Happy New Year to you all! I hope you all enjoy this weekend’s show. Let’s hope 2021 is a better year then 2020. Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the first show of the New Year by recapping the top stories he posted in 2020. We cover gold, energy, commodities, and Bitcoin. All with an outlook into the New Year. Click here to visit the Felder Report website.
- Segment 3 – Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders recaps some of his better trades of the year in gold, silver and bonds. We then look to 2021 and the sectors he thinks provide the best opportunity. These include silver miners, the EV market, clean energy, and an innovation ETF. Click here to visit The Technical Traders website.
- Segment 4 – This is replay from a segment posted on Monday. Jayant Bhandari share his analysis on the current valuation of Novo Resources. This also leads into a discussion on the investing strategy of simply following where Erik Sprott is putting his money.
I have an upcoming webinar on January 6th at 11am PST (2pm EST) featuring Newcore Gold (TSX.V:NCAU – OTC:PRCNF). Newcore Gold has a current resource of 1.2million ounces of gold and a 58,000 meter drill program underway. Please click the link below to signup for free and have first access to the recording. Also please email me any questions you have for the Company – Fleck@kerport.com.
Click here to sign up for the webinar.
This guy claims he got out stocks right before the big crash in March. That was in his short term trader newsletter but in his long-term investors newsletter that suppose to guide people in a safe environment, when when he says he got out at exact peak and saw the crash coming he full of bullshit. The long-term investors newsletter is based on $100K portfolio and his swing trader newsletter is for short term is based on $20K, so he got out stayed in cash on the short term portfolio but the long-term $100K safe portfolio he rode everyone all way down to bottom of crash. Why would you call a top and get your short term newsletter out but at same time you take your biggest portfolio and ride it right to bottom of crash.
Any smart technical guy would have at least gotten them out when stocks were swinging 2-5 thousand swings up and down in a day, and covid virus panic you watch total portfolio go down 40 pct. And claim in your other newsletter you got out at peak stocks and try to claim your technical trader system saw it coming. Bullshit.
…and he set in cash for 3 months he missed all upside moves of the markets. Then he shorted the mkts over a dozen times each with losses except one GDXJ long play which he exited before, and missed, a huge continued move up. Transparency is rare
Couldn’t agree more. For some reason he has been provided a soapbox. Bet that if his actual trades, that’s if he actually deploys real capital via an audit would prove to be atrocious. This guy is a horrible technician to put it mildly. Maybe even a fraud posing as a guru.
“Maybe even a fraud posing as a guru.” #1. Agree……don’t spend a lot of time listening to this guy unless you have a lot of extra time with nothing, I mean nothing else to do.
The cabal is letting bitcoin explode higher, yet they have put a lid on PMs. They do not want us to own any gold/silver. It is as simple as that. They must be laughing their heads off as they continue to spit in our face.
You guys keep saying “this guy” who is “this guy”?
And happy happy everyone.
Paul / aghead / Mineralsrmoney….Just come to this site every day, great info & tips & all for free……… There are too many cowboys , out there making a lot of money off people, Without giving value….IMO
+1 Agreed IrishT.
To have several people dog pile on to trash talk Chris V. (one of the weekend guests sharing his analysis for free) is bad form. If you don’t like or agree with a guest that is fine, and you could just skip his analysis, or better yet, offer your own superior analysis. However, to make ones only posts about tearing someone else down, while providing no value in their posts is the pot calling the kettle black.
Paul, is just a negative guy……imo…..
Are you taking about Felder or Vermeulen?
I don’t pay attention to either one but it has to be Vermeulen based on comments I’ve seen about him in the past.
I disagree with your interpretation of what Jayant said. He questioned the value Novo and sold out and now has found more info and is looking to buy back in and searching for an entry point. Those that trade in and out of a stock face this decision all the time. Knowing price movement Novo this last week he appears to have lost a bit on the trade. So be it – I got in early and am doing well. I don’t have the time to dance around my positions so I am more a of a buy and hold guy. Every investor has their own trading style and it has costs and benefits. On average my guess is he does way better than me but he is a Pro at it and I am not. I find it refreshing that he told us what he saw, did and didn’t try to blow smoke up our behinds.
There also is a larger issue here – the warning to folks like us to not automatically follow everything that Erik Sprott does. That is simple wisdom and thanks to him and Cory for doing a public service. Cory is right – Erik has made some great investments and turned around more than one Company in the process but when Erik Sprott invests in a company it is changed and “we” need to do our own due diligence and look at those companies in light of what they are now not what they were before his investment.
Finally, re: Jayant – I personally want to send him my thanks – I’m learning and he taught me all about the ins and outs of arbitrage and I’ve done well with that info. He is a great value investor and reminds me that price matters. I now have a fairly chunky position of First Mining Gold because of that information that I bought via a series of mergers on the cheap. I still need to learn a bit more about when to sell!!! Re: his other stock picks – so far they have been good to very good so I’m always happy to see him on the show.
That’s why they sell newsletters… it is the only way they make money. He is a charlatan…
Wishing a happy and prosperous 2021 to all! I find it most helpful if guests, when talking price would qualify as to US or Cdn $.
A number of years ago, many on Ker generously shared their wisdom and advice (incl Bob M) with me, and I continue to reflect upon those pearls of wisdom often. Specifically, Matt was one of those kind contributors, as were you Ex, offering the idea of investing in the Royalty plays. I have done that. My holdings of royalties is considerably healthy and varied. I do appreciate you regularly sharing your latest royalty plays because it’s aligned to my portfolio.
I currently hold approx 20-25% of my PM portfolio in the royalty area.
Onward and upward to all for 2021.
Thanks Canuckski, and yes I really like the business model of the royalty companies and they’ve grown in weight inside my portfolio this last year.
Here’s my Royalty company holdings:
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
Ely Gold Royalties
VOX Royalty Corp
Golden Valley Mines
Nomad Royalty Company
I’ve considered Orogen, Altius, Anglo Pacific, and Riverside as well. I guess a new one just launched called Empress Royalty that will need to be looked into.
It is easy for investors to get swept up into the daily fluctuations for any asset class or stock, and to be on the edge of one’s seat trying to determine what will happen right around the corner. We all wonder what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, etc….
With regards to what the drivers for the Precious Metals will be, there are always short term events (black swans, Fed statements, Brexit, trouble in EU, stimulus bills, news on repo market swaps, etc…) that come and go, but the longer term thesis (boring as it is now) is still relevant.
There IS way too much national debt on that backs of countries all over the globe. Central bank meddling and increasing the money supply through easing measures, combined with super low – to zero – to even negative rates that also translate to negative real rates, is a great environment for the Precious Metals. Gold is increasingly being remembered as the “uncurrency” and uncorrelated store of value that it is, and this will become even more apparent as the Humpty Dumpty general markets fall off the wall, and all the Feds horses, and all the King’s financial advisors can’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
It is interesting to note that when most market pundit “experts” discuss the demand divers for gold, it is often focused on as jewelry demand out of the East, industrial fabrication, and then where the investment demand will come from. These are all real fundamental factors that absorb the physical markets, but ultimately not the source of what is driving the gold prices.
The Gold prices are driven by the futures markets, and they are massive and forward looking. This is almost entirely investment related, and has little to do with what the little guy on the street is buying from his local coin shop, and much more to do with larger money flows in the paper markets of futures contracts, or at a minimum the ETF inflows on “paper gold.” It would be nice if the actual physical markets were what drove price for real supply and demand fundamentals, but that isn’t what we’ve seen for many many years. One can fight that reality, and get upset about it philosophically, or just embrace the price action as it comes, and follow the macro trends.
The ebbs and flows of the larger paper markets in the futures contracts or GLD pricing, has little to do with jewelry and industrial fabrication, and more to do with larger big money reactions to national and international monetary policies and as tool to store value without national or individual company counter-party risk.
For a long time, as the haters and bears came out to bash Gold as a pet rock, their basic attack was that it was a boring, lifeless rock, that didn’t do anything, didn’t pay dividends or interest, and was an archaic relic of the past that no longer was money.
> The simple question to ask then: Well if Gold isn’t Money, then why the hell are Central Banks continuing to buy Gold and store it in their vaults then?
This point, while very obvious, it getting stale in investors need for more reasons why the Precious Metals will continue to see more demand. Well let’s take the jewelry demand, industrial fabrication demand, smaller retail demand, and even central bank demand out of the equation for just a moment and look at crest of an investment wave that is just now coming into shore.
