The Most Important Markets And Sectors To Watch
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After a slow week for the markets we are all in for a central bank, trade talk, and data heavy week ahead.
This weekend’s show has a full 2 hours of economic and investing commentary. The first hour we look at major markets and global issues that are driving the financial markets while the second hour is all about resources. And yes, we have a segment focused on Uranium!
I will be on a site visit leaving Monday afternoon so posting will be light until Thursday. Please keep in touch through email by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1: I kick off the show with Axel Merk. Axel shares why he thinks the market is under-pricing upcoming Fed rate hikes and how you can profit from this.
- Segment 2: With tech and small caps continuing to lead the markets Dana Lyons assesses whether these sectors will head higher.
- Segment 3: Did you know that if we measure inflation the same way as in the 90s it would be running at 10%? Jesse Felder explains.
- Segment 4: Chris Martenson wraps up the first hour with a look globally at Europe, Emerging Markets, and China.
- Segment 5: With the second hour focused on resources Jeff Christian details the push and pull factors keeping gold and silver in tight trading ranges.
- Segment 6: Awale Resources had some big sell orders hit the market this week. I chat with the President and CEO Glen Parsons about how the drill program is progressing.
- Segment 7: Byron King shares some companies that are advancing their stories while the markets continues to be slow.
- Segment 8: We wrap up this week’s show with Chris Temple and a focus on the uranium sector.
Exclusive Company News and Updates
Segment 1
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Segment 2
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Segment 3
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Segment 4
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Segment 5
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Segment 6
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Segment 7
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Segment 8
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May as well say 1 Trillion……contract awarded to.. Lock”” in the Profits “Heed Martin…..
MICC..profits to the war machine forever and ever ……
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-08/lockheed-martin-awarded-929-million-contract-hypersonic-weapon-counter-russia-china
Hey Jerry,
Speaking of the MICC what do you thin our good friend McKinney would say about this?
U.S. gives Humvees to Afghan army, then blows them up when they fall into Taliban hands
“The statistics highlight a recurring problem: Taliban fighters have frequently attacked Afghan government outposts throughout the country, capturing weapons and U.S.-supplied equipment, then disappearing into the countryside.”
I’m sure, oh, this is just an outlier…the exception not the rule…nothing to see here folks, just move along now.
Hello EBO…………….
Sorry for the delay , I just got back….
WAR IS A RACKET……..the best quote anyone could say on the subject of MICC….
People really have to be retarded not to see the game……that is my answer.
Of course you need guys like McKinney to add a little respect for the total corruption Rothschild cabal has played on humanity…….McK is just a pawns in the game.
Funny what a uniform does to the mind….A few bars and strips and everyone is a hero.
It was more difficult to see a few years ago, but, everything is available for those
who want the truth…
Hey Jerry, check this out by Daniel McAdams. Very interesting but very disturbing. And it didn’t end on a particularly encouraging note.
https://mises.org/library/daniel-mcadams-whos-funding-war-propaganda
thanks for the heads up………listening right now…………….thanks…..
War cronyism …….silence the fact……
Defense contractors……ton of money made , on technology that does not work.
Produce threats that do not exist. Experts in congress, from the think tanks, with all the same views, always the same,…..making profits.
Experts, on the take. Media, part of the system.
War on Drug……done,……..Russia the new whipping post…….
Media whipping up the cream.
Alternative media, ….danger …..push on independent media
And here’s a retired lieutenant colonel calling for an end to this non-sense that is bankrupting the country. The corrupt MICC pours trillions down the toilets of Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Syria…the list is endless while the infrastructure here falls apart. Hell, despite numerous tax increase supposedly to fix the roads where I live you can’t drive on the roads without damaging your vehicle. Gooberment is the biggest rip-off there is.
William J. Astore on Paving Roads to Nowhere
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2018/06/07/william-j-astore-on-paving-roads-to-nowhere/
But of course the McKinneys of the world would keep this up until the Empire collapses.
Ditto on the RIP OFF GOVT…….
The guy’s quote……….
et at least in the olden days our wars had some sense of closure. Nowadays, America’s leaders talk of “long” war, “generational” war, even “infinite” war, as Tom Engelhardt and Colonel (ret.) Andrew Bacevich note at TomDispatch.com. Infinite war — again, how stupid can we be as a people?
