2021 Outlook For Gold

January 7, 2021

Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report joins me to share some details on his Macrocast outlook for Gold in 2021. This post is only available to subscribers on Craig’s site but he will be making it live for non-subscribers early next week.

We spend a lot of time discussing the key drivers for the precious metals that will last throughout the year. These include Fed policy, inflation data, and movements in yields.

Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report

    Jan 07, 2021 07:18 PM

    Thank you. Craig always makes me feel like he’s on my side!

      Jan 08, 2021 08:42 AM

      +1 It is always nice to hear Craig’s insights on the Precious Metals and his take on the macro economics outlook.

        Jan 08, 2021 08:25 AM

        Why gold price is down despite Georgia Runoffs result – Gary Wagner

        Kitco News – Jan 6, 2021

          Jan 08, 2021 08:10 AM

          What we have been seeing for the last 15 years is intervention by The Central Banks in the stock market and the gold market. Bitcoin isn’t on the radar machine because The Central Banks are never going to allow a cryptocurrency to exist if they aren’t in control, Bitcoin will be squashed when the bankers or the market feel it is time. The traders invested in electronic currency are going to meet their Waterloo, and so will The Bankers, you can’t artificially control the means of wealth only the markets can. Bitcoin is in an unregulated bubble that will soon come crashing down, and The Central Banks are manipulating everything else that has got them trapped and they know it, the only way out is for the system to correct like 1929. Stay tuned the prices are at a pinnacle and the madness of 2021 is really insanity. DT

            Jan 08, 2021 08:25 AM

            Things are definitely going parabolic in Bitcoin. I’ve closed out my trade earlier this week in GBTC for just under a triple overall, but am still watching the crypto markets evolve on a daily basis. Yes, 2021 is already starting off to be a wild ride!

          Jan 08, 2021 08:56 AM

          I see it all the time, the new economy is creating jobs it’s dumpster divers with bundle buggies and shopping carts and tents in public parks, Canada has embraced the new reality but it is not discussed because it’s not politically correct. DT

            Jan 08, 2021 08:11 AM

            Once the government handouts stop and the social safety net can’t be paid for anymore, the lineups will start forming outside, only this time the populace won’t be like the 1930’s when people were more obedient. DT

            Jan 08, 2021 08:17 AM

            Yes, this time the bread & soup lines may get a bit more unruly than depression era lines, as the people are getting restless after being locked down all year, while having their financial lives crushed by government policy. We haven’t seen the other shoe drop yet regarding the fallout from all the businesses being closed and so many out of work. There are storm clouds gathering on the horizon…

    Jan 07, 2021 07:29 PM

    Bitcoin discussion on cnbc…..

      Jan 08, 2021 08:40 AM

      Dan Morehead: The Next Phase of the Crypto Bull Market (w/ Raoul Pal)

      Real Vision Finance – Jan 6, 2020

      “Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant.”

        Jan 08, 2021 08:54 AM

        I may have to revise my $50K call for bitcoin to the end of January 2021 now…….I wish I had just bought it instead of playing a digital bank/platform…..I thought I’d be playing it smarter as the platform makes money on number of transactions which obviously are going up as bitcoin does and brings in more traders(suckers???) and even makes money when they all bail……never considered bitcoin would replace gold as the go to but am starting to question that….maybe millennials prefer digital over physical

          Jan 08, 2021 08:26 AM

          Good comments Wolfster.

          Yes, the ascent of Bitcoin lover the last half year has been stunning. As mentioned yesterday, on the Jordan Roy-Byrne blog, I got positioned in GBTC from August – October, and recently finished selling out of that position in tranches. Of course it’s ripped even higher the last 2 days so yeah it will be interesting where it decides to finally pause as it is waaaay over its 21 day and 55 day EMA, and just rocketing higher and higher, in a bit parabolic move.

          I almost bought back into the crypto miners (like Hive, Riot, and Bitfarms) in the fall of last year and considered a few blockchain ideas (which would have been the far better choice). I was getting ready to put the house on the market, sell it, and move cross country and wasn’t going to have the time to be glued to the screen, so I just opted for GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, because I didn’t want to actually buy Bitcoin, and felt having it as a proxy would still catch the price move. I got a bit less than a triple on the position, but have sold out now, and as mentioned on the yesterday’s Jordan blog, likely left some money on the table… but was glad to have profited from the move in Bitcoin and not passed on it.

