A Technical Analyst To Follow – Long Term Gold Charts

October 21, 2017

I am happy to introduce a new analysis who I have been following for a number of years, David Vincent. David is focused on longer term technicals for the metals sector. This is a very technical conversation but even for those who do not put a lot of weight in charts David has some things to consider.

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Gold:HUI Chart


    Oct 21, 2017 21:42 PM

    What reader of these pages couldn’t like these charts and David’s thoughts. Thanks much for posting. It would be interesting during the 1st quarter to see how his projections have worked out. Will leave that responsibility to you, Cory!

    Oct 21, 2017 21:15 PM

    Great guest and charts, thanks! It pays to take the long view.

    Oct 21, 2017 21:18 PM

    What vehicle is probably the best to invest in for the long term rise in the PM’s? How does one play the XAU to ride the rise up? Does one use GDX or is there some other vehicle that stands in a better place to take advantage of this long term outlook? Not investment advice, but information to someone not well versed in the sector and its vehicles.

      Oct 21, 2017 21:37 PM

      A few of the main options:

      ETFs: GDX & SGDM (majors), GDXJ & SGDJ (juniors), GOEX (explorers), SIL (majors), SILJ (juniors)
      Mutual Funds: USERX, TGLDX, VGPMX

      Oct 22, 2017 22:04 AM

      I would avoid GDX and GDXJ. SGDM and SGDJ are better vehicles, as they are not influenced by leveraged ETfs linked to GDX and GDXJ. GOEX is a bit of a misnomer, as most of the stocks in this ETF are NOT explorers. The ETFs I like are SILJ, SGDJ, SGDM. Then for the stocks NEM, NCMGY and PAAS. These 3 ETfs and these 3 stocks should give you a good spread. Put them in the bottom drawer for the next 3 to 5 years and forget about the daily noise, Its irrelevant.

    Oct 21, 2017 21:57 PM

    A Cool MAN ! Cory ?

    Oct 21, 2017 21:46 PM

    I am in SAND and 2 other gold stocks. But with poor results. Doing better with food and soda pop stocks. Now looking to invest 2 % of my wealth in Bitcoin and Alt coins . My bond funds are ok but go mainly sideways . Trump needs to make some kind of deal with DEMS TERM LIMITS , OR POPULAR VOTE FOR pRES. In exchanged they could pay for the wall, and SOME of the tax cuts he wants. Pray for sanity. love to all S

    Oct 21, 2017 21:37 PM

    where can i find more info about David Vincent?

      Oct 22, 2017 22:07 PM

      Go to and you will find the service he is offering. Focuses on junior explorers.

    Oct 21, 2017 21:38 PM

    Thanks for bringing David’s view to the Weekend Show.
    David, many thanks for your bigger picture views/thoughts/forecast….much appreciated.
    Hope you & Cory can both find time to have you on the Show more frequently in the future.
    Thanks for your perspective.

      Oct 22, 2017 22:45 PM


      Oct 23, 2017 23:54 AM

      Agreed. If David is Spock, then I’ve been following his info on Goldtent for a few years and he seems to be an excellent technician. Thanks for the TA discussion guys.

    Oct 22, 2017 22:07 PM

    Spock is a legend! His market calls are scary accurate. BTW, he has a Wolfe Wave target on the USD Index at somewhere near 83.

    Oct 22, 2017 22:53 PM

    Now here’s an ugly short-term chart for you, Spanky.

    As I said last week, it looks like Gary Savage was right and that we have a lower low ahead for an ICL. In December? $30-31 in GDXJ? $21ish in GDX? These are just guesses.

    I’m flat now and may go short tomorrow. I definitely want to be long at the next daily cycle low.

      Oct 22, 2017 22:03 PM

      Actually, I’d guess November, not December.

      Oct 23, 2017 23:17 PM

      I want to be long at the next daily cycle low, but find myself long at present, and have debated taking out a short position as a hedge, but may just ride it out for the next 2 months. Personally, I was expecting Gold/Silver to show a bit more strength the last month or so and the metals do appear to still be in corrective mode.

    Oct 23, 2017 23:14 AM
    Oct 23, 2017 23:41 AM

    The first chart is interesting for me particularly being in Aus. Specifically, if the Aus dollar traces the prediction, It will create headwinds for our economy. We shall see.

    Oct 23, 2017 23:44 AM
      Oct 23, 2017 23:46 AM

      Maxy Waters should run for commissioner of NFL……

      Oct 23, 2017 23:41 AM

      I read yesterday that attendance was down significantly. I don’t see that, do you?

        Oct 23, 2017 23:59 AM

        Owl……..I have totally disconnected from football and basketball………more interested in opera and the finer arts….. 🙂

        Oct 23, 2017 23:12 AM

        BTW…..left you a note on the star of david comment………..hope you are having a great day……………..JOOTB

        Oct 23, 2017 23:16 AM

        I am boycotting the NFL, and I have never watched the NBA or NHL. Baseball is our national pastime. Go Astros!

    Oct 23, 2017 23:00 AM

    6 Years Ago Today, The Us Helped Murder Gaddafi To Stop The Creation Of Gold-Backed Currency
    October 20, 2017

    Six years ago today, the West took it upon itself to use NATO to overthrow Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi — not for any humanitarian threat to civilians as had been repeatedly claimed — but because his planned roll-out of a new currency to be used across Africa posed a palpable existential threat to central banks at the heart of the Western financial and political system.

    Long theorized to be the actual vehicle for Gaddafi’s downfall, the gold dinar-based, pan-African currency motive came to light in nascent 2016 in one of more than 3,000 of Hillary Clinton’s emails released by the State Department — conveniently timed with the New Year’s holiday to abate outrage or repercussions.