>> There is actually a huge 800 Pound Gorilla in the room that very few of the macro “experts” are discussing or have even considered.
The new money flows into gold won’t necessarily need to be physical buyers of jewelry in the East, small retail investors, or even a large increase from central bankers, because it will actually be a huge Rotation Trade out of Bonds and into Gold.
On a larger institutional level, the real rotation into Gold (and Silver) hasn’t even really begun yet. The Bond Bubble will pop, and the everything rally will end. When the music stops, and larger funds start scrambling for the remaining chairs, a large sector rotation will shift into to high gear looking for a place to shelter their assets from the coming storm. It will happen gradually at first, and then as things devolve in the general markets, all of the sudden.
When large generalist institutional investment funds, pension funds, and family offices look for an alternative to the “safety” of Bonds in their portfolios over the next 3-5 years, (realizing that the cheese has moved), then there really aren’t that many safe havens to pick from. Gold is a far larger and more liquid market, that can actually absorb outflows from the Bond market, compared to Bitcoin & cryptos, or REITs, etc… To be sure, some funds or family offices may start allocating to something like Bitcoin, but for the old-guard bond investors, many of them will finally start rolling funds over into Gold.
This IS the major investment DEMAND that is coming for Gold, and it will play out over the next 3-5 years. It will only take a relatively small percentage of the “Safe Haven” funds currently in the Bond sector, to finally get allocated to Gold to make a massive difference in pricing. They won’t likely be storing bullion in a vault, so most of those investor funds, pension funds, and family offices will purchase exposure to the yellow metal through ETFs like the GLD. This will increase the ETF demand for much more physical inflows, and this massive institutional buying will be the market force that sets the pricing, more so than the retail guy or gal on the streets.
This is the prime mover in demand that is coming in the medium to longer term, and worth considering, far more than the daily gyrations or latest black swan event or Fed statement.
Most of the generalist investors on the front lines have never really experienced a true recession or depression. Yes, there was the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, but it was bailed out by what seemed radical at the time – Quantitative Easing by central banks, and government policies like home credits, cash for clunkers, appliance credits, and interventionist policies. This trend has perpetuated all over the globe, with more and more QE, more stimulus, more direct purchasing of corporate bonds and securities in the open markets, and this ongoing easing, with near zero rates to borrow more and more money by banks and large corporations has just further spiked the punchbowl and pushed more and more buying into the nosebleed levels the general markets have reached. A point is coming, in the not so distant future (1-3 years) where the jig will be up, the music will come to a screeching halt, and that game will no longer work.
When the stocks top and start gradually turning down, some will buy the dip like they always have, but the markets will keep dropping, Then the selling will beget more selling, and the market function that usually provided a floor (short sellers covering as they clean up shop on a correction) won’t be there. Short sellers are nearly extinct at this point after 11 years of getting decimated. What this means is that when the selling really picks up steam, there won’t be the kind of support floor that normally is there, so it will be market circuit breakers instead, and a surging VIX.
When the generalist investors go through this, as their phone lines light up, and redemptions keep coming in, they’ll look for safety, and few older participants may remember the strange yellow relic from the past, that doesn’t do anything, and just sits there as a store of value – Gold.
Hi EX…You just surpassed yourself , with that great article. It’s no wonder why you are so popular on this site. You forward looking , & seem to have the gift , of knowing what could happen in the future. You share so much knowledge with the people on this site.
For which i Thank You…..I shall stop now , dont want your head getting so big , that it explodes………..LOL
Much appreciated IrishT. Just a little new year rant. 🙂
Ex: Right on point. Not a rant…but a well thought out, logically flowing treatise on the “state of affairs” in the precious metals markets. Thanks for your insightful work.
Thanks for those comments David. There is still plenty of room for Gold to run over the next few years as the great Bond to Gold sector rotation gets underway. Cheers!
A Good post EX, good read. thx 4 it.
Heavy buying comes in 3-5 years…maybe, I would tend to agree, there is alot of currency around, but bitcoin for 1 thing has me wondering.
Russia selling gold to Britain is another (whatupwidat?)
Personally, if I were to bet on it(which I am) I feel gold will simply preserve its purchasing power. Boring really.
Thanks b. It just seems like the major trend that is still coming (Bond market rotation into Gold) hasn’t happened yet, and many are already calling tops on the Gold bull market, or continually asking where further demand will come from. The Bond markets are massive Trillion dollar markets and the Gold market is over a Trillion dollar market and has the size and liquidity to absorb safe haven inflows from such large institutional players, and it will force the prices higher in the yellow metal, so yes it will preserve purchasing power, but it will mean big gains for investors positioned before they jump into the pool.
As for Bitcoin, there are some family funds and a few institutional funds and pension funds that have taken out small stakes in it, but it is only a 1/2 Billion market at this point, and not nearly large enough to absorb the size of money flows that larger Bond funds will need to rotate over without spiking the price to infinity and beyond.
Maybe over 5-10 years, after funds diversify safe havens into Gold, some may start growing their allocation to Bitcoin as well. It will be a process that unfolds over this decade, but for now Bitcoin is attracting new retail money and some big fish investors as a store of value in the digital currency universe. I believe Bitcoin will grow more and outperform gold on a percentage basis, like it did this last year, but they are different vehicles for different kinds of investors. That is why there is nothing wrong with owning both for the future appreciation in both asset classes. It doesn’t need to be a mutually exclusive binary one or the other bet, that so many get into. Just buy both and ride them both accordingly. Someone in a video I was watching recently over at Real Vision mentioned for the “safe haven” allocation in one’s portfolio to have a 3:1 ratio (3 parts gold for every 1 part Bitcoin). That seemed like a reasonable strategy.
Bitcoin Blasts Past $33K for First Time, Hours After Blowing Through $30K
Jan 2, 2021 – CoinDesk
“The price of bitcoin (BTC) surged past $33,000 for the first time ever Saturday afternoon, hours after slicing through $30,000 like a light saber through gossamer, a torrid start to the year following a record-setting 2020.”
“Once the price of the leading cryptocurrency crossed the $30,000 mark for the first time — something it had struggled to do for the last couple of days — it exploded upwards like a ball released under water, reaching a new all-time high of $33,136.92, before retreating to $31,402.46, still up 7.53% over the last 24 hours.”
I dont see anything wrong with bitcoin, other than it could be outlawed, maybe,maybe not.
If it threatens a national currency somewhere, it would be.
I missed bitcoin and I have no intention of buying it at 32k. now.
True, if it goes to a 1/2 million its 15x ur money? about.
Over the years I have found multiple 15 baggers and they cost pennies, not 32k.
So seeing it that way it doesnt look too special to me.
Maybe its the next world currency tho. I doubt it but I guess ya never no.
I wonder how Bob feels about it now.
Yes, one risk is that Bitcoin may be outlawed in one particular country, but being decentralized and global, it would persist. Also, investors could convert their Bitcoin into one of a hundred other altcoins that is still legal, and new crypto would eventually just rise to take Bitcoin’s place. The cat is out of the bag at this point, and some form of this digital currency will remain in place.
Rather than worrying about it being outlawed, I’m more worried that it will be properly regulated like all major asset classes and keep climbing as it’s adoption rate increases, so I’ll likely keep a small position in place to track it.
For the reasons mentioned further down below in a response to Wolfster, I actually see more promise in Ethereum as the platform that much of the other FinTech will be build on.
This year the biggest opportunity was actually in the crypto miners and blockchain companies with interesting use cases and applications, specifically around smart contracts, authentication and tracking, and data security.
In contrast, I’m far more concerned about any digital currencies that nations eventually develop, as they will be mechanisms of control from a Technocratic Big Data and Big Government. If/When a large country like the US or China, or a group of nations like the EU comes out with a digital currency, it will not be decentralized and fair, it will be centralized and corrupt and use the internet of things to monitor & track every aspect and transaction of people’s life.
That worries me far more than an EMP knocking out all power and destroying Bitcoin. (which again would destroy modern society across the board). If anything people are going more digital, not less so; at their own peril….
Global Elites Plan To Destroy Credit Scores & Enslave You With Cryptocurrency
I Love Prosperity – Dec 26, 2020
“In this video we explore a lot about cryptocurrency, the global elites plan, the IMF discussing a credit score system that takes in your browsing history, and much more.”
