Do technicals even matter in these fear driven markets?

March 16, 2020

Doc is back with comments on the markets and the metals sector. The metals stocks are getting bought back today which is encouraging. There is a good chance the metals can bounce back when things settle down however it could take some time to get back to the levels we saw just a couple months ago.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:46 AM

    Awhile back, very few trusted MSM and GOV.
    Now, Fear drives folks into the arms of BS !!

    Mar 16, 2020 16:49 AM

    Here is what Gold said…….
    Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:52 AM

    Who is going to buy a new car……..with no where to go………

      Mar 16, 2020 16:08 PM

      Since I am almost quarantined anyway, I ordered some car parts to put on the car I have.

        Mar 16, 2020 16:33 PM

        That’s a good idea; I have a leaky pinion seal that needs fixing.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:54 AM

    Just repeating from a prior post.
    ” My Guys said…We’ve repeatedly warned that it is not a given that precious metals are a “safety asset” in times of trouble. Sometimes, such as this time, it’s quite the opposite.”

      Mar 16, 2020 16:08 AM

      Silver, was a wake up call on that one……….just really shocking….

        Mar 17, 2020 17:22 AM

        However, Silver stocks surged today (many up double-digits), shrugging off the nose dive in Silver.

          Mar 17, 2020 17:23 AM

          That seems instructive of where investors feel the PM trends may head next.

        Mar 17, 2020 17:20 AM

        Gold-Silver ratio at 120 this morning. Has anyone set up an over/under in betting parlors as to 1. What level it hits before silver really is cheap or better still, 2. What level it hits before those clinging to that GSR finally admit it really is no more instructive today than the ratio of axle grease to Cheerios?

          Mar 17, 2020 17:15 AM

          Goes to show….gurus have a less than 50% chance of knowing anything concerning the future in a manipulated market…….NO BODY KNOWS ANYTHING……….in a world of lies…….Faith in this area is ZERO……

            Mar 17, 2020 17:51 AM

            So, with Zero, …..I have capitulated, ……which means…..we are almost at the Lows…in the metal.(silver)………I will continue to use the ratios…….because everyone on the street, uses the ratios…….When you think you know too much……you realize you know very little.
            GOLD is FINE……..and the 99.9% can not afford it, I think the 1%ers do……JMO
            And the world is different this time., and that is a FACT.
            The Stock Market is going lower…….because the selves are getting bare.,
            Financial Manipulating Fed. No Brainers….are going to BANKRUPT MANY.
            I am changing my handle to Ying Yang A go go……. 🙂

            Mar 17, 2020 17:29 AM

            Good point Ying Yang, many cannot afford much of anything right now and those who can are too worried about their nesteggs!

          Mar 17, 2020 17:18 AM

          Mr T – you’ve made that point repeatedly, and personally I don’t put much weight in the Gold:Silver ratio, and haven’t ever used it as timing tool, but at 120 there is a big disconnect in where Silver is being valued, and it is not just because it’s an industrial metal, and it is still much more correlated to Gold historically than it is Copper or Nickel or Aluminum. The ratio being this exaggerated will revert downwards, and while history does’t repeat, it does rhyme.

          Silver is NOT just an industrial metal, because it is still a precious metal (with Silver coins & bars being snatched up at a record pace the last month or so – and investors aren’t doing that to build their own electronics – it’s because it is still a longer term store of value in the inevitable fiat erosion in all nations)

          Admittedly, Silver has not recently received the “Safe Haven” bid like Gold does, but that doesn’t mean Silver is linked to Copper by any stretch. If you had charted Gold to Copper and Silver to Copper up until last week, their performances are similar with both PMs greatly outpeforming Copper.

          Gold has been in a funk the last few weeks and pulling back, and Silver, which is much more speculative and the investors much more fickle has outperformed Gold to the downside. Nothing new there.

          When Gold turns around and heads higher later in the year and moving into next year, it will eventually drag Silver’s sorry butt along with it to the upside.