HOW STUPID>>>>>>>real stupid……..
Check out from the 7 min 30 sec mark to the 11:45 mark and Eric Sprott is discussing GGI Garibaldi, NVO Novo Resources (and the larger Pilbara gold rush), and then gets into to EXN Excellon Resources and their dewatering initiatives, very high-grade mine in Mexico, and that they are bringing their cost structure down.
> Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up – 6.8.18
https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-6813
Rick Rule And His Path From A Bar Bouncer To Resource Speculator
by @Keecher on June 6, 2018
> The importance of building a constituency
> The path from Vancouver bar owner to international speculator and investor
> Rick’s early mentors and how he almost ended up as a tax lawyer
> How Rick chooses which teams to back
> The value of working for a madman
> Why Rick personally invests in private placement deals and why he considers this catalytic capital
> Why the lights are going out if the price of uranium doesn’t correct
And much more…
https://ceo.ca/@keecher/rick-rule-and-his-path-from-a-bar-bouncer-to-a-resource-speculator
The Quiet Before the Storm
Gary Wagner – June 8, 2018 #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #Video
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (6/8/2018)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Key Gold & Silver Stocks Look Perky
Morris Hubbartt – Jun 8, 2018
Super Force #PreciousMetals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
(Click on the blue links for the TA videos)
Gold Summer Doldrums 2
Adam Hamilton – Jun 08, 2018
“Early summer is the weakest time of the year seasonally for gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks. With traders’ attention diverted to vacations and summer fun, their precious-metals interest and investment demand wane considerably. Thus this entire sector, and often the markets in general, suffer a seasonal lull this time of year. But these summer doldrums offer the best seasonal buying opportunities of the year.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton060818.html
Silver – Fundamentals (Part 1) & Technical Analysis
By Florian Grummes| June 6th, 2018
https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/silver-technical-analysis-060618
This was a good video from Gwen Preston that gets in to trading the seasonal patterns, news patters, weather patterns in different jurisdictions relative to exploration work and the time results are released into the markets, and also the movements of Jr miners before and after capital raises.
________________________________________________________________________
How To Manage Risk In Mining’s Volatile Markets
The Resource Maven – Jun 4, 2018
“Timing is everything – My comments on how I manage risk in a tremendously volatile market”
Uranium Bull Market Update
boubin2 – (6-9-2018) #VIDEO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6yaWCwcVFs&feature=youtu.be
John Quakes
Retired Earth Sciences Researcher, Professor, Analyst, Writer, Trekker and Explorer. Invested now in the emerging new #Uranium Bull Market.
How Batteries Will Change the Power Business
Lower costs for wind and solar plus advances in battery storage are upending the electricity business.
Jack Hough – June 9, 2018
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-batteries-will-change-the-power-business-1528509035
Thousands protest against Uranium mine in Spain
Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | about 3 hours ago
“Spanish media are reporting that between 3,000 and 5,000 people hailing from different cities in Spain, as well as from Portugal and France, rallied this weekend in Salamanca to express their rejection to a uranium mine being built in the Retortillo municipality.”
“The Salamanca project is Berkeley Energia’s (ASX, LSE: BKY) flagship mine and is located on the Retortillo-Santidad uranium deposit, in the northwestern part of the country. The open-pit mine is expected to produce an average of 4.4 million pounds of uranium per year.”
AusIMM Conference calls on Australian government to embrace Uranium
AusIMM | 2 days ago
“Delegates from the 2018 AusIMM International Uranium Conference have urged state and federal governments to embrace uranium mining and actively discuss nuclear energy, at the 13th annual conference in this series, showcasing Australia’s capability in the sector.
