US markets, Oil, US Dollar and Gold

February 27, 2016

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    Feb 27, 2016 27:39 AM

    Thanks for the show guys.
    Much appreciated as usual.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:21 AM

      Yes – Big Al & Cory – Thanks! A jolly good show…..

      The sections with Brent Cook and his partner Joe Mazumdar were good. Cory thanks for asking Joe about the importance of AISC and how it gets fiddled with, and that digging deeper on the balance sheet and free cash-flow is a better thing to look for.

      Turd Ferg, Dan, Avi, RPS, Doc Charley, LPG are always great to listen to. Cheers!

    Feb 27, 2016 27:19 AM

    A few observations that could affect gold during week of 2/29:
    1. Gold as a numeraire (a measure of value amongst currency units, as opposed to be a currency) is routing metals such as platinum and silver. It takes 1.34oz of platinum to buy an ounce of gold, as opposed to a few years ago when it took 0.7 ounces. it takes 83.25oz of silver to buy gold, much to the chagrin of certain silver fundamentalists who play fast and loose with reasons for a lower ratio. And given the huge commercial net short position in silver going in to this weekend (the highest in 8 years and close to half a billion paper ounces), the use of silver to act as a boat anchor around the neck of gold suggests pressure on gold via the silver raid route (as it is increasingly dangerous to short gold directly).
    2. India’s budget comes out this weekend. A drop in gold export duties could buoy gold, increasing the gold/silver ratio even more, as Indian jewelers have a more opportune reason to replenish inventories.
    3. Given the renewed strength in risk-on assets (i.e. stocks and oil), especially from the Wednesday morning lows, which often go counter to the movements of risk-off assets such as treasuries and gold, gold has done remarkably well this week. It has dropped, in spite of volatile swings from high to low, only 4 dollars from last week’s close.

    All this suggests that gold is being accumulated as an insurance asset. Other precious metals do not have this role. If Armstrong is correct in his cycle forecast that the Euro Zone will accelerate on the downside after mid-March, this core reason for holding gold could support it, even in the face of technical selling. In this respect, Deutsch Bank, the name most mentioned for the next Lehman event, has ironically recommended getting back into gold. I will agree with Doc that this week could really be volatile for gold.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:19 AM

      Very good points Don.

      Yes, the Gold Silver ratio has been really stretched at 82-83. Platinum has been at a stark discount to Gold, but has actually rallied quite a bit lately. Platinum & Silver both put in an short-term tops in mid- February. It seems likely that this downward drag from them, paired with a rally in the general stock markets & the USD may pressure Gold next week. Some are also holding out for a reversal week next week, so it may get volatile indeed.

      Personally I’m mostly in a cash position at present. I took the winnings off the table with only 25% left of my Gold/Silver mining positions, 50% of my ideal Uranium positions, 50% of allocated Lithium positions, and like 10-20% of what I want on PGM stocks & Fertilizers & Base Metals. For Oil I am considering a swing trade on the long side in the stocks for the early part of the week, and then I may short Oil if it gets up to the $36-37 zone. It’s gonna be a wild week.

      Good luck to everyone in their trading.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:03 AM

      Great comment Don, Thanks for taking the time and sharing!

    Feb 27, 2016 27:19 AM

    Don’t count on $5000 an ounce in gold. But don’t rule out a devaluation or a currency crisis, brought about by a Yuan de-peg, for example.

    The value is in the gold miners. Why? Because they have the gold. ETFs will never be able to recover the gold sold during the crash in gold prices and mostly hold paper promises.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:24 AM

      Great point about ETFs gold holdings versus what they may need down the road.

      Yes, I like miners because they have ounces in the ground, locked in a rock safe.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:24 AM

        Proven & Probable: Interview with RICK RULE
        Proven and Probable | about 18 hours ago

        Maurice Jackson interviews the Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings, Rick Rule.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

      Gold of $3000 to 5000 would be too high to expect as there would be zero demand form China and India the major buyers where income levels are much lower than in the west. The average person there earns less than $5000 per year. It would take many years of savings to buy one ounce. It would be the greatest short. Gold bugs alone are not going to drive the price up.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:13 AM

        As I have said U believ those levels will be seen in the future. Tho probably not tomorrow. If you remember my time frame is upwards of six years.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:25 AM

        Not sure about Indian but wrong about China. Chinese buy most of European luxury goods and chasing high price as people tends to stupidly show off the richness. At same time china is no longer poor and people have huge pool of saving. People save around 30-40% of what they make and who knows what is the trendy things to do.

          Feb 27, 2016 27:24 AM

          the latest stats say there is around $20 trillion cash deposited in Chinese banks.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:18 AM

            What currency, Dragonite? Never mind. I WILL DO THE RESEARCH

            Feb 27, 2016 27:25 PM

            In Chinese yuan off course. Someone calculated in US dollar terms. 

        Feb 27, 2016 27:23 AM

        Gold bugs are useless in driving the price up since they are already in. However, central banks around the world will be the deciding driving force to drive gold to infinity. No country can resist the urge to print money as long as it is under a fiat currency.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

    LPG, very nice review and discussion of your money management decisions last week.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:02 AM

    Richard, Thank you as usual for sharing your conclusions from your indicators.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

    Allied Nevada aka Hycroft Mining message board post, with an update and what has been going on behind the scenes. Number 7 is quite a doozy. Shareholders did filr an appeal that should be starting around May – June.

    jacks$ss • 21 hours ago

    Some little known Hycroft facts.

    Some little known Hycroft facts.

    Here are some little known Hycroft facts you may enjoy.

    1. The crusher circuit never successfully ran. It could operate but neither reliably or economically.

    A. There is a design flaw in the Raptor 1300 crushers. The center of gravity, unlike say an Norberg, is not within in the crusher but is a point that depending on RPM’s and load conditions will change and is located above the head of the crusher. If the crusher can not maintain a choked or loaded condition then the head will reach maximum RPM’s 250 (keep in mind the head weighs roughly 40,000 lbs counting the eccentric assembly) and when is suddenly loaded causes the head to shift and make sudden contact with the main shaft and collapse.

    This causes roughly $250,000 dollars in damage, not counting labor. The crushers had their heads rebuilt a total of six times between the two standards and the two tertiary’s. This was due to normal wear, it was estimated a crusher a week would have to be rebuilt. On the other hand, each crusher has crashed and failed numerous times.There were contractors on site daily for four months while the crushers tried to run. Their job was to tear down and rebuild them as they failed daily. Sometimes in as little as ten minutes. Keep in mind this is one of the worlds largest crushing circuits. Every crusher had numerous bushing changes, two main shaft replacements and two head assemblies were completely ruined and to eccentrics failed and were destroyed.

    FLS had and answer for all of this though, to keep Hycroft in production they offered to convert the non functioning 1300’s to proven 1100’s ( they share a common mainframe. This would have cost Hycroft roughly 600 tons and hour of possible production ( wait and I will explain why production numbers don’t add up). FlS would do this at their cost while the perfected the 1500’s (they scrapped the 1300 model line) Hycroft management said “NO”. In a four month run the circuit ran for 24 hours straight with no failures 1 time.

    2. The Primary crusher was permitted for 7800 Tons per hour. The conveyors were only rated for 3,500 ( rated by the weakest conveyor in the circuit) 4,400 TPH were run once and it stretched the secondary stacker belt 22′, put the counterweight in the dirt, destroyed a mid drive pulley and the head pulley bearings. Down time total-7 days.

    3. To run 7,800 TPH you would need 24 trucks dumping per hour. Hycroft had 32 trucks. The pit was a minimum ten minutes away at it closest point. You couldn’t run that tonnage because those 32 trucks had to run waste, take ore to the pad, load the crushers and load out at the secondary stacker. If you expect to put in X amount of tons in, well it comes out that same speed also, so if permitted crushing was to be achieved it would take 24 truck loads an hour load in and 24 truck loads an hour load out, impossible with 32 trucks.

    4. There is a design flaw in the location of the reclaim tunnels in relation to the stacker belts that reduces available flow to the point that even if everything was to run perfect you could only run the all four secondaries for a limited time before they would rat hole out and only one standard and one tertiary could be run.