          It is easy to armchair quarterback the moves in Silver as “industrial” metal weakness for fears of a global slowdown in the immediate past, but if/when Gold takes out it’s 2011 high of $1921 and breaks up above $2,000 then suddenly Silver is going to look pretty damn cheap in comparison, and buyers in China, Thailand, India, Russia, the Middle East, and Europe will be become buyers of Silver once again as a store of value, and the pricing will surge on a percentage basis and start catching up with Gold. When market pundits sit around scratching their heads as that happens, I’ll be sure to remind them, that Silver is a precious metal, not just an industrial metal at regular intervals. 😉

            Mar 17, 2020 17:58 AM

            Generally, I agree with what may come later for silver; but less so because its sorry ass will get dragged along with gold eventually. More so, because — if the Powers that Be manage to arrest this DEFLATION which has hurt silver (gold much less so) and REALLY throw the kitchen sink at all this with both monetary and unprecedented fiscal measures, the resulting “reflation” trade would see gold bring up the rear, as base metals incl. silver get bought. THAT and only that, I.M.O., would finally see silver “catch up”

            Even more than I have warned with gold, it doesn’t matter what gold bugs or silver bugs think of their respective metal(s). What matters is what the other 99.7% of investors think, together with virtually all institutional investors of various categories. And THEY will have nothing to do with silver–and certainly not silver-related equities–until they are convinced the coast is clear and a (preferably modestly inflationary) return to growth is at hand.

            If/when that seems at hand I’ll be advocating buying silver, copper, lithium and other base metal/industrial stocks with both hands; and I’ll LEAD the cheers for them.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:13 AM

            I agree with both those main 2 points:

            1) Yes, a reflation trade, if the Central Banks throw tons of funds at this economic rout to save the markets, it would shift in nature from deflationary to a bit more inflationary, and that would lift the commodity sector and the precious metals, and Silver would start to outperform on a percentage basis.

            2) I also agree that the gold bug echo chamber isn’t who is setting the prices, but rather the momentum investors, hedge funds, family funds, and some larger institutional funds that are trading the trends in GLD & SLV and futures contracts, along with the largest miners and the EFTs like GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ .

            The recent liquidation since late February was those traders leaving the sector, as they simply follow the trends, and yesterday the massive buying in the ETFs was that class of generalist investors repositioning.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:30 AM

            As Bob Hoye likes to point out, the GSR acts like a credit spread, blowing out when the system is stressed.
            The ratio is also a price with plenty of history so I do not understand your aversion to it.
            It hit 140 in 1933 (silver was 25 cents while gold was 35 dollars) which augers well with Hoye’s observation. This is a game of odds and I like the odds that come with buying an asset like silver at an 87 year low, especially when it is massively technically oversold. Yes, it could still get cheaper but the Fed WILL eventually throw the kitchen sink at all this.

            As for your comparison to copper, lithium, etc, silver moves with gold much more than with those items. Which makes sense since only gold is better money with its much larger and more stable above ground supply. Regarding above ground supply, not a single industrial metal comes remotely close to that of silver’s.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:08 AM

            The above report…….may give a few people some encouragement going forward the next 6 yrs………JMO

            Mar 17, 2020 17:18 AM

            Thanks for sharing, Jerry. We have a monster bull market brewing in the miners.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:21 AM

            Matthew……..I think you are correct……IMHO

            Mar 17, 2020 17:30 AM

            One more thing on silver versus gold. I think it would surprise a lot of people to know that even at 12.50, silver is up 50 times since its 1933 price of 25 cents. Gold would be at 1750 if it matched that. In addition, silver hit a major low of 3.50 in 1991 (GSR 105 at the time) and even that represented a 14 fold increase since 1933. Gold was 356 at the time for just a 10 fold increase.

            Up and down, silver has always provided leverage to gold because it is inferior money. I like such natural leverage.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:40 AM

            Great points Matthew, and that is the same concept I was trying to get across to Mr T up above, and your point about the Gold:Silver ratio acting like a credit spread in a stressed financial system is spot on. That is precisely why there will be a mean reversion where Silver catches back up relative to gold, and yes odds with Silver at a 87 year low in comparison to Gold are in one’s favor.

            I’m not sure his aversion to the GSR at totally meaningless either, but it is not the same thing as axel grease to cheerios. Gold and Silver have been money throughout history, are still money now, and to act like Silver is simply an industrial metal only is a huge miscalculation at the point the markets are at. Yes, if the commodities go higher Silver will rise, but it can also rise (and has many many times) without the commodities moving higher to the same degree. Silver is still much more of a precious metal medium to longer term than an industrial metal, and the trends over the next 1-2 years should bare that out.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:48 AM

            Interesting……..thanks……..appreciate the comment….
            Good to keep going back in history,…..jmo

            Mar 17, 2020 17:55 AM

            Bottom line, ratios are useful to look for extreme mismatches, but they are not imminent timing tools. Markets, nature, the world tends to revert to the mean when there are extremes, and that is the primary reason to note the extreme Gold:Silver ratio readings at present.