The conference, held on June 5-6 in Adelaide, was attended by 110 industry, government and NGO representatives from around the world and discussed all aspects of the uranium industry and nuclear fuel cycle. Topics included uranium exploration, processing, mining, transport, environment, mine closure and rehabilitation, regulations and the use of uranium in the medical industry and power generation globally.”
http://www.mining.com/web/ausimm-conference-calls-australian-government-embrace-uranium/
Ty Martin @MarTycharts – Jun 6
“$URA Launching pattern is set. This sector appears to be on the cusp of a sustained move higher. #uranium”
Mike Alkin
“Uranium investor, newsletter writer, podcast host, former 20 yr hedge fund analyst/PM- partner at multi $B hedge fund- I distrust mass emotion”
If Renewables Are So Great for the Environment, Why Do They Keep Destroying It?
Michael Shellenberger – May 17, 2018
Justin Trudeau talks technically about Steel Tariffs. 😉
https://twitter.com/secofstate70/status/1004874745354051584?s=21
Billionaire schools teacher in NAFTA talks
Rick Mills | about 22 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/web/billionaire-schools-teacher-nafta-talks/
REALIST NEWS – President Trump’s Speech after G7 meeting – EPIC – We can’t lose
George washington warned us not to allow anyone to be king . serve the people dont make them worship you . love to all Scott
REALIST NEWS – New FBI Docs On Clinton Email Scandal
Something Big Is About To Happen With Gold, And It’s Not What You Think:Jim Willie
It is odd how in the end uranium gate has proved to not be a scandal anymore because uranium investing is dead, insitu leaching has killed the uranium market for investors. All that cash and all The Clinton’s rascality has come to be a finis, bring the bugles out and bury the uranium market. So many investors failed to see how AI has supplanted this segment of mining and will kill off other prospective mining endeavors. DT
It is true that Kazakhstan Insitu miners have really changed the Uraniummarket the last 5-7 years, but that was coupled with a terrible pricing bear market that has taken most of the hard rock miners down for the count. The US insitu miners like Ur-Energy, Penisula Energy, and the division of Energy Fuels that used to be Uranerz are still very low cost, but not as low as spot has been the last 2 years.
Uranium double bottomed in the $17-$18 range from late 2016 through mid 2017, and most of the mining stocks followed suit. We mentioned on here at that time that it was extremely unlikely to ever get that low again, and that like the PMs, even though they weren’t really breaking out, that they were not going to return to those levels.
It is interesting that now promoters and newsletter writers like Marin Katusa and other smaller scale newsletter writers have decided now that this recent Kazakh cut and the IPO of Yellow Cake its the bottom (about a year after the pricing in the spot and the miners actually bottomed). There were already stocks that put in 50-100% rallies, but I get that they want a “catalyst” as to why the Uranium stocks have bottomed. {technically the last round of Kazakh cuts and the shut down of Cameco’s mines and the bankruptcy of Paladin last year were those catalysts, but hey, who’s keeping score?}
It would be like Gold taking off above $1377.50 later this year and people coming out and proclaiming that Gold and the PM miners had “BOTTOMED” now in 2018 (even though the Gold low was clearly in late 2015 and the miners clearly bottomed in Jan 2016).
Oh well, the masses are typically much later to the party and want to be sure that they are sure that they are sure….. before they call the bottom (long after massive gains and multiple swing trade rallies have already played out). Tragic comedy.
DT – to your point, the Insitu Miners will likely lead the charge higher since their economics are generally better and have revenues that start in the $30’s and $40’s all in, versus hardrock miners that most need $50’s+ to be profitable all-in.
Companies like Ur-Energy (URG) (URE) and Energy Fuels (UUUU) (EFR) and Peninsula Energy (PEN.AX) (PENMF) and insitu Uranium developers like Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) and Anflield Energy (AEC) (ANLDF) will have nice upside leverage to rising prices.
I’m still not sure if all the effects from the URA rebalancing have played out though as they are liquidating shares in all those companies, along with many explorers in the Athabasca Basis in Canada, to add in a bunch of unrelated manufacturers, as well as Gold, Base Metals, and Lithium companies (which makes absolutely no sense).
It may be that investors are all bulled up again on Uranium, based on the number of comments & articles all over the internet, and the increase in volumes recently, but I’m still waiting for the rebalance to be finished in July before adding more to the positions I already have in place. Granted, if a bunch of investors get all jacked up on Mountain Dew about a new Uranium bull, then that will provide so much liquidity that the rebalance sales of the Uranium miners out of URA won’t really matter, but that remains to be seen….
