Joel Elconin – Market Commentary On Turbulent Tuesday In Preparation Of Watchful Wednesday
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of PreMarket Prep Show, joins us to share his thoughts on how the general equity markets have reacted to the higher inflation readings in both the CPI and PPI data. Today we dubbed “Turbulent Tuesday” with many of the growth stocks and higher flying reflation trade stocks continuing to get hit, after a whipsaw week where other sectors like the meme stocks, cryptos, and tech stocks hit some rough patches.
We also look ahead to the “Watchful Wednesday” Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow, and how markets often overreact when every word is parsed after the Jerome Powell Q&A session. Joel concedes the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as far as their dual mandate of trying to ensure maximum labor participation while also gearing up to hike rates to fight inflation, all while trying to orchestrate an incremental soft landing.
Why?
Joe appears a little greedy to get his 2 cents in, yet again…
Aussie U miners
VMY -7.5%
BOE -5.5%
DYL –4.5%
PDN +2%
Thanks Terry for the heads up on the environment in overseas trading on the Aussie Uranium stocks.
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I was so distracted from being on a number of calls, and dealing with some of the various setups in the PM miners that I didn’t really focus on the U miners yesterday, but will do so today. It looks like we are finally starting to see follow through on the badly needed washout in the uranium sector. It was waaaay overheated on most weekly and especially the monthly charts and this washout was anticipated and is healthy from keeping things from going more parabolic than they already had. Personally I’ve been waiting for more traction down on this pullback before adding more to positions I’ve been buying back. I’m still at 75% but will deploy some funds today to take it up to about 80%.
Silver’s Time to Shine: Why a ‘Second-Place’ Metal Will Be a First-Place Investment in 2022
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Wendy Hubbert – Streetwise Reports (12/10/21)
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“Even within the notoriously cyclical mining sector, it’s been a crazy few years for silver. After plummeting to a $12 low in March 2020, investor interest and pent-up demand from pandemic-related supply disruptions drove prices to an eight-year high in late 2020. ”
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“Since silver’s volatility can be two to three times greater than gold on any given day, why is Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCMKTS), a growth-stage exploration company, so excited by the conclusion of its 2021 Keno Silver exploration programs?”
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Streetwise Reports sat down with Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Greg Johnson to find out. “This year has been focused on getting our advanced stage targets to a critical mass while also working to push our discovery hits from last year into an advanced stage.”—Greg Johnson, CEO and chairman, Metallic Minerals Corp.
“This district is historically renowned for its ultra-high grade silver veins,” Johnson says. “It has excellent existing infrastructure, including grid power, road access, and nearby community services.”
In support of silver, Johnson cites the high electrical conductivity and durability that makes silver virtually irreplaceable in applications from cell phones and computers to environmentally friendly technologies. Electric vehicles use between 25 and 50 grams of silver per vehicle. Solar panels require 20 grams. “There’s an amazing correlation between the solar panel industry and silver prices. A lot of people may not be aware of is that the number one growth area for silver is solar panels. It’s completely replaced photography. And it’s an annual use that that keeps going up every year.”
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https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2021/12/10/silvers-time-to-shine-why-a-second-place-metal-will-be-a-first-place-investment-in-2022.html
The dollar is set for some significant moves…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50401713551&a=1080906791
Upside or downside move, Matthew?
Both. I expected a break higher such as we got today followed by a reversal that would kick off many weeks/several months lower. I did not necessarily expect the failure to happen today but it looks like it might have. I thought it could rise for at least days and then turn down. Maybe it still will; it’s not exactly broken technically yet.
UUP
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=240&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p97464064092&a=1081180435
I have dollar down -.442 today…good call
Putting this out “there” for fun… IMHO I think the silver price is on it’s way bellow cost of production, maybe not right away but sometime in the next few months. It may land in the $18s, I think the impression of the roaring 20s may be making a comeback, haha. I am in wait and see pattern mostly until January anyways because I have no new $ until then, maybe that is a blessing in disguise. I can be wrong now and only lose what I already have in the market.
Hi Dan. You aren’t alone in being concerned that we could see Silver in the high $18’s or low $19’s. There are a number of technicians that have warned all year that if the $21.50ish area falls (most recent intra-day low was $21.41), that this would open up the trap door down to $18.50-$19. Steve Penny, @SilverChartist, was just on the show and really wanted to see that $21.81 support level hold, or he mentioned it was possible that Silver in the $19’s or high $18’s is possible. Jordan Roy-Bryne has mentioned a few times that he sees $18.70 as support if the $21.50 area falls again. Christopher Aaron mentioned a few months back that if Silver broke down below $21-$22 support that he felt a move down to $18-$19 is possible. There are other technicians that covered a similar range, but if Silver can’t keep it’s act together here, it is teetering the brink of breaking down through current support and it would not be out of the question for your comment about silver landing in the $18s in a few months to be spot on. Personally, I’m still holding out that we may see a rebound in the metals prices later today or tomorrow post FOMC news.