            The G.S.R. will revert down from these nosebleed levels, and there are 2 ways that can happen. Gold can crash down to meet Silver closer to where it is at (not very likely), or Silver “poor man’s gold” can play catch up to where Gold is at. As evidenced by the new influx of buying in the physical Silver bullion at these levels, it is pretty clear which way this is going to play out, and when the international buyers (who still see Silver as jewelry, coins, bars) increase their buying, and when the larger institutional momo investors flood into Silver for trending trade, it will be Silver that catches up with Gold.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:27 AM

            I dunno, Ex, thanks to Monsanto, he might be right about the axle grease and Cheerios. Both are toxic if consumed.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:29 AM

            Cancer-Causing Chemical Glyphosate Found In Cheerios And Snack Products

            Mar 17, 2020 17:30 AM

            Glyphosate in Cereal: Monsanto’s Weedkiller Detected at Alarming Levels, Report Says

            Mar 17, 2020 17:02 AM

            Ask CT……..if, he is still eating Cheerios……..Axle grease sure makes a good hair wax.. 🙂

            Mar 17, 2020 17:04 AM

            A valid point Matthew & OOTB.

            > I stand corrected and we need to look at both Axle Grease and Cheerios as toxic and develop a ratio accordingly.

            For starters I’m just going to post the Valvoline:General Mills ratio chart:


    Mar 16, 2020 16:56 AM

    Cheers to OOTB. Just went through US customs stopped us 1/2 mile before CAD Cust. They went through my camper and truck big time. 2 Slide camper I had to open EVERYTHING . They were cool and I was happy to comply. CAD side was cool didnt even ask how much rum and wine we had LOL

      Mar 16, 2020 16:01 AM

      Bill,……Glad to hear you made it through……sorry, you had to go through all the BS,..
      That is why , I do no fly anymore……

    Mar 16, 2020 16:58 AM

    I think Doc is spot on concerning metals and FAKE FED PRINTING……….

    Mar 16, 2020 16:58 AM

    The few Gold stocks I have have been crushed. My other corp account only down 6%…so far. Got 70% cash….watching the biggest collapse in HISTORY!!! SHit!

    Mar 16, 2020 16:05 AM

    Did anyone even suggest it might have been time to sell everything?
    2 weeks ago?
    Maybe Bob I forget.

    I wonder how far down silver will get.
    It has bounced from hitting about 11.80
    We could still be getting drops after these bounces.

    The best time to buy may still be the doldrums.

    Interesting times.

      Mar 16, 2020 16:15 AM

      Yes I posted a couple time to sell all. I said gold would likley get sold and the stocks liquidated.
      I said buy JDST to hedge at $10….have a look at it.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:22 AM

    You can not buy phyz…..Note..rounds……at apmex…..$……and delivery April 16…
    This is just JPM……..BS……..

      Mar 16, 2020 16:28 AM

      The Dow..Stock market is going to $17,000 ,WAG.or more… …If, everyone is at home looking at their computer, and not at works…..They will be caught up in the MSN, BS………Look out, this is not looking anywhere close to being civilized…..PANIC IN THE STREET……is on the Way…………..JMO………..

    Mar 16, 2020 16:29 AM

    Inverse s&p, dow etc etf s have been doing well.

    jdst is down 40% at this moment, I dont follow it so maybe up and down 40% is normal?

    I just dont recall anyone saying 2 weeks ago sell gold shares, its always buy buy buy, nibble,nibble,nibble etc
    Selling 100% was the best move.

    Hindsight is great.

    I know 1 person that sold 100% of everything maybe 10 days ago?

