Charts That Interest Us – Gold Monthly, GDX, Dow and Dow:Gold Ratio

May 16, 2019

Doc is with us today to outline some of the key charts he is watching as a metals investor. It’s all about the long term charts and the fact that a sideways market for gold is positive but it will take some time for a major breakout.

    May 16, 2019 16:52 AM

    Doc if GDX test 19-20 range over next few months where do you see a possible upside target this time next year in 2020. Also will silver out perform gold next year??

    May 16, 2019 16:03 PM

    Sideways action is not necessarily bullish. See $gold from 1993-1997. Went sideways to up the entire time and ended up breaking down into the final low in 1999.

    There isn’t a fundamental thesis for gold any more. They’ve all been debunked over the last 8 years. QE good for gold? Nope. QT and rate increases good for gold? Nope. End of QT and rate tightening good for gold? Nope. Global QE good for gold? Nope. Rising stock market hood for gold? Nope.

    At this point, I think the Fed could restart QE bigger than ever and gold would probably go down under the right circumstances (see 2013 for example). As long as yen stays weak, nothing else seems to matter. The correlation between yen and gold is tighter than ever.

      May 16, 2019 16:05 PM

      Good summary……….JMO……..

      May 16, 2019 16:30 PM

      As long as the price of physical gold and silver is determined by paper markets unbacked by physical and unregulated by the government, the price of physical gold remains rigged, fraudulent and criminal.

      May 16, 2019 16:30 PM

      I don’t think gold is a long term investment, its an anti thesis to western fiat concept and not to mention – its under constant manipulation by bullion banks.
      But, what I have learned – buy for short term trading when its taken to woodshed. Bob Moriarty has been dead right about this. When DSI falls under 10, its a pretty good indicator there’s going to be a tradeable bounce.

        May 17, 2019 17:32 PM

        Good comment Cali Joe.

          May 17, 2019 17:16 PM

          Someone might look at a long term chart……..from 1970 to date….. πŸ™‚
          $35 to $1277……not to bad……. πŸ™‚

    May 16, 2019 16:16 PM

    Trump looking very tired on Immigration.

      May 16, 2019 16:48 PM

      Never going to be solved…….with congress…..and bitch peolsi …..that is evident.

        May 16, 2019 16:04 PM

        Dreamers can keep dreaming…..

          May 16, 2019 16:26 PM

          Country should go back to the Indians.

            May 16, 2019 16:29 PM

            Yep……..I use to think differently, but, the white man put it to the Indians big time.

            May 16, 2019 16:32 PM

            Indians should have just ran the Pilgrims off, as soon as they landed.
            But, they had all those Wampum beads to get rid of…..LOL

    May 16, 2019 16:17 PM

    FWIW, the $gold:$XJY ratio has been narrowing in for 7 years. If you look at the weekly chart, the long term bollinger bands, for example (100,2) or (200,2), are the narrowest they have been since at least 40 years. Obviously this can’t persist forever. Admittedly you would think that such a huge symmetrical pennant (7 years and counting) after a massive rise between 2000 and 2012 is a continuation pattern. But we obviously haven’t broken out one way or the other yet.

    May 16, 2019 16:34 PM

    Miners are not moving. GDXJ has been rejected by the 20 day MA like 50 times. I am playing JDST, JNUG, and JNUG options with no movement. Pretty bad when 3x isn’t budging. I’m playing crypto now for more action.

      May 16, 2019 16:23 PM

      They’re moving…. just in the wrong direction.

    May 16, 2019 16:51 PM

    A turn of some kind is likely coming very soon…

    My silver juniors are holding up very well today considering silver’s action.

      May 16, 2019 16:17 PM

      Look at SILJ. It has been decimated and is already well below the low you saw as a key low vs GDX a few months ago.

      My AXU has held up well, so far, but others like EXK have been smashed into oblivion. And I have zero doubt that AXU can catch down in a heart beat, and likely will if silver continues to break down. -20 to -30% in a week wouldn’t shock me.

        May 16, 2019 16:22 PM

        Actually, I spoke too soon. AXU closed down 5.5% and it looks like it is rolling over. Giant H&S top being formed that projects down to 60 cents once the neckline is broken.

