Currency and Metals Charts – Don’t Fight The Trend!
Chris Kimble, Founder of Kimble Charting Solutions shares some key metals and currency charts that outline key levels that must be broken for a bullish trend to solidify. As Chris points out at the end, you need to focus on sustainable trends and not try to find the trend.
Follow along with the charts below and click here to visit Chris’s site for more valuable charting commentary.
Did I call it? nice gap down in SLV:GLD this morning.
Now, the only thing left is whether the banksters reverse it all the way back to positive or at least back to the cloud (I think this is pretty unlikely but you never know) or just hammer it lower into the close. As of now, the daily chart has broken down. A real pity.
The yen ($XJY) is going to at least close under 89 soon. There is a gap and two black candles from Dec. 18 and 19 that more or less sealed it.
THB, $XJY weekly chart looks like absolute trash. It is forming a huge H&S top with a neckline at 87. On balance, that should be terrible for commodities and metals if it breaks down. Like I have been saying, it apparently doesn’t matter how much money the Fed prints as long as Japan and the ECB print more. The more the BoJ and ECB print, the lower commodities go. It’s beautiful.
The only thing that will provide yen ($XJY) support is the 200 WMA around 89. The metal bulls need that to more or less hold IMO.
But whatever, the banksters will take it wherever they please and then reverse it on a dime.
I suspect that if the gold correction is going to be short and/or mild, metal bulls are going to need the yen to bottom soon IMO. Yen has at least a day or two more selling to clear those black candles on the daily chart. Pray the 200 WMA prevents a breakdown.
Thanks Cory and Chris…….great comments………..jmo
Just adding this since it is about GOLD….and who has the gold…..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-01/us-army-takes-50-tons-gold-syria-alleged-deal-isis
really………
The Syrian state media outlet claimed that ISIS leaders were on-hand to guide the U.S. helicopters to the places where the gold was stashed, “closing a deal by which Washington spared hundreds of the terror organization’s field leaders and experts.”
For anyone following there is no surprise the americans,britian france ,canada support isis.
Probly more I forgot to mention….Israel,Germany
Dont ya luv being part of the “Great Satan”?
Putin has warned us, if we cross his line, he will act and we will not have enough time to repent.
Many will worship the Beast……..
Revelation 13:4
“And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?”
As I said before ……the US, has been highjacked long ago……
Yup, but everyone is a part of it.
The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything ― Albert Einstein
Our hope is China,Russia,Iran and their allies, its not from us.
There just doesnt seem to be enuff people that do anything.
Some, but most people dont care.
Maybe the Christians and Moslems are right, nutin gets better until the son of Mary or Jesus returns.
Strange they dont see their common beliefs.
Well, proves 1 thing, the americans do think gold is valuable.
When we started having social security numbers., by the Act of 1871, …..people should have been smart enough to figure out the numbers …were tying us to the beast…..
People are without excuse…
Romans 1:20-21 King James Version (KJV)
20 For the invisible things of him from the creation of the world are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made, even his eternal power and Godhead; so that they are without excuse:
21 Because that, when they knew God, they glorified him not as God, neither were thankful; but became vain in their imaginations, and their foolish heart was darkened.
I am not relying on any Chinese , Russian or Iranian…..unless they have received Jesus as their savor ….Then they might have a clue……More Chinese are turning to Christianity, so, maybe there is a start….Russian should have some clues,…..Iranians…..now there is a good question.
1 Thessalonians 4:13-18 King James Version (KJV)
13 But I would not have you to be ignorant, brethren, concerning them which are asleep, that ye sorrow not, even as others which have no hope.
14 For if we believe that Jesus died and rose again, even so them also which sleep in Jesus will God bring with him.
15 For this we say unto you by the word of the Lord, that we which are alive and remain unto the coming of the Lord shall not prevent them which are asleep.
16 For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first:
17 Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord.
18 Wherefore comfort one another with these words.
Hey…..sorry for the preaching…..could not help myself……
I dont believe the reason China,Russia and Iran and their allies are our hope has anything to do with religion.
Simply, they are the only people that have a chance to stop us from our evil ways.
We luv monsanto, luv to poison our food supply, kill the insects, Russia, refuses monsanto and figures they will be able to feed the entire world.
Thats a big dif. in philosophies.
We threaten murder invade starve, China wants to do business, our hope is east.
Maybe it has to do with a gold standard? lol
Well, Im sure it will all work out in the end.
I dont mind the preaching, I learn things.
You mention ya gotta believe Jesus died and got up from dead.
Thats where Im dif, I like the stuff Jesus talked about, but I dont think he was crucified, I think he went to India, I think the guy that was crucified was attempting to fulfill a prophecy.