    Mar 16, 2020 16:37 AM

    Any shorts put on id cut them loose and stand back imho

    Mar 16, 2020 16:49 AM

    Priced in SPY, GDX is right where it was in November through February…

    Mar 16, 2020 16:49 PM


    Mar 16, 2020 16:15 PM

    Since it appears that things might be going as I expected, maybe I should add to my comments from two days ago regarding the “fractal” analysis. The best way to convey my point is to have you look at that monthly GDX chart again and pretend that it is a daily or maybe an hourly chart spanning months or weeks rather than a monthly chart spanning a decade. By doing this, you can see that the entire pullback/backtest is still impressive but MUCH less so because of the scale of the pullback relative to the entire pattern.
    So, like I said on Saturday, this decade long chart pattern just might be the one “in charge” and this volatility continues to argue for that under the circumstances and since it is much less impressive relative to the whole picture. The quarterly and yearly charts also arue for it since they are no longer sleeping giants.
    In other words, if the exact same pattern and price action were playing out on a smaller scale, none of us would bat an eye. However, if the same decline had occurred differently, i.e., more slowly and with less volatility and more “backing and filling” it would argue for a smaller chart pattern being in charge and would be bearish.
    What impresses us negatively is the percentage decline, not the size relative to the whole pattern. If I’m wrong about that, then the daily and smaller charts would be scaring the heck out of us every day.

    We will know that I am wrong about all this if the miners end up languishing from here on a monthly scale rather than delivering obvious progress.

    Looks like a giant shakeout to me:

      Mar 16, 2020 16:25 PM

      I don’t know why stockcharts is showing a GDX quote that is over $6.00 too low.

        Mar 16, 2020 16:30 PM

        Prolly washed out now?? Not sure but PMs should be a barn burner when things recover…?
        Market devastation is truly amazing…..The Blaine boarder looked like the Apocalypse.

        Mar 16, 2020 16:35 PM

        Stockcharts fixed the quote.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:22 PM

    Good close for gold relative to the conventional market. People are choosing to unload precious metal stocks and ETF selling doesn’t help.

      Mar 17, 2020 17:26 AM

      Doc – most of the larger and more liquid PM stocks were actually up today.

      When looking at the ETFs the #Gold and #Silver miners did great overall today:

      $GDX up 18.37%
      $GDXJ up 20.34%
      $GOEX up 15.46%
      $SIL (the ETF) up 13%
      $SILJ up 11.29%

      People were not unloading today, but rather loading up today. 🙂

    Mar 16, 2020 16:42 PM

    Good listen, guys. Agree that industries are going to be going hat in hand to Uncle Sam. Once again, socialism isn’t bad as long as it’s reputed to be saving the system and at the same time, the stock and bond holders who are primarily the 1%.
    Another thought is that if the majors are smart and have some cash, they better be taking advantage of the prices for Jr. Explorers. These prices are still good for producer’s bottom line so it’s a great place to spend those profits.
    Also, I think this challange to the nation is going to show us just how bad of a medical system we have. Even the health insurance industry will be begging for relief if it turns out as bad as some predict. JMO

      Mar 16, 2020 16:46 PM

      The chicken feed of $1000 per person , is not going to help, return the system to normal., beside, it looks like the senate is not going to do anything till April 3 or 4….

      Mar 16, 2020 16:55 PM

      And the vast majority of businesses get zero help so the multinational globalist capitalism-hating cronies gain market share and taxpayers pay for it in ways beyond the obvious.
      Things would unfold very differently if there were absolutely no bailouts for anyone.

      On top of that, the masses believe there’s a such thing as “too big to fail.” They do not understand how bankruptcy works: assets go to new owners, that’s all, they do not disappear. The process does not cause havoc.

        Mar 16, 2020 16:02 PM

        Like the banks getting bailed out and watching people throw out of their homes into the streets. I watched a few i know and i warned them before it went down..

          Mar 16, 2020 16:05 PM

          Thays why im concervative i guess….no debt lots cash and cash flow and smiling.
          I just warned some foolish friends that if the shtf and it will they will lose their home…its happenimg…I tried…. Cant get fire insurance when its slready on fire

          Mar 16, 2020 16:07 PM

          Exactly. The big banks have no incentive to do right by anyone which is exactly why they, and Wall Street for that matter, hate capitalism. If only the average lefty understood how things work (of course there’d be no leftists at all if they did).

        Mar 17, 2020 17:29 AM

        Agreed Matthew. I’ve never been a fan of bailing out banks or businesses and none of them should be “too big to fail.” Just let the invisible hand of the free markets separate the winners from the losers, and if businesses fail, then the pain hits and you rip off the bandaid, not bail them out so they can die over a decade or two or rob the masses through tax theft and confiscation of hard earned money to bail out business failures.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:44 PM

    Phyz………Gold …….is doing fine…….considering…….Dow Down 3000 pts.

      Mar 16, 2020 16:13 PM

      What an unbelievable situation!

