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Joel Elconin – What’s the market telling us about Covid, rate hikes and gold

Cory
January 11, 2022

Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep-Show joins us to focus on the early trading action this year in the US markets. We have seen early day selloffs that are bought back by the end of the trading day. Also the reopening stocks continue to hold up while the Covid/lock-down stocks continue to drift lower. Since markets are forward looking we discuss what this early year action could mean moving forward.

 

 

 

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Discussion
47 Comments
    Jan 11, 2022 11:28 AM

    Buy the dip. Maybe a bounce here but could have more selling. Stocks will make new all time highs after next fomc meeting end month. You got earnings season and even if fed hikes in March it will only be .25 hike, that’s nothing, still very cheap money in system and as virus comes off its peak stocks will make big run this summer when everyone gets back to traveling, and getting out spending money.
    Now if inflation is still persistent by end summer and if fed alters it’s rate hikes from .25 hikes and does .5 hike then stocks will crash. Fed can’t get too aggressive with rate hikes that could choke off recovery. I see 2-3 .25 hikes and stocks will have that priced in with this sell off or another test of this recent low after fed meeting then it’s going higher.

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:55 AM

      Paul: You may be right re: buy the dip. I’m sure you are right about the FED. They are trapped! The only way they do more than 3 or 4 0.25% hikes is if they decide to trash the markets. If they do all bets are off.

      Reply
    BDC
    Jan 11, 2022 11:52 AM

    Short NatGas (1st tranche) via KOLD. Second try.

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:59 AM

    Sibanye Stillwater(SBSW) having a good run recently. Maybe they’ll buy PGE.

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:31 PM

      Well that’d be nice as I’m now a holder of PGE as well. Really thought it would hold .40 but I’m usually wrong so……🙄

      Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:10 PM

    Gold and GLD finished last month above their monthly KAMA and are set to do the same this month for the first such back-to-back closes in a year. The rest of the technical picture is also picture-perfect…
    Monthly GLD:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=M&yr=10&mn=11&dy=9&id=t8473689246c&a=637761983&r=1641934370569&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:19 PM

    We should see at least 1840 on this move and then the rest of the month should be important in determining potential breakout. We need a close at least in the 1860-1870 level. Another sell-off from the 1840 level would be lousy.

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:03 PM

      Doc,

      I really hope your pushing for the bull scenario vs further drop. I know your cash heavy. Personally whatever happens the overall picture is lining up nicely. It would be nice for a change to push through and close above that first major hurdle around 1850/1860.

      I’m willing to bet the burger 🍔 or steak you beat Gary on that gold closes much higher this quarter. Friendly bet 🙂

      Cheers doc and how about that iamgold? 😮

      Reply
        Jan 11, 2022 11:27 PM

        Glen, that steak Gary owes me is getting “well done” for all the time it’s been on the grill. I love some technical challenges. You pick a price for gold as of March 31 and I’ll decide if I’ll take the bet of under for a steak. Doc.

        Reply
          Jan 11, 2022 11:45 PM

          Doc that “well done” steak comment made me chuckle. Haha!

          Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:27 PM

    The Canadian dollar looks great and is at a 2 month high…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p47516526408&a=569434196

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:07 PM

      Matthew thanks for the Scorpio gold fork chart. Seems there lights have been off for few days hopefully they turn on soon.

      I’m super bullish and have been on the Cad for quite sometime.. I remain short term, mid term and longer term bullish. I expect Cad sometime in this next bull within the next 4 years to pass the buck and double top I believe 1.11 give or take maybe 1.09

      For now break out here and soon .82/.84 and so on and so forth like Marc Fabre would say lol

      Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:31 PM

    SLV tested two forks and a moving average before turning up the other day and now looks ready to conquer nearby resistance.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p69164884054&a=1078126175

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:50 PM
      Jan 11, 2022 11:08 PM

      My holdings of impact and Kootenay hope you’re right…..could see them close to doubling under that scenario

      Reply
        Jan 12, 2022 12:24 AM

        Can we throw Santacruz in there with those two

        Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:48 PM

      +26

      Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:53 PM

    At least short term, gold has the “all clear” from me (and I do expect it to turn into a much more important all-clear very soon)…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p86661158813

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:27 PM

    Dolly Varden owners have plenty of good technical reasons for optimism…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DV.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p53804266580&a=1095575417

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:47 PM

      Nice! I am one of those Dolly Varden shareholders and I’m getting more optimistic, especially after looking at that chart.

