A focus on the continued bounce in the USD

February 8, 2021

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx joined me late in the day last Friday to discuss the recent rebound in the USD. There are a couple key factors to note about the Dollar’s bounce. We also discuss the impact of the jobs data on Friday and on yields.

Click here to visit Marc’s blog – Marc to Market.

    Feb 08, 2021 08:55 AM

    Some important resistance levels for UUP:

    Whatever the dollar does versus the Euro isn’t going to matter much to gold since both currencies are on their way down in real terms.

    Don’t forget that the dollar was 20 points higher when gold went over 2,000 than when it hit 1,000 way back in 2008. So the USDX went up 30% while the dollar you spend went down 50% in purchasing power. But there’s no inflation! 😂

      Feb 08, 2021 08:01 AM

      Another example: In May, 2018, gold was around 1300 while the USDX was at the same level as in August 2020 when gold almost hit 2100.
      Too much focus on the USDX will screw up your gold investing decisions.

    Feb 08, 2021 08:00 AM

    The low for the dollar last month happened at the 233 month MA… (for those who can view a monthly chart):

    Feb 08, 2021 08:06 AM

    The significance of the current USDX level is obvious on this quarterly chart:

      Feb 08, 2021 08:38 AM

      The quarterly chart looks like it may confirm Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake theory

        Feb 08, 2021 08:12 PM

        Maybe, if the milkshake is the size of a shot glass. I do think it could rise or at least not fall for longer than many dollar bears might expect but I don’t see a big rise happening. So many factors now look very bad for the buck so I expect nothing more than it possibly using up a little time. And speaking of time, it looks cyclically time for the third major decline since the Plaza Accord top in 1985…

        Feb 08, 2021 08:20 PM

        The 2021 Life Raft: Gold, Bitcoin or the Dollar Milkshake? Raoul Pal, Brent Johnson, Peter Schiff

        Cambridge House International Inc. – Feb 8, 2021

        Raoul Pal | CEO, Real Vision & Global Macro Intelligence
        Brent Johnson | CEO, Santiago Capital
        Peter Schiff | CEO, EuroPacific Capital
        Moderated by Cambridge House CEO, Jay Martin

        “We are in some version of the logical conclusion of our financial system as we’ve known it for our entire life.”

          Feb 08, 2021 08:34 PM

          That really was an entertaining and informative debate between those 3 guys. Peter Schiff won the debate according to most of the comments in the video, and had the only coherent view on what inflation is, but he’s been wrong about cryptos. Raoul’s concentrated bet on Bitcoin/Ethereum is way to risky to consider though. I try and consider what Brent has to say about the Dollar getting a bid in the financial chaos to come, because he feels other currencies will crash worse, but I still don’t see the Dollar ripping higher into the 120’s and 130’s like that.

          Raoul’s point about a sideways trending Dollar stuck in a range for a long time, avoiding the collapse like Japan did makes sense. All 3 seemed to be in agreement that after the collapse or reset, that Emerging Markets were the place to be. Definitely food for thought.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:06 PM

          It’s funny that Raoul Pal doesn’t seem to understand that a sideways dollar for an extended period of time doesn’t necessarily mean that gold will come under pressure.

            Feb 09, 2021 09:18 AM

            Agreed Matthew. Even if the Dollar did get stuck in sideways channel between 85 and 105 for years and years, Gold could still do great as they really aren’t nearly as correlated as some market pundits seem to think. I do agree with Raoul that in that kind of environment that Emerging Markets could do quite well, as there would be less uncertainty.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:16 PM

          Peter’s characterization of Bitcoin (at 27:50) is spot-on. People buy it to gamble and get rich, not for safety or to store wealth.
          If he knew how to use price charts, he would have known that it was going to go up in 2020.

          Feb 09, 2021 09:12 AM

          Wow. Poor Raoul couldn’t tie Peter’s shoes. The guy doesn’t have clue what causes inflation and, therefore, why Peter is right about the bond market. Unbelievable.