    And outrage there should still be — plenty of false posturing in the lead-in to the ultimate overthrow of the Gaddafi regime should sour public trust in the West’s geopolitical motives, as a prime example of embroiling itself in unnecessary conflict every time a nation threatens to gain too much independence.

    In March 2011, amid heightening rebellion of the Arab Spring, chaos came to Libya’s second-largest city, Benghazi — and the West and its allies quickly capitalized on those events to partake in a falsely-premised rebellion of its own.

    Citing a decades-old U.N. Security Council resolution to invoke a nefarious no-fly zone over Libya to “protect civilians,” the United States, U.K., France, and others began a bombing campaign on March 19 — in actuality, of course, that protection was of the central bank monopoly and, in particular, France’s financial interests in the historically French-colonial region.

    “We are doing it to protect the civilian population from the murderous madness of a regime that in killing its own people has lost all legitimacy,” railed French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who played a key role in Gaddafi’s fated demise.


      Oct 23, 2017 23:01 AM

      Found at………..sinclair site………

    Oct 23, 2017 23:18 AM

    Cory & Team,
    Very good interview. Question, when he says ‘put the stocks in a drawer for 3 years’ does he mean majors / producers ? I’m not sue I have the nerve to do that with the juniors I hold, as I like to take profits from Juniors when I can.
    Your thoughts ?

    Oct 23, 2017 23:34 AM

    321 gold…….

    321gold HOME
    Home Links Editorials
    Silver Stocks Comatose

    Adam Hamilton
    Oct 20, 2017

    The silver miners’ stocks have mostly drifted sideways this year, looking vexingly comatose. Such dull price action repels speculators and investors, so they’ve largely abandoned this lackluster sector. That weak trader participation has led to silver stocks’ responsiveness to silver price moves decaying. What can shock silver stocks out of their zombified stupor? And how soon is such an awakening catalyst likely?

    Silver stocks’ flatlined behavior so far in 2017 is surprising and odd. Silver-stock prices are ultimately driven by silver-mining profits, which are overwhelmingly driven by prevailing silver price levels. Silver in turn is slaved to gold’s fortunes, the yellow metal is the white metal’s dominant primary driver. With gold faring quite well this year despite the euphoric record stock markets, silver and its miners’ stocks should be shining.

    Since silver is a tiny market compared to gold, silver’s moves tend to leverage gold’s. The best global silver and gold supply-and-demand fundamental data available comes from the Silver Institute and World Gold Council respectively. According to them, worldwide silver and gold demand last year ran 1027.8m ounces and 4337.4 metric tons. Along with average prices, these can be used to approximate market sizes.

    Silver and gold averaged $17.12 and $1250 last year. Run these numbers, and 2016’s total global silver and gold markets were worth about $17.6b and $174.3b. This latest-available data shows silver’s market is literally an order of magnitude smaller than gold’s! With silver only enjoying 1/10th the capital flows of gold, silver tends to be far more responsive. Any dollar of buying or selling is 10x more impactful for silver.

    The silver market’s small size is one of this metal’s greatest strengths. Compared to the vastly-larger broader markets, it doesn’t take much new buying to catapult silver dramatically higher. Speculators and investors alike usually get interested in shifting capital into silver when gold is already rallying. Silver then tends to rally much more than gold, leveraging its upside, because silver inflows are relatively larger.

    Given gold’s good performance this year, silver and the stocks of its miners should’ve surged. Year-to-date gold is up 11.3%, well ahead of full-year 2016’s 8.5% gain. But instead of amplifying gold’s 2017 advance by 2x to 3x like usual, silver is only up 6.7% YTD as of this week. This makes for really poor leverage to gold of 0.6x. Last year silver rallied 15.1%, yielding still-weak-but-more-normal 1.8x upside leverage.

    Silver’s serious underperformance relative to gold this year has greatly retarded traders’ interest in the silver miners’ stocks. The leading silver miners’ trading vehicle and sector-index proxy is the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. Because of the great profits leverage to silver inherent in the silver miners, their stocks usually amplify silver’s upside. But YTD SIL is only up 4.0%, for extremely-poor 0.6x leverage!

    Gold stocks aren’t having a great year either, with their leading GDX ETF only up 11.5% YTD compared to gold’s 11.3% gains. Like silver stocks, their gains tend to multiply their underlying metal’s gains by 2x to 3x. But the gold stocks’ weak in-line performance so far in 2017 highlights just how bad silver stocks’ lagging performance is. They have been largely drifting comatose this year, hardly even responding to silver.

    Silver stocks have serious problems, and they certainly aren’t fundamental. Every quarter I analyze the latest operating and financial results from the top silver miners of SIL. They will soon start reporting their new Q3’17 results, but the prior quarter’s are the latest now available. In Q2’17 SIL’s elite top silver miners reported average all-in sustaining costs of $11.66 per ounce, well below average silver prices of $17.18.

    That implies hefty industrywide silver-mining profits of $5.52 per ounce. While the average silver price did slump 2.0% sequentially in Q3 to $16.84, that’s certainly no fundamental threat. Assuming flat mining costs, the silver miners still should’ve been able to earn $5.18 per ouncelast quarter. That’s down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, but is still very profitable. Fundamentals can’t explain silver stocks’ vexing malaise this year.

      Oct 23, 2017 23:35 AM

      sorry…….did not mean to post the entire article……….

        Oct 23, 2017 23:36 AM

        In Q2’17 SIL’s elite top silver miners reported average all-in sustaining costs of $11.66 per ounce, well below average silver prices of $17.18.