            Jan 08, 2021 08:32 AM

            I just checked and Bitcoin is now trading at $41,300. Wow! What a freakin’ run higher. The last 2 months it just gone full on beast mode higher.


            Jan 08, 2021 08:35 AM

            Just for a frame of reference, Bitcoin was trading in the $10,000’s back in September, and now it’s breached the $40,000 mark. That’s a significant increase in overall Market Cap, now currently valued at $769 Billion.

            Jan 08, 2021 08:46 AM

            Wolfster, as your comment about Bitcoin replacing Gold, which many analysts agree with, I personally don’t see that happening. Gold and Bitcoin are different assets, with different types of investors, but they do have some overlap in the appeal for diversifying out of the fiat currencies, and as a store of value & hedge to the financial shenanigans carried out by world governments and central bankers.

            There will always be individual investors of Gold, and central bankers buying gold, but we’ll also begin to see more demand as the larger institutions and funds start rotating out of the Bond bubble and into Gold over the next 3-5 years.

            There isn’t anything wrong with having an allocation to both asset classes, and have exposure to both the Precious Metals sector and to Bitcoin and the crypto sector. They aren’t mutually exclusive and don’t have to be held at the same levels of investment, so anyone can find their own ratio, but some will elect to go binary and just position in one sector or the other, and that’s fine too. To each their own…

          Jan 08, 2021 08:49 AM

          Wolfster – What was the name of that digital bank/platform you were mentioning?

          It sounds interesting. Thanks!

            Jan 08, 2021 08:05 AM

            Hey Ex. It’s voyager digital. Trades on the cse.VYGR is the symbol. Had a nice run already but certainly hasn’t kept pace with bitcoin itself recently

            Jan 08, 2021 08:10 AM

            Much appreciated Wolfster. I still want to check it out, and appreciate the heads up on VYGR.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:21 AM

      Understanding Bitcoin | Mitch Garber – Pomp Podcast #464

      Anthony Pompliano – Jan 6, 2021

      “This is an episode of The Pomp Podcast with host Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano and guest, Mitch Garber. He was previously the CEO of Caesars Interactive Entertainment and has served on the Board of Directors of Cirque du Soleil, Caesars Entertainment, RackSpace, Shutterfly and many others.”

      “In this conversation, we discuss Mitch’s numerous business successes, how he currently invests his capital, and then we dive deep into his questions around Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.”

    Jan 08, 2021 08:43 AM

    (AXU) (AXR) Alexco Resources: Finally, Graduating To Producer Status

    Jan. 07, 2021 – T.D. Seeking Alpha

    > Alexco Resources restarted production at the Keno Hill Silver District in Q4, a high-grade silver district that operated for nearly a century in the Yukon.

    > Based on the most recent economic study, the project is expected to produce 4 million ounces of silver per year over an 8-year mine life at industry-leading costs.

    > With a dearth of primary silver deposits out there in Tier-1 jurisdictions, Alexco will be a rarity in the sector once it achieves full capacity in Q2.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:54 AM

      Aurcana is another Silver developer that is getting ready to go into production that I’ve done well on over the last year and half. I started acquiring the position back in late August 2019, after taking many years off.

      Their old team and valuation (from the last cycle) had imploded during the bear market, and after the company had hit rock bottom, reorganized, spent a few years restructuring. Next they brought on a new team, acquired a new quality flagship asset, and have completely rebuilt the company into the highest grade silver mine about to go back into production. I’ve added a few more tranches to Aurcana in 2020, and it had nice performance in the portfolio, also providing a number of good swing trades around the core position to scalp gains.

      This latest interview presentation was a pretty good update on Aurcana for those interested in advanced Silver Developers moving into production this year.

      High-Grade Silver Production in 2021:
      (AUN) (AUNFF) Aurcana Silver Update with CEO Kevin Drover & COO Brian Briggs

      MiningStockEducation – Jan 4, 2021 #AudioInterview

      “Aurcana Silver Corp. has 100% ownership of the world’s highest-grade silver mine (P&P): the Revenue-Virginius mine in Ouray, Colorado, USA. This fully-permitted mine will also be one of the lowest-cost silver producers in the world at only US$8/oz Ag (AISC) after byproduct credits. In this interview CEO Kevin Drover and COO Brian Briggs discuss the company’s progress and provide an update on initial silver production which will occur this year.”

