Jeff Christian – 4 Key Factors When Analyzing Gold – Interest Rates, Inflation, Geopolitics, and Investment Demand

February 16, 2022

Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joins us to share the 4 main catalysts for moving gold prices. These catalysts are geopolitics, interest rates, inflation and overall investment demand. We dive into each of these catalysts and where they are going. 


We start with geopolitics, specifically the war fears over Russia and Ukraine. From this topic we move to interest rates and inflation. These are usually tied together in the “real interest rate” narrative. Finally we spend a bit more time on the investment demand from different types of investors. This is an important topic to understand as major buyer have different strategies depending on price moves.




Click here to learn more about the CPM Group.

    Feb 16, 2022 16:11 PM

    I’m surprised no one here has mentioned Barrick’s billion dollar share buyback plan. It’s fantastic news for Barrick shareholders and for the sector in general because it alerts people to the fact that many gold producers are cheap and among the most appealing investments out there right now.

    Notice the wording of the title of the above article by the leftists dirtballs at Bloomberg:
    “Barrick Joins Big Mining’s Largesse With $1 Billion Buyback”

    That’s what you call neurolinguistic programming. By using the word “largesse” they are attempting to diminish the soundness of the plan and maybe even imply frivolity and corruption. I’d bet a lot of money that Bloomberg never used that word to describe giant conventional stocks that did indeed corruptly buy back shares, like at the top of the market when PEs were in bubble territory.
    Barrick is showing the world what a legitimate/sound/well-reasoned share buyback plan looks like.
    It also increased its regular quarterly cash dividend by 11% after its 10th straight quarterly earnings beat.
    This is going to put the eyes of a lot of deep pockets on the gold sector because big money will quickly understand that this is an appropriate use of Barrick’s cash.

      Feb 16, 2022 16:18 PM

      Time to circle back into the larger miners. Kinross used its cash to buy GBR and that stock is showing signs of life.

        Feb 16, 2022 16:35 PM

        That’s not a bad idea but I won’t be increasing my positions in larger companies since the juniors and mid tiers will outperform as usual. The Barrick news above will bring bids to the whole space and many senior miners themselves will bid up smaller producers and explorers as they seek to replace their mined ounces. In short, the economics of the sector has never looked better and is still improving. The senior producers have also never looked better. They went from fugly 10+ years ago to triple A. That’s fundamentally and technically.
        The move that’s starting now is going to be a big one.
        If ever there was a time to overweight the seniors this is it. Like I said above, I won’t be doing that but they are in stellar shape.

          Feb 16, 2022 16:43 PM

          The options premiums on Barrick are attractive. A short term strangle looks good.

            Feb 16, 2022 16:03 PM

            Options are a great way to get junior-like leverage from a safer investment.

      Feb 16, 2022 16:22 PM

      I’m not real familiar with GOLD but when I read that news, my first thought was of Boeing, when they spent 60B on the same game and I wondered if perhaps there wasn’t a better use of that huge cash position.
      They could have picked up some real cheap reserves for future mining. I agree that it is good for the industry to show the profits that are now possible in pms. Maybe we’ll begin to see some shifting of investments soon.

        Feb 16, 2022 16:02 PM

        Boeing is a great example of buyback corruption. The company was still buying its own shares in 2018-19 after shares rose 6-fold in 5 years and were objectively expensive. Then the company needed a massive government bailout. Both shareholders and taxpayers got screwed.
        The idea that there’s any such thing as too big to fail is a fraud that way too many buy regardless of their political party. It’s corrupt to the core in every single case. There’s no such thing as a “necessary evil” because anything that is truly necessary is never evil.
        Free/fair markets force sound behavior and government safety nets do the opposite. That applies at all levels from the individual on up to the mega corporation. Sound principles are perfectly scalable but unsound principles are as well. Which is why corruption permeates society from top to bottom (though those at the bottom believe themselves to be pristine which probably stems from their economic weakness and self-assessed victimhood).

      Feb 16, 2022 16:09 PM

      Re: Barrick. Its actually your own right wing paranoia that’s on display Mathew. However your Boeing commentary is on the money.

      When you leave out your delusions about America’s non existent left even you can can get it right.

        Feb 16, 2022 16:54 PM

        Lots of lefties on America’s left coast.

        Feb 16, 2022 16:00 PM

        Blazebs, the delusion is all yours because the basis of your beliefs is a lifetime of propaganda. Your kind has littered the landscape for over 50 years and still doesn’t have a clue what the left really is and what it is responsible for. On the flip side, and to be fair, most on the so-called right isn’t clear about it either.
        The fact is, the most powerful people on earth promote all things left because their goal is further centralization of power until even the thinnest facade of freedom is completely gone. You will obviously be blind no matter what happens because the old saying is true: garbage in, garbage out.
        Your claim that I am paranoid is as moronic as your earlier claim that I am a fascist but you have so little interest in learning and knowing anything that resorting to a more intelligent approach is not an option that’s available to you.
        You are horrifyingly ignorant. No amount of wealth can fix the unbearable shortcomings of your intellect or your character. I would remain richer than you if I lost all of my financial net worth and for that, I rejoice.

    Feb 16, 2022 16:46 PM

    I must admit that sometimes I am behind the curve when it comes to rotating into a position where the market is about to roar. It will take the public longer to position into securities and in particular gold securities when they realize how profitless and stale bonds are.

    This time I have been buying and I have been buying with what I hope is a canny eye to my own speculative future. Today I bought some Cabral Gold SYL-CBR. DT

    Feb 16, 2022 16:04 PM
    Feb 16, 2022 16:06 PM

    Gold looks great but not when priced in the gold miners, and that’s a good thing.

    Feb 16, 2022 16:39 PM

    Today’s close for OIH continues to show the validity of an Andrews fork resistance. If I still owned it, I would sell it to buy gold and silver miners.