Markets and rates continue higher while gold drops
Octavio Marenzi, CEO of Optimas LLC joins me to share his thoughts on the overall strength of US markets after the weakness for most of last week. It continues to be the re-opening stocks leading the move higher. We also look at the bond market where the 10 year is back above 1.6% and what this is impacting. Finally we discuss gold’s move and Bitcoin creeps into the conversation.
Please look at the long-term chart linked to below that shows the correlation between the U.S. gold price and the inverted yield on U.S. inflation protected 10-year Treasuries.
Here is the excellent article that references the graph:
https://thegoldobserver.substack.com/p/why-the-gold-price-is-sinking
Now think of all the websites screaming “buy buy buy gold” all the time, for years. Yet all they had to do was look at this one simple chart to predict price.
Here is my BIG issue. We know that CPI is fraudulently calculated and is used in the calculation of the TIPS yield. We know that the base 10-year yield on Treasuries is indirectly controlled through the actions of the Fed via their short-term interest rate manipulation and past QE operation “twist”. In other words, there is no true price discovery for Treasury yields. So, given this information, why would the price of gold continue to tightly correlate to the bogus yield on 10-year TIPS treasuries?
And the far more important questions is, when will the gold price break free of the paradigm revealed by the graph? My theory is that it won’t until the very point that the currency fails.
Sach, thanks for this unusual chart.
Yes, good charts Sach and yes the TIPS yield (10 year % – CPI %) (aka Real Rates or
inflation-adjusted rates) does correlate closely with Gold price movement as we’ve mentioned a lot lately. As for why the price of gold would track it so closely, when the 10-year TIPS price discovery is “managed” by the Fed, and the CPI number calculation is crap when looking at true inflation, is because that figure of real rates is what most institutional traders, and automated trading algorithms are keyed off of.
At one point the central bankers may lose control of inflation or their ability to control the longer end of the curve with something like an Operation Twist, will have less impact, and then there may be a decoupling. However, for right now this is a convenient way for them to manage multiple factors (inflation, treasury yields, and gold pricing) all in one swoop.
Gold: Hunt Continues for Bottom in $1,600 Territory
By Barani Krishnan – Investing.com
“To say that gold’s price action is unimpressive is an understatement. Gold is climbing the stairs on one leg while descending by jumping out of the 10th-floor window,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior markets strategist at online brokerage OANDA.
With bond yields benchmarked by the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the the dollar — gold’s archrival — spiking again Monday, the shiny metal could remain on “life support”, Halley said.
“If dollar strength continues, a fall to $1600.00 an ounce is entirely possible later in the week. Gold needs to recapture the $1760 region to suggest that the worst is over.”
The greenback is up 40 pips today.
US Dollar Index Futures 92.388 +0.398 up 0.43%
The US 10 year is continuing to push higher up 2.5% on the day at around 1.6%, which is continuing to further depress the precious metals prices.
United States 10-Year Bond Yield 1.594 +0.040 daily change 2.59%
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield
Ex, technically, SAND is one of the best looking plays currently. I hope it drops back again so I can add more at lower prices.
Yes, agreed Doc. I’d be happy to add more if SAND got down to a $5 handle. I had added 2 more tranches in February at $6.27 on the 4th, and then $6.11 on the 26th.
I can see why this guy is so dreary as others are starting to be. We are light years away from a major rally—as said before we may get a “bump” in mid to late March but the first half of the year will be “depression time. The largest carnage for the stocks is almost over but then we set up trading ranges for some time. Silver has at least 2 more dollars to fall. I read another “expert” recently that he expected $2300 gold in the 3rd quarter. I don’t know what stuff some of these people are smoking but they better get rid of it before it completely wipes out all their brain cells. The only stock I’ve been purchasing with any fervor recently is SAND since I like the chart better then others that have further pain to endure. Having been negative I’m am still positive in this market since you have to look at a horizon that is still a ways in the future.
Good thoughts Doc, and yes, it will take a little while to dig out of the hole gold has dug at these lower levels and after such a protracted correction, as there has been a lot of chart damage inflicted for the short to medium term.