Chinese want to steal business from west……communistic idea, give me what you have and fall in line……lol
Jesus could have very well gone to China…..in a flash so to speak….do not quote me on that one…..
There is a lot we do not know…..we will know in part…
1 Corinthians 13:9-12 King James Version (KJV)
9 For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
10 But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall be done away.
Could have gone to India…..also…..
Romans 2:11-16 King James Version (KJV)
11 For there is no respect of persons with God.
Romans 3:23 King James Version (KJV)
23 For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;
Steel ur competitors business is capitalist, I always did everything I could to take my competitions customers.;-)
No comment…….but, a point well taken……
When people refer to this section….
Sorry, for not adding this earlier……
4 And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:
5 And that he was seen of Cephas, then of the twelve:
6 After that, he was seen of above five hundred brethren at once; of whom the greater part remain unto this present, but some are fallen asleep.
1 Corinthians 15
Great charts from Chris. I agree the dollar is weakening. Silver/Gold ratio chart is also almost exactly inverse of the dollar. Gold/Silver ratio has been above 80 for a long time which in the past has been indicative of a pending reversal. Seems to me we have two weeks at the most for this to continue before a break one way or the other and I am voting for a reversal.
OK I know I am probably jinxing the miners with this one, but I must admit, GDX has held up extremely well vs the Dow.
You can see this on GDX:$INDU. On that chart, the 50 and 100 dma have both positively crossed above the 200 dma. I would like to see the 200 dma hold now. TBH I can’t envision anything but a very large leg up if that MA is tagged. FWIW, price is testing the lower border of the cloud from above today. I think we can go a bit lower though to tag the 200 dma and not really hurt the bullish structure.
$HUI:GDX ratio daily chart so far today is looking pretty darn bullish. The daily chart is set up to rally. Whether it follows through is a different question.
My portfolio has barely moved down with the correction in gold which is what I had hoped would happen. My silver miners are flat despite the large dump in silver this morning. Still time for them to tank into the close, but if anything they seem to be strengthening since the open.
Absolutely no rhyme or reason to anything, You can’t trade them, simple as.
AXU has held up ridiculously well given the hammering silver is taking. But it could drop 20% into the close for all I know. Complete casino.
There is rhyme and reason to this action and it is bullish. Such market action foreshadows lows in the metals and is not unusual. The questions are, is the market correct and, if so, what “kind” of low is it foreshadowing?
You can’t trust the miners. Especially silver miners. They can drop 20% in a few days.
I assume silver will hit its 20 WMA next week. If it doesn’t bottom in the next 2 weeks and rocket back up, it’s in trouble for most of the rest of the year IMO.
Heaven forbid we don’t make a low for another 8 weeks and you can probably kiss seeing new highs in silver goodbye until the second half 2019 under the bullish scenario.
This action is healthily resetting sentiment. After the first leg up in 2016, silver dropped 8%. The drop so far this time is 5.5%.
After that 8% drop in 2016, silver gained 22% and then fell 12%. The final rise from there was 31%.
http://schrts.co/frVafRRb
It’s also destroying silver’s chances in the near term.
This drop would need to be similar to the May 2016 drop in silver, which was large and tagged the 20 WMA before a massive rebound to new highs. I just don’t see that happening this time. Instead, I think we will get a rebound off of the 20 WMA, but it will likely just be the right shoulder of a H&S top. I hope I am wrong and you are right. By far the biggest factor in my outlook is SLV’s weekly Ichimoku cloud. Could price bust through a flat topped cloud? It’s certainly possible, but it is not something that can be predicted at all and is rare–not something you can bet on all. Just the opposite. Below the cloud, you should short any strength. I can’t reiterate enough though, I hope I am wrong. That is just how I see it.
the weekly Ichimoku cloud is a huge deal across the sector. GLD and GDX have cleared there’s, but they could be going sideways to down for the next 8 months along with silver and still be above their clouds.
I agree that it will test the 20 WMA.
http://schrts.co/ZuqgtRih
SLV’s weekly candle is looking pretty hideous atm. It’s performed like trash.
If SLV doesn’t close at or above its 50 WMA at $14.54, it will be absolutely pathetic.
Anyway, at this point, SLV will tag its declining 200 dma today or maybe early next week. I would expect a bounce. That bounce should build a right shoulder to a nice head and shoulders top on the daily chart. If the neckline gets broken, silver will probably retest the low. Can’t imagine that will work out very well in the long run. What a POS.
At this point, SLV is almost certainly going to tag the 20 WMA, probably next week.
