus cups and saucers cluttering up our homes and the mountains of spare parts that nobody even remembers what they are good for. That old dead tractor in the back 40…..melt it down! That rusty clunker with the smashed glass that’s missing a motor? Crush it! Lets get a move on this folks. We have a lot of junk we need to dispose of. Maybe a few hundred billion at a guess. What we need now is new stuff. Oh Brave New World!

        Jan 09, 2016 09:35 PM

        I found quite a few articles about this demolition. It is on the crowded center xi’an city. It was built in 1994 and finished in 1999. It was a factory and factory was moved away (china has been moving factories out of large cities). It has been vacant for 4 years since the area was rezoned from factory to office zone. It was approved to be demolished. These reports focus on the extreme difficulty of demolishing since an international hotel is only 15 meters away. It was done successfully. Seems no one talked about the reason like the zero hedge report. Instead the reports said it leaves space for valuable real estate space for office. It seems zero hedge always distort the facts.

        Jan 10, 2016 10:06 AM

        I bet they found……..contaminated CHINESE DRYWALL ………

    Jan 09, 2016 09:19 PM

    how about world trade center in NYC……

    Jan 09, 2016 09:28 PM

    The canary in the gold mine.
    The infamous DRDGOLD was one of the first to move at the beginning of the bull market in 2001,from the top it made in 2003 at $ 60 it went into the abyss and it reached about $ 1,5 over the last year.
    It broke to the upside resistance last week gaining about 25%.
    The company (and the stock) is one of the worst but it could be tell all of us that MAYBE something is happening in the Miners world.

      Jan 10, 2016 10:18 AM

      Good posts Mark Gix. Thanks.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:33 PM
    Jan 09, 2016 09:48 PM

    The COT report for last week was essentially a non-plus. There wasn’t a great swing one way or another.

      Jan 10, 2016 10:52 AM


      While the COTs didn’t reflect a change, the gold Cots remain especially supportive as would be true at a turn.

    Jan 09, 2016 09:52 PM

    Al, the name is Samaki.””

    Show Big Al respect dude!

      Jan 10, 2016 10:10 AM

      OWL, is trying to figure out if it is a new type of mushroom……..

    Jan 09, 2016 09:12 PM


    Jan 09, 2016 09:13 PM


    Jan 09, 2016 09:16 PM

    Ha Ha Ha!!! You are a clever girl Sarah! I just figured out the change you made to the site. New posts after hours don’t publish or register but neither do they tell you anymore they have been sent to moderation. So i can see what I recently wrote but nobody else can.

    Very Smart.

      Jan 09, 2016 09:18 PM

      My theory just got tripped up……

        Jan 10, 2016 10:17 PM

        Why is Birdman still on this post…….he posted yesterday………….WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Jan 10, 2016 10:59 PM

          These comments are rigged! 🙂

            Jan 10, 2016 10:44 PM

            they get rigged……..when someone gets the BOOT…………….

            Jan 10, 2016 10:20 PM

            Early in the morning in pre-posting, some big posters dump a bunch of comments…..

            It’s blog manipulation!!

            Jan 10, 2016 10:21 PM


          Jan 11, 2016 11:49 AM

          Don’t worry Mark. I am about to abandon this site because of what Al just did to Agatha. What a fuc*ing creep. I have just about lost all respect for him and the freaks that populate this piece of sh*t blog. That includes you.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:05 AM

            Birdman, I don’t know what you are taking about, I was referring to all of the post being out of sync on here, when you post a comment they are not posting in the right time order…….and as for Agatha, I don’t know what happened between Big Al and her, and how do you know, are you her husband? See the difference between me and you is I don’t have to wait for the Government to tell me that we are in a recession/ depression like you do and like so many others. This is why you are mad! Bad data is what it is……bad data! China markets were down another 5% over night and again things are not looking good and you’re mad, so go! Get lost, who cares you bird brain!

            Jan 11, 2016 11:46 AM

            Now we realize why Gary departed… creep is correct..his prominent guests should take over the show..its time..
            nothing happened between Al & Agatha… he’s just annoyed by my comments….though he asserts he is ‘a good guy’….monikers must be respected… Al Korelin doesn’t.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:29 AM

            I agree on the MONIKER PROTECTION…………….. 🙂

            Jan 11, 2016 11:28 AM


            Even when I disagree with you, I respect you. Thank you for taking a brave and correct stand.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:20 AM

            I agree.