As for (SAND) Sandstorm Gold, we discussed it a few times recently and agreed it does look like a good value proposition, and I’ve been nibbling as well. Really, most of the larger royalty stocks look attractive at current prices (Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, Osisko Gold Royalties, Metalla Royalty, etc…).
Ex, right on. I’m not concerned with this selloff because I could tell way back in August that we would have to endure something like this. The policies of today are setting up the runs of tomorrow. We may get a spike in this economy after the pandemic lift but unemployment should be persistently high this time around—-money printing will have to continue and we all know the negatives of that—-time cures a lot of things and money printing will cure the PM markets down the road.
There was no shortage of “chart damage” in the crash last March yet the whole sector snapped right back as I thought it would when things were at their worst. Just food for thought.
Agreed, but that was a quick decline and quick V-shaped bounce out of those oversold lows on the pandemic flash-crash last March. This has been a much more prolonged correction in Gold from last August’s high, for over 7 months now, so it may take a few months, to bounce around the bottom, base and then head higher.
This has been a much more normal decline but it is still the steepest in years aside from last year’s crash. In fact, it’s a parabolic decline so it would be extremely unusual if were to go sideways after finding its low, especially under the new, much more bullish technical and fundamental circumstances. The same was true last March (when Doc said the sector would go nowhere for the rest of the year) but much more true today. That’s just not how bull markets behave in any sector but especially the gold sector.
I predict that the miners will return much better leverage to the metals in the coming move than they did last year since the new floor will be so convincingly high. There are cash cows everywhere now, even with gold $400+ off its high. Whether gold bottoms now or a week from now after a bounce, I doubt that the process will eat up more than another few weeks. Gold won’t have to get anywhere near a new high for the miners to take off.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30336324256&a=688605966
Well that sounds much better to bounce more meaningfully in a few weeks versus a few months, and I love the sound of the miners outperforming the metals better than last year, as the lack of the normal 3:1 or 4:1 leverage in the miners, while the metals raced higher was a bit of a letdown.
At this point, I’d be thrilled just to see the miners take the lead and start outperforming the metals on any new uptrend, as this correction has already ground down many investors and sentiment is pretty depressed across the sector. This is par for the course (or the curse) with the PDAC underway.
Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights at the March 2021 Virtual MIF
“Gold Market Update – Yields, Supply/Demand, Majors and Juniors”.
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
Gold never did facilitate people’s dreams of great wealth and prosperity. It’s like a lottery ticket. Very rare occasions but this is normal characteristics of this market.
I’ve been a major participant in precious metals, gold mining equities and even esoteric extremely rare museum quality rare coins for many decades.
Conclusion, timing is everything in these markets. You have to be at the right place at the right time. I managed that however there was a lot of character building through all the troughs. The only best times I remember was in the late seventies through the early 80s and then in the first several years of the new millennium. Of course, just after the complete Wipeout in late 2008 that literally cleaned everyone’s clock fortunately I wasn’t in it. It took off from there and nothing’s really recovered since only to revisit major lows especially in gold mining equities.
So, are we there yet. Chances are most likely not could be a long time and everyone’s still dreaming of getting rich even though the statistics are very high that 98% of investors will lose money even a strong gold bull market.
Not to mention all those pipe dream Junior mining companies that went out of business several years ago and people lost every dollar they invested.
Holy; excellent summary—I’ve done well in the PM sector and especially the last run. As you mention, it’s primarily timing and technicals are the only thing that can prevent you from being whipsawed. Eventually the money printing taking place will be a positive for the PMs. The trap many fall into is getting hyped when it happens but not realizing the length of time it takes for present actions to fulfill the appropriate response to those actions, especially when you’ve killed off a weak economy with lockdowns that will prevent an economic rebound that brings us back to where we were prior to the lockdowns.
