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The similarities between gold currently and a year ago

Cory
December 15, 2016

Craig Hemke is with us today to share his thoughts on the similarities between gold trading in the past month compared to a year ago. As gold continues to move down people are now wondering if we will see a pop similar to what we saw in January this year. There are a number of similarities but also a couple differences to consider.

Click here to visit Craig’s site for more gold focused commentary.

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Discussion
25 Comments
    Dec 15, 2016 15:37 PM

    Craig seems about as lost as I do. Here’s some music some may enjoy:
    https://www.youtube.com/embed/khQN5ylb3H0

      Dec 15, 2016 15:51 PM

      Thanks for sharing that. Check this out.
      I highly recommend the full documentary…Samsara.

      https://youtu.be/LjXWqKKLW6g

        DC
        Dec 15, 2016 15:30 PM

        DPH, thanks for posting this. I had seen a longer video of these young women years ago, and was transfixed. Extraordinary precision… all the more so with them being deaf!

          Dec 16, 2016 16:12 AM

          The full version is Samsara 2 (2010?) and it’s far more than just those performers doing that hand dance.

          The documentary is basically a stunning videography of someone’s interpretation of the beginning of pre-human evolution and then showing mans effect on earth and life and then how everything will eventually return to it’s basic origins.
          At least that’s my interpretation. I highly recommend it.

          Visually stunning and you won’t regret it.

            Dec 16, 2016 16:09 AM

            Thank you DPH. Stunning as you said.

      DC
      Dec 15, 2016 15:35 PM

      Absolutely fabulous! Thank you for sharing that, Silverdollar!

      Dec 15, 2016 15:13 PM

      Silverdollar:

      Excellent. Pleased that the USAF is recognizing their WW2 US Army Air Corp roots complete with Army uniforms and patches. Go Army !

    CFS
    Dec 15, 2016 15:44 PM
    Dec 15, 2016 15:54 PM

    Bo Polny should be in jail.

    He is a pumpers pumper.

    This is the type of garbage I am talking about.

    Why do you even bother to listen to a snake oil huckster like him?

    Dec 15, 2016 15:01 PM

    One listens to Bo Polny so they can laugh and be entertained.

      Dec 15, 2016 15:46 PM

      The entire political and market landscape is entirely different. Similarities?

      “A Timeline For The Next Rally In Gold”

      “It’s still possible that gold could trade AS LOW as $1285 and back near its 50-day moving average before bottoming. This area has proven as support all year.”

      “Then, finally, a breakout to new 2016 highs in October and November.”
      “This year-end rally should take gold all the way back to near the April 2013 manipulated breakdown level of $1525. Let’s call it $1475-$1525.”

      “So there you go. That’s what WE expect.
      If I’M proven correct, I’LL gladly take all the ADULATION that comes this way.”

      http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7751/timeline-next-rally-gold

    Dec 15, 2016 15:06 PM

    Great interview. Of course I agree with Craig’s points. :). Thanks.

    Dec 15, 2016 15:21 PM

    I watched that Bo Polny video. This guy is out of his mind. A complete wacko.

    I won’t even call him a pumper anymore. I actually think he believes his own BS.

    The guy is from another planet.

      Dec 15, 2016 15:41 PM

      He’s a bullshit artist that comes off as genuine to those who like the message.

      The most prevalent definitions of a Bullshit Artist are:

      • “A person expert at deception, and hype.”

      • “A person with a talent for convincing lies.”

      • “A person who habitually exaggerates, flatters, or talks nonsense.”

      • “A person who lies/boasts incessantly, usually to comedic effect, intentional or accidental.”

      • “A person who specializes in a field of feeding its surrounding persons with uselessness.”

      • “A true master of verbal façade who gets off on selling worthless information as if it was fact.”