    Mar 16, 2020 16:59 PM

    While it was a rough day in the US General Market indexes, and while Silver and Gold got hit, it was actually a much better day in the miners than we’ve seen lately, especially in the smaller to mid size producers.

    Ironically the Silver miners did better than they have in a while as the metal fell out of bed. That seemed encouraging to me despite all the wailing about the spot prices of the metals.

      Mar 16, 2020 16:00 PM

      Heck – even the Major Gold Producers were up bigly today in the green:

      Symbol – Gold Major Producers – Daily Change %

      GFI Gold Fields Limited +26.78%
      AU AngloGold Ashanti Limited +23.22%
      KGC Kinross Gold Corporation +15.27%
      KL Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. +13.29%
      AUY Yamana Gold Inc. +9.23%
      HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited +6.91%
      GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation +4.21%
      AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited +3.81%
      NEM Newmont Corporation +3.11%

        Mar 16, 2020 16:04 PM

        Symbol – Mid-Tier Gold Producers – Daily Change %

        DRD DRDGOLD Limited +23.44%
        AGI Alamos Gold Inc. +21.55%
        IGO.V Independence Gold Corp. +20.00%
        SMF.TO SEMAFO Inc. +19.17%
        CEE.TO Centamin plc +18.06%
        EQX Equinox Gold Corp. +15.13%
        IAG IAMGOLD Corporation +13.30%
        MUX McEwen Mining Inc. +12.34%
        CG.TO Centerra Gold Inc. +12.07%
        NGD New Gold Inc. +8.48%
        BTG B2Gold Corp. +8.36%
        DNG.TO Dynacor Gold Mines Inc. +7.52%
        SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +6.19%
        EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation +4.87%
        EDV.TO Endeavour Mining Corporation +4.72%
        PVG Pretium Resources Inc. +4.19%
        ASR.TO Alacer Gold Corp. +3.91%
        WGX.AX Westgold Resources Limited +3.82%
        GCM.TO Gran Colombia Gold Corp. +2.87%
        TGZ.TO Teranga Gold Corporation +2.29%
        PNR.AX Pantoro Limited +1.39%

          Mar 16, 2020 16:09 PM

          oops… forgot these Gold producers in the green in that post above as my spreadsheet got wacky.

          SAU.AX Southern Gold Limited +44.44%
          HAV.AX Havilah Resources Limited +15.09%
          F.V Fiore Gold Ltd. +13.04%
          KNT.V K92 Mining Inc. +8.00%
          TMR.TO TMAC Resources Inc. +7.14%
          WDO.TO Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. +2.32%
          GORO Gold Resource Corporation +2.31%
          MTL.L Metals Exploration plc +1.10%

          Mar 16, 2020 16:09 PM

          Bought some Argonaut for $0,8

          Crazy price, but not sure if we have already seen the lows

            Mar 16, 2020 16:41 PM

            Well, good ole Argonaut may not be without a few risks, but you certainly did not overpay for AR at current prices Thomas. 🙂

            Ever upward!

      Mar 16, 2020 16:11 PM

      I believe it is a very good sign that the silver miners did so well while silver and the stock market both did so poorly. Silver won’t stay down for long and silver stock investors know it.

        Mar 16, 2020 16:14 PM

        Agreed Matthew. Silver was down over 11% on the day but you wouldn’t know it by the nice moves higher in the silver producers.

        Symbol – Silver Producers – Daily Change %

        EXN.TO Excellon Resources Inc. +32.53%
        FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +15.56%
        SBR.TO Silver Bear Resources Plc +12.50%
        AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +9.80%
        SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +6.25%
        SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +6.19%
        PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +4.93%
        EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +3.64%
        IPT.V Impact Silver Corp. +3.51%
        SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +3.45%
        CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +2.73%
        GPL Great Panther Mining Limited +1.37%
        USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +0.73%
        HL Hecla Mining Company +0.59%

          Mar 16, 2020 16:29 PM

          Silver Developers and Explorers had a good day despite the underlying metal taking a swan dive.

