Metals Stock Commentary – With conference season starting here’s what to expect for the sector

September 2, 2021

Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky joins us to share his thoughts on the metals investment conferences that are coming into full swing starting next week. Finally back to face-to-face meetings Dave sees the potential for some M&A deals to happen. He also shares what he is going to be asking to all the companies he is meeting with.

Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to keep up to date on what Dave is investing in.

    Sep 02, 2021 02:49 PM
      Sep 03, 2021 03:06 AM


    Sep 02, 2021 02:50 PM

    BRIEFLY : Gold rises when CONFIDENCE collapses, not the rise and fall of QE and interest rates in the normal course of business. We must look to the general public. When they wake up and realize that there is no way this COVID nonsense will ever end because they are deliberately using it to seize the economy and transform it into this Great Reset where governments will no longer borrow money – just print. They intent to default on all public debt and replace even pensions with Guaranteed Basic Income. They are moving toward these end goals step by step so the people do not realize what is taking place.

    EVERYTHING ELSE IS COMPLETE B.S. except for China’s new world’s reserve currency brought to you by China’s enormous gold reserves and the silk road project as a main driver.

    NOVO still can’t get out of bed and it needs a NYSE listing. DOA dead money

    TELL ME I’M WRONG !!!!!

      Sep 02, 2021 02:00 PM

      Gold’s price is most dependent on Dollar strength. For now.

      Sep 02, 2021 02:53 PM

      HG, I’m telling you….You’re absolutely right!
      Another one, USAU with average daily volume of 28,000 shares, is going to have an difficult time raising money @$9/share, especially with nothing new on offer. Copper King(CK), is decades old and they keep reheating it like left over pizza.

        Sep 02, 2021 02:11 PM

        Terry, I believe you. That’s your expertise. Sounds like Novo. Dead money. Your reward for holding the stock isn’t even a slice of pizza. Bleeding red ink.

        The only thing I’m looking at is the trend. Picking individual stocks for a gain with a trend that’s going nowhere right now.? Small companies are fine however I need companies that are listed on the NYSE or the Q. With the trend that’s up. We’re stuck right now that’s due to change though, timing is a factor. Timing is everything.

        Just depends on how much capital you’re playing with. You can’t take big positions in otcs and all these others with lack of liquidity.

        Those that are day trading it’s a different story. I don’t want to spend my time with it. The statistics aren’t good. Very very few are successful with it. Over the longer term. Everyone gets their lucky breaks. Sometimes.

        I traded a lot in my life too much work. Big block trading.

          Sep 02, 2021 02:34 PM

          Ditto……… Timing is everything…

            Sep 02, 2021 02:02 PM

            Some time ago I said wouldn’t buy NVO unless it went under $2. Doc answered, said it’s going sub $2. Not long after I bought lots at $1.97 and sold a day or two later at $2.15-2.20
            It’s down again now maybe good for a trade.

            Sep 02, 2021 02:31 PM

            Terry, could be regarding Novo. My odds have to be at least a 95% not on a day trade though however I need to come out on top over at least several weeks. I really don’t want to take any more heat than about 5%. That I can handle and realize it there’s needs to be some room to play. All depends on the setup and the stock or if it’s futures it’s just all over the place however needs to be at least 95% odds coming out with a hands down winner. If I was just going to play something or a quick trade and I wouldn’t waste my time personally. I don’t like stops for the simple reason as you know you get taken out then you lose money you need to go back in and lose more money. So, that’s the game I don’t play I just pick the winners and let everything else pass me by. The strategy, let all the opportunities come to me I don’t chase anything. All my setups are rare opportunities. No exceptions. However, if I was going to chase something like Novo and I realize the stock is down so you never know maybe a good time to take a stab at it. It’s definitely not a setup for me. Doesn’t meet the criteria above in other words. Ha Ha to be honest, I don’t know what this stock’s going to do Novo and I wouldn’t purchase the stock. Looks like it’s trending down and no NYSE listing.

            Taking a stab at Novo, I would put a sell stop in and how far down that would be up to someone that wanted to gauge exactly how much they want to lose by playing this setup.

            You’re well aware too, that sell stops are useless if they stock opens up and gaps down past the sell stop.

            Anyway, that’s my take on everything. I only specialize in really rare opportunities.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:05 PM

            Hey suckaaa, you missed it by Long Shot.