            Obviously Birds confidentiality is important to him and he is right.
            Clues as to who you are Bird are rare, but the odd one does
            Anyway, Altho Bird is 100% correct, a lawsuit might be overboard, (maybe not for Bird depending on who he is).

            Al made a mistake in the professionalism category, maybe even the friendship column, imo an apology maybe would be in order, to Agatha and probly everyone on the site.
            But my guess is it was a brain freeze, it happens.

            Personally, Ive made too many mistakes to be the first to throw rocks (for lack of better terms)
            Dont see it as something to hold a grudge about tho.

            If anyone is really concerned for anonymity, maybe create an email address using another name and use that address for sites like this.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:56 AM

            On January 10, 2016 at 5:35 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:rply REPRINT was on phone and moving…
            I’m outa here CCF! There is sanity there. North America as a whole is a zoo filled with so much propaganda you cant keep up!! Now I’m paying for Syrian refugees. There will be no pensions. Glad I didn’t plan on it. Lol
            I think developed nations are a good place to be from….Their so white washed its unbelievable.

            Mathew there certainly is inflation on some things. But as I said we are likely in a deflationary depression. The pump price is deflationary on many things. Heating oil gas.
            I’m still waiting for plane tickets to come down. Lol

    Jan 10, 2016 10:00 AM

    Off Topic:

    ********** ” GO SEAHAWKS! ” ***********

      Jan 10, 2016 10:04 AM

      On my way to meet friends. Thanks

    Jan 10, 2016 10:22 AM

    Big Al and Doc. I would like to hear your opinion on Teranga Gold. Teranga will probably produce around 240-250K in 2016 in the 900 AISC range. They have lots of cash. very little debt. Company just finished the high grade gora development which is expected to bring an additional 75K oz a year. Right after they finished that development they started to upgrade their mill which is expected to to increase throughput and decrease costs. To be finished mid 2016. So their operations seem to be running very efficient. Company also benefits from low euro and oil.

    Company hasn’t been doing much exploration the last couple years as they have been just focusing on improving efficiencies at the mine. Teranga has a massive land package and they are in elephant country. This year they are expected to get the drills turning again. Which I am excited about because of the gold region they are in. So they could add some ozs.

    Recently The Mimran Family which is extremely wealthy took a 10% stake in the company and a seat on the board. Shortly after that they went out and acquired another 1.5% to bring their holding up to 11.5%. I find this as a significant development as the Mimran group is the second largest employer in Senegal next to the government.

    Any thoughts on Teranga?

      Jan 10, 2016 10:03 AM

      Tomorrow Ronny

        Jan 10, 2016 10:58 AM

        It would be great to get Michael Belkin back on as he had covered Teranga gold extensively last year. His interview on KWN that Ebolan posted below is great and worth the listen.

    Jan 10, 2016 10:49 AM

    Gary is back guaranteeing this will not be a bear market. Just like Armstrong, Avi and all the other newsletter writers who keep touting this “slingshot” move in US equities. Yeah right.

      Jan 10, 2016 10:27 AM

      +1 Not gonna happen.

        Jan 10, 2016 10:42 AM

        Avi always has two sides to the story.
        Gary has gone against his own theory.
        Armstrong is put there to confuse. ( shill.. )

    Jan 10, 2016 10:23 AM

    Belkin: next 12 to 18 months the major averages to lose 30 to 50%

      Jan 10, 2016 10:55 AM

      That was a very good interview with Michael Belkin. I really like his analysis, and got some good stock ideas from him on the Australian gold miners last year.

      He mentioned St Barbara in this interview who is a gold producer in Australia and Papua New Guinea. They’ve been stepping it up and this was the one that over over 1200% gain last year.

      Here is the most recent corporate presentation from St Barbara:

        Jan 10, 2016 10:41 PM

        I thought the Belkin interview was very interesting, too. His reasoning is very compelling. And that interview was great publicity for Belkin’s newsletters. It sounds like like he has been on a hot streak since 2009.