          Symbol – #Silver #Developers & #Explorers – Daily Change %

          GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +35.71%
          SPD.V Silver Predator Corp. +25.00%
          ISLV International Silver, Inc. +21.43%
          NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +20.00%
          MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +14.67%
          JAX.V Jaxon Mining Inc. +12.50%
          SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +11.11%
          SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +11.11%
          DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +10.81%
          AUMN Golden Minerals Company +8.28%
          AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +6.08%
          SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +5.00%
          AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +2.70%
          UFO.L Alien Metals Limited +2.44%
          SIL.TO SilverCrest Metals Inc. +1.34%

            Mar 16, 2020 16:45 PM

            Cheers for this info Ex its really interesting. Considering silver had its worst day in my living memory, the miners are looking solid. I did say a few days ago that when the miners recover it will improve the underlying strength in PMs (particularly silver). We might have some time to wait for that to eventuate in light of these very uncertain times.

            There is no doubt now, Covid19 is the black swan. Yesterday was one of those days on the markets that will go down in history as truly iconic. There will be more of these days in the near future mind you.Where we end up financially is anyones guess. Worldwide rate cuts and massive cash injections have occurred and the marlets respond like this? Makes you wonder, what will happen once Covid19 passes with all this liquidity and debt that is so cheap???

            Mar 16, 2020 16:27 PM

            Yes, good points Ozibatla regarding the historic market action lately, and Silver’s bludgeoning today. The miners actually held up far better than I was expecting, and many of the Silver and Gold miners had a very positive day all things considered.

            As for what the future holds when Covid 19 passes through, and the liquidity is here, with zero interest rates, and government debt as far as the eye can see…. we really are in uncharted waters, but I believe Gold will stay strong, and eventually Silver will reassert it’s more precious metals qualities as “poor man’s gold” and take some of the talking head talking points about silver being an industrial metal off the front-burner. It is easy to armchair quarterback the moves in Silver as “industrial” metal weakness for fears of a global slowdown in the immediate past, but if/when Gold takes out it’s 2011 high of $1921 and breaks up above $2,000 then suddenly Silver is going to look pretty damn cheap in comparison, and buyers in China, Thailand, India, Russia, the Middle East, and Europe will be become buyers of Silver once again as a store of value, and the pricing will surge on a percentage basis and start catching up with Gold. When market pundits sit around scratching their heads as that happens, I’ll be sure to remind them, that Silver is a precious metal, not just an industrial metal at regular intervals. 😉

    Mar 16, 2020 16:07 PM
      Mar 16, 2020 16:51 PM

      For Ex above, I hope your right. This issue is not going to subside anytime soon. In fact in many cases it is going to get significantly worse before it gets better. If one just looks at the US as an isolated case, the somewhat inferior health system this country has in place means that it is logical to assume that in the interim, covid 19 will spike in the immediate future. Thus, America will be faced with an uphill battle just to retain some semblence of control. With global markets so sensitive to what goes on in the US, this leaves us all with the very real possibility of continued panic and fear lasting for weeks, if not months. The flow on affect into nearly all sectors within markets could well lead us much lower than we can currently anticipate. With constant revisions and deteroriations unfolding before our eyes the world over, it is next to impossible to know how markets are going to react specifically in the coming days and weeks.

        Mar 17, 2020 17:33 AM

        Hi Ozibatla – Yes it very well could be “Lower for Longer” and the Covid 19 or the Oil production/price wars are just the pins that pop the debt bubble and implode the derivative markets. However, panics gets exhausted as does selling and this too shall pass…

        Days like this in the general markets make me think of ole’ Bill Paxton from the film Aliens.

        (adult language)

        Game Over Man, Game Over!

          Mar 17, 2020 17:16 AM

          Yes too right! Hopefully the panic isnt too prolonged but the cynic in me isnt so sure.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:22 AM

            The effects in certain sectors (travel/tourism, airlines/hotels/rental cars, sports franchises, music events, etc… will be hit for this quarter and next), but really the death throws of many companies in the Oil & Gas patch are going to be a bigger problem structurally, as many banks are holding bad debts on companies that’s make a profit at current Oil prices around $30. (at $29 this morning).

            Also, all the closed retail stores and closed business locations due to Covid 19, will impact sales, earnings, and eventually may lead to layoffs, which will only further the current deflationary environment.

            Once the Fed and other central banks print and stimulate to kingdom come, then it will be a tailwind for the PMs and commodity stocks.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:50 PM

    Nice charts from a technican over at ceo:

    @kerfuffle – “Two more charts showing the incredible reversal in the gold stocks today. I can’t remember ever seeing this before. The first one is GDX versus Gold:

    Mar 16, 2020 16:06 PM

    The action today goes with what I said on Saturday (before the Fed announcement):

    On March 14, 2020 at 1:15 pm,
    Matthew says:
    The positive thing about the collapse in the miners is that it was due to a general market panic. So any psychological relief has a higher probability of resulting in a snap-back move like we had in 2008 — and possibly better since the fundamentals are much better now.