Thanks Richard/Doc, it’s a great pleasure to hear from you. I noticed you’re very proactive in the market and that’s the only way you can survive in this gold environment that has all these wild characteristics. Even if your proactive, its very difficult and serious challenge. You can fail miserably. A lot of luck doesn’t hurt either, I can tell you that. It would be fun to share all the stories but I would be filling up a lot of space here. Might even be boring and put you to sleep.
I just sitting back right now and I’m waiting for the big fire sale that may never come. Don’t even know what I would do with all the profits because I’m very content right now but it’s nice if it comes easy. I never did consider that because that’s never an option. The only option I know is on the major tsunami fire sales like at the end of 2008. Especially in the gold market, I want to see major capitulation. That’s the only way I made the real major money and anything else isn’t worth the time to be honest. It’s really spectacular and a major rush when you have a significant investment quadrupling every few weeks. I don’t know why that is, everyone likes you and your extremely popular. wink wink
BTW, enjoy all your comments and analysis so please don’t leave us.
Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter presents at the March 5, 2021 Virtual MIF
>> “‘The Current Picture For Gold”
Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO
I wonder if we are running out of sellers.
Gold drops $20 and my shares hardly moved today.
I’ve been noticing the same thing b. With Gold and Silver getting pummeled each day, I was anticipating more fishing line sell-offs, but the miners haven’t moved down as dramatically as one would have expected.
It’s strange that the senior producers and royalty companies (normally where big money is positioned) have led this charge down, and there just doesn’t seem to be as much generalist interest in the PM sector. Other sectors have been much more exciting and profitable for trading the last few months, and so the remaining investors in the PM stocks are likely the longer term bulls that are holding for the longer trend.
On March 8, 2021 at 1:19 pm,
Holy Grail says:
——————————
Holy I sold most my stocks but should have sold all July Aug. When people turn bullish its toast.
Its a part time gig for me waiting around for years for a big move. My guys are bearish for now.
$BPGDM was 100% now getting better at 24%
>>When people turn bullish its toast.<<
Yes, very true. But what is sad is that this is not true for other industries where the sky seems to be the limit on valuation and share prices.
Agreed Bill. We had pointed out last July & August that BPGDM was flashing it’s most overbought readings of 100 as marking an intermediate top, and had mentioned trimming some at that time. However, if anyone had expected a 7+ month correction down this low, then yes, it would have been better in hindsight to have completely sold positions instead of just trimming back some gains.
The (BPGDM) is getting down to lower levels once again and starting to look more attractive.
Bill, I think I’ll hitch my wagon up to yours it doesn’t look good. Your colleagues are astute and sounds about right can’t trust the gold market very often. Especially sour Juniors going belly up. I’m not actually trading any longer but it’s really a treat when the trades just fall on your lap and there’s a big fire sale and you can’t resist. That’s when you know, you’re in the right place at the right time needs to be a real fire sale. Like the bottom in 2008. That could be very possible again because the stock market’s way overextended and we could repeat exactly what happened then. That’s the only time I will put my money to work. Waiting for the market to come to me and there’s actually no greed involved I’m not chasing after money it just falls right on your lap. So for my risk tolerance, we are not there yet. Besides, I don’t know what I’ll do all the profits anyways not worth it. I’m sitting very content right now.
Holy yes we same page for sure im 70% cash.
I got busy logging. Literly just moved in the 350 john deer and the processor. Sharpening the saw and tuning up the saw mill. Yup was born a new logger and still love it.
Ill wait for a real bottom where as people hate an asset class.
Holy Your so bang on as the PMs are the worst and year pass before a major move occurs.. You better get your timing right!!!! Most buy the top. 98%
Doc, Ex, Mathew thanks for comments!!! When I’m on the ferry tommorow ill read more comments just scanning.
Holy, I know I’ve said this before but I believe the bottom in this PM move down will in no way be similar to the catharsis of March 2020. That was an unusual event and it was tough to time the bottom. I believe this one will end with a whimper and then gradually gain momentum over time for the next great push. The good thing about that is it will be easier to take positions without getting whipsawed lower. I’m looking forward to that.