Bitcoin is now trading at $33,774 per. “Don’t call it a comeback” Ha!
As one who grew up in a world before computers, I have a basic distrust for electronic creations as I neither fully understand the science or have a feeling I have any control over its operation. I can see, touch, experience the mining and production of metals and even have some in my pocket or physically give it to someone in exchange for something I can also put in my pocket. With digital exchanges, I am never confident that someone with superior knowledge or access will not take my electronic and I will. Ot know how it happened, where it went or who took it and that I will never get it back. There is no paper trail so to speak, to track…at least within my capability. That doesn’t mean someone else with superior skills can’t track it…it is that I can’t personally feel safe. Recently the Federal Government was hacked. Evidently they don’t know who, how, to what extent or for how long. That is concerning when the Federal Government and Fed is wanting all digital money and current government systems are more than vulnerable to internal attack without being aware of its presence. Maybe it is generational, but credit cards which are now universally accepted, are a constant problem of electronic theft only limited by the creative intellect of the thieves which are one step ahead of regulators. Convenience is paid for by fees and interest rates charged to the user. This same issue applies to the establishment of the paper computerized futures market that sets the price of physical markets. Again the user pays for the fraud that comes with electronic convenience and the operators of the markets easily scam user as regulation is weak or non existent. I feel powerless when required to use an “at risk” system. The discouraging part is we may have no choice. The Chinese are evidently close to a digital monetary system that the Western World is not prepared for that will change the Reserve Currency status of the US and the way international exchanges will operate. If so, it appears it will be another nail in the coffin of physical control over ones property and another freedom transferred to State control. It is very concerning to one who knows the difference having lived before computers and electronic nontangibles.
Good post David. You raise some interesting points of concern that we all face regarding living in the digital age, where data is being transferred all over the planet, anonymity is disappearing, and individual freedoms are being sacrificed for convenience. One thing that has always been true is that the only constant is change.
As for Bitcoin and many of the cryptos, that is one of the whole points, it is more secure and trackable and less hackable. The only issue is keeping one’s code for a digital wallet is like having the only key to a safe, so if you lose it, you are screwed, and if someone else get’s that key, they could empty your safe. In a way this is the same kind of issue as having one’s credit card or bank account hacked. The difference is, since cryptos are decentralized, there is nobody in charge, no customer service to call for help, it is your wallet/your key/your responsibility.
One area that shows promise is using the blockchain for precisely these kinds of concerns about data security, secure transmission of information, smart contracts, authentication, tracking receipt of delivery, and that is a positive in many regards for doing business in the risky online world.
There are also cryptos like Monero strictly for people with security and privacy.
“Monero (XMR) is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency released in 2014. It is an open-source protocol based on CryptoNote. It uses an obfuscated public ledger, meaning anyone can send or broadcast transactions, but no outside observer can tell the source, amount, or destination. A proof of work mechanism is used to issue new coins and incentivize miners to secure the network and validate transactions.”
“Monero uses different privacy-enhancing technologies to achieve anonymity and fungibility. It has attracted users desiring privacy measures that are not provided in more popular cryptocurrencies. ”
Admittedly, altcoins like Monero don’t have a huge adoption rate or use at this point. If you scan down the list of cryptos, it has the 16th highest market cap at only $2.5 Billion.
In contrast, as of this evening, Bitcoin has a $641 Billion market cap as it has surged to $34,530 per.
Crypo will do for currency what electronic voting did for elections.
I recommend two books.
“How to calculate primes”
“Breaking RSA codes for fun and profit”
Crypto Trends to Watch in 2021 | Eric Wade
Stansberry Research – Dec 31, 2020
Bitcoin & Michael Saylor – A Masterclass in Economic Calculation
Preston Pysh – Dec 25, 2020 #AudioInterview
On today’s show, billionaire Michael Saylor discusses his big move into Bitcoin. Additionally, he goes into detail on how he conducts economic calculation during a time where central bankers are printing in an accelerative manner.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
-How Michael Saylor defines Inflation, risk premiums and hurdle rates
-The fundamentals of Microstrategy
-Why he’s putting Bitcoin on his balance sheet
-Why he issued convertible debt to buy more bitcoin
-How other companies will likely follow suit
Great Post……..as always…… OWL, should read it and make a statement….
Ha! Much appreciated OOTB. I believe the Big Owl still believes in the longer term thesis for the PMs, but it’s the generalist investors that haven’t had the wakeup call… yet. All in due time… Ever Upward!
Yes, I agree with IT… go get that article published Ex, It is pretty darn good.
Ha! Thanks for the encouragement Canuckski, and glad some of my rambling resonated.
Ex, you “SLY DOG”, you just put pen to paper and slew a whole host of dragons. (misconceptions) The Pen is mightier than the sword. ROSEBUD! DT
Finally a few free minutes to ramble….Glenfidishs recent comment about the different contributions we all make here has had me look at what I bring the table. It’s occurred to me that with the great technicals we get from individuals like Matthew and Glenfidish or the all round information from Ex,theres not too much I can usually add on the metals front. This is especially apparent when I look at where I made some of my biggest gains this year….so having realized this ,let my contributions begin..
Clean energy plays were mentioned by the one guest but he made no mention of the renewalable plays. My 2 big winners in the ceo stock picking contest were Xebec and Greenlane Renewable and I think both still have room to go up in 2021. I’m waiting for a pullback/consolidation after selling during the recent parabolic move
On the EV side of things. Again I think the guest is underestimating things. Yes things are looking overpriced but…… bottom line is things are accelerating quickly towards everyone owning EV’s…..need vast infrastructure so look no farther than Blink for charging stations….battery technology nano one has huge upside as it keeps partnering with the big players in EV……Greenpower Motors has become a player in the EV bus and cargo side. Still lots of room to go up…..and of course copper baby. 3 exploration plays I like are Kodiak,Heatherdale and GSP resources and as a producer Excelsior is finally getting there
Cannabis is still going higher and has been a huge winner for me. Planet 13 is a stalwart along with the big 4 MSO’s….should have some exposure to these especially through the warrants for their great leverage. IM Cannabis just merged with Trichome Financial and is getting a Nasdaq listing soon. Solid play going forwards….the best spec play is red white and bloom. Once they complete the Pharmaco of Michigan they will be revalued
Psychedelics are going to be big in 2021. So far I like HAVN Life Sciences on this front but need to do more DD to find a couple of other players
Like Ex I have exposure to bitcoin not because I fully understand it,but because it’s here to stay no matter how crazy it seems. I’m playing it through Voyager Digital…..bitcoin is over $32k as I write. I would not be surprised to see it hit $50k in 2021. There are so many companies that trade on the Nasdaq that are now exposed to bitcoin.
So there you have my input of things not metals based…..I will add my input on metals when something is missing but will leave it to the experts otherwise..
NOW THAT IS A GREAT CONTRIBUTION ………….JMO…..of course…… 🙂
Thanks OOTB Jerry…..makes me feel appreciated. 😉….have to be honest. I miss your posts/comments cuz I’m too lazy to go over to the political section. You always had some award winners.
Thank you very much…..I may swing in here , from time to time and Rant…. 🙂
I agree. Love your thoughts on different sectors DT. Being diversified is key and bring light to stocks in sectors other than precious metals is very helpful.
A copper play that I’ve held for some time that has done well is CPPMF.
Thanks for reminding me of the one that I watched for too long and then kept waiting for it to come back…yes it was definitely a great 2020 copper play
Doc – Thanks for the reminder on Copper Mountain Mining. It was one I was considering a ways back and need to take another look.
I recently got positioned with Western Copper & Gold (after discussing it with you a few times) and feel they still have a good future in front of them as producers of 2 metals that still have medium to longer term fundamentals. They are also a well run company that has done a good job of hitting major milestones and moving their company forward.
I did recently sell out of Sun Metals, after their merger with Serengeti Resources was announced and rotated into Kodiak Copper (in large part thanks to Wolfster keeping it top of mind, and because Chris Taylor of Great Bear fame is involved).
I have a small position as a spin out of Orefinders into Power Ore, that just changed their name and focus to QC Copper & Gold, that has done well lately.
One of the positions I’ve been building over time, as it is more thinly traded, is in Filo Mining. They have a substantial Copper resource that is large enough to be of interest to the larger Copper producers, so I see them as a call option on higher Copper prices and a takeover target.
