Typical Precious Metals Moves When Approaching Fed Meetings

January 19, 2021

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me to focus on the continued range bound gold price. We look ahead to the Fed meeting next week and outline how PM prices typically move around these meetings. This will be an especially interesting Fed meeting as it will be the first one with the new President.

Dave and I also discuss the broad junior market and continued fade in many stocks. He shares the type of stocks he likes during this correction.

click here to visit Dave’s site and keep up to date on the stocks he is buying and selling.

    Jan 19, 2021 19:31 PM

    All stimulus built in, next catalyst will be big profit taking in stock market due to more virus lockdowns and economy worries which will take miners down with it. Need washout in both mkts and then big stimulus and infrastructure spending that will cause the final parabolic top in stocks and metals will have a run to 2300 then another big fall with SM crash end of year then gold will start it’s bubble.

    Jan 19, 2021 19:46 PM

    Laurion drills 70.65 m of 3.9 g/t Au at Ishkoday
    2021-01-19 13:09 ET – News Release
    Ms. Cynthia Le Sueur-Aquin reports

    Jan 19, 2021 19:25 PM

    Hey Cory – here are a few I’d like to hear you and Dave discuss next week. First Mining(FFMGF), Triumph(TIGCF), US Gold Corp (USAU), Reyna Silver(RSNVF). Thanks!

      Jan 19, 2021 19:56 PM

      Good suggestions Sam. I’m a fan of Triumph for Copper as much as for their Gold, and Reyna Silver (and actually have been gradually accumulating Reyna into the recent weakness).

        Jan 19, 2021 19:09 PM

        John Anderson of (TIG) (TIGCF) Triumph Gold presents – Corporate Presentation

        Virtual Metals Investor Forum on January 14-15, 2021

          Jan 20, 2021 20:10 AM

          Thanks for posting the TIG presentation.

        Jan 19, 2021 19:14 PM

        Greg McCoach, The Mining Speculator & Peter Megaw, Reyna Silver (TSXV: RSLV)

        Reyna Silver – Nov 17, 2020

        “Reyna’s Chief Technical Advisor, Peter Megaw and Greg McCoach, editor of The Mining Speculator, discuss the Company’s recent acquisition of the Medicine Springs silver-lead-zinc project located in Nevada, as well as some recent updates on Reyna’s high-grade district-scale silver projects in Mexico.”

        “Dr. Peter K.M. Megaw, Consulting Geologist and President of IMDEX/Cascabel and co-founder of Minera Cascabel and MAG Silver, has 40 years involvement in Mexican geology and is well-known in the Mexican mining industry.”

    Jan 19, 2021 19:34 PM
    Jan 19, 2021 19:04 PM

    I will be very surprised if Trump doesn’t pardon Snowden and Assange, if anything they are about fighting the corrupt establishment something that he has been doing for his entire Presidency. DT

      Jan 20, 2021 20:16 AM

      That would put Trump in a better light at the end. He had now half a year to think about it. Not much time left to do it.

      Do you really think Trump‘s agenda was about fighting corruption?

    Jan 19, 2021 19:22 PM

    The stock market reckoning is at close hand. Watch out for “BITSNAP”. The speculative favorite of millennials and hedge funds. Soon we will see several days of declining prices followed by a toppling of gigantic losses. Bitcon, the invisible bank has infiltrated the financial system that when it drops it will take more than a few banks with it, along with all the speculators who believed that it was going to one hundred thousand. This time The Big Bull Market is no longer young and the shake-out will be real. DT

      Jan 19, 2021 19:54 PM

      DT – I have a short Russell 2000 position (via RWM), a VIX position (via VIXY), and even a short gold miners position (via JDST), just in case we see any panic selling for the balance of the week. Those are just small hedges against my retirement account still in the US general markets, and my trading account filled with resource stocks.

      It does seem many are complacent to just do “business as usual” with all the crazy currents in geopolitics and economic to be seemingly ignored. Last year was one of the most insane and “unprecedented” in history, and most markets just shrugged it all off and surged higher anyway. I’ve never seen anything like it, but there is a day of reckoning coming, and the bull market bubble in the general equities, in bonds, in biotech, in cryptos, and in most markets is getting long in the tooth.

      Hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.