        Jan 08, 2021 08:35 AM

        Bayhorse Silver is another US Silver Developer that is advancing towards production, and it also has a Gold exploration project in Canada. This recent news of the offtake agreement that Bayhorse released was a nice milestone on their journey towards production, using similar ore-sorting technology that we were discussing over on the Novo Resources blog. I had mentioned adding more to my Bayhorse position in mid-December, and picked it for the 2021 stock picking contest over at We’ll see how it goes in 2021.


        (BHS) (KXPLF) Bayhorse Silver Announces Offtake Purchase Offer

        @newsfile on 1 Dec 2020

        “This offtake supply PO is a milestone achievement for the Company and demonstrates confidence in the Company’s ability to transition from development to commercial operations,” states Graeme O’Neill, CEO of Bayhorse. “The Company looks forward to achieving its production targets and congratulates our team for this achievement.”

      Jan 08, 2021 08:31 AM

      Speaking of these Silver developers and near term producers I added to my Alexco and Aurcana positions today into the sector weakness.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:28 AM

    Dave Kranzler: What To Expect In Gold & Silver In 2021

    Arcadia Economics – Dec 31, 2021 #VIDEO Interview

      Jan 08, 2021 08:34 AM

      2021 Mining Stock Picks & Reviewing Some 2020 Picks with Dave Kranzler

      MiningStockEducation – Jan 4, 2021 #AudioInterview

      Dave Kranzler is the editor of the Mining Stock Journal and returns to the program to review some of his 2020 mining stock picks as well as share some 2021 mining stock picks. Dave holds an MBA from the University of Chicago with a concentration in accounting and finance. Over the years he has worked in various analytic and trading jobs on Wall Street. For nine years of those years he traded junk bonds for a large bank. For the past 16 years, Dave has been an avid student of the precious metals markets and steadfast proponent of holding physical gold and silver in one’s portfolio. Currently, he co-manages a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver. Dave’s stated goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy.

      0:00 Introduction
      0:45 2020 mining stock pick disappointment #1 (Gatling Exploration)
      4:55 “I was wrong about being wrong”
      6:11 2020 mining stock pick disappointment #2 (Bonterra Resources)
      10:44 2020 mining stock winner #1 (Discovery Metals)
      16:34 2020 mining stock winner #2 (GR Silver)
      20:31 2021 mining stock pick #1 (Blackrock Gold)
      27:05 2021 mining stock pick #2 (Cabral Gold)

    Jan 08, 2021 08:45 AM

    Finding Value in Today’s Resource Sector with Broker Sam Broom

    MiningStockEducation – Jan 7, 2021 #VIDEO Interview

    “Sam Broom is a geologically-trained investment executive with Sprott Global. In this interview, Sam provides commentary on where he sees value in the resource sector and how he is advising his clients. He discusses commodities he is bullish on other than gold and shares key risks for resource investors in 2021. Sam also offers insights on lithium stocks and niche metal markets.”

    Jan 08, 2021 08:46 AM

    It is interesting to note that Palladium has been on a tear for years, bottoming in early Jan 2016 around $495 and and closing today at $2418. That’s a big move Palladium has made, as one of the lessor followed industrial metals, and as we’ve discussed on here a number of times, Platinum has also been on the move up again.

    > Special thanks to OOTB Jerry as one of the few that has kept the Platinum discussion top of mind here on KE Report.

    Some of the PGM mining stocks (like Platinum Group Metals, Jubilee Metals, Sylvania Platinum, Group Ten Metals, Grid Metals, Generation Mining, and New Age Metals) have really performed well over the last few months, and that has been encouraging to see in this small sector.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:17 AM

      THANK YOU KIND SIR…….for your acknowledgement…. 🙂

        Jan 08, 2021 08:20 AM

        Sorry for the delay….. just been busy….going over some old info…on the political scene… 🙂

        Jan 08, 2021 08:21 AM

        Ah… but of course sir OOTB. I’ve appreciated that you keep the Platinum discussion on the roster of topics here on the KER, and agree that platinum still has more room to run to catch up to the moves higher we’ve seen in Gold and Palladium. For the longest time it traded at a premium to both of those metals.

          Jan 08, 2021 08:10 AM

          Ditto……..You are spot on concerning the premiums…… gold…

            Jan 08, 2021 08:14 AM

            OOTB – do you think we’ll see Platinum trade at a premium to Palladium or Gold again in the next year or 2, or do you think it will continue to lag both in price?