            Too anxious to make money. Desperate traders. WackaTrade !!!!

            Sep 03, 2021 03:09 PM

            Post above for ootb reply to his message above 4 up

          Sep 02, 2021 02:49 PM

          HG I have plenty of producers bought at higher prices but they all are NYSE and have good options markets so I managed to keep my head above water by selling calls, no matter the price.

            Sep 02, 2021 02:07 PM

            Terry, that’s a excellent option to hedge your bets writing calls against the stock you own outright. If the market is just trading sideways and heading down especially that’s a real good hedge. I never wrote calls or anything like that on my stocks that I owned out right.

            I’ll tell you what, I got arbitraged on many calls and puts I wrote on certain stocks. They didn’t like me making money I guess on options lol. They exercised them.

            I was always big in futures. So, that was just chicken feed writing options. I didn’t worry about it, just another day in the park.

            I was writing naked call and put options so that was risky but I was always a high risk player. That was my nickname and wiz kid.

    Sep 02, 2021 02:07 PM

    The confidence has to collapse, before the dollar collapses. The driver is the confidence. Golds not going anywhere. It’s going to stay in this tight trading range as long as it takes for this to occur per my comments above.

      Sep 02, 2021 02:08 PM

      Yes, and destruction of confidence in crypto could end its reign. For now.

        Sep 02, 2021 02:38 PM

        That’s not helping gold at all. We’re going to go into a crack up boom we’re on the cusp of that now. A monumental inflation boom could raise it’s ugly head very quickly in some cases even days and within weeks and then the confidence is lost and everyone gets rid of their cash. That’s when you’re going to see gold just go parabolic. It could come very quickly. This is a guaranteed event no question about it Mises economics. Extremely accurate with this situation we’re in. 🎯

        The cryptos will probably rally into some kind of stratospheric numbers I suspect.

        Doesn’t mean to say there won’t be rally’s here and there but it’s locked into a trading range within a couple hundred dollars until some of these catalysts kick in with gold. China’s world reserve currency is another one.

        This is only part of the story though. There are other factors out there and enormous risks however I won’t elaborate on those perils.

        We had a catalyst for gold because it was way oversold and now we’re stuck in this trading range and we need a new catalyst and that will be the confidence that’s lost in the system completely the dollar people would want to unload them for anything and that’s what’s going to happen.

          Sep 02, 2021 02:40 PM

          Speed is a given. Timing yet unknown.

            Sep 02, 2021 02:43 PM

            👍👍 precisely. “Indubitably”

    Sep 02, 2021 02:05 PM

    Uranium. Icarus or Phoenix?

      Sep 02, 2021 02:42 PM

      A Bitcoin-Like Opportunity In Uranium?

      Sep 02, 2021- Submitted by Adventures in Capitalism

      “I bring this all up, as I see a similar phenomenon in uranium—a much smaller and less liquid market, potentially creating a more dramatic effect should inflows accelerate.”

      “How large are the above-ground stockpiles? No one knows. All we know is that they’re drawing down rapidly and outside of government entities, most of the stockpiles are spoken for by utilities, which are using their uranium to fabricate finished products for their reactors. However, a new class of investors has entered the market and they’ve completely upended the equilibrium.”

      “Remember, no one ever needs a bitcoin. Everyone who is long Bitcoin is a potential seller and on the way up, they’ll all eventually sell. Uranium is different—almost everyone who owns uranium today, owns it because they intend to consume it in their reactors—these owners are all incremental buyers going forward. In a market with a deficit, they’re all implicitly short uranium. With an entity buying up the free float, they’re going to get squeezed. We all know how squeezes work, but I don’t know of any similar scenario where the squeeze was as aggressive or blatant. The utilities are blissfully unaware, they’re eventually going to panic and pay any price for uranium as a reactor that runs out of uranium is just an expensive paperweight.”

        Sep 02, 2021 02:29 PM

        The Uranium stocks rocketed higher on Thursday with the vast majority up 5% – 22%.

        (URNM) the Uranium Miner ETF was up over 9% on the day.

        It was a really big day for the U stocks and some nice market action for sure, and I’m surprised we haven’t seen a few more comments from investors pulling down some nice gains lately (including today).

        They’ve been one of the standout sectors in my resource portfolio over the last year, and we just don’t see very many people discussing them here lately.