    5. Go with me here, I will type slow and maybe you will grasp why the math behind the crusher plant was a lie. To keep the crushers running each standard needs 1500 TPH. Remember 3500 TPH is the max the conveyors can deliver. Of that 3500 TPH, 30-40% is screened off and never saw the standards. Meaning the Standards only saw 2100-2400 TPH for two crushers. That is if everything is ideal. The best Hycroft could ever expect to produce was not enough ore to keep the crushers in a loaded state which further led to the self distruction of the crushers. The CEO (The Buffinghole) was known to call the control room and demand that all four crushers be ran even if conditions would not permit them to run successfully.

    6. If the primary were to run full time it would have to rebuilt 4x’s a year at a $1,000,000 a pop. In parts alone the Secondary crushers would cost $250,000 a week. That is $15,000,000 a year not counting $35,000 oil changes, or any other regular Maintenance associated.The crushers were said to increase recovery by 12%. The running Hycroft average was 400 oz au and 2500 oz ag a day (mid 2014- mid 2015) . At the Hycroft magical number of $1,500 an ounce that means $60,000 a day in AU. 12% increase would be $14,000. If the crushers were perfect they could run 12 shifts a week. or $84,000 a week. But it cost $250,000 a week to mainatin and rebuild the secondaries?

    7. It was a lie people, it was said by some that Gold paid the bills but the amount of dirt made would get the investors. just like hauling waste to the pad to show more ore placement was a lie. The crushers were only there to show that great big piles of dirt could be made so investors would give up money for the mills. By the way, the mills were purchased and delivered in 2014. Everything but the shells are sitting on a hill in a lay down yard above the crushers rotting. The pinions, bearings, bull gears… everything. Here’s the kicker, it is all in its 90 day temporary shipping containers. They are all clearly labeled ” Do not store outdoors”. Here’s the kicker, if the Mills are ever built, there will be no warrenty because of this. So they will play hell even finding someone to erect them. I will come back later to tell more stories, like how the Nephew of the one time Mine GM made $750,000 one month and over $1,000,000 another with only having 4 employees on site. ( and they were only welders) or how Hycroft was renting 1/2-13 bolts attached to flanges on pumps for over $1 each per month. or how Hycroft spent $300,000 Renting pipe that wasn’t worth $100,000. or how a supervisor was demoted to sample taker for refusing to falsify documents to NDOW. I got a ton of em folks. Let me know.

    bjsedco702 • 19 hours ago

    This is very worrying. Time will tell how this affects operations going forward. Indeed, if what you say is true, then my guess would be that the mine will never open, certainly not under this management – who would finance a mine with this knowledge?

    altini1981 • 17 hours ago

    Can We constact and send those Updates you kindly gave to this board to our People on the Add Hoc Committee.We all should request Push and Fight for the Jailing as long as possible for Randy and his Cohorts on the ANV BOD.Life time should be one of the option for this blood sucker which all in all is trying to do all over again the rape done to the actual ANV SHareholders to the future Hycroft Shareholders when the Company and the thieves in posession go in public.I hope that our heroes in the Add Hoc Committee read your messages and conctact you so we can use your testimonials against those evil cockroaches and crocks when the Litigation will become posible in the future.Thanks Fellow for your courage.

    anvlawsuit123 • 7 minutes ago

    Great stuff. We are very suspicious massive fraud was/is going on. By all accounts the mine was grossly mismanaged- we knew about the crusher and mill parts (didn’t know they were sitting outdoors) just didn’t know the specifics. If they were half as incompetent with the embezzlement as they were running the mine into the ground there is for sure a paper trail. A billion dollars doesn’t just disappear.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:53 AM


      Sounds like directors and management team did not deliver and for that they should be exposed.

      Stockholders – Sign-up

      Allied Nevada Gold




      Hycroft Mine>





      Randy Buffington | Executive Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

      Randy has over 28 years of management, operations, engineering and construction experience, which he attained through his various management positions at globally focused mid-tier and senior mining companies. He joins us most recently from Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation, where he was Senior Vice President, Operations and was responsible for the safe operation of five mines located in Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and the United States. Prior to that, he served in a variety of general management roles with Barrick Gold Corporation, including Managing Director of Barrick’s Lumwana copper mine in Zambia; General Manager of Barrick’s Goldstrike mine complex; and General Manager of their Ruby Hill and Bald Mountain mines in Nevada. Prior to his time at Barrick Gold Corporation, Mr. Buffington gained significant experience in Nevada working at Placer Dome Inc.’s Bald Mountain mine and Cominco American Inc.’s Buckhorn Mine. Randy has a Masters degree in Civil Engineering.

      Stephen Jones | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

      Tracey Thom | Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

      Joseph Doherty | Treasurer

      Randy Buffington | Executive Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

      Randy has over 28 years of management, operations, engineering and construction experience, which he attained through his various management positions at globally focused mid-tier and senior mining companies. He joins us most recently from Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation, where he was Senior Vice President, Operations and was responsible for the safe operation of five mines located in Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and the United States. Prior to that, he served in a variety of general management roles with Barrick Gold Corporation, including Managing Director of Barrick’s Lumwana copper mine in Zambia; General Manager of Barrick’s Goldstrike mine complex; and General Manager of their Ruby Hill and Bald Mountain mines in Nevada. Prior to his time at Barrick Gold Corporation, Mr. Buffington gained significant experience in Nevada working at Placer Dome Inc.’s Bald Mountain mine and Cominco American Inc.’s Buckhorn Mine. Randy has a Masters degree in Civil Engineering.

      Michael Feehan

      David Kirsch

      Jacob Mercer

      Jonathan Segal

      Hycroft Mining Corporation
      Company Profile
      Corporate Responsibility

      Stockholders – Sign-up

      Allied Nevada Gold




      Hycroft Mine>





      Randy Buffington | Executive Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

      Randy has over 28 years of management, operations, engineering and construction experience, which he attained through his various management positions at globally focused mid-tier and senior mining companies. He joins us most recently from Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation, where he was Senior Vice President, Operations and was responsible for the safe operation of five mines located in Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and the United States. Prior to that, he served in a variety of general management roles with Barrick Gold Corporation, including Managing Director of Barrick’s Lumwana copper mine in Zambia; General Manager of Barrick’s Goldstrike mine complex; and General Manager of their Ruby Hill and Bald Mountain mines in Nevada. Prior to his time at Barrick Gold Corporation, Mr. Buffington gained significant experience in Nevada working at Placer Dome Inc.’s Bald Mountain mine and Cominco American Inc.’s Buckhorn Mine. Randy has a Masters degree in Civil Engineering.

      Stephen Jones | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

      Tracey Thom | Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

      Joseph Doherty | Treasurer

      Randy Buffington | Executive Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

      Randy has over 28 years of management, operations, engineering and construction experience, which he attained through his various management positions at globally focused mid-tier and senior mining companies. He joins us most recently from Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation, where he was Senior Vice President, Operations and was responsible for the safe operation of five mines located in Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and the United States. Prior to that, he served in a variety of general management roles with Barrick Gold Corporation, including Managing Director of Barrick’s Lumwana copper mine in Zambia; General Manager of Barrick’s Goldstrike mine complex; and General Manager of their Ruby Hill and Bald Mountain mines in Nevada. Prior to his time at Barrick Gold Corporation, Mr. Buffington gained significant experience in Nevada working at Placer Dome Inc.’s Bald Mountain mine and Cominco American Inc.’s Buckhorn Mine. Randy has a Masters degree in Civil Engineering.

      Michael Feehan

      David Kirsch

      Jacob Mercer

      Jonathan Segal

      Hycroft Mining Corporation
      Company Profile
      Corporate Responsibility


        Feb 27, 2016 27:50 AM

        Wow, talk about a term paper!

        Feb 27, 2016 27:21 PM

        glenfidish – your not kidding. There should have been a criminal investigation.

        There were over 30,000 Allied Nevada shareholders per Prime Clerk, when some ballots were counted. The chapter 11 was a cramdown. Shareholders rejected the plan, but it sailed through anyway. The lawyers made a ton.

        ANV had a 1.5 billion valuation in late 2014 that was reduced to 250 million a year later. There were Sarbanes Oxley violations..etc.

        Shareholders created their own website If you get a chance, watch the Christmas etoy’s show on the main page of the bankruptcymisconduct website. Big Al…that will pretty much sum up the term paper:-))

    Feb 27, 2016 27:24 AM

    Gold/silver ratio is out to over 83! Financial stress or some “bad stuff” happens whenever it gets this far out. Correct?

      Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

      Chris, this high GSR happened several times in the last few decades. Like 2008 and 2002. However these two occasions were distinctly different. 2008’s high ratio happened when gold and silver moved down fast. It was a panic and overshoot. So it reversed in matter of days. This is a character of financial stress and lack of liquidity. We know it was in deep financial deleveraging period. 2002 is quiet different since the high GSR happened when gold price was rising continuously. Silver was just lagging after a young bull market started and people were still in a bear mood and full of fear. Another explanation is shorts lost control for gold and had to beat up silver to create bearishness. Since eventually physical silver demand has to correct this high ratio, silver caught up and we had several years’ rising gold price from 2003 to 2008. This is a very rare occurrence and based on the charts I posted yesterday , we are in an identical situation like 2002. Even with a correction coming as usual, the bull market will continue.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:20 AM

        I agree , D

    Feb 27, 2016 27:29 AM

    Doc, You dont figure the change in Indian taxes will have an effect on gold?

    Feb 27, 2016 27:34 AM

    Thanks guys as always. John Kaiser well worth a listen SGT. C 17 mins in and he gives some valuable insights into Nevada Exploration.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:45 AM

    In line with avi as shad and others know I’m on record with 103-105 dollar for a long time. So this glen is on the sidelines thus far.

    By the wasy great show guys!
    Now an update on what I think.

    1.wti has not met the floor ratio will go to 90’s at the minimum imo. Where does that put gold? Matt is the expert on that.
    3.loonie will correct into summer imo. Double bottom? possibly
    Deflation is still in charge

    Again trade at your own risk

      Feb 27, 2016 27:55 AM

      Hey Glenfidish. Hope all is well sir.

      Yes, I was just posting up above that there is a split contingency with some expecting the US dollar to double top (Morris Hubbartt, Clive Maund, Gary Savage), and other like (Rick Ackerman, Avi Gilburt) & Don Corleone & yourself that feel the Dollar may continue to march higher. Last year around this time, I felt that we could see the US Dollar get as high as $110-$111 when if finally blows a gasket. However, I have not been impressed with the conviction of the US dollar over the last 6 months. If the Fed does follow through with rate hikes, then it may boost the Greenback to new recent highs.

      – You see the Silver Gold ratio in the 90’s….Wow!

      – As for the Loonie, I believe it will correct back down in the Spring Summer along with Oil of course. Both will likely come close or test their lows one more time.

      Right now I have a bigger cash position and left a few irons on the fire that have a good cost basis and can weather a potential storm, but capitalize on upside as well.

      Cheers mate!

        Feb 27, 2016 27:07 AM

        I should clarify that I think if the US dollar does break to new highs that your level of $1.03 to $1.05 is more reasonable (as Avi & Rick have both outlined recently).

        However, I have a lot of respect for Morris, Clive, and Gary, so I’m not ruling out the double top in the US Dollar either.

        Let’s put it this way…..if the US dollar closed above 101 then it could easily surge another 3-4% from there.

          Feb 27, 2016 27:08 AM

          …..and if the dollar surged up to 105 then I’d jump all over Oil, PMs, and even Base Metals at that point as a big buyer, because that would be pretty deflationary for the commodities.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:18 AM

            I’d also probably get serious about bottom fishing for Emerging Market ETFs, if the US dollar surged to 105, because they’d probably nose dive in that environment.

            I just want to get whatever scenario is going to unfold in the greenback (double-top here or rocket up/drop down later in the summer) over with – rip off the band-aid!

            Feb 27, 2016 27:52 AM

            Very good points shad!

          Feb 27, 2016 27:16 AM

          With recent extreme efforts by Saudi and Iran to talk the oil down and high storage number, the price stays at this level. I happen to think we have seen the bottom. The bearishness has peaked and demand has caught up with supply at this depressed price. We know Chinese and Indian demand is increasing even media wants to put a negative spin. US has lost significant oil production and drilling is less than 1/4 of the peak. Saudi production is not sustainable and it will cause long term damage to their fields. We may see the price dip again but low has been set.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:26 AM

            We could have seen the double bottom in Oil recently with the $26.07 level, but I do believe after the current Oil rally puts in an intermediate top, that it will head back down lower (and drag the Loonie back down with it).

            To be clear, that doesn’t mean Oil will reach or dip below $26.07; however, I’m not ruling the potential either with the current supply glut of epic proportions. If all the teamwork falls apart amongst oil production nations we still could take a final plunge to a new low. We’ll have to see how things go in the Spring/Summer for confirmation that the bottom is in, or that we did have one last capitulation.

            In the short-term I’m looking to bet on Oil on the long side up to $36-$37, and then potentially reverse the trade.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:37 AM

            I can assure you that the canadian oil will slowing cease to flow under this price. Calgary is in a depression and oil gas engineers stay home after losing their jobs and some have killed themselves. It is the worst since 1980s. Many companies are seeking to sell assets or acquirers. They will close door if this continues. I see no company make money. This cannot last.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:40 AM

            Please keep us informed on that particular environment, Dragonite.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:43 AM

            This is why I think there is more pain and capitulation to hit the oil patch and financial institutions that financed their growth and expansion to ridiculous extremes. Many companies will go bye-bye in 2016, or merge, or divest assets, or dilute shareholders.

            When that intensifies, it will be more clear who gets invited to the survivors ball.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:45 AM

            Possibly has been Dragonite. But there still a lot of extraneous inputs left to show themselves

          Feb 27, 2016 27:01 AM

          Here’s a good article from Clive from this last week with some good charts on the Gold intermediate top, breakout of the descending wedge for Gold, and his thoughts on the potential double top in the US Dollar. An interesting perspective to at least consider.

          Gold Market Update – Clive Maund
          originally published February 21st, 2016

        Feb 27, 2016 27:18 AM


        You are well positioned and great comments in regards to everything. Have not had a chance to say thank you for all you post in here on a daily. I have absolutely no idea how you do it providing that you mentioned you work in an office environment if I’m not mistaken :). But thx mate!

        The 90’s is based on a few things one of which I like a double top of 91-92 years and possible penetration or overshoot of that high price. Secondly I’m expecting the “shit to hit the fan” and gold catching more of a bid but silver to follow afterwards.

        Something does not sit well with me in regards to getting so close to sub 1000 and to be teased at 1044 “don’t quote me on that number”. If the so called cartel or elite or mother nature wanted to wipe the strongest hands, sub 1000 should have been breached or will be breached imho. I see weekly gaps in many miners which I personally do not like but matt says they can be filled years later. If we are going to have a healthy bull run for 5-7 years should we not fill those gaps?

        Many big time names that I have much respect for have said it needs to break 1000. No one has a crystal ball but at the very least I surely expected a 50% retracement of the high and we didn’t get it. Something to ponder.

          Feb 27, 2016 27:41 AM

          Great thoughts man and thanks for the insights. Yes, I’m in front of a computer much of the day for work, so I multi-task……or dodge the tasks……. 🙂

          On the miners, if they really take off, then it can take years to fill the gaps, and they don’t necessarily have to see them filled first. Having said that, I believe the next run up may be more solid if they did.

          As for the Gold price, I have an odd feeling about it as well, but try to only trade based on the charts, and not on feelings.

          When the December double bottom hit at $1045.40 and $1046.80, we noted on this blog at that time that the “W” bottom was going to at least be an intermediate bottom, and expected a rally in Gold. Personally the size and intensity of the rally surprised me and Gold exceeding some key resistance levels and moving averages, and broke out of the descending wedge. All of those things are very bullish, and the rally has had some real legs. This PM rally starting in Dec-Feb is going to prove to be the bottom & baby bull; or it will prove to have been a really fun tradable bull-trap, before the final plunge to the major low. Either way, things will not be boring…..

          Best of luck to you in your investing and it is always good to get your thoughts.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:38 AM

            How do you feel about what Doc is saying, Ex?

            Feb 27, 2016 27:55 AM

            I always enjoy listening to Doc or bouncing ideas off him on the blog.

            As for the general stock markets moving up and volatility moving down I concur, and I intend to take a position back in volatility once the markets climb for a while longer.

            As for Oil & Gold he sees a little more upside in both, and then both of them pulling back into Spring & Summer. That seems quite reasonable to me. At that point we’ll need to look at the severity of the price pullback, the slope of the trend line, and whether key support levels get tested or broken. This will confirm if the double-bottom in Gold in December, and the Jan 19th bottom in miners were the final bottoms, or whether the PM markets have more work to do.

