Economic data has been worse than in 2008/09. Does the market have it priced in?

March 30, 2020

On the back of the almost 3.3million jobless claims reported Friday, today we saw the Dallas manufacturing index drop to -70. This is far below the estimate of -10 and is lower than the bottom during the great financial crisis of -60.

John Rubino joins me today to share his thoughts on how bad this data can get and the lasting impacts. We also discuss the markets and how much of this is already priced in.

Click here to visit John’s site.

I will be sending out more emails going forward recapping the recent interviews and company updates. Be sure to sign up by clicking here.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:44 AM

    While the stock market may be up today, once the first quarter results actually come in the bottom will drop out of the market.
    There is an almost universal delay in recognizing the disruption of the supply chain.
    The supply chain has been emptying as sales have continued.
    The bail out bill did little to stimulate the production of goods, while it largely disguised bankruptcy potentials.
    The supply chain is disrupted, will continue to be disrupted and will not be rebuilt quickly.
    Replacing Chinese production by U.S. production is not simple, even if it is desirable.
    There will be little relative change in currencies, but classical economic theory dictates that increased money chasing fewer goods forces price increases.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:48 AM

    I fail to see how John Rubino can be correct about gold and silver. Their price is manipulated on the COMEX, as evidenced by the deviation between retail and wholesale prices.

      Mar 30, 2020 30:52 PM

      An observation on gold. My gold dealer (in rough terms) used to charge 1% to 3% over spot for bullion and buyback at 5% below spot (somewhat negotiable if you are a good customer). Today he is charging 4% to 6% over spot and buying back at spot. So there’s clearly something going on, not sure it will turn into anything in the next 6 months or just fizzle out – you never can tell with gold

        Mar 30, 2020 30:56 PM

        Seeing the same here…….Nigel……..there is a shortage on the street…

          Mar 30, 2020 30:58 PM

          Will be more so, with people wanting to buy, and the stores being closed, in the lock down of America….in some cities…and states.

        Mar 30, 2020 30:19 PM

        I think the shortage is in small retail products (rounds, ingots/bars, etc) rather than the raw material (“good delivery” 1,000 ounce bars). The same thing happened in 2008 and people misread the situation then, too.
        I still think the metals are going higher since the huge increase in retail demand is sure to have an impact on overall demand. In addition, bigger money was surely moved to buy the 1,000 ounce bars alongside the retail guys’ buying of smaller products.

          Mar 30, 2020 30:48 PM

          I think you could be right Matthew both on it going higher and the shortage may be more in retail at least in the short term. You can still get 1kg bars at 1.5% over spot if you don’t insist on newly manufactured Metalor, for example.

          Mar 30, 2020 30:57 PM

          No. THERE IS A SHORTAGE IN LONDON BARS…..just try and take delivery.
          They will quietly settle in cash and give you a few percent for your inconvenience…just sign this non-disclosure form.

            Mar 30, 2020 30:39 PM

            Egon Von Greyerz says he can still get physical but…
            “For anyone who doesn’t own gold or only paper gold, I suggest to acquire gold at virtually any price. You cannot buy physical gold at the paper gold price you see on the screen. You can of course buy unlimited paper gold at that price but that will soon have zero value. Our company is fortunate to still find physical gold for our clients but that situation will not last if the refiners don’t start producing soon.”

            And silver is worse…
            “To make it very clear, the screen price for gold bears no resemblance to reality. If you can get hold of gold buy it now without worrying about the markup. Silver is even worse. There is no physical silver available in large amounts. Whatever smaller amounts are available can fetch a 100% premium.”

    Mar 30, 2020 30:52 AM

    Off topic:
    Jaguar Mining is likely to have a good year after some great improvements over the last year. The company has returned to profitability and is now hedge free. Between the high gold price and collapsed oil price, Q1, Q2 and beyond should be very good.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:56 PM

    How ’bout that SILVER info on the DebtClock!

      Mar 30, 2020 30:05 PM

      The Debt Clock, always is very informative………I have used it several times….

    Mar 30, 2020 30:01 PM

    Silvercrest to suspend Las Chispas work until April 30

    2020-03-30 08:15 ET – News Release

    Mr. N. Eric Fier reports


    Silvercrest Metals Inc. has added protocols to minimize exposure to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in order to decrease risk to the company’s employees, contractors, families and communities near the Las Chispas project located in Sonora, Mexico. In collaboration with government agencies, the company will temporarily suspend its continuing exploration and underground development work at Las Chispas at least until April 30, 2020, to limit potential exposure of personnel and nearby communities to the virus.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:02 PM

    Ely to receive $842,318 from early warrant exercise

    2020-03-27 07:20 ET – News Release

    Mr. Trey Wasser reports


    Ely Gold Royalties Inc. has entered into a warrant exercise incentive agreement with 2176423 Ontario Ltd., which is beneficially owned by Eric Sprott, to induce the holder to effect an early exercise of 2,807,727 of its outstanding unlisted warrants, issued in a June, 2019, private placement, exercisable for common shares of the company. The warrants are exercisable at a price of 30 cents per common share until June 28, 2022.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:10 PM

    The shortage in the gold bars unfortunately is mainly due to the corona virus issue. Transportation is down and a whole raft of refineries are closed. Comex delivers their bars in 100 ounces so gold has to be poured to meet their requirements—since there are a dearth of refineries working, the movement of gold is really down and probably why retailers are on the end of the list to get products.

      Mar 30, 2020 30:48 PM

      If, it is down,…….why buy the miners…….?
      Comex , you would trust anything comex and lbma has to publish…..really…

        Mar 30, 2020 30:23 PM

        Hardly, I get it from an independent source.

    Mar 30, 2020 30:54 PM

    There’s another sector absolutely ripe for the pickings with way more opp in my view..!!
    “In contrast beware of the extreme hype currently with respect to gold and silver. Such extreme sentiment along with stories of shortage and conspiracies about price suppression tend to attend a top. We’ll load up on quality mining stocks and speculations related to precious metals if there’s another major liquidation soon”
    Got short before the mini crash and long at the bottom NUGT then bailed out most the PMs.
    Good luck!

      Mar 30, 2020 30:24 PM

      Bill, I agree and have been saying that April/May could be difficult for the miners and if it then gold also will follow.

        Mar 31, 2020 31:42 PM

        Yes thx Doc. You prolly printed it!! Im here for 2 min a day.
        Oil is the trade of a decade now…

    Mar 30, 2020 30:34 PM

    Precious Metals and Diamond Digest

    March 30, 2020

    Russia, world’s biggest buyer of gold, will stop purchases

    With gold prices near a seven-year high and international investors clamoring for a safe haven, Russian dealers are probably eager to sell.

    Read More

    Mar 31, 2020 31:41 AM

    The virus situation is starting to come under control already, and expect a V shape recovery

      Mar 31, 2020 31:58 PM

      The damage to economy is profound…don’t count on a V in the market. A protracted bear market is all but guaranteed. We bounce then go down…..I have no doubt