Breadth has collapsed for the gold stocks – Where do the stocks go from here?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold joins us to share his updated data on the breadth in the gold stocks and what the short term charts of gold are showing. No doubt that June was a bad month for gold and gold stocks. We assess what a reasonable bounce will look like and the key levels to watch on the long term charts.
Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.
Upcoming KE Report Webinars – On Wednesday July 7 @ 10am PDT (1pm EDT) I am featuring Northern Vertex Mining (TSX.V:NEE – OTC:NHVCF). On Thursday July 8th @ 12-noon PDT (3pm EDT) I will be joined by Tombill Mines (TSX.V:TBLL). Be sure to click the links below to sign up for free and have first access to the recording. Please send any questions you have for either company to Fleck@kereport.com.
Click here to register for the Northern Vertex Mining webinar on Wednesday July 7th @ 10am PDT.
Click here to register for the Tombill Mines webinar on Thursday July 8th @ 12-noon PDT.
Thank you both for working on the holiday……Happy Canada Day!
No rest for the weary… Money never sleeps. 🙂
Yes, Happy Canada Day to all !
Price Quality : Gold Miners : https://tinyurl.com/4nnha2vd
Restructured, with two abreast and archive below.
Will Tuesday’s bounce bottom become more?
Happy Canada day to all, thanks all.
keep the info coming guys , cheers
In the past, I would be in a hotel right now in Saskatoon waiting to take a plane the next day to the arctic circle to fish. However, the fearmongers in Canada are crazier then the ones in the states and I can’t get up there now. Maybe next year if sanity comes back.
It really is surprising just how strict and over-reaching the lockdown policies have been in Canada, but hopefully things will ease up soon and people can get back to a more normal everyday life, get businesses opened up full steam, and get the borders opened back up again.
Equinox needs a surprise dividend manifestation to save it from further plunder to $6.43- 6.63
Yeah, even though Equinox has a good team with Ross Beaty involved, and some good assets they’ve rolled up from a number of other companies (Trek, Newcastle, Leagold, Premier)…. none of that mattered when the poop hit the fan (again) with the blockades at their mine, and a few other operational challenges.
I had acquired a few EQX shares on March 18th @ $8.35 when the PMs had correct, after having sold out of my position at $10.91 on Jan 7th. I was looking for quality producers to during that rough period for PMs and that seemed like a reasonable retracement from the high $10’s down to the low $8s. I got the rest of my Equinox shares for much less than that as a result of the Premier Gold Mines takeover that finalized in mid-April.
Personally, I blew out a big chunk of those combined EQX shares (the ones bought and the ones from the merger) on June 11th at $8.89 for a nice gain. I kept about 40% of the share position in Equinox in place because they had a solid team and I expected the PM space to recover.
However, when they ran into more blockade issues, I was done playing, and scrapped them June 22nd for $7.71 for a small loss on that portion, but still have done quite well in Equinox on a few different trades now, and made some cake in both January and June selling, so overall it has still been a good experience.
However, I had no desire to stick around for more correcting in EQX, as there are plenty of other opportunities in the mining ocean, without having those challenges. In addition, I had already decided to bottom fish a turn-around in USAS Americas Gold & Silver recently, figuring most of their blockade blues in Mexico and Relief Canyon set-backs in Nevada have been priced in at this point. No need to keep the risk of yet another stock with blockade issues, and with Equinox it was the second time they’ve had this mess to clean up. I don’t blame the company for it, but it is an unfortunate development from that local jurisdiction.
Now EQX has cratered even further and ironically I had decided to pick up a starter position again in it today at $6.91. If it falls down to that $6.43-$6.63 level you mentioned Marty, then I’ll add a more meaningful tranche there. Longer term I feel they’ll get it sorted out, but having a “great management team” didn’t spare them a great deal of carnage over the last month or so.
Here is a timely editorial on Equinox based on the above discussion:
__________________________________________________________________________
Equinox Gold: The Los Filos Mine Presents A Major Problem
Jul. 01, 2021 – Peter Arendas
– There is another blockade at the Los Filos mine.