            I agree completely with Doc Charley, that 2016 is the year to accumulate the quality names in Gold/Silver for longer positions, but that there may be a while left on the Base Metals. I also agree that even if the spot metal prices test their lows or make new lows in Gold/Silver, that this does not mean that will be the case with the miners.

            Let’s keep ole’ Doc Charley around…….he’s one of the good guys out there.

            So are you Big Al. Thanks for all you do.

          Feb 27, 2016 27:43 AM

          If GS predicts low of 1030, does price has to stay above that level to keep everyone waiting. I always suspect that Goldman wants to serve the public.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

            See my post below from summer, 2015. I’m assuming the following sentence was sarcasm?

            “I always suspect that Goldman wants to serve the public.”

            Feb 27, 2016 27:14 AM

            If it is in their benefit, Brian.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:32 PM
          Feb 27, 2016 27:42 AM

          “Should have been breached”, I agree Glen as that makes good sense.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:48 AM

        Because of my current “pig in the barnyard” philosophy I believe we will see a stronger dollar.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:52 AM

    A note on how personal debt is calculated in Canada. Craig Alexander of the prestigious C. D. Howe Institute says that when we talk about household debt being at 164 per cent of personal income, that is largely useless. You are taking the total debt of all people who have borrowed and dividing it by all income of Canadians. Those with debt and those without debt. If you assess the debt of people you know who actually have debt then the debt to personal income is off the charts. I’m sure this thinking is the same south of the border because Canadians are in lip sync with what is practiced in The US and I’m sure The Brit’s are in this same category as Mark Carney Canada’s former Bank Governor is now The Head Of The Bank Of England.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:05 AM

    Good morning everyone. Great show this weekend (WE)

    A question for the group:

    Does anyone think that buying by the ETF funds (GLD, SLV) and to a lesser extent the physical funds (PHYS, PSLV, OUNZ) could be the event that tips the scales for gold and silver to continue to rise, with smaller pullbacks (let’s say the 32 FIB)?

    Most people seem to be focused on the COT reports; but perhaps phycial buying (by the ETFs, funds, etc) could offset some of the expected (HUGE) drop in the gold and silver trading markets?

    ANy responses would be greatly appreciated.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:28 AM

      Gold price: Great sucking sound now coming from the West
      Frik Els | 02/26/2016

      Tepid demand in Asia as money pours into physical gold-backed ETFs

      “…..In fact, physical gold-backed funds have seen net inflows of more than 200 tonnes so far this year.

      At the current pace, Q1 2016 could top the torrid June quarter in 2010 when nearly 300 tonnes were added to ETF vaults.

      This year has been a reversal of the trend in during the last three years when a staggering 1,198 tonnes left funds.

      This outflow was primarily a West to East movement…..”

      Feb 27, 2016 27:52 AM

      And from a different perspective of physical accumulation, the buying of physical gold back in 2015 by banks:

      n an article by Avery Goodman of Seeking Alpha he states: “On August 6, 2015, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and HSBC (NYSE: HSBC) took delivery of a sum total of 7.1 tons of physical gold. No, I have not made any typographical errors. And no, I am not talking about electronic paper claims. I am talking about shiny yellow metal stuff that you can touch and feel. The gold bars were not purchased for bank clients. They were purchased for the banks themselves. How do I know this? They are designated by the exchange as being for delivery to the bank’s “house” accounts at COMEX, not to client accounts. Goldman Sachs, alone, took 3.2 tons worth of physical gold bars. Yet, even as the firm builds its stockpile, Goldman tells clients not to do it. In spite of the antics in the paper-gold market, we know the physical market is on fire. Demand will exceed known supplies by at least 1,350 tons in 2015. More in 2016. But, that won’t stop someone from setting up the paper market in order to buy from the physical market very cheaply. This is because the mysterious gold “supplier of last resort” will fill COMEX physical delivery demand, for the moment at least, no matter how high it rises, and no matter how low other supplies may be.”

        Feb 27, 2016 27:02 AM

        Very interesting article about banks taking delivery of physical. This will add to the pressure in the physical markets of ETF inflows back into the West, and Indian demand about to take off again.

        As for Goldman Sucks…I’ve been saying for years that they usually take the exact opposite action, than what they release in public statements. (just do the opposite…)

        For example, even in this article it is clearly evident:

        “Yet, even as the firm builds its stockpile, Goldman tells clients not to do it.”

        Ding, ding, ding!

          Feb 27, 2016 27:11 AM

          Yep, ding, ding and ding!

          Feb 27, 2016 27:19 AM

          Thanks, EX
          The reason for my posts this morning is that EVERYONE seems focused on TA charts and the COT report.

          Maybe, just maybe, physical buying will be the factor that changes the trend.

          DOn’t get me wrong, I think there will be a correction in both gold and PM miners, but I think that 1180-1200 knife-fight area is the ultimate support (maybe it would briefly dive below this for a couple hours)

          At any rate, the upcoming drop is a buying opportunity, in my opinion, to accumulate wealth using the LPG method of buy on dips and cost average down on peaks.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:21 AM

            Great point about physical

            Feb 27, 2016 27:30 AM

            Fwiw, the COT report is as of Tuesday and silver has dropped 4% since then. So there could already be substantial improvement.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:41 AM

            Thanks Brian. You raise a good topic of where the tipping point will be if there is a spike in physical demand from banks, ETFs, and Indian demand.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:51 AM

            Another “Ah Ha !” moment for me: The COT is a lagging indicator. Thanks, man.

            If Impact Silver drops next week, I am a buyer for trading shares or $-COST averaging. Fully loaded (and mildly anxious) with my Alexco and Americas positions. But … I’m trying to think in a 2017-frame-of-mind to reduce some of my anxiety 😉

            Feb 27, 2016 27:25 AM

            Brian, we just went through years in which declines were deep and protracted and rallies were sharp but brief. From here, get ready for the opposite to become the norm. Declines are likely to be sharp but brief and rallies are likely to go higher and last longer than we expect.

            In short, rallies will be right translated, for a change, and corrections will be left translated.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:59 AM

            Thanks Matthew
            See my post regarding a Gold price chart overlaid with COT data.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:31 PM

            Matthew – I look forward to some right translated rallies for a while in miners. It will be refreshing, as I almost forgot what that was like 🙂

            Feb 27, 2016 27:49 PM

            To add to what Big Al said when he mentioned “Great point about physical”…
            … I think that when gold drops nicely and people need some, they gotta remember Olivia’s wise words:
            Best to all,

            Feb 27, 2016 27:05 PM

            This must’ve been written with central bankers in mind…


            Feb 27, 2016 27:38 PM

            Funny one Matthew !
            Best to you & Hope all’s well,

            Feb 28, 2016 28:11 AM

            I forgot to mention that Olivia was in the front row, too. 🙂

            Best to you

      Feb 27, 2016 27:35 AM

      If that happens Brian. Of course the action wold driv ed th ed price higher.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:13 AM

    I posted the following yesterday:

    The gold-silver ratio spent the whole week at a 7 year high after gapping up on Monday and came within 8.5 points of the 93.73 high of 2008. A very long term top is near…

    I’ll add today, that the Indian buying that Don mentioned above could be just what we need for the GSR to finally top. It could happen on Monday.

    As others have mentioned, Indians will be buyers next week whether the import duties are dropped or not since they will no longer have a reason to delay buying once the decision is made public.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:56 AM

      It is a good chance to switch gold to silver. I would not buy gold and silver at this point but I have no problem switching like in spring of 2011 to switch from silver to gold after selling it. I will see what I can do next week.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:23 AM

        I agree.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:18 AM

    Well what do you know…..? Avalon is switching its focus from Rare Earths over to the hot Lithium space. When a company that was once one of the more highly-valued REE companies puts it’s rare earth property on deep freeze, and completely re-brands itself to a hot sector, it is a very telling sign for both markets. It reminds me of when all the Gold miners suddenly became Pot Stocks.

    As someone that follows the Lithium space rather closely, this is concerning as it means Lithium is turning into a bubble market for the second time. I still have a lot of respect for companies like Western Lithium, Orocobre, Galaxy, Pure Energy Minerals, Lithium X, and a few of the explorers, but there are starting to be way too many explorers jumping on the Lithium band-wagon and most will never see the light of day.

    Avalon Rare Metals is now Avalon Advanced Materials
    Name change reflects a switch on the company’s focus.
    Cecilia Jamasmie | about 21 hours ago

    “…Consequently, the company said in a separate statement that Nechalacho will remain inactive in 2016, while Avalon re-focuses its efforts on its Ontario-based Separation Rapids Lithium Project and the East Kemptville Tin-Indium Project, in Nova Scotia.”