It is just eerily reminiscent of the GDXJ rebalancing last year in 2017 and how it dragged so many miners down for a while even while sentiment was improving in early 2017 right before that. Once all this plays through over the next month or 2 though, the investors that are positioning here (or better that started positioning last year when the real bottom was actually playing out when Uranium was down in the $17-$18 level) will be set up for massive gains in a rising tide environment.
Good luck to all in their trading.
Does anybody here know who the hedgeless horseman really is, YUK, YUK! He writes pretty good articles, I wouldn’t want to challenge him in a poker match. DT
The Hedgeless Horseman is a good lad and mate and yes a good writer (especially since English is a second language to him).
Check out the horseman’s blog…..
the masses are typically much later……………the masses never catch on………and will never be in the party……too late and a dollar short………
Agreed about the masses generally being late to the party and a dollar short….
Swiss voters reject campaign to radically alter banking system
John Revill – June 10, 2018
“All of the country’s self-governing cantons also voted against in the poll, which needed a majority from Switzerland’s 26 cantons as well as a simple majority of voters to succeed.”
“Concerns about the potential risks to the Swiss economy by introducing a “vollgeld” or “real money” system appear to have convinced voters to reject the proposals.”
https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1J60C0-OCABS
China signs up to four new units from Russia
08 June 2018 – World Nuclear News
“Russia and China have signed four agreements envisaging the construction of four VVER-1200 units at Xudabao and Tianwan, cooperation in the CFR-600 fast reactor pilot project, and supply of the RITEG (Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator) parts for China’s lunar exploration programme. The signing ceremony was held today in Beijing and attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Russia-to-build-four-VVER1200-units-in-China-08061802.html
Russia to supply advanced safe fuel for Kudankulam nuclear plant
IANS | June 08, 2018
“Alexander Ugryumov, Vice President (R&D) of Rosatom’s fuel arm TVEL, said here that the company hoped to conclude the final agreements for supply of the new fuel with the KNPP builder, the state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL).”
China is hanging by their toe nails………….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-09/china-trouble
Do not chew on your finger nails waiting for China to buy out Vancouver ……
650 Million Chinese middle class might not be middle class much longer…..
The Chinese have lost their cheap labor advantage to AI, they are like most things in life no forward thinking. They are also forced to keep up to the advanced economies by trying to outsmart them with technology, wait till the jobless Chinese Coolies start raising their fists in the air collectively. It won’t be a pretty site for The Mandarins who are desperate to keep their grip on power. Chairman Mao will be watching from the underworld egging them on. Revolution is a part of the recent Chinese past. It will be interesting to see how they start to suppress the lid even more but the genie will not be denied. DT
Good thoughts….
…..I find it interesting that the Chinese govt….is starting to tear down the buildings they just built in the last 8 yrs……Build it and they will come, field of dreamers….
…Note to govt….they are not coming………LOL
Are We Getting Sea Life High on Opioids?
Believe it or not, mussels in Seattle are testing positive for opioids. Mussels are what are known as “filter feeders” since they absorb food from their surrounding environment. The problem that is surfacing is demonstrating the difference between “pollution” and “climate change,” which so many people assume are the same thing. Mussels absorb also all contaminants from their environment into their tissues. Scientists in Seattle used cages to transplant clean mussels from an aquaculture source to 18 urbanized locations around Puget Sound. After a few months, they recovered the mussels from the urban waters and tested them.
In three of the 18 locations they selected, the mussels shockingly tested positive for trace amounts of oxycodone. It seems the mussels are getting high. What is happening is that humans are ingesting opioids and excreting traces of the drugs into the toilet. Those chemicals in turn then end up in wastewater because not all contaminants can be filtered out of wastewater. Then the city ejects the wastewater into Puget Sound and we end up getting the sea life high.
You might want to avoid “fresh” catches around major cities.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/are-we-getting-sea-life-high-on-opioids/
Now that I am on my Hedgeless High Horse, do you know what North Korea is, a country with nuclear weapons but no birds because the people have eaten them all. Guess where Kim will be going while he is in Singapore, you got it McDonalds. The land of salt, fat, and sugar. Our species cares little about people suffering but a lot about corruption and power.