If it doesn’t rebound like a MOFO and make it back over 14.90 by the week of March 18, the summer and fall are going to be an absolute slog IMO. And that is the bullish scenario.
If anything can rebound like a MOFO, it’s a Piece Of Silver!
I hate to say it, but cycles makes a large rebound to new highs extremely unlikely.
the downside of an IC is usually at least 4-6 weeks. And as we discussed yesterday, can be as long as 8 or 9 weeks. Of course, it will have a week or two of sideways to up action, but at this point all you can do is pray. And to be perfectly honest, 2019 is looking like toast, at least out to the fall across the commodity sector. And its possible GCC breaks to new lows and begins another large leg down. I wouldn’t doubt anything at this point. Powell is having an absolute hoot!
On the other hand, the biggest moves happen when the fewest are positioned for them — and that’s just what we need to plow through 5-6 year resistance.
I dunno. I think you are dreaming. This isn’t 2000, 2008 or even 2016. Everyone knows exactly what the stakes are and have been. The Central Banks really are still in control. After the last FOMC, gold should have gone up $1000 as far as I am concerned . I mean WTF, powell just a few months prior was talking about continued hikes and balance sheet runoff on autopilot. Instead we got utter capitulation and a 180 on his stance, all because the stock market was dropping. Commodities should gave spiked massively higher. Instead they are actually lower today. That is downright sad. Whatever, all I can do at this point is just hold and wait and see what happens.
silver miners starting to catch down now.
On this topic, I am not worried in the least about the central bankers. They will never lose control because they never had it. They do have a huge influence at times but they won’t lose that, either.
The weekly SLV:GLD candle is a huge bearish engulfing candle currently. There will absolutely be follow through to the downside in the coming weeks. March and possibly April are going to be complete duds.
Silver’s weekly Ichimoku is starting to look very ominous indeed. There is a very real chance that the recent high won’t be recovered until the second half of the year.
Morris Hubbard has USAS buy signal on the 60-minute chart.
That darn road runner! About to slap a hole smack-dab in the middle of the yellow brick road!
Copper, still strong…
silver could be hitting its 20 WMA just one week after its peak. That is absolutely pathetic and ominous.
Add to that the fact that the commercial short position is sky high and that we;ve only had 1 week of selling. Wow. Just wow.
I have to say, I did say GCC could drag silver down, and it most certainly has, Silver won’t go anywhere–not without GCC. GCC is not looking so hot either, even now. GCC still has a big fat black candle near the lows too. Heaven forbid it finally breaks below its 2016 low. Absolutely hilarious.
GCC down hard today. Bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. Kiss commodities bye bye IMO. Will we see a triple bottom? If GCC starts a new leg down after the epic, historical pummeling it has already been through since 2011, it will be absolutely insane IMO. It hasn’t even had a decent countertrend rally since then to keep shorts honest. One way ticket to hell it’s been.
Powell get his cake and eats it too.
So much for a mild correction.
I have to say, even though I knew today could be brutal for silver, I was absolutely not predicting this beat down. To think that we could be subjected to 8 more weeks of this. Fun times.
Silver looks like it could go below $14, if it doesnt stop at about $13.25 it looks like it could go below $10.
Well, gold’s IC is going to end up being strongly right translated. So no way in hell it makes a new low this spring. And TBH, thinking logically about it, silver would have no business making a new low either. Also, the fact that its weekly BBs are spread so wide suggest that the 20 WMA should act as a magnet for now, which means even a large drop below the 20 WMA should be recovered quickly.
It’s just potentially disappointing action as we will have to wait until later in 2019 before a real breakout. We’ll see.
Silver does look tempting……..
Back up the truck , if it hits $10…..
If funny how such silly calls always pop up on a down day. That’s because they’re not based on anything rational and the urge to extrapolate is powerful.
I am going to operate on the premise that SLV isn’t going to get near its low this cycle. So I agree with you that a $10 call is a bit too extreme. But the $13’s are certainly doable. Furthermore, looking at the broader commodity complex, it looks dead for at least the first half of this year, which means silver likely will be too. Not the end of the world just extremely disappointing.
The 13.80s-90s for SLV (just under $15 silver) contains a huge gap and would give silver the same 8% decline that we saw at this point in 2016…
http://schrts.co/GxNCQQhu
Im not “calling” $10 silver, it the charts, let them speak 4 themselves, if $13.25(about) doesnt hold, there doesnt look like much resistance below that.
until about $10.
I have no idea where or if it stops falling.
But we do have a ways to go for the doldrums, and I would think we go down until then.
pdac curse comin 2, a fun march.