      Mar 16, 2020 16:53 PM

      I fully agree. There has and will be tragedy but there will be great opportunity too.
      This chart has gone parabolic and IMHO should run out of power, well, now.$GOLD:$SILVER

        Mar 16, 2020 16:30 PM

        If gold continues to levitate versus silver for a little while longer, it will probably be because stocks continue to plunge. But once the crash phase of this young stock bear is over, I expect gold to fall hard versus silver (and the miners, of course). We’re very close…

          Mar 16, 2020 16:39 PM

          If nothing else, Silver will turn around and start bringing the G:S ratio down by running to the upside much faster than Gold, which may just trade in a range. “Poor man’s Gold” is looking more and more appealing to folks in the East at these levels, and most indications from those tracking physical bullion in the West is that Silver is in very high demand at these levels, so investor interest is picking back up with the depressed prices, and rightly so.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:11 AM

            Yes, silver running to the upside much faster than gold is exactly how I expect gold to fall hard versus silver.
            Silver is massively oversold, even more so versus gold than the dollar.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:10 PM
    Mar 16, 2020 16:29 PM

    DJIA down 2997 points to start the week in a truly remarkable fashion, now down 9380 points, or 32%, since 5 weeks ago when we’d been emphatically warning that a the biggest plunge since 2018 was due, and that it’d likely be far worse than that.
    As ultra-bearish as we were, not even we were expecting this. On the bright side, opportunities abound!
    Silver may not be at the end of its fall yet, and indeed it wouldn’t surprise us to eventually see gold and silver far lower than today’s prices, but our GTI remains “bullish” by the thinnest of margins and we can’t resist buying when the world is selling in panic, as much more often than not it works out exceptionally well.
    We’re buying USLV with a bid up $32.00.
    USLV is the VelocityShares 3X Long Silver ETN
    Unless we can realize significant short-term gains, we’re thinking long-term with this one and if it drops over time we’ll likely add an additional position if it halves in price. This is a strategy meant to realize spectacular gains over time, which may take days, weeks, months or longer.
    If in doubt, always stay out. If you’re skittish, sit back and watch it awhile but don’t chase the price higher. Markets will remain erratic for a long time to come, eventually going lower as we’ve long predicted, and precious metals will not be immune to the chaos as has very much been evidenced recently.
    We’ve stated it many times and can’t repeat it enough: precious metals are not, and have never reliably been a hedge during times of market or socioeconomic turmoil. It is not our intent to hedge against stocks with this idea, rather we’re more likely to see gold and silver rise along with stocks for now.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:11 PM

    Well, not quite Black Monday today. More like 40 shades of gris….

      Mar 16, 2020 16:54 PM

      Yeah, more of a really Dark Grey Monday.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:09 PM

    May not be the bottom, but picked up a core position in NSRPF today at $1.06

      Mar 17, 2020 17:09 AM

      Novo is looking attractive again at these prices. I’ve considered it myself, but with so many of the high quality producers slashed to ridiculous levels the last 2 weeks, it is harder for me to consider longer range conglomerate bed gold nuggets in the Pilbara. Still, now that it has basically done a round trip up and back down, it is looking interesting.

        Mar 17, 2020 17:12 AM

        Dont look now Ex but gold is having another crack at that $1446 region. This selloff is looking similar to yesterday timewise but not quite as severe… Yet!

        GFC 2.0! This certainly has the potential to be worse than GFC circa 2008-09.

          Mar 17, 2020 17:18 AM

          Well, I couldn’t stand it any longer so I looked, and Gold is currently trading at $1503, so it is still not in danger of breaching the most recent “higher low” yet. It would be far more constructive for it to bottom above that level.

            Mar 17, 2020 17:51 AM

            Yeh a nice bounce for the time being. Think it got as low as $1456 then bounced right back up. Hope it holds???

            Mar 17, 2020 17:24 AM

            Now Gold is back at $1540 and Silver is just a few clicks away from $13.

    Mar 16, 2020 16:44 PM

    Thanks Bill. Experience has taught me, regarding the opposite persuasion, once bitten, twice burned—-

    Mar 16, 2020 16:44 PM

    Thx Buzz…we are grateful for our failures as they made us much more careful…wiser