        And that get’s me to my age old question. If anyone can time the major markets with regularity (or any market for that matter) and even pick individual stocks profitably with regularity why bother selling investment advice? Why hassle with subscribers, clients, billing, travel, etc.? Why not just focus on whatever system you have to make money?

        It sounds like Belkin could have gotten filthy rich just following his own advice, at least since 2009 as he says he was bullish on conventional market sectors back when they turned in 2009 and of course he became bearish on these sectors last year. And his returns in non-conventional areas have been very high based on what he has said.

        I am curious for the people selling investment advice where does most of their income come from? Is it from their subscribers/clients or from following their own advice?

          Jan 10, 2016 10:36 PM

          Yup, makes ya think Ebolan.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:08 PM

          I have often wondered the same thing, but believe many times people are able to identify trends across a vast spectrum of sectors or stocks, but can’t personally invest in every trend they spot. As a result they sell this wisdom and analysis to others for a buck.

          I will concede that there are some that genuinely like to coach or help others, regardless of their personal success. For example, I have a friend that is a multi-millionaire through real estate investing, and he doesn’t need to work, but he has sold 17 books and still works a hectic schedule doing workshops and private coaching. He feels it keeps him sharp, keeps him plugged in with the pulse of the market, and he honestly likes helping others….but he charges for it 🙂

          Your overall point is a good one though Ebolan, and maybe the problem is that some don’t follow their own advice…..

            Jan 10, 2016 10:25 PM

            If I had indicators, methods, etc. or, for lack of better terms (sorry, Big Al), a system that could consistently time markets I would not go to the trouble to sell it.

            But if I did, I would establish a verifiable track record that everyone could see. I would work with an independent, outside entity to track every trade I made so I could establish a track record that would prove my system works. I don’t know anyone who sells investment advice doing this. Maybe someone is, but I don’t know of anyone.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:41 PM

            I’m with you man….I’d just follow my system and take it to the bank. Then I’d go buy a Greek island while they’re on sale, and work from a laptop on the beach.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:55 PM


          I’ve been on a lot of tours with writers selling subscriptions and I’ve asked them the same question many times. I always get a “deer in the headlights” look. If someone really could call the markets with great accuracy, why do they need income from subscribers? It’s the fatal flaw to subscription services including Martin Armstrong. After all, if you can make a 1200% return on a stock, you don’t have to invest much to retire.

          And I also think that there will be a lot of stocks returning 1200% when we make the turn.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:55 AM

            Absolutely correct Bob. you are turning out to be one of the smartest guys who comes to this loser blog. Keep posting. I will be ahppy to read. I am pretty sure this is my last day here after that shit*ty stunt Korelin just pulled.

            Dear Agatha…..Get a Lawyer.

            And sue his sorry ass.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:54 AM

            Bird, obviously right about Mr Bob. He is one smart and knowledgeable cookie.
            I think you noticed awhile back, the two of you pretty much agree other than one topic.
            Ive noticed I have never agreed with someone 100%, there is always something to think differently about.

            I personally agree that there should be alot of stocks returning 1200% when the turn comes.

      Jan 11, 2016 11:52 AM

      What happened to Belkins proprietary method of turning points in metals and miners? Looks like he is going to be dead wrong. Just another big shot market caller with the same insights as everyone else.

      Except he costs thousands. The others are free. Hmm….which shall I choose of the people who know nothing?

        Jan 11, 2016 11:02 AM

        Bird, your figuring is better than 98% of what I read/hear, but ya dont have to be as good a that to make money.
        Personally I dont buy subscriptions.
        With one exception once, when I first began investing in markets, Casey Research informed me of a stock I made some coin on, from that I bought a subscription.
        I discovered that they focused mainly on the american market, so I didnt renew.

        Just about all info a person needs is free, the challenge is the time required, so I actually can see the benifit for some people.
        But most, I can see a well informed person “blow them away” % wise.

    Jan 10, 2016 10:32 AM

    Update From Mom And Pops Basement——-42% Of Millennials Have Resorted To Pawnshops And Payday Lenders

      Jan 10, 2016 10:46 AM

      the chart is interesting concerning all groups………the overdraft section of living and credit card debt is running neck and neck in one age group.

