Ed Moya – All Eyes On Inflation Data This Week With Comments On Rising European Yields and Oil Prices

February 7, 2022

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us to look ahead to the key data coming this week, which is all about inflation. This data will immediately be tied to what the Fed will or won’t do in terms of tightening monetary policy. Also tied into the yield comments we look to Europe where yields are rising very quickly. Finally we touch on the slight pullback in oil prices to kick off the week.




Click here to follow along with Ed’s daily market note.


    Feb 07, 2022 07:33 PM

    Nice to see a green day in the Precious Metals mining stocks, with GDX up 2.93%, GDXJ up 4.06%, SIL up 4.52%, and SILJ up 6.44%.

    The Uranium stocks were up today in the green as well. The oil stocks were more flat on the day.

    Most of the weakness was in the Base Metals stocks today.

      Feb 07, 2022 07:39 PM

      I raised a bit more funds today selling a position into the sector strength and am now up to 4% dry powder. That’s still a pretty low amount proportionately, I do wish it was closer to 10-15% cash, but it’s enough that if we do see the PMs sell down before the rate hikes, like the scenario that Jordan and Doc have mentioned, then I’ll be able to pounce on any deals we see show up.

        Feb 07, 2022 07:55 PM

        Ex, we’re heading back up to the recent highs again for the PMs and the conventional markets should head up grudgingly for the rest of February and then watch out for the “Ides of March”. By the way I have a trading position in SLV for this move higher.

          Feb 07, 2022 07:18 PM

          My veins are telling me I think we will see compensation in the precious metal markets. I have been busy buying copper stocks with silver credits and hoping for the day I can sell them and live in a great house in Palm Beach, and stick my toes in the white luxurious sand, have a fleet of shining cars and loll at the ease of my life style. Don’t laugh, I just might get there. DT

            Feb 07, 2022 07:17 PM

            DT, I strongly believe that you’d be better off doing the reverse at this time. Silver hit a 4 year low versus copper in December and is a better risk-reward picture versus dollars, Canadian and US.
            $Silver vs $Copper monthly:

            Feb 07, 2022 07:54 PM

            DT I wish you great prosperity sir, and believe that your “great house in Palm Beach, and stick my toes in the white luxurious sand” is still quite possible and believe in you amigo.
            As for rotating out of Silver into Copper though, I’d agree with Matthew here that there is much more upside in many of the Silver mining stocks relative to the Copper mining stocks as a general theme, but of course, good drill results from any of the Jr explorers can move the needle regardless of the macro backdrop. Personally I greatly reduced down my Copper weighting and even number of stocks in 2021 to get more intense about the PMs in the late Fall of last year, so I’m more invested in the PMs outperforming the base metals in 2022, but we’ll see how it goes.

          Feb 07, 2022 07:01 PM

          Doc – Well if the PMs headed up to their recent highs in February, that would be fine by me, and I’d be able to trim a little more back into that rally to raise a bit more funds. I’d like to lighten up just a little on my gold stocks exposure and maybe some on Silver as well, as I do feel overexposed at present.
          I thought you had mentioned to beware of the “ides of February” this year in addition to the “ides of March”? Jordan is still expecting a pullback in the mining stocks leading up to the rate hikes in mid-March, so that would have coincided with your view of some more weakness in the shorter term.
          If we do see a rally in February leading up to the rate hikes, then Jordan is less bullish on the rate hikes being as big of a springboard for the PMs once the hikes get started, as he would prefer to see the PMs correct down leading up to that event, for more a capitulation move prior as a launching point higher.
          My question would be, what if we saw a rally in February that just got extended into March from the rate hikes? Wouldn’t that catch near-term bears wrong-footed, and isn’t that precisely what the market serves up so often, with most traders caught off-sides and chasing the wall of worry higher?

            Feb 07, 2022 07:24 PM

            Ex, 2 things concern me on the monthly charts: 1. The continued narrowing of the BB’s and 2. the beautiful wedge formation. Both mean only one thing: a breakout of pricing one way or another and it’s coming soon—first quarter of this year.

            Feb 07, 2022 07:36 PM

            Yes, there is definitely energy building after this long consolidation, and a big move coming Doc.
            Is there any case to be made that the move could actually be to the upside, instead of the downside from your perspective?
            It just seems to me like the Fed rate hiking cycle starting in March could be the catalyst to send it higher. It does seem like many are expecting the PMs to continue breaking down though based on their view of the longer duration monthly and quarterly charts. However, the annual charts paint a bit more bullish picture as Matthew pointed out a few weeks back.

    Feb 07, 2022 07:13 PM

    Is pro golf an option as your goal sounds very similar to their life style.

