How are Geo-Politics impacting the markets and metals

July 1, 2020

Sean Brodrick and I chat today about how Geo-politics are impacting the markets. Everything from US equity markets to the precious metals there is a Geo-political component that is on investors minds. I also ask Sean if the gold sector will continue to be an outperforming sector for the rest of the year.

Click here to see the gold charts that Sean referred to.

Also Sean will be presenting at the online MoneyShow on July 8th. You can find out more by clicking here. It’s free

    Jul 01, 2020 01:41 AM

    Thx again for all the effort Cory.

    Any comments on the drop in gold price?\
    Personally I’m not selling a gram.

      Jul 01, 2020 01:08 PM

      London, boyz, do not want things to get away from them …….
      Keeping control, is the main thing…..always the same time of day, smasher’s delight… 🙂

    Jul 01, 2020 01:01 PM

    /GC weekly hit the upper channel resistance line, it is only wave C up but RSI(14) is weak on weekly…The TD count weekly is 6..1.272 expansion from previous swing points….so could hang on a week or so more prior to normal intermediate correction…

    Jul 01, 2020 01:02 PM

    Where Are We In The Junior Mining Bull Market Cycle? No US Election In November

    by @Goldfinger on 30 Jun 2020

    “Trying to predict the future is never an easy task. However, we can look to the past for some clues. The biggest junior mining bull market that I can recall in my lifetime occurred between 2002 and 2006/07. I remember seeing portfolio values jump by 5%-6% per day for multiple days in a row during the peak of the euphoria in early 2006. And i’m not talking about a portfolio of 5 juniors, i’m talking about a broad portfolio of 50+ holdings.”

    “While some of us may have felt like this has been happening in the last week or so, I can assure you this is NOT April/May 2006. In fact, by most accounts we are still probably only in the 3rd or 4th inning (baseball has 9 innings) of this bull market. Check out this chart comparing the current gold bull to previous ones…”

      Jul 01, 2020 01:07 PM

      Interesting article. Do you know more about Bobs prediction that there will be no election?

      If the infection numbers continue like this that might be the case. US has now 100 times more infections than Germany (both do a lot of testing).

    Jul 01, 2020 01:05 PM

    Precious Metals Pummeled – Who Needs Safe-Havens When We Have A ‘Vaccine’?

    Wed, 07/01/2020

    Medical data on 24 people promoted via press release… stocks panic-bid and precious metals puked…

    “This morning’s vaccine headlines were enough to prompt selling to accelerate into the London Fix and bust stops through $1800…”

    “Silver was also hit but remains above $18…”

      Jul 01, 2020 01:06 PM

      Personally, I don’t think the pullback in Gold was just due to the Vaccine news, but rather, most of the investing world noting that Glenfidish’s target of $1800 was hit, and investors sold that round number as resistance. 😉

        Jul 01, 2020 01:09 PM

        Glenfidish says we’re going to $1820 -$1840 next, which is a nice range to shoot for, so now that I’m back out of the mountains hiking through rock formations and in front of a glowing screen again watching companies pull rocks out of the ground, then I’m ready to see this Precious Metals party get started. Bring it on!!

        Also, it would be nice to see Silver take a run at last year’s high of $19.75 on the next leg higher in the PMs.

          Jul 01, 2020 01:51 PM

          Welcome back Ex.! Didn’t know you were gone, but certainly wondered why your plethora of posts was down! Juniors are just starting to rock. Where did you hike?

            Jul 01, 2020 01:15 PM

            Hi Charles. I was in Boulder, Denver, and Colorado Springs for the last week up in the mountains hiking with my lady. It was great to get a break from everything for a while for a mental reset and natural splendor. Also altitude effects attitude and I was mostly hanging out in the 6,000 – 10,000 feet above sea level elevation.

            I responded back to you post yesterday about the Silver miners showing some nicer action lately, and that I hold both Uranium companies UUUU and UEC that you mentioned. Yes, it h


            On June 30, 2020 at 1:21 pm,
            Charles says:

            “AXU, Kooteney, Impact, USAS and Brixton all looking great! It was Kooteney’s turn today.”