      Feb 27, 2016 27:45 AM

      [PODCAST] Sibanye prepares for future acquisitions Company starts plans for coal and energy division but maintains ‘conservative view on capital’ – Neal Froneman, CEO.
      Warren Dick | 26 February 2016

      “…..Yes, we’ve essentially divisionalised our business, in other words we have ensured that the gold business is a division, that it’s got appropriate leadership and a proper executive structure. We’ve created a Sibanye resources executive and we will divisionalise the platinum business as well and we’ve started the preparation for a coal and energy division, which we believe is necessary. So the primary focus of doing this is to first of all ensure continuity of management, to ensure focus and to ensure minimum disruption with the change in corporate structures, which is what we’ve achieved…”

        Feb 27, 2016 27:17 AM

        We will take a look at this one, Ex

          Feb 27, 2016 27:45 AM

          Sibayne is really becoming a juggernaut, but are they biting off more than they can chew?

          I felt like their acquisition of Anglo American’s Platinum mines last year was a real game changer in S. African Platinum space, and for them as a company.

          Now Neal wants to target Coal and Energy in a different division. He may be a genius buying all of these assets at the bottom of the market, but I hope they don’t get diluted and lose their focus. If anything they are becoming one of the bigger players in S. African commodities, and I like the stance Mr Froneman has taken in response to the government over-reaching, and unreasonable requests from unions. It will be interesting to see how their story develops in 2016.

            Feb 27, 2016 27:25 PM

            SBGL looks over-extended to me:

            Their current ratio is only 0.6

            Price to Sales: 3.73
            Price to Book: 3.63
            Price to Tangible Book: 2.98
            Price to Cash Flow: 16.50
            Price to Free Cash: -230.20

            big company, profitable on-going production; maybe even doing the right thing and buying properties, but it needs PM prices to increase.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:28 AM

      That is definitely a sign of irrational exuberance as someone once said

        Feb 27, 2016 27:47 AM

        Yep – People always over do it. 🙂

    Feb 27, 2016 27:33 AM

    referring to a black swan events isn’t it a likley scenario that a steep drop in precious metals price will coincide with a wall street crisis
    didnt gold sell off in 2008 initially
    what im asking could we see$ 200 gold and $ 2 silver before we see 5000 gold?

      Feb 27, 2016 27:58 AM

      Hmm I don’t think so. It did not happen in 1990s before the inflation and Chinese and Indian buying. It could not happen now. This is something I can say never.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:25 AM

      I personally don’t think so Chris. A possible initial drop but fundamental reasoning tells me no.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:16 AM

    Well, I guess nobody considers the tax change in India significant, another way to put it is S Tompson is “out to lunch” I guess. lol
    I woulda figured goldbugs would jump at it, maybe only traders left now.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:23 AM

      Not sure about “only traders”.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:28 AM

      It is significant to me. Just above, I posted: “As others have mentioned, Indians will be buyers next week whether the import duties are dropped or not since they will no longer have a reason to delay buying once the decision is made public.”

        Feb 27, 2016 27:43 AM

        Matthew is correct, bb

        There have been posts today regarding the significance of increased physical buying (past, present, and future)

    Feb 27, 2016 27:22 AM

    After looking good all month, the bears have stuffed silver back below an important Fibonacci arc support/resistance level. A strong move up on Monday would be nice.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:30 AM

      I think Friday is the last day off OE and day of roll over contract. I did not verify. There is a interest for shorts to defend their position and force longs to surrender.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:00 AM

    Bob Hoye recognizes that the gold miners are in a new cyclical bull market and says he has not recommended “lightening up” on positions despite the big move. I agree with him and have moved profits from my big gainers into other plays. Glenfidish knows of one of them that has more than doubled since I bought it with the gains taken on IPT, USA, and AXU. There are others and I am always looking for new “profit dumpsters.”

    Feb 27, 2016 27:11 AM
    At least Madame Lagarde seemed to be sporting a brand new tan; clearly she has not been in Chicago recently.
    As regards the G20 agreement, it was not worth the paper it was not written on.
    They agreed not to undercut each other’s currency by devaluation. Right!
    That agreement is about as good as the recent oil agreements to hold production constant.
    At least the German finance minister tried to warn against Keynesian money stimulation. It is a pity Abe, Yellen, Carney, and the ECB are stone deaf when it comes to that foolishness.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:33 AM

    Like I said yesterday, I think the dollar might have a point left to the upside.

    Tim Wood thinks the dollars has seen its high and I agree with him.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:54 AM
      Feb 27, 2016 27:08 AM

      Tim is some one I enjoy listening but will do exactly the opposite what he says. He is so bearish on everything and missed the big rallies in DOW and gold all together. Even when he is right, he does not change and stay way longer than he should. Just my two cents.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:36 AM

        I’m not a subscriber of his so I can’t say much about his actual advice but I do agree with him on the dollar and have thought the top was in place since last March.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:59 PM

      go with you. thank you for posting.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:57 AM

    OK. Here is a COT/Gold chart from Gold Tent.
    Am I wrong, or has the COT improved since the 2 weeks ago @ 12Feb?

      Feb 27, 2016 27:21 AM

      No, it’s worse and the combined open interest is the highest it’s been in years at 733,000+ contracts.
      The question now is, how aggressively will those shorts get covered and how will the miners hold up.

      Keep in mind what Jeff Kern said…

      “I do “know” two things. First, this is a UNIQUE index pattern. Therefore, when you read analysts’ predictions based upon any bull markets since 1974, THIS ONE WILL BE DIFFERENT.”

      And more importantly, be aware that the miners are a strong BUY on pullbacks.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:00 AM

    We’ve got one big top in the making.

    It was almost one year ago that…

    On March 17, 2015 at 8:08 am,
    Matthew says:

    I think that the dollar is about to take a break no matter what Yellen says.
    Staying long UUP puts…

    The dollar plunged over 5% the next day.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:11 AM


        Feb 27, 2016 27:12 AM

        Yes, the dollar dipped more than 5% on 3/18/15.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:16 AM

      Even US dollar has a lot of wind behind it since it is so called safe haven, it also have some terrible bearish factors. The longer term factors are the federal debt and huge trade deficit. Government has to dilute the debt by issuing new money in order to avoid default. The sort term factors are no one is in the position to buy treasury other than FED. Actually all the former major buyers are all in the position of selling to fund their own programs or strategic plan。 They include China, Russia and OPEC countries. Europe and Japan are in financial trouble and I doubt they will treat funding US deficit as priority. After they sell treasury, they rarely hold 100 dollar bills. Instead, they use the money to buy something else, in effect dumping it.

        Feb 27, 2016 27:34 AM

        I do not agree that the dollar is a safe haven asset. It is a “risk on” asset like stocks. That’s why it went up for the last few years while gold and the yen went down. Stocks, real estate and the dollar soared because people believed the propaganda that a real recovery was underway. The safest asset on earth, gold, does poorly when people feel confident about there odds in more speculative ventures or betting on the economy.

        When cash is truly king, the king of COLD, HARD cash is gold. The yen is a runner-up because the Japanese are savers and producers not debtors and consumers like Americans.

          Feb 27, 2016 27:08 PM

          Maybe as Americans, even as Canadians as myself, it is hard to see what happening in the world and a lot of the conflicts are directly and indirectly caused by US involvement. It is not by chance that crisis occur at same time around the world and US is seen as having a good economic growth. There are a lot propaganda and a lot of truth. But the central agenda is to drive capital to fly to the US.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:34 AM

    Hi Doc and Cory (and other KER-members).
    I really enjoy listing to your technical discussions. And I try to learn as much as possible.
    It is a good help that you bring snapshots of some of the charts you discuss on your web-page.
    Thank you very much – that is much appreciated.
    Being new to TA, I’d very much like your feedback to the below arguments, being in favour of an short-term increase in the gold price.
    10 days ago gold spiked at it’s recent high around 1260.
    The same day gold’s volatility index (GVZ) spiked almost 10 poins from 21 up to app. 31.
    This Friday GVZ was back again around 21. Meaning some traders are taking off their shorts…
    Since October GVZ has been fluctuating between 15 and 20’ish.
    Next week will show whether 1) GVZ finds a new higher range – e.g. between 21 and 31, or
    2) drops down at prior levels between 15 and 20.
    MACD of the GVZ, has just made a cross-over indicating that GVZ can fall further. Hence indicating the shorts of gold to reduce – and gold to go up…
    In my opinion the above analysis is in favour of an increasing goldprice. Especially because 2 out of 3 ‘high volume dayes’ in 2016 have been on ‘up days’
    I would be very happy to hear your comments on the above argument, Doc and Cory.
    Best Regards.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:44 PM


      I’ll take a shot at your question.

