Commodity considerations for this push toward electrification and green initiative
John Kaiser joins me today to discuss the continued attention toward electrification and the green initiative around the world. We focus mostly on North America and the investment opportunities in lesser followed commodities. We also discuss the role of copper for this global move.
Click here to visit John’s site and follow along with his company research.
I bought REZZF a few weeks back under .20, I’ve traded in and out accumulating a free position in the stock. It hit 1.00 a minute ago. How far should one let a stock this hot run? I’ll lose no money at this point, just some more profit.
Earliest Full Saturation (Up) is tomorrow
where it may become a 7 for 7 Maximum.
BDC, if your comment is in reply to my question, can you explain your comment more, pls.
Sure. Over the past few years I decided to learn more about trading. Awhile back something came up which eventually led to my creating the “Saturation Timing and Trade System” for Swing Trading. It is now going live, here with the Ker Krew, and appears to be working well.
Seven factors are used to determine “Saturation” level. “Full Saturation” occurs at most Swing Trade edges (Tops and Bottoms). “Maximum Saturation” means that all 7 factors have ‘maxed out’. This is very powerful.
Two weeks ago, Great Bear (GTBAF) scored a near perfect “MaxSat” score of 6 — the last missing by only a dime! In that case, although further downside was possible, a qualified edge had been reached.
Thanks. Very interesting. Nice diligence. I guess I read over this if its been a working ‘trade system’ discussion.
How is it accessed? or would I just add 7 studies to my chart?
For now, access is through me.
The “Timing” aspect is complete.
Now working on the “Trade” side.
Global Battery Metals: https://postimg.cc/ZB5Y4DQy
MaxSat-5 is very strong, and Chapman Wave ‘G’ is what he might call an additional “Rogue Wave” up; however, another STATS condition implies at least one more high. Today’s ABCD retracement nearly hit a “MiniFibo” extension (1:1.272) after the 1:1 (light blue hash). Note the price and volume gaps, and farther down the volume gap.
Today I had time to look deeper and found some things:
Because the last “Full Saturation (Low)” was 29 January, Thursday’s high was a perfect Chapman Wave ‘F’ top. Closer inspection also showed that it was really at MaxSat-6. These two aspects were more than enough to qualify as a top. Friday’s negative action was verification.
GDX takes out 33.08 it’s going to get real ugly for the miners……..
Three XAU supports to watch (green rectangle):
GDM at an interesting support:
Good chart. Yes, GDM is back to trendline support. #HoldTheLine
John, what will fuel all these electric vehicles? Solar panels? Windmills? Will the price of EVs and their charging cost become prohibitive for the average person, and if so, how will that affect your demand curves?
could you expand on your comment.
Multiple price interactions with my pitchforks (or other support/resistance) is always “interesting” to me and, at the moment, GDM is trading above the support that it pierced in the chart above (green arrow). I’ve added some annotations for you if you take another look.
As long side (bullish) investors, we want that support to hold.
Can i do a repeat back–if the “pitchfork” goes below (support) at 946.94, then GDM is in trouble? Or, are all gold miners in trouble?
Also are we looking at MACD, slow sto, full sto, ADX, or is it strictly the chart?
thankyou for your time
If GDM gets into trouble, then the gold stocks in general will be in trouble. When speculating in the less liquid tiny cap miners for big gains over weeks or months, I look at a lot of indicators and multiple supports in addition to gold and silver before coming to conclusions that cause me to reverse course so that GDM chart by itself is unlikely to result in my buying or selling. My trading is much simpler when dealing with much larger/very liquid miners or ETFs.
thankyou for the explanation.
it appears that you (and others) have stock charts which initiate your process of evaluation. from there you move on to other charts for course direction.
I’m assuming the XAU chart would also be a “first indicator” chart.
Matthew, another question, is it your software that is drawing in the blue line on the GDM chart or are you drawing this in?
sorry about all the dumb questions.
There’s nothing dumb about your questions, I can assure you.
The blue line is part of a pitchfork that is generated after I choose three points (in this case, 1 is a major low, 2 a major high and 3 another major low). Point 1 is shifted 25% vertically and 25% horizontally toward point 2…
I’ve added a red arrow to the following chart to show two resistance levels that we’d like the XAU index to climb above (one is a moving average and the other is a pitchfork):
Nice charts Matthew. I always look at every one you post.