    Jan 10, 2016 10:38 PM

    Again some very good points that I agree with Birdman.
    Demographics deflation ect ect. The commodities bubble POPPED and will take YEARS to shake out and consolidate. Every gold bug on earth never predicted even close to what has happen to the gold OR stock market (huge rise) so that pretty much points to the FACT that they are clueless!
    What everyone is missing now is the crash out ahead for the YUAN…..China was/is buying gold but when this does occur they will be seller in a big way… Do the math on that! And it was going to be the EO the USD?? Gold clowns…..LOL
    Copied from my prior:
    And as I posted a while back gold WILL see $500 or lower in the years to come….EOS.
    But in the meantime…Because higher interest rates are typically thought to be bearish for gold pricing, yet gold mounted a strong rally on the day that boosted the chance of a rate hike on December 16, some traders may be thinking that gold has entered a turning point and will thus continue its rally. Although we believe gold could have some additional upside, we believe this possible upside is quite limited. We believe the current rally is due primarily to short covering.

      Jan 10, 2016 10:43 PM

      $500 gold Bill? Not a chance.

        Jan 10, 2016 10:34 PM

        If he is not shorting gold, his $500 prediction worth nothing since he does not even believe his own prediction. I think gold will $3000 so I am long before that. My money is where my mouth is.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:37 PM

          Ya I’m long the dollar1.5 years ago. Out of the loonie.
          The short game is BS. Would you like to see my trade on silver @ 49$? Drop an email.
          Why? Because commodities and especially OIL is directly correlated with the loonie (Peso piece of crap)Heading to possible .60c.
          I bough US REITs paying 8-9% and they have been a currency play, pay me to wait, and barely budge in a sell off. I could care less about gambling major money on metals that are extremely risky and virtually no one can call…
          One caveat is miners (some) have gotten cost down so a few have done well lately…
          $3000.00 lol
          Wait till the SHTF in the YUAN…

        Jan 10, 2016 10:16 PM

        You would think…..It was our view at the top that a 15-20 yr bear market would commence…..Ive been laughed at all the way down. It will take years with bear market rally’s along the way. If I listen to many here we would be at $5000.00 gold today.
        You can look at all the charts you want but it tells nothing..
        So far so good. Not that I care either way as I just don’t care to be on the wrong side…
        Joe public thinks its coming back into style and that tells me a lot.
        Good luck…

          Jan 10, 2016 10:40 PM

          Are you kidding? Joe Public hates gold and loves Netflix and friends.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:23 PM

            Joe public gambler maybe. But Joe Public made a shit load on NUT FLEX.
            I wouldn’t touch those stocks today with a barge pole…Its time to be VERY defensive.
            THE BEST deflation hedge is Cash or treasuries…better then gold…Gold has stupid scam fees…
            My neighbors, father ext OWN gold / silver and think it coming back. Its not…I sold at the top and they wouldn’t. I was hopeful for sometime of a good run in gold but it never transpired..

            Jan 10, 2016 10:29 PM

            You sold at A top (as did I) but not THE top. There is no technical or fundamental reason to think the secular bull ended in 2011.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:52 PM

          And be careful Mathew…
          Oils continual decline tells us global deflation is gripping us…
          Gold is somewhat of a deflation hedge BUT not always….and don’t think so this time…
          If it hadn’t been in a bubble then it would have performed better….
          China IS buying as they suspect a currency crisis is ahead for them…..When that happens they will be large sellers of Gold….You will see… a year or 2???

            Jan 10, 2016 10:08 PM

            I would like to remind (not pointed at Mathew at all) about all the Bullshit that is dispelled that people bought into….probably losing their shirts along the way…..
            Do you all remember that China owned ZILLLIONs of US treasuries and they were going to crush the dollar by dumping them on the market….??? Do ya? Gold Bug fools….
            Oh oh and we are now in a HUGE bond bubble as well??!!! LOL That IS all BS….
            My God people wake up!
            Come to think of it Moriarty said the Dollar is used toilet paper and the bond market was going to blow sky high 3-4 years ago. Hows that working out for you? LOL

            Jan 10, 2016 10:20 PM

            Bill, gold does superbly in a debt deflation/systemic deleveraging. Notice that gold is up 475% versus the CRB since its 2001 low while the dollar is up just 35% versus the CRB in the same period. Remember that is just another debt that deflates when the economy contracts. In real terms, the economy has been contracting since the ’99/’00 peak.