Richard/Doc, thank you for the very sound advice and have to agree with you that’s a real possibility. Before I forget, it’s nice to see you posting on the board. My contention or maybe most desirable its always nice to buy and invest when everything is just been thrown out with the kitchen sink. That’s when there’s no risk. Nothing but buyers left in the market. Sellers are out. No one left to sell !!! Other than that though, fortunately I don’t need any money to pay bills in need of profits or whatever capital gains. Doc/Richard I love to be able to sleep at night. I remember all the times going to bed late because of all the work analyzing my positions and have to wake up very early in the morning to get ready for the markets to open. No bueno !!
However, that’s not necessary now just knowing that it’s all up from there and there’s nothing but green pastures. You don’t have to second guess when you invest your money and I’m never going back to the old days though because that was making a lot of major money with big trades all day including investments rising aggressively in value.
I just want to sit back and enjoy the show, that’s it !! Everyone wants to be your friend …….
Gold has gone lower for each of the last 5 sessions yet GDX is up 5% vs gold since the first one of those 5 sessions. That’s obviously bullish since it would have been bullish if GDX had even remained flat versus gold while gold fell vs dollars. The miners are supposed to provide leverage to gold (in this case, leverage to the downside) but that is bullishly not happening.
GDX:Gold has thoroughly tested its pre-covid base over the last several weeks and looks ready to rise strongly as soon as gold finds its low, which will probably be sooner than I thought considering its unwillingness to bounce.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p64502802680&a=916996423
Just re posting.
Wish i had more time to keep up.
All you guys have so much insight….no shit!
Holy yes we same page for sure im 70% cash.
I got busy logging. Literly just moved in the 350 john deer and the processor. Sharpening the saw and tuning up the saw mill. Yup was born a new logger and still love it.
Ill wait for a real bottom where as people hate an asset class.
Holy Your so bang on as the PMs are the worst and year pass before a major move occurs.. You better get your timing right!!!! Most buy the top. 98%
Doc, Ex, Mathew thanks for comments!!! When I’m on the ferry tommorow ill read more comments just scanning.
Good hearing from you Bill. You’re real busy guy and I understand that so stay safe you here and we got plenty of time to do some micro analysis catching the move. I like your approach bro you’re straight shooter. Very interesting some of the work you’re doing and projects you’re working on. Just so you know, I’m not a trader any longer in the markets. If a big opportunity presents itself I’ll go all in but that’s a real major fire sale where everyone’s jumped out completely. I don’t lose sleep over this stuff anymore like I use to with trading and major positions it’s not worth it I have everything I need I don’t even know what I do with the money when I get it. Making major purchases and everything I’ve already done that and I have no need of anything you couldn’t give away anything to me right now it’s all headaches maintenance etc. It’s not going to own me anymore I already have enough to worry about.
I love the sport though. It’s a lot of fun however there’s a lot of work behind it and that’s not so much fun anymore. At least with a huge positions and trading and all that all behind me now.
Time is more precious than the money right now at this point. I do love the sport though like I said. However the stress and the work is not welcome. Been through all the motions with people’s philosophies and everything but they’re completely misguided about it I can’t go through it any longer. The stress is a killer man and what will I buy there’s nothing to purchase. When I do make a purchase it’s a lot of research and I just don’t spend my money that easily I have to make certain that what I’m buying is the best even in properties location everything views goes on and on and on. It’s needs to be the creme de la creme or I don’t want nothing to do with it. Never a problem selling it either when it’s a rare gem property. I have real strict criteria and I stay with it because it’s been very successful. Too time consuming though anymore that’s with everything.
Richard/Doc, sometimes I forget that I even do own some gold equities that I never even think about. They’re just put away. Never even think about it. That’s what you do with rare coins you just don’t ever consider checking on the prices very rarely and they’re put away.
If my gold equities go to zero I won’t even bat an eyelash because they’re put away. There was a time that I had almost all my major assets in gold equities, rare gems and lots of real estate holdings. I maintain and my strategy now is to be like Mr Magoo. I may not be all in with a lot of major money up to my eyeballs however gold does have a bright future ahead and Mr Magoo here will have a gold equities position that will be worth a fortune one day. If not, it’s not going to change my life and I won’t sweat it because it’s just put away anyway I am not even thinking about it.
