What is it going to take to drive the next move in gold?
Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report joins us to look ahead at possible catalysts for gold. We discuss the current environment of bonds and the USD rising and how weakness in the US markets is also impacting the gold stocks.
Part of me still wants to give benefit of the doubt to that Golden Cross on GDX.
If we finish the day/week right here, or close (GDX is now 34.36), I’ll stick my neck out and say the low is in place.
That would be two thumbs up worthy!
Yeah, it is looking like after a brutal early part of the week, that the PMs and stocks are perking up on Friday to help out those weekly candles. Nice to see some green on the screen today.
I’m unable to follow Ker everyday..
So has Jaguar been addressed as to what is up with it?
It’s gotten within .20 of 61.8%. It also looks like a H&S maby has formed measuring down to possibly 3.xx area?
Thx for insights.
*oops, possibly 2.xx area
* UN-oops, looks like possibly H & S measure to 3.8x, same/close to .618
My useless theory: If interest in physical PMs is so small, then you don’t need to have large red candle sales with repetitive red candles without an uptick, in the paper contract area to manipulate price. Those large dumps trigger other algos. Under a free and fair market, lack of interest would generate the appropriate market. But, intervention is required indicating market price behavior is manufactured and a resulting false impression of cause and effect. My 2 cents.
On July 9, 2021 at 9:19 am,
Matthew says:
If we finish the day/week right here, or close (GDX is now 34.36), I’ll stick my neck out and say the low is in place.
Interesting you say that because I just took a quick peek at the gold price and I will say it quickly, I 100% agree with this statement and further more, if it closes above $1808.90 by market close. Double me down as the low is in.. That would mark a weekly close above an important line!
Glen
We want a daily/weekly close above 169.50 for GLD. For gold it’s 1813.63. Even if we don’t quite get it, the miners will tell us if it’s going to happen next week. I’m more interested in GLD’s close than gold’s.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=11&id=p77171293509
The weekly pivot for gold is slightly lower than the daily at 1811.73…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p12903831193&a=877923791
It would be ideal and most bullish to see a higher low put in for Gold a reasonable distance above the March double bottom.
We’d then see a pattern of higher lows from the 2020 March Pandemic Crash low of $1450.90, to the March 2021 low of $1673.30 earlier this year, and the possibility that $1750.10 low last week was the next intermediate low before the next uptrend.
Gold chart showing these series of higher lows as key support levels:
The Canadian dollar is getting ready for a rise.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81201824975&a=976992598
Got filled at .085 for more Galleon Gold today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GGO.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44313059610&a=947428706
I think this chart shows why this pullback has been so harsh for the miners. Notice that the HUI never touched, let alone tested, its 3 year uptrend support in March. The buying/sentiment/confidence was too great to allow it. One cause of that had to be the bargain price that level represented at the time. Now, 4 months later, that support has risen significantly to allow for a thorough testing of it while most analysts are watching price developments without regard for angular support/resistance levels.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51738450224&a=949257852
In case I wasn’t clear, the harsh pullback happened because that important uptrend support “had to” get tested before moving on. It’s similar to gaps; markets don’t like unfinished business. Of course there are always exceptions and their causes tend to be bullish or bearish.
Thanks Matthew. More good charts that give us hope.
K92 turned up precisely and impressively at its 50 day MA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p00383333370&a=988774876
Probable (and perfect) double bottom for HUI after hitting fork and MA support over a week ago…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69905375000&a=982826709
The current weekly price candle for HUI vs Gold is indicative of a turn – and at the confluence of two important supports:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p92549508649&a=982079501
Bonzo just bought more NULGF. The drills are turning and could find another Betze-Post in the Nevada hills.
Matthew, I wonder if Galleon@.085 will do as well as NULGF@.101 ? I hope they both go to $5 or $10.
I wish I knew the answer, Bonzo!
Lol it’s literally at the number I mentioned $1808.90 why I mentioned the importance of it.
Now close above it 🤞
Similar to Matthew I have any daily close next week above $1814.89 imo will ignite an impulsive weekly move as high as or close to 1878.18
Best of luck to all
Have a great weekend I will be back on Monday
Glen
IPT vs SLV finished the week above two important and similar supports:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ASLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p96773407298&a=947555240
3 Exciting Junior Silver Miners
Jul. 09, 2021 – Don Durrett
– AbraSilver Resource Corp.
– Guanajuato Silver
– Silver X Mining
A guy over at ceo.ca @pizdets17 and on twitter has taken issue with some of the data on Guanajuato Silver in the piece that Don D. put out on the 3 silver stocks as follows:
____________________________________________
TheWarrantWhisperer (aka @pizdets17) 2:12 PM · Jul 9, 2021·Twitter Web App
To @DonDurrett: “Please get facts straight. $GSVR cash on hand is NOT $2m. Its $5.1m They also will draw down their $7.5m USD credit facility soon here. THEY DO NOT NEED A RAISE, as your article on Seeking Alpha states. @GSilver_co ”
It was nice to see (EXN) Excellon Resources up over 14% today.
It was also nice to the vast majority of the Gold and Silver stocks in my portfolio, and on my various watchlists all up nicely in the green today.
Wishing everyone here at the KER good trading as always.
UK………. changes rules on Basil III…… I posted an article in another section….
I ate a four egg omelette with lots of cheese premarket and all my stocks went up.
Interesting. I ate a 3 Egg scramble with veggies, salsa, hemp & chia seeds, and lots of cheese in the early afternoon with the market still open, and most of my stocks went up. I’m wondering if I’d have added a 4th egg if that would have done the trick?
Eggs and cheese the brain food for dealing with this market. You’re bound to have some red given the number of stocks you carry. Even my watchlist was all green except for VGZ. Glad I never bought that one.
Absolutely… need that brain food. Yes, I’ve never owned VGZ either, but I have noticed it selling off more recently (which is par for course with many of the gold stocks the last few weeks).
I’ve actually made $$ on VGZ. Getting down to where it might be worth owning again. Anyone notice that Doc is never around to call a bottom? (Not so sure this is it)
Thank you Buzz, I’ll keep an eye on it. People don’t think they will be able to advance Mt.Todd.
Over last 10/20 years many people who have 401K, annuities, pension funds and saw thier wealth increase last 12 years in stock market they are now chasing this bubble out of lack of no real other place to put money.
Eventually bubble will pop, stocks will either enter big sell off and gold, miners will take big hit if it’s a crash sell off but will recover fast, or no crash and just sell off over few months and enter bear market gold, miners will get their breakout.
This could be last washout in metals and just need to wait another 2-3 years before gold gets to new highs and sustain that move.