      Reply
    BDC
    Jan 11, 2022 11:45 PM

    Dollar Week : Gap Closure Ongoing : Where Next?
    https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/01/dollar-week_11.html

    Reply
    BDC
    Jan 11, 2022 11:03 PM

    SPQ : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
    Shorting NatGas Once More.
    Oil Launch Success.
    PMs Popping.

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:06 PM

    I had a good day today and I can’t help but feel it is consistent with Matthews projections. Might also be with Doc’s but I haven’t seen those charts. But I think they have been getting this right so far.

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:22 PM

    I continue to say the market structure has changed and although some of the players have not moved much the producers are on an absolute tear showing again and again that buy the dip is now

    Newmont
    Barrick
    Franco
    Iamgold
    And many more

    Developers are getting ready to move imo
    Explorers will get going with developers much faster once for example gdx breaks $34 and change and then they will get moving very quick once $39/$40 is broken.

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:57 PM

      The dollar looks like shit Matthew lol! But they always find a creative way to paint the pig pretty lol…

      By the way is Jerry ok? I have not heard from him in quite a while and he is the klan legend… Jerry are you there?

      By the way Matthew I noticed today on the setup that all stars are aligned and gold and miners are about to outperform $wtic.. not only that to all the readers more importantly hui is setup to outperform $wtic oil!

      That’s what my charts say but I will let Matthew respond and show his. The setup looks spectacular to say the least!

      Every time I checked history when oil underperforms gold/ hui miners explode up!

      Glen

      Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:07 PM

    I wish the PM stocks, breathwise, moved more vigorously with this gold move. It’s very disconcerting that they moved minimally and if gold tops out around 1840 the stocks will be lower then the last time it had a run up here.

    Reply
      Jan 11, 2022 11:06 PM

      Doc,

      I understand your worry but that’s the worry that makes everyone “ The sheeple” sell! Imo..
      We are in the climb the wall of worry scenario..

      Classic… I think that’s why this handle has been extended and it ain’t going lower because of duration. It’s make you feel “ that way”.. Doc this over extension and sideways movement for so long is poor hands to string hands thats what i think at least. Not investment advice.. i do value your opinion Doc!

      Beware glen is telling you machines are and can’t trick many.

      Glen

      Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:24 PM

    Ok…great calls on the gold trading cycle turn…I missed it Monday…I was behind in general and when it came around the open or 11ish i hesitated…Today I did a new one for me…I went into BITO…..I think I caught that one…Might be a backup play for gold miners for a while more…but i do not trust that and consider it some sort of derivative BS Bitcoin fraud…No idea..glta

    Reply
    Jan 11, 2022 11:16 PM

    Wonder which PM miner Floyd Odlum would choose today Jan.12/2022, given the value choices on offer. And don’t anybody say NVO. Even though it’s very cheap P/B, I’m eliminating it from the list, after its earlier performance.

    Reply
    BDC
    Jan 11, 2022 11:40 PM

    Michael Boutros : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhwUQsCIJW0
    00:00 Introduction
    03:00 – DXY (US Dollar Index)
    10:00 – Gold (XAU/USD)
    17:00 – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
    20:58 – US 10year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
    23:46 – Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
    26:20 – Crude Oil (WTI)
    34:00 – S&P 500 (SPX500)
    37:37 – Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
    39:30 – Ethereum (ETH/USD)
    41:50 – Euro (EUR/USD)
    44:16 – Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
    46:00 – New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
    48:07 – British Pound (GBP/USD)
    51:00 – Nasdaq (NDX)
    54:45 – Silver (XAG/USD)

    Reply
      BDC
      Jan 11, 2022 11:19 PM

      Note 20:58 as related to the Weekend Show:
      (BDC Jan 09, 2022 09:58) https://postimg.cc/K4k6yXMG.

      Reply
        BDC
        Jan 11, 2022 11:38 PM

        Inflation Reports (08:30): https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar.

        Reply
          Jan 12, 2022 12:18 AM

          ok just added DAILYFX to my crowded daily info folder…will need to do some prunning when I have some time..Thank you BDC…glta

          Reply
            BDC
            Jan 12, 2022 12:36 PM

            Michael Boutros is the finest price-only chart analyst I know of.
            He gives both sides of particular plays; rarely taking sides.
            John Kicklighter there is a good fundamental analyst.
            After working out some problems, I may try FX.

    Jan 11, 2022 11:34 PM

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