Mr Magoo in real estate. The best wealth builder but it takes a long time and you’re looking at 30 years. Fortunes are made because the tenants pay the mortgage and you pay the bank back over 30 years and then you have a clear title and all the appreciation. As long as you’re not taking big right offs that’s what happens because now you have a capital gains problem when you go to sell. All that depreciation and write off has to be added back in to the equity side and then you have to pay taxes. You’re buried in taxes. I have a colleague of mine that’s just buried. Warned many many years ago and he just keeps writing off and now he’s married to major tax problem.
Unfortunately the Mr Magoo real estate strategy is not going to work in my case. Time is more valuable than money now. That’s why I’m not on the trading side.
Free time is, a rare, precious and value commodity. Encyclopedia Britannica. J/K could be WikiLeaks.
On March 8, 2021 at 8:48 pm,
Holy Grail says:
————-
Hi Holy boy are we on the same page!
Money is not a problem and we could buy anything we want.
Although buying new shinny stuff is not the road to happiness.
I come from a family of builders and loggers 4 generation.
I dont care to sit in front of the computer Id rather be building or fixing my stuff.
Moving ahead on the Mini storage as I had the propertyfor years and Im sitting on cash to fund it. I sleep well with those types of businesses. Recession proof among other nice attribues ie everything is a biz expense in my life. 😁
I screwed up and should have started a year ago. Building matts are up 30%. Its crazy these days. Ive got a saw mill so I can produce the lumber I need. $1000 a 1000 bd ft is insane. Cedars worth alot more.
Anywho your right about stress. Trading wads of money is time consuming and stressful.
I like running our business. Got lots of good people I like to deal with.
Cutting lumber building is relaxing to me! Lol
Ok gotta run thanks for your thoughts. Awsome!
Cheers
PS I just hung up the telecom skates after 30 years.
Built a huge part of the macro cell network in BC over the years. On trains planes helicopters it was exciting and I Loved!!!! That gig but the roads for young dudes. Them skates are worn out.
Cheers
My bet is that smart $$ is moving into the best juniors at these levels.
It’s not smart money if it isn’t. 🤨
My way of calling a bottom. (In place of Doc)
My analysis regarding the stock market the spoos or DJIA this is been about 6 weeks ago maybe. I was going back and forth with a colleague I said that I believe it would top around April time frame. Mid to late April maybe. Looks like it could be right on target not investment/trading advice. So anyways I just told my colleague “”ya sell in May and go away””. Furthermore, if it explodes to the upside now currently the time we’re in very strong possibility and odds the top is in. I would like to see the stock market advance strongly between now and mid April for a 100 to 1 out of the money Put options pay out. Could be less maybe 20 to 1 up to 200 to 1 who knows. However, it’s a very rare opportunity because that stock market’s ready to break and I would say into a free fall. Of course, it’s for someone who wants to micromanage the trade and be out before the bid disappears on put options because everybody will be buying calls before it bottoms.
I told my colleague who enjoys speculation that it’s a very lucrative trade however you need to really stay on top of it and don’t overpay for the put options because they can be way overpriced and you want to find the ones that are trading actively.
So anyway my colleague is all in but not with any kind of major money just a nice big profit with a small investment. That’s what I advise him to do because I don’t want to take any heat at least with a small investment it’s not a big deal. He understands all that, still I don’t want to feel responsible for anyone’s losses. I just told him that I really don’t want to do any more trading at all however if it falls into my lap it’s going to be very irresistible at that point. The stock market is going to have to explode into the mid April time frame for me to get excited.
That part I don’t know however it happens I’m going to go all in. On a fairly good size decline I could pull in 50 to 1 at least. Get out early and be done with it. Right now it’s a dreamer trade until the stock market gets going into high gear with significant gains into mid April.