First off thanks Matthew Glen and Ex for the PM updates…..I just wanted to add on the pot front that IM Cannabis looks like a buy again as they have a Nasdaq listing coming in the 1st qtr which is more than 1/3 done now and that could be a huge catalyst going forward. That’s how we talk about pots Sean. Give some plays that you like
Wolfster – Thanks for the heads up on both IM Cannabis and Red, White, and Bloom.
Jaguar Mining touched a new high today bucking the gold down trend.
Yes, I saw that IN JAG today blazesb. Actually there were still some Gold and Silver stocks that had green days to the upside, despite the weakness in the metals, and overall the miners didn’t fall out of bed, which is an encouraging signal of strength for the PM sector. It is good to see the miners holding up so well, all things considered.
Ex, it is and probably because they heralded the coming drop. “Nibbled” at some more SAND at the close and will have a strong position when we bottom over the next few weeks.
Bonzo will like to hear this but on the NSRPF monthly chart there is a classic inverse head/shoulders formation taking place—the other positive is that the monthly BBs are just starting to form. I bet by late spring/summer we see a breakout.
Hi Doc. – Yes, I’ve been building a position in SAND and it is now the largest royalty position I have. I may trim back 1 or 2 other royalty positions tomorrow and put them into Sandstorm, as I see it as a very attractive value for accumulation of their more than 200 royalty and stream assets. This is a great opportunity to accumulate Nolan Watson’s epic success story.
(SAND) (SSL) Sandstorm Gold: One Of The Cheapest Precious Metals Royalty Companies Right Now
Feb. 03, 2021 – Peter Arendas – Seeking Alpha
Jag is cheap from a PE standpoint and even cheaper when you combine it with its 3.5% yield. Never underestimate the power of a good dividend.
I rode GORO from my first purchase at 1.10 to well over 30 and I’d bet the last two-thirds of the action was due to the dividend (.06 per month).
The all-time high shown is 25.70 but that is off by 7 or 8 bucks so there must have been adjustments based on changes to the share structure or even due to the dividend itself.
Yeah, I’m a big fan of Jaguar and it is still undervalued compared to peer producers of 100K ounces per year on a number of metrics. I get that JAG has a jurisdiction discount being in Brazil, but look at the disparity between how it is valued and how a company like Wesdome is valued for a similar production profile, and similar exploration upside. Also Jaguar has a whole mining complex on care and maintenance that can be turned back on and quickly ramp up their production numbers, as another kicker.
As for GORO, I got positioned in it last year, and it has not been one of my winners, but they did something which confused much of the market by spinning out their Nevada assets (1 producing mine & 4 other exploration projects in NV) into a new company called Fortitude Gold, that still has not listed. I’ve got the stock cusip number and shares, but waiting on the official listing. This leaves Gold Resource Corp with only the producing mine and exploration projects in Mexico. Many were scratching their heads, because most companies are trying to combine and mass up with more production and diversify their jurisdictions under one umbrella, and GORO decided to deconstruct the 2 jurisdictions, and go all Mexico in one vehicle, and all Nevada in the emerging vehicle (Fortitude). It really was an odd decision, but one thought that crossed my mind, is that they may be protecting the Nevada assets from a potential takeover of their Mexican mine, or maybe they had interest in one area or the other, but people didn’t want the other jurisdiction.
Overall, I’m really glad to have gone in heavier with Jaguar in years past, for the recent appreciation, and yes now dividends, and with Gold Resource Corp there are also dividends, but they have some splainin’ to do.
Jaguar and Scorpio the latter of which I continue to load up are two strong companies aside from the many you have talked about. I just keep accumulating Scorpio under stealth..
I guess I should have mentioned that I have not owned GORO since it was well over $20 nearly 10 years ago. The current yield is just 1.4% which could really hold it back if investors don’t find other good reasons to own it. It would have to trade well under $2 to get its yield up to Jag’s 3.5%.
Yeah, I like Scorpio Gold still as well, and think found the best outcome brining in Titan Mining as a JV partner at Mineral Ridge, freeing them up to focus more on Goldwedge.
Agreed that JAG has the superior dividend and better growth trajectory, and I’m not really sure what GORO will do moving forward, as they are in the middle of a change in strategy regarding their assets and putting more focus on exploration in Mexico. I find the projects in Nevada, spun out over the last few months into Fortitude Gold, to be the more interesting part of their story, but am still waiting to see the dang shares get listed and start trading.
Matt, that’s insane if you ride that baby from a to be wow! You and ex have a good idea of good companies. I’ve personally felt comfortable as you both know with directors and management teams! Not to say you both don’t value that.. 100% you guys talk about it always..