      Feb 07, 2022 07:29 PM

      I remain of the opinion that over the next few months that copper stocks will be toward higher levels. DT

        Feb 07, 2022 07:09 PM

        DT – While Copper is not my main focus at present, and I’ve admittedly dialed back my weightings and number of positions, I still have partial positions in Sierra Metals, Western Copper & Gold, Kodiak Copper Corp, Granite Creek Copper, and Northwest Copper, in addition to plays like McEwen Mining, Group Ten, and Generation Mining that have some healthy exposure to copper as well. Also I’ve got a stake in Nova Royalties that is all about copper & nickel royalties, so that’s another fishing pole in the water.
        It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Copper make an all time high eclipsing the $5 handle at one point if we keep seeing inflation numbers running hot, but I was kind of expecting the base metals to take a breather for a while first.

        Feb 07, 2022 07:52 PM

        Well as I pointed out this weekend I think this year will be a good one for the copper explorers like kodiak and it did hit $1.50 today at one point.

          Feb 07, 2022 07:55 PM

          Wolfster we have a Kodiak Copper interview going up tomorrow. Stay tuned…

            Feb 07, 2022 07:15 PM

            Look forward to it……I called for the news flow and promotion to begin after the $1.35 options were granted but this is even quicker than I anticipated..😎

    Feb 07, 2022 07:21 PM

    If this week is a good one for silver, I doubt it will come close to revisiting its September low in the future.

    Feb 07, 2022 07:28 PM
    Feb 07, 2022 07:39 PM

    The bears are going to be in big trouble if they don’t get control of silver this week.
    It looks great versus the 10 year UST at the moment.

    Feb 07, 2022 07:42 PM

    Maybe oil will manage to set a bull trap before topping but I wouldn’t bet on it.

      Feb 07, 2022 07:11 PM

      Oil is getting pretty lofty at present levels, so I see the upside as more limited when compared to other commodities at present. I thought the Uranium:Oil ratio chart that Steve Penny submitted to the KER that was posted on his Friday editorial was pretty telling as well.

        Feb 07, 2022 07:17 PM

        Having said that, it is possible that some of the Oil stocks still could run further if Oil just hangs up in the mid to high $80s or low $90s for a consolidation period, as many of the producers are just killing it at these levels.
        For example: We just posted an introduction call with InPlay Oil for example and they’ve been making hay while the sun is shining and continuing to expand their production profile and drill new wells and generate more funds flows, and pay down debt.

          Feb 07, 2022 07:34 PM

          In general the commodities have been racing higher and for good reason. Oil has been leading the charge and it being the biggest component of the CRB index has caused it to ratchet higher, but there are still plenty of supply/demand forces keeping the commodities well bid.
          Goldman Commodity Veteran Says He’s Never Seen A Market Like It
          Alex Longley and Francine Lacqua – Bloomberg News – 02/07/2022

          “Jeff Currie, the closely-followed head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now. ”

          “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

            Feb 07, 2022 07:07 PM

            Regardless of what year it is, I get a kick out all the experts who love to say that they’ve never seen a market like this. It happened a lot over ten years ago and Jim Puplava used to join in on the refrain. It’s funny because we are dealing with some big cycles, not just the obvious ones that the average guy can get his head around. They present the uniqueness of a given time as if it, in itself, should impress us.
            Are we on the cusp of a “crack-up boom” or are Currie’s words merely the sign of another significant intermediate top? My guess is the latter.
            Commodities in general look just risky as oil and if they all go a bit higher from here, they will just become riskier.
            CRB weekly:

            Feb 07, 2022 07:36 PM

            Good points Matthew. In general the very large cycles would show commodities having much more room to run to the upside, relative to most other asset classes. However, as you mentioned, a medium-term top soon in most commodities, followed by corrective move could be what is needed to build the energy for the next move higher longer-term.

            Feb 07, 2022 07:52 PM

            Much higher highs are coming for commodities but it could be a longer wait than we might expect.
            CRB:Gold weekly:

    Feb 07, 2022 07:30 PM

    Gold update!

    It’s been a long time since I’ve done one of these lol right folks?

    First and foremost I want all off you to know that my work is around the clock for over 16 years possibly or never as long as Matthew or others.

    However I need to tell you just like I did on the spot when the “ right shoulder failed “ before it failed and now i have some to say.

    Gold is headed up “ short term” Into a massive congestion zone also know as order blocks at $1830 were I strongly believe it will reverse. I’m sorry to be the barrier of this news but I’m just really an honest guy and that’s what my own charts tell me. This is a shake out up and down that will wipe most of you out. It will not do damage to the monthly or quarterly but this movement is looking for one thing only and it’s called liquidity. $1830 has some but I believe below $1775 opens up $1680 we’re the big money is parked. Can it get there? Possibly but I think $1775 stands a good shot at holding.