Righty’o Bill, you’re in a very good place and you’re doing what you love. A life of trading, is sitting behind the computer almost 24 hours a day. It’s Non-Stop except for the weekends and even so you’re still researching and it’s a lot of efforts being made staring at computer screens all day. Although, the smartphone has made things a lot easier. At this point my life I would rather do neither. So, I’m not doing it.
You’re quite a guy groomed into the logging business. The mini storage business is definitely a wealth builder over the long term so you can’t go wrong for me it’s out of the question.
I’m on cruise control. No positions to worry about and I just wake up in the morning with my eyeballs never glued to the screen. Peace at last. It was a lot of fun while it lasted though. You have to graduate into something new and you discover all the money in the world’s not worth it. Trading’s not one of them. Not worth it.
Briefly, I sold off everything that was old including all my antiques, fine furnishings, art collections that wasn’t a compliment that would never fit in to my new lifestyle in a brand new property latest in architecture in design. The auction houses sent out the semi trucks and they loaded it all up.. Was a very big decision because I went from traditional architecture and interior design that were old style people were impressed with it but I outgrew it. The decision was to go for the full blown modern retro style high-tech architecture and interior design residence. Super clean and classy look and no clutter. Everything new from ceiling to floor to the exterior. The old school ma and pa traditional is very busy and gaudy I decided to dispose of it all. All I retained was the art pieces that fit in with the modern retro mod Hi-Tech look. I’ll never have to relocate again this is it. One of the best decisions I ever made in my life. Couldn’t be more happy. Have all prestigious designer stores and the best fine dining right here at my fingertips. At this point anyways very little crime and all of the HOAs and even the commercial developments no smoking is allowed on their properties. I can’t be around smoke I can smell it from a block away believe it or not.
I’m probably going to pass on any gold equity investments until I see what the stock market does because after being around the gold market for decades there’s too many fake outs and then it can collapse real quickly 15 to 20% overnight. This could just be a correction however there’s a lot of damage done and we could have a fake out with another leg down.
Stress is not worth it because I’m in for the big trades I’m not in this for scalping some profits it’ll be major money invested. Until something really falls in my lap has noted in my comments on this thread because I like trades that come to me I’m not chasing anything. Experience is the best teacher and that’s where I made the biggest gains and all the money. All the stress just damages your health.
I did some commentary on the stock market on this thread. I’d much rather do that because that’s a lot more profitable x 30. At this point though, it’s just a dreamer trade it hasn’t come to fruition yet. That’s an exceptional trade for someone that knows how to manage that kind of a risk. Figuratively speaking because we’re definitely not there yet.
Really great reading of contributions over the last few days. Helps me consider elements I hadn’t thought of.
I do have a question for Doc/Glen/others expecting a short bounce followed by a long grind/another drop down. What would make you change your view? Obviously, and I know as I type this, the answer is gold/silver prices moving up strong, but I’m thinking more indicators you are looking at to determine whether something is a bounce rather than a reversal.
Thanks
Gold Eagle website has ongoing writeups on PM technicals
Gold update!
To Answer Aetas answer first, we must look at “ The overall correction” in gold and silver to follow.. This does not exclude the miners one bit. As ex mentioned the august high I dictators and moriarty did mention at that time bullish percentage Indicator was extremely high and it took some time but that was an early signal.
We want in to have almost 3-4 months from those august highs to get out during a phase called distribution “ smart money” exiting there positions while many of us got trapped me specifically with my trading positions. No sweat I can wait it out, but make no mistake my game plan totally changed hence why I changed patterns and aborted one of my chart patterns.
You look for powerful volume in gold/miners for confirmation. You look for a blood bath phase yet to happen. Multiple weekly red candles going south and shaking out the last of the weak hands.
We are currently in the declining phase also trapped between a bull trap/return to normal and fear! Ugly spot to be in. We will be entering the capitulation zone shortly and that should happen by next Friday and turn down into that zone. That’s when things will speed up as I mentioned extreme volatility like bottoms tend to happen.