On Leadership & Food:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TdnXLJ3W7UI/UWrIHOA5c-I/AAAAAAAAFn0/d6k7YMjes-U/s1600/kju.jpg
If Kim Jong Un and Trump do actually meet at McDonalds for lunch here is what is expected afterwards:
https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1586087/kim-jong-un-donald-trump.jpg
Maybe, they will give him one of those old……beanie babies from the 90’s……lol
Ex, R.O., I couldn’t agree more!
😉
Kim is a little fat ass, and will fit in fine with his surroundings, American Buddy…..
Donald the McDonald….
Donald the McDonald 3:
http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/grub/2016/02/19/19-donald-trump-mcdonalds.w710.h473.2x.jpg
Donald is going after ……
old job……Maybe, Donald will be the next great weatherman……………lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO8-A396Lt4
Willard Scott……..The first and best………
The Donald is a bonafide weather reporter. See clip at about 3:15 mins into it….
Donald the Weatherman:
🙂
You guys are lucky to have Donald McDonald, we have DOFO, Doug Ford. LOH OO, LOH OO. When his brother ROFO, Rob Ford was around it was always a lot of laughter, the guy should have been a comedian instead of our mayor. ROH OO, ROH OO>https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/doug-fords-pc-government-will-move-on-these-5-promises-quickly/ar-AAypLZY?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp
Scientists develop technique to reduce cost, environmental impact of mining precious metal
Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | about 3 hours ago
Fracking for Copper: BHP & Barrick Chase “Ultimate Prize”
“BHP, Barrick Gold and mining contractor Hatch are all looking at ways to replace mines with grids of wells that pump metal out of the ground, up-ending the industry’s economics”
http://www.globalminingobserver.com/in-situ-leaching-mining-groups-chase-ultimate-prize-196
Copper price: Chinese concentrate imports hit 18-year high
Frik Els | 2 days ago
http://www.mining.com/copper-price-chinese-concentrate-imports-hit-18-year-high/
Russia’s Polyus big step closer to building world’s largest new Gold mine
Frik Els | 3 days ago
http://www.mining.com/russias-polyus-big-step-closer-building-worlds-largest-new-gold-mine/
Cascabel Exploration Update – Continued Growth at Alpala and Aguiñaga
June 6, 2018
“Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc. (CGP) (CTNXF) is pleased to announce the following update on the exploration program at its Cascabel copper-gold porphyry joint venture exploration project in northern Ecuador, in which the Company has a 15% interest financed through to completion of a feasibility study.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/cascabel-exploration-update-continued-growth-at-alpala
Longitudinal trench at Bramaderos Main prospect in Ecuador delivers 615m at 0.52g/t gold and 0.11% copper
May 9, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/longitudinal-trench-at-bramaderos-main-prospect-in
3 stocks to buy for silver price recovery
Investor’s Digest of Canada •6/7/18
“But it is K92 Mining Inc. (TSXV—KNT) which we believe offers the highest growth profile (based on percentage) for near- and medium-term production, cash flow and NAV. Of the companies profiled in this report, KNT is the best positioned to benefit from ‘needle moving’ and NAV-growing exploration upside. While this comes with risk, significant down-side exposure is limited, in our opinion. We are initiating coverage on K92 Mining Inc. with a ‘buy’ recommendation and a $2-per share target price.
K92 Mining Inc. offers an attractive and growing South East Asian (Papua New Guinea) domiciled precious and base metals production base underpinned by significant exploration/development upside.
KNT sources all of its production from one operation, its flagship Kainantu mine. While we see KNT’s near-term production potential as small (about 45,000 ounces of gold equivalent per year estimated in 2018), we view KNT’s land package as highly prospective for new discoveries. Recent drill results reflect this and underpin potential for significant exploration/development upside.
While KNT experienced delays in achieving commercial production in 2017, we see recent exploration success reflected by the discovery of new high-grade mineralization (Kora North deposit) as a potential game changer for KNT. We also see Kainantu’s potential to generate positive near-term cash flow growth as catalyzing investor interest in KNT.