– The operations have been suspended and the length of the blockade is hard to predict (the last time it took nearly 4 months).
– Los Filos is Equinox’s biggest mine and it is crucial for its plans to exceed the 1 million toz gold per year production level.
– The technical picture is bleak as well.
– Although the long-term potential is very good, the near-term share price development doesn’t look rosy.
Good decision ex – seems that you followed my recommendation -:)
EQX below $7 is a no brained on the long run (might take some time to resolve the issue)
Yes, accumulating EQX below $7 seems like good value, and if it goes down in the mid 6’s like Marty mentioned as a potential, then I’d add another tranche there, and potentially a 3rd tranche if it got down near $6.
Nibbled @ AXU – $2.44
Modification time Already on EQX $6.57- 6.17
98% of those in N. America are Vitamin D deficient by 80% in the winter months and still 40% deficient in the April- October months, Northern Hemisphere. And now with the solar minimum in effect, expect the Canadians to still be at risk. Get sunshine 15-30 minutes in the warmer seasons, daily, and all you can the further North you are.
I started tracking my Vitamin D levels on blood tests, and it was low, like most North Americans, but after taking 5000 iu of D3 regularly, I got it back up in a more normal range.
Cameco’s Cigar Lake uranium mine is shut back down again due to fires in the area.
It has really been a hot week in the Pacific Northwest, and things are getting crispy as mild drought is affecting most of the west coast. I’m really hoping we don’t see too many of these fires start back up again this year, like they did last year.
____________________________________________________________
Forest Fire Burns Uncontained Near Cigar Lake Mine In Northern Sask.
Heidi Atter · CBC News – July 1, 2021
“All non-essential personnel have been evacuated due to the fire,” Cameco said in a statement.
“In a statement, Cameco said it has evacuated about 230 workers from the uranium mine with roughly 80 people remaining on site to keep the facility in a safe state.”
“It said the fire is complicated by extremely warm, dry weather resulting from the heat dome currently over western Canada.”
“Production at the Cigar Lake Mine has been temporarily suspended. Cameco said should the wildfire threat continue to grow, there is a plan to keep the workers there safe and a number of precautions have been implemented. It said it’s working closely with the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency on-site. ”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/forest-fire-cigar-lake-mine-1.6087459
I added a wee bit to a few US listed Uranium stocks today (UUUU, URG, DNN) just in case this news provides a temporary pop to U stocks if Cigar Lake is taken off-line longer than expected due to the fire and interruption to production output.
DNN’s blown out share structure should keep anyone with an ounce of common sense from buying that stock.
What’s your excuse?
I’m still constructive on Denison’s overall portfolio of exploration & development assets, they’ll be the next Canadian producer with their ISR development, they have a big stake in Goviex from when they spun out their African assets, an interesting JV with ALX Uranium, and they’ve actually been a producing company in the past, like Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy also bought today, which is not something 90% of the current Uranium “mining” stocks can claim. Denison is also a dual-listed company, which I prefer whenever possible, as the US ticker on the big board allows for far more liquidity, more access by institutional funds, and more visibility to the larger US investing audience.
Here is the (DNN) (DML) Denison Mines Corporate Presentation highlighting the companies asset portfolio, development timeline, and value proposition.
https://www.denisonmines.com/site/assets/files/6081/2021-06-18_denison_corporate_update_-_june.pdf
You are right Joe. Blown out share structure. No excuse for missing that.
I guess if one’s criteria is only share structure (which is not nearly as important as the market cap valuation = # of shares x share price), but the number of shares are not as relevant in my overall investing thesis. Look at how many Aussie stocks have billions of shares outstanding and didn’t stop them from running up multiplefold.
If they rolled the number of shares back 10:1, then would it make any difference to the overall fundamentals. Nope.
>> It is abundantly clear that the “blown out share structure” didn’t do anything to hold back DNN Dension from running 6x over the last year, from the Oct 2020 low at $.30 to the February peak at $1.80.