            Gold did not fall less than commodities in the last year as the dollar/paper obsessed masses think. The correct way to describe the action is to say that gold went up very sharply but the dollar went up even more.

            Still, the dollar is the big loser as it remains nowhere near a four decade peak versus oil.

            Those who’ve made gold their money have enjoyed a lot more price deflation over the last decade than dollar lovers have. More of the same is straight ahead now that the dollar has had its counter trend day in the sun.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:22 PM

            Remember, gold beat the USD by almost 6% even in 2008.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:27 PM

            Correction first paragraph:
            Should be “Remember that THE DOLLAR is just another debt…”

            Jan 10, 2016 10:55 PM

            The Dollar is not in a counter trend rally. The massive debts incurred by so many country’s is owe this to the states. They need to buy back dollars to repatriate these debts. This will take years.
            Gold has done better than most crashing commodities and is no surprise…It has somewhat of a safe haven status. That’s all.
            The dollar is another debt but is based a lot on a countries production and confidence which is better than anywhere these days.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:05 PM

            If gold does superbly in this environment what happened? We have been deflating in many things for some time!?

            Jan 10, 2016 10:37 PM

            One more time Bill… “Notice that gold is up 475% versus the CRB since its 2001 low while the dollar is up just 35% versus the CRB in the same period.”

            There are cycles within cycles within cycles. The dollar is near the end of a counter trend rally. I am talking in terms of VALUE not its price in euros or other debt paper. The single best way to measure the dollar’s value is to price it in gold.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:47 PM

            Re: “If gold does superbly in this environment what happened? We have been deflating in many things for some time!?”

            What do you mean what happened? For about 3 of the last 4 years there has been no deflation —just look at housing, art, and rare cars. As for the last year+, gold went up very substantially. It has nearly tripled versus oil since 2014 and doubled versus commodities in general (GNX). The dollar went up more. So what? So did AMZN, NFLX and Claude Resources for that matter (close to 700%). Gold is the numeraire, not the dollar.


            Jan 10, 2016 10:04 PM


            You got a frog in your pocket or something? You are always talking “we” and “our” as if you do. If you have made so much money how come you keep sending me threatening emails and whining about how much money you lost?

            For the 100th time, you are responsible for your own investment decisions not anyone else. If you really did sell silver at $49, you did it after reading me. You should be thanking me for warning you.

            And if you think the market rate of interest on US Government notes reflects a fair return on investment given the risk, you need new batteries for your calculator. The fact that bonds haven’t blown sky high certainly does not mean they won’t. We all know they will. You are investing using a rear view mirror and how many times have I told you that can’t work?

            I’m now sure why you feel you need to come on the board acting like you are the smartest guy on the block. In what you send to me personally, it sounds as if you have been very foolish.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:23 AM

            What Bob!!??? Are you talking about?
            I actually work with a couple guys and we smash heads together.
            We be on track. Funny though as I know a hockey sock full that lost money reading your site. Many gold promoters wiped out their readers. I think Peter Schiff lost 50% along with Sprott. Theres alot of pissed off people out there and I know a number of them. Thats the tip of the iceburg I suspect.

            Jan 11, 2016 11:25 AM

            Ps Bob. Thats showing your age. My calculator is solar but I just use my phone these daz.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:16 PM

          There are some of us that “know” gold is going down. When it does hit bottom, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. And it will hit 5,000! And it won’t take long to do it.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:34 PM

            Chartster I wish you were right! I’d be in on that trade but I’m afraid not.
            I’m VERY confident in my views as I was in 2014 (Laughed at) and have been exactly right.
            If it was to change Id be happy to admit it. NOPE. Investing is going to be a bitch. Its most likely an inflationary depression….
            You may not like what you hear but its what you need to hear.
            Don’t listen to what you want to hear but seek the truth no matter what you believe and you will be successful…
            I don;t give a shit if I’m wrong or if its what I desire and place no ego in it… so I can create a view from a complete unbiased opinion based on real fundamental facts.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:59 PM

            Does anyone know why the S&P took a hit?