      People seeking notoriety (or believing they’ve acheived it) or seeking adulation/vindication/validation etc. generally fall under B.S.r’s or just garden variety narcissists. You Tube is loaded with them.
      I mean, c’mon, who in their right mind keeps putting their name and integrity on the line while continuously making wildly wrong predictions and insisting that they’re right year after year…and ask people to support them no matter what.

        Dec 16, 2016 16:22 AM

        DPH:

        Good list and almost all of them would fit JTL except the talent for convincing lies. He lies constantly but it’s not really very convincing.

        He’s been wrong all this year, keeps being wrong and insists that he is right.

    Dec 15, 2016 15:34 PM

    Excuse me, since when Yen is backed by gold or gold is backed by Yen?

      Dec 15, 2016 15:52 PM

      It’s not.
      The guest “analyst” essentially claims the price of gold in USD is controlled by the USD/JPY currency carry trade.
      Sometimes it appears to correlate that way, sometimes it clearly doesn’t.
      It’s not just gold that’s effected (or uneffected) by that currency pairing.

      Food for thought…

      “Are the People being Manipulated by Those Claiming Manipulation?”

      COMMENT: Marty, the goldbugs are out in force saying that the banks have admitted they manipulated silver. It is interesting how these people lack any understanding of the markets. Just give up. They deserve their own fate.
      BD

      REPLY: Yes, I know. It is rather pathetic. It demonstrates how ignorant they are about trading and the marketplace. The banks have been clipping people for decades (“manipulation”). The big institutional traders have been slow to realize that you cannot trade with someone who takes the other side of that trade and expect them to do this on an altruistic endeavor. This type of “manipulation” is by no means systemic to justify that they have been so dead wrong in their forecasting for decades.

      This “manipulation” has always been present in every market. The dealers know where the stops are, and if they are within striking distance, they “manipulate” the market to execute them. The floor brokers routinely used to tell you where the stops were. Sometimes they were too close and could be taken out so the brokers went for them. Other times they could not reach them. Sure, you can call this “manipulation.”

      However, that manipulation does not alter a trend. That is completely different from “manipulating” a bull market into a bear market. But hey, I agree. They deserve what they get.
      They act as if the metals are unique and only they have been suppressed. NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES = DEFLATION. The disposable income of the elderly has collapsed.
      Sorry, where is the inflation coming from except in their dreams. The world is imploding.

      I do agree. These people have been wrong and they want to blame everyone else in the world but themselves. They alone are right and the world is wrong.

      They do deserve what they get for if they cannot learn the lesson that the FREE MARKET is everything connected, then they will be separated from their money every time. They are the fuel that drives the markets because the MAJORITY must always be wrong. They do not want to admit that, so they lie to themselves and say that the world is wrong and they alone are right. They are ignorant to the fact that we are in a commodity deflationary trend because China turned down and sharply reduced their buying. India put on all kinds of regulation to stop gold purchases. They ignore that as well. So yes, they deserve what they get if they cannot see the light.

      Those who immediately claim the goldbugs are correct lack any trading experience whatsoever. Why are they even pretending to comment on the markets when they do not understand how they work? That would be no different than me trying to critique a brain surgeon. Come on.
      If you have never traded size, you are not qualified to comment. You obviously have never seen how banks move spreads to clip clients ALL THE TIME.

      Why do you think many banks are ending their proprietary trading like TD Bank in Canada and Deutsche Bank? All banks who trade on a proprietary basis “manipulate” the market in this way by moving the spreads to clip clients. How do you think they made money? The goldbugs forget the fact that the banks were fined for putting out fake research in 2003 for the DOT.COM bubble.
      The SEC announced:
      The “global settlement” concludes a joint investigation begun in April by regulators into the undue influence of investment banking interestson securities research at brokerage firms. The settlement will bring about balanced reform in the industry and bolster confidence in the integrity of equity research.