            Feb 09, 2021 09:25 AM

            I have a lot of respect for Raoul Pal, and he is a sharp macro investor, but I agree that he wasn’t getting it with the money printing, (needed to buy the bonds in the scenario they were discussing) being inflationary. In Raoul’s defense, I have heard him discuss that topic before, and he usually states, that there won’t be inflation until the velocity of money increases, which is more seen in government stimulus being pumped directly into economy to businesses and citizens, versus Fed increasing their balance sheet but not increasing the velocity of money. I’m sure he would have unpacked that point but Peter cut off mid sentence.

    Feb 08, 2021 08:27 AM
    Feb 08, 2021 08:41 PM

    Here’s an exchange between goldfinger and drjimjones on tarachi gold from ceo.

    @Goldfinger Tarachi Gold Signs Purchase Agreement for the Magistral Mill and Tailings Project in Durango, Mexico @newswire/tarachi-gold-signs-purchase-agreement-for-the-magistral

    “The Company is incredibly fortunate to have secured such a desirable and game-changing asset. During our recent site visit, the whole team was impressed with the like-new condition of the plant and the proximity of the tailings materials which are right at the doorstep. While the due diligence process took longer than expected, primarily due to COVID-19 related delays, we are now ready to roll up our sleeves and get to work to bring this facility online and start producing gold.” ~ $TRG CEO Cameron Tymstra 6 from #index, about 6 hours ago
    @Drjimjones Now if they’d only open the stock 2 about 6 hours ago
    @Drjimjones Due Diligence Report updated to include dilution of 17 million shares to acquire asset.

    “Net Cashflow per share on the project: $0.71 (current share price is $0.29 that included $0.13 of cash) THAT IS STUPID CRAZY CHEAP! You are paying $0.29 for $0.84 of cash. without even considering exploration success or expansion of Tailing Ops.” “NOTE: Total unencumbered Free Cashflow of $55.95 Million , current Enterprise Value of $14.88 Million.”

    “Huh? ….Hold on I gotta clean my glasses….HOLY COW!!! I’m so sorry, I made a mistake, the shares aren’t free, you get paid 4X to own them.”

    THESIS TEST Downside/Upside -/+ $350 on Gold Price, Assumption $1850 USD/OZ

    At $1500 oz USD Gold Net Cashflow = $32.9 Million CAN = 2.9 x current Enterprise Value

    At $2200 oz USD Gold Net Cashflow = $79.1 Million CAN =5.3 x current Enterprise Value

    Note: Correct you get paid to own them.”

      Feb 08, 2021 08:46 PM

      Yep, Blaseb – I saw that over at with Dr Jones and Goldfinger on Tarachi Gold.

      Looks interesting and worth taking a deeper dive, as I respect both those guys diligence.

        Feb 08, 2021 08:49 PM

        I enjoyed your editorial Ex.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:52 PM

          Thanks amigo.

    Feb 08, 2021 08:04 PM

    We had discussed Freeloader Airlines (aka Freefall Ventures) on the weekend blog, and it was nice to see it up 12% today. 🙂

    Freegold Ventures Limited (FVL.TO) $0.6500 + $0.0700 (+12.07% gain)

      Feb 08, 2021 08:06 PM

      We had also discussed Jaguar Mining on the weekend blog and it was up over 11%. today.

      Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG.TO) $10.30 + $1.04 (+11.23% gain)

        Feb 08, 2021 08:20 PM

        The 2 biggest sector winners today in my portfolio were the Crypto Miners and the Uranium stocks.

        I have positions in Argo Blockchain (ARB.L) up 20%, Cypherpunk Holdings (HODL.CN) up 14%, and Hive Blockchain up 7% on the day.

        However, I wish I had positions in some of the others like Voyager Digital (VYGR.CN) that Wolfster has mentioned before, up 17%, along with Hut 8 Mining (HUT.TO) up 22%, and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) up a whopping 40% on the day.

