Trade War Escalation Shift Money To Risk Off Assets

May 13, 2019

We start another week discussing the trade war between the US and China. Tensions are ramping up again and the markets are selling off, with US markets down over 2% across the board. Money is flowing into risk off assets such as treasuries and gold.

Chris Temple and I discuss what this all means for the markets and the economies of each country. There are a lot of comments regarding which country can outlast the other and if China is really dumping US dollars.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more market and economic commentary.

    May 13, 2019 13:25 AM

    PM stocks not buying this pop in gold. Gold/silver ratio over 88, so stress is out there somewhere……….

      May 13, 2019 13:31 AM

      Very unfortunate. Silver also looks dead in the water.

    May 13, 2019 13:39 AM

    GDX is up 5.74% versus SPY so far…

      May 13, 2019 13:41 PM

      Thanks Matthew for that comparison but I sure still do not fell good about being down in GDX.

    May 13, 2019 13:43 AM

    I just got an update that the dow dropped 700 pts.
    Gold trying to beat resistance at $1300 but bitcoin sure spiked, gold up $20 bitcoin up what? couple thousand.

    I wonder if that isnt saying something.

      May 13, 2019 13:13 AM

      It’s Chinese folks with their money trying to get out of Dodge…er, China…while they can.

    May 13, 2019 13:02 AM

    Treasury Metal’s Weebigee Project Is Reporting High-Grade Gold Discovery; Drills 8 M Of 34.5 G/T Gold And 10.33 M Of 10.92 G/T Gold In Two Holes At W1 Zone, Sandy Lake, NW Ontario
    CNW Group – Mon May 13, 10:32AM CDT

    May 13, 2019 13:20 AM

    The VIX up only 4.5 pts. or so most of the morning wasn’t indicative of real fear so I expect by the close, loses will be pared back at least by 50%. Rick Ackerman was touting a buy if the S&P reached 2800. It hit 2801 and there were probably a few followers trying to get in early. My SOXS if doing well today………..

    May 13, 2019 13:44 AM

    Hi Matthew, what do you think of IMBBY today? I just bought some@28.07. Got a humongous yield.

      May 13, 2019 13:16 PM

      Hi Bonzo, technically, the main thing it has going for it right now is that it is oversold on both the daily and weekly charts. While it can remain oversold and go lower, the daily chart suggests that at least a short term bounce is near.

      It is also testing a fork support that just might matter. One could buy here and use a daily close (or two) below the support as a stop…

        May 13, 2019 13:34 PM

        Thanks, Matthew. My gut told me to buy and it’s nice to see the fork support. If it keeps falling it could be taken over by another tobacco company like Japan Tobacco or PM.
        It would be nice to sell my mining shares when gold is 5K and silver is $200, and then buy IMBBY and BTI yielding over 10%.

          May 13, 2019 13:26 PM

          5k gold and $200 silver would indeed be nice.

            May 24, 2019 24:40 PM

            No kidding.

    May 13, 2019 13:58 AM

    This day is quick…a few 10 minutes bars short /ES and then short…profitable and good enough for me…the gold and miners has some residual strength on interday charts…..i just do not trust in the sustainability of this initiation pop….But that definitely could be the confirming move or breakout of the intermediate low…or a breif one move lower could lie ahead for the intermediate low to be in better synch with the seasonal low that lies a bit further ahead

      May 13, 2019 13:26 PM

      I don’t yet trust this pop either. Who knows, maybe that’s a good sign.

        May 13, 2019 13:31 PM

        Right exactly…The tough runs run away…But gold could hit 1320 resistance and still fail to put in the seasonal low in a few more months…..That ineffect means that the past intermediate low was early march and this current intermediate cycle has a good 8 plus weeks to run and is left translated failure currently…if price goes over the 1350’s then that(this) WAS the intermediate and seasonal low…

    May 13, 2019 13:19 PM

    Chris Temple,

    China doesn’t have to SELL treasuries. They own mostly short-term US treasuries. They can elect to just let them mature and not roll it over.

    It would seem wiser for TRUMP to form a coalition with allies to force China to change their practices instead of a 1 on 1 duel. How much easier it would be if it was US, Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan all united against China.

    May 13, 2019 13:15 PM

    Trump announced he will meet with Putin and Xi at G20

      May 13, 2019 13:46 PM

      CFS….And so he should , & while he’s at it , tell Pompeo & Bolton to sit down & shut the f88k up.