        Jan 19, 2021 19:34 PM

        Ex, you are always prepared and have a plan, you will never be one of those men that looks defeat in the face. When the time comes the bankers will not be able to step into the breach and print more money, that has already failed, the system is awash with money but it is broke. In that respect it is not 1929 again. DT

          Jan 19, 2021 19:41 PM

          Thanks DT, and agreed. Those are sobering thoughts to reconcile and we are really at a precarious point in fiscal policy.

            Jan 19, 2021 19:47 PM

            When Do Bond Yields Hurt Equities? The Big Conversation| Refinitiv

            Real Vision Finance – Jan 19, 2021

            “This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the relationship between bond yields and equity markets and the potential for higher yields to impact risk. So far, markets have taken higher yields in their stride. Will the Fed act before markets take flight or will higher US yields eventually encourage foreign investors back into the bond market, capping yields and providing a self-correcting mechanism? In the Chatter, we look at Yellen’s recent comments about the US dollar and review the recent history of US currency intervention.”


            Jan 20, 2021 20:00 AM

            Covid-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation (w/ Raoul Pal & Jeff Booth)

            Real Vision Finance – January 19, 2021

            “Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement.”


          Jan 19, 2021 19:43 PM

          Huge Gold Stock Buying Opportunity after Coming 1929-type Market Crash says Bob Hoye

          MiningStockEducation – Jan 19, 2021

          Bob Hoye is a trained geologist, successful resource investor and economic historian. In this interview, Bob shares his 2021 outlook for the financial markets, gold and gold stocks. He believes we are in a major financial bubble and that the analogue to 2021 is 1929 which saw a huge market crash. But this market crash, Bob expects, will create a tremendous buying opportunity in the gold stocks so make sure you have cash and your buy list prepared in advance.

          0:00 Introduction
          0:54 Financial markets are wildly speculative right now
          3:19 Base metals
          5:23 Huge financial bubble right now
          7:05 2021’s financial analogue is 1929
          11:45 GDXJ outperforming S&P
          12:52 Gold stock buying opportunity after market crash
          13:54 Create your gold stock watchlist

    Jan 19, 2021 19:41 PM

    Biden’s inauguration is a telling story of how America is today. A country governed by an old and feeble man. A country whose politics are distracted and embittered by dissensions at home and in other lands. It’s vigor exhausted by meddling in every quarrel which afflicts the world. DT

    Jan 19, 2021 19:58 PM

    Welp folks, got my sewer sled to ride the next 4 years down- down- down. Joe Biden has my blessing to smoke in the transgender bathroom.

    Jan 19, 2021 19:21 PM

    47 years in GOVT doesn’t qualify Joe to step behind the high school wi my homeboyz

    Jan 19, 2021 19:34 PM

    Make sure Springsteen sings in front of The Wall. So he knows what back looks like.

    Jan 19, 2021 19:02 PM

    Hey guys!

    Let me know if anyone wants something of substance? A gold update?

      Jan 19, 2021 19:21 PM

      Yes, please, i’m always interested in something of substance 🙂

      Jan 19, 2021 19:37 PM

      Dear Glen. Please share your update with us. Your updates have become one of, if not the major reason, I come here. Thanks

    Jan 19, 2021 19:45 PM

    Maybe I will let the experts like Gary Wagner or Gary savage tell you the direction. I have targets but I have decided to keep them to myself and for a change not share them.

    I will hold a back seat to all these experts lol out there and there projections. As many of you know and the ones who have followed my work, you can clearly see what is happening! Everything i professed way ahead of anyone in the sector before it happened and I’m on record!


    Jan 19, 2021 19:29 PM

    Oops, too late ?

    Jan 20, 2021 20:33 AM

    Interesting to see whether this is a dead cat bounce for gold and silver or if the bulls have become exhausted in the short to mid-term.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:44 AM

    Appendix/Spike Low. Piano Pattern.
    Glenfidish Penultimate Pop: Now ?

