A Close Look At The Long Term Gold Chart
Please refer below to the 16 year monthly gold chart that Doc and I discuss. We touch on a number of technical factors and relate the moves back in 2002 and 2003 to the market today.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
You are correct!
Bonzo Barzini for the win !!
Congrats to the Canadian mixed doubles curling team beating the Swiss 10-3 for the gold!
Thanks, Excelsior, my hindsight is 20/20. But back at Christmas 2015 it was Matthew, Moriarity, Savage, and Avi who were pounding the table for gold. They get the win.
If we are talking about comments made back in 2015 then I’d say we were onto the double bottom in Gold at $1045.40 and it’s significance here on the KER long before most were. Back then most commentators expected lower lows in 2016 and some were calling for some pretty dire levels down.
Heck, for the last 2 years there have been endless calls in the marketplace for Gold to rollover and dive down to new lows. Now, in hindsight it has become more obvious to folks that gold bottomed in Dec 2015, but maybe these comments will make an honorable mention:
> On December 10, 2015 at 1:42 pm,
“I mentioned at the beginning of the year it would be important and it did serve as short-term support in the recent past, then gold went down to $1049 or ($1045+ intraday near the $1044.70 target I’ve mentioned since the end of last year). ”
“Now that it rebounded out of that area and has come up into the low $1080’s Gold has drifted back into the low $1070’s. I agree with Peter that $1065 is still a reasonable support level. If those fall then $1044 is back on the menu. If they hold through this FOMC madness, then my best guess is we see a nice rally in both Gold and Oil and most commodities.”
> On December 19, 2015 at 6:07 pm,
“Agreed that the rate hikes will prove positive for Gold, after the impending bottom, because the Fed cannot hike the rates up enough to “normalize” economic condition without making the debt load unable to be serviced. This is the corner the Fed has painted themselves into with ZIRP. They borrowed at next to nothing, and if they raise too much, they’re bankrupt. One of the few options left is to inflate their way out of this, and Gold will get a bid when this realization comes home to roost.”
> On December 21, 2015 at 10:44 am,
” We may have a double bottom if this was a correction in gold:”
• On December 21, 2015 at 1:59 pm,
“Looks like a double bottom to me:”
• On December 21, 2015 at 4:44 pm,
“Could be. I posted in Dec of 2014 and about a dozen times throughout this year that a strong support level target I saw would be $1044.70. Well, gold just bounced at $1045.40, so I was off by $.70. Close enough since I made that call at much higher prices.”
• On December 21, 2015 at 4:58 pm,
“It would be nice if it was a double bottom though. Only time will tell.
> On December 27, 2015 at 6:22 pm,
“Another article suggests that gold will soon do more than merely embark on an intermediate rally – we may have just seen the final low.”
• On December 27, 2015 at 6:32 pm,
“I agree and think that is very possible that the double bottom could be even more than an intermediate rally, and has a chance of being a longer term bottom.”
• On December 28, 2015 at 4:29 am,
“…there is an outside chance that the recent double bottom around $1045.40 could be an intermediate bottom. I had 3 targets since the end of last year and for 2015 …..$1065 (which did present some support), $1044.70 (which currently held for the double bottom), and $993.20 the peak of Feb 20th, 2009. It remains to be seen whether the the $1045.40 level will be tested again.”
> On December 28, 2015 at 8:45 pm,
“The reason I’m mulling this over, is a consideration in a swing trade opportunity as Gold may bounce off the recent double-bottom near $1045.40 and then head up the upper trend-line of the falling wedge ($1142-$1146).”
> On December 28, 2015 at 2:18 pm,
“Doc, do you place any credence on the idea that Gold has double bottomed in the $1045.40 area and may actually rally in the month of January?”
“Historically the beginning of the year Jan/Feb is a strong seasonal period for the PMs.”