One of the resources I was most excited about was Regulus, but I had to sell it a little while back when they ran into all the opposition for their development project from local groups, and they opted to stop exploring for the time being until they did more community relations. That is the danger of larger base metals deposits, is that they get on more people’s radars and are easier targets for radical environmental groups.
Wolfster, one of these days I’ll get back into Excelsior Mining, but I wanted to see their proof concept work first with the insitu copper mining… plus they have a really cool name. 😉
Thanks for all the comments on the Copper space, and there are so many companies to dig through, it’s hard to keep up with them all.
Ex, I couldn’t agree more with you about WRN—I’ve held it for ages and purchase more on every pull back. I’ve a really nice profit but feel the company has more to run in the future. As I’ve mentioned, the technicals and my gut tell me that we may not have the usual good run in the PM stocks in early January but might have to wait for the second half of the year. But that’s okay since there will be some good buys again in the first half of the year.
Doc – Great points on (WRN) and I’ll be adding more on pullbacks as well. I mentioned on yesterday’s blog that one of the companies I’ve done very well with in 2020 was Sierra Metals (SMTS). They are multi-mine producers and have a makeup of 39% Copper, 21% Silver, 21% Zinc, 10% Lead, and 9% Gold. It has been a good performer this year, and with all those commodities doing well, I’d expect it to keep running in the years to come.
As for the seasonal Q1 Run that we’ve seen for years in Jan/Feb/early March, I’m still constructive that we’ll see some gains at the beginning of the year, but will admit, that last year was so crazy and “unprecedented,” that it could be we see some market pressure in the fist half of the year. It would not surprise me at all to see a big “sell everything” event in 2021, but I was hoping it may fall later in the year.
I’ve got a pretty large allocation to Gold & Silver miners at present, and it does concern me that if we see sideways to down action, that I’m over allocated, and so I’ve been trying to beef up my other commodities like Copper, Nickel/PGMs, Uranium, Lithium, etc… I’ve also raised some funds to the side to deploy should we see more weakness in the near future. If the PMs do still run big in Jan & Feb as they typically do, then I’ll be lightening up into any big advances to raise more funds for a rainy day.
Thanks for sharing your insights as always.
The Green New Deal will make these metals skyrocket in value – Gianni Kovacevic
Kitco News – Dec 31, 2020
The “future” is already happening now, and copper stands to benefit the most from the electrification of our economy, said Gianni Kovacevic, CEO of CopperBank.
Major Correction Looms for Stocks While Gold Price Will Easily Rise 20% | Frank Holmes
Stansberry Research – Dec 30, 2020
“The winter ‘Melt-Up’ in stocks has many investors thinking we are in a for a great 2021, however, there are a few significant reasons we may not continue to see stock market euphoria in 2021, this according to the latest research report from Goldman Sachs.”
“Daniela Cambone speaks with Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors about the findings.”
“The G20’s quick solution is to print money and that’s why I feel gold and bitcoin will do well. The other question is, will the Biden administration raise taxes? If that happens then the market will go through a big correction,” Holmes said in the interview, part of our Outlook 2021 series.”
Graddhy put out an interesting chart on $SILVER vs $CRB:
“Yet another very big picture chart showing that the commodities bull is very much for real. A monumental breakout for silver vs commodities complex last quarter and now a backtest. As said for years, inflation is coming, not deflation.”
Great post Wolfster, and your contributions into other sectors are greatly appreciated.
You raise a good point about how many sectors have had fantastic runs in 2020 that didn’t get as much coverage here at the KER – like Clean Energy plays, the EV markets – in particular Battery companies, Biotech stocks, Fintech and Cryptos, Cannabis stocks, and now Psychedelic therapies.
I used to follow the Clean Energy space much closer back when I was investing in it, but have narrowed my focus the last few years to just Uranium and Lithium, and missed many great opportunities in solar, wind, hydro, etc… this year as a result.
Some of the Biotech stocks, mostly around Covid-19 testing or therapies, really surged in 2020 and many were 5-20 baggers. Personally, it is difficult for me to value Intellectual Property, or trials, or FDA acceptance, etc… so I generally steer clear of Biotech, but there is no doubt there are huge opportunities for outsized gains in that sector.
As for Bitcoin, I understand it well enough to know it has many of the attributes that investors look for in the PMs – store of value, uncorrelated to other currencies, decentralized and no 3rd party or counterparty risk, scarcity in supply, and investors go into it to diversify out of their local fiat currency to get money out of the banking system. I don’t see it as Gold 2.0, and still believe Precious Metals have a different kind of intrinsic value and 5,000 years of history and staying power. The issue many have with Bitcoin is if the power or internet goes out permanently, but if those things happen, gold won’t buy you much food either from starving neighbors, so that is a moot argument. The real value in Bitcoin is the computing power backing it up, but in that lies the biggest issue, which is energy consumption used to solve the math algos for verification on it’s distributed ledge. Like it or not, Bitcoin has established itself as a digital store of value, but it fluctuates so wildly, and has so much volatility, the argument can correctly be made that it really is just a speculative trading asset. Over time, as more funds and big money comes in, like we’ve seen on this run higher in 2020, the volatility will eventually smooth out a bit more.
I see the value in Ethereum as having more potential upside than Bitcoin on a percentage basis, because it has built a platform that allows other smart contracts, security protocols, gaming, pornography, social media sites, legal documents, financial tech, etc… to set up their own layer of technology on top of the Ethereum network using blockchain. Once their company’s layer is added on top of the Ethereum layer, all their altcoins & tokens interact in that ecosystem, so there is far more applications and services that can be utilized by banking, or insurance, or data security.
All of those altcoins or tokens, can then be easily converted over to Bitcoin for deep storage, and then converted over to local fiat currencies when items are needed for purchase. Paypal getting into cryptos is making the digital money conversion even more accessible. Coinbase announcing it’s IPO is another tell that things are going more mainstream, and it isn’t just a passing fad. People thought Uber and Lyft were just passing fads or startup scams at first, and now they are integrated into everyday life.
The companies that have absolutely killed it this year are the crypto miners like Hive, Riot, Microstrategy, or blockchain and security companies like Cypherpunk, or Blockchain Foundry, etc… I used to own some Hive and Riot back in 2017 and should have bought them instead of the GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust this year, but I at least wanted some Bitcoin exposure. It’s about tripled for me so far, and I’ve taken some profits recently, but still have about 1/2 of the position in place. Based on how Bitcoin is running right now in the $31,000-$32,000 zone, next week should be pretty exciting in the cryptoverse.
I dabbled in the Cannabis stocks and made some money, but it just seemed to have run too far and was unhinged from business metrics. The cannabis sector did finally correct in a big way, and now it will come down to who are the survivors, and which companies can have sustainable growth, revenues, and profits. Thanks for sharing some of the companies you feel are standouts. I have looked at Planet 13 in the past but never pulled the trigger on it.
As for the Psychedelic Therapies, ironically, I was just looking into those yesterday, as there has been more chatter about that emerging sector. Initially I shrugged when companies started to IPO, but man the last 2 months, many are already up 5-10 times, so I’m starting to build a watchlist, and look for pullbacks to potentially take out some positions.
Here’s a list of companies to start with:
Psychedelics for Medical Treatment
Better Plant Sciences PLNT
Blackhawk Growth Corp BLR
Cybin Inc CYBN
Empower Clinics CBDT
Entheon Biomedical Corp ENBI
Field Trip Health FTRP
HAVN Life Sciences Inc HAVN
Mind Medicine MMED
Mindset Pharma MSET
Mydecine Innovations Group MYCO
Neon Mind Biosciences NEON
New Wave Holdings SPOR
Numinus Wellness Inc NUMI
Pharmadrug Inc BUZZ
Psyched Wellness PSYC
Pure Extracts Technologies PULL
Red Light Holland Corp TRIP
Revive Therapeutics LTD RVV
Tryp Therapeutics Inc TRYP
Xphyto Therapeutics Corp XPHY
Nice list Ex. My reasoning for HAVN is management. They’ve done it before.
Duly noted on HAVN Wolfster.
I’m considering moving some funds into this sector in 2021, but every time I find a company that seems to have a solid business model, good molecules submitted to the FDA for approvals, etc…. The stock has run 500%-1000% in the last few months.
Mind Medicine has been the one I’ve heard the most chatter on, with the most molecules sent in for investigation, but again, it’s run like crazy this year, and it reminds me of what happened to the pot stocks a few years back.