How in the world did Denison go up 6 times if the blown out share structure was such an issue? (Here’s a clue… it wasn’t an issue, just like it isn’t any issue for any company with legitimate value drivers).
Anyone with “common sense” should be able to see that as well on the chart of the price action in DNN over the last year.
Anyone can ask themselves, how many resource stocks in their portfolio provided opportunities that ran up 6 times over the last year?
I’d imagine it’s a pretty small list.
There are also plenty of companies with a much smaller number of shares out that didn’t perform nearly as well or worse went down over the last year. The low share counts didn’t really help them if the story wasn’t getting a bid.
If a stock can run up 6x in 4 months, like Denison did from late October to February, then the number of shares, is clearly not as big of deal as people are making it out to be.
Trade Denison. Pick your four month period, buy low and sell high. Long term, Denison is a dog…except for a few traders and Lucas Lundin.
I agree with you Terry about trading Dension, just like most resource stocks should be traded.**
The vast majority of resource stocks be they gold, silver, copper, lithium, uranium, oil, etc… have a volatile nature, go through regular gyrations to the upside and downside, and are not blue chip stocks to “buy right and sit tight.”
Most longer term holders of mining stocks the last decade, have seen their stocks go up, then down, then up, then down, and if they weren’t traded during that time their paper gains were there, then erased, then paper gains, then erased. I’m not suggesting that being a super active trader ever day or week is for everyone, as it clearly is not. What I am saying is that there have been plenty of opportunities to trade most resource stocks over the last decade, in almost any commodity, where there were attractive periods of time to accumulate, and attractive periods of time to divest.
**Personally, I’ve been trading in and out of Dension for over a decade, and around a core position since late 2016. Regarding DNN in 2017 I traded it 10 times, in 2018 2 times, in 2019 3 times, in 2020 (my biggest accumulation year mostly in September and October) I traded DNN 13 times, and I’ve already traded it 5 times this year.
Denison is the the most advanced development stage Uranium company operating in the Athabasca Basin, or in Canada as a whole, were prior producers in the last uranium cycle, and the closest Canadian U stock to production, they used to consult and manage the Uranium Participation Fund for years, and they have a 22% interest in the McClean Lake Mill (that processes Cameco’s uranium from Cigar Lake), so hardly a “dog” by any stretch.
Denison always looked good, had some good assets. Switchong to the Aussie miners which you mentioned beforehey all have .5B-1B shares outstanding. I’ve been looking at RED.AX recently, near a low…tempting. But it has over 2B shares outstanding. Every time they announce finding a nugget on their property you got 2B guys looking for a piece of that.
Yeah, (RED.AX) Red 5 Ltd is one I have on a watchlist, and yes it has been chopped in half since it peaked back in 2019, but that isn’t because of it’s 2 billion share count, but rather due the companies operation performance and growth not resonating with investors to push the bid and pricing higher.
In contrast, look at fellow Aussie producer (PRU.AX) Perseus Mining with 1.23 Billion shares out that is up over 300% in that same time period since early 2019. Clearly that large number of shares didn’t stop it from growing in market cap.
Again, same question, if Perseus rolled back the number of shares, does it change anything about the fundamental operations of the company? No.
The number of shares is not that relevant, as the share price will adjust accordingly on the other side of the seesaw to create the overall market cap. There are a billion people trading a billion shares, there are just investors that buy/sell more shares at a time on those due to the lower share prices, so it is all relative.
The market cap (the combination of the number of shares times the share price per share) is what was is the key valuation metric to compare amongst peers, and relative to the production, development, and exploration assets values, in combination with cash & shares held.
correction: “There are [NOT] a billion people trading a billion shares”
PRU is a good one, finding gold, pouring gold, making money. WAF is another good one. TIE is trying to break into that league but wait and see on that one.