      http://www.sec.gov_news_digest_12-20-2002 Research Plea

      I absolutely know for a fact that some pretend analysts have been paid by the bankers to mislead people into buying so they could take the other side. Plain and simple. But as long as they tell people to “buy” the metals, they walk on water, even when WRONG, and people lose money.
      So let’s get real here. You are not an “analyst” if you ONLY forecast to buy. Sorry, that is a promoter, not an independent analyst.
      If you have never traded size, then you cannot possibly understand how this type of “manipulation” has always existed, and to convert this into proof why the metals are not 30x higher is consumer fraud in my book. Where’s the proof?
      This is like a guy writing a book on how it “feels” to give birth. If you have not traded size, you cannot understand how this type of “manipulation” does not alter trend; it simply functions with the noise zone of a market (any market, since they do it to them all).

      http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/are-the-

    Dec 15, 2016 15:36 PM

    “Do People Hear Only What They Want to Hear?

    Posted Dec 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

    QUESTION: You always say the markets cannot be manipulated. Deutsche Bank is turning over the smoking gun. Any comment?

    ANSWER: It seems you are using the term “manipulation” extremely loosely. You are mixing this term up with collusion and coordination, yes with the intent to “move” a market within the immediate trend which is not “manipulation” as it is being thrown around. Front-running and pressing or spoofing a market does not translate into systemically suppressing a market to prevent it from ever rallying for decades. Nobody does that and it would produce no instant profit. All the emails and text messages in the Deutsche Bank released illustrate collusion and coordinated events to press the market within the immediate trend. They do not show systemic perpetual manipulation. Here is what I wrote in Behind The Curtain back in 2009. The information now surfacing from the Deutsche Bank files confirms what I wrote about years ago… (read more)

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/do-people-hear-only-what-they-want-to-hear/

      Dec 17, 2016 17:26 PM

      Sub-$1,000 is clearly a possibility and one look at a 10 year chart almost screams the big round number that $1,000 represents.
      Algorithims and high freq. trading almost gaurantee we get really close to $1,000 and possibly lower. (Fwiw, $940-$875 has been my guess for awhile.)
      I think there’s too many promoters that are so emotionally invested that they can’t even conceive or admit too themselves or their followers that they’ve been horribly wrong in this downturn that’s headed towards $1,000.
      I saw Bill Holter’s recent article and his weak reasoning and response to Armstrong’s sub- $1,000 gold article recently.
      Guy’s like him have their backs against the wall of credibility and he needed to get out in front of what Armstrong stated in his usually logical way. His logic is sound and he sounds rationale.
      On one hand, Holter finds comfort in what Armstrong had to say about silver. Holter and people like him are grasping and hoping for any silver lining to feel good about or to show their followers that there’s still hope that silver isn’t tarnished indefinitely. (Fwiw, I think we see silver hit low $12’s)
      And then Holter goes on to say that $1,000 isn’t possible and will not happen. Anyone with two eyes who can read a chart and saw gold already hit $1048 over a year ago clearly has sound ground to reasonably see that might be possible again. And they would be right to show concern.
      Holter sought to put a fire extinguisher to their logic by slamming Armstrong while at the same time telling him he was smart about silver.
      So which is it Bill? Is Armstrong an idiot or is he wise? Do you or the other pumpers realize Armstrong is calling for $5000 gold at some point within the next decade?
      It seems no one wants to acknowledge that Armstrong actually recognizes manipulation/clipping takes place or that he’s ultimately bullish on gold.
      And then there’s the schmucks out there who actually mock Armstrong for being incarcerated (illegally btw) because they can’t handle the fact that he’s not a mindless permabull.
      But if the guy had been jailed by the DOJ and he was a permabull he would’ve been hailed as some type of goldbug legend who stood up to the system for what he believed in.
      But nevermind that he thinks $5000 gold is coming because he’s a bearish jailbird in some clowns mind.
      Holter also went on to say that Armstrong, who btw is amazingly brilliant in his historical comparisons and analysis, that Armstrong was mostly wrong about golds valuation vs. the dollar during the 1930’s gold act that FDR initiated.
      Holter conveniently leaves out the fact that gold was been revalued AFTER it was confiscated and that the dollar theoretically was weaker by approx. 70% because of golds revaluation later.
      But, so what? It’s not like there was any direct effect on the dollar or their gold stack because THEY NO LONGER OWNED ANY GOLD and no one saw any return on their gold or experienced a loss on their dollar as far as any inflationary pressure due to Holters weaker dollar theory.
      Holter then went on to comment or imply how inflationary of a period the great depression was and how wrong Armstrong was. Are you kidding me?
      U’mm, Bill…it was called a depression because of the deflation…not inflation from a weaker currency.
      And if you asked anyone who lived during that period most people were hurting for paper money and in fact $1 bought quite a bit back then during that deflationary period. People back then DID NOT EXPERIENCE a sudden 70% devaluation of their money. That is fact.
      But what do I know? I’m just some objective guy online with no emotional investment that finds the constant mindless and sometimes obviously phony permabull fake analysis that’s gone on to be a sickening display of greed and ego throughout the metals blogosphere.
      Do the pumpers out there really believe that no one can look at a chart and see $1000 sitting right there and that there’s no chance it comes close or breaches it?
      At some point people wake up and realize their being taken for as useful idiots in someone elses obsession that revolves around gold and doomer collapse scenarios.
      At this point, all the promoters are on the hot seat and when/if gold pierces $1000 it’s game over (and it is a game) for guys like Holter, Polny, Turd etc.
      What will they say then about Armstrong? That he actually believes that gold hits $5000?
      The anti-Armstrong crowd basically dislikes him because he’s not a mindless permabull and that he’s been right while they’ve been wrong.
      It’s as simple as that and it’s childish behavior from those with the shrillest voices who are making themselves look bad while mocking others for being right only because they can’t handle being wrong.
      Kind of like what Hillary’s doing…it’s always someone else’s fault but never their own behavior or the lack of substance that most objective people can see right through. Yep, blame others.