    Jan 20, 2021 20:10 AM

    Radius Gold Inc. has provided results from its phase four diamond drill program at the Amalia gold-silver project in Chihuahua, Mexico. Pan American Silver Corp., the project operator, has reported assays for the first three drill holes of the phase 4 program and new results include:
    AMDD20-022 assayed 23.1 m at 6.8 g/t Au and 321 g/t Ag (estimated true width 14.5m)
    including 6.25 m at 18.34 g/t Au and 813 g/t Ag.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:13 AM

    Great Bear drills 34.85 m of 10.01 g/t Au at Dixie
    2021-01-20 07:36 ET – News Release
    Mr. Chris Taylor reports

    Jan 20, 2021 20:15 AM

    Radisson drills eight m of 14.9 g/t Au at O’Brien
    2021-01-20 06:51 ET – News Release
    Mr. Mario Bouchard reports

    Jan 20, 2021 20:16 AM

    Wallbridge drills 54 m of 3.48 g/t Au at Fenelon
    2021-01-20 06:43 ET – News Release
    Mr. Marz Kord reports

    Jan 20, 2021 20:18 AM

    Argonaut drills 10 m of 19 g/t Au at Magino
    2021-01-20 06:17 ET – News Release
    Mr. Pete Dougherty reports

    Jan 20, 2021 20:22 AM

    Ridgeline drills 42.6 m of 16.78 g/t Ag at Selena
    2021-01-20 08:27 ET – News Release
    Mr. Chad Peters reports

    Jan 20, 2021 20:22 AM


    Jan 20, 2021 20:27 AM

    Gold update!

    Nothings changed..Right shoulder formation as mentioned weeks ago if not a mi the ago in progress. That’s what I’m seeing. Targeting move $1880-1900 back and forth back filling formation of a right shoulder of a long pattern inverse head and shoulder. If it holds will be a powerful move upwards onto my timing dates..

    Best of luck


      Jan 20, 2021 20:21 AM

      Thanks, Glenfidish.

        Jan 20, 2021 20:20 PM


        Anytime my good friend 🙂

      Jan 20, 2021 20:47 AM

      Dear Glen, if I got You right, up to 1800-1900 and then back to 1850 followed by a move up to l2050-2075?

        Jan 20, 2021 20:59 AM

        Yes and well not quite. Don’t mean to confuse. Blow up the image on the daily with visualize the symmetry on that right shoulder. I’m personally looking for up and down back filling which can extend another week maybe more. I would be satisfied also with this current move up as long as we come back down and hold up and down widen that right shoulder then pop up into that next zone. The next testing move will be a confirmation break of the neck line $1950-$1975. Right shoulder top eventually in a week or more should target above $1975-$2075..before back down and take off.

        Hope this helps glen

          Jan 20, 2021 20:03 AM

          Thanks for the thoughts Glen… holding tight.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:43 AM

    Good Saturation. Firming up.
    Low Swing looks to be in place,
    Swing Top no sooner than Monday.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:11 AM

    Appropriately, Lady Gaga
    will sing National Anthem.

      Jan 20, 2021 20:18 AM

      Little Wayne not available as he his still clearing booking. 🙂

        Jan 20, 2021 20:28 AM

        Eminem need not apply…lol.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:35 AM

    EX, MATT & GlenF,
    My capital “A” Amateurish-hunch is we do go up to the $1900 level like Glenfish says and then a short-lived and DEEP %29 General market correction kicks-in. As a result, the PM’s re-test the November 2020 lows…. and with a nice/nasty “false-breakdown.” This will coincide with a two-day mini-panic sell, THEN, about a week later, while everyone, who bought PM stocks back in July of 2020 will be “dumping-gold-bricks” so- to-speak, the PM sector, will only then be able pull a “Rocky-Balboa” and Rocky-up-up through mid-late Feb April….so SO fast to sit just above the August high $2100…leaving scared & scared punters who bought in July 2020 on the sidelines for a while until we approach the $2600 levels. That is when Ex and Matt sell a sizable chunk of their shares back to said FOMO-punters……rinse and repeat…until the blow-off 4 to15k top??. Psychological warfare! Yes “best case scenario” and NOT investment advice as Doc prudently tells us from time to time;)

      Jan 20, 2021 20:08 AM

      Thanks for laying out that potential scenario confused. Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen, and all we can do is analyze charts for probabilistic risk/reward set ups, where support and resistance may show up on shorter term or longer term scenarios, and react accordingly as the pricing data shows up.