            Jan 08, 2021 08:13 AM

            Ex……I think platinum is in the starting gate, ……
            I know one thing, you can not buy platinum coins, …like you can gold coins.
            Platinum coins are rare….in all sizes……just do a search at Apmex…
            you will see, ….very few offered…, go to any coin shop….rarely see any.

            Jan 08, 2021 08:39 AM

            EX…..I have questioned before, why, is palladium trading higher then platinum, …when in the past, it was reversed…..CFS, once offered a comment, …when we were having that discussion. I believe he said, because of
            the new technology in mufflers ….if, CFS, reads this ,he might repeat what he said…..I do not want to miss quote him.
            People familiar with auto emission , might want to answer the question.
            Platinum , before the last run up in gold, was always valued higher in jewelry….
            I think the Chinese still see it that way., at least a couple of years ago, they did..

            Jan 08, 2021 08:41 AM

            To add…………Bobby M……thought it was cheap last year..

            Jan 08, 2021 08:46 AM

            Last year… was $800 range…….today….$1100 range……looks like it can go higher …from looking at a long term cycles chart, …but, I am no expert in charting … 🙂

            Jan 08, 2021 08:07 PM

            Thanks for those comments OOTB. Yes, I remember Bob M pointing out that he felt Platinum was cheap and Palladium was more pricey, and agreed with that editorial on 321gold. In addition, I put my more money into PGM stocks..

            Platinum has increased some, but Palladium has also stayed elevated and the premium has stayed in Pd’s favor over Pt. Yes there is the cadyllitic converters in auto that drive both in gas and diesel respectively, and back when Platinum had the premium for years there was a replacement swap into Palladium. There may be the reverse substitution from Palladium back into Platinum if this relation between the 2 persists. Also platinum used in some batteries is growing as a demand factor.

            Yes, on the jewelry side Platinum rings used to have higher appraisals than gold rings, in a previous life when I was insuring them on personal articles insurance policies. For many years Platinum maintained a premium to Gold, but it’s the monetary qualities of Gold that have moved it far above where Platinum is on their pricing relationship.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:57 AM

    We are seeing some interesting looking pullbacks in the mining stocks today. I may nibble a tiny bit on some names I’ve been wanting to acquire or may have trimmed recently at higher levels.

    Good trading to the KER crew in the markets today.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:00 AM

      I’ve actually done more buying than expected today, adding to 7 positions so far, and probably will add to a few more positions before the end of the trading session, especially in some stocks with double digit declines. I also trimmed and outright sold a few profitable positions today to rotate into some stocks that now look like better opportunities during this dip.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:00 AM

      Sandstorm is back down below $9

        Jan 08, 2021 08:11 AM

        I follow the US price on Sandstorm via (SAND) but it back below $7.

        Sandstorm is a good example of buying value. For example if investors like SAND at $10.54, and felt it had a bright future and upside on their basket of 200 royalties, then how can that same investor not jump at the chance to buy it at $6.97?

        I love a good fire-sale in quality companies.

          Jan 08, 2021 08:54 AM

          Yep, I added more to my Sandstorm position today. I like the value proposition better the more it drops.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:32 AM

    MUX, refuse to go down (stop holding it up Matthew)

      Jan 08, 2021 08:10 AM

      Forgot the 🙂

        Jan 08, 2021 08:21 PM

        It must be pretty wrung-out because it normally falls sharply quite easily. My best price today was .9751 but my average so far is .6% higher. 😬

          Jan 08, 2021 08:52 PM

          Yes it must be, i hope it holds this level but if gold gaps down on monday…
          The IHS on Gold still look symmetrical, lets see.

        Jan 08, 2021 08:34 PM
          Jan 08, 2021 08:06 PM


    Jan 08, 2021 08:38 AM

    Gold still dropping, it looks if it breaks about 1825 it could drop to 1780.
    Didnt somebody here suggest that?

    And bitcoin hits 41k. The milenials will be getting a good laff at the boomers today. 😉

      Jan 08, 2021 08:56 AM

      Yep, Gold dropped down to $1839 just a wile ago, and I believe it was Doc or Jordan that mentioned the low $1800s may get hit, and that could lead to a drop down to $1780. This is creating a nice buying opportunity in the mining stocks today.

      Yes, Bitcoin was up to $41,949 earlier but has since pulled back to $41, 084. This has been a crazy move higher from the $10,000s in September to go up over 4 times in the last 4 months.

      There are a tone of crypto miners, blockchain companies, and related crypto stocks up 20%-60% There is some crazy action in this sector lately. Lately the gains those invested in the crypto miners have far exceeded the returns from investing in the metals miners.