        Are there any investors in the KER crew that still hold some Uranium stocks in their portfolio?

          Sep 03, 2021 03:01 AM

          Uranium Market Insights with Justin Huhn of Uranium Insider

          Mining Stock Education – Aug 31, 2021

          0:00 Introduction
          0:30 Uranium investor sentiment
          2:50 Sprott physical uranium trust price action
          8:06 Any political movement have you concerned as a Uranium investor?
          10:04 Disconnect between EVs and nuclear energy generation
          12:00 What nations are promoting nuclear energy the most?
          14:13 What to look at for a rising uranium price
          17:59 What is your exit strategy?

            Sep 03, 2021 03:32 AM

            No doubt, uranium has done real well. However, so has a lot of sectors. Coal has done extremely well. Technology retail has also done extremely well. Oil and gas production including tires.

            We’re in a crack up boom. Just getting started. Once confidence is lost in the purchasing power of the dollar and that’s coming. Unless other extreme risks and perils take hold. Although, this crack up boom is really something that needs to come to pass. It’s now all baked in the cake. It’s not going away.

            Gold equities have been overlooked recently that spells opportunity. Even cryptos have done real well in the last several weeks and one in particular I was going to purchase ripple XRP it’s doubled in the last several weeks and it’s done the best. It’s overlooked too.

            Whatever floats your boat there’s a lot of opportunities and there has been many sectors that have done a really really well not just uranium.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:52 AM

            Agreed Holy Grail. I never implied or stated that Uranium was the only sector that has done well, and was simply noting it has had a really good run over the last year, and the Uranium miners had a really great day today.

            Overall, this site is more focused on resource sector investing, but there are a lot of different commodities to follow, and was just checking to see if folks were still invested in and interested in the Uranium sector.

            It helps us to know what kind of interest there is some of these more niche sectors for show topics, the companies that we reach out to for interviews, and some of the pundits we bring on the show.

            Considering how well Uranium stocks have done over the last year for mining stock investors, and especially on days like this, one would have expected to see a bit more posting on the recent move; if investors were seeing those gains in their portfolios. We did get a few emails to this effect from listeners, and there was more discussion about the blast higher in Uranium stocks other forums, but not so much on the KER blog.

            Personally, I hold a pretty large basket of stocks across a range of commodities in my trading account, and 7 out of the 10 top gainers on the day were Uranium stocks, so it definitely caught my attention and stood out amongst a mediocre day in many other mining stocks broadly. If other investors were reasonably positioned in the Uranium stocks and also saw those kinds of gains today in their accounts, normally there’d be more chatter about it on the blog. Just curious if folks are still following this sector.

            We regularly discuss many of the sectors you mentioned like tech, oil & gas, cryptos, etc… with the generalist fund managers and economic thought leaders that we bring on as show guests every week.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:35 AM

            Thanks Ex, I was just saying that there’s been a lot of opportunities and yes I did forget to mention that uranium stocks could go ballistic I don’t rule that out at all. They’ve already had a decent run so they’re not really something I would speculate on even if they did go ballistic. For others though, it’s a great opportunity. My trading rules just won’t allow it. That held true for Bitcoin as well. No FOMO. I would never invest in anything that I don’t fully understand. Whether it’s a worthless bubble or not I don’t want to find out the hard way.

            You do a fantastic job on covering a lot of the resource stocks and everything. There’s a lot of ground to cover and it’s overwhelming. Any debates with me are welcome because that’s the only way you can discover the facts and the truth.

            This era that we’re in with the crack up boom. Whether it truly comes to pass or not and unseen forces of a greater magnitude put the brakes on everything. I’m much more concerned about what follows. Again, the uranium sector could go completely ballistic so like I said I’m not ruling it out. I should have mentioned it.

        Sep 03, 2021 03:50 AM

        Remember no one ever needs gold. Gold, what is it good for? You can’t eat it and you can’t blow your nose with it. Everybody is a potential seller on the way up.

          Sep 03, 2021 03:01 AM

          And they appear to be sellers on the way down also because gold is partially owned by a bunch of whacky people who think they are going to somehow get rich by owning it.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:33 AM

            The central bank’s own it. Not only that, it was reclassified to a tier one asset from a high risk of tier 3 and any bank can borrow money off those reserves now.