Ex you obviously know quite a bit in regards to Scorpio it’s funny how to different approaches really come together and at the end we both agree that it will deliver!
Sounds like I need to pick up some Jag. I didn’t realize it had such a nice dividend!
I like the dividend in JAG, but I was positioned long before they announced that (an long before Eric Sprott gobbled up 48% of the company), because I love the upside rerating they are going through as their ounces in the ground grow in value and their margins have gotten so much better in the higher metals price environment.
Jaguar had a really nice move higher in 2019 and 2020, and I’d expect that trend to continue on the next leg higher in Gold back up north of $2000 again later in the year.
Precious metals have uncoupled from the broader markets all right but this wasn’t exactly what I had in mind. Its been an interesting week–we had a great month on Monday. Again not exactly…
The Precious Metals have been uncoupled from the general markets since last summer, when the PMs went into a correction pattern, and the stocks kept ratcheting higher, then the PM sector was rising last week into earlier this week when stocks were correcting, and now the PMs are pulling back more as the stocks are flying.
So this brings up the question people love to ask, but nobody can answer:
How will the PMs and PM related stocks fare in a general market selloff?
If the uncoupling for the last 7 months is any indication, then sure there may be a brief hit in a “sell everything” crash, but the PMs would likely continue to be uncoupled to any machinations in the general markets, and dance to the beat of their own drummers. If the Gold and Silver prices stay reasonably elevated, the producers will keep making money, and the projects of the advanced developers will keep getting more valuable.
Agreed Ex, I think this is a plausible scenario. In the interim, we need a solid day for gold and silver going into the weekend. Like weve mentioned in the past, need that November low to hold.
Yeah, often on a big outsized move (in either direction) there will be a snapback the opposite direction the following day. We’ll see if things bounce a bit tomorrow to close up the week in a little better shape.
Well look at that…. we did get the bounce and it turned into a feel good Friday after all.
Looks like these so called resource gurus are toting the commuist line on coronavirus, anti-white, climate change n transexuals
I truly don’t understand what you are saying. Please let us know in layman‘s terms.
Just to alleviate some stress from the general markets, I would like to ask many of you what your thoughts are on the best minors in general. Let’s start a little chat in regards to what company you think is most undervalued at this current moment whether it’s silver or gold.
Allow me to leave the chat! I believe the Scorpio BrixtonAnd compass are some of the most undervalued minors at this current moment. Please share with your thoughts what do you think at this current moment right now at 9:15 PM is the lowest value minors and silver and gold what you believe in 3 to 5 months or two a year will be 3 to 5 times as much.
I would like to include my pal and great from here to the current family wolf and his pot predictions. He is the master of warrants and pots. Which part minors do you believe for the most undervalued at this current moment at 9:16 PM and will return 3 to 5 times as much within 6 to 1 year. Some thing for fun for all of us.
Glen, he has to be referring to the guest, John Kaiser. I haven’t listened to the clip but he’s always let his lefty afflictions show.
I won’t bother in that case thanks!
Holy shit sorry for the the grammar and spelling! I’m regards to the previous posting. I’m drinking and speaking through the mic yet it spells what it wants.
I would personally like to know what Matt, Doc and ex think that at this current second is the best values silver and gold stock? Are you guys willing to share that?
Hi Glen. As for the best “value” in gold stocks that can be subjective based on what kind of risk an investor is willing to take on, with one type of investor seeing more value in a producing company that will be able to monetize the continued high metals prices, where as a different type of investor may be looking for the best value on the price/EV on ounces in the ground with a development stage company.
If you are asking which stock will move up the most on percentage basis it will likely be an exploration drill play that puts out a couple of crazy holes in 2021, but that is impossible to know in advance before it happens, and all one can do is bet on good teams, projects, and geology and hope the geos vector in on the right area.
I’m happy to share my portfolio of stocks in my trading account that are focused on Gold or Silver, (and happy sharing my positions any sector Copper, Platinum/Palladium/Nickel, Zinc/Lead, Uranium, Lithium, etc…)
Here are the Silver stocks I hold at present, and I like all of them for different reasons:
> Silver Producers:
Americas Silver Corp
Impact Silver Corp
Silver Developers and near-term producers:
Alexco Resource Corp
> Silver Exploration stocks and drill plays:
Discovery Metals Corp
Kootenay Silver Inc
Dolly Varden Silver
Vizsla Resources Corp
Silver Tiger Metals
Blackrock Gold Corp
Reyna Silver Corp
Orex Minerals Inc
As for the Gold positions, I’m trying to reduce down the number of positions, but I do like all of these companies, and am happy to review the investing thesis in any of them that folks want to discuss.