        Jan 08, 2021 08:59 AM

        That didn’t come out correct after reading it again. It should have said:

        “There are a ton of crypto miners, blockchain companies, and related crypto stocks up 20%-60% just TODAY.”

        (Many are up 1000% – 2000%+ over the last few months)

      Jan 08, 2021 08:05 AM

      Silver back down with a $24 handle again.

      Silver futures at $24.88 at present, and down over 8% on the day. Now that is more of a significant move, instead of the daily noise we’ve been seeing lately.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:50 AM

    This is a daily chart……Please no hate mail…I see one more AB=CD down, around 30.45….That price area corresponds w the weekly charts TDemark9 breakout support low from 6/22/20 of 1.6 Billion vol w nicer oversold characteristics and time for a RSI and Slow Stoch divergence…..But, on da other hand…That may be a bridge too far…Requires a dollar bounce which looks soon to happen…GLTA…Do not construe this for investment advise I sure don’t……

    Jan 08, 2021 08:03 AM

    A complete backtest to the GDX breakout, could happen, not counting on it tho.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:34 AM

    (SMTS) (SMT) Sierra Metals Undertaking Strategic Process

    8 Jan 2021

    “Sierra Metals Inc. announces today that its Board of Directors, supported by its management team and with the full support of Arias Resource Capital Fund L.P., Arias Resource Capital Fund II L.P. (the Company’s two largest shareholders) and Arias Resource Capital Fund II (Mexico) L.P., has commenced a process to explore and evaluate potential strategic alternatives focused on maximizing shareholder value. These alternatives could include, among other things, the sale of part or all of the Company, a sale of some of the assets of the Company, a merger or other business combination with another party, or other strategic transactions. The Company has engaged CIBC World Markets Inc. to assist the Board of Directors in its review of strategic alternatives.”

      Jan 08, 2021 08:40 AM

      I’m not quite sure, based on this Friday news drop (normally not a great thing), if Sierra Metals is signaling they are going to get bought out, or if they are in trouble and liquidating assets to keep afloat, so I’ve liquidated my position in SMTS today.

      I have great gains, SMTS has been an awesome position to trade in tranches, while
      keeping a core position in place all of last year, but with so many fire sales in the market today, then my thoughts were to lock in profits and redeploy funds into some of the deals popping up all over the place today. I’m also holding funds back to continue to buy this dip if we see more selling pressure next week. The stock rotation is in full force today in my portfolio, with 13 trades so far.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:55 AM

    Did all the technical people miss the opportunity to sell?
    The only mention was myself wondering if the gap could get filled and Doc saying probobly.

    Lets see if we go down to 1780, that should be a great buying opportunity.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:24 AM

      I sold some marginable liquid stuff before the bell but have a massive drawdown on the rest (unrealized, to be clear), which is fine. I did buy a lot of Hecla at minus 10 to 12 percent and even some MUX, Brixton and Impact, among a couple others.
      I’m not calling a low here since I haven’t had time to look at all that I need to but it could be.
      HL fell to the important “P” on the daily chart, let’s see if it holds…

        Jan 08, 2021 08:29 AM

        I don’t know Mathew, those gaps below look like they might be filled. I own it like you but a bit afraid to add here. For sure will if the gaps get filled.

          Jan 08, 2021 08:41 AM

          Well you’re not wrong to worry about those gaps; that’s why we hate those suckers in general. However, every now and then we do get bonafide breakaway gaps and I think the odds are still good that the ones in question are just that.

      Jan 08, 2021 08:17 PM

      B – I mentioned the end of last week a few times that I had pulled profits in over a dozen names, and then mentioned this Mon & Tues that I had sold some other Precious Metals, base metals, and royalty positions. I wanted to raise funds to deploy on a rainy day, and we definitely got that today, and I mentioned doing 13 trades buying weakness to take advantage of the large declines in the miners.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:13 AM

    GLD fell precisely to “618” Fibonacci fan support and has speed line support nearby if it goes even lower:

    Jan 08, 2021 08:02 PM
    Jan 08, 2021 08:47 PM

    What did Bonzo buy today? More NULGF @9.9 cents. It closed @ 10.5 cents.Can’t wait for the assays to come back from the lab with news of an elephant in the Red Hills.

    Jan 08, 2021 08:36 PM

    Doubt we’ll be getting any good news soon. If they had good news, they would have put it out before announcing a new offering of 100M shares.