I agree about a rebound but these charts look weak. I listened to Steve and Jordan but Celente has it nailed I think. I’m not taking the bear side for fun but have seen enough charts to know a weak one as opposed to a strong one. I think the usd has one more upleg into overbought territory and the silver chart is ugly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD
If no one else noticed: if the silver price dips to just under a convenient number it will rise above it again then go bellow it. Say the price goes to 20.95, then goes up to 21.20, that is a “signal” that the price is going back bellow that convenient support level. 21.50 may be one of those convenient numbers. My head hurts sometimes…
As usual……. No one knows anything……..when consulting perverted minds…(like the Fed)….
anything goes….
Mumbo Jumbo Fake Fed……….. Clown…. USSA is in the toaster………
The happy talk of kitco/forum gold bulls shifts from how high we go and the wisdom of buying everything undervalued with the metal and producers for weeks and months, to how great the buys will be when we hit lower lows All with technical foresight.
Fact is gold is down a measly 4.5% for the year, yet majority of those producing the stuff have been in a relentless underperformance. Happy talks about drilling results etc from those talking their book won’t change this. There simply is zero interest in gold in spite of positive fundamentals. As they say, if stuff doesn’t react to good news, beware any bad news.
Dollar Week : Pushing North : Pre-FOMC
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/12/dollar-week_15.html
Gold fell into the lower part of the range that I mentioned yesterday before reversing. Will it still make it to its September low like the miners made it to theirs? The next two days’ action should give us a pretty good idea.
Matthew
Dec 14, 2021 14:16 PM
Gold looks like it is heading for 1758-1752 tomorrow and maybe as low as 1730 (briefly).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p89839820092&a=1073778663
GDXJ fell to an area of multiple supports.
Matthew
Dec 14, 2021 14:31 PM
GDXJ broke fork support while making a new low so get ready for more downside tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p72046733935&a=1074224641
Silver made it to important speed line and fork supports this morning (the following chart will update automatically to show it later today)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p36189249726&a=937970450
A weekly close decisively below today’s low for gold/GLD would be bad news and would open the door to another test of the March low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79049604632&a=683083655
GDX came within 7 cents of September’s low before reversing…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73894935763&a=1075655023
I am getting the impression we may have a chance for a good end of week finish.
We sure could use it this week more than most.
HMY dipped to 3.395 and now is a buy in my opinion (not advice). The rest of that October 8th gap (best seen on the 60 minute chart) has been filled and the 60 minute chart is the friendliest it has looked in a long time. If this setup fails, support at 3.25 will probably be reached quickly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMY&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p28532831302&a=985516989
It fell almost 14% since my “timely sell” comment on the 8th and 7% since this following last Friday’s close: “the daily chart looks quite bearish with Friday’s parallel channel breakout and close below the Bollinger bands. HMY just might have 2 to 4 more down days in a row.” Today was day 3, the 4th straight close below the lower Bollinger band. The odds now favor some upside based on multiple factors.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HMY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p21305141591&a=1079610587
HL is also a buy in my opinion. It took out its last daily pivot support as well as a couple fork supports today before reversing to finish 5.5% off its low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p73667844085&a=871262235
It also hit its lowest level in well over a year and did so on its biggest volume in 6 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p32666682975&a=1037810281
If HL finishes the week below today’s low, it will likely be because the whole sector is in trouble. Either way, it would look very bad.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60825243301&a=1068475069
The mining stocks keep going down as if gold is dropping to 1450. Does anyone have any sentiment figures? Ex, Is there a decrease in traffic or in the number of comments here?
I have found the bears to be relatively weak during the entire decline, especially among the tiny caps. There’s been some big drops but without much volume. It’s typical end of year stuff.
Today marked something of a noteworthy shift if GDXJ’s action means anything, and I believe it does. It finished the day 3% off its low on the biggest volume since August 11, 2020, days after it topped pennies away from $65.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p24268473781&a=1081065591
Kootenay Silver is up 28.5% in the last three days…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=2&dy=0&id=p41212368277&a=1021253247
Definitely interesting how Kootenay has traded over the 3 days vs a lot of the other silver plays. Of course it sold off a little more than most……and had that spin off too
The Canadian dollar closed to the penny at the 600 day EMA after a nice reversal…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p02967930397&a=524751879
This is a good level for an important low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14440576939&a=601095568
Like the bounce off of the 200 day MA for always t of the uranium stocks. I was 2 days early. Oh well.Heres Justin’s latest market minute update
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KWdKIJdZQ-Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CQa4iW9Oog&t=321s
Chuck Carnevale makes a good case for Omega Healthcare (OHI).
Once tax loss selling is done, this could be a very attractive buy; with added bonus of 9.6% distribution.
I don’t have the technical skills to time an entry point properly, but for those who do have technical smarts … Happy New Year !
UUP at important resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p48926329749&a=1081263976
BOOOOM!!!
Today’s dump was just the beginning, the big BADA BOOOM comes tomorrow.
PM stocks have another 12 more days this year where they will get EVISCERATED!
Rising costs, lower PM prices…. we’re already seeing the effects on these companies, but the real pain won’t be actualized until the first quarter of 2022.
The longer you wait to sell, the more losses you will take.
Don’t wait.
SELL!!!!!!