I think that’s when investors are really going to understand that this 7 months grind lower is not going to suddenly end because we want it to, it will end when hope is gone and evaporated. I think April will start to bring in opportunity as for the final phase which will be accumulation phase.
But to answer your point, high volume like abnormal volume, and a breaking of the 50 day moving average on the daily for many of these miners “ could” indicate that. A breaking of the 200 day moving average of these miners definitely would indicate that. I just don’t see that currently. A bit more pain and carnage is needed for the fuel to go up.
Expecting miners to get a jump out of the gate possibly a gap up today before a turn down into Friday. Next week will Bering more highs and end possibly on Friday with a turndown.
Please keep safe and keep dry powder. Don’t let emotions wheel you out of your trades. If your stuck don’t panic. Don’t try getting in and cost averaging as this is super high volatility. Unless you know what your doing.
I’m always here if any questions are needed. As mentioned before I’m not married to any trade but yes I’m married to the overall picture which is we are in a gold bull market which does not discredit the banks/Wall Street from fraudulently taking your shares with there computers.
Best of luck
Glen
Forgot to mention Upside target for gold in this
$1772-$1782 tap and turn
Glen
Good stuff Glen, cheers!
Thanks Glen!
Thanks Glen. I’m hoping this bounce is more than that as I was a buyer last week, due to all manner of oversold conditions. The question is whether this is a bounce or something more. I guess I’ll be watching volume and if we manage to cross any moving averages. If not, sell the bounce and reload lower down.
At least today is a nice green day.
Look out gang Clives latest kiss of death is out. It came to fruition a couple of months back, lets see how this one pans out!!!…Haha, abit tongue in cheek. Just having a laugh.
https://goldseek.com/article/gold-market-update-critical-juncture-now
Hi Holy
I replied to you above.
Ya me same…my holding could go to zero and wouldnt even lose sleep.
My guys say pm bull not over still. Just bearish for now.
Bill, the pm bull is not even close to over or even threatened. The same will be true after the next top but the next top will be a big one.
Hi Mathew. Totaly agree!
Thx
Gotcha…My reply is above Bill.
Bill, never have to eat a dollar of depreciation in a car or truck. Buy new ? unless you have to drive a lot of miles and use it for business which I don’t I have. I have a classic dually truck that eats sissy BMWs and Mercedes every day. Never any depreciation and never goes out of style appreciates every year. Don’t worry about gas mileage because it’s all made up in appreciation. ++++
Meet “””The Beast”” hot rod dually truck. King of the road the only thing I’ll drive.
Hey Bill, just a quick check in because time is not a good friend right now and I see that you’re in the same predicament. Keep all the information coming on your end with your guys and all that analysis in the gold market. I had another post going out to you but it got destroyed I pushed the wrong button and wham it was gone. Once you exit this screen you’re typing on it doesn’t save anything. I could do a paste and copy on another software document however I’m not into posting on forums normally not at all. See how all this goes maybe more time will get freed up. I had a lot of extremely unproductive postings over the weekend. I’m fairly confident that’s not going to happen anymore because my time is too valuable I’m not going to sit here on this board I may as well go back to trading full time. At least I’m getting paid.
I’ll catch you on the rebound. Here I am thinking about what I placed in that other commentary when that post that was got lost and I can’t even think of it now.
Anyway, I don’t get enlightened on what said on this board and when people become more bullish even in a correction I get very hesitant. All I want to see is everybody throwing up their shares and everybody screaming that it’s over and golds never coming back again. When I see everyone giving each other butt slaps it’s not very encouraging and I’m very far from being bullish right now even though I own some gold equities they’re long term I could care less about that I’m worried about the real big money that gets flushed down the toilet I’m not going there. There’s always another train coming through the station and looking at the stock market buying those out of the money puts is an extremely rare opportunity if it all works out but so far no cigar we got to get down into the middle of April with a stock market bolting through the roof that’s what I want to see. The put options will be cheaper than dirt especially out of the money not too far out in the near future expirations. It’s going to be hands on Deck full time and a lot of work for several weeks until the trades completed. I won’t be waiting for a 200 to 1 but you never know you get lucky and the stock market goes into a complete free fall and you could end up with 200 to 1. I’m definitely not using that as my goal and I’m going to be out early and most likely with a 50 to 1 if stocks get hammered enough. Not waiting around too long though. It’s going to be fast and furious. Right now it’s just a pipe dream until that stock market explodes into April mid to late I would like to see that otherwise like I told my colleague I’m not even interested in doing anything. The setup has to be precise and perfect there is no room for error. It’s very high stress and you’re on pins and needles constantly. unless you have money in there you really don’t care that much about but I plan on dipping into the bankroll fairly deep if I do this. My colleague won’t have to worry with a small investment it’s a walk in the park. I got to get the hell out and quick.