      I just took a look at the GVZ – with which I was not familiar. So thanks for bringing this to our attention.

      I tried to assess any potential correlation between the 2 data series, so I’ve put a 1yr daily chart of GVZ and a 1yr daily chart of spot gold and looked at them together.

      For me, as a methodology, I try to focus on behaviors at extreme – as this is where the indicators SHOULD work, in order for me to view them as “reliable” for personal use.

      Looking at the strong moves up and then pullbacks, maybe I am missing something but I do NOT see any consistent/constant correlation between both over the past 1yr.

      For ex.,
      1) gold’s last big snap in July last year corresponded to a move UP on GVZ.
      2) the last strong leg UP on GVZ from Jan 29 corresponded to a strong move UP in gold –> inconsistent w. the 1)
      3) Take a look at the price action in last August as well… Personally, I couldn’t figure it out a reliable indicator. —> But that’s just me.
      4) taking a broader look at the chart (again, just a 1yr view here):
      the chart for gold was sideways to down till late december. Meanwhile, I view GVZ move as sideways. Then gold moves up and GVZ moves up….

      My 2cts.



        Feb 29, 2016 29:47 AM

        Hi LPG
        Thank you very much for your answer.
        As I understand you, you see GVZ as a less reliable indicator for gold, than the VIX is for the S&P.
        I will consider this, in my future considerations.
        Cheers, Anders

    Feb 27, 2016 27:38 AM

    The G20 has broken up without doing any of the speculated global QE.

    I have no idea how that will affect gold, oil and conventional stocks on Monday but surely the lack of anything will have some affect?

    The only thing they said was that a UK BREXIT would be a global shock – which is obvious – so perhaps they are going to keep their powder dry until the end of June in case massive QE is needed then.

    But, as I say, what happens on Monday is of more immediate interest.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:18 PM

      I though Japan and EU are QEing 🙂

        Feb 27, 2016 27:24 PM

        US just ended QE and still not shrinking money supply. China is the only major economy not having QE, even there are repeated rumour of it. I think deciding to QE is very unlikely since China does not need it and it causes inflation which will hurt the party in power badly. Also China is not controlled by bankers. Government has other ways to stimulate the growth. With the current anti corruption and military reform, Xi is not likely to add another major program. It has too many moving parts, IMO.

      Feb 27, 2016 27:32 PM

      Yes, buut you’re over-thinking now folks 😉

      There was much speculation about some global QE arising from this meeting. There was none. So what happens next week?

    Feb 27, 2016 27:01 PM

    Who knows Bob a Brexit could be the trigger for a global currency reset. Would certainly hasten Italy’s and Portugal’s departure and thus spell the end of the EU
    Matthew Strategic Metals took a hit this week. Any explanation? Thanks, A

      Feb 27, 2016 27:33 PM

      One never knows for sure, but it could simply be attempting to backtest its breakout.

      And/or, since the company has been buying its own shares back for the last few years, it probably did not correct as much as it might have otherwise. In addition, the company has a well diversified portfolio of assets including plenty of cash and has no debt. Such a strong position can limit the initial upside blast as the sector turns from bear to bull because leverage is diminished by such strength. SMD also has no “at the money” deposit or production to get the full benefit of the moves up in the metals.

      My little silver juniors did so well because the shift in their respective situations was much more dramatic.

      Strategic Metals will have its day in a big way; I’m not worried about that.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:40 PM

    Thanks M.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:41 PM

    Some interesting specific details of Clinton Foundation corruption are beginning to appear.
    You give to the Clinton foundation, by direct donations or by hiring Hillary or Bill to give a speech at exorbitant fees and you get special connection treatment.

    The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), a government Agency, allegedly approved a $10 million loan to InnoVida, owned by a Clinton Foundation donor who went to prison.

    An official at the agency, according to the Washington Free Beacon, wrote a memo to officials in 2010 recommending the they provide money to Innovida for the construction of houses in Haiti. The company is owned by Claudio Osorio who donated tens of thousands of dollars to the Clinton Foundation. Osorio had also hosted the Clinton’s at his mansion in 2007.
    Coinciudence, so far, maybe.
    BUT the renewable energy director of OPIC, Lynn Tabernacki put in a report that InnoVida had “U.S. persons of political influence that are able to assist in advancing the company’s plans”. This report claimed former President Bill Clinton was in contact with the company to provide logistical support and that Hillary Clinton could make State Department resources available.
    Less than 24 hours after the request was sent, OPIC approved the loan.
    But the homes in Haiti were never built.
    The next year InnoVida filed for bankruptcy. The Securities and Exchange Commission and FBI subsequently investigated.
    Osorio was sent to 12 years in prison in 2013 for wire fraud and money laundering. He was accused of cheating investors out of $40 million, using the money to pay for his Miami mansion, Maserati and ski chalet in Colorado.
    Tax-payers lose, Clinton foundation wins.
    did the foundation return the money to tax-payers? You must be joking!

    Feb 27, 2016 27:26 PM

    I posted this chart recently showing a positive divergence between the Loonie and oil…

    Feb 27, 2016 27:49 PM

    You can see on the following chart that the Loonie was well off its high by the time oil finally started its own fall. Now, I think think the Loonie will be well off its low by the time oil finally starts to rise.

    The divergences make sense when you consider that a high oil price is only good for oil focused resource stocks so money will start to leave the currency when the rest of the resource space tops and starts to turn down. Conversely, a low oil price is only negative for oil focused resource stocks so money will begin to flow into the currency as the rest of the space bottoms and starts to turn up.

    Feb 27, 2016 27:09 PM

    Listen to this tidbit Lew Rockwell has about Alan Greenspan:

    Feb 27, 2016 27:28 PM

    Apparently, the executive branch believes it can change its own rules without going to Congress or a judge for permission because data comes from surveillance methods that lawmakers did not include in the main law that governs national security wiretapping, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA.
    From a newspaper of Record!

    Feb 27, 2016 27:48 PM

    From Jay Taylor:
    Blackrock’s Peter Fisher explains that negative rates will absolutely fail but the Fed is proposing them to hide the fact that they don’t have answers. In short, our global economy is doomed. Central banks have no answers!

    Feb 27, 2016 27:52 PM

    Oops, wrong mp3 above….

    Feb 28, 2016 28:31 AM

    All in all…..this sounds like it could be a very exciting week for the PM’s ?
    Lets see 🙂

    Feb 28, 2016 28:06 AM

    The Korelin discussion page does not format properly once opened.

    I have updated Golden Band Resources (GBN.V) profile for the benefit of curiosity seekers and rubberneckers.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:32 AM

      So what’s the motive as you see it? More importantly, what’s the opportunity/endgame if there is one?

        Feb 28, 2016 28:29 AM

        Good questions Matthew. FranSix, will Golden Brand get back on the right track, will they start reporting accurate information, and will the marketplace re-rate them? Or are they a sinking ship?

          Feb 28, 2016 28:46 AM

          They’re sitting on a mineral discovery, and have completed their capital raise. All which is kept secret. The challenge is to determine what actionable advice might be appropriate for you.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:56 AM

            Do you think the aim is to keep it all a secret? I would think that the purpose of such efforts would be to consolidate the shares into the fewest possible hands before unveiling the truth after a new bull market is underway. But I might be completely missing a more nefarious angle
            If you feel like giving your opinion, I understand that the risks associated with any actions I take are 100% my responsibility and my risk.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:05 PM

            Yes, definitely. They can’t table results until financing is completed, which was done by last September as far as I reckon, and are now awaiting inprovement in the gold price posture. Yeah, exactly, what motive could they have, other than a like a shareholder squeeze out?