West African Resources is a solid and well-run relatively newer producer, and while they had a big run from 2019 into mid-2020, they’ve traded mostly sideways for the last year in a trading range, but that is much better than many companies that sold off hard during that time period, so from that standpoint it outperformed many of the more volatile peers by simply not correcting as much. Conversely, from the current valuation, it is more fairly valued at near the $1 Billion market cap area based on it’s production profile, development projects, and reserves. It does have excellent costs operationally, which gives it nice margins. Having said that, it doesn’t have as much torque since it’s become a producer, and most of the rise in the stock was the “golden runway” between being a developer and going into production. As a result, I wouldn’t think it has as much upside as some of the more beaten down producers or the ones that have higher development growth prospects in their pipeline of projects, or as the smaller more highly levered junior producers.
Could this play out in GDX?
That is absolutely possible but very improbable in my opinion.
I think we’re about to begin an advance that dwarfs the March to June move. (A move below Tuesday’s low would instantly put that in doubt, at least for awhile.)
I’m no EW expert but this seems like the picture to me:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASA&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p47400483103&a=984268795
Sentiment in miners is abysmal so there’s that, it could fuel a big move.
Looks like up is a trend in that chart
We should focus on the long term charts not on the daily noise. Look at AEM it looks like its going to repeat final blow off from the huge cup like it did in 1980 and 1987. NCM is in multi year triangle consolidation typical for this stock in the bull market (pointing to 36 in near future). We are repeating 09 when gold needed to complete the handle, but I have to admit the recent correction surprised me. Maybe it means that gold is gathering the strengh to marginally break ATH during this intermediate cycle which it could not do in 09? For this to happen we would need to get to 1950 pretty fast.
Darlus……… I agree…….. long term, everything else is noise….
Trump just gave cover to the left by saying that he thought the open boarder is due to incompetence and is not intentional. If his followers fall for that, they will fall for anything.
Trumpster… the TROJAN HORSE…. … lol……
Yup, just another sorry busybody.
http://www.shutupandtakemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/presidents-as-karens-meme.jpg
Trumpster looks kind of good…. lol….. 🙂
just joking….
Wonder if, he could be considered a She herder…… lol .. 🙂
Matthew – those were funny, yet disturbing, visuals on the past Karen presidents…
Maybe the U.S. should ask Israel if they can close their boarder.
If Israel says ok then maybe Israel could send a few instructors over to show the americans how its done.
Even tiny Central American countries could show them how its done. The majority of Americans have no idea how preposterous the whole situation really is because they’ve never been anywhere. There should be zero doubt that the people coming in are doing so because America’s leaders want them to.
No doubt about it.
Matthew, it’s good to see you write interesting stuff without calling others sheeple. Thank you.
Dollar Index – Short Term Top? : https://tinyurl.com/76xpzzdb
DXY (5:30) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euwCu_0zayw
Per Michael Boutros, resistance zone top is 92.60; Gold (35:05).
I am waiting for Schwab to run some kind of EOD so I can see how my account did. Whether a US market holiday or a Canadian, Schwab won’t post how the US OTC is doing until after-after hours. Makes no sense.
Schwab finally ran EOD after 8:00PM CST. My miners did good. Overall positive week so far. Very slow trading on open with positive paper PM prices. Almost made me feel they were blocking trades until they could run a counter intuitive algo. We will see if they try to screw-up end of week results.
Volume below normal on a day when the paper physical opened positive. I believe the alternate universe is trading today.
(MMX) Maverix Metals Acquires Royalty Portfolio From Pan American Silver
June 29, 2021
Ryan McIntyre, President of Maverix, commented, “We are happy to have completed the purchase of this gold-focused royalty portfolio from Pan American Silver, our most tenured strategic shareholder. This acquisition adds future option value to our overall asset portfolio which now boasts 121 royalty and stream assets, 13 of which are currently paying and a number of which are on advanced stage projects.”