      Since I mainly invest in the miners, then I’m less obsessed with the game of “guess the number”, on any given target, and more interested with whether we are in corrective legs or the next impulse leg higher in the ongoing larger bull market. When things get really overbought then I scale out, and when the sectors corrects back down and people start jumping ship, then I scale in heavier to positions.

      For the most part, anything over $1800 – $1900 is great for the Gold producers and developers, and so they’ll be printing money at those metals prices. The miners never really fully digested the rise higher in gold prices and have underperformed in a big way compared to the levels they rose to when Gold was last at those prices in 2011. Even if gold ping-pongs around here in the high $1700’s to to high $1900s, then I still see many miners having plenty of room to run higher as they keep producing the revenues and free cash flows that will allow them to invest in expanding their operations through exploration or through acquisitions. If/when Gold gets back above the recent high at $2089 (and I believe it will later this year as the bull market is still intact), then that is just icing on the cake for the miners, and it will bring in more generalist investors again, that have temporarily left to go chase other shiny objects. Until then, meaningful pullbacks in the miners should be accumulated for the long term advance. Cheers!

      Jan 20, 2021 20:42 PM


      Thank you for taking the time to express your own feelings of the market and direction. We value you! Keep up the great commentary and free expression as we can all learn or challenge each other!


    Jan 20, 2021 20:51 AM

    Shout out to Excelsior. Looking through his portfolio I came across MEXUS Gold (Gold Producer). Look into it (it has gotten crushed) and decided to take an initial position (2 year basing). Trading View has it up 34% today due maybe to yesterdays news. It could go down to 0 and I am okay with that. The point it is thanks everyone for being vulnerable and throwing out ideas / companies to go and investigate. It could be a big winner and it could be a big loser.

      Jan 20, 2021 20:46 AM

      Thanks for the shout out GrowingTrees. Yes, Mexus is a tiny little producer that had all kinds of set backs for 2-3 years (hence the getting crushed), but they finally have worked out the kinks on their leach pads, using carbon & chemistry to deal with the excess clay in their ore, and should be making good money as they produce gold.

      With a smaller company there is always that increased risk/reward scenario, and heighted risk of complete failure, but they can also have the extreme outsized moves as well. A few years back it went up 56 times for example, and it is still the largest percentage gains I’ve ever had on a mining position.

      To be clear, it is not a major weighting in my portfolio, or my favorite gold stock by any stretch (and I’ve got about 3 dozen gold stocks diversified into different mining stages), but if it moves again, like it has in past, then it can easily increase in size rapidly, and I’ll trim it back as it runs higher.

      Ever Upward!

    Jan 20, 2021 20:25 AM

    thank you glenfidish
    always appreciate the update. from my memory, a couple of weeks ago, you did state we were in a filling formation for the right shoulder in a linverse head and shoulder pattern. Which has been dead on!! Again from memory, your dates were april and may– with a sell in may.
    Anyways love your input and always look forward to your forecasts.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:53 AM

    Ex said is perfectly and that is how I treated it. I checked out their website, chat, looked at the technicals, wanted some producers, not a big position, wanted something unloved (not already a bandwagon stock). #communityhelp

      Jan 20, 2021 20:56 AM

      +1 Wishing you good trading and yes, best to buy assets when they are unloved, and sell them when they are dear to others.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:19 AM

    Anyone still following pots should note the recent pp that Cresco did at almost no discount to the market price and was only available to 5 institutional investors. The big 4 MSO’s are all going to go higher. I’m still using the warrants as my investment vehicle especially in Cresco

      Jan 20, 2021 20:11 AM

      This is my favourite and only pot stock I own, High Tide (HITI.V). Retail pricing is being pressured down in Canada because of the continued prevalence of the illicit market but market share is now the battle.

        Jan 20, 2021 20:35 AM

        Wow! Dan that is quite the run higher in High Tide. Thanks for sharing that chart.

          Jan 20, 2021 20:48 AM

          I tried day trading it but decided to buy and hold for a run like Xebec, haha!;-)

            Jan 20, 2021 20:53 AM

            Here is a 2 year chart of Xebec. Related small caps… ERTH, ETX and AMY, all enviros. ETX has a P/E of 8 and AMY of 5000, haha.