        I actually tried to pick up Hut 8 mining at the open but it had already taken off like a scalded cat, and ran away. Oh well, I had 3 of the crypto miners, and feel it is a good way to get leverage to rising prices.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:23 PM

          As for the Uranium Stocks, they’ve been very strong the last few months, and I thought they may top out, and had trimmed some back in mid January, but kept core positions in place. On days like this though, I regret having trimmed them at all, as the force is strong with this bunch…


          Symbol – #Uranium Stocks – Daily Change %

          UNO-H.V Northern Uranium Corp. +50.00%
          API.CN Appia Energy Corp. +25.49%
          EPM.AX Eclipse Metals Limited +22.22%
          WWR Westwater Resources, Inc. +18.87%
          FSY.TO Forsys Metals Corp. +17.19%
          UVN.V Uravan Minerals Inc. +16.67%
          REL.V Roughrider Exploration Limited +16.67%
          PLU.V Plateau Energy Metals Inc. +15.38%
          AEC.V Anfield Energy Inc. +15.00%
          MKA.V Mkango Resources Ltd. +14.81%
          UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. +14.68%
          FCU.TO Fission Uranium Corp. +14.63%
          AGE.AX Alligator Energy Limited +14.29%
          ISO.V IsoEnergy Ltd. +13.48%
          LTBR Lightbridge Corporation +12.79%
          AAZ.V Azincourt Energy Corp. +12.50%
          RDM.AX Red Metal Limited +12.50%
          TOE.AX Toro Energy Limited +12.50%
          CVV.V CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. +12.24%
          FUU.V Fission 3.0 Corp. +12.00%
          GLO.TO Global Atomic Corporation +10.24%
          DNN Denison Mines Corp. +10.01%
          EU.V enCore Energy Corp. +10.00%
          UEC Uranium Energy Corp. +9.89%
          AZZ.TO Azarga Uranium Corp. +8.89%
          STND.V Standard Uranium Ltd. +8.82%
          SYH.V Skyharbour Resources Ltd. +8.77%
          VO.V ValOre Metals Corp. +8.77%
          LAM.TO Laramide Resources Ltd. +8.57%
          CUR.V International Consolidated Uranium Inc. +8.21%
          BSK.V Blue Sky Uranium Corp. +8.00%
          MGA.TO Mega Uranium Ltd. +7.14%
          PWM.V Power Metals Corp. +6.85%
          URG Ur-Energy Inc. +6.57%
          PTU.V Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. +6.25%
          LEU Centrus Energy Corp. +6.06%
          GCL.L Geiger Counter Limited +6.01%
          CCJ Cameco Corporation +5.50%
          URNM North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF +5.36%
          BKY.L Berkeley Energia Limited +5.26%
          NXE.TO NexGen Energy Ltd. +5.10%
          ERA.AX Energy Resources of Australia Ltd +4.88%
          VMY.AX Vimy Resources Limited +4.82%
          URA Global X Uranium ETF +4.72%
          GXU.V GoviEx Uranium Inc. +4.48%
          BOE.AX Boss Energy Limited +4.35%
          WUC.CN Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. +4.17%
          UWE-H.V U3O8 Corp. +3.33%
          UEX.TO UEX Corporation +2.34%
          U.TO Uranium Participation Corporation +1.49%
          NLR VanEck Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF +0.84%

          Feb 08, 2021 08:35 PM

          Don’t remind me Ex. I sold way too soon as the gains were so parabolic. I just underestimated how parabolic it would go….or still go. 😫

            Feb 08, 2021 08:42 PM

            You mean on Voyage Digital. Oh, darn, I thought you still had a nice position and were making out like a bandit. I did pretty good on my recent positions in Argo Blockchain, and Hive, and got the Cypherpunk position in place earlier today and it also ripped higher. I’m just sad to have missed the move in Riot, which I’ve looked at a number of times for over a year now, and I always come away thinking it’s way overpriced, and then it continues to have double-digit up days. I guess there is no rational valuation being used on these crypto miners, so I’m just trading them as highly speculative, over-prices, momo trades, and will scalp gains, and then go back to the sidelines.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:42 PM


            Feb 08, 2021 08:53 PM

            Nice. Good to hear you’re doing well on the cryptos…..I’ve been so busy I’ve had to put in stop losses so I don’t lose all the gains these high flyers have stopped out of voyageur

            Feb 08, 2021 08:53 PM

            That is wise Wolfster, and always a good policy to limit potential risk and lock in gains. Personally, I don’t like using stop losses, because there have been too many experiences where stocks or ETFs go down and trigger them only for them to turn right back around and surge higher.