(SLVR)(SLVTF) Silver Tiger Intersects 4,461.4 G/T AgEq Over 0.5 Meters in the Sooy Vein
by @accesswire on 29 Jun 2021
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/silver-tiger-intersects-44614-gt-ageq-over-05-meters
(SLVR)(SLVTF) Silver Tiger Intersects 4,461.4 G/T AgEq Over 0.5 Meters in the Sooy Vein
by accesswire on 29 Jun 2021
https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/silver-tiger-intersects-44614-gt-ageq-over-05-meters
Schwab showing Silver Tiger down -7.49%. Sure….
I’ve been trying to buy it – SLVTF @ .4233, still waiting
It’s tough practicing patience like Doc is, with so much cash. I’m @ 8.5% cash, near my years low.
I did pick up a 1.5 Tubes of 1996 ASE’s for $45 each at a beach coin shop. Wish he had 100 more.
I got positioned in Silver Tiger last summer, and then bought the tax loss selling dip in December, and have swing traded around the position a few times this year, but am mostly holding it for their longer term drilling/resource expansion thesis.
Personally my favorite sector of the miners has always been the Silver stocks, and there are actually a lot of interesting stories out there and companies doing interesting work, but the 2 exploration/development companies drilling that seem to have really hit consistent high-grade with extensive vein systems on their properties, are Vizsla Silver and Silver Tiger. Thus far, they are the 2 up and coming silver plays that truly have the potential to become the next Silvercrest if they keep delivering and keep hitting as they have been and continue hitting on their other veins.
Here is the Silver Tiger 3D slide deck. Many of the slides can be rotated and moved around for a better viewing vantage point, and in particular check out their vein system (red lines on the maps) and how much more they still have to drill. It could be truly district scale.
Silvercrest is so superior to any 1year from production co. out there. Great Bear & New Found are great stories in the making, but no doubt 4-8 years from production.
I think the biggest sleeper out there right now is Aurcana, in production in weeks and projecting cash flow in August.
An even bigger surprise was Adrian Day in Jay Martin’s Cambridge House roundup earlier this week revealing he really knew nothing about the company. Jay was as shocked as I was.
And then there is ALEXCO GETTING LITTLE TO NO RESPECT the last months before production
Agreed on Silvercrest being best in class in the Silver development space, but that both Aurcana and Alexco are very exciting near term producers. Technically AXU has started production but is still ramping up to full-scale commercial nameplate production. Yes, I’m surprised at how unloved both Aurcana and Alexco are as 2 new Silver producers that are NOT in Mexico. Eventually, I’d anticipate both getting a premium valuation as a result of the jurisdiction diversification in the US and Canada respectively, by investors that are concerned with Mexico. We’re a long way from seeing that type of valuation at these levels though, and I’m quite constructive on the future for both Alexco and Aurcana.
My point was that from a silver exploration standpoint in Mexico, that the 2 companies that are onto district scale trends that may eventually be able to rival Silvercrest are Silver Tiger and Vizsla.
All American Silver Producer Coming Online To Meet 2x Demand – (AUN) Aurcana Silver
Cambridge House w/ Jay Martin – June 30, 2021
“Kevin Drover, CEO of Aurcana Silver Corp, is bringing their silver mine into full production as soon as September. Jay and Kevin discuss the coming global shortage for industrial silver and how Aurcana’s low-cost, long-life silver mines in Colorado and Texas will help meet that demand. Kevin lays out Aurcana’s path to becoming a mid-tier silver producer (8-9M Oz/Year) in a few short years.”
I’m surprised Vizsla hasn’t started contemplating going into production since they have an option on a mill nearby, and Eric S. might be accommodative towards that , much like what GORO did 15 or so years ago w/o studies/ assessments
Maintaining cash for a possible price downturn?
From the interviews we’ve done on Vizsla, it seemed like Mike is very receptive to going into production down the road and will likely exercise that option on the mill as the timeline for doing so approaches over the next year.
June NFP increased — along with the Unemployment Rate !!
I am in awe of Fed manipulative acumen!
Dollar Top (for now) : https://tinyurl.com/76xpzzdb
Great article…….. from 321………JMO
https://aheadoftheherd.com/for-industrial-metals-exploration-its-game-on/