    Dec 16, 2016 16:14 AM

    For those who preach in bullshit, theres an old adage in Aus: You cant bullshit a bullshitter. Hence i dont buy any of Bo’s bolony

    Dec 16, 2016 16:17 AM

    I can guarantee gold doesnt reach the 1475-1525 bracket by years end. I will gladly put all my pms on the line for that call

    Dec 16, 2016 16:50 AM

    For all intensive purposes we are ‘there’ having tested now the inflation line on the monthly chart. The technicals suggest very bearish signals.

    http://schrts.co/NaMYEI

    Dec 16, 2016 16:54 AM

    Thanks for the interview guys. I agree that Dollar:Yen is triggering computer selling of the precious metals, and there is a strong correlation to Gold and Yen:Dollar ratio.

    History does seem to be “rhyming” with the end of 2015, with the first rate hike and the PM selloff in December. This leads more credence to the larger W-shaped “double-bottom” in Gold near last years lows, but I expect Gold to bounce before it gets near the $1045.40 low of 2015. It also appears to be setting up for another first quarter relief-rally in the PMs for Q1 2017.

    The good news is we are getting what appears to be a replay of last year, so for those that missed the move in Jan- Summer of 2016, you know what a good idea will be if we see continued weakness in the metals an miners. If it feels difficult to buy when there is so much red on the screen and sentiment gets real negative, then your contrarian alarm should start going off. Just a thought….

    Dec 16, 2016 16:32 AM

    Good Points,Excelsior
    I agree with Robert Moriarty when he said,

    “With mining shares it’s not so much about levels for me. It will be time to buy when everyone hates mining stocks and the talking heads of financial media are negative on gold & silver and have nothing good to say about the gold miners.”

    I do not think that we are there yet.

    2016 was a good year for me,(of course it had been better if i had sold all of my pm stocks August 2016)still hold some core miners.
    I do not trade GDX or GDXJ,but i think GDX will hit ca 16-18 and GDXJ ca 28-29

    Just my personal opinions 🙂