            For example look at what just happened with cryptos or Silver over the last few weeks… they plunged then surged. I like to watch the technical momentum and cut losses manually if a trade is truly going against the bet placed. I’m usually quick to limit a loss on a drill play exploration stock, if the story isn’t holding up, or if the company makes decisions that violate previously stated plans, or if they change strategies mid -strwam in a confounding way. However, if it is a trade with a lot of conviction, then I’ll typically average down, to bring the cist basis down, and allow the time for the investing thesis to play out. There are, of course, losing trades that had conviction, that simply must be taken as tax loss candidates.

            Regardless, with these crypto miners, I see them as leverage to the underlying cryptos, just like traditional mining stocks offer leverage to the moves in the underlying metals. With cryptos being so volatile, that just makes crypto-miners even more uber-volatile, so hence, simply a swing trade. The valuations are absolutely nuts and unhinged, so I’ll keep an eye on the exit doors. They are not value plays for investing, but are fantastic vehicles for trending swing trades.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:21 PM

            mid -strwam = mid-stream

            cist = cost

            Feb 08, 2021 08:29 PM

            Bitcoin at $46,730. (this is getting crazy!)

            Ethereum at $1,734


            Feb 08, 2021 08:18 PM

            46,100 happens to be the top resistance on the monthly chart using the Pivot tool. On the weekly, that number is over 54,000. The monthly RSI(14) is now over 89. Gold hasn’t achieved such a reading since it hit 92 forty-one years ago.
            Whatever level it reaches, it’s not going to end well.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:42 PM

            Agreed. This bubble will pop, and it will be ugly for those buying the top, but then new bubbles will form. It’s possible the intermediate top in Bitcoin will be this week at the rate things are rising, but I’ve had a few good trades in the cryptos last year and hopefully will sell these crypto miners at a profit to greater fools.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:45 PM

            Last year I was just using GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (which is a just a holding company of bitcoins), but I figured with this recent insane rebound, that I’d try the crypto miners, for even more risk/reward. If we see a rip-the-face-off rally in them tomorrow, then I may sell into the frenzy.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:56 PM

            I’m guessing it will reach 57,000 but such bubbles don’t end in intermediate term tops. Once it pops, it won’t make a new high for years, if ever.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:29 PM

            I said intermediate term top, because it’s possible Bitcoin has a terrible correction, but then has one more leg higher where heads up to 6 digit prices. Many banks and pundits are looking at $150K-$300K as the big top. Now whether that may take years is a good question. When Bitcoin topped in 2017, it did take a few years until it broke above those highs last year in 2020. However, it only took a few months to correct from $40K, down to $30k and now its back up new all time highs at $47,818 currently. The volatility is pretty crazy.

            I agree with you that this move could see something in the $50’s marking a top, and maybe it will be the final top, or just the next in a series of pop-n-drops, but I don’t plan on overstaying the welcome regardless.

            Feb 09, 2021 09:47 AM

            That’s exactly what happened to me with voyager and why I don’t like using them either especially with something as volatile as these cryptos…..unfortunately I was less comfortable with the idea of a big sell off and not making anything. Worst part was I was close to my trigger point of selling 1/2 so I own free shares that change my mentality completely

            Feb 09, 2021 09:32 AM

            Well, so far today, I just trimmed half the Argo Blockchain to lock in gains, but left the Hive and Cypherpunk untouched to keep running. I don’t care about squeezing every single dollar out of inflated momo moves like this, and just want to scalp some easy gains during the volatility. I’ll scale out of these positions with some cheddar, and place the crypto miner gains into the dry powder reserves.

            Feb 09, 2021 09:41 AM

            Dang, Hut 8 Mining just keep blazing higher up another 26% today. I just couldn’t chase it yesterday, or in the days and months before, but it is simply amazing that it just keep rising higher and higher on double digits most days. It will end badly, but these kind of momentum blasts higher lack any fundamental reality, and it is truly the madness of crowds. It is something to behold though.