            I’m thinking that the gold price is ‘saving our bacon’ right now since we have either a pause in the decline or a preliminary rise to the resumption of the bull, so there won’t be any extraordinarily adverse actions taken.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:34 PM

            Thank you. It’s interesting that Waterton is involved because tiny Timberline Resources has had an unusually hard time since Waterton took an interest. The press releases over the last 7 months or more will get you up to date if you are curious:

            They essentially gave away their Butte project (with high grade near term production) and are now valued at roughly $1 per ounce of gold in the ground (M&I + Inferred) at their Nevada properties. Why would a company with quality assets, no debt, and the ability to raise capital through private placements pretend to be so desperate?

            I’m not going to lay it out but there is a lot that doesn’t add up.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:53 PM

            Btw, the company that bought the Butte project just happens to have, as its president and director, the former chairman of Timberline.

            Looks like Timberline was raided in my opinion.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:58 PM

            I think Waterton is Sprott. Or at least, they play the same games.

            With GBN.V, you have the top people in mining, the top people in mining finance, the top non-unionized mining subcontractor that operates on some of the biggest mining prospects in Canada, and they all say they don’t work on small potatoes mining projects.

            So why bother with this one?

            Feb 28, 2016 28:04 PM

            Interesting you should bring that up. I recently mentioned to Glenfidish that guys like Rule (and others) take that stance on small projects because they want them for themselves.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:29 PM

            For the most part that is pretty true. ( Success does have its privileges.)

            Feb 28, 2016 28:47 PM

            Or they could be looking to consolidate them all.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:13 PM

            Could be…

            Feb 28, 2016 28:44 PM

            Very interesting discussion guys. I have no doubt that some of the bigger players in the industry, would like to consolidate some of the quality properties or companies while very few are interested or watching the mining sector.

            Thanks FranSix for your thoughts on Golden Band Resources, and for keeping us posted.

            Feb 29, 2016 29:19 AM

            One thing that was missed is that GBN.V with its La Ronge Gold Project have the involvement of the federal government, a federal agency, namely The Royal Canadian Mint as a counterparty, and the express involvement of the Province Of Saskatchewan who upgraded the transmission line cutting across the property.

    Feb 28, 2016 28:06 AM
      Feb 28, 2016 28:25 AM

      Are you sure? It is the end of February. Gold peaks between Feb-April prior to 2011. Last few years has been unreliable.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:43 AM

      Thanks for the chart. Yep Gold popped it’s head above the 50 day EMA.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:44 AM

        50 month EMA

        Feb 28, 2016 28:59 AM

        There is actually no price on the top chart. That’s the 10 month EMA crossing above the 50 month EMA.

        Fwiw, Jeff Kern’s unique SKI system generated a major buy signal on 1/25/16 — of course that’s for the miners not gold itself.

          Feb 28, 2016 28:03 AM

          Correction: Those are weekly EMAs.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:42 PM

            OK now I see that there was no price and it is the 10 week MA crossing the 50 week MA. Originally I thought it was the gold price crossing the 50 month MA, but I figured there would be more people tracking that one anyway.

            Matthew, in your experience how reliable of an indicator is using the 10 week versus the 50 week? I’ve heard people using the 50 week versus the 200 week, or 50 day versus the 200 days before, but not this 10 versus 50 before.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:22 PM

            It’s not an indicator I’ve used but we can see that it failed in six months after the 1999 cross. That comparison makes more sense than the 2012 one but even 1999 isn’t great because that marked the end of a 20 year secular bear as well as a cyclical one. This time, we are very much in a secular bull, so 2008 might be the one to look at unless we can get the data for the 1970s.


            Feb 28, 2016 28:50 PM

            Thanks for the response back Matthew.

            Good point about the 1999 cross, but in my view, a good indicator like this works regardless of the fundamental backdrop. It would seem the 2008 cross would be a better comparison though technically, and if one accounts for the fundamental backdrop, then this is another turbulent financial mess like that was.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:48 AM

      There are 4 “buy signals” marked on that chart, without profit taking selling 2 made money, 1 without stops and selling lost a ton of cash and the most recent….remains to be seen.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:11 AM

        The monthly MACD was on a big sell signal during that fakeout in 2012. Today, it is on a good looking buy signal.

    Feb 28, 2016 28:08 AM

    Like I said the other day, the moving averages haven’t looked this good in 15 years. It’s plain to see why it was much riskier to bet on the 2012 move.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:59 PM

      Here’s a piggyback off that chart using the 33, 50, and 200 EMA.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:01 PM

        The 200 week MA has capped rallies on 2 separate peaks, and we are tapping on it again at present. If there was a place for a reversal, this seems like logical resistance.

          Feb 28, 2016 28:05 PM

          Yes that’s a logical resistance for sure. One of the many things we haven’t had until now is four weeks above the 50 week moving average.

    Feb 28, 2016 28:21 AM

    “OUT” Davd Icke urges the Brexit outers on… scroll down…

    Feb 28, 2016 28:27 PM

    The rerason uncontrolled immigration matters.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:32 PM

      Whoever said that it didn’t matter?

    Feb 28, 2016 28:16 PM

    Clive Maund has posted an article on his website which mentions an imminent PM sector bloodbath.

    I don’t have a subscription so don’t know what he says specifically.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:14 PM

      Well Bob, looks like we have some people saying “bloodbath” and others saying “up it goes” and still others saying “up then down” or “up down up” etc etc
      Nothings changed it seems, gold will either go up or down.

      Gary/Rick were saying up, Doc says down, Jordan was sayin up then changed his mind, I say “flip a coin and ya got a 50% chance of being right”. lol

        Feb 28, 2016 28:34 PM

        I say choppy sideways then up then mini bloodbath.

          Feb 28, 2016 28:29 PM

          I don’t understand why you guys insist in looking at the market in black and white.

          Over a certain level, it is bullish . . under it is bearish. THIS is how you should deal with non-linear markets.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:58 PM

            1.) There’s nothing wrong with guessing what might happen next.

            2.) There is a lot more than one approach to doing well in the markets.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:00 PM


            “guessing” and investing are not the same. You want to guess, then you are doing nothing more than going to vegas.

            And, any approach that views markets from a linear perspective is wrong, as markets are simply not linear. Are there multiple ways to view markets from a non-linear perspective? Sure. But, again, it still looks at in the manner I speak out above.

            Feb 28, 2016 28:20 PM

            Avi, guessing that it will do something is not the same as taking action based on that guess. There are signals for that. Having said that, don’t let the word “guess” fool you. We are all guessing when it comes down to it. What varies dramatically is what each of our guesses are based on.

            What I do is nothing like going to Vegas and no one is less linear in their thinking than I am.

            Have fun with EW.

            Feb 29, 2016 29:44 AM

            Is there another type of market than non-linear?

      Feb 28, 2016 28:15 PM

      I personally don’t agree Bob.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:25 PM

        There is why I do not agree: weak economies that are not collapsing because the confidence is still there and that is keeping them afloat.. I think that this will soon come to a screaming halt!

          Feb 28, 2016 28:04 PM

          Its a funny economy alright, there are about 20-25% outa work, yet lottsa bartenders and waiters required, means there are lots of people going to restaurants. So somebody has cash,
          Suprbowl still sells out I think, actors musicians athletes still make millions.

          When driverless vehicles arrive we will go another 5%+ more unemployed, lots more reasons for more people to get unemployed, maybe 25%+ unemployed is about to get called normal.

          Maybe its just a change in training required for employment, google will hire 100% of anyone trained to “code”, weve been thru changes like that before, imagine going to school to learn to be a typewriter mechanic.

          Im glad I dont even have to be concerned about what time I wake up, lol

      Feb 28, 2016 28:05 PM

      In the free section of A convincing perspective from a heavyweight.

    Feb 28, 2016 28:23 PM

    The money wants Donald Trump but Donald Trump doesn’t want the lobbyist’s money, he knows that they will want 10, 20, or 50 times as much back if he accepts their donations and becomes The next President. Pardon me, did I read that right! DT

      Feb 28, 2016 28:14 PM

      I have had a lot of conversations this weekend about him. Are you still a great supporter, Mr TRACY?

        Feb 28, 2016 28:47 PM

        Al, Donald Trump is The Real Deal for America, in 1932 The US had The New Deal now they have The Real Deal. Trump is playing the lone hand, his intelligence is visual and oral, he gets his information from the people and human contacts. In opposing the establishment this shows his uncompromising quality of mind that will make him a winner for America and it’s allies. DT

    Feb 28, 2016 28:47 PM

    I think the surprises will be the upside.
    A few of the best in the business have said “We are in a bull market” Gold is better then silver at this time. Gold is flying in many currency’s…

    Feb 28, 2016 28:24 PM

    When the whole rigged establishment is against Trump? How could you Not support him?! He exposes everyone! It’s a beautiful thing, and much needed.
    It’s where balls and brilliance converge.