            I agree though, there’s a lot of wacky people but that’s very far few and in between now. The general public is not in the precious metals all their money is in stocks and real estate.

            Again though, timing is everything.

          Sep 03, 2021 03:17 AM

          They’re beautiful paperweights ?

          We’ll Terry, there’s nothing like a gold rush though. Timing is everything.

          This is really nothing new with the bubble we have now. Many of the gold stocks that were on the exchanges of some of them we’re complete garbage. I’m going to go off memory now, a lot of them went up in multiples of 10,000% it was crazy this was in the 1970s.

          Gold fever is in the que unless something really catastrophic happens and there’s an outside chance of a cataclysmic event. That event is also in the que ready to be unleashed.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:35 AM

            HG, that cataclysmic event is the one thing keeps me awake at night.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:10 PM

            Ya Terry, it’s keeping a lot of people awake at night if you visit the other site referred to as politics. It’s rigorously discussed. I’m more weighed in on the spiritual side of things than anything else. Lastly, this cataclysmic event is on its way there’s no doubt in my mind and no one’s expecting all the collateral damages and loss of life from all the consequences of all these failed policies. There’s a long dirty laundry list. We have a society that’s completely in a hypnotic state of mind.

    Sep 02, 2021 02:13 PM

    Bitcoin = FOMO = not in the slightest

    It was so volatile and you have to be someone that was just completely in love with Bitcoin to even hang on to it. Everyone sold it and then it just went even higher and higher and higher and higher and higher good grief. A real lottery ticket. Although, everyone will use 20/20 hindsight investing. I could have, I should have, never fulfilling your dreams because it was just too volatile. Personally, if I would have bought Bitcoin at $500 and it went to $5,000 I would have sold a long time ago. Never getting back in like everyone else.

      Sep 03, 2021 03:45 AM

      Exactly HG, I found it at $4, I would have sold by $40, even if I held past thAt $100 would be a huge win so I cant see myself holding to 50k.

        Sep 03, 2021 03:11 AM

        Yes b, very very true and you would really need a passionate love on fire for Bitcoin to hold it into these stratospheric numbers. Bitcoin’s volatility was completely from out of this world. There was just a few people that really believed in it and thought it was going to those stratospheric heights and they we’re right. I remember Bitcoin when it was just a couple hundred dollars and someone brought it up to me and I didn’t really have any interest in it just oh well it’s one of those things who knows what’s going to do. Even so, it wouldn’t have done me any good even if I bought it at $200 I would have been long gone at a $1,000 never looked back and then it goes to $50,000 so it was more of a lottery ticket that’s how I’m surmising it.

        No FOMO here with me. Because I didn’t have that passionate love for it and that’s the only way you could of hung on with all that extreme volatility.

        So, no one missed out. Unless someone had a very very high extreme love for Bitcoin. If they didn’t own it, and didn’t ride it all the way up and they didn’t have a passionate love for it on fire.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:17 AM

    Zijin Mining(2899:HK) is getting into lithium in a big way. With US pulling out of Afghanistan and Chinese making deals with the Taliban, licking their chops at that motherlode of gold and lithium in that country, Zijin will be involved in a big way. Zijin is the go to gold miner in China and now with addition of lithium, what’s not to like?

    Sep 03, 2021 03:05 AM

    Which one of the following sites is being blocked:

      Sep 03, 2021 03:15 AM

      Looks like it posted finally above. Tried 5 times to post in different locations and every time it disappeared. Not sure why, but it was nothing but their address.

        Sep 03, 2021 03:09 AM

        David, the problem is posting two links at once. That sends your post to “moderation” to be cleared. I assume it’s to make sure it isn’t spam.

          Sep 03, 2021 03:30 AM

          Yes, that’s what it was Matthew – the 2 links in the same post sent it to moderation, based on the current site protocols.

          The initial program was put in place to avoid spamming with 10-20 links in the same post, but when we launch the new website (very soon), I’ve requested that we find a way to allow 2 or maybe 3 links in the same post, because there are legitimate times where 2 or 3 links on a related topic would be helpful for sharing ideas.

          For example 2-3 charts on a topic, or 2 related press releases or macro articles, or a news release and a corporate presentation, etc…

          We’ll see if it is possible but the new chat should be better, allow editing, have better search capabilities, and possibly a way to allow more than 1 link per post. Stay tuned…

          Sep 03, 2021 03:50 AM

          Thanks for explaining it. My tin hat has bullet holes in it and doesn’t work as good as it use to.