It would be very valuable if we get more posters like wolfster who concentrate on other sectors and bring their ideas and background on companies to this site especially if they come with under-performing sectors that no one likes at the moment. Being the contrarian I am I love those kind of opportunities. People don’t realize that if you pick up some of the primary stocks of under appreciated sectors when they’re scrapping the bottom, a 100-200% move is not unusual in a short peiod of time.
+1 Doc. Agreed. It is great to have contributors like Wolfster here to cover the sectors that are still huge opportunities, but that don’t get as much regular attention.
Sean Brodrick is like that in that he follows so many different sectors and is able to spot opportunities and trends before the masses do.
Another example under the EV and global electrification theme are battery companies. My intention was to get a position going in Electrovaya, Eguana Technologies, HPQ-Silicon Resources, and PyroGenesis Canada. I was tied up most of October – December preparing to put my house on the market, selling the house, and then doing 2 cross country treks to move to the Pacific Northwest.
I went and checked on them recently and all 4 battery companies have spiked up multiplefold. Despite their huge gains recently, I can’t remember anyone discussing in earnest getting into the battery manufacturers. Just another sector booming in the silence…
Here’s a chart of some of the Lithium Battery manufactures just since the March sector lows:
Electrovaya, Eguana Technologies, HPQ-Silicon Resources, BYD Company:
Other battery companies like LG Chem, SK Innovations, and CATL did well but can’t be charted on stockcharts due to the Asian ticker symbols.
Thanks Doc…..I agree regarding playing the contrarian for big plays but I will say one thing I’ve learned from the dot com to pot bubble…..there’s still lots of money to be made even after missing the initial 1000% or more gains. The most recent example of that is tesla…no way I’d buy it when it hit $1500…made no sense fundamentally and technically had gone parabolic. Since then they did a 4 for 1 split and stock has gone over $700. Today’s young traders are not rational. Utilize stop losses properly and you can still make huge gains playing sectors that are overbought but still running higher cuz of the fomo trading fools ….only when they lose their shirts in a true bear market will things return to any resemblance of normal and that’s not happening any time soon with this Fed
We know fundamentals are gold positive and have been for years. What we don’t know is to what degree the Fed will interject themselves in the market and continue to disrupt “free markets”. I continue to fear hearing “maybe next year” which seems to always be a real possibility. Recently, I take profits as much as possible rather than ride them. I never did that in the past because I believed in fundamentals. That resulted in carry over losses. Last year I have a big tax bill coming. I guess that is better.
Agreed on the importance of taking profits along the way, as policies and events can change on a dime. Having said that I’m trying to do a better job of letting my winners run, and just trim back smaller amounts along the journey higher.
As for paying taxes, I’d rather trim profits regularly and amass much higher gains and pay taxes on those gains, than sit in a stock like a bump on pickle and watch it do a round trip or worse turn into a loss. Most of the really early stage explorers are like lottery tickets, and when they pop up 3-10 times your investment, it is wise to pull off some or most of the winnings and redeploy in the next opportunity. Yes, you’ll pay taxes on that gain, but it beats the crap out of sitting in a general index fund all year for 15-30% gain.
I have a friend who is a multi-millionaire real estate investors that always tells me he hopes to pay millions in taxes each year, because it means he had a really good year in business. 🙂
I know…I know…Can’t pay taxes if you don’t have a gain. Just like to find different ways to bash the Fed. :).
That’s the one thing I love up here in Canada. The tax free savings account allows us Canadians to invest and make money without paying taxes. If Trudeau tries to take that away from us his days are numbered
Wolf, I’ve often believed we are going to get hooped on the TFSA here in Canada. I figure they always wanted to encourage us Canadians to save more and their eyes have been glued on the financial pie sitting there.
Similar to our RSPs, we’re encouraged to save but eventually they’ll get a piece of that too via higher taxes, etc. Might even be a situation where those funds will get pulled from us. Most Cdns are not contributing, so when things get tighter and/or the system comes down, the majority wil not appreciate what the savers have been able to amass.
Now that I’m looking at a big tax bill, thanks in most part to posters on KER, I’m glad I did the right thing. Best wishes for prosperous 2021!
A sector that has been buffeted big time is the oil/gas sector. That’s an area I’m increasingly watching and slowly taking positions. I believe we have one more downturn in a lot of these stocks for a semi bottom and then I’m really going to get more aggressive. Commodities are also starting to stir.
Thanks for the oil/gas sector update, Doc.
Many a great comment seen in this particular section. It has made for a very insightful read. Thanks to everyone. Many perspectives, agreed upon or not are still appreciated from me personally. As a regular Joe in Australia, who knows what lies ahead for me in this increasingly chaotic, senseless world.
It seems to me the financial world got itself into a grand mess during the GFC. Throughout all the muddling, kneejerk reactions to this s*itfight, we are no closer to cleaning/sorting/resolving this mess. If anything it has gotten much worse. Subsequently, the waters are now muddied to an extent where fundamentals and rationale no longer apply. Burdening debt, incredibly low interest rates, “free” handouts, unrealistic demands in benefits are now commonplace. All fed (no pun intended) by money creation that is also accepted as the new norm. Ingrained into our way of thinking, MMT ( Modern Monetary Theory) is increasingly being pushed onto the masses. Austerity is now viewed as inhumane. The mere principal of debt obligation is fading into obscurity and with it so is financial responsibility. “Money for nothin and the chicks for free” to quote Dire Straits seems to be an apt line when one looks at todays world.
So many people now seem obsessed with making a quick buck that they are incessently chasing any asset/sector to fulfill this need. Unfortunately like an addiction, the thirst is never quenched and therefore remains ever elusive. It is never enough and we are never satisfied. We earn more dollars in attempt to chase more dollars. This mindset becomes a perpetual movement into slavery; “Slaves to the dollar”. Out of this, bubbles, inflation and down right rip-offs set in. Over inflated stock markets, bubble like real estate, cost of living on a tear, we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Against the backdrop of cheap money, this mindset ties right in perfectly with MMT. Just keep racking up the debt! I dont know, perhaps as an individual who isnt shackled by ridiculous amounts of debt, I just struggle to fathom a lifestyle that is beyond its means. No judgement to those who are burdened by debt because I understand life is full of curve balls. One cant know what has possibly taken place in anothers life. One thing I do know, the debt is never being paid back but who knows when it will all go south? Can kicking has become a great skill in todays world.
Very well stated Ozibatla. The debt of nations is never getting paid back.
Lets’ get ready to play “kick the can” down the financial road to ruin, to infinity and beyond.
Cheers Ex. To infinity and beyond indeed! An insane world becons.
End of The Road: How Money Became Worthless | Fiat Currencies Explained
Plot11 – Dec 8, 2020 #VIDEO
“Documentary on World Currencies, Dollars, Gold and Money: End Of The Road: How Money Became Worthless – Wall Street is being occupied. Europe is collapsing in on itself. Around the world, people are consumed by fear and anger, and one question is on everyone’s lips: Is the financial crisis over, or are we headed towards economic disaster? End of the Road is a documentary that chronicles the global financial collapse. Told in an entertaining and easy to follow style, the film tells the story of how the world came to be in such a state, from the seeds sown after WW2, to the current troubles facing us today, and to the possible future that may await us all. Some of the world’s top economic minds share the hidden tale behind the mishandling of the world’s finances, give insight into how bad policy and a flawed monetary system joined together to create a catastrophe, as well as sharing their own personal advice on how the average person can best prepare for their financial future.”
Lynette Zang: The Currency Reset Has Begun | Gold & Silver
I Love Prosperity – Dec 29, 2020
“In this video we talk with the one and only Lynette Zang – she breaks down the financial system, the impending monetary crash, the currency reset, gold, silver, precious metals, her predictions for the future & more…”
Metals Investor Forum (virtual) coming up on Jan 14-15 with 35 companies presenting. Sign up free at evenbrite.ca (I think). If that doesn’t work can check with Eric Coffin site on ceo.ca.
I just checked in on (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining — the little profitable Gold producer in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. Here is their latest Corporate Presentation:
Based on how well ANX did through Q3, I’m very interested to see how they did in Q4 with such elevated metals prices, which should round out a very positive year for Anaconda Mining.
Ex, ANX is another company I hold a large position in. There is not much negative about this company at present. It’s a solid producer with a good cash position and ongoing drilling that has a fairly low share count with no dilution on the horizon. Management appears very responsible with an approprate institutional share ownership. They”re in a great jurisdiction.There is consistent free cash flow. What’s not to like about the company.