> Gold Producers:
Gold Resource Corp
Superior Gold Inc
Wiluna Mining Corp
Inca One Gold
Pure Gold Mining
> Gold Developers:
Lion One Metals
Gold Standard Ventures
Sabina Gold and Silver
Baru Gold Corp
O3 Mining Inc
West Vault Mining
> Gold Explorers and Drill plays:
BTU Metals Corp
Westhaven Gold Corp
Goliath Resources Ltd
Thanks for sharing..
Speculation is an art that requires us to focus on future possibilities that will make current opportunities more enticing than the market at large understands. The risks vary greatly from one bet to the next. For example, Kootenay represents a relatively low risk, high leverage opportunity due to the large number of LOW grade ounce it has in the ground in addition to the high grade ounces and great remaining exploration potential while earlier stage explorers with little to no ounces proven up represent a much higher risk for merely the chance at greater leverage/upside. Kootenay only needs a significantly higher silver price in order to fly to many times its current price but the early stage “moose pasture” requires a noteworthy discovery. Obviously, Kootenay would be the better value at this time.
Finding value among the silver miners gives a lot of people fits because they don’t understand what they should be looking at or thinking about (hello Matt at Crux Investor!). The same is true of most junior resource stocks which is why I like the model that Impact Silver follows. The company produces enough silver to fund most of its exploration and other expenses without going to the market for funds (much more true when the silver price isn’t in the toilet) yet it has massive and very high odds exploration potential on ground that hasn’t been explored using modern methods and equipment but has thousands of old mine workings that go back centuries. Many of those working have tailings (waste rock) that is high grade by today’s standards. The conservative management has proven itself to be very shareholder-friendly by keeping a lid on share count and other paper creation and is even quite good at timing the market when it comes time to raise money (which of course helps to keep shareholder dilution to a minimum). It is the purest silver play out there and even has some exciting gold potential. If I could own just one silver miner, it would still be Impact Silver.
There are other silver plays that will do as well or better than Impact in the months ahead but probably not many that will do so with lower risk. The company has a good relationship with the local and federal governments of Mexico and is the largest employer in the remote area where it operates. I have not been completely out of the stock once in the last 13-14 years and there has never been a labor strike or other worker dispute that I can recall.
I have plenty but bought more today anyway.
+2 Great points on both Kootenay and Impact Silver, and I added a little more Impact this morning as well.
Great to see that the 2 I’ve held on to through all of this getting such love.😎…… as far as other potential options I’m still a big fan of orezone especially through the warrants of course…….of course as Ex pointed out there will be exploration plays that hit with their drills but that’s more of a crapshoot ….but on that front I like the odds that pure golds madsen extends next door to goldon
Wolster – Great point on Ozone, hands down one of the best stand-alone development projects in West Africa, and a very likely takeover target. As for GoldOn yes it as prospective that the mineral trend from PureGold continues, in the same way BTU is next to Great Bear or the Metallic Minerals is next to Alexco, showing the mineralization continues. The drilling from these projects could get top marks in closeology.
From what I’ve seen so far the drilling at Silver Tiger, Vizsla, Metallic, and Defiance Silver have all been great, so it would be hard to pick which Silver explorer I’m more excited about for 2021. All had nice jumps higher last year into early January, as a result, but one of those 4 is going to put out the batch of holes soon that blow people’s minds.
So while exploration is a crapshoot to a degree, there are exploration teams that have already shown they have found enough smoke that there is a fire, and that have secured projects that are incredibly well mineralized. In that sense, these drill plays are less risky than companies that have moose pasture, a slide deck, and a dream.
Great summary Matt! Much appreciated..
BDC, I have just reached my saturation point and will retire for the evening. LOL! DT
Great points as well ex..
Haha! Good one DT, and hopefully you didn’t get too saturated last night. 😉
Good one BDC. Chug-a-lug!
Do not have a lot to offer from what has been discussed… smh. Bunker Hill Mining (BHLL) : Idaho – Silver/Zinc could offer something. I couldn’t trade it on Fidelity, but may be worth a look to you guys.
Thanks growing trees.. going to take a look
One possible downside: non-battery electric vehicles.