On March 1, KNT updated its resource for the Kora North deposit. The company says the deposit comprises a measured resource of 33,200 tonnes at 10.3 grams of gold per tonne of ore (g/t), along with 31g/t of silver.
The deposit also comprises indicated resources of 103,500 tonnes at 12.7 g/t of gold and 27 g/t of silver.”
https://www.adviceforinvestors.com/news/mining-stocks/3-stocks-to-buy-for-silver-price-recovery/
Your talk with Jesse is right on. Locally, our housing market is nuts. People are putting their houses on the market and achieving bids of $40-50 grand above their already elevated price. Some are finding themselves in trouble because rentals are also tight. Spoke yesterday with an exec. from Petco. He can’t keep entry level people no matter what he pays. Has trouble with HQ in that they aren’t sympathetic to his concerns. In about 3 weeks, we’re putting our house on the market and yes,……….I’m selling myself. A monkey could move a house in this market so don’t need a realtor. Have to time it well though, since our new home won’t be built until 20 August or thereabouts. Don’t want to camp in the forest!
Good show! Thanks.
John Williams has been correct for 10 yrs…….
The Fed has bee a liar since 89………..
bee to been
update on Bitcoin:
$6,709.95 down -12.84%
Most of the Cryptos are down 11-13%+ in sympathy…..
It would seem that a final wash out phase in the cryptos is underway, and that out of this developing sentiment reset, the seeds of the next rally will be born.
Might take out $5000
Yes, the downward plunge may continue.
The $6634 prior low from April 6, 2018 offers first support.
$5878, the trough from Nov 12th should offer good support after that.
Once this sentiment wash plays through there will likely be another rally where people get all geared up again in jubilation.
Truly the madness of crowds….
> Woe to those that convinced their families to go all-in during Thanksgiving weekend in Nov 2017 with follow though from the HODL crowd into Christmas 2017. 😉
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cdn.ceo.ca/1d2m9j7-L8GbE2j_d.jpg
Madness……funny picture………
Crypto Carnage Continues: Bitcoin Plunges Below $7,000 After Korean Exchange Hack
Sun, 06/10/2018
Brace for the World Economy’s Most Important Week of the Year
By Simon Kennedy – June 10, 2018
– Trump meets Kim, Putin meets MBS, U.K. MPs vote on Brexit bill
– Fed to hike, ECB to update bond plan, BOJ to keep stimulating
UK:
https://youtu.be/0zRojnRTW-o
I hope Big Al and family are OK
AL(OWL)……is taking a few days off……..talked to him last week…..
I will say one important thing about Donald Trump, since the end of The Korean War in 1953, 65 years ago, at least Donald McDonald has tried to end The Korean conflict. They always say so have a few other Presidents, no they haven’t. They always ignored this dangerous situation by sticking their heads in the sand. One Ostrich after another. DT
The worst thing to do with any problem in life is to do nothing. DT
Maybe the Brits are starting to take back their country…
Got the bastards on the run!
I think SLV is pretty much doomed at or just above the 100 WMA. Now, it’s quite possible that we get a significant spike above that MA for a week, but I think it will be ultimately reversed quickly. Look for the weekly stochastics to get overbought before such a reversal. Once we top, I think it will be lower into the fall. Don’t think it will be a crash, but more of the same (drifting lower) through September/October. Just a guess based on the weekly MAs and Ichimoku cloud on SLV.
Nothing about SLV suggests that it is doomed…
I think based on the weekly Ichimoku cloud for SLV as well as the sharply downsloping 100 WMA, SLV is more likely to pop here and come back down into this range or just below into September. By that time the 100 WMA will probably be close to crossing below the 100 WMA. Basically, I don’ think we are going to get any sustainable move upwards until late September or October.
100 WMA crossing below the 200 WMA, that is.
AG is making a run for its 100 WMA, just like SLV is. I should probably unload a portion of my position at the 100 WMA and wait for lower prices in the fall (maybe for a move back down into the 6s). It’s had a pretty decent run off the lows.
AG is at the 600 day ema and looks strong…
I think it gets stopped in its tracks at 7.85-8.00 and will head lower into September/October.