            Sep 03, 2021 03:17 PM

            Haha! Keep the good comments coming David, as we love getting your input 🙂

            The most common reason for something to go to moderation is misspelling your name or email, or putting more than 2 links in a post. It happens all the time to me, but yes, there is no grand initiative to block certain websites that I’m aware of.


    Sep 03, 2021 03:06 AM

    Mcalvany Weekly Commentary, or

      Sep 03, 2021 03:07 AM

      Wall Street On Parade… or both

    Sep 03, 2021 03:10 AM

    Where is Matthew?,,,bid under gold today

      Sep 03, 2021 03:21 AM

      Oh no…is it Matthew’s fault?

        Sep 03, 2021 03:39 AM

        yes, very quiet with the pundits considering the gold price pop to august highs and 1835 or so resistance. Mind you GDX and GDXJ lagging and have a ways to go with August share price. Jury still out, need a convincing breakthrough, best to watch grass grow for a bit longer.
        Spx due for some kind of pullback, if gold follows as usual then this likely a deja vu all over again

      Sep 03, 2021 03:14 AM

      The reversal and gap on 8/23 should have turned everyone bullish. I said that it was one of those somewhat unusual gaps that we do not want filled and, so far, it hasn’t been.

      Even Bitcoin fans have reason to be happy today…

      Sep 03, 2021 03:22 AM

      Nordgold is going to have issues with Orea Mining, it keeps going up and the billionaires that own Nordgold will have to stick their short arms into pockets that are getting deeper and deeper. You snooze you loose.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:17 AM

    Wheels have fallen off the bus….. fed faked out…. that’s to bad…

      Sep 03, 2021 03:00 PM

      Brought to you by “The Fed” creatures from Jekyll Island.

      creature 🦇J Pow X10 real piece of work.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:16 AM

    SILJ is my favorite ETF for big gains but I like my IPT more.
    IPT priced in SILJ:

      Sep 03, 2021 03:40 AM

      +1 SILJ has been a consistent outperformer of SIL, and GDX, and GDXJ. We saw that in the big blast higher in 2016, the rallies in the PM miners in 2019 and coming out of the pandemic crash of 2020, and often in some of the smaller rallies over the last year.

      Look at the PM ETF moves in todays bullish action off the poor jobs report and weakened US Dollar.

      With an hour and half left still in the trading session:

      GDX up 2.88%
      GDXJ up 3.53%
      SIL up 3.56%
      SILJ up 4.05%

      Like we’ve said for years, if people are bullish on Gold and Gold miners, then they are crazy not be bullish Silver and the Silver miners moving forward.

      As you mentioned though, I’d anticipate some of the more highly torqued individual miners with exploration upside, like IPT Impact Silver to outperform even the SILJ if a solid bull move higher gets underway.

        Sep 03, 2021 03:15 PM

        To that point, today (IPT) Impact Silver closed up 7.69% and (SILJ) closed up 3.6% and up another 1% in afterhours trading (so 4.6% on the day).

        Very nice, and glad I had added more IPT on both Aug 23rd and Aug 31.

      Sep 03, 2021 03:31 PM

      SILJ is good as far as ETFs go but volume is low and options are less liquid.

        Sep 03, 2021 03:41 PM

        Exactly right which is why I also like GDXJ and even GDX.
        (I own GDXJ but not GDX at the moment.)

          Sep 03, 2021 03:10 PM

          IB makes bullish call on GDXJ confirming your view.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:28 AM

    Not surprisingly, the gold miners are finishing the week on a bullish note.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:16 PM
      Sep 03, 2021 03:18 PM

      Hey Matt,

      Ramb dropped all his shorts last week and is buying NUGT, JNUG,UGL and AGQ todays.
      Things are looking better in his books….time to buy hard:)

        Sep 03, 2021 03:24 PM

        Thanks, Confused. I obviously agree with him.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:23 PM

    New all-time highs are likely for the gold miners in 2022.

    Sep 03, 2021 03:48 PM

    What about TAXES. Why do you pay taxes at the federal and state level on your gains ?

    Another subject that is not discussed on the blogs whatsoever. Little known, very very little known tax loopholes, make $10m no tax liability. -000-