    Great stuff from Ex,Matthew,Fran and Glen.

    My technicals are saying metals hit the skids shortly.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:51 PM

      Chartster, why doesn’t it bother you that he’d be as unconstitutional as the rest? He is absolutely no threat at all to the real power and does not intend to be. What you are watching is a bunch of guys fighting over who gets to be the next puppet. That’s all.

      As James Corbett says, the master class is playing 3-D chess while everyone else is playing checkers or 2-D chess.

      This was a good episode…

        Feb 28, 2016 28:27 PM

        I believe your right on that one Mathew, It makes no dif who is president.
        I figure they put Trump there so people keep believing in the system.
        They are strong enough to point out their own criminality etc and nobody can do a darn thing about it now.
        Heck, they would crucify/sacrifice the entire Bush family if they figured they had to, wouldnt change a thing.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:20 PM

        I judge him not for what he has, or has not done. I judge him from who opposes him. And his opposition are some sick puppies!

        Republican establishment, CFR, and anyone with financial control if the US.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:43 PM

      Thanks Chartster. Have a great week and may your trading be prosperous.

      Feb 29, 2016 29:47 AM

      ‘the whole rigged establishment is against Trump’….you really think he’d be there if that were the case?

      Where was the great revolution in peoples’ understanding that has led them to this point where they are finally ready to break the shackles? I guess I somehow missed it.

      Feb 28, 2016 28:59 PM

      Matthew……that’s an old one.

        Feb 28, 2016 28:10 PM

        At two weeks old, it was new to me. I don’t think I’ve watched a full episode since 2011.

    Feb 28, 2016 28:11 PM

    Hey guys, Explain to me whenever gold/silver ratio gets high up higher high than
    2008 isn’t telling us something bad or Financial stress coming. thanks a lot.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:42 AM

    From a high altitude observation, may the 6×24 monthly simple Moving average 94 month potential crossover waterfall SPY close today be the event to propel gold to the next level? We are there right now. Last month’s close took BOJ/ESF intervention to preclude that event. Just a thought.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:55 AM

    We are probably still 2-6 months from seeing the corresponding long term 6×24 crossover in gold should we see sustained upward price movement, but well worth watching.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:57 AM

    This is crazy, a standard 3 bedroom frame home on a lot 33 by 120 feet built in 1912 in Vancouver just sold for $735,000 over the asking price, final price $4.23 million. This is a Bob M moment where the bottom is coming fast because The Top is too stupid to be a real market.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:56 AM

    Chicago Manufacturing Sector Contracts In February, Giving Up January’s Gains
    Monday February 29, 2016

    Feb 29, 2016 29:03 AM

    Pressure from the dirtballs out of London and New York will always be too much…

    India imposes gold sales tax on top of record import duty

    Still, like I expected, Indians are buyers now that the news is out.

      Feb 29, 2016 29:49 AM

      Don’t worry, Trump will fix those dirtballs. 🙂 TNTLOL (trying not to LOL)

    Feb 29, 2016 29:19 AM

    Monday February 29, 2016

    OceanaGold Announces ‘Design Enhancements’ At Haile

    Endeavour Mining Announces Increase In Reserves

    Coeur Extends High-Grade Mineralization At Rochester

      Feb 29, 2016 29:36 AM

      Perseus Mining is taking over & merging with Amara Mining (further consolidating its position as a solid producer & development company in W. Africa)

        Feb 29, 2016 29:45 AM

        Here is the new Corporate Presentation highlighting Perseus Mining’s takeover of Amara.

        This looks to be an excellent combination of resources and by next year Perseus should have 3 mines in operation w/ a 4th potential development project:

        –Edikan – Large, low grade operating gold mine in Ghana, Mineral Reserve of 2.4Moz1, strong production profile to FY2024
        –Yaoure – PFS stage project in Cote d’Ivoire, 5.2Moz M&I Mineral Resource2 – one of the best undeveloped gold assets in Africa
        –Sissingue – DFS stage project in Cote d’Ivoire
        –Baomahun – Optionality to gold market recovery in Sierra Leone

    Feb 29, 2016 29:27 AM

    Shorts like Clive Maund look like Elmer Fudd today. That imminent bloodbath he predicted is happening, just not quite the way he thought. 😮

      Feb 29, 2016 29:40 AM

      Come Come now….. not Elmer Fudd. The week just got started and Gold hasn’t broken out to new highs yet either, and the chart does look very top heavy and ready for a pullback in Gold. I’m keeping an open mind at this point, because as you & Gary have mentioned the indicators can remain overbought for a while if it is a baby bull, but they do definitely look like things are ready to pullback on the MACD, Slow Stochastics, and RSI. We’ll see how things go the remainder of the week.

        Feb 29, 2016 29:59 AM

        Don’t forget the chart of CRJ I put recently. Not only can the miners stay overbought, but what Maund is missing is that the overbought readings can swing to oversold without the price going anywhere.
        I’ll stick with my call last night that we’ll chop up and down this week (maybe between 1200 and 1270). Miners that remain cheap like IPT and USA seem unlikely to have a “bloodbath” UNLESS the bear is still alive.
        I wonder how many small investors think guys like Rick Rule or Rob McEwen care about a price chart when they take a large position in a tiny venture stock.

        I specifically said Maund looks like Fudd TODAY since he made his dramatic call using words like “imminent” and “bloodbath.” DUST and JDUST are down about 7.5% at the moment. The imminent bloodbath is all his so far. Darn wascally bull. 🙂

        Again, surprises will be to the upside so we should err on the side of the bull.

          Feb 29, 2016 29:05 AM

          Good thoughts. I have a lot of respect for Clive, but you are correct that he went overboard with the “bloodbath” comments.

          I’m leaning towards a pullback as well, but still have some (25% of my ideal) silver and gold stock exposure if the miners want to keep rallying. As we mentioned, that 200 Week Moving average looks like an area that would be strong resistance.

          Feb 29, 2016 29:20 AM

          Maund did come out on a previous call on the 11th very bullish, so I was a bit surprised at this recent call. I have followed his posts for as long as 321 gold has been around near 15 years and he was one of the few objective analysts out here giving his perspective from somewhere residing in S. america. Silver is what perplexes me now, we’re we to get that escalation to the $16.60 range, would make me feel happier. Silvers definitely we the big performers back in the 2000-2002 time frame, more similar to where we are right now then off the bottom in 2008.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:11 AM

    Fwiw, I have not raised cash while taking profits but have rebalanced and and bought a few new plays that looked ripe. It has worked extremely well. One gold play more than doubled while another gained 50%. Today, a new uranium play is up 21% since I bought it last week.

    It takes some effort but there are good places right now to put profits besides cash.

      Feb 29, 2016 29:27 AM

      I had a good 100% pop in Mexus Gold over the last 2 weeks but sold it for cash. I also trimmed back a number of winners the last 2 weeks and am cashed up. I rarely leave cash sitting idle for long, but I wanted to see if metals were going to top out and go into some of the more liquid names. However, I may just go more speculative where the metal prices are not as relevant.

      May your trading go well.

      * Out of curiousity, which Uranium company are you looking at?

        Feb 29, 2016 29:44 AM

        Well.. I guess i can disclose it, just for you, of course. 😉

        I’m now up 25% and it is halted. UEX Corporation

          Feb 29, 2016 29:50 AM

          Yep. I’ve been watching ole’ UEX Corp and have owned it off and on over the years. They have so many JVs with the Uranium giant Areva, that I expect them to get bought out by Areva at one point.

      Feb 29, 2016 29:56 AM

      CFS – You’re late to the party man 🙂

      That article was posted as the 3rd post from the top of this weekend blog. It is great though, and I agree about many of the stocks they follow like Claude, Richmont, Lake Shore Gold, Guyana Goldfields, Gold Standard Ventures, Midas Gold, Dalradian Resources, and Newmarket Gold. The only 2 I was not familiar with were Azure Minerals and Evrim Resources Corp. Are you familiar with either of those 2?

    Feb 29, 2016 29:56 AM

    Joe sounds like a very focused individual.

    Feb 29, 2016 29:18 PM

    Well folks, it’s wait & see if the crossover waterfall in the S&P manifests, we crossed & closed under the94 month Maginot line of the 6×24 monthly moving average.