            > Agreed – it was nice to see Kootenay playing catch up finally. Ever upward!

            Jul 01, 2020 01:22 PM

            EX…….glad you had fun…….that is or was a great place to enjoy the outdoors…..beautiful

            Jul 01, 2020 01:08 PM

            Thanks OOTB. Yes, we hit many parks and had some amazing journeys in the outdoors.

            Jul 01, 2020 01:45 PM

            Glad you had a nice refresher. My wife and I are avid hikers too. I hope to make to Colorado to hike. Did Norway last year and am glad it’s off the bucket list. Flying is low on my list these days. Based on how well my portfolio did while you were away I must request getting advance notice the next time you’ll be away so I can go all in. 😏

            Jul 01, 2020 01:55 PM

            NIce Wolfster. Norway is definitely on my bucket list. Yeah, we were reserved about flying, but it was the same ole same ole, and if anything, with all the planes and terminals being cleaned and so many less people in the airports it is likely the safest time to fly in decades.

            Yes, to your point, I’ve noticed that when we travel my portfolio does well and there is all kinds of action when I’m tied up and can’t do anything about it. There were a few days I spent 5 minutes looking at the markets at breakfast or lunch a did a bit of trading, but mostly I ignored all things internet for a week. Very nice to have a week with little incoming input and just enjoying panoramic scenes of nature. However, in reviewing some moves in the miners, I missed some fireworks.

            For example, I was all geared up waiting on the Vizsla news and then when it broke and the stock doubled over the next few days, I was out of the loop to celebrate. There were a few occasional posters that mentioned there would be better value elsewhere and Vizsla would keep trending lower. I wanted to post a chart coming out the March lows where I first initiated my position and discussed buying to present pricing on their behalf 🙂

            Jul 01, 2020 01:00 PM

            Nice Ex! Colorado is the best in the summertime!

            Jul 02, 2020 02:10 AM

            Yes the vizsla train has just got going…..I struggled with not selling 1/2 to have free trading shares…..hopefully I don’t end up regretting it. I’ve watched Kootenay twice make nice runs and never took any off the table as I expected(dreamt/wanted) something in the .40’s….3rd times a charm??? Cheers

            Jul 02, 2020 02:29 AM

            To think I almost mentioned discovery along with vizsla…. boy would I have looked smart. Somethings cooking with discovery obviously

            Jul 02, 2020 02:31 AM

            Hey Wolfster – yeah, I was banging the table on both Vizsla and Discovery Metals, for fundamental and technical reasons and since they have both taken off over the last few months, it just made good rational sense that they’d be moving much higher. Nothing radically smart about it, just cause & effect.

            Yes, you raise a good point about the art of when to pull some profits, as like you I watched Kootenay rise and fall and then rise and fall a few times, but I did recently trim back 1/4 of my position on it’s surge higher, and I trimmed back 1/3 of my Vizsla last week into the frenzy. As for Discovery Metals I’ve traded around my core position about a half dozen times already this year scalping gain on big moves to raise some dry powder, and then firing some ammo off when it dips. Rinse and repeat.


            Jul 02, 2020 02:50 AM

            I’ve even reluctantly reduced down the size of my Argonaut Gold (AR) position as it just keeps climbing higher and higher, but I spent months outlining the value drivers for them here on the KER and posted a great deal of information as to why it was going to get rerated higher. Some posters here disagreed and felt it topped a while back, but clearly that is not what has played out, and as expected it has kept moving higher and higher and taken out last years highs now. One didn’t need to be smart to see that reality playing out, but just needed to do some comparative analysis on all their production pipeline improving, the value of the Alio Gold assets they scooped up in their acquisition (which were prior Rye Patch Gold assets), and then most importantly the huge leverage of their 3 primary Development projects (in particular Magino). Argonaut was my largest position earlier this year, but I reduced it some, and just recently reduced it again, when it kept creeping up the batting order in weighting in my portfolio.

            I had to reduce down Silvercorp, Impact, and Alexco this year as well when they got to be too large in my portfolio, and I moved some funds further down the food chain into developers like Treasury Metals, Aurcana, Discovery Metals, Falco, Southern Silver, and I’ve been adding to other producers that deserve a re-rating like Gold Resource Corp and Galiano Gold (formerly Asanko).

            Catching re-ratings in mining stocks often involves doing boring homework, and ignoring the haters only looking at companies through the lens of recency bias and how things went in a recent 1-2 quarters. The key is to look beyond where a company has been but to analyze where they are heading based on their guidance, rational for previous issues, how quickly those issues are being fixed, look at paying down of debt levels, look for production enhancements, metals recovery rates improvement, and exploration success in expanding their resources and mine life.

            The recent move in many companies was a similar situation to the re-rating underway in Argonaut Gold, and it was the same thing when looking at the value proposition for Sierra Metals (SMTS) and how very undervalued they were compared to peers, but I believe some investors have a hard time classifying them as Sierra Metals is a polymetallic producer from 3 mines with Silver, Zinc, Copper, Lead, and Gold production, but they were destined to move higher. Now, candidly I didn’t expect a swarm of new herd following Robinhood traders to pounce on it moving it up 250% in a few days (haha!) but it was long overdue to start getting rerated higher, and I mentioned adding to it on here since the March lows and continued adding in April & May until it had grown to a large position in my portfolio. However, when it surged, I’m no dummy and trimmed some back into that move, and when it pulled back down I reloaded. Rinse and repeat.

            There are many other re-ratings that are overdue, and one doesn’t need to be that smart, they just need to get positioned when these companies are unloved, and be patient. It will come.

            Jul 02, 2020 02:24 AM

            (AR) Argonaut Gold and (ALO) Alio Gold Complete Merger to Create North American Diversified Intermediate Gold Producer

            by @nasdaq on 1 Jul 2020

            Pete Dougherty, President and CEO of Argonaut Gold, stated: “By combining Argonaut with Alio, we have created a diversified, intermediate gold producer with four producing mines, an enviable growth asset pipeline and increased capital markets scale. On behalf of the entire Argonaut Gold team I would like to personally welcome Ms. Paula Rogers and Mr. Stephen Lang to the Board of Directors.”


          Jul 02, 2020 02:01 AM


          Good to have you back pal! A healthy hike does good for the mimd hope you got all accomplished. Thanks for your kind words. Your absolutely right I’m regards to these numbers we play with. I could not agree anymore. All the distractions like corona, ebola, options expiry, holidays, black live matters etc etc is all noise which in some cases price is already factored in and in others it overnight smash or opening smash as Gary would say the cartel is up to tricks. The importance that we all know is stay the course and don’t get bucked off unless you feel strongly in your own assumptions that gold is going into the intermediate decline. This of course would be for the short term traders and not so much longer term strategy.

          You may catch me at times throwing out the rounded numbers lol as I’ve stated before i leave those decimal points and calculations better to you and Matt that have way more experience in that department. I think what i bring is similar and my strength really is in blowing up a weekly but more importantly monthly chart that goes way back to the 1980’s and 1990’s and sometimes you take deep breath and the picture speak a trillion words in today’s inflation. It really is something else as Matt would say. All the answers most of the time are right in front of that chart. Funny how this works and market was created.

          Anyhoo pal all the best and seems to me we either go a bit higher and then correct or this weekly correction has started and we need to lower indicators to go higher. All In all I feel safe enough to say imo we will have a nice monthly close. I will not over promise or under deliver. Let’s see what happens.

          Oh yes I totally agree with your silver call..I think we will break it ex as Matt and yourself have been saying. Going to be a nice run.

          My only regret this far was to have some aurcana on a double. I guess the team had me thinking and I have to much trust issues with them over the years. I’m glad I got my double and redeployed all of it into my etf on the 20th of June I believe. The previous bottom of this run.

          I agree that the new outlook eventually should have aun going higher but I much rather out my trust in companies like impact and others.


            Jul 02, 2020 02:22 AM

            Hey Glenfidish – good points as per usual. Yes, most of the global news can still be fleeting catalysts with Gold, but there are so many different factors that affect the yellow metal from interest rates, to bonds, to currencies, to economic health of different nations, to various reasons for large institutions or governments to buy/sell, that it is really much better to look at Gold through the lens of price action and charting.

            Good call on the yellow metal getting above $1800 (albeit just barely), and while I don’t particularly like round numbers for forecasting, they are a psychological barrier at times, and once in a while fall close enough to a support/resistance are to have value, but more often than not they aren’t that important. What are important for support/resistance levels are prior peaks/troughs, trendlines, Fibonacci extensions or retracements, pivot points, key moving averages, momentum indicator crosses, and watching Japanese candlestick patterns for clues. It is very rare that these cart overlays and indicators line up with round numbers, but again they are psychological numbers so there can be congestions when a handle changes up or down a significant digit. (like gold in the $1700s to $1800 like we just saw).

            Now, with individual company mining stocks, the news is far more relevant. Yes there are movements in mining stocks based on the underlying metals prices or how changes to local currencies exchange rates will affect labor or energy inputs, but ultimately their management team, assets under control, and company newsflow is the lifeblood of what moves their share price. Obvious TA is critical to use here as well and balances out all the noise, but when a company puts out amazing drill holes, or gets a long awaited permit, or announced going into production, or announces a new strategic partner/JV parnter/or acquisition then it will move the needle in an extreme fashion in the short/medium term and then TA takes back over again.

            As for Aurcana, I’ve held onto my shares and added more a while back but did trim a bit on the surge higher last month, but have most of the core position in place. There is a completely different team in place then there was years back when they had all the problem and the old management team was rightly jettisoned. (AUN) lost their old Mexican mine in the company restructuring but they retained their Shafter Silver mine in TX but stopped production and put it on care and maintenance. Then this new team took over Aurcana, purchased theRevenue-Virginius Mine, in Colorado and just in March acquired more land around it with the Blue Grass claim acquisition.

            Aurcana’s Revenue-Virginius Mine is the highest grade Silver mine in the world (by a factor of 2 or 3 compared to most deposits) that is not currently in production (although it was a prior producing mine). If they can expand the resource size further with the new claim blocks and get this mine back into production, then the economics are extremely solid. Then when Silver prices move back into the $21-$23 area they can also bring their 2nd mine Shafter back into production.

            I’m holding onto AUN as they move toward Silver production in the next year at R.V. and see them having a lot of upside optionality to rising metals prices. The new team has been executing fine, but slowly, but slow and steady wins the race and now that Silver is moving higher they have timed things perfectly.

            Ever Upward!

            Jul 02, 2020 02:32 AM

            Well said ex!

            Thanks for the detailed summary. I agree with everything you said. Forever up! 🙂

            Jul 02, 2020 02:50 AM

            Thanks for those comments on Aurcana. I have held those feelings of suspecting Aurcana management and am glad to hear that it is a new group. The R-V mine sounds great. I have removed my trigger finger from the sell button and will let it ride. My suspicions now seem unfounded. Discovery having a good day after Sprott said it was his “favorite” silver play for the future. We will see if todays jump continues in the future. I am also hoping rational thought is regained after the always suspicious US employment data was released today without mention of last months reporting area. Additionally suspicious was the immediate smash of the PMs and within a short period the POTUS had a speech written, a press conference set and a presentation made about how wonderful everything is going. Seems like someone ought to be in jail after that whole round of events. I guess no harm no foul if the markets recognize the fallacy of it all. Onward and upward through the wall.

            Jul 02, 2020 02:53 AM

            area = error

            Jul 02, 2020 02:10 AM

            Thanks Glenfidish. Cheers mate!

            David – yes, I was very disappointed in the old Aurcana team and lost on their efforts, but after the restructuring and the new team coming on board I was willing to evaluate things again with fresh eyes. At first I didn’t understand why they went out and acquired the Revenue-Virginius Mine, as I was thinking they’d get official NI 43-101 resources going on Shafter instead and get it ready to go back into production. After looking at the R.V. mine more closely I get it now – the economics are fantastic at today’s Silver prices and are ridiculously good when Silver moves back up into the low $20’s. It is a small deposit, but adding the recent Blue Grass claim blocks for pennies on the dollar was wise and allows them to expand their resource there. Once those revenues start coming in that will fund the restart of Shafter. Aurcana isn’t my favorite Silver company, but I see it as a solid Developer like Alexco and Bayhorse, all 3 of which will be back into Silver production in about 1 year. All 3 near-term producers will be re-rated higher with the rising Silver prices and in anticipation of graduating from developer to producer.

            Jul 02, 2020 02:16 AM

            David – As for Discovery Metals, it has been rocketing higher because they have a massive Silver deposit, a biggie-sized exploration program, they were hitting paydirt before the Covid-19 shut downs, and just got the drills turning again the end of last month so more newsflow is front of them.

            I posted an interview with Taj from DSV a week or so back where he mentioned that Sprott called them up and wanted them to get more aggressive and provided more funding to even increase their already large drill program. I can see why Discovery Metals is Sprott’s favorite Silver stock right now. 🙂

            I still a fan of the smaller Silver producers like Impact Silver, Santacruz Silver, Excellon, etc… but some of these Silver developers doing great exploration like Discovery Metals, Kootenay, and Vizsla are finally getting noticed. Heck even Southern Silver and Orex are finally getting a little bid started.

        Jul 01, 2020 01:40 PM

        Ditto EX…….the moron who wrote the article at zerohedge….does not have a clue…jmo

          Jul 01, 2020 01:44 PM

          I just read the article… you said , it was not the vaccine….

            Jul 01, 2020 01:47 PM

            I am voting for GERM FREE SILVER Coins….. 🙂

            Jul 01, 2020 01:20 PM

            Yes, good plan OOTB. I’ve been taking colloidal Silver tinctures lately, but I just had to brave the airports. Honestly, the airports were sparse and the cleanest they’ve ever been, but having a little germ free Silver was nice as well.

            Jul 01, 2020 01:26 PM

            Sound kind of good,,,Might not be so bad,…might be like the airports in the 60 and 70s, before the sheeple started screwing everything up….. lol

    Jul 01, 2020 01:15 PM

    Northstar @Northst18363337 on Twitter – 6 hours ago:

    “Gold – Nail biting stuff, but all good so far. Cautious until the red line is cleared.”

    (look at the chart)

    Jul 01, 2020 01:20 PM

    Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader on Twitter posts a solid macro podcast:

    Straight Talk #8 with @GuyAdami @RiskReversal & @NorthmanTrader

    “Join us for our discussion of what’s driving markets, trouble with banks and big tech, technical levels, Virus vs V, political risks into the election.”

      Jul 01, 2020 01:03 PM

      Thanks for the post Ex. Very entertaining and informative.

        Jul 01, 2020 01:18 PM

        Agreed. Sven Henrich is a savvy macro economics pundit, and has a nice following on Twitter. I’m not on it personally, but check a few feeds from time to time, and another poster @Leon over at posted that recently and it seemed worth reposting.

    Jul 01, 2020 01:08 PM

    9 Credit Suisse VelocityShares™ ETNs set to stop trading as soon as end-of-day 7/2
    UGLD, USLV, DGLD, DSLV, ZIV, VIIX, and TVIX will no longer trade on any national securities exchange after July 2. UGAZ and DGAZ will stop trading after 7/10. They will be delisted on 7/12 and there will be no further issuances of these ETNs.

      Jul 01, 2020 01:59 PM

      dw jones – thanks for that heads up on the changes/delisting of those ETNs. Interesting as that means many investors will have to use more options trading to go into long/short positions or pile into the main ETFs now.

    Jul 02, 2020 02:25 AM

    Hugh Hendry on the Need for Chaos, Radicalizing the Fed

    CloudFin – June 29, 2020