            Jan 10, 2016 10:25 PM

            It ran out of buyers capable of overwhelming the sellers. It was time.

            Jan 10, 2016 10:36 PM

            Oil profits have caused a big part of the hit. Reducing the P/E (predictable)
            Stock markets hate deflation ( along with Govs)
            But deflation and oils precipitous fall is good for the consumer…
            My family in the US are all doing well….

    Jan 10, 2016 10:05 PM

    Economic Collapse Happening Now-Rob Kirby
    on: 01/10/2016 by Greg Hunter 1 Comment
    3bBy Greg Hunter’s (Early Sunday Release)

    Macroeconomic analyst Rob Kirby’s predictions of a downward spiraling economy are coming true. Kirby contends, “I think the last time we spoke, it was in early December. I suggested that a window was opening where we were very likely to see some systemic breakdowns in our financial universe to likely start occurring. Low and behold, it looks like we are seeing the beginnings of exactly what we were speaking of. The reason why we are beginning to see these things start to unfold now is that everything we’ve been told by our financial elites . . . has basically been a lie or a false flag or fraudulent.”


      Jan 10, 2016 10:05 PM

      Jim Willie and TF….mentioned the same concerning the treasury ,… this was about a week ago…

        Jan 10, 2016 10:36 PM

        Jim Willie is clueless Bud.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:06 PM

          don’t know why tf has him on…

          Jan 10, 2016 10:35 PM

          Thanks for the head up…..Bill, how is the South American real estate venture.?

            Jan 10, 2016 10:38 PM

            Btw, did you sell the cable pulling business before leaving BC….Thank ….BUD.

          Jan 10, 2016 10:42 PM

          That is BUD LITE…………….lol

            Jan 11, 2016 11:53 PM

            I’m going to run my company another year. They gave me a $350,000.00 contract so I can’t walk away from that kind of loot!
            It doesn’t matter what the economy is doing…The Cell business must keep pace as technology moves ahead..
            The retired guys are coming back to work so I might employ a couple as well. The hard working ones at least. We could go after anothe $500,000 in microwave radio work..Ericsson is the Radios we use in the network.
            Corporations do not want employees….Its all going contract…

            Jan 11, 2016 11:53 PM

            LOL nice

    Jan 10, 2016 10:00 PM

    Beat Carolina!

    ********** ” GO SEAHAWKS! ” **********

      Jan 10, 2016 10:09 PM

      How was it Big AL for you and your friends? That was tough in the beginning!

      Jan 10, 2016 10:12 PM

      Still waiting on you Big Al…..but, the globex markets are open and here we go!

        Jan 10, 2016 10:15 PM

        Okay gold and silver are up but lets look at the Asian markets……………..

    Jan 10, 2016 10:24 PM

    ANYWAY, BIRDMAN…..lets see how you try to spin the collapse in the markets next week!

    It all happens now Birdman………….just stay tuned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:28 PM

    And that goes for the rest of you fools!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:32 PM

    ************ MARKETS ARE NOW OPEN GLOBEX AND WORLD WIDE! ************
    This is now the beginning of the 2nd week of 2016! Here we go!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:56 PM

    Dang, if you want an early Halloween just listen to some of Greg Hunter’s very recent interviews. Scary stuff from Kirby, Morgan and Brown. Trick or Treat.

    Jan 10, 2016 10:56 PM

    Dang, if you want an early Halloween just listen to some of Greg Hunter’s very recent interviews. Scary stuff from Kirby, Morgan and Brown. Trick or Treat.

    Jan 10, 2016 10:52 PM

    Silver:Gold monthly:

    Jan 10, 2016 10:38 PM

    The markets are rigged!
    Even the market comments are rigged!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:28 PM

    I think we might see the dow lose another 1000 points before we see a bounce. Sure will be an interesting week

    Jan 10, 2016 10:35 PM

    ********* CHINA MARKETS in trouble again!
    Note: Circuit breakers are gone………..this is going to be very interesting!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:39 PM

    ************ NOTICE: THSES POST ARE OUT OF SYNC *************
    Something is wrong with the postings Big Al, they are not in the right order by time!