      Feb 08, 2021 08:45 PM

      % wise: I had Freeloader @ +15.96, Capitan(got it as a spinout somewhere) @ 13.75 and Newage, Theralase and Sky Gold in the +12 range. Added to Palladium One today as it wasn’t its alternating day to go up (on watch for tomorrow as it and Novo my worst today). Since they decided that the Dow should go to $40,000 for no good reason, it is only appropriate to tolerate a capped gain in PM miners. We can see if we need to be beat for our own good tomorrow.

        Feb 08, 2021 08:22 PM

        Yes, good on Newrange Gold also being up nicely on the day. I don’t follow Sky Gold but need to take a closer look at that. Biotech isn’t my thing, but congrats on Theralase.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:42 PM

          Newrange is correct. Sky Gold is in the area of New Found gold. Just speculative. Labrador is on the fault and picked up Quentin Hennigh…but just waiting to see if anything there.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:44 PM

            Sounds good. Yes that area is getting a lot of attention lately. I’ll take a look at Sky Gold. Thanks for the heads up David.

          Feb 08, 2021 08:48 PM

          Freegold Airlines also has a copper, gold, silver property, at Shorty Creek. They have signed an agreement with South 32 whereby South 32 must spend $10 million for exploration in the first four years. If South 32 wants 70% of shorty they must pony up $30 million total.

            Feb 08, 2021 08:23 PM

            DT – Great points on the base metals at Freefall Airlines. South32 is definitely one of the big boys in base metals, and an excellent partner to have spending some dough.

    Feb 08, 2021 08:38 PM

    I said on Saturday that I was outright bullish and that “Monday will probably finish up significantly” and my SILJ finished up 3.27% (up 10% since my Thursday morning purchase).
    I like what I see…

      Feb 08, 2021 08:42 PM

      That is promising that SILJ closed above that trendline resistance, and good call on today being a green day in the Silver miners Matthew. Many of my silver stocks were up 5-10% today, so that is quite encouraging, after the sell downs the end of last week.

      Feb 09, 2021 09:13 AM

      You certainly nailed the buy date Matthew here’s hoping it leads to a nice break to the upside

    Feb 08, 2021 08:43 PM

    You want collusion and corruption…..

    Feb 08, 2021 08:56 PM

    Top 10 Reasons Why Pullbacks Are Like Santa Claus, The Easter Bunny And The Tooth Fairy

    Feb. 07, 2021 – Avi Gilburt – Seeking Alpha

    here are the top ten reasons why pullbacks in the SPX have been like Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy:

    10. They all come once a year.

    9. They are all lies told to children.

    8. They all bring joy to people.

    7. Every once in a while you make 5 dollars off them.

    6. They all provide short term rewards that quickly fade.

    5. They all bring me to my happy place.

    4. They only come out at night.

    3. They all scare the heck out of some people.

    2. If you lie awake waiting for them you’ll be sorely disappointed.

    And, the number one reason why pullbacks in the SPX have been like Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy:


    “There is no question that this market has been stingy with pullbacks, as we have yet to see a single pullback provide us more than a .382 retracement of the prior market move since we struck the low last March. So, yes, it certainly feels as if pullbacks no longer exist in the market.”

    Feb 08, 2021 08:26 PM

    Earliest Possible Swing*

    Gold and Silver
    Top: Thursday (11 Feb)
    Bottom: Friday (12 Feb)

    Top: Tuesday (9 Feb)
    Bottom: Tuesday (16 Feb)

    *Plus/Minus One Day

      Feb 08, 2021 08:28 PM

      Saturation Timing and Trade System (STATS)

      Qualification is determined via Seven Factors.
      Each must have one of two characteristics:
      Partial Saturation or Maximum Saturation.

      The 6/7 (Max/7) of 27 Jan is the strongest Low this year. The 1 Feb High did not qualify. The 4 Feb Low of 3/7 was a moderate Low retest of 27 Jan.

      Swing Bottoms are verified when a High is first Qualified.
      Swing Tops are verified when a Low is first Qualified.
      Bottoms/Tops may continue Lower/Higher.

      *Only the early January Swing Top has been verified.

