Capitulation Between Gold and Gold Stocks

September 11, 2018

David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me to discuss the capitulation in gold stock compared to the gold price. A potential slingshot move is mentioned but there are some key levels that GDX would have to break though to turn more investors bullish.

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    Sep 11, 2018 11:31 PM

    Commodities priced in gold

    Breaks of .0153 and .0156 would open the possibility for a real move up from the breakout of the multi-year declining wedge price action.

    Sep 11, 2018 11:36 PM

    But commodities (GCC) still look crappy in relation to the S&P500

    Ya just can’t beat the US’s magical perpetual wealth machine 🙂 .

    Tangible? Yawn. We don’t need no-stinking-thing ‘tangible’!

    Sep 11, 2018 11:52 PM

    I’m interested on hearing your thoughts on First Mining Finance and Excellon. Thanks

      Sep 11, 2018 11:18 PM

      Hey Sam,
      The First Mining strategy of collecting optionality deposits by diluting shareholders cannot be successful in a down trending market. I find it best to concentrate on juniors who control large high-margin deposits which will be attractive to majors. While Excellon controls a very high-grade mine in a good jurisdiction, the reserve base is low and I am not convinced the company has solved the water issues at La Platosa. Best of luck

        Sep 11, 2018 11:30 PM

        Thanks David.

        Sep 12, 2018 12:02 AM

        I’d agree on the dilution of shareholders on First Mining Finance and that this will only be a large optionality play in a much higher metals price environment. There are other prospect generator or land bank companies that have projects that are more robust and/or they have a portfolio of Net Smelter Royalties that give them current or future cashflows that are more attractive. Check out Maverix or Metalla or EMX or Golden Valley for better value.

        As for Excellon, they’ve spend over 2 years successfully pumping out the water and now have dry mining conditions as of the middle of 2017 for their much higher grade stopes, and as they move forward they’ll be growing their resources substantially.

        The market was not really rewarding companies for growing their mine life out past 4-5 years anyway, so it made no sense for a company to just keep drilling to infinity and beyond, to get a 10-20 year mine life and burn through tons of capital, if the share price and valuation wasn’t going to move up in sympathy. They played it correctly, by waiting to expand their resources focusing more on reducing costs the last few years.

        As the metals prices improve over the next few years, you’ll see investors shift focus on duration of mining, and then companies will drill to put more ounces on the books. Excellon already knows where the high grade is, and it will be easy to simultaneously do infill and definition drilling, while also doing step out drilling to expand their resources.

        The key with (EXN) (EXLLF)is that they have the highest grade silver mine in Mexico, and thus, will be able to operate moving forward even if Silver prices stay in the teens. They have brought their AISC down from the north of $50 an ounce 3 years ago, and now have targeted to be down to around $10 an ounce by year end.

        Most of the people that have a gripe with Excellon are looking at things from the old lens of 2015 & 2016 and have not kept up with their successful dewatering, their insanely high grade exploration results, or the fact that they’ve reduced their costs by 80%. When the worm turns in the Silver space, they will be set up to generate substantial revenues, and in 2019 will finally be producing free cash flows, and will have a high margin deposit that could be attractive to majors.

        >> Corporate Presentation – Excellon Resources:

    Sep 16, 2018 16:00 PM

    Excellon seems to have solved their water issues , thus the investment by Eric Sprott.

      Sep 16, 2018 16:00 PM

      Evening Tom, I used to follow Excellon very closely. At the time I spent a lot of time talking with management at the various Conferences that I attended.