        The action across the silver sector is heinous.

          May 16, 2019 16:32 PM

          IMO EXK will surpass its 2016 high in next wave but I have a feeling, it will go down under $1.50

            May 16, 2019 16:40 PM

            I’ve been riding the slope of hope for 3 years.

            Should have bailed on it all as soon as GDX lost cloud support on the daily chart a few weeks ago. That was a massive signal to get the hell out of dodge.

            May 16, 2019 16:46 PM

            Based on the H&S in SILJ, it is headed to 6.50-6.75 eventually. Just ugly.

            May 16, 2019 16:49 PM

            I have a feeling, metals and miners are taken to the woodshed. We will see..
            I’m keeping my powder dry for that event. I also think it would be one heck of a trading opportunity.

            May 16, 2019 16:56 PM

            $silver’s H&S top projects down to $14.00. Maybe we get a sucker’s bounce for a day or a bear flag between now and then. But I have a feeling it’s going to be more or less straight down.

            May 16, 2019 16:03 PM

            I am holding out hope that $1267 holds, but I am questioning that bigtime now. This week’s candle is likely going to look terrible. It’s already producing a shooting star/topping candle as of today, which augers for more downside next week.

            I may break soon. I wish I just stuck with the US stock indexes like all other other sheep. I can’t even recognize a bear market when it has been staring me in the face for 3 freaking years.

      May 16, 2019 16:36 PM

      What’s “very soon.” And what do you consider a “turn”? Another bear flag? Would that be a turn?

      There is absolutely nothing positive technically on any metal or mining chart. The only thing is they are oversold. The problem is, they are in a bear market, and therefore hitting oversold is and never will be a buy signal. If anything, shorts may decide to cover a little at some point soon, but I have no faith that it will generate anything more than a bear flag or disappointing sideways action.

      SILJ hit a new multiyear low today. Confirmed bear market.

        May 16, 2019 16:10 PM

        Very soon = days
        I said “some kind” of turn because I don’t know what kind it will be.

        IPT gave up nothing today despite SLV falling 1.44%. Based on the last 12 years, IPT’s action has been much more useful than AXU’s.

          May 16, 2019 16:17 PM

          IPT is currently printing a black candle this week and is hanging over the lower weekly BB, which is beckoning. It’s going to be hammered tomorrow or next week, virtually guaranteed. It has a rendezvous with the weekly BB, without question. It will probably end up riding the band down to retest the low or to finally close its 2016 gap.

    May 16, 2019 16:05 PM

    Here’s a chart for those who think that tariffs are good for the average guy:×1024.jpg

    May 16, 2019 16:34 PM

    If $silver breaks to a new multiyear low, it’s probably headed to $5 in time based on the massive bearish consolidation over the last 4 years. It’s basically an upside down cup and handle. We have finished the handle and all that awaits is breaking the rim of the cup.

    May 16, 2019 16:43 PM

    Here’s a chart for those that have a memory longer than an aardvark.


    And here’s the amount of people that have better ideas about, how to deal with international trade. ___________________________πŸ€”

      May 16, 2019 16:42 PM

      As if you know good ideas when you see them. smh

    May 16, 2019 16:47 PM

    The massive cup and handle breakout in the gold:silver ratio projects to 105. Yikes.

      May 16, 2019 16:20 PM

      I bet it won’t get beyond 93.

      In related news, gold has a P&F chart price objective of $1,950.

        May 16, 2019 16:01 PM

        I pointed out a similar break out in dow:gold in 2017 and it hit its projected target at about $23 last year.

        I see absolutely no reason to doubt such a beautiful breakout from reaching its projected target. these bearish formations in the metals sector have worked basically 100% for the last 8 years. I can’t remember a single one that wasn’t activated or that didn’t meet its projected target.

    May 16, 2019 16:52 PM

    I certainly did not expect for all the corruption in the CFTC, to continue, after the election, so much for wishful thinking….The Trumpster appointed the same con men….should have known. The markets are rigged, and the same riggers are not going anywhere…Nothing has changed.