Ok, you’re not calling for $10 but you never mention it on up days. Kinda like your $400 gold talk.
The are speaking alright and neither of those are going to happen.
No PDAC curse this year. The curse refers to the miners falling apart immediately following PDAC. It’s more likely to be a PDAC blessing this year.
-The *charts* are speaking…
Of course I dont mention low prices on up days, on up days its to the moon.;-)
That “to the moon” BS is a straw man uttered only by those who’ve been consistently too bearish in an attempt to take the heat off their bad calls.
Nothing about today has been unusual or cause for a change to my outlook for the sector this year.
at $15.25……very possible to see $14 ish again…….
Gold below $1300
Doc is looking more like he has got it figured.
Fulp would agree I think, best time to buy every year is during the doldrums.
Platinum holding up well……….jmo
Jerry, I think platinum put in a very long term low in August.
Thanks…….Matthew….certainly looks like to me also.
This is the first time since November that GLD has gone below its 50 day MA and lower Bollinger band:
http://schrts.co/dGNfhjXG
It’s possible gold works its way down to the 200 dma in the next month. Wonder where silver will be if that happens. Probably at new bear market lows.
The fact hat silver has basically hit its 20 WMA one week after peaking is disturbing. The reason is we know we probably have weeks more to work lower and there is no support under the 20 WMA at all. That means that at BEST silver will meander around the 20 WMA for quite some time and the weekly BBs will have to start narrowing in again. That means the upside into the summer is extremely limited until those bands narrow in.
worst case–look at the commercial short position. It is huge, and silver barely went anywhere on this move up. A cynic could say they are positioned for new bear market lows.
GLD hasn’t even retraced 38.2% of the move since November, let alone August…
http://schrts.co/cdKswbdY
Its not gold I am worried about. It’s silver. Anyway the damage is done. If I had to make a bet today it would be that silver won’t take out last week’s high until the second half of 2019. anything better than that will truly be a surprise to me. And I will admit, I do not expect SLV to make a new low this cycle. I mean that would be truly something else.
Well it ultimately should be gold that you’re worried about. Silver goes where it goes and always provides leverage to it.
My concerns have more to do with impatience than anything. I have been saying the silver miners would have a tough time breaking through cloud resistance until May/April, and that looks like it is play now. Additionally, I am flat worn out at this point. I am swinging big, but my arms are about to fall off now.
The mid-January correction looks like an island reversal pattern. Maybe it goes down to fill that gap?
The GLD weekly chart looks real bad..
I won’t be surprised if gold hits the 200 DMA Monday. (not kidding)
The weekly chart looks like a full blown route is underway.
Commodities still look pretty good.
The yen is getting creamed today. Commodities too.
Powell is beaming.
Cycles suggest a potentially large window of time before a low is struck. Anywhere from 3-8 weeks from now. Fun stuff.
That’s more like it. AXU down 7% and plenty of more time until the close. Let’s see if we can hit 10%+ or more. Love this bullish diver…. oh wait.
OK, one positive point before I leave. And trust me, I wouldn’t bank on it. So FWIW.
SLV’s 5 week RSI should be hitting oversold next week assuming there is some follow through selling (who would be crazy enough to think that?). So we very well could be close in time to a low of some signficance.
I think it’s also positive that my juniors are up 2.4% today despite my new buying of HL and ASM (which obviously went much lower than my initial purchases and are down significantly today).
Matthew – Just wondering if IPT is anywhere close to it’s lower fork support. It seems by the pattern that it must be close. At least that is what it looks like for ISVLF
I’m not sure which fork that would be but it found support at the 200 day MA:
http://schrts.co/BTfzzgIB
This one shows support around .31:
http://schrts.co/dVHyvZkA
ISVLF:
http://schrts.co/SchnQGVH
ISVLF:GDX…
http://schrts.co/PKkCuHkS
I am not sure if this makes sense, but I drew one from the low in December to the high in early January to the Low in late January. The low yesterday was right on the lower support which is fairly close to the 200 day as you said.
Mine was on the daily and using ISVLF. I see yours on the weekly and much bigger prospective. I was just trying to guage where it might stop going down and making one more run up at least to double top.
This is it:
http://schrts.co/UuQfCicy
Notice the symmetry (it went below support by about the same amount that it recently went above resistance).
It will be interesting to see what happens next week
Dang, gold down over $21 today. I feel like that guy getting punched in the face that Cory posted.
That guy has to have a busted nose.
HL could very well hit the $1.70 target I was predicting. It’s a buy there IMO based on the LT chart.
Yep, no two ways about it, gold tanked today! Near term chart damage and sentiment has been inflicted.
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