            Jan 20, 2021 20:07 PM

            List is never complete without greenlane renewable

            Jan 20, 2021 20:13 PM

            Geenlane Renewables (GRN.V) Still on the venture, they should be looking for a big board listing as we speak. Impressive move.


            Jan 20, 2021 20:52 PM

            Great comments, charts, and companies Dan & Wolfster. Yes the clean energy and clean tech stocks have done insanely well, and that is a trend that is still growing. Much appreciated.

      Jan 20, 2021 20:24 AM

      American Manganese (AMY.V) Recycling patent used with the US National Defense. Has been an a tear…

        Jan 20, 2021 20:25 AM

        This should have gone by itself, not under the pots.

        Jan 20, 2021 20:26 AM

        American Manganese (AMY.v)

          Jan 20, 2021 20:59 AM

          Now up over 45%… TODAY!

            Jan 20, 2021 20:36 PM

            Wow, what a run higher today from AMY. I used to follow them a few years back, and they used to be a show sponsor here at the KER. Now they are finally stretching their legs…

            Jan 20, 2021 20:51 PM

            I think Larry annoyed people but they are legit now. I have done the shoulda/woulda face palms over not buying into this at lower prices. In Canada we have TFSAs (Tax Free Savings Accounts) to buy these things and throw them into, then forget about ’em.

            Jan 20, 2021 20:53 PM

            Yeah, I’m doing a face palm today, as I actually owned AMY a few times, and believed in their process but got sick of waiting…. and waiting…. only to watch it’s value keep eroding over time. Looks like they’ve turned the corner in a major way though, so good on them and the investors that stuck with them.

        Jan 20, 2021 20:26 PM

        I am mostly in cash these days, I do like day trading at this point in time. I bought some Fuse Cobalt this morning for twelve cents and it ran to 32.5 cents. I only held for a 50% profit but I am testing the waters these days to see if The Robinhood traders are in the metal juniors, I have a sense they might be warming up to this sector. Anytime the government funds a metal position these stocks can really blow out like GPH did yesterday. No due diligence required here just playing momentum while it lasts and staying in cash in case the whole market tanks. DT

          Jan 20, 2021 20:44 PM

          The American and Canadian governments are starting to wake up to the fact that The Chinese have a lip lock on many of the critical and rare earth elements even in their own backyards, Well Duh! This presents an opportunity for momentum traders while they try to address this terrible situation. DT

            Jan 20, 2021 20:57 PM

            Another reflection on day trading, I find it is usually the most profitable before there is a big market downturn, it’s just a silly situation perpetuated by inexperienced traders, thinking that possibilities are unlimited. DT

            Jan 20, 2021 20:04 PM

            Haha, you’ve probably got some of my money as I am a far better swing trader than day trader. My biggest fault is trying to force trades for the sake of making daily money, so I see how your idea works.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:32 PM


    Anytime my good friend!!hope all is well out there in your side.

      Jan 20, 2021 20:46 PM


      Each and everytime I get a “ new” poster mentioning something of this magnitude it really hits home. I can’t begin to express the way I feel with all these new posters coming in and thanking me when I’m fact I’m so deeply honoured and humbled by this praise because I have worked my ass off to make charts, post direction and help others!

      Thank you and please make it a habit for yourself to post more often we all need you as well as you need us!


    Jan 20, 2021 20:59 PM

    Hi Glenfidish. Just a quick query, Im contemplating a possibly liquidation of some silver in the short term. Over the next few days/weeks where do you see silver peaking in this backfilling process? Cheers!

      Jan 20, 2021 20:10 PM


      The timing band for silver as i speak is buy buy buy! We are going to embark in the biggest move silver has ever had.. what more can glen say.. this move will propel silver to $50 plus. The last thing in my mind is selling. I’m a buyer at these prices.


        Jan 20, 2021 20:19 PM

        Thanks Glen. I only intend to sell a portion and certainly not all of it. Was just curious of your view in the short term price movements as I may need to raise some extra cash due to unforseen events.

          Jan 20, 2021 20:21 PM

          Apologies i forgot to use my Pseudonym above.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:36 PM

    We have a double bottom in play for GLD and gold and GLD closed above the KAMA by a nickel today while gold did not.

    Jan 20, 2021 20:30 PM

    Cheers for these charts Matthew, always a good help.