    Jan 10, 2016 10:31 PM

    I really enjoy & appreciate it when the numerous poster’s on here start to go into the financials & break down individual mining stocks.
    Many of you who do, have brought to my attention several companies I would more than likely have overlooked in my own research.
    Just wanted to say a quick thank you to those who have contributed in that regard.

      Jan 10, 2016 10:33 PM

      Sorry, my previous thank you post appears to be out of sync of where it was attempted to be placed in the commentary.

    Jan 11, 2016 11:23 AM

    My post went to the wrong spot. This is what Im agreeing with.

    On January 11, 2016 at 7:28 am,
    Robert J Moriarty says:
    Even when I disagree with you, I respect you. Thank you for taking a brave and correct stand.

    Jan 11, 2016 11:32 AM

    On January 10, 2016 at 5:35 pm,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:rply
    I outa here CCF! There is sanity there. North America as a whole is a zoo filled with so much propaganda you cant keep up!! Now Im payng for Syrian refugies. There will be no pensions. Glad I didnt plan on it. Lol

    Mathew there certainly is inflation on some things. But as I said we are likely in a deflationary depression. The pump price is deflationary on many things. Heating oil gas.
    Im still waiting for plane tickets to come down. Lol

    Jan 11, 2016 11:49 AM

    Excuse me but that wasn’t a mistake — it was very intentional and conscious and I thank bird & Bob Moriarty. I thank Birdman & hope that he will remain….can Al be a big man …… and apologize??????? We shall see….

      Jan 11, 2016 11:25 PM

      Agatha, please listen to our discussion with Gary on December 2nd. Specifically from about 4 minutes and on.

      When I make a mistake I am a big man and I do apologize.

      Best to you.

    Jan 11, 2016 11:10 AM

    BILL……..THANKS FOR THE REPLY…………….I AGREE 100% “it is a zoo filled with so much propaganda you cant keep up!”

      Jan 11, 2016 11:11 AM

      comment is out of order………sorry, Bill

        Jan 11, 2016 11:50 AM

        CCF The Govs got us so safe here you cant even buy a fire cracker here lol rules rules rules
        There’s a million reasons why I can’t stand Canada anymore.
        We are in for another UGLY year here….in Canuckleheadstand. T2 just took the helm of the Titanic…
        China hard landing coming. MSM trying to keep it under wraps. Electricity usage and commodity prices telling the story.
        China trying for soft landing. Spent $300 Billion so far buying stocks. But economy will slow down IMO by another 3-5% soon thereby triggering a massive debt crisis.
        It’s a self fulfilling prophecy now.
        So I reiterate…What will drive commodities in any big way?? Sideways for years at best I believe.
        Be careful on those bets! It cash preservation time…for some time…

        Jan 11, 2016 11:00 PM

        Last one I promise. As I said before the Hangseng blew up next will be the YUAN…
        Most don’t seem to know when to stop over bidding real estate….foolish in my view.

          Jan 11, 2016 11:25 PM

          thanks Bill

            Jan 11, 2016 11:14 PM

            You just made a mistake. You will have to mop it up..

            Jan 11, 2016 11:27 PM

            what was the mistake, Bill?

            Jan 11, 2016 11:01 PM

            AL Oh maybe not. Thought you upset the apple cart with Agatha…

            Hopefully Bird hangs around. He has Great views in which we think a lot alike…
            I can certainly think for myself….
            I usually only have scanning time for the blog. Wish I had more time but back to business….

            Best to most all here!

            Jan 11, 2016 11:32 PM

            I actually listened specifically to what was said, Bill.

            I try my hardest to always tell the truth and if I make a mistake, I will always admit it.

            Best to you.

    Jan 11, 2016 11:04 PM

    You ain’t wrong there…My email does not even come close to reflecting my name…There’s no chance of a breach. I would recommend that to all….I would sure as hell never post any numbers about myself as I have…My best friend doesn’t know what I do financially!
    I don’t spend a lot of time here but I appreciate you comments most of all Bird.
    You should have a sight WITH your insights as they are more accurate then most in the financial business.

    Jan 11, 2016 11:57 PM

    ANYONE investing ANYTHING in any market has rocks for brains these days.
    I JUST looked at 40 charts and WOW. THE SHTF…..Oil tanked 5% alone…CRB smashing to new lows…
    Im still 90% cash deese daz