      Data Sources
      Gold: GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU (GDM as Tie Breaker)
      Silver: SIL-SILJ
      Uranium: URA-URNM

      Feb 08, 2021 08:36 PM


      Earliest Possible Swing*

      Gold and Silver
      Top: Thursday (11 Feb)
      Bottom: Wednesday (10 Feb)

      Top: Tuesday (9 Feb)
      Bottom: Tuesday (16 Feb)

      *Plus/Minus One Day

        Feb 08, 2021 08:44 PM


        Gold and Silver
        Top: Wednesday (10 Feb)
        Bottom: Thursday (11 Feb)

    Feb 09, 2021 09:48 AM

    Range adjusted. Second Piano Pattern.

    Feb 09, 2021 09:06 AM

    hi BDC
    I’m a newbie, trying to understand what your stating.
    Maybe you could explain the significance of the piano pattern, and more importantly where is it on the chart? Im assuming its related to the green candles but I’m not sure.

      Feb 09, 2021 09:19 AM

      Will do later today.

      Feb 09, 2021 09:24 AM

      Questions/comments appreciated.
      The first Piano is at 14-19 January.
      Its ‘keys’ define a range of support.
      This eventually gave way on 4 Feb.
      Then the second formed (4-8 Feb),
      better seen on a 2 or 4 hour chart.

        Feb 09, 2021 09:25 PM


    Feb 09, 2021 09:22 AM

    Hit on PMs at about 8::15 or if you prefer, a bunch of sellers decided to dump a bunch of commodity futures contracts all at the same time without regard for price….again.

      Feb 09, 2021 09:23 AM


        Feb 09, 2021 09:43 AM

        They continued to sell after open because…because they wanted to lose more money, faster while things were headed down. Or, could it be someone who cares nothing about price and only direction. The beat goes on (this is the part where everyone sings), the beat goes on….

    Feb 09, 2021 09:58 AM

    All Downside Gaps Filled/Shadowed.

    Feb 09, 2021 09:09 AM

    Bought IRVRF, Irving, after drill results. down for me. Cannot open it.

      Feb 09, 2021 09:21 AM

      Yeah that’s been happening a lot lately. CEO needs to upgrade their system. Guess there’s so many newbies on there now

        Feb 09, 2021 09:59 AM

        Good drill results by Southern Silver also. Looks by the # of holes being reported by many of the miners that the labs are starting to get reports out or some have been sitting on the reports waiting for a better moment. Today is not a great moment but some of Matt’s charts have been positive.

        Feb 09, 2021 09:39 AM

        Yes, I struggled with connecting at all morning, but it’s up now.

        There are 4K-5K people on there all day now, which is 4-5 times what it was just 2 years ago, so maybe they are having growing pains. At least that is a lot of new small cap investors gathering and sharing ideas.

    Feb 09, 2021 09:52 AM

    I guess people have heard Mr Musk bought 1.5 billion in bitcoin and intends to accept it for Teslas.

    Is Apple About To Announce A $5 Billion Bitcoin Purchase? One Bank Thinks So

    I wonder how many people are going to be concerned with gold with this happening.
    Ya cant blame people for buying bitcoin over gold.

    Feb 09, 2021 09:54 AM

    Is Bitcoin A Ponzi Scheme? Point By Point Analysis

    Feb. 09, 2021 – Lyn Alden Schwartzer

    “This article takes a serious look at the concern by comparing and contrasting Bitcoin to systems that have Ponzi-like characteristics, to see if the claim holds up.”

    “The short answer is that Bitcoin does not meet the definition of a Ponzi scheme in either narrow or broad sense, but let’s dive in to see why that’s the case…”

      Feb 09, 2021 09:06 PM

      Awesome article… Thanks for sharing

    Feb 09, 2021 09:25 AM

    Other than India outlawing bitcoin, until other governments do the same it kinda is looking like a person might want to own it.

    Is it possible bitcoin does destroy centralized currencies?

    Feb 09, 2021 09:29 PM

    It may be possible that blockchains can be destroyed.
    They depend upon both people networks and the web.
    The Utah Data Center supposedly mirrors web activity.
    Alter a protocol and then refresh the web accordingly?