This did not end up being a quick check in and so it could be plenty of typos and right now it doesn’t matter to me at all ….screw it all.
Anyway I just wanted to mention the vehicles part because I don’t take in the rear anymore on depreciation I get paid to drive my truck. It’s a classic it’s going to start really catching on and in the near future and down the road because they’re very rare trucks and any kind of condition everything out there is wrecking yard quality. The really really old dooleys are just very ugly and a piece of crap so and they don’t look very good as a hot rod but this one it’s a real attractive design and it’s catching on right now they’re going up.
Up up and away maybe in mid late April. 50 to 1 trade.
It’s a long shot right now. It’s on the launching pad nicely it’s all fired up for the explosion through April. I love the action consistently moving higher every day🤞
Wow Holy!!! Major big changes…thats awsome and I agree with that plan.
You must be a hellofa typer. Im always on the fly working off my hand set.
Im doing stuff because i like doing it… I could make $300hr on the telecom without my guys but dont care about it..was doing $500k a year by mysef.
Ill wait for a big green light before I go all in.
I like your style.
We are more alike than you would believe.
Yup cant fricken stand cigarette smoke either. Terrible stuff.
I never lose on vehicles or equip or very rare.
Backhoes cars trucks all older but mint
I can work on those…dually super cab duramax and super cab Tundra ltd older but cherry.
Bought a 2019 Leaf plus and 3rd electric car.. Sticker was $55k new with mileage at 10k kms imported cost me $31k all in. Great grocery getter near zero maintenance.
Made money on all of my sold vehicles by importing them cheaply. Drive 2-3yrs then blow them out. Vehicles are cheap in the 🇺🇸. Just bought a 5th wheel 5 slider from the bailiff for $25k here in canada.
Gotta run very much appriciat your insights..would love to have a sit down BS!!
Bill, keeping everything in mint condition is key. There’s no excuse for it and can’t manage their money at all because beating your things up and being reckless very poor character but there’s a lot of people out there that do that. I have always kept everything flawless and impeccable meticulous new condition. In a lot of cases better than new. If I want to liquidate something it gets sold immediately. Had one property I designed and cherry picked everything views interior I custom designed and furnished was on a waterway it was a second residence I was living in. It was impeccable you eat off the floor flawless better than new condition the market wasn’t that great at the time sold immediately buyers purchased everything they even wanted all the bathroom towels. All I did was pack up some suitcases and escrow closed with zero problems and no hesitation. No stress whatsoever I went happily on my way. That was one of the better escrows but everything’s like that with all my assets. Every luxury vehicle I’ve ever owned was sold immediately even received a long letter from one buyer thanking me over and over again for the condition they couldn’t believe it.
Then we have a bunch of dreamers who want to get rich but yet they don’t know the first thing about it and to be in trouble very quickly burning money like a drunk and abusing everything. We have a whole society on their way to the poor house homeless encampments with wasteful spending, recklessness and abuse. This is a very foolish generation it’s very pathetic what’s going on right now and it’s only going to end up in a very catastrophic event words can’t even describe.
Rambus says the 10 week MA for gold has dropped below the 50 week MA and that gold could drop to 1475 and still be in a bull market. But Moriarity and Adam Hamilton are now bullish on gold. I guess I can ride out a drop to 1475 if I have to.