Dave Kranzler – Gold, Inflation, Market Manipulation, and Stocks He Likes
Dave Kranzler, Fund Manager and Publisher of the Mining Stock Journal and the Short Seller’s Journal joins us to share his thoughts on the higher inflation numbers and where gold is trading. We get into the bond market and who the buyers are. After all of that we discuss some of the PM stocks Dave likes and how he is trading them.
Click here to learn more about Dave’s newsletters and service.
Inflation. Where’s it headed next year? Opposing arguments on Macro Voices with David Rosenberg and Julian Brigden. Superb listens. https://www.macrovoices.com/
CPI report released: Consumer prices jumped 6.8% in November, the fastest inflation spike since 1982
.
Paul Davidson – USA Today – December 10, 2021
.
“The consumer price index jumped 6.8% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982, as prices surged for staples such as food and gasoline, new and used cars, rent and physicians’ services, among other items, the Labor Department said Friday. That’s up from 6.2%, which was a three-decade high, in October.”
“Last month, prices rose 6.4% annually for groceries, with jumps of 13.9% for beef, 16.8% for pork, 8.4% for chicken and 8% for fish. Gasoline prices soared 58.1% over the past year, rising 6.1% monthly in November.”
“Used car and truck prices shot up 31.4% from a year ago and new vehicle costs climbed 11.1% as the industry continues to grapple with a chip shortage that’s curtailing new vehicle production.”
“Although wages are also climbing as a result of the worker shortages, they’re not keeping pace with the soaring prices, squeezing lower-income households.”
.
https://tinyurl.com/3buum8db
All Eyes on CPI as Inflation Worries Take Center Stage
.
By James “Rev Shark” Deporre – Dec 10, 2021
.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/all-eyes-on-cpi-as-inflation-worries-take-center-stage-15858035
US Inflation Jumps 6.8% in November — Fastest Rate In 39 Years
.
Emily McCormick – December 10, 2021
.
“U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest clip in nearly four decades last month, underscoring the persistently elevated inflationary pressures in the recovering economy.”
.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-posts-biggest-year-over-year-jump-since-1982-in-november-134529314.html
Gold Divergences
.
Variant Perception – Dec 4, 2021
.
“Gold has been diverging from macro and market data. Our macro-driven gold price indicator (a fair value forecast based on macro inputs like the DXY, yields and CPI) has jumped as higher inflation overcomes the negative impact of the strong USD.”
.
https://www.variantperception.com/2021/12/04/gold-divergences/
Peter Boockvar – Falling Stock Market or Higher Inflation: Powell Will Have to Choose One
.
The Jay Martin Show – Dec 11, 2021
.
“Peter Boockvar returns to the show to discuss the Fed’s big dilemma – keep the stock market up or deal with inflation? Jay and Peter also touch on supply chain disruption, Turkey’s currency crisis, gold as an inflation hedge, and how Cryptocurrencies might perform in a challenging stock market.”
.
https://youtu.be/K-mkLfukY6g
The Federal Reserve will keep The Stock Market elevated and tell the public to live with inflation. They have no interest in curing speculation. If they raise rates they will bring about the risk of having a terrific smash in the stock market. That would also make The Fed look like they are deliberately trying to bring the economy down and turn unwanted attention to their dealings. It would also force businesses and the government to pay the new fancy rates. The ensuing disaster would bring about deflation. So to keep speculation alive they must choose negative rates and inflation. DT
100% agree with Dave at the 7 minute mark.
Interest rates hikes are a bugaboo. It’ll be the first thing they’ll walk back/abandon.
Tapering pretty much has to happen, no avoiding that.
Can’t see PMs getting much of a lift unless they back away on tapering or if inflation becomes worse and undeniably sticky. Good time to be picking good miners with good profit margins.
Time is on your side, wait for the fat pitch on good miners you want to own.
I’ve already gotten a couple on sale over the past month, you just need to wait for the setup and have the guts to buy them when the opportunity arises.
GLTA
Hi, could you please ask Dave to comment ,share thoughts , on the smaller, newer royalty companies,
Thanks
Hi SA. Good question.
.
Sure, we’ll ask Dave to comment on the Junior royalty companies in the next interview with him. However, I did throw that question over to him about which stage of company he likes best (Producers, Royalty companies, Developers, or Explorers) and he answered back that for the last 2 decades he’s focused mainly on the explorers, so it didn’t sound like he had much exposure to the royalty companies.
Well, the Cryptos are down again this week, taking it in the shorts, after the hottest CPI reading on record in 39 years. It should be noted that there are not nearly as many calls from market pundits beating their chests about Bitcoin and Ethereum being a better inflation hedges than other assets in this macro environment.
.
Bitcoin is down from $69,000 to $46,600 today for a 33% corrective move as inflation has continued
ripping higher.
.
https://www.coinbase.com/price
If things keep trending in this direction in the medium term, then this comment from Michael Saylor may not age well… It seems a bit much even if the trend was continuing higher in Bitcoin.
.
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1grf84f-saylor.jpg
Thanks for the interview of Denver Dave…sounds like a lot of common sense.
Much appreciated Lakedweller2. Yeah, it was nice to get Dave on the show and get his thoughts on inflation, the PMs, and some of the mining stocks he has his eyes on. Cheers!
Steve Penny also made some good points in his letter this week. Things to watch/likely outcomes with the Fed.
Synchronistically, I just posted an interview with Steve Penny to the KE Report earlier and he does a good review of the Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining charts, as well as discusses how he approaches managing his portfolio. That Silver Chartist is a very sharp guy.
Synchronistically… hmmmmm… ah ….I did that a couple of times at my fourth grade picnic…it did not work for me
Haha! That sounds like quite a picnic.
.
My comments were more on the synchronistic nature of the reference to Steve Penny’s good thoughts by Terry, after having just talked to Steve earlier in the day and having posted his editorial shortly before posting over here on this blog.
.
“1 : the quality or state of being synchronous : simultaneousness. 2 : chronological arrangement of historical events and personages so as to indicate coincidence or coexistence”
Sincronicity: I thought that was Sting, defund The Police
Good one Buzz! 🙂
.
I saw the Police in concert about a decade ago at a large music festival and they played all the hits, and Sting still did a great job.
.
It would seem based on how the PM sector has been sinking that their song about “sending out an S.O.S to the world” may be appropriate for resource investors. Haha!.
.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
.
The Police – Message In A Bottle
.
https://youtu.be/MbXWrmQW-OE
To your point though Buzz…. Here is their classic that ties into the synchronicity discussion…
.
The Police – Synchronicity II
.
https://youtu.be/o5FPPoLqkCk
Second day of Fed meeting starting as another Deja Vu of all other Fed meeting days. Will miners be blamed again for everything good and bad in the world or will it be a normal insider trading day for the Fed Leadership. We won’t know about one of those options.
They were running a sale on Santacruz this morning so I added a few.
I am on a roll today…one stock up $24 on the day. … still got to survive Baloney Bill and Fed Speak. Is that a brick wall at the end of this dark tunnel?
Did Dolly just break out over a head & shoulder trend line which might carry it to $.70-71???