    May 13, 2019 13:28 PM
    May 13, 2019 13:17 PM

    This comment was posted below the following article over at Zero Hedge.
    Judy Shelton , Trumps next Fed choice …By someone with the handle…Inosent
    5 hours ago

    Well, you can’t expect someone like (((that))) to say:

    “The gold standard might not be a bad idea, but a much better idea is to shut down the federal reserve system, because for one, it is not federal, reserves nothing, and is a scam, not a system. For the other, it is a private banking cartel, owned and controlled by unidentified and unknown people, that operate in complete secrecy, and have zero accountability to the nations they impact with their money system. Additionally, given that 99% of all the choices for, and past FOMC chairs have been culled from a peculiar tribe that identify with ‘j3w’, and that the FRS was originally created by ‘j3ws’, who were the ones who drafted the legislation and told CONgress to sign off on it as written – or else -, it is likely the entire system is ‘j3w’ owned, controlled and operated. Now, to some people, they might say what is the problem? Well, when you take the time to study the ‘j3w’ literature, specifically their talmud and kabbalah, even a cursory glance, we find a number of alarming and disturbing axioms, images, and underlying premises. The most conspicuous and glaring part of the text is whereas ‘lucifer’ is typically associated with some sinister being, devoted wholly to an evil cause, or at the very least something conceptual to embody evil, in the ‘j3w’ kabbalah we find lucifer expressly deified, as a personage to seek inspiration and guidance from, as if it were the source of ‘light’, but to the rest of the world’s population a false light, as in the proverbial wolf in sheep’s clothing.

    “To further the assertion of a ‘j3w’ controlled operation, one that controls the money supply, we find a curious thing with respect to the political arena. Whereas on every other issue, CONgress is always badly divided, fighting tooth and nail over the smallest details, literally 100% of every legislative initiative that favors the ‘j3w’, and particularly a primary ‘j3w’ cause/agenda, zionism, there is unanimous agreement! Ladies and gentleman, doesn’t that strike you as odd? How is it possible that one tribe of people, of dubious origin, which is an entirely separate matter, end up so lucky, in a world where people of power are generally totally materially oriented, and concerned only for their self-interest and promotion, why would they care so much about this odd tribe of people and their cause? Is it that we have not given (((them))) enough over the last 100 years, 71 in particular? We all know the American people get literally nothing in return for all the support to israel, some would argue quite persuasively America yields a substantial negative return.

    “To underline the absurdity of the unanimous commitment to the ‘j3w’ cause, CONgress in both houses, with similar pending bills, contain language that expressly abrogate the most sacred tenet of the U.S. Constitution – the 1st Amendment freedom of speech, in order that the ‘j3w’ should be insulated from all criticism, and support for ‘j3w’ israel could not be questioned or undermined in anyway, even if it can be shown said support is subversive to the best interests of the nation.

    “One would argue that power seeking materialistic politicians looking out for #1 could have the only motivation to ‘support’ the curtailment of the first amendment out of fear of being slandered or defamed or exposed in media controlled by the ‘j3w’, and/or a total loss of financial support, because the ‘j3w’ controls the nation’s money supply, and wields immense power to dictate who gets what and when.

    “Whether or not, in this age of ‘investigations’ CONgress will actually investigate this matter to determine the precise national security threat of a foreign power operating right under our nose, using the power we unwisely gave them in 1913, which by now has mushroomed into control of media – it is commonly known that the 6 major corporations that control 95% of so-called main stream media are all ‘j3w’ owned -, and so many other things, where financing comes easy for the ‘j3w’ and their enterprises, given the ‘j3w’ controls the supply of money, is unknown.

    “But based on the facts in hand, I believe the best thing to do is shut down and end this secretive monopoly banking cartel. America must have a far greater level of transparency with respect to who is pulling the levers in the ost sensitive aspect that touches all of our lives in a very profound way. We all know that secrecy leads to fraud, and the fruit of the fraud is quite clear by now for all to see. If I am accepted for leadership as FOMC chair, I will devote my time to winding down the current system, and once it is dead and gone will vacate my post.”


      May 13, 2019 13:39 PM

      There are some very good comments below this article , people should take the time to read them….IMO.

    May 13, 2019 13:19 PM

    Hate to say it guys.. but the millennials and the sheeple have spoken,, today they chose worthless crypto over gold.. and I fear this trend will continue.

    May 13, 2019 13:34 PM

    is it setting up for first assets deflate?…then the sytem unleashes hyperinflation into a gold backed currency

    May 13, 2019 13:02 PM
    May 13, 2019 13:34 PM

    Barr assigns US attorney in Connecticut to look into government surveillance involving Trump campaign: source

    May 13, 2019 13:52 PM

    Nancy doing a great job? Tucker: Homelessness has no obvious solution
    May. 13, 2019 – 6:33 –

    ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight’ investigates the nation’s homeless crisis and the decay of American cities.