• On December 28, 2015 at 7:24 pm,
“Yes, Gabriel, it was actually our discussion yesterday and the Clive Maund article and the great charts you posted that I was referencing.”
“Matthew also posted a good chart a week or two back on the blog highlighting the potential double bottom in Gold. I replied that $1044.70 was a strong support target I had for over a year, and Gold had bounced right off the $1045.40 level (close enough), so that would be a logical place to build a strong layer of support.”
>On January 3, 2016 at 1:00 pm,
“2016 – It’s gonna be HUGE!!!!”
> On January 5, 2016 at 11:16 am,
“The Yen and Gold are buddies and will travel higher together.”
I’ll absolutely give credit to Matthew, Gabriel, Gary Savage, Bob Moriarty and even Clive Maund for their conviction that the bottom was in back in December of 2015. I was personally convinced it was an intermediate bottom (as it clear in the comments above), but personally wanted to see upside resistance levels taken out for confirmation that it was the “major bottom.”
I was very constructive on the rally into 2016, and positioned accordingly, but I had several key peaks and moving averages I wanted to see taken out before feeling the move was confirmed. As we know, those levels all got taken out in that spring of 2016 and that settled it for me personally and I haven’t looked back since then.
Many are still hemming and hawing years later about whether that was the bottom and if gold is still in a bear market. 🙂
A big DITTo on that one……Way ahead of the crowd…
If we are talking about comments made back in 2015 then I’d say we were onto the double bottom in Gold at $1045.40 and it’s significance here on the KER long before most were.
A nice shorter duration chart from Goldfinger:
@Goldfinger – “$Gold breaking above arithmetic downtrend line, over $1340 and I think we can see gold really move:”
Gold is saying: Get ready for upside!
Yahoo Finance – Brian Shannon – February 13, 2018
Doc didn’t mention that growing volume that began in 2016. I’m guessing he considers that significant also…….Good show Gentlemen.
Great point Silverdollar.
Look at that growing volume starting when the rally began in Jan 2016. It has stayed increasing as time went the last 2 years, and shows how much more interest and positioning is going on in the sector since the Dec 2015 major bottom.
Rising gradually with higher lows and nice peaks upward through on huge volume is a much more bullish scenario than if it was the other way around. If the chart had pulled sideways to down for year years into decreasing volume, it would show disinterest…. but that is NOT what we see.
Your comment spoke…… volumes !
Silver, you’re correct—I mentioned that on one of the interviews a couple of weeks ago—that is huge.
Doc, before you swear off all future cruises check out sailmainecoast.com and try a summer or fall foliage cruise on the Steven Taber before flu season starts.
BB, I took it to heart a number of months ago when you mentioned you worked on the Mississippi years ago and recommended the paddle boat cruise. The family is starting to talk and planning to do that in the next year. You also mentioned to take it in reverse from New Orleans up the Mississippi instead of south from Minnesota. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Doc – just please watch out for poison ivy if you decide to wander off the banks.
Last year we were worried about ya and just itching to hear your updates 🙂
Doc, it depends how much time you want to spend on the river. The current is about 8 mph, so it’s a lot faster going downstream. The Mississippi is most beautiful to me in the north as the water is clear before the Ohio merges at Cairo. IL. Then it is muddy down to the Gulf. It is nice to see St. Louis, Memphis, Vicksburg, and Natchez as you pass by. I’ve never been to Maine so I would rather take a windjammer cruise out of Camden.
Doc is a national treasure. thx for sharing
So, Doc, do you mean that we are in a new move up in this bull market in PM’s and we are not likely to move down ti the $1250 level? What is your best prognostication for gold and silver in the near future?
Pardu, it’s possible we may occasionally break on an intermittent basis below the 50 month SMA and EMA but should always close the month above them. That’s worse case scenario in my view. In the near future we move over the next 3-4 months sideways to down.
I am planning on purchasing some more bullion coins as the price lowers a bit, a little at a time. I have heard pros and cons on what king to buy, given past gov’t actions (confiscation etc.), but what kinds of bullion do you recommend and why? I have concentrated in silver eagles, and maple leafs and Morgan dollars AU, gold has been eagles and British sovereigns BU. Is this a good way to go?
Pardu, I’m into numismatics as well. When I buy just for the bullion, I often just buy stock bars or rounds from dealers of which there are innumerable ones. As long as the premiums are reasonable and the bullion content is high I don’t get specific.
Declassified: Comey Had Secret Russia Meeting With Obama Amid “Unmaskings”
“By the book,” eh?
Thanks for the encouragement, Doc. After watching my PM stock holdings bounce around for the past two years, I sure need it. Though I didn’t start buying heavily again starting late summer of last year. If patience pays off, I am due for a fat paycheck.
Hey Ex….did you catch the ipo of dmg blockchain today???heres a plug from wealth research group to boot..https://mailchi.mp/wealthresearchgroup/clear-the-way-my-biggest-stock-position-ever?e=2f29542649
I read about it on ceo.ca but have had a really crazy day. I’ve been down hard with the flu, and like an idiot reheated old food and got food poisoning on top of it so I was out of commission much of the day. Simultaneously my lady went to buy a used Lexus on her own, and the car started leaking oil and caught on fire and started smoking and stalling while driving it, and I there was nothing I could do to assist since I was down for the count. Needless to say, a few things probably slipped by the cracks today for me. 🙁
Thanks for the heads up though.
Here’s that room on ceo for all the latest thoughts, comments, and banter….
$150,000 those cats received to pump DMG. I gotta start myself a newsletter
I obviously am in the wrong business. Nobody every paid me $150,000 to pump a stock. What am I doing wrong?
(PTM) (PLG) Platinum Group Metals Ltd. Completes Step One for US$58M Maseve Mine Sale
@nasdaq on February 14, 2018
(MTO) (MEAOF) Metanor Continues to Hit High-Grades at Barry
January 22, 2018 – Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc
Love the long term charts, it just puts all this short term nonsense into perspective. If you can buy companies that can hang around, run well, with low risk of dilution and a good resource/reserve base you will be fine.
Well said Fundamental Analysis.
Excelsior, do you have any thoughts on Mexus? i am starting to get worried.
I’m part of a private chat where people are discussing all the good things going on with Mexus, and I’m not worried in the slightest. Santa Elena is moving right along and their recoveries on the leach pad are going off as expected and they are producing Gold & Silver.
They just brought on a long time advocate and consultant as the president of their Mexican operations, and just picked up even more land as part of this new subsidiary. They just made more progress on their El Scorpio copper project as well. They’re firing on all cylinders right now, and have put out a few good news releases.
Thank you for your reply, Excelsior Great to hear, My fears might have been exaggerated then. Phew! A sigh of relief.
That private chat. I think I know it :-). I was not allowed to be a member because I refused to kiss mr 8’s ass. He knows his mining but I won’t say a kind word about him. Known and felt his antics for 10 years now. But never mind that horrid ogre. I am happy you are still so positive. Might be our time has finally come. Those recoveries, oh man do I wish they are able to kick-start things with a bang really soon! One never knows but things must be really close to fireworks if what you say is true.
Best wishes for the weekend and many thanks for sharing.
And just because of that, a kick in the b*lls this morning. Sigh. If you get hold of some additional info, feel free to post it if you so desire. Ah, the strain in the chest grows heavier.
Those longer term charts are the reason one should have a bullish bias. The usual naysayers probably did not buy the recent lows even though the opportunity was as clear as could be.
Doc, I appreciate your style of investing very much and would like to learn more about your method. Any guidance would be appreciated. Thank you.
This chart tells me the bull market in gold started in Dec. of 2015 from the bottom of the BB. Gold has risen 30% since then. Hang on to your hats and gold stocks. And silver should do better than gold.