    We are going down from here to many monthly gaps


      Feb 07, 2022 07:40 PM

      Interesting outlook Glenfidish and thanks for sharing it.
      I was thinking you were more bullish expecting a breakout in the PMs to much higher levels in the short to medium term? What caused you to change to a more bearish outlook and that $1830 will keep pricing contained?
      Personally as long as the recent higher lows at $1721 and $1675 don’t break to the downside, then even a pullback into the mid $1700’s isn’t really that concerning to the medium to longer-term bullish thesis.

        Feb 07, 2022 07:09 PM

        I have got so many sitting on their lower Bollinger that if they break down much more they are going to be in some other miner’s chart.

          Feb 07, 2022 07:32 PM

          Well that wouldn’t be good now would it. 😉
          Yeah I guess there’s nothing stopping things from breaking down further, but often a move down to the lower bollinger band is where there will be a bounce higher. Why not see a move down that hits the lower BB and then a bounce higher from there?

            Feb 08, 2022 08:05 AM

            Yeah. How low can you go before its time to go up. Even an algo would get bored.

        Feb 08, 2022 08:50 AM

        Hey ex, overall my tone is not changing in regards to breaking out of this pennant very soon this quarter and it will be to the upside to many smart people I respect say the same.

        Secondly this bearishness I speak of is very short term and quick style move of which I would prefer to get it over and done with if it is going to happen. $1830 has previous order block resistance zones that has high liquidity.

        We can get close to it or slightly above and turn back down into fridays close. I reckon the market wants to go down one last time but quick and tap that liquidity below. Big money needs liquidity imo of course to get out of there positions. $1775 could possibly be what’s needed but I would not be shocked one bit to have a failed breakout in that pennant one my to reverse quickly. We have already seen manipulated breakouts in charts Graddy has shown a few and this failed breakout could bring gold a bit further down $1680 final spot not sure but that would cause the US dollar a failed breakout as well in the opposite direction on to reverse to the downside

          Feb 08, 2022 08:12 PM

          Thanks for that response back Glenfidish, and for unpacking a little further your outlook and key levels that you are watching.

      Feb 07, 2022 07:45 PM

      Good Glenfidish, that’s okay for me. In the meantime there could be more disruptive news from IAG and hopefully can buy it much lower around $2.00

      Feb 07, 2022 07:01 PM

      Glen, your projection would be consistent with the go nowhere past history with gold the past year. I generally see that as likely but suspect first it will visit december highs first and possibly november 1875 or so. The convential markets have a little more upside as well before another leg down.
      The gold producers are telling the tale as they have been for months with their underperformance, many retreating to annual lows while gold holds water. Also in spite of all the lavish expectation for silver it’s been a dud. I’m a third in with my three selected holding, which are basically going nowhere and look to dump before months end. Unless there’s a change in character, with producers outpacing any gold move up with some volume and enthusisam. Missing in spite of positive fundamentals with rising inflation, geopolitics, blah blah.

    Feb 07, 2022 07:34 PM

    Yes, I be raising cash into PM upside. Still have downside protection in SRTY

    Feb 07, 2022 07:58 PM

    I don’t know if the whole chart will show up but here we have “fractal” cup and handle patterns in gold versus the CPI. It’s a monthly chart spanning 50 years but I think no more than 40 will appear.

    Feb 08, 2022 08:42 AM

    Some up …some down. -92.30 at open. Free and fair markets at their best …every day.

      Feb 08, 2022 08:43 AM

      Added more Nobel Resources. Many issues such as jurisdiction and drill results, but waiting on further drill results. Price been abused quite a bit by blood sucking parasites.

        Feb 08, 2022 08:27 AM

        Bought Erdene for the 3rd time. Good drill results.

        Feb 08, 2022 08:39 AM

        Left over change went to a few shares of Honey Badger Silver. Previous good assays on grab samples, good investment by management and saw where Eric Sprott had a few shares also. He probably only has about 20 Mil more shares than I have, but its the thought that counts. Doesn’t count for much, but counts.

    Feb 08, 2022 08:41 AM

    Something to watch: my account loses about $2000 to $10,000 in the “after hours market”. That is a new thing that only has become apparent recently. That tells me managed money wants lower volume time frames… possibly to have more control over direction.

      Feb 08, 2022 08:45 PM

      More information of little value: If you remove Emerita from my account, the value so far today (30 mins before close) is: – $9