Weekly:
http://schrts.co/QBCx3t
after it peaks/touches the 100 WMA, I think AG will head back down, possibly forming a right shoulder in the 5.90 area in the September/October time frame.
The following chart guarantees nothing, but I like it…
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan061018/2.jpg
you are right, it guarantees nothing. Nothing happening in this sector until the fall. Again, silver can pop significantly above the 100 WMA in the short run, but its coming right back down to today’s level by September IMO.
Yes, I am right. With that out of the way, did you know that your fear and everyone’s unthinking confidence in the summer doldrums also guarantees nothing? Yes, I know the record but every now and then the cycles work against the usual seasonal weakness and the odds that that might be happening now are very good.
I’ll say it again, once the 50 WMA crosses below the 100 WMA, and the 100 WMA starts arcing downwards, both of those MAs will eventually cross back below the 200 WMA. It’s true that we could get a bottom before they both negatively cross the 200 WMA, but I think the larger implication is price isn’t going to skyrocket anytime soon. And I do think it’s possible they could spike silver well over the 100 WMA for a week or two, but it is coming back down to today’s level later in the fall. Look at SLV’s weekly Ichimoku cloud.
You can say it as many times as you like, the 50 WMA is already below the 100 WMA.
And what’s your beef with the cloud? It’s bad enough that you have a habit of looking at one indicator in isolation but do yourself a favor and work on getting the right message from what you are seeing.
Btw, what do the indicators below the following chart tell you?
http://schrts.co/nvfZea
The MACD looks positive in the near term. As I said, a tag of the declining 100 WMA is in the cards but I think silver is coming back down to current levels into the fall.
And yes the 50 WMA has already crossed below the 100 WMA. My point is they are both going to cross below the 200 WMA now.
Also, given the length and severity of the bear, I don’t think it us unreasonable at all for the miners and silver to build out a 5 or 6 year base off of the low.
It’s very possible the miners and silver will break significantly below their 200 WMAs for 3-6 months, retest or even drop below the 2016 low, and then quickly recover that dip and never look back.
Trust me, I want you to be right, but I think you are way too optimistic over the next year.
I think the nearly two years of base-building following the 2016 peak has only gone on as long as it has due to the huge gains of that year. The greater the move, the greater the correction (in depth, duration, or both).
Aside from a few months in 2016, SLV has been below $18 for the last four years. For that and other reasons, your 5 or 6 years following the low does not seem reasonable to me.
The Bollinger Bands have never been narrower — not even in 2010, just before silver went vertical. This doesn’t mean we’re in for a repeat, but the potential for a long move up is certainly there…
http://schrts.co/Mk7rMM
Silver as in a confirmed, trending bull market in 2010, with all of the key MAs more or less in beautiful alignment. We have no such set up currently.
I think we are headed lower from where ever and whenever we reach a near term low. BTW, Gary Savage now expects gold to get pummeled after the FOMC announcement. I can’t say I disagree, as the recent action on the weekly chart looks like nothing more than a bear flag. Every single ICL since 2016 has been a “V” shaped recovery. I wouldn’t expect any different this time. Time to bust the lube out.
Gold will probably get hit but “pummeled” is a little dramatic.
Don’t be surprised if silver and the miners diverge bullishly if it does drop.
The 200 dma has also crossed below the 600 dma across the entire PM sector.
Gold’s 200 WMA is also in danger of crossing below the 600 WMA unless it rockets higher from here.
These all suggest years more of basing action ahead of us.
Call it a backtest of a breakout for silver. The backtest is going to come into October/November timeframe.
Good listen too…….at Mises Inst……Jun2 meeting in Ft. Worth……Fed covered and what the heck is going on……
Nice day for Impact Silver today. Of course one day doesn’t make a trend. Matthew and Spanky love the back and forth. Keeps me balanced! : )
IPT could easily tag its declining 100 WMA again. I think it will be sold hard against that MA and will ultimately break down this year.
The 200 WMA is still downtrending in $XAU and $HUI. After all of these years, it hasn’t even managed to flatten out. That’s how much damage was wrought between 2013-2016.
Could be. I am hoping for a bounce first. We shall see.
Thanks for the show. Miss the politics though.