Agreed on all points Doc.
Thanks for the links Ex.
10-4 good buddy.
2020 Annual Performance Line Chart for the Senior to Mid-Tier Silver Producers:
2020 Annual Performance Bar Chart for the Senior to Mid-Tier Silver Producers:
Pan American Silver Corp.
SSR Mining Inc.
Hecla Mining Company
First Majestic Silver Corp.
Coeur Mining, Inc.
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
Hochschild Mining plc
Silvercorp Metals Inc.
Endeavour Silver Corp.
Performance Bar Chart for the Senior to Mid-Tier Silver Producers off March sector low:
2020 Annual Performance Line Chart for the Mid-Tier to Junior Silver Producers:
Sierra Metals Inc.
GoGold Resources Inc.
Americas Gold and Silver Corporation
Great Panther Mining Limited
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Impact Silver Corp.
Excellon Resources Inc.
Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd.
Silver Bear Resources Plc.
2020 Annual Performance Bar Chart for the Mid-Tier to Junior Silver Producers:
Performance Bar Chart for the Mid-Tier to Junior Silver Producers off March sector low:
It’s an interesting chart Ex. The gains have been impressive. I realize that not having pulled the trigger at the low has caused me to miss out on potential gains.
When I look at your charting of performance of mid & junior producers, I wonder about investment options and think about whether it’s better to add into a Santacruz (for example), which has seen a 500+% increase since March, vs investing in an Excellon, which has seen a 30-odd % gain.
Though, I do hold both and have enjoyed much of the increase. I do believe those stocks all have much further to climb.
Ex, I said it before. You’ve been wise in trading in and out and having taken percentages of your winnings off the table to realize true gains. As well, that has contributed to your ability to remain more flexible and to take advantage of opportunities as they are presented in real time.
I have taken a more lazy (I will call it patient) approach and have been investing by way of longer term holding. My thesis has been that the PMs are going to head up as time moves forward.
Lately though, I am interested to see how the next year in the PM market plays out. I believe we will see two drops prior to an upward thrust, but, if I see another year of ups and downs, vs a general trend upward for all, then I may likely adjust a portion of my investment strategy to begin trading in and out of companies to take advantage of price fluctuations.
Also, to note, I have not been investing in the majors.
Thanks for the kind remarks Canuckski, and you raise a number of good points.
As far as trading in and out of stocks during a volatile market, or more common for me, trading around a core position by layering into and out of a stock in tranches, has been far more reward for many years (in bear and bull market alike), than just buying and holding. The caveat is that it takes a lot of work and more screen time reviewing technical and fundamental set ups, and it takes experience to learn to trust one’s judgment, make fast confident decisions, and be willing to reverse that trade very quickly as things change in the set up.
In my experience in private chats, or just reading other peoples trading experiences on many chat rooms (KER, to ceo.ca, stockhouse, hotcopper, youtube, twitter, seeking alpha, etc…), it is clear many people don’t have the temperament, training, nerves, or discipline to be an active trader. There are plenty of trades that anyone will get wrong, and some investors just don’t handle that experience well, expecting perfection .
The truth is most great traders are going to be wrong 40-45% of the time, some even more often, but the difference is that they really capitalize on their gains, and cut their losses quickly to limit downside. As an example, if an active trader can limit their downside losses to 20%-40%, but let their gains run 50%-500%, then they’ll outperform just sitting in a stock that maybe only went up 60%-100% on the year.
For me personally, there are different approaches to take with different stocks depending on their liquidity and volatility. If it is very thinly traded stock, that doesn’t have much volatility, I may buy in 2-3 tranches and just treat is as a buy and hold investment, and let it reach it’s key milestones or have the ounces in the ground outperform the rise in the metals prices. However, if it is a more liquid stock that oscillates wildly I may trade it a dozen or more times during the year.
For example, even though (USAS) Americas Gold and Silver didn’t perform nearly as well as most silver/gold producers in 2020, I had about 25 buys & sells on the stock and greatly outperformed if I just would have held it steady all year. In (SVM) Silvercorp I had 38 buys and sells last year. In (AXU) Alexco I had 31 buys and sells in 2020. There were times where I’d scalp a partial gain at let’s say 30%, watch the stock correct back down over 20%, buy it right back, watch it go up 40% sell it, watch it pull back 20%, add a layer, watch it pull back down 15% more and add a larger layer, watch it surge 25% take off part, etc…. All while the core position (maybe 40%-60% of the position that isn’t be traded) just rides the larger macro trend. That kind of trading requires analyzing the chart setup and any breaking fundamental news or sentiment quickly, taking action, and being willing to capitalize on a winning strategy longer than is comfortable, and either cut a loss or average down quickly if one’s trade was premature.
This is more difficult to do in a bear market, as one really needs to look for solid turns from a corrective move into a bullish reversal, and often needs to trim a bullish bounce quick quickly (maybe only 2-3 days or just a week). The 2011 – 2015 bear market was great training for learning these skillsets in a tough market. However, when the 2016 bull leg hit, and I bought low and did fantastic riding socks higher for 8 months, it was still from the defensive trading style playbook. My buys were not with enough weighting or conviction, and I trimmed profits too early, always expecting the rug to be pulled out from underneath like it had the whole bull market. This hurt my overall potential gains due to not buying enough, and selling too early, because I wasn’t prepared for the exaggerations to the upside on a bull market and bear market ptsd.
So over 2017 & 2018 I worked on letting gains run a bit more, but gradually got more defensive again, as it was a sideways to down market, so I scalped gains where I could, and mostly averaged into any losses. When sentiment was quite low in the Fall of 2018 I decided to accumulate my favorites in a bigger way.
In 2019, most of us here at the KER (and technicians on twitter and over at ceo.ca) were convinced we were going to break above the 2016 peaks into a new impulse leg higher in the bull cycle, so I didn’t want to repeat my mistakes from 2016. I added to most of my core positions bringing them to a full weighting, even using leverage going into the spring & summer of 2019, because of how strong the conviction was that if we were really still in the bull market that we needed to make news highs.
When those 2019 gains came in I let the chart indicators get hotter and stay overbought longer than I would in a bear market, and considered corrective moves oversold at higher levels than I would in a bear market (and this was the toughest part for me to get used to, after so many years in a defensive bear market). That is the same process I took in 2020, letting things stay overbought longer, and buying when they weren’t as oversold as I thought they should be. The obvious exception was from late Feb through April during the initial pandemic crash across all sectors.
So in general, in a bull market, the rule of thumb is that corrections don’t last as long or go as deep as most expect. So when the selloff began in late Feb into a corrective move I waited and jumped in a bit too early in early March for this very reason. When the selloff accelerated downward into mid-March, I was sweating bullets, but bought with everything I had left, and even moved over a bit of deep savings to add because I felt it was such an opportunity. I even did some portolio cleanup, and sold a number of other specialty metal and zinc sector positions and old gold dogs to put everything into the most liquid Gold & Silver stocks that I felt had to come back higher, along with my favorit Uranium & Copper stocks. My thinking was if we are still in a bull market, then even a pandemic correction would be shorter than most expected (although it was much deeper than I and most expected it would be). As a result, many of those positions ran 2-3 even 4-5 times higher out of those March lows.
I also remember that was not a popular idea at the time as many were selling in March and cowering in cash at exactly the wrong time to be doing that. There were times I posted about buying with both hands and joking about looking for seat cushions for any loose change I could throw at the market, and a few times here, but really over at ceo.ca some people wrote saying that they thought buying in March during a pandemic was dangerous. One person in a private chat even chastised me for being wreckless in discussing adding stocks during a global crisis. I responded back that is precisely the time I want to buy like gangbusters, and reminded them of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, when everyone thought the world was ending. They said that was different. I replied, it was but it really wasn’t. The 2000 dot com bubble pop into a crash, the 1987 crash on Black Monday, the 1929 great depression (and 1-2 years afterwards), were all incredibly scary times for investors, and great times to buy during the carnage. I responded that a global pandemic with people locked down in their homes and businesses closed was the epitome of carnage and blood in the streets, with most stocks down 30-60%. While many were stunned into analysis paralysis, and some were selling way too much, I was trying summon all the buying power I could, and it was physically a bit scary, but mentally I knew it was the right thing to do, with the underlying thesis of a larger bull market still underway. My wife even questioned if I should just sit it out and watch to see what happened, and I sat down and showed her charts from past crises and asked if she’d buy stocks there, and she said no way, and then I’d show the rest of the chart and how it rocketed back with a vengeance in each case. It was a lonely and somewhat isolated feeling, because when I would tell my friends, I was stuck to the screen trading for hours each day, they all said they wouldn’t want to touch the markets with a 10-foot pole, and that just fueled my inner contrarian even more, and decided either I was crazy and taking way too much risk, or I was buying low when the assets were unloved. Clearly it turned out to be the latter, and those unloved assets found love as the markets rocketed back up from insanely oversold conditions.
As the stocks started to move higher in late March, April, May I had to resist the urge to sell entire positions, only allowing small 15-33% trims, and then whenever those stocks would do a small correction, I’d buy those positions back at a better cost basis. Again, I didn’t get all those trades correct, and made a number of technical analysis and fundamental analysis mistakes, but I got far more right that wrong and had my best trading year ever. My account has been making new highs, ever few days for the last few weeks even in this sideways metals market, through executing a few good trades ever day, and it helped that the Copper, Zinc, Nickel, PGM, Uranium, and Lithium stocks also all rallied, as they were a drag in my account in 2018 and 2019, but a real boost to it in 2020.
As for the year to come in 2021, it will be more of the same = Opportunity mixed with Difficulty. My thesis is that we are still moving higher in the PM and commodities bull markets, and while there may be 1 or 2 ugly market crashes in the cards, they should still be bought, and if things run too hot for too long, profits should be banked.
Even stocks like Santacruz, that you mentioned, that have run 500% of their March lows still can rise multiple-fold from here as Silver prices continue to rise, and their costs continue to come down.
Keep in mind that Santacruz had some of the best performance back to back in both 2019 (where it outperformed the percentage gains of all the other producers from trough to peak), just like it did again in 2020, because it was the most oversold on the longer term charts, had the smallest market cap, had the biggest increase in margins while metals prices rose, and SCZ had the most fundamental improvement in bringing down their costs. This is precisely why Santacruz outperformed the other Silver producers 2 years in a row. Having said that, I feel that they are getting closer to a more fair valuation with their peers but they still have room to run to get their market cap up closer to Excellon, Impact, Avino, and Aya.
Endeavour and GoGold did really well for the exact same reasons of reducing higher costs, improving margins, improving production, and had nice pops as a result.
As for Excellon they didn’t bring down their costs as much, acquired a gold project, and acquired and unproven Silver district in Germany, and confused the market with their strategy, instead of hunkering down and increasing production, so they underperformed. Now if they hit big in Silver City Germany, or can figure out a way to bring their Otis Gold takeover Kilgore gold project into production, (without diluting the crap out of existing shareholders), then they may have a much bigger run in 2021 or 2022. They also could benefit from Evolucion getting into to production, where they have a mill, then that could be a big value driver. Excellon was actually toll milling ore for Hecla’s San Sebastian Mine in 2018 & 2019 at Evolucion, so I’d prefer to see them process their own ore there. The EXN team did do a lot of good exploration work the last 2 years, but most drill junkies aren’t watching because they are a small silver producer, and it wasn’t enough that they are able to mine Evolucion yet and take advantage of the higher Silver prices.
Canuckski, in general I think you raise a good point though that some of the companies that have been on a tear in 2019 and 2020 may not run quite as hard this year, and other companies that were more stagnant, may get their moment in the sun in 2021. Thank goodness that not every stock rerates at the same time, and their is a lag between when companies do the hard work to make improvement to when the market finally gives them credit for it. USAS Americas Silver is another laggard from 2020 that had challenges to overcome, that I expect to do much better in 2021, similar to MUX McEwen in the gold space.
Oops… that was a longer response than I realized it was.
Just one more thing, that I felt needed reiterating – Most investors are better off in a bull market being buy and hold investors, so they don’t get stuck chasing things higher (or worse sitting it out on the sidelines when they refuse to buy on the way up).
There are definite advantages to actively managing a portfolio of stocks, following fundamental newsflow and corporate updates carefully, and moving in and out of volatile miners in partial tranches, but it is definitely not for everyone, and needs to be monitored more closely. The other pitfall is often times, people will overtrade a position, and reduce down or sell a position before a large run, and while they may have made profits (always a good thing), it seems to sting worse to see profits you could have made play out, as one kicks themself in the rear-end. However, personally, I feel the worst sting is holding a losing position and refusing to sell because one has fallen in love with a position, or buying and holding and watching a stock go up 3 times, 5 times, 10 times, only to watch it do a return trip all the way back down to where one bought it. A responsive active trader would not let that happen, and at one point (or more likely at several points) would have pulled some profits out while they were there.
I rambling again, but the main point is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with being a value investor and buying and holding during bull market. Even better are value investors that buy on dips averaging into a larger position in bull markets. That strategy often will do better for many investors in a bull market (but is deadly in a bear market).
Regardless of everyone’s unique trading strategy and styles, may the good folks at the KER have a fantastic year in the markets in 2021!
Thanks for your time again Ex.
It’s funny when I think back to some of my first investments in the market. I traded in and out of one particular company for a few years while attending university. I would call in to hear the stock quote and then call my broker. Each trade would occur every 4 weeks approx. and I would clear $300. Not bad for a student.
As a note of interest, I did have the opportunity to get some paper for my wall when I studied at both the the New York Institute of Finance as well as the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. I recall that a couple of the key traders lost everything during the crash of 87. And, I do mean everything. So, you’re right in that not everyone can time the market 100% of the time.
2020 Annual Performance Line Chart for the Silver Developers:
(I was unable to get Vangold mining to work in Stockcharts – maybe due to halt)
2020 Annual Performance Bar Chart for the Silver Developers:
Performance Bar Chart for the Silver Developers off March sector low:
Rare Opportunity for A World-Class Silver Discovery with Tier One Metals’ Chairman Ivan Bebek
“Tier One Metals is a precious metals exploration company that was spun out from Auryn Resources on October 9, 2020. Tier One Metals is currently an unlisted reporting issuer that will be seeking listings in Q1. The Company is focused on creating significant value for shareholders through the exploration and potential discovery of world-class silver, gold and copper deposits in southwest Peru. Tier One is actively planning to complement its existing strong property portfolio through additional precious metal acquisitions in Peru, leveraging off its in-country experienced personnel teams.”
I’ve been watching that non listing on my portfolio since I own some of that company.
Yes. Me too Doc. They are looking to getting it listed in the first quarter.
THE 20s MIGHT BE A REPEAT OF THE 1920s
Looking at the graphs in this article:
it seems to me prettyobvious gold price suppression is occuring.
The PMs at this time are not cooperating with the falling dollar.
The Buffalo Bills are walloping The Miami Dolphins at half time 28 t0 6. GO BILLS GO! DT
Agree. Nice to see the bills doing so well after such a long drought. I grew up in WNY and still route for them.
I don’t follow football these days but I did catch the greatest comeback in history live 28 years ago! It still seems impossible and is worth watching in its entirety if you haven’t (and I’m sure you and most real Bills fans have!):
Matthew, why do you want to torture an old Oiler fan? Joe Montana led Notre Dame to an equally great comeback vs. U of Houston in the Cotton Bowl. To me the greatest game ever was the Big Shootout 12-6-69 between the #1 Longhorns and the #2 Razorbacks. You can see it on YouTube with Bud Wilkinson calling the game.Nixon presented the national championship trophy after the game in the locker room.
For those who didn’t notice, SILJ just had its best weekly close in 4 years, 4.5 months:
Platinum………best up tick in price…, after hours in 10 yrs….. 🙂
$1923…..again…..Gold looking good…..
platinum were attempting to breakout, overnight and this morning they are exploding higher
Oh, Glenfish….. 🙂
On December 31, 2020 at 8:53 am,
OOTB Jerry says:
Hot tip of the week…….watch Platinum….
On December 31, 2020 at 11:33 am,
Platinum noted Jerry 🙂
Great call Jerry! 😀
Thanks……beginner’s luck…. 🙂
Gold up looks good, but on my screen it gapped up. I wonder if it has to come down to fill that gap.
My shares will mess themselves if it does.
Seems like the increase is holding, I have my fingers crossed.
Dang, gold & silver up big! Is that because Nancy Pelosi back in the saddle again? Where’s the fresh meat?
Nice. Silver futures price is at $27.47 at present.
Wedge. Possible Gartley Pattern?
Three drives to the top retest.
I wonder if gold being up about $50 US is enough to have a positive open in the miners. I am waiting in anticipation of a green day.
Hah…Jamie Dimon late to work….miners up
35% walk back since open. New Year but old algos. Dumping naked contracts primarily in the paper silver markets. CFTC still asleep at the wheel.
50% walk back in my miners plus a never ending dump on platinum taking negative. I am sure that some disgruntled platinum owner felt this was time to dump untold # of shares without intervening green candles. Sure…
Hmm David, I’m just now getting around to reviewing today’s trading, but my bloated portfolio of 100 miners is up over 4% today, and making a new all time high, like it has been every 2-3 days for the last few weeks.
As for the platinum miners, mine are flat to up today with gains in Generation Mining, Group Ten, Platinum Group Metals, and Jubiliee Platinum. I actually see a number of green candles today on my screen, but that’s what makes a market.
My portfolio typically outperforms the indexes, especially if I isolate the Gold and Silver stocks I hold from the other sectors and then compare those to the ETFs, which I haven’t done today, but just point out that GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ are all up nicely today above 6%+
Yeah, my portfolio is up + 3.5% @ 1:30 CST. My talk about walk back, refers to the walk back after open. It has been traditional for years.. . automatic like clock work. Took some Pure Gold profits and added back Sailfish and Nomad. (Weekendiscussions). Added to Group Ten and Baru. Then took some Santacruz profits and added Cabral back after Dave Kranzler interview where he said his picks for 2021 are Blackrock and Cabral. Discovery best $ performer of the day and Baru and DeGrey best %. Today is more fun than when miners go down. Not a fan if down.
+4%. With 30 mins left.
Thanks for that update David. That is good that your account ended in the green.
Yes, I’ve heard a bit more chatter about Cabral Gold, and respect David Kranzler’s knowledge in the Jr Miners, and already own Blackrock Gold, so I’ll check out Cabral.
I don’t like the copper chart, bigger pullback coming?
Any pro opinions?
CV has never owned any of his miss calls. Nothing wrong with pointing it out Ex as long as it is in a positive manner
I haven’t looked at CV lately but doesn’t he cover ETFs rather than individual stocks? Sprott used to like him before he went quiet. I don’t know but just popped into my head.
It is fine to mention that a technician had some missed calls, as all technicians have, but people up above were straight up bashing him and calling him “a fraud posing as a guru” that he was a “terrible technician” “not worth listening to unless you had nothing better to do” and implied that he was not “transparent”.
CV comes on regularly to share his analysis, and he’s also been right on many longer term areas in gold, oil, and currencies over many years. He has missed some short term calls, again like all technicians have, but to crucify one of the weekend guests and dogpile on him is a bit over the top.
CV and all Cory’s guests, as well as all our posters, know a hell of a lot more than I do. I appreciate everyone’s input. Now, if we just had the head of the CFTC or Justice Department as a poster so you guys could educate them…
Good luck passing that test broski. 😉
Write a monster piece Only to find out that it was not posted who knows maybe I press the wrong button. I wanna thank ex for all his contributions and all his posts in the last few days I’ve been reading them I’ve just taken a few days off fantastic work my friend. Thank you for sharing all the companies once again and for adding a few platinum and copper plays. As you know I personally have a small per folio not too large but I always keep in consideration all the companies that you send our way so thank you.
Wolf fantastic piece and thank you for coming out of your bubble and sharing all that information with us I knew you had a lot of stuff stored in LOL. Please keep contributing you are the king of warrants as I’ve said in the past and a leader in the pot sector you got on board early so I value the companies your post in regards to that as well. Keep up the great work
Canuksi you blew me away with all your information you have more knowledge than I imagined but that’s only because you don’t post much so I’m glad that you are keep posting my good friend you made very valid points in regards to selling and locking in profits when speaking to ex. I plan to this time around sell my short positions into the rise that will be coming something I did not do previously my longs continue intact.
Thanks again to other contributors in here and for all the fine post I’ve been reading Jerry you’re the leader of the forefront here and Matthew thanks for all the charts as always everyone else keep up the great work let’s have a great new year 2021.
Thanks for you input Glenfidish, and that is sad the longer post didn’t make it. I’ve done the same thing many times and it is so disheartening to take a lot of time on a post and then see it doesn’t get posted for a technical reason. I’ve gotten in the habit of copying the verbiage inside the post before I hit submit for just this reason, and then I can easily paste it back in a new post if there is an issue at submittal.
I agree with you about the other great contributors you mentioned here at the KER, and learn from them all every week. (including you maestro) Ever Upward!
You da man……Glen…..Ex ain’t to bad either….. lol 🙂
I will say one thing for Ex…..he was spot on with the bitcon……I watched Keiser the other day….He had some great thoughts on the bitcon going forward.
Thanks for the mention OOTB. I just call em’ like I see em’. 🙂
You mentioned catching Max Keiser the other day. Did you catch this show where they unpack that Bitcoin has multiplied, like gold should multiplied, if it wasn’t for the derivatives markets making 100 claims on 1 ounce of gold? Their perspective is that paper Gold, which most of the market trades and focuses on, is still part of the financial system control, but the decentralized crypto is still outside of that system… for now.
It was an interesting point and perspective.
Orange Pill [OP22] – The Hierarchy of the Balance Sheets
Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss:
– With gold, you can’t exit the system because they own it
– Escaping the self-pity
– Get prepared for good times
– Warning of the new promise coming for the Great Reset:
I caught Max with …Daniela Cambone on Dec 23…
Thanks for the note Glenfidish.
I, too, read all comments on this site.
So, I’ll share a bit about myself… I have typically practised an approach of listening to others, especially the ones I feel should be respected as experts.
That being said, I’ve also found there’s a difference amongst experts. As we can see from the commentators on this site as well as the guests. Each one is entitled to share. I, for one, have seen many so-called experts drop the ball. I’m ok with that as long as they can admit it. I find very few will admit being wrong, but rather will b.s. a different storyline months later. To me, that reduces my trust in the person and tarnishes his credibility.
I completed an Economics degree as well as a Commerce degree in Canada. A group of close university buddies dreamed of being professional market players. When we graduated, one of my first job offers was to work on Wall Street. My other friends followed their dreams and became pros within the world financial markets and currently work in London, Tokyo, Toronto, Bermuda, and NYC.
Interestingly, my close friend in Bermuda only handles clients who can boast accounts of $1M+ (maybe you, Matthew and doc know him 🙂 ). When he and I talk about investment strategies, he is not interested in big wins for his clients, but rather he’s interested in maintaining a certain percentage growth of returns.
While I’m a Canadian and live in Canada, I did also attend an American University where I graduated top of my MBA class.
I’m also a CPA, so when I have the opportunity to catch up with my accounting colleagues, I ask them what are the rich guys doing with their money. Not as many of them are into the market as I (or you) might have thought.
My investment portfolio continues to hold a few special performers. For example, I hold Constantine Metals. This one has kicked upward quite well and then has headed back down. Being a longer term holder, for better or worse, has enabled me to experience the up and down joys of the market. I anticipate all will move up when the time comes. The key will be to cash out much of the winnings before the mines are all nationalized.
Thank you for contributing here Glen.
Canuckski – Great comments and thanks for sharing your interesting background. It is fantastic to have a community of sharp investors all sharing ideas from different perspectives with one another.
Thank you for sharing a little about yourself. I know it can take plenty for some to come out and share as per privacy for some. So thank you once again. From what I gather, your a smart dude surrounded by smart people. You have every tool in the world to be a successful trader/investor and I wish you the best. I’ve always said that in order to be more in the winning side, you must have endured the rock bottom. I’ve been there and im glad I did. I never want to go back..
All the best my friend
(MUX) McEwen Mining completes Fenix feasibility study
Dec. 31, 2020
> “McEwen Mining unveils a positive feasibility study for its 100%-owned Fenix project in Mexico, which envisions a 9.5-year mine life with a 28% after-tax internal rate of return using $1,500/oz. gold and $17/oz. silver.”
> “The feasibility envisions average annual production of 26K oz. gold in phase 1 (years 1-6) and 4.2M silver equiv. oz. in phase 2 (years 7-9.5).”
